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Integrative Sustainable Development Goal policy portfolios to accelerate global progress towards a more sustainable future: a modelling study 综合可持续发展目标政策组合加速实现更可持续未来的全球进展:一项模拟研究。
IF 21.6 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101318
Jing Yang PhD , Lei Gao PhD , Zhaoxia Guo PhD , Yucheng Dong PhD , Enayat A Moallemi PhD , Sibel Eker PhD , Qi Liu PhD , Zengxiao Chi MSc , Prof Fengming Liu PhD , Prof Michael Obersteiner PhD , Prof Brett A Bryan PhD
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Progress towards the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is far off track. An effective and comprehensive assessment of policy impacts on the SDGs is crucial for accelerating global progress towards their achievement. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of progress towards ten SDGs under future deep uncertainties and identify the most effective policy portfolios that best achieve these SDGs simultaneously.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this study, we used an integrative modelling approach to capture important aspects of the complex behaviours of the global environmental and socioeconomic system. The study was conducted based on the functional enviro-economic linkages integrated nexus model, which is a system dynamics model that simulates interdependencies among global social, economic, and environmental components across 12 sectoral modules, including population, education, economy, poverty, energy, land use, water, food and diet change, fertiliser use, climate, carbon cycle, and biodiversity. The model was constructed with historical data from 1950 to 2021, sourced primarily from official international organisations such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, the International Energy Agency, the World Bank, the UN Development Programme, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We used 32 SDG assessment indicators to quantify the impacts of 6480 policy portfolios from seven policy clusters interactively on ten SDGs up until 2050. We then used a multiobjective sorting and ranking method to identify robust policy portfolios that most effectively accelerate progress towards the ten SDGs simultaneously across five future socioeconomic pathways.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Although single-sector policies can boost progress towards the SDGs, multisectoral policy portfolios consisting of complementary policies from different sectors are required to achieve societal, economic, and environmental goals, and to capitalise on synergies and minimise undesirable trade-offs amongst SDGs. The policy portfolios play a more important role than more general socioeconomic development pathways in accelerating progress towards the SDGs. Two robust policy portfolios composed of seven policies, including ambitious education, energy supply decarbonisation, crop yield increase, sustainable water use, high nitrogen use efficiency, healthy and sustainable dietary change, and climate change mitigation with careful consideration of ecosystem impacts, were the most effective for global sustainable transformations regardless of future uncertainties, effecting up to a 19·6% to 29·5% improvement in overall progress towards the ten SDGs by 2050 compared with a reference policy portfolio without additional policies taken.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Greater progress towards multiple SDGs can be made through more ambitious policies and their more integrated implementation. Our
背景:联合国17项可持续发展目标(sdg)的进展远未步入正轨。有效和全面地评估政策对可持续发展目标的影响,对于加速实现这些目标的全球进展至关重要。我们旨在全面评估在未来严重不确定的情况下实现10项可持续发展目标的进展情况,并确定最有效的政策组合,以最好地同时实现这些可持续发展目标。方法:在本研究中,我们使用了一种综合建模方法来捕捉全球环境和社会经济系统复杂行为的重要方面。该研究基于功能环境经济联系综合关联模型进行,该模型是一个系统动力学模型,模拟全球社会、经济和环境组成部分在12个部门模块之间的相互依赖关系,包括人口、教育、经济、贫困、能源、土地利用、水、食物和饮食变化、肥料使用、气候、碳循环和生物多样性。该模型使用1950年至2021年的历史数据构建,主要来自联合国粮食及农业组织、国际能源署、世界银行、联合国开发计划署和政府间气候变化专门委员会等官方国际组织。我们使用32个可持续发展目标评估指标来量化7个政策集群的6480个政策组合对10个可持续发展目标的影响,直至2050年。然后,我们使用多目标排序和排名方法来确定稳健的政策组合,这些政策组合最有效地加速了在未来五条社会经济途径中同时实现十个可持续发展目标的进程。研究结果:尽管单一部门政策可以促进可持续发展目标的进展,但需要由不同部门的互补政策组成的多部门政策组合来实现社会、经济和环境目标,并利用协同效应,最大限度地减少可持续发展目标之间的不良权衡。在加速实现可持续发展目标方面,政策组合比更一般的社会经济发展途径发挥更重要的作用。两项强有力的政策组合由七项政策组成,包括雄心勃勃的教育、能源供应脱碳、作物产量增加、可持续用水、高氮利用效率、健康和可持续的饮食变化以及认真考虑生态系统影响的减缓气候变化,这两项政策组合对全球可持续转型最为有效,而不考虑未来的不确定性。与不采取额外政策的参考政策组合相比,到2050年实现十项可持续发展目标的总体进展可提高19.6%至29.5%。解读:通过更有雄心的政策和更全面的实施,可以在实现多个可持续发展目标方面取得更大进展。我们强有力的政策组合为国际社会采取协调一致的行动加速实现可持续发展目标提供了总体转型方向。资助:国家自然科学基金、中国博士后科学基金、中国留学基金委。
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引用次数: 0
Healthy Islands at 30: revitalising an ecological framework for planetary health 健康岛屿30周年:为地球健康重振生态框架。
IF 21.6 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101381
Anaseini Ratu , Sione Tu’itahi , Timoci Naivalulevu , Donald Wilson , Helen Moewaka Barnes , Rebecca Patrick , Hannah A Turley , Stacy D Jupiter , Alice Latinne , Joel Negin , Margot W Parkes , Anthony Capon , Pierre Horwitz , Aaron P Jenkins
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引用次数: 0
Physical effort during labour and behavioural adaptations in response to heat stress among subsistence farmers in Burkina Faso: a gender-specific longitudinal observational study 布基纳法索自给农民在劳动期间的体力劳动和应对热应激的行为适应:一项针对性别的纵向观察研究。
IF 21.6 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101344
Edgar Eggert MSc , Prof Hanns-Christian Gunga Dr , Ali Sié MD PhD , Lucienne Ouermi MD MPH , Windpanga Aristide Ouédraogo MSc , Daniel Kwaro MD , Prof Rainer Sauerborn MD PhD , Aditi Bunker PhD , Sandra Barteit PhD , Prof Till Bärnighausen PD PhD , Martina Anna Maggioni PD PhD
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Climate change-related heat stress disproportionately affects people in sub-Saharan Africa, impairing physical performance and increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses. Despite subsistence farming's key role in food security, scarce studies have measured farmers' physical effort during labour and the impact of behavioural adaptations to heat stress in real-life settings. This long-term, empirical study in Burkina Faso, one of the world’s resource-poorest countries, aimed to measure the heat stress-labour effort relationships among subsistence farmers, accounting for gender-related differences in labour roles.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We conducted a 1-year observational study using the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Burkina Faso. We included participants who were healthy, actively practising farmers aged 20–45 years who were neither overweight nor underweight, had no chronic illnesses, no planned pregnancy or breastfeeding status, and resided within a 10-km radius of the weather station. Using research-grade wearables, we collected time-series data on environmental conditions, tracking indoor and outdoor wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and physiological responses such as daily activity, estimated core body temperature, heart rate, and GPS-tracked movements. To operationalise physical effort during labour, we evaluated the physiological strain index (PSI; 0–10 scale with 10 being highest strain) and activity intensity during fieldwork, measured as functions of WBGT. Behavioural adaptations were measured using working patterns including work duration, break times, and seasonal work distribution. The main outcomes are compared across genders and complemented by analyses of monthly vital sign assessments and heat impact surveys.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Between Aug 9, 2021, and Aug 30, 2022, we recruited 39 subsistence farmer households (39 women, 39 men). One household dropped out of follow-up, and 38 households (76 participants [38 men, 38 women]) were included in the analysis. During fieldwork, PSI decreased as WBGT increased (–0·04 [95% CI –0·07 to –0·01], p=0·0056), suggesting adaptive pacing. Men reduced their average activity intensity once WBGT exceeded 27°C. By contrast, women experienced a higher PSI and activity intensity during fieldwork than men (PSI: 0·47 [0·07–0·87], p=0·025). Each 1°C WBGT rise extended daily working time by 12·3 min (95% CI 2·75–21·89, p=0·013) and participants shifted work patterns in response to heat stress by increasing break duration and shifting work to cooler times.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Heat stress significantly reduces the physical effort during labour. Self-employed subsistence farmers appear to adapt to heat stress by lowering labour intensity, redistributing tasks throughout the day, and shifting work to cooler months. As climate change worsens, these adaptations could become inadequate. Women, who often
背景:与气候变化相关的热应激对撒哈拉以南非洲地区的人们造成了不成比例的影响,损害了身体机能,增加了患与热有关疾病的风险。尽管自给农业在粮食安全方面发挥着关键作用,但很少有研究衡量农民在劳动期间的体力劳动以及在现实生活中对热应激的行为适应的影响。这项在布基纳法索(世界上资源最贫乏的国家之一)进行的长期实证研究,旨在衡量自给农民之间的热应激-劳动努力关系,并考虑到劳动角色的性别差异。方法:我们利用布基纳法索的Nouna健康和人口监测系统进行了为期1年的观察性研究。我们纳入了健康、积极从事农业活动、年龄在20-45岁之间、既不超重也不体重不足、没有慢性疾病、没有计划怀孕或母乳喂养状况、居住在气象站10公里半径范围内的参与者。使用研究级可穿戴设备,我们收集了环境条件的时间序列数据,跟踪室内和室外湿球温度(WBGT)和生理反应,如日常活动、估计的核心体温、心率和gps跟踪的运动。为了操作劳动期间的体力劳动,我们评估了野外工作期间的生理应变指数(PSI; 0-10量表,10为最高应变)和活动强度,作为WBGT的函数来测量。行为适应是通过工作模式来衡量的,包括工作时间、休息时间和季节性工作分配。主要结果在性别之间进行比较,并辅以每月生命体征评估和热影响调查的分析。研究结果:在2021年8月9日至2022年8月30日期间,我们招募了39个自给农户(39名女性,39名男性)。1个家庭退出随访,38个家庭(76名参与者[38名男性,38名女性])被纳入分析。在野外工作中,PSI随着WBGT的增加而下降(- 0.04 [95% CI - 0.07至- 0.01],p= 0.0056),提示适应性起搏。一旦WBGT超过27°C,男性的平均活动强度就会降低。女性在野外工作中的PSI和活动强度均高于男性(PSI: 0.47 [0.07 - 0.87], p= 0.025)。WBGT每升高1°C,每日工作时间延长12.3分钟(95% CI 2.75 - 21.89, p= 0.013),参与者通过增加休息时间和将工作转移到较冷的时间来改变工作模式,以应对热应激。解释:热应激显著降低了分娩时的体力消耗。自谋生计的农民似乎通过降低劳动强度、在一天中重新分配任务以及将工作转移到较冷的月份来适应热应激。随着气候变化的恶化,这些适应可能会变得不够。女性往往要平衡家务和野外工作,她们的节奏策略有限,这使她们更容易受到日益严重的热应激的影响。我们的研究结果强调了迫切需要有针对性的适应策略,以在分娩期间保持体力劳动,并保护弱势群体,特别是妇女,免受不断升级的热应激。资助:德国研究基金会(DFG-German Research Foundation)。
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引用次数: 0
Knowledge and awareness of climate change and its health impacts among members in health-related faculties in Istanbul 伊斯坦布尔卫生学院成员对气候变化及其健康影响的知识和认识
IF 21.6 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101362
Ilknur Ayvaz , Sena Ak , Berfin Zomorody , Caglasu Gunes , Omer Kaya , Sedat Guldal , Seyhan Hıdıroglu

Background

Climate change is recognised as a major global threat to human health in the 21st century. Health professionals are expected to play a crucial role in mitigating climate-related health risks and preparing health systems for emerging challenges. This study aimed to assess the knowledge and awareness of climate change and health impacts among members working at the health faculties of a public university in Istanbul.

Methods

This descriptive study targeted 494 faculty members across four faculties: Medicine, Dentistry, Health Sciences, and Pharmacy. An online questionnaire was provided between December, 2021 and April, 2022. 217 members responded. The survey included sociodemographic questions and items assessing knowledge and awareness of climate change and its health effects. Data were analysed using Pearson’s Chi-Square and Fisher’s Exact tests, with statistical significance set at p<0·05. Ethics approval was obtained.

Findings

Only 82 (37·8%) of 217 members correctly defined climate change, although 191 (88%) believed climate change aff5cts personal health and n=193 (89%) expressed concern about climate change. 145 reported modifying consumption habits due to climate change, whereas only 53 (24·4%) integrated the topic into their teaching. There were significant differences between gender and health-related perceptions and between faculty type and support for including climate change in the curriculum (p<0·001).

Interpretation

Despite high concern levels, faculty members had limited knowledge and showed low integration of climate change into educational content. Enhancing education on climate change and health impacts in the health students' curriculum is essential for advancing planetary health awareness and action.

Funding

None.
气候变化被认为是21世纪人类健康面临的主要全球威胁。预计卫生专业人员将在减轻与气候有关的卫生风险和使卫生系统为新出现的挑战做好准备方面发挥关键作用。这项研究的目的是评估在伊斯坦布尔一所公立大学卫生学院工作的成员对气候变化和健康影响的知识和认识。方法本研究以医学、牙科、健康科学和药学四个院系的494名教职员工为研究对象。在2021年12月至2022年4月期间提供了一份在线问卷。217名成员回应了。调查包括社会人口学问题和评估气候变化及其对健康影响的知识和意识的项目。数据分析采用Pearson 's Chi-Square和Fisher 's Exact检验,统计学显著性设为p<; 0.05。获得伦理批准。结果217名成员中只有82人(37.8%)正确定义了气候变化,尽管191人(88%)认为气候变化影响个人健康,n=193人(89%)表达了对气候变化的担忧。145所学校报告说,由于气候变化而改变了消费习惯,而只有53所学校(24.4%)将这一主题纳入了教学。性别和健康相关认知之间、教师类型和对将气候变化纳入课程的支持之间存在显著差异(p< 0.001)。尽管教师对气候变化的关注程度很高,但他们对气候变化的了解有限,并且将气候变化融入教育内容的程度较低。在卫生专业学生的课程中加强关于气候变化和健康影响的教育,对于提高对地球健康的认识和采取行动至关重要。
{"title":"Knowledge and awareness of climate change and its health impacts among members in health-related faculties in Istanbul","authors":"Ilknur Ayvaz ,&nbsp;Sena Ak ,&nbsp;Berfin Zomorody ,&nbsp;Caglasu Gunes ,&nbsp;Omer Kaya ,&nbsp;Sedat Guldal ,&nbsp;Seyhan Hıdıroglu","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101362","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101362","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Climate change is recognised as a major global threat to human health in the 21st century. Health professionals are expected to play a crucial role in mitigating climate-related health risks and preparing health systems for emerging challenges. This study aimed to assess the knowledge and awareness of climate change and health impacts among members working at the health faculties of a public university in Istanbul.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This descriptive study targeted 494 faculty members across four faculties: Medicine, Dentistry, Health Sciences, and Pharmacy. An online questionnaire was provided between December, 2021 and April, 2022. 217 members responded. The survey included sociodemographic questions and items assessing knowledge and awareness of climate change and its health effects. Data were analysed using Pearson’s Chi-Square and Fisher’s Exact tests, with statistical significance set at p&lt;0·05. Ethics approval was obtained.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Only 82 (37·8%) of 217 members correctly defined climate change, although 191 (88%) believed climate change aff5cts personal health and n=193 (89%) expressed concern about climate change. 145 reported modifying consumption habits due to climate change, whereas only 53 (24·4%) integrated the topic into their teaching. There were significant differences between gender and health-related perceptions and between faculty type and support for including climate change in the curriculum (p&lt;0·001).</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Despite high concern levels, faculty members had limited knowledge and showed low integration of climate change into educational content. Enhancing education on climate change and health impacts in the health students' curriculum is essential for advancing planetary health awareness and action.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>None.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 ","pages":"Article 101362"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How far can neutrality go? 中立能走多远?
IF 21.6 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101322
Oliver Razum , Nataliia Lepska , Maksym Lepskyi , Diego S Silva
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引用次数: 0
Bridging communities of practice: lessons from the Humanitarian Health Research Forum on climate, crisis, and collaboration 衔接实践社区:来自人道主义卫生研究论坛关于气候、危机和合作的经验教训。
IF 21.6 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101345
Gillian McKay , Siautu Alefaio , Blythe Beecroft , Lauren D’Mello-Guyett , Alice Karanja , Christopher LeBoa , Carrie Ngongo , V Bhargavi Rao , Ruwan Ratnayake , Calistus Wilunda , Beatrice Kiage
{"title":"Bridging communities of practice: lessons from the Humanitarian Health Research Forum on climate, crisis, and collaboration","authors":"Gillian McKay ,&nbsp;Siautu Alefaio ,&nbsp;Blythe Beecroft ,&nbsp;Lauren D’Mello-Guyett ,&nbsp;Alice Karanja ,&nbsp;Christopher LeBoa ,&nbsp;Carrie Ngongo ,&nbsp;V Bhargavi Rao ,&nbsp;Ruwan Ratnayake ,&nbsp;Calistus Wilunda ,&nbsp;Beatrice Kiage","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101345","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101345","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 11","pages":"Article 101345"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145330485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing public support for degrowth: survey-based experimental and predictive studies 评估公众对去生长的支持:基于调查的实验和预测研究。
IF 21.6 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101326
Dario Krpan PhD , Frédéric Basso PhD , Prof Jason E Hickel PhD , Prof Giorgos Kallis PhD
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Degrowth argues that high-income economies should reduce harmful production and prioritise wellbeing. Although degrowth is increasingly seen as essential to tackling climate change, the extent of public support for this economic approach remains unclear. In this study, we aimed to investigate public support for the full degrowth proposal in the UK and USA—high-income, growth-oriented nations with substantial climate responsibility and political resistance to degrowth. Our objectives were to distinguish support for the proposal itself from perceptions of the degrowth label and to examine the role of participants’ individual differences.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Our objectives were examined in two studies, Study 1 and Study 2, administered online via Qualtrics. For both studies, participants in the USA and UK were recruited via Prolific (an online pool of participants) to be representative of the respective populations in age, gender, and ethnicity. Participants had to pass several attention and quality checks to qualify for analyses. Study 1 used a within-subjects design whereby all participants rated their support for the full degrowth proposal (summarising the key ideas, practices, and goals of degrowth) without any label and for eight economic approaches presented by label only (ie, degrowth, ecomodernism, ecosocialism, green capitalism, green growth, green market economy, post growth, and wellbeing economy) on a 7-point scale (from 1 [strongly oppose] to 7 [strongly support]). Study 2 used a between-subjects design whereby participants were randomly assigned using the randomiser function in Qualtrics, to one of seven economic approaches (the full degrowth proposal; a label referring to either degrowth, ecosocialism, or wellbeing economy without a description; or a combination of the full degrowth proposal with one of these three labels), for which they rated their support on the same 7-point scale. Mean support for each approach was classified on the basis of 95% CIs, meaning that similar means could be classified differently across studies and samples due to variations in these intervals. To identify key predictors of support, we also measured 74 individual differences, including various psychological and socioeconomic characteristics, and analysed them using an approach combining widely used machine learning models with multiple linear regression analyses; a variable was considered a key predictor only if it ranked among the most predictive in the machine learning models and was also statistically significant in the regression analyses.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Data were collected from study participants between Oct 10, 2023, and Dec 1, 2023. 6228 participants from the UK and USA were initially recruited, of whom 5454 were eligible for analyses. When presented without a label, in the UK, the full degrowth proposal received support from 736 (81%) of 910 participants in Study 1 and 210 (82%
背景:Degrowth认为,高收入经济体应该减少有害生产,优先考虑福祉。尽管“去生长”日益被视为应对气候变化的关键,但公众对这种经济方式的支持程度仍不明朗。在这项研究中,我们的目的是调查公众对英国和美国的全面去增长提案的支持——高收入、以增长为导向的国家具有重大的气候责任和对去增长的政治阻力。我们的目标是区分对提案本身的支持与对去增长标签的看法,并检查参与者个体差异的作用。方法:我们的目标在两项研究中进行了检验,研究1和研究2,通过qualics在线管理。在这两项研究中,美国和英国的参与者都是通过多产(一个在线参与者库)招募的,以代表各自的年龄、性别和种族。参与者必须通过几项注意力和质量检查,才有资格进行分析。研究1采用了受试者内部设计,所有参与者在没有任何标签的情况下对完整的去增长提案(总结了去增长的关键思想、实践和目标)以及仅通过标签提出的八种经济方法(即去增长、生态现代主义、生态社会主义、绿色资本主义、绿色增长、绿色市场经济、后增长和福利经济)的支持度进行评分,评分范围为7分(从1分[强烈反对]到7分[强烈支持])。研究2采用了受试者之间的设计,参与者使用Qualtrics中的随机函数随机分配到七种经济方法中的一种(完全去增长建议;一个标签指的是去增长、生态社会主义或福利经济,但没有描述;或者是完全去增长建议与这三种标签之一的组合),他们在相同的7分制上对他们的支持度进行评分。每种方法的平均支持度在95% ci的基础上进行分类,这意味着由于这些区间的变化,相似的均值可以在不同的研究和样本中进行不同的分类。为了确定支持的关键预测因素,我们还测量了74个个体差异,包括各种心理和社会经济特征,并使用将广泛使用的机器学习模型与多元线性回归分析相结合的方法对其进行了分析;只有当一个变量在机器学习模型中排名最具预测性,并且在回归分析中也具有统计意义时,它才被认为是关键的预测因子。研究结果:数据收集于2023年10月10日至2023年12月1日期间。最初从英国和美国招募了6228名参与者,其中5454人符合分析条件。在英国,在没有标签的情况下,研究1中910名参与者中有736人(81%)支持完整的去生长建议,研究2中255名参与者中有210人(82%)支持。在美国,研究1的941名参与者中有683名(73%)支持该方法,研究2的260名参与者中有187名(72%)支持该方法。在7分制量表中,在研究1中,英国的支持率为5.37,美国为5.07(均对应于某种程度的支持),而在研究2中,英国的支持率为5.34(对应于某种程度的支持),美国的支持率为4.97(对应于某种程度的支持)。当去生长单独作为一个标签时,在英国,研究1中910名参与者中有237人(26%)支持,研究2中250名参与者中有50人(20%)支持,在美国,研究1中941名参与者中有266人(28%)支持,研究2中270名参与者中有34人(13%)支持。在研究2中,英国248名参与者中有184人(74%)支持去生长标签,美国260名参与者中有177人(68%)支持去生长标签。此外,英国250名参与者中有188人(75%)和美国264名参与者中有176人(67%)支持完全去增长提案加上生态社会主义标签,英国250名参与者中有209人(84%)和美国249名参与者中有179人(72%)支持完全去增长提案加上福利经济标签。支持度的关键个体差异预测因子是人们应对全球挑战的动力和对生态系统完整性的信念。解读:与政治家和评论家普遍不受欢迎的担忧相反,在这项研究中,核心的去增长提案得到了英国和美国参与者的大力支持,无论完整的提案是否伴随着去增长的标签。因此,一旦人们了解了去生长背后的主要原则,对去生长标签的负面看法似乎就可以克服了。积极应对全球挑战,提高对自然脆弱性的认识,可以进一步增强公众对去增长的接受度。资助:伦敦政治经济学院。
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引用次数: 0
Putting food at the centre of learning: an evidence-based and practice-informed model of holistic food education in schools 将食物置于学习的中心:基于证据和实践的学校整体食物教育模式。
IF 21.6 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00033-6
Melissa Vargas MSc , Cristina Álvarez Sánchez PhD , Vilma Tyler MSc , Fatima Hachem PhD
Food education in schools is increasingly being adopted as one of the key policy levers to support the shift towards healthier and more sustainable food practices worldwide. However, the way in which food education is designed and implemented is not often conducive to such goals. We propose a food learning model and process for designing holistic food education that fosters food competent children and adolescents as catalysts for change. The model applies evidence-based core principles required for effective food education, such as action-oriented goals that align with a student's contexts, co-ownership of the learning process, prioritising experiential learning, ensuring purposeful interactions, complementarity with the school food environment and beyond, and meaningful involvement of actors that influence children's food practices and perspectives. The process for designing food education programmes is anchored in the food learning model and highlights the importance of selecting the right entry points in the formal school system, assessment of learning needs, co-formulating competences, and the need for continuous and purposeful assessments of students' learning. We highlight the key challenges beyond programme design that must be addressed to enhance the success of food education, including the need to strengthen systemic capacity and improve the wider policy environment.
学校食品教育正日益成为支持全世界向更健康和更可持续的食品做法转变的关键政策杠杆之一。然而,食品教育的设计和实施方式往往不利于实现这些目标。我们提出了一种食物学习模型和过程,用于设计整体食物教育,培养具有食物能力的儿童和青少年,作为变革的催化剂。该模式采用了有效食物教育所需的循证核心原则,如符合学生情况的以行动为导向的目标、学习过程的共同所有权、优先考虑体验式学习、确保有目的的互动、与学校食物环境及其他环境的互补性,以及影响儿童食物实践和观点的行为者的有意义参与。食品教育计划的设计过程以食品学习模式为基础,强调了在正规学校系统中选择正确的切入点、评估学习需求、共同制定能力以及对学生学习进行持续和有目的评估的必要性的重要性。我们强调了除了方案设计之外,必须解决的关键挑战,以提高粮食教育的成功,包括需要加强系统能力和改善更广泛的政策环境。
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引用次数: 0
The health, environmental, and cost implications of providing healthy and sustainable school meals for every child by 2030: a global modelling study 到2030年为每个儿童提供健康和可持续的校餐对健康、环境和成本的影响:一项全球模型研究。
IF 21.6 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.06.002
Prof Marco Springmann PhD , Manasi P Hansoge MSc , Linda Schultz MPH , Silvia Pastorino PhD , Prof Donald A P Bundy

Background

School meal programmes are thought to improve dietary behaviour in children, with benefits sustained throughout the life course, making them important catalysts for wider food-system change. However, only one in five children globally currently receives school meals. We estimated the potential effects of extending school meal coverage to all children by 2030 for dietary health; the environmental effects related to diets; and the costs of diets at global, regional, and national levels.

Methods

We conducted health, environmental, and cost assessments of future scenarios of school meal coverage, meal frequency, meal composition, and food wastage. In the health assessment, we used statistical methods and a comparative risk assessment to estimate short-term changes in undernourishment and long-term changes in dietary risks and mortality. In the environmental assessment, we used food-related environmental footprints to analyse how changes in dietary composition and food waste affect greenhouse gas emissions, land use, and freshwater use. In the cost assessment, we used an international dataset of food prices to estimate changes in diet costs, and we used estimates of the social cost of carbon and the costs of illness to estimate changes in the costs of climate-change damages and in health-related costs.

Findings

Extending school meal programmes to all children globally by 2030 could be associated with substantial health and environmental benefits globally and in each country. In the model assessments, the prevalence of undernourishment in food-insecure populations was reduced by a quarter due to having an additional meal at school; more than 1 million cases of non-communicable diseases were prevented globally per year if dietary habits were partly sustained into adulthood; and food-related environmental effects were halved if meal composition adhered to recommendations for healthy and sustainable diets and food waste was reduced. Increasing school meal coverage incurred additional meal-related costs that ranged from 0·1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in high-income countries to 1·0% of GDP in low-income countries. Reductions in the external costs of climate-change damages and the costs of illness compensated for the costs of providing meals in line with health and sustainable diets.

Interpretation

Universal school meal coverage could make important contributions to improving children’s health, the food security of their families, and the sustainability of food systems. However, dedicated policy and financial support will be required to close the gap in school meal coverage, especially in low-income countries.

Funding

Research Consortium for School Health and Nutrition.
背景:学校供餐计划被认为可以改善儿童的饮食行为,其益处持续整个生命过程,使其成为更广泛的食物系统变革的重要催化剂。然而,目前全球只有五分之一的儿童获得校餐。我们估计了到2030年将学校供餐覆盖范围扩大到所有儿童对饮食健康的潜在影响;与饮食有关的环境影响;以及全球、区域和国家各级的饮食成本。方法:我们对未来学校供餐覆盖率、供餐频率、供餐组成和食物浪费情况进行了健康、环境和成本评估。在健康评估中,我们使用统计方法和比较风险评估来估计营养不良的短期变化和饮食风险和死亡率的长期变化。在环境评估中,我们使用与食物相关的环境足迹来分析饮食成分和食物浪费的变化如何影响温室气体排放、土地利用和淡水利用。在成本评估中,我们使用国际食品价格数据集来估计饮食成本的变化,我们使用碳的社会成本和疾病成本的估计来估计气候变化损害成本和健康相关成本的变化。研究结果:到2030年将学校供餐方案扩大到全球所有儿童,可能会在全球和每个国家带来巨大的健康和环境效益。在模型评估中,由于在学校多吃了一顿饭,粮食不安全人口中营养不良的发生率降低了四分之一;如果饮食习惯部分维持到成年,全球每年可预防100多万例非传染性疾病;如果膳食成分符合健康和可持续饮食的建议,并减少食物浪费,与食物有关的环境影响就会减半。增加学校供餐覆盖率会产生额外的与膳食有关的费用,其范围从高收入国家占国内生产总值的0.1%到低收入国家占国内生产总值的1%不等。气候变化损害的外部成本和疾病成本的减少弥补了提供符合健康和可持续饮食的膳食的成本。解释:学校供餐全面覆盖可以为改善儿童健康、家庭粮食安全以及粮食系统的可持续性做出重要贡献。然而,需要专门的政策和财政支持来缩小学校供餐覆盖面的差距,特别是在低收入国家。资助:学校健康和营养研究联盟。
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引用次数: 0
Establishing an app-based heat-health warning system via collaboration with stakeholders 通过与利益相关者合作,建立基于应用程序的热健康预警系统
IF 21.6 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101356
Shih-Chun Candice Lung , Jou-Chen Joy Yeh , Jing-Shiang Hwang

Background

Amid global heating, establishing a heat-health warning system (HHWS) is crucial for reducing heat-related health risks. This paper presents an evidence-based HHWS app developed through stakeholder engagement.

Methods

Biometeorological, epidemiological, and risk communication challenges of heat-health risks across Taiwan were identified. To address these challenges we developed an app based HHWS, in collaboration with the Central Weather Administration and Health Promotion Administration in Taiwan.

Findings

Biometeorological results showed that the mean daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGTmax) was 33·1 ± 3·8°C at 20 stations across Taiwan but could reach or exceed 36°C (threshold of the dangerous category) at some hot spots for 42·3–52·0% of the days between May and October from 2016 to 2022. Hot spots and periods identified using WBGT would be missed if temperature alone was used as the heat indicator. The relative risk (RR) for the heat-related emergency visits was 1·83 (95% CI 1·68–1·99) on day 0 when WBGT exceeded 32·5°C across Taiwan, based on a modified generalised additive model. Children aged 0–14 years had the highest RR (8·32, 1·96–35·3) on day 0, compared to adults aged 15–64 years and older. For risk communication, the frequency of warnings was evaluated to avoid excessive alerts, which could desensitise the public and strain resources of the authorities responsible for executing timely responsive programmes.

Interpretation

The developed HHWS was embedded in a mobile phone app, which all residents in Taiwan can download.

Funding

National Science and Technology Council Executive Yuan, Taiwan.
在全球变暖的背景下,建立热健康预警系统(HHWS)对于降低热相关健康风险至关重要。本文介绍了通过利益相关者参与开发的基于证据的HHWS应用程序。方法分析台湾地区热健康风险的生物气象、流行病学和风险沟通挑战。为了应对这些挑战,我们与台湾的中央气象局和健康促进局合作,开发了一个基于HHWS的应用程序。结果:2016 ~ 2022年5 ~ 10月,台湾20个站点的平均日最高湿球温度(WBGTmax)为33.1±3.8°C,但部分热点地区在42.3% ~ 52.0%的时段达到或超过36°C(危险阈值)。如果仅使用温度作为热指标,则会错过使用WBGT识别的热点和时段。基于修正的广义加性模型,当WBGT超过32.5°C时,第0天台湾地区与热相关的急诊就诊的相对风险(RR)为1.83 (95% CI 1.68 ~ 1.99)。0 ~ 14岁儿童与15 ~ 64岁及以上成人相比,第0天的RR最高,分别为8.32、1.96 ~ 35.3。在风险通报方面,对警报的频率进行了评估,以避免警报过多,因为这可能使公众失去敏感性,并使负责执行及时响应方案的当局资源紧张。开发的HHWS嵌入了一个手机应用程序,所有台湾居民都可以下载。​
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Lancet Planetary Health
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