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Coordinating variable speed limits and managed lanes at on-ramp bottlenecks: Policy design, performance, and implementation implications 在入口匝道瓶颈处协调可变速度限制和管理车道:政策设计,性能和实施影响
IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103972
Huan Jin , Xiang Zhu , Hui Jin , Zhehao Shen
Recurrent on-ramp bottlenecks remain a major source of delay and unreliability on urban freeways. We evaluate a coordinated variable speed limit (VSL) and managed lane (ML) policy that (i) meters mainline vehicle speeds by section and (ii) dynamically selects ML termini upstream and downstream so that ML remains outside the merge influence area to preserve weaving capacity. The research is established for fully connected and automated vehicles, where vehicles are expected to adapt to VSL and ML consistently. The model is solved with an option-critic controller of deep reinforcement learning, which selects VSL values for each mainline cell and on-ramp cell as well as ML termini at each control step, using measured road occupancy and vehicle speed states, where a comprehensive reward is developed to balance person delay and ramp queue dissipation. In microsimulation, coordinated VSL and ML reduces average vehicle delay, passenger delay, stop time, and CO2 by up to 57 %, 48 %, 42 %, and 37 %, respectively, compared with no-control baselines; gains are most robust at moderate flows between 4500 and 5500 veh/h and priority shares 20–60 %, while passenger delay improves most at 40–50 % priority share. Lane-placement experiments show that ML performs best on the outside (ramp-adjacent) lane with its termini offset from the merge area. Findings may translate into design guidance: keep ML openings out of the merge influence area and coordinate VSL value to tune inflow into the weaving zone.
经常性的匝道瓶颈仍然是城市高速公路延误和不可靠的主要原因。我们评估了一种协调可变速度限制(VSL)和管理车道(ML)策略,该策略(i)按路段测量干线车辆的速度,(ii)动态选择上游和下游的ML终端,使ML保持在合并影响区域之外,以保持编织能力。这项研究是针对完全联网和自动驾驶的汽车而进行的,在这种情况下,汽车有望始终适应VSL和ML。该模型使用深度强化学习的选项批判控制器来解决,该控制器使用测量的道路占用率和车辆速度状态,在每个控制步骤为每个主干道单元和入口匝道单元以及ML终端选择VSL值,其中开发了综合奖励来平衡人员延迟和匝道队列消耗。在微观模拟中,与无控制基线相比,协调的VSL和ML分别将平均车辆延误、乘客延误、停车时间和二氧化碳减少了57%、48%、42%和37%;当流量在4500至5500每小时之间时,收益最为强劲,优先份额为20 - 60%,而乘客延误在优先份额为40 - 50%时改善最大。车道放置实验表明,机器学习在外部(坡道附近)车道上表现最好,其终点偏离合并区域。研究结果可以转化为设计指导:将ML开口排除在合并影响区域之外,并协调VSL值以调整流入编织区域。
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引用次数: 0
Uncovering mode and parking preferences in the era of autonomous vehicles 揭示自动驾驶汽车时代的模式和停车偏好
IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103973
Andrés Rodríguez , Ricardo Daziano , José Luis Moura , Maira Delgado-Lindeman , Luigi dell’Olio
This study proposes a joint model for transport mode choice and parking strategy in dense urban environments, incorporating emerging scenarios derived from the introduction of autonomous vehicles, both private and shared. Based on a stated preference survey and a hybrid approach with latent variables, the factors that influence user decisions are analysed, considering traditional observable attributes (cost, travel time, parking search time) and attitudinal constructs (technological acceptance, perceived sustainability). The results show that cost and time remain key determinants, but new relevant variables emerge, such as recovery time and preferences for unconventional parking strategies. In particular, the model reveals that users with greater acceptance of AVs are more likely to prefer strategies such as returning the vehicle to the home or dropping off without parking. These findings provide valuable evidence for urban mobility planning and policy design that promotes efficient use of space and the transition to more sustainable forms of transport. The model developed allows for the anticipation of technology adoption scenarios and the targeting of differentiated strategies according to user profiles.
本研究提出了一个在密集城市环境中交通方式选择和停车策略的联合模型,该模型结合了引入私人和共享自动驾驶汽车所产生的新兴场景。基于既定的偏好调查和潜在变量的混合方法,考虑到传统的可观察属性(成本、旅行时间、停车搜索时间)和态度结构(技术接受度、感知可持续性),分析了影响用户决策的因素。结果表明,成本和时间仍然是关键的决定因素,但新的相关变量出现了,如恢复时间和对非常规停车策略的偏好。特别是,该模型显示,对自动驾驶汽车接受度更高的用户更有可能选择诸如将车辆归还家中或不停车的策略。这些发现为城市交通规划和政策设计提供了有价值的证据,以促进空间的有效利用和向更可持续的交通形式过渡。所开发的模型允许对技术采用场景进行预测,并根据用户配置文件制定差异化策略。
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引用次数: 0
Uncovering heterogeneous decision-making in truck tour organization: A shipment-based behavioral modeling approach 揭示卡车旅游组织中的异质决策:基于运输的行为建模方法
IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103958
Yitao Yang , Ali Nadi , Dongdong Song , Merve Seher Cebeci , Bin Jia , Michiel de Bok , Lóránt A. Tavasszy
The efficient movement of freight trucks is vital for modern logistics, where the organization of truck tours is central to optimizing supply chain operations and minimizing transportation costs. The truck tour patterns embody a complex interplay of diverse decision-making factors, reflecting the effectiveness of transport and logistics planning initiatives. Despite previous research efforts, an in-depth analysis of understanding how various decision-making factors, such as time of the day and product type, interact and their heterogeneous effects on shaping truck tour patterns is still lacking. This limitation hinders the development of more effective and sustainable strategies for freight transportation. In this paper, by leveraging large-scale carrier and shipment dataset in the Netherlands, we capture and analyze the heterogeneity of over 1000 diverse tour patterns of freight trucks in terms of temporal, spatial, and shipment requirements characteristics. We further introduce a novel modeling approach using random parameters logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances to uncover the heterogeneous effects of various factors on the choice of truck tour patterns. The model results highlight the multifaceted nature of truck travel behaviors, offering practical implications for logistics operations, policy development and freight planning.
货运卡车的高效移动对现代物流至关重要,在现代物流中,组织卡车旅行是优化供应链运营和最小化运输成本的核心。卡车旅行模式体现了多种决策因素的复杂相互作用,反映了运输和物流规划举措的有效性。尽管以前的研究努力,深入分析了解各种决策因素,如一天中的时间和产品类型,如何相互作用,以及它们对形成卡车旅行模式的异质影响,仍然缺乏。这一限制阻碍了制定更有效和可持续的货运战略。在本文中,通过利用荷兰的大型承运人和货运数据集,我们从时间、空间和货运需求特征方面捕获并分析了1000多种不同货运卡车旅行模式的异质性。我们进一步引入了一种新的建模方法,使用均值和方差均异质性的随机参数logit模型来揭示各种因素对卡车行驶模式选择的异质性影响。模型结果强调了卡车旅行行为的多面性,为物流操作、政策制定和货运规划提供了实际意义。
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引用次数: 0
High-speed rail connectivity and supply chain information symmetry: insights from the bullwhip effect 高铁互联互通与供应链信息对称:来自牛鞭效应的洞察
IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103953
Sen Yan , Kexin Ai
This study investigates the role of improved transportation accessibility in mitigating supply chain information asymmetry from the perspective of the bullwhip effect. Based on panel data of 426 cross-city supply chains in China from 2003 to 2021, this study exploits HSR connections between upstream and downstream firms as a quasi-natural experiment that endows supply chains with information channels, and employs a staggered difference-in-differences model combined with specific lexicon-based text mining to evaluate the impact of HSR on the bullwhip effect. We document three main findings: (1) HSR connections reduce the bullwhip effect by 0.0975 standard deviations, corresponding to approximately 32.7 % of the average level. (2) The underlying mechanism is that HSR enhances face-to-face interactions and information disclosure quality between suppliers and customers, thereby facilitating the exchange of both soft and hard information and alleviating information asymmetry. (3) Supply chain length and digitalization serve as key moderators: chains of moderate length (approximately 300–1200 km) benefit more from HSR, while advanced digitalization may dampen HSR's role in information reconciliation under certain conditions. This study offers a region-wide strategy for mitigating the bullwhip effect, enriches the literature on HSR's economic externalities, and advances the application of Soft and Hard Information Theory in supply chain management.
本文从牛鞭效应的角度探讨了交通可达性的改善对缓解供应链信息不对称的作用。本研究基于2003 - 2021年中国426个跨城市供应链的面板数据,将高铁上下游企业之间的联系作为赋予供应链信息渠道的准自然实验,采用交错差中差模型结合基于特定词典的文本挖掘来评估高铁对牛鞭效应的影响。研究发现:(1)高铁连接将牛鞭效应降低了0.0975个标准差,约为平均水平的32.7%。(2)其潜在机制是高铁提高了供应商和客户之间面对面的互动和信息披露质量,从而促进了软信息和硬信息的交换,缓解了信息不对称。(3)供应链长度和数字化是关键调节因子,中等长度的供应链(约300-1200 km)从高铁中获益更多,而高度数字化在一定条件下会抑制高铁的信息协调作用。本研究为缓解牛鞭效应提供了一种区域性策略,丰富了高铁经济外部性的研究文献,推进了软硬信息理论在供应链管理中的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying the air-rail intermodal fares based on dynamic connection times 基于动态连接时间的空铁联运票价量化
IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103959
Xu Zhang , Ketao Sun , Wei (Vera) Zhang
Air and rail intermodal services (AHISs) are transforming the competitive landscape by bridging gaps in medium- and long-haul markets, thereby fostering the development of a modern, integrated transportation system. Despite their potential, current air-rail intermodal transportation remains largely underexplored, particularly in terms of connections and fares. This paper proposes an integrated pricing strategy by quantifying the impact of fares on operator revenue and passenger connection costs under different arrival scenarios at Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport (ZHCC). The panel data are used including the daily data of estimated and actual times for departures and arrivals at ZHCC and its different departure and arrival airports and connected rail stations across January to July 2023. First, the distribution model of flight arrival delay times is analyzed. Then a bi-level programming model is established for different flight scenarios, i.e. early, on-time, and delayed. The upper-level aims to maximize operator revenue, while the lower-level seeks to minimize passengers' average connection costs. A heuristic algorithm based on sensitivity analysis is then applied to solve the model. To validate the model's feasibility, the Dalian-Zhengzhou-Fuyang line is used as a case study. The results indicate that the company can achieve maximum revenue by increasing the intermodal fare by 9.29 % for early flights, although this results in a 17.54 % increase in average connection costs for passengers compared to on-time arrivals. In the case of flight delays, maintaining the new fare close to the original fare, with a slight reduction of 0.55 %, is recommended to incentivize passengers to stick to their original travel plans. In theory, this is for the first time in academic research that quantifies the impact of fares on operator revenue and passenger connection costs under various arrival scenarios with bi-level programming. In practice, the quantified results provide intermodal operators with a clear guideline of optimizing their pricing strategy and improving the revenue management based on the dynamic passengers' arrival timeframes based on historical statistical data.
航空和铁路多式联运服务正在通过弥合中长途市场的差距来改变竞争格局,从而促进现代综合运输系统的发展。尽管有潜力,目前的空铁联运在很大程度上仍未得到充分开发,特别是在连接和票价方面。本文通过量化郑州新郑国际机场不同抵港情景下票价对运营商收入和旅客中转成本的影响,提出了综合定价策略。面板数据包括2023年1月至7月ZHCC及其不同的出发和到达机场和连接的火车站的估计和实际出发和到达时间的每日数据。首先,分析了航班到达延误时间的分布模型。然后,针对不同的飞行场景,即早、正点和延误,建立了双层规划模型。上层的目标是使运营商收益最大化,下层的目标是使乘客的平均连接成本最小化。然后采用基于灵敏度分析的启发式算法对模型进行求解。为验证该模型的可行性,以大郑阜阳线为例进行了分析。结果表明,公司可以通过将早期航班的多式联运票价提高9.29%来实现最大收益,尽管这导致乘客的平均转机成本与准时到达相比增加了17.54%。在航班延误的情况下,建议保持新票价接近原票价,略微降低0.55%,以激励乘客坚持原旅行计划。理论上,这是学术研究中首次采用双层规划量化不同到达场景下票价对运营商收入和乘客接驳成本的影响。在实践中,量化结果为多式联运运营商基于历史统计数据的动态乘客到达时间框架优化定价策略和改进收益管理提供了明确的指导。
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引用次数: 0
From green hydrogen Hubs to electric vehicle Highways: Crafting feasible sustainable solutions for clean transportation 从绿色氢能源枢纽到电动汽车高速公路:为清洁交通制定可行的可持续解决方案
IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103954
Delong Zhu , Sajid Ali , Raima Nazar , Muhammad Khalid Anser
The global transportation sector is responsible for nearly a quarter of global carbon emissions, and finding cleaner mobility solutions is essential. By examining how budget allocations for green hydrogen technology influence the adoption of electric vehicles, this research addresses a key sustainability challenge: integrating complementary low-carbon technologies into transportation systems. Despite growing interest in both hydrogen and electric vehicles, little is known about how uneven funding levels shape their joint diffusion across different economic contexts. To fill this gap, we pose the question: How do variations in green hydrogen technology budgets impact electric vehicle stock across ten leading adopters? We address this issue using the Quantile-on-Quantile method, transforming annual R&D and electric vehicle data (2012–2023) into a monthly series, testing for nonlinearity and structural breaks, and estimating asymmetric, quantile-specific effects. The findings reveal that green hydrogen budgets significantly boost electric vehicle adoption in most selected nations, uncover strong positive effects at upper quantiles, and highlight mixed patterns in the UK and France. This asymmetric insight provides policymakers with a nuanced framework for tailoring incentives for hydrogen and electric vehicles. It contributes to the sustainable transport literature by demonstrating the added value of Quantile-on-Quantile analysis in assessing joint technology diffusion.
全球交通运输部门的碳排放量占全球碳排放量的近四分之一,寻找更清洁的交通解决方案至关重要。通过研究绿色氢技术的预算分配如何影响电动汽车的采用,本研究解决了一个关键的可持续性挑战:将互补的低碳技术整合到交通系统中。尽管人们对氢燃料汽车和电动汽车的兴趣日益浓厚,但人们对不平衡的资金水平如何影响它们在不同经济背景下的共同扩散知之甚少。为了填补这一空白,我们提出了一个问题:绿色氢技术预算的变化如何影响十大领先采用者的电动汽车库存?我们使用分位数对分位数的方法来解决这个问题,将年度研发和电动汽车数据(2012-2023)转换为月度序列,测试非线性和结构断裂,并估计不对称的分位数特定效应。研究结果显示,绿色氢预算在大多数选定的国家显著促进了电动汽车的采用,在较高的分位数上发现了强烈的积极影响,并突出了英国和法国的混合模式。这种不对称的见解为政策制定者提供了一个微妙的框架,以调整氢燃料汽车和电动汽车的激励措施。它通过展示分位数对分位数分析在评估联合技术扩散方面的附加价值,为可持续交通文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the impact of population migration on transport carbon emissions 人口迁移对交通碳排放的影响研究
IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103957
Jiajia Li , Siyuan Li
To support China's “double carbon” goals and low-carbon transport development, this study empirically examines the impact and mechanisms of population migration on transport carbon emissions using spatial econometric and mediation effect models with panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2013–2020). Results show that both intra-provincial and inter-provincial migration significantly increase local transport carbon emissions, with significant negative spatial spillover effects on neighboring provinces. Regionally, migration reduces emissions in eastern China but increases them in central and western regions. Mechanism tests reveal heterogeneous pathways: urban population size mediates only inter-provincial migration; transport intensity exerts a consistent suppression effect for both types; and green technology progress functions as a negative mediator, indicating that migration may crowd out innovation and thereby raise emissions. This study provides targeted policy implications for region-specific low-carbon transport governance and coordinated development of population migration and emission reduction.
为了支持中国的“双碳”目标和低碳交通发展,本研究利用中国30个省份(2013-2020年)的面板数据,运用空间计量和中介效应模型实证检验了人口迁移对交通运输碳排放的影响及其机制。结果表明:省内和省际迁移均显著增加了地方交通碳排放,且对邻近省份具有显著的负空间溢出效应;从区域上看,移民减少了东部地区的排放量,但增加了中西部地区的排放量。机制检验揭示了异质性路径:城市人口规模仅介导省际迁移;输运强度对两种类型的抑制作用一致;绿色技术进步作为负向中介,表明移民可能排挤创新,从而增加排放。本研究为区域低碳交通治理和人口迁移与减排协调发展提供了有针对性的政策启示。
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引用次数: 0
Performance evaluation of major world container ports in the post-pandemic era: The 6th generation ports model with smart ports 后疫情时代世界主要集装箱港口绩效评价——基于智能港口的第六代港口模型
IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103950
Zhao-Yu Song , Stephen Pettit , Yingli Wang , Guanqiong Ye , Cheng-Wei Lin
The port sector faces both challenges and opportunities in digital transformation and decarbonization in the post-pandemic era. To address these issues, the Sixth Generation Port (6 GP) model with smart ports comprising six aspects and 14 criteria was proposed, iteratively refined, and validated. In order to extend the test scope and assess the applicability of the 6 GP model, this study aims to evaluate the performance of major world container ports, namely the Port of Singapore, Shanghai, Busan, Hong Kong, and Rotterdam, by applying the 6 GP model with smart ports. An innovative hybrid methodology integrating CFPR, MOORA, and VIKOR was employed to explore the business needs and development priorities of port stakeholders and to assess each port's performance with reference to the 6 GP model. The test results indicate that the Port of Singapore, Rotterdam, and Shanghai performanc, with Asian container ports achieved better performance in "service" and "smart port governance system and policy". Specifically, Shanghai has emphasized automation optimization to facilitate the seamless cargo and vessel flows, while Rotterdam achieved significant performance in digitalization and decarbonization by fostering a smart port–city symbiosis. The contribution of this study lies in theoretical, methodological, and empirical aspects. i) Theoretically, it validates the applicability of the 6 GP model, enriching the existing literature on Port Devolution Theory by integrating digitalization and decarbonization into the 6 GP model; ii) Methodologically, it applies a novel hybrid CFPR–MOORA–VIKOR framework to enhance multi-criteria decision-making in port studies; iii) Empirically, it offers a comparative evaluation of container ports in both Asia and Europe, providing actionable insights for policymakers and port managers, and advocates collaborative action among different stakeholders.
大流行后时代,港口部门面临数字化转型和脱碳的挑战和机遇。为了解决这些问题,提出了包含六个方面和14个标准的智能端口的第六代端口(6 GP)模型,并对其进行了迭代改进和验证。为了扩大测试范围和评估6 GP模型的适用性,本研究旨在通过将6 GP模型应用于智能港口,对新加坡港、上海港、釜山港、香港港和鹿特丹港等世界主要集装箱港口的绩效进行评估。采用一种整合CFPR、MOORA和VIKOR的创新混合方法来探索港口利益相关者的业务需求和发展优先事项,并参照6 GP模型评估每个港口的绩效。测试结果表明,新加坡港、鹿特丹港和上海港表现较好,亚洲集装箱港口在“服务”和“智慧港口治理体系和政策”方面表现较好。具体而言,上海强调自动化优化,以促进货物和船舶的无缝流动,而鹿特丹通过培育智能港口和城市的共生关系,在数字化和脱碳方面取得了显著成绩。本研究的贡献在于理论、方法和实证三个方面。i)理论上验证了6gp模型的适用性,通过将数字化和脱碳整合到6gp模型中,丰富了现有港口下放理论的文献;ii)在方法上,它采用一种新的混合CFPR-MOORA-VIKOR框架来加强港口研究中的多标准决策;iii)在实证方面,它对亚洲和欧洲的集装箱港口进行了比较评估,为政策制定者和港口管理者提供了可操作的见解,并倡导不同利益相关者之间的合作行动。
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引用次数: 0
Pestle analysis of digitalization in aviation safety 航空安全数字化的杵状分析
IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103945
Jale Kahraman , Didem Rodoplu Şahin
Aviation sector is undergoing a radical transformation in line with the digitalization offered by Industry 4.0. Artificial intelligence, big data analytics, the Internet of Things (IoT) and sensor-based systems provide significant contributions in critical areas such as increasing flight safety, improving maintenance processes and managing crisis moments. Simulations based on augmented and virtual reality technologies reduce human error by providing effective learning environments in the training of pilots and technical personnel. On the other hand, digital air traffic management and satellite-based navigation systems optimize collision prevention and airspace efficiency. These technologies both increase operational efficiency and contribute to environmental sustainability goals. However, as digitalization progresses, the interconnectedness of systems has brought new security threats such as cyber attacks, data breaches and technical failures. In particular, inadequate regulations and incompatibilities in international standards make it difficult to use these technologies safely and widely. This study examined technological components and operational processes within the framework of the Aviation 4.0 concept and evaluated the effects of digitalization on aviation safety using literature review and PESTLE analysis and word frequency analysis methods. The results show that digital technologies offer significant opportunities to the sector, but structural risks and regulatory gaps need to be taken into account for a sustainable security management.
航空业正在经历一场与工业4.0所带来的数字化相一致的彻底变革。人工智能、大数据分析、物联网(IoT)和基于传感器的系统在提高飞行安全、改进维护流程和管理危机时刻等关键领域做出了重大贡献。基于增强和虚拟现实技术的仿真通过为飞行员和技术人员的培训提供有效的学习环境来减少人为错误。另一方面,数字空中交通管理和卫星导航系统优化了防碰撞和空域效率。这些技术既提高了运营效率,又有助于实现环境可持续性目标。然而,随着数字化的发展,系统的互联性带来了网络攻击、数据泄露和技术故障等新的安全威胁。特别是,规章不充分和国际标准不兼容,使这些技术难以安全和广泛使用。本研究考察了航空4.0概念框架内的技术组件和操作流程,并使用文献综述、PESTLE分析和词频分析方法评估了数字化对航空安全的影响。结果表明,数字技术为该行业提供了重大机遇,但要实现可持续的安全管理,需要考虑结构性风险和监管缺口。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial evolution of liner bunkering hubs in Asia–Europe: Green fuel adoption under demand and fuel price uncertainty 亚欧班轮加油枢纽的空间演变:需求和燃料价格不确定性下的绿色燃料采用
IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103956
Kang Chen , Xu Yi , Xu Xin , Hongjun Shan
The global challenge of decarbonizing container liner shipping has prompted the increased adoption of green methanol. This paper examines how the widespread use of green methanol shapes the spatial distribution of bunkering hubs along Asia–Europe liner shipping routes. We propose an analytical framework that incorporates a multinomial Logit model and a stochastic programming (SP) model. The former estimates the container transportation demand of different routes, whereas the latter optimizes the operational strategies (i.e., fleet size, liner sailing speed, bunkering management strategies, and slot allocation) of liner companies while considering the carbon tax and uncertainties associated with transportation demand and fuel price. To solve the SP model, a sample average approximation technique is applied to address the random variables, and a piecewise linear approximation method is used to handle the nonlinear constraints in the model. Using real-world operational data from 37 Asia–Europe routes, we create three scenarios to explore the evolution of bunkering hubs in Eurasia. The results reveal that the lower energy density of green methanol shifts liner bunkering from centralized hubs such as Port of Singapore to a multi-layered network, elevating ports such as Port of Qingdao and Port of Rotterdam. A 15 % decrease in the price of green fuel in China has resulted in a 72 % reduction in the market share of Port of Singapore, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of East Asian hubs.
脱碳集装箱班轮运输的全球挑战促使越来越多地采用绿色甲醇。本文考察了绿色甲醇的广泛使用如何影响亚欧班轮航线上加油枢纽的空间分布。我们提出了一个包含多项Logit模型和随机规划(SP)模型的分析框架。前者对不同航线的集装箱运输需求进行估计,后者在考虑碳税以及运输需求和燃料价格相关的不确定性的情况下,对班轮公司的运营策略(即船队规模、班轮航速、加油管理策略和舱位分配)进行优化。在求解SP模型时,采用样本平均逼近法对随机变量进行求解,采用分段线性逼近法对模型中的非线性约束进行处理。利用来自37条亚欧航线的真实运营数据,我们创建了三个场景来探索欧亚大陆加油中心的演变。结果表明,绿色甲醇较低的能量密度将班轮加油从新加坡港等集中枢纽转移到多层网络,提升了青岛港和鹿特丹港等港口。中国的绿色燃料价格下降了15%,导致新加坡港的市场份额减少了72%,从而增强了东亚枢纽的竞争力。
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Transport Policy
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