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Navigating Potential Pitfalls in Difference-in-Differences Designs: Reconciling Conflicting Findings on Mass Shootings’ Effect on Electoral Outcomes 在 "差分设计 "中规避潜在陷阱:调和关于大规模枪击事件对选举结果影响的相互矛盾的研究结果
IF 6.8 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.1017/s0003055424000108
H. Hassell, John B. Holbein
Work on the electoral effects of gun violence in the U.S. relying on difference-in-differences designs has produced findings ranging from null to substantively large effects. However, as difference-in-difference designs, on which this research relies, have exploded in popularity, scholars have documented several methodological issues including potential violations of parallel-trends and unaccounted for treatment effect heterogeneity. These pitfalls (and their solutions) have not been fully explored in political science. We apply these advancements to the unresolved debate on gun violence’s effects on U.S. electoral outcomes. We show that studies finding a large positive effect of gun violence on Democratic vote shares are a product of a failure to properly specify difference-in-differences models when underlying assumptions are unlikely to hold. Once these biases are corrected, shootings show little evidence of sparking large electoral change. Our work clarifies an unresolved debate and provides a cautionary guide for scholars currently employing difference-in-differences designs.
依靠差异设计研究美国枪支暴力对选举的影响,已经得出了从无效效应到实质性巨大效应的各种结论。然而,随着差分设计(本研究依赖的设计)的普及,学者们记录了一些方法论问题,包括潜在的违反平行趋势和未考虑处理效果异质性。政治学领域尚未充分探讨这些隐患(及其解决方案)。我们将这些进步应用于枪支暴力对美国选举结果的影响这一悬而未决的争论。我们的研究表明,发现枪支暴力对民主党选票份额有巨大正向影响的研究,是在基本假设不可能成立的情况下,未能正确指定差分模型的产物。一旦纠正了这些偏差,枪击事件就几乎没有证据表明会引发大规模的选举变化。我们的研究澄清了一个悬而未决的争论,并为目前采用差分设计的学者提供了一个警示性指南。
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引用次数: 2
From Protest to Child-Rearing: How Movement Politics Shape Socialization Priorities 从抗议到育儿:运动政治如何塑造社会化优先事项
IF 6.8 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: 10.1017/s0003055424000273
Allison P. Anoll, A. Engelhardt, Mackenzie Israel-Trummel
Classic political behavior studies assert that childhood socialization can contribute to later political orientations. But, as adults consider how to introduce children to politics, what shapes their decisions? We argue socialization is itself political with adults changing their socialization priorities in response to salient political events including social movements. Using Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests and race socialization as a case, we show the summer 2020 information environment coupled movement-consistent concepts of race with child-rearing guidance. A survey of white parents after the summer activism suggests that many—but especially Democrats and those near peaceful protest epicenters—prioritized new forms of race socialization. Further, nearly 2 years after the protests’ height, priming BLM changes support for race-related curricular materials among white Americans. Our work casts political socialization in a new light, reviving an old literature, and has implications for when today’s children become tomorrow’s voters.
经典的政治行为研究认为,童年时期的社会化会对日后的政治取向产生影响。但是,当成年人考虑如何让儿童接触政治时,是什么影响了他们的决定?我们认为,社会化本身就具有政治性,成人会根据包括社会运动在内的突出政治事件改变其社会化的优先顺序。以 "黑人生命至上"(Black Lives Matter,BLM)抗议活动和种族社会化为例,我们表明 2020 年夏季的信息环境将与运动一致的种族概念与育儿指导相结合。在夏季活动之后对白人家长进行的调查表明,许多家长--尤其是民主党人和那些靠近和平抗议中心的家长--优先考虑新形式的种族社会化。此外,在抗议活动达到高潮近两年后,美国白人对 BLM 的支持改变了对种族相关课程材料的支持。我们的研究从一个新的角度诠释了政治社会化,复兴了一篇古老的文献,并对今天的孩子何时成为明天的选民产生了影响。
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引用次数: 0
Partisanship and Political Socialization in Electoral Autocracies 选举制专制国家的党派和政治社会化
IF 6.8 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1017/s0003055424000261
N. Letsa
In electoral autocracies, why do some people actively support political parties while others choose to not get involved in politics? Further, what differentiates those who choose to support the ruling party from those who support the opposition? Existing research has proposed that people support ruling parties primarily to extract economic benefits from the state while people support opposition parties primarily for ideological reasons. However, we lack a unified theory of partisanship, leading to indeterminant predictions about the individual predictors of partisanship. This article instead considers the social nature of partisanship in authoritarian regimes. Qualitative data collected in Cameroon highlight different processes of political socialization in an autocratic context, and data from an original survey show not only that partisan homogeneity in social networks is highly predictive of individual-level partisanship but also, at least to some extent, that partisanship can be contagious through the process of socialization within these networks.
在选举专制国家,为什么有些人会积极支持政党,而另一些人则选择不参与政治?此外,选择支持执政党的人与支持反对党的人之间有什么区别?现有研究提出,人们支持执政党主要是为了从国家获取经济利益,而人们支持反对党主要是出于意识形态原因。然而,我们缺乏统一的党派性理论,导致对党派性个体预测因素的预测不确定。本文转而探讨了专制政权中党派性的社会性质。在喀麦隆收集的定性数据突显了专制背景下政治社会化的不同过程,一项原创调查的数据不仅表明社会网络中的党派同质性对个人层面的党派性有很高的预测性,而且至少在某种程度上,党派性可以通过这些网络中的社会化过程传染。
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引用次数: 0
Anger and Political Conflict Dynamics 愤怒与政治冲突动态
IF 6.8 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI: 10.1017/s0003055424000078
Keith E. Schnakenberg, Carly N. Wayne
Emotions shape strategic conflict dynamics. However, the precise way in which strategic and emotional concerns interact to affect international cooperation and contention are not well understood. We propose a model of intergroup conflict under incomplete information in which agents are sensitive to psychological motivations in the form of anger. Agents become angry in response to worse-than-expected outcomes due to actions of other players. Aggression may be motivated by anger or by beliefs about preferences of members of the other group. Increasing one group’s sensitivity to anger makes that group more aggressive but reduces learning about preferences, which makes the other group less aggressive in response to bad outcomes. Thus, anger has competing effects on the likelihood of conflict. The results have important implications for understanding the complex role of anger in international relations and, more generally, the interplay between psychological and material aims in both fomenting and ameliorating conflict.
情感影响着战略冲突的态势。然而,人们对战略和情感因素相互作用、影响国际合作与竞争的确切方式还不甚了解。我们提出了一个不完全信息下的群体间冲突模型,在这个模型中,行为主体对愤怒形式的心理动机非常敏感。当其他参与者的行为导致不如预期的结果时,参与者就会变得愤怒。攻击的动机可能是愤怒,也可能是对另一群体成员偏好的看法。提高一个群体对愤怒的敏感度会使该群体更具攻击性,但却会减少对偏好的了解,从而使另一个群体在应对糟糕结果时降低攻击性。因此,愤怒对冲突发生的可能性具有竞争效应。这些结果对于理解愤怒在国际关系中的复杂作用,以及更广泛地理解心理和物质目标在煽动和改善冲突中的相互作用具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Territorial Autonomy and the Trade-Off between Civil and Communal Violence 领土自治与公民暴力和社区暴力之间的权衡
IF 6.8 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI: 10.1017/s0003055424000017
Andreas Juon
To safeguard peace in multi-ethnic countries, scholars and practitioners recommend territorial autonomy. However, there is limited cross-national research on how autonomy affects subnational ethnic conflict, and increasing concern that it redirects ethnic violence from the national to the subnational level. Addressing this gap, I argue that autonomy generates tensions over subnational government control and the distribution of local economic goods. However, whether these turn violent depends on ethnic representation in the central government. If groups are unequally represented, violent escalation is more likely due to information and commitment problems and subnational majoritarianism. To test these arguments, I provide new time-variant data on subnational boundaries, territorial autonomy, and ethnically attributed violence. I conduct a systematic analysis of all multi-ethnic countries between 1989 and 2019, instrumental variable analyses, and tests of my argument’s intermediate implications. My findings underline the importance of complementing autonomy with inclusive central governments to attenuate the risks of subnational violence.
为了保障多民族国家的和平,学者和实践者建议实行领土自治。然而,关于自治如何影响次国家级民族冲突的跨国研究十分有限,人们越来越担心自治会将民族暴力从国家层面转移到次国家层面。针对这一空白,我认为自治会在国家以下各级政府的控制和地方经济产品的分配方面引发紧张局势。然而,这些是否会演变成暴力取决于中央政府中的民族代表权。如果各群体的代表性不平等,那么由于信息和承诺问题以及国家以下的多数主义,暴力升级的可能性就更大。为了验证这些论点,我提供了有关国家以下各级边界、领土自治和种族暴力的新的时变数据。我对 1989 年至 2019 年间的所有多民族国家进行了系统分析、工具变量分析,并检验了我的论点的中间含义。我的研究结果凸显了自治与包容性中央政府相辅相成以降低次国家暴力风险的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Judicial Decisions on Issue Salience and Legal Consciousness in Media Serving the LGBTQ+ Community 司法判决对服务于 LGBTQ+ 群体的媒体的议题显著性和法律意识的影响
IF 6.8 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI: 10.1017/s0003055424000030
Christine M. Bailey, Paul M. Collins, Jesse H. Rhodes, Douglas Rice
Scholars have long questioned whether and how courts influence society. We contribute to this debate by investigating the ability of judicial decisions to shape issue attention and affect toward courts in media serving the LGBTQ+ community. To do so, we compiled an original database of LGBTQ+ magazine coverage of court cases over an extended period covering major decisions, including Lawrence v. Texas (2003), Goodridge v. Massachusetts Department of Public Health (2003), and Lofton v. Secretary of Department of Children & Family Services (2004). We argue these cases influence the volume and tone of LGBTQ+ media coverage. Combining computational social science techniques with qualitative analysis, we find increased attention to same-sex marriage after the decisions in Lawrence, Goodridge, and Lofton, and the coalescence of discussions of courts around same-sex marriage after Lawrence. We also show how LGBTQ+ media informed readers about the political and legal implications of struggles over marriage equality.
长期以来,学者们一直在质疑法院是否以及如何影响社会。我们通过研究司法判决对问题的关注度以及服务于 LGBTQ+ 社区的媒体对法院的影响,为这一争论做出了贡献。为此,我们汇编了一个原创数据库,其中包含了 LGBTQ+ 杂志在一段较长时期内对法院案件的报道,涵盖了包括 Lawrence v. Texas(2003 年)、Goodridge v. Massachusetts Department of Public Health(2003 年)和 Lofton v. Secretary of Department of Children & Family Services(2004 年)在内的主要判决。我们认为这些案件影响了 LGBTQ+ 媒体报道的数量和基调。通过将计算社会科学技术与定性分析相结合,我们发现在劳伦斯案、古德里奇案和洛夫顿案判决后,同性婚姻受到更多关注,劳伦斯案判决后,法院围绕同性婚姻的讨论趋于一致。我们还展示了 LGBTQ+ 媒体如何让读者了解婚姻平等斗争的政治和法律影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Liar’s Dividend: Can Politicians Claim Misinformation to Evade Accountability? 骗子的红利:政客能否利用错误信息逃避责任?
IF 6.8 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.1017/s0003055423001454
Kaylyn Jackson Schiff, Danielle Schiff, Natália S. Bueno
This study addresses the phenomenon of misinformation about misinformation, or politicians “crying wolf” over fake news. Strategic and false claims that stories are fake news or deepfakes may benefit politicians by helping them maintain support after a scandal. We posit that this benefit, known as the “liar’s dividend,” may be achieved through two politician strategies: by invoking informational uncertainty or by encouraging oppositional rallying of core supporters. We administer five survey experiments to over 15,000 American adults detailing hypothetical politician responses to stories describing real politician scandals. We find that claims of misinformation representing both strategies raise politician support across partisan subgroups. These strategies are effective against text-based reports of scandals, but are largely ineffective against video evidence and do not reduce general trust in media. Finally, these false claims produce greater dividends for politicians than alternative responses to scandal, such as remaining silent or apologizing.
本研究探讨了关于错误信息的错误信息,或政客对假新闻 "狼来了 "的现象。有策略地虚假宣称新闻是假新闻或深度造假可能会使政客受益,帮助他们在丑闻发生后维持支持率。我们认为,这种被称为 "骗子红利 "的好处可以通过两种政治家策略来实现:引发信息的不确定性或鼓励核心支持者的反对声浪。我们对 15,000 多名美国成年人进行了五次调查实验,详细调查了假设的政客对描述真实政客丑闻的报道的反应。我们发现,代表这两种策略的错误信息声明会提高各党派子群对政治家的支持率。这些策略对基于文字的丑闻报道有效,但对视频证据基本无效,也不会降低人们对媒体的普遍信任。最后,与保持沉默或道歉等其他应对丑闻的方式相比,这些虚假宣传能为政治家带来更大的红利。
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引用次数: 1
Bureaucratic Quality and Electoral Accountability 官僚素质与选举问责制
IF 6.8 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-29 DOI: 10.1017/s0003055423001405
Tara Slough
In many theories of electoral accountability, voters learn about an incumbent’s quality by observing public goods outcomes. But empirical findings are mixed, suggesting that increasing the visibility of these outcomes only sometimes improves accountability. I reconcile these heterogeneous findings by highlighting bureaucrats’ role in the production of public goods. In a simple model of electoral accountability involving a voter, a politician, and a bureaucrat, I show that accountability relationships yield distinct empirical implications at different levels of bureaucratic quality. To illustrate how this model rationalizes otherwise mixed or heterogeneous results, I develop a new research design—a theoretically structured meta-study—to synthesize existing findings. Meta-study evidence on the accountability of Brazilian mayors suggests that a common model of electoral accountability that allows for variation in bureaucratic quality predicts observed heterogeneity in politician and voter behavior and beliefs across multiple studies with distinct samples, treatments, and outcomes.
在许多选举问责理论中,选民通过观察公共产品的结果来了解现任者的素质。但实证研究结果不一,表明提高这些结果的能见度有时才能改善问责制。我通过强调官僚在公共产品生产中的作用来调和这些不同的研究结果。在一个涉及选民、政治家和官僚的简单选举问责模型中,我表明在不同的官僚素质水平下,问责关系会产生不同的经验影响。为了说明这一模型如何合理地解释原本混杂或异质的结果,我开发了一种新的研究设计--一种理论结构化的元研究--来综合现有的研究结果。关于巴西市长问责制的元研究证据表明,一个允许官僚机构质量变化的选举问责制共同模型,可以预测在具有不同样本、处理方法和结果的多项研究中观察到的政治家和选民行为与信念的异质性。
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引用次数: 1
Who Gets Hired? Political Patronage and Bureaucratic Favoritism 谁会被聘用?政治庇护和官僚偏袒
IF 6.8 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-25 DOI: 10.1017/s0003055423001338
Mai Hassan, Horacio Larreguy, Stuart Russell
Most research on biased public sector hiring highlights local politicians’ incentives to distribute government positions to partisan supporters. Other studies instead point to the role of bureaucratic managers in allocating government jobs to close contacts. We jointly consider the relative importance of each source of biased hiring as an allocation problem between managers and politicians who have different preferences regarding public sector hiring and different abilities to realize those preferences. We develop a theoretical model of each actor’s relative leverage and relative preferences for different types of public sector positions. We empirically examine our theory using the universe of payroll data in Kenyan local governments from 2004 to 2013. We find evidence of both patronage and bureaucratic favoritism, but with different types of bias concentrated in different types of government jobs, as our theory predicts. Our results highlight the inadequacy of examining political patronage alone without incorporating the preferences and leverage of the bureaucratic managers who are intricately involved in hiring processes.
关于公共部门用人偏见的大多数研究都强调了地方政客将政府职位分配给党派支持者的动机。其他研究则指出了官僚管理者在将政府职位分配给关系密切者时所起的作用。我们将偏向性招聘的每种来源的相对重要性作为管理者和政治家之间的分配问题来共同考虑,因为管理者和政治家在公共部门招聘方面有着不同的偏好,实现这些偏好的能力也各不相同。我们建立了一个理论模型,说明每个行为者的相对杠杆作用和对不同类型公共部门职位的相对偏好。我们利用肯尼亚地方政府 2004 年至 2013 年的工资单数据对我们的理论进行了实证检验。我们发现了庇护和官僚偏袒的证据,但正如我们的理论所预测的那样,不同类型的偏袒集中在不同类型的政府职位上。我们的研究结果凸显出,如果只研究政治庇护,而不考虑与招聘过程密切相关的官僚管理人员的偏好和影响力,是不够的。
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引用次数: 1
PSR volume 118 issue 1 Cover and Front matter PSR 第 118 卷第 1 期封面和封底
IF 6.8 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1017/s0003055423001430
{"title":"PSR volume 118 issue 1 Cover and Front matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/s0003055423001430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055423001430","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48451,"journal":{"name":"American Political Science Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139602120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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American Political Science Review
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