In a recent commentary article, Randall Jackson (2022) claims that U.S. maize croplands currently growing cattle feed can be converted to perennial pastures without incurring either a loss of beef production or agricultural expansion. Grass-finished cattle fatten up slower and reach lower slaughter weights than grain-finished cattle (Pelletier et al., 2010). Therefore, to support present beef production using only pastures, more finishing cattle must be raised and slaughtered. The author recognizes this and attempts to quantify whether current maize production regions could instead grow sufficient perennial grasses and forages. He finds that an additional 7.6 million finishing cattle must be raised to produce exclusively grass-fed beef. He then calculates that 4.9 million ha of maize croplands growing cattle feed could, instead, grow sufficient grass to support these cattle.
However, the author makes a fundamental oversight—those 7.6 million additional finishing cattle must come from somewhere; they need mothers. Finishing cattle are supported on the “back end” by large cow-calf and stocker herds on pastures, who replace the current finishing cattle when they are slaughtered. Unlike pigs and chickens who can have many offspring per year, cows have long gestation periods of 9 mo, like humans, birthing at most one offspring each year. Cow gestation periods are so long and cattle maturity is so slow that cattle on pastures outnumber finishing cattle in feedlots by nearly five to one (Figure 1).
To raise 7.6 million more grass-finished cattle, U.S. ranchers would need to raise 7.7 million more cows, along with 7.8 million more calves and stocker cattle on pastures. Altogether, an exclusively grass-finished system requires 23.1 million (30%) more cattle to produce the same quantity of beef (Table 1), not 7.6 million (10%) more as the author models. We published these findings in a study that was cited by the author (Hayek & Garrett, 2018), but he missed this central finding.
Larger grass-finished cattle herds require additional resources. Optimistically, a maximum of 71% of current production could be met if the United States shifted its maize feed crops for finishing cattle to perennial forages (Hayek & Garrett, 2018). We assumed a similar potential forage yield on current maize croplands of 10.3 dry matter (DM) ha–1 yr–1, which lies within the author's range of 8–12 DM ha–1 yr–1. Maintaining these yields requires fertilizer inputs: we assumed forages were produced using conventional hay and alfalfa production, and the author's range of 8–12 DM ha–1 yr–1 is derived from a study of U.S. Upper Midwest pastures that applied fertilizer at a rate of 57 kg N ha–1 yr–1 (Oates et al., 2011). These findings are consistent with multiple other studies, which demonstrate that grass-f