Transport Policy最新文献_第3页

Electric bus system design considering power grid disruptions 考虑电网中断的电动客车系统设计

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104015

Aman Sharma, N. Nezamuddin

Transit operators worldwide are transitioning to electric buses to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This presents new challenges for operators and policymakers, as electric buses rely on electricity, thereby increasing the importance of a city's power grid infrastructure. Any power grid failure can potentially disrupt the advertised schedule of the electric bus service, leading to unmet passenger demand. This study proposes a two-step methodology for designing an electric bus system that considers the relationship between a city's power grid and its electric bus system. The proposed framework is formulated as a Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP) and attempts to minimize the worst-case trip losses in the network with the possibility of spatial failure of power grid substations in a city. The framework is then applied to the bus and power grid network of Delhi, India. Due to the complexity induced by a large number of binary variables present in the formulation, local branching is utilized to solve the problem efficiently. Results indicate that the proposed methodology can reduce the potential trip loss in the network by 30 % with marginal additional costs from a cost-optimal electric bus system. Moreover, case study analyses lead to policy recommendations for reliable electric bus system designs, demonstrating the need of a departure from typical cost-optimal design.

世界各地的公交运营商正在向电动公交车过渡，以减少温室气体排放。这给运营商和政策制定者带来了新的挑战，因为电动公交车依赖电力，从而增加了城市电网基础设施的重要性。任何电网故障都有可能扰乱电动巴士服务的宣传时间表，导致乘客需求得不到满足。本研究提出一种考虑城市电网与电动巴士系统之间关系的两步法设计电动巴士系统。提出的框架是一个混合整数线性规划（MILP），并试图在城市电网变电站空间故障的可能性下最小化网络中最坏情况下的行程损失。然后将该框架应用于印度德里的公共汽车和电网网络。由于公式中存在大量的二元变量所导致的复杂性，利用局部分支来有效地解决问题。结果表明，所提出的方法可以将网络中潜在的行程损失减少30%，并且具有成本最优的电动公交系统的边际额外成本。此外，案例研究分析可为可靠的电动巴士系统设计提供政策建议，证明需要脱离典型的成本优化设计。

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引用次数: 0

Mapping the green aviation: A bibliometric analysis of green aviation research (1900–2025) 绘制绿色航空：绿色航空研究文献计量学分析（1900-2025）

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104014

Fangyu Cao , Chunan Wang , Shangrong Chen

Driven by the urgent challenge of climate change, sustainable aviation research has witnessed explosive growth since 2015. This study employs bibliometric methods to analyze 8081 documents from the Web of Science Core Collection (1900–2025). It maps the global distribution of research forces, characterizes the foundational knowledge structure, and innovatively integrates an economic and management perspective to scrutinize the barriers to commercialization. The findings reveal that global research forces are undergoing a profound transformation from Western dominance to a diversified landscape. In terms of knowledge evolution, the research focus has fundamentally shifted from environmental impact assessment to the exploration of specific technological solutions, eventually converging into two parallel trajectories: the SAF and the Electrification. By conducting a economic analysis, this study specifically highlights the socio-economic feasibility constraints hindering the SAF pathway. Based on these findings, this study proposes several research directions and policy implications.

自2015年以来，在气候变化这一紧迫挑战的推动下，可持续航空研究出现了爆炸式增长。本研究采用文献计量学方法对Web of Science核心馆藏（1900-2025）8081篇文献进行分析。它描绘了研究力量的全球分布，描绘了基础知识结构的特征，并创新地整合了经济和管理的视角来审视商业化的障碍。研究结果表明，全球研究力量正在经历从西方主导向多元化格局的深刻转变。在知识演进方面，研究重点从环境影响评价根本转向具体技术解决方案的探索，最终趋同为两个平行的轨迹：SAF和电气化。通过进行经济分析，本研究特别强调了阻碍SAF路径的社会经济可行性约束。在此基础上，本研究提出了若干研究方向和政策启示。

引用次数: 0

A taste of the commute-free life: Post Covid-19 remote work expectations, travel time and commute modes 体验无通勤生活：新冠肺炎疫情后的远程工作预期、出行时间和通勤模式

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104012

Ugo Lachapelle , Richard Shearmur , Priscilla Ananian

The pandemic-induced experience of remote work for many office workers is changing the relationship to the workplace. Several factors can create push and pull forces on remote work expectations: return-to-work mandates, home-office feasibility and habits. Daily commuting also constitutes a friction associated with workplace presence, and work from home (WFH) desirability.

We assess the relationship between mode-specific commute duration and expectation to WFH more post-pandemic. We hypothesize that workers with longer commute before Covid-19 that were able to reduce their travel during the pandemic through WFH are more likely to expect to WFH more than they did before Covid-19 once the pandemic has receded. This may vary depending on commuting mode.

In the summer of 2020, we conducted a phone survey of Montréal (Canada) workers to understand the impact of Covid-19 on work organization and work locations (n = 1126). The survey included recall measures of WFH, commuting mode and commute time in February 2020, before initial lock-downs. It also included a qualitative expectation of WFH post Covid-19. The relationship between mode-specific commute duration and expectation to WFH more post-pandemic is assessed using a multinomial logit model. Ability to telework, having experienced telework, enjoyment of WFH and socio-demographic characteristics are key control variables. New adoption of WFH during the pandemic provided a quasi-experimental setting to study the impact of mode-specific commute times on WFH expectations.

For auto and transit users, higher pre-pandemic travel time was associated with expecting to WFH more than pre-Covid-19. Improving commuting conditions for transit commuters may support a return to pre-pandemic mode shares for those returning to the office. Active transport commute time was not associated with expecting to WFH more, likely (especially for walkers) because of the expected enjoyment derived from active transport.

对许多办公室职员来说，疫情引发的远程工作经历正在改变他们与工作场所的关系。有几个因素会影响人们对远程工作的期望：重返工作岗位的要求、在家办公的可行性和习惯。日常通勤也构成了与工作场所的存在和在家工作（WFH）的愿望相关的摩擦。我们评估了特定模式的通勤时间与大流行后对WFH的预期之间的关系。我们假设，在Covid-19之前通勤时间较长的工人，在大流行期间能够通过WFH减少旅行，一旦大流行消退，他们更有可能期望比Covid-19之前更多的WFH。这可能因通勤方式而异。2020年夏天，我们对montrsamal （Canada）员工进行了电话调查，以了解Covid-19对工作组织和工作地点的影响（n = 1126）。该调查包括在最初的封锁之前，2020年2月对上下班时间、通勤方式和通勤时间的召回措施。它还包括对Covid-19后WFH的定性预期。使用多项logit模型评估特定模式通勤时间与大流行后WFH增加预期之间的关系。远程办公能力、有远程办公经历、享受工作时间和社会人口特征是关键的控制变量。大流行期间新采用的通勤时间为研究特定模式通勤时间对通勤时间预期的影响提供了准实验环境。对于汽车和交通用户来说，与covid -19之前相比，大流行前更长的旅行时间与预期的WFH相关。改善过境通勤者的通勤条件可能有助于那些返回办公室的人恢复到大流行前的模式。主动交通通勤时间与期望更多的WFH无关，可能（特别是步行者）是因为期望从主动交通中获得的享受。

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引用次数: 0

Street space reallocation under austerity: The case of low traffic neighbourhoods in the UK 紧缩政策下的街道空间重新分配：英国低交通街区的案例

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104013

Ersilia Verlinghieri , Rachel Aldred , Harrie Larrington-Spencer , Anna Goodman , Emma R. Lawlor , Luz Navarro , Haneen Khreis , Anthony Laverty

Street space reallocation measures, such as Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs), have attracted substantial controversy in the UK and elsewhere, for instance around reported poor engagement with residents and local actors. However, limited attention has been given to the political-economic context shaping scheme implementation, such as the impacts of reduced resources or of the use of short-term, contingent funding. Based on 37 interviews with officers and councillors who implemented or sought to implement LTNs in 12 English local authorities, and part of a larger project investigating the impacts of LTNs in London, this paper addresses this gap. It shows how challenges to design, engagement and delivery of LTNs are often linked to funding scarcity and processes of projectification, advancing the literature on transport governance and controversy.

街道空间重新分配措施，如低交通街区（ltn），在英国和其他地方引起了很大的争议，例如，据报道，与居民和当地行动者的接触不足。但是，对影响计划执行的政治-经济背景，例如资源减少或使用短期或有资金的影响，注意有限。基于对在12个英国地方当局实施或寻求实施ltn的官员和议员的37次访谈，以及调查ltn在伦敦的影响的一个更大项目的一部分，本文解决了这一差距。它展示了ltn的设计、参与和交付面临的挑战通常与资金短缺和项目流程有关，推动了交通治理和争议方面的文献。

引用次数: 0

Price cap deregulation and competitive entry: Evidence from China’s airline markets 放宽价格上限与竞争进入：来自中国航空市场的证据

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104011

Wei Wan , Dongliang Pang , Jingjie Xiang

Price caps are widely adopted to restrain the abuse of market power, but their impact on firm entry is underexplored. This paper investigates the effect of price cap removal on competitive entry based on the practice of China’s airfare cap deregulation. Evidence suggests that the elimination of price caps significantly increases the number of airlines at the flight route level, as it leads to a larger number of new entrants. We further summarize the patterns of airline entry, and find that the deregulation encourages the entry of both state-owned and private airlines, and helps to improve service availability in remote areas. The positive effect on competitive entry is more pronounced on routes not served by direct HSR. Therefore, in the contestable sector of air industry, concerns that incumbent carriers may exercise excessive market power under deregulation appear to be less warranted.

价格上限被广泛用于限制滥用市场力量，但其对企业进入的影响尚未得到充分探讨。本文基于中国放开机票价格上限的实践，考察了取消价格上限对竞争进入的影响。有证据表明，取消价格上限大大增加了航线层面的航空公司数量，因为这导致了更多的新进入者。我们进一步总结了航空公司的进入模式，发现放松管制鼓励了国有和私营航空公司的进入，并有助于提高偏远地区的服务可获得性。对竞争进入的积极影响在没有直接高铁服务的路线上更为明显。因此，在航空工业的竞争性部门，担心现有承运人可能在放松管制下行使过度的市场力量似乎不那么有根据。

引用次数: 0

Exploring bus service demand in emerging business formats: A text mining analysis 探索新兴业务格式中的总线服务需求：文本挖掘分析

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104010

Chunqin Zhang , Waner Li , Jiachen Shou , Hongbin Ma , Junyan Xiang , Martin Skitmore , Xian Liu , Donglei Rong , Wenbin Yao

This study examines passenger demand characteristics for bus services and offers policy optimization recommendations derived from these insights. An analysis of 6403 valid social media comments from January 2023 to December 2024, utilizing Gibbs Sampling Dirichlet Multinomial Mixture topic modeling and the Jaccard distance metric, identified four core themes: “travel experience,” “operational efficiency,” “economy,” and “environmental impact,” which were further categorized into twelve sub-themes. The findings reveal that passengers prioritize “travel experience” (encompassing driver attitude, cleanliness, seat comfort, and congestion) and “operational efficiency” (including schedule density, punctuality, route optimization, and peak-hour traffic management), followed by “economy” (ticket pricing and the senior free-ride policy) and “environmental impact” (low-carbon features and battery recycling). Based on the findings, several policy recommendations are put forward, including the enhancement of the in-vehicle environment, the implementation of comprehensive driver training programs aimed at improving the passenger experience, the optimization of scheduling and the promotion of real-time bus tracking systems to boost operational efficiency, the adjustment of the fare structure to ensure greater equity, and the refinement of management practices for new energy buses to support environmental sustainability.

本研究检视巴士服务的乘客需求特征，并根据这些见解提出政策优化建议。对2023年1月至2024年12月期间的6403条有效社交媒体评论进行了分析，利用吉布斯抽样狄利克雷多项式混合主题模型和Jaccard距离度量，确定了四个核心主题：“旅行体验”、“运营效率”、“经济”和“环境影响”，并将其进一步分为12个子主题。调查结果显示，乘客优先考虑的是“出行体验”（包括司机态度、清洁度、座位舒适度和拥堵程度）和“运营效率”（包括时刻表密度、准点率、路线优化和高峰时段交通管理），其次是“经济性”（票价和高级免费乘车政策）和“环境影响”（低碳特性和电池回收）。基于调查结果，提出了几项政策建议，包括改善车内环境，实施旨在改善乘客体验的综合驾驶员培训计划，优化调度和推广实时公交跟踪系统以提高运营效率，调整票价结构以确保更大的公平性，改进新能源客车的管理实践，以支持环境的可持续性。

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引用次数: 0

Prioritizing sustainable port strategies for IMO 2030 compliance: A DEMATEL-ANP-based policy framework 优先考虑符合IMO 2030的可持续港口战略：基于dematel - anp的政策框架

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103975

Mehmet Serdar Celik

The study develops a systems-based decision framework to prioritise sustainable port management measures within the framework of the 2023 International Maritime Organization (IMO) Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Strategy and Annex 15. Using an integrated DEMATEL–ANP approach, causal relationships among nineteen port-level measures were identified, and their relative priorities were systematically evaluated across five dimensions: infrastructural transformation, global port development, capacity building, inter-sectoral collaboration, and green and low-carbon innovation. The DEMATEL results reveal that governance and collaboration clusters exert the strongest causal influence on the network, while financial and technical support mechanisms act as key driving enablers. The ANP results indicate that port modernisation for GHG reduction, storage capacity for low-carbon fuels, and joint emission reduction programmes hold the highest overall priorities, reflecting their systemic leverage in accelerating port-level decarbonisation. Based on these findings, the paper contributes to maritime decarbonisation research and policy practice in three tangible ways: (i) it reframes the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy and Annex 15 from a port governance perspective, providing a structured five-cluster framework that operationalises nineteen port-focused measures; (ii) it advances methodological practice by integrating DEMATEL and ANP to quantify interdependencies and derive robust, internally consistent prioritisation outcomes; and (iii) it delivers an evidence-based decision-support tool that identifies the most influential decarbonisation levers particularly port modernisation, fuel storage infrastructure, and joint emission reduction schemes offering concrete guidance for policymakers, port authorities, and climate finance institutions in directing limited resources toward high-impact interventions.

该研究开发了一个基于系统的决策框架，以便在2023年国际海事组织（IMO）温室气体（GHG）战略和附件15的框架内优先考虑可持续港口管理措施。采用综合DEMATEL-ANP方法，确定了19项港口级措施之间的因果关系，并从基础设施转型、全球港口发展、能力建设、部门间合作以及绿色和低碳创新五个方面系统评估了它们的相对优先级。DEMATEL的研究结果显示，治理和协作集群对网络的因果影响最大，而金融和技术支持机制则是关键的驱动因素。ANP结果表明，港口温室气体减排现代化、低碳燃料储存能力和联合减排计划具有最高的总体优先级，反映了它们在加速港口脱碳方面的系统性作用。基于这些发现，本文以三种切实可行的方式为海事脱碳研究和政策实践做出了贡献：(i)从港口治理的角度重构了2023年IMO温室气体战略和附件15，提供了一个结构化的五集群框架，可实施19项以港口为重点的措施；（ii）通过整合DEMATEL和ANP来量化相互依赖性，并得出稳健的、内部一致的优先级结果，从而推进方法学实践；（iii）它提供了一个基于证据的决策支持工具，该工具确定了最具影响力的脱碳杠杆，特别是港口现代化、燃料储存基础设施和联合减排计划，为政策制定者、港口当局和气候融资机构提供了具体指导，以便将有限的资源用于高影响力的干预措施。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring community public budget preferences for transport electrification: Evidence from a contingent budget allocation study in New South Wales, Australia 探索社区公共预算对交通电气化的偏好：来自澳大利亚新南威尔士州偶然预算分配研究的证据

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104009

Andrea Pellegrini, John M. Rose, David A. Hensher

The allocation of funds across government functions often reflects political priorities that do not align with public expectations. This paper employs a contingent allocation method in which respondents are required to distribute a fixed budget across 12 different potential project types. The main goal of this research is to elicit community priorities for public spending with a specific focus on transport electrification. Based on a sample of 727 residents from the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, our findings indicate that transport electrification is not regarded as a majority priority relative to initiatives aimed at improving healthcare, utilities, roads and education. Further, we find that the prioritisation of decarbonising transport services is heavily influenced by households' financial circumstances: individuals experiencing financial distress are less inclined to allocate substantial public resources to curbing transport-related emissions. These results suggest that policy actions should be designed to ensure that climate transition measures do not disproportionately burden financially vulnerable communities.

政府职能部门之间的资金分配往往反映了与公众期望不一致的政治优先事项。本文采用或有分配方法，要求受访者在12种不同的潜在项目类型中分配固定预算。这项研究的主要目标是引出公共支出的社区优先事项，特别关注交通电气化。基于来自澳大利亚新南威尔士州（NSW）的727名居民的样本，我们的研究结果表明，相对于旨在改善医疗保健、公用事业、道路和教育的举措，交通电气化并未被视为主要优先事项。此外，我们发现运输服务脱碳的优先次序受到家庭财务状况的严重影响：经历财务困境的个人不太倾向于分配大量公共资源来遏制与运输相关的排放。这些结果表明，政策行动的设计应确保气候转型措施不会不成比例地给经济脆弱的社区带来负担。

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引用次数: 0

Measuring public willingness to pay for Urban Air Mobility: A national contingent valuation study in South Korea 衡量公众为城市空中交通付费的意愿：韩国的一项国家条件评估研究

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104007

Sungmin Ko , Seonghyeon Kim , Jungwoo Cho , Kyuho Maeng

Urban air mobility (UAM) has emerged as a promising solution to urban congestion and accessibility challenges. However, public valuation of UAM ecosystem development remains underexplored. This study estimates the perceived economic benefits of establishing a national UAM infrastructure in South Korea using a double-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation method based on a representative household survey. Results indicate that the average household is willing to pay KRW 37,784 (USD 27.22) annually to support UAM development, translating to an aggregate national economic value of approximately KRW 2.89 trillion (USD 2.08 billion) over five years. This amount exceeds the estimated early-stage implementation costs. Willingness to pay (WTP) is significantly influenced by income, age, and transport-related behaviors and expectations, such as travel distance, usage frequency, and stated preference for UAM. Regional differences in WTP were also observed, indicating the need for geographically differentiated deployment strategies. These findings suggest that public co-financing of UAM infrastructure may be feasible if services align with user-perceived benefits and targeted mobility needs. The study contributes to the emerging literature on UAM policy by offering robust empirical evidence of public support and actionable insights into strategic infrastructure investment and regulatory planning.

城市空中交通（UAM）已成为解决城市拥堵和可达性挑战的一种有希望的解决方案。然而，UAM生态系统发展的公众评估仍未得到充分探索。本研究以代表性家庭调查为基础，采用双界二分类选择或有评估方法，估计了韩国建立国家UAM基础设施的感知经济效益。结果显示，平均每个家庭每年愿意支付37,784韩元（27.22美元）来支持UAM的发展，在五年内转化为大约2.89万亿韩元（20.8亿美元）的国家经济总值。这一数额超过了估计的早期执行费用。支付意愿（WTP）受收入、年龄、交通相关行为和期望（如出行距离、使用频率和对UAM的偏好）的显著影响。WTP的区域差异也被观察到，这表明需要采取地理差异化的部署策略。这些发现表明，如果服务与用户感知的利益和目标移动需求保持一致，公共共同资助UAM基础设施可能是可行的。该研究通过为战略基础设施投资和监管规划提供公众支持和可操作见解的有力经验证据，为UAM政策的新兴文献做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Beyond bulk freight: How the cross-border rail infrastructure reshapes regional value chains 超越散货：跨境铁路基础设施如何重塑区域价值链

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103992

Yang Liu , Shixuan Tong , Wei Liu

Amid a global shift toward the regionalization of production, large-scale infrastructure projects are expected to catalyze economic integration. However, rigorous evidence on how they reshape complex value chain networks remains scarce. This study proposes a novel methodological framework, the Bootstrap Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model with Difference-in-Differences (BTERGM-DID), to analyze the impact of a major infrastructure project, the China-Laos (C-L) Railway, on the evolution of the China-ASEAN regional value chain (RVC) network. The results indicate that cross-border high-speed rail links between inland regions can reshape the structure of RVC networks, increase links between nodes, and expand central and sub-central regions. Our findings reveal a crucial distinction that the cross-border railway's primary economic function is not that of a traditional resource corridor for bulk commodities. Instead, it operates as a value chain integration corridor, significantly intensifying linkages specifically within time-sensitive manufacturing and tradable service sectors. This research contributes a methodological toolkit for causal network analysis and provides critical evidence on the economic function of modern cross-border infrastructure. We find its value lies not merely in reducing freight costs for commodities, but in catalyzing an ecosystem of supporting services that provides the high-speed, reliable logistics necessary for deep integration into RVC.

在全球生产向区域化转变的背景下，大规模基础设施项目有望促进经济一体化。然而，关于它们如何重塑复杂的价值链网络的严格证据仍然很少。本研究提出了一个新颖的方法框架，即带差中差的自举时间指数随机图模型（BTERGM-DID），来分析重大基础设施项目中老铁路对中国-东盟区域价值链（RVC）网络演变的影响。研究结果表明，内陆地区间的跨境高铁连接可以重塑RVC网络结构，增加节点间的联系，扩大中部和次中部地区。我们的研究结果揭示了一个关键的区别，即跨境铁路的主要经济功能不是传统的大宗商品资源走廊。相反，它作为价值链整合走廊运作，特别是在时间敏感的制造业和可贸易服务部门之间显著加强联系。本研究为因果网络分析提供了方法论工具包，并为现代跨境基础设施的经济功能提供了关键证据。我们发现，它的价值不仅在于降低商品的货运成本，还在于催化一个支持服务的生态系统，为深度整合RVC提供高速、可靠的物流。

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引用次数: 0