Pub Date : 2024-10-01DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00206-7
Iris Martine Blom MD , Fawzia N Rasheed PhD , Hardeep Singh MD , Matthew J Eckelman PhD , Meghnath Dhimal PhD , Martin Hensher PhD , Renzo R Guinto MD , Alice McGushin MBBS , Xuejuan Ning MHS , Poornima Prabhakaran PhD , Marina Romanello PhD , Dana van Alphen PhD , Nick Watts MBBS , Jessica C Yu PhD , Carol Zavaleta-Cortijo PhD , Andrea J MacNeill MD , Jodi D Sherman MD
A global initiative to develop low-carbon, resilient health systems—the COP26 Health Programme—launched at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) in 2021. As of May, 2024, 83 nations have committed to participate in this initiative. This analysis evaluates the effectiveness of existing and proposed indicators towards public monitoring and accountability to these commitments. Our findings reveal substantial gaps in data availability and indicator relevance, with many countries reporting process indicators that do not reflect actual progress towards achieving sustainable health-care systems. We found a dearth of suitable indicators and an urgent need to develop robust ones that are adaptable to different health-care system contexts. These indicators should be designed to capture tangible outcomes, support policy making, and prevent greenwashing. Integration of more robust indicators into independent scientific monitoring can support systematic inclusion of health care in global climate strategies, thereby enhancing the overall effectiveness of the COP26 Health Programme.
{"title":"Evaluating progress and accountability for achieving COP26 Health Programme international ambitions for sustainable, low-carbon, resilient health-care systems","authors":"Iris Martine Blom MD , Fawzia N Rasheed PhD , Hardeep Singh MD , Matthew J Eckelman PhD , Meghnath Dhimal PhD , Martin Hensher PhD , Renzo R Guinto MD , Alice McGushin MBBS , Xuejuan Ning MHS , Poornima Prabhakaran PhD , Marina Romanello PhD , Dana van Alphen PhD , Nick Watts MBBS , Jessica C Yu PhD , Carol Zavaleta-Cortijo PhD , Andrea J MacNeill MD , Jodi D Sherman MD","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00206-7","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00206-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A global initiative to develop low-carbon, resilient health systems—the COP26 Health Programme—launched at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) in 2021. As of May, 2024, 83 nations have committed to participate in this initiative. This analysis evaluates the effectiveness of existing and proposed indicators towards public monitoring and accountability to these commitments. Our findings reveal substantial gaps in data availability and indicator relevance, with many countries reporting process indicators that do not reflect actual progress towards achieving sustainable health-care systems. We found a dearth of suitable indicators and an urgent need to develop robust ones that are adaptable to different health-care system contexts. These indicators should be designed to capture tangible outcomes, support policy making, and prevent greenwashing. Integration of more robust indicators into independent scientific monitoring can support systematic inclusion of health care in global climate strategies, thereby enhancing the overall effectiveness of the COP26 Health Programme.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 10","pages":"Pages e778-e789"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142407048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-01DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00249-3
Cahal McQuillan
{"title":"Planetary Health Research Digest","authors":"Cahal McQuillan","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00249-3","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00249-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 10","pages":"Page e722"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142407050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-01DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00212-2
Prof Xavier Basagaña PhD , Joan Ballester PhD
Background
Exposure to environmental factors has a high burden on human health, with millions of premature annual deaths associated with the short-term health effects of ambient temperatures and air pollution. However, direct estimations of exposure-related mortality from real data are still not available in most parts of the world, especially in low-resource settings, due to the unavailability of daily health records to calibrate epidemiological models.
Methods
In this study, we have filled the crucial gap in available direct estimations by developing a method to make valid inference for the relationship between exposure and response data that uses only exposure and temporally aggregated response data. We provided the mathematical derivation of the method, and compared the results by using simulations applied to daily temperature and daily, weekly, and monthly mortality data. The method was then applied to the newly created database of the EARLY-ADAPT project.
Findings
The daily and weekly models produced similar and unbiased estimates of the temperature-related relative risks and attributable mortality, with only slightly more imprecision in the weekly model. Even the estimates of the monthly model were unbiased when using enough data, although at the expense of a substantial increase in variability. The real data analysis showed that the similarity between the regional values of two aggregation models increased with the number of years and regions of the dataset, and decreased with the difference in their degree of temporal aggregation.
Interpretation
Our method opens the door to conducting epidemiological studies in low-resource settings, where access to daily health data is not possible. Moreover, it allows accurate estimation of the short-term health effects of environmental exposures in near-real time, when daily health data are still not available, such as in the estimation of the mortality burden of recent record-breaking heat episodes. Overall, our method represents an important new approach to how the public health community can use data to create new evidence for research, translation and policy making.
{"title":"Unbiased temperature-related mortality estimates using weekly and monthly health data: a new method for environmental epidemiology and climate impact studies","authors":"Prof Xavier Basagaña PhD , Joan Ballester PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00212-2","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00212-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Exposure to environmental factors has a high burden on human health, with millions of premature annual deaths associated with the short-term health effects of ambient temperatures and air pollution. However, direct estimations of exposure-related mortality from real data are still not available in most parts of the world, especially in low-resource settings, due to the unavailability of daily health records to calibrate epidemiological models.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this study, we have filled the crucial gap in available direct estimations by developing a method to make valid inference for the relationship between exposure and response data that uses only exposure and temporally aggregated response data. We provided the mathematical derivation of the method, and compared the results by using simulations applied to daily temperature and daily, weekly, and monthly mortality data. The method was then applied to the newly created database of the EARLY-ADAPT project.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The daily and weekly models produced similar and unbiased estimates of the temperature-related relative risks and attributable mortality, with only slightly more imprecision in the weekly model. Even the estimates of the monthly model were unbiased when using enough data, although at the expense of a substantial increase in variability. The real data analysis showed that the similarity between the regional values of two aggregation models increased with the number of years and regions of the dataset, and decreased with the difference in their degree of temporal aggregation.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Our method opens the door to conducting epidemiological studies in low-resource settings, where access to daily health data is not possible. Moreover, it allows accurate estimation of the short-term health effects of environmental exposures in near-real time, when daily health data are still not available, such as in the estimation of the mortality burden of recent record-breaking heat episodes. Overall, our method represents an important new approach to how the public health community can use data to create new evidence for research, translation and policy making.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>European Research Council (ERC).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 10","pages":"Pages e766-e777"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142407053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Cooking with traditional fuels can lead to severe health issues caused by household air pollution, and can also affect gender equality and drive environmental degradation. In Nepal, despite government efforts to promote electric cooking, more than half of the population still uses traditional fuels, with electric cooking adoption remaining below 1%. Several of the barriers to and enablers of clean cooking vary geographically; however, few studies have considered spatial explicit information in planning national-scale transitions to clean cooking. In this study we provide a spatially explicit roadmap to estimate the required investments and benefits gained from the transition across Nepal.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This study uses geospatial modelling methods to evaluate strategies to achieve the Government of Nepal's vision for a national-scale transition to clean cooking. We integrate the open-source clean cooking geospatial assessment tool OnStove and a spatial multicriteria analysis model. With OnStove, we evaluate which cooking technologies and fuels maximise the net benefits of a clean-cooking transition across each km<sup>2</sup> of the region. With the multicriteria analysis, we weigh stakeholder preferences and prioritise areas of action where policy should be implemented. We used the most up-to-date geospatial data to the year 2023, such as the High Resolution Settlement Layer, Open Street Maps’ road networks, the Global Human Settlement Layer, NASA/USGS forest cover maps, and Facebook's Relative Wealth Index, among others. We also relied on data from the Nepal Oil Corporation, the Nepal Electricity Agency, the Central Bureau of Statistic's 2021 national census, and the Alternative Energy Promotion Center. We evaluate four scenarios capturing advances on clean cooking policy up to the year 2022, current market inefficiencies, and the potential effects of new policies for clean-cooking transition in Nepal.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Our results show that transitional and clean cooking technologies provide higher net benefits than traditional options everywhere across Nepal in all scenarios. Our net-benefit analysis shows that around 9563 deaths could be averted yearly if benefits and externalities were perceived and valued correctly. Furthermore, substantial benefits could be achieved in regard to greenhouse gas emissions avoidance, time saved, and health-cost reductions. Our results also show that the current subsidy strategy from the Government of Nepal is well aligned with the benefits achieved under a cost–benefit analysis. In this context, electric cooking can bring the highest benefits to the largest part of the population. The analysis showed how high subsidies for liquefied petroleum gas in Nepal can present trade-offs with energy security and independence, and how this could be avoided by transferring part of the subsidy to cover differentiated electric cooking tariffs. Accountin
{"title":"Achieving Nepal's clean cooking ambitions: an open source and geospatial cost–benefit analysis","authors":"Camilo Ramirez MSc , Babak Khavari PhD , Alicia Oberholzer MSc , Bhoj Raj Ghimire PhD , Bhogendra Mishra PhD , Santiago Sinclair-Lecaros MSc , Dimitris Mentis PhD , Anobha Gurung PhD , Dilip Khatiwada PhD , Francesco Fuso Nerini PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00209-2","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00209-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Cooking with traditional fuels can lead to severe health issues caused by household air pollution, and can also affect gender equality and drive environmental degradation. In Nepal, despite government efforts to promote electric cooking, more than half of the population still uses traditional fuels, with electric cooking adoption remaining below 1%. Several of the barriers to and enablers of clean cooking vary geographically; however, few studies have considered spatial explicit information in planning national-scale transitions to clean cooking. In this study we provide a spatially explicit roadmap to estimate the required investments and benefits gained from the transition across Nepal.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>This study uses geospatial modelling methods to evaluate strategies to achieve the Government of Nepal's vision for a national-scale transition to clean cooking. We integrate the open-source clean cooking geospatial assessment tool OnStove and a spatial multicriteria analysis model. With OnStove, we evaluate which cooking technologies and fuels maximise the net benefits of a clean-cooking transition across each km<sup>2</sup> of the region. With the multicriteria analysis, we weigh stakeholder preferences and prioritise areas of action where policy should be implemented. We used the most up-to-date geospatial data to the year 2023, such as the High Resolution Settlement Layer, Open Street Maps’ road networks, the Global Human Settlement Layer, NASA/USGS forest cover maps, and Facebook's Relative Wealth Index, among others. We also relied on data from the Nepal Oil Corporation, the Nepal Electricity Agency, the Central Bureau of Statistic's 2021 national census, and the Alternative Energy Promotion Center. We evaluate four scenarios capturing advances on clean cooking policy up to the year 2022, current market inefficiencies, and the potential effects of new policies for clean-cooking transition in Nepal.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Our results show that transitional and clean cooking technologies provide higher net benefits than traditional options everywhere across Nepal in all scenarios. Our net-benefit analysis shows that around 9563 deaths could be averted yearly if benefits and externalities were perceived and valued correctly. Furthermore, substantial benefits could be achieved in regard to greenhouse gas emissions avoidance, time saved, and health-cost reductions. Our results also show that the current subsidy strategy from the Government of Nepal is well aligned with the benefits achieved under a cost–benefit analysis. In this context, electric cooking can bring the highest benefits to the largest part of the population. The analysis showed how high subsidies for liquefied petroleum gas in Nepal can present trade-offs with energy security and independence, and how this could be avoided by transferring part of the subsidy to cover differentiated electric cooking tariffs. Accountin","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 10","pages":"Pages e754-e765"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142407029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-01DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00172-4
Richard M Oxborough PhD , Karen L Figueroa Chilito MSc , Filemon Tokponnon PhD , Louisa A Messenger PhD
Mass distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) has been a key factor in reducing malaria cases and deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. A shortcoming has been the over-reliance on pyrethroid insecticides, with more than 2·13 billion pyrethroid ITNs (PY ITNs) distributed in the past two decades, leading to widespread pyrethroid resistance. Progressive changes are occurring, with increased deployment of more effective pyrethroid-chlorfenapyr (PY-CFP) or pyrethroid-piperonyl butoxide (PY-PBO) ITNs in areas of pyrethroid resistance. In 2023, PY-PBO ITNs accounted for 58% of all ITNs shipped to sub-Saharan Africa. PY-PBO and PY-CFP ITNs are 30–37% more expensive than standard PY ITNs, equating to an additional US$132–159 million required per year in sub-Saharan Africa to fund the shift to more effective ITNs. Several countries are withdrawing or scaling back indoor residual spraying (IRS) programmes to cover the shortfall, which is reflected by the number of structures sprayed by the US President's Malaria Initiative decreasing by 30% from 5·67 million (2021) to 3·96 million (2023). Benin, located in West Africa, is a prime example of a country that ceased IRS in 2021 after 14 years of annual spraying. Our economic evaluation indicates that IRS in Benin cost $3·50 per person protected per year, around five times more per person protected per year compared with PY-PBO ($0·73) or PY-CFP ITNs ($0·76). Although costly to implement, a major advantage of IRS is the portfolio of at least three chemical classes for prospective resistance management. With loss of synergy to PBO developing rapidly, there is the danger of over-reliance on PY-CFP ITNs. As gains in global malaria control continue to reverse each year, current WHO projections estimate that key 2030 malaria incidence milestones will be missed by a staggering 89%. This Personal View explores contemporary malaria vector control trends in sub-Saharan Africa and cost implications for improved disease control and resistance management.
{"title":"Malaria vector control in sub-Saharan Africa: complex trade-offs to combat the growing threat of insecticide resistance","authors":"Richard M Oxborough PhD , Karen L Figueroa Chilito MSc , Filemon Tokponnon PhD , Louisa A Messenger PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00172-4","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00172-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mass distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) has been a key factor in reducing malaria cases and deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. A shortcoming has been the over-reliance on pyrethroid insecticides, with more than 2·13 billion pyrethroid ITNs (PY ITNs) distributed in the past two decades, leading to widespread pyrethroid resistance. Progressive changes are occurring, with increased deployment of more effective pyrethroid-chlorfenapyr (PY-CFP) or pyrethroid-piperonyl butoxide (PY-PBO) ITNs in areas of pyrethroid resistance. In 2023, PY-PBO ITNs accounted for 58% of all ITNs shipped to sub-Saharan Africa. PY-PBO and PY-CFP ITNs are 30–37% more expensive than standard PY ITNs, equating to an additional US$132–159 million required per year in sub-Saharan Africa to fund the shift to more effective ITNs. Several countries are withdrawing or scaling back indoor residual spraying (IRS) programmes to cover the shortfall, which is reflected by the number of structures sprayed by the US President's Malaria Initiative decreasing by 30% from 5·67 million (2021) to 3·96 million (2023). Benin, located in West Africa, is a prime example of a country that ceased IRS in 2021 after 14 years of annual spraying. Our economic evaluation indicates that IRS in Benin cost $3·50 per person protected per year, around five times more per person protected per year compared with PY-PBO ($0·73) or PY-CFP ITNs ($0·76). Although costly to implement, a major advantage of IRS is the portfolio of at least three chemical classes for prospective resistance management. With loss of synergy to PBO developing rapidly, there is the danger of over-reliance on PY-CFP ITNs. As gains in global malaria control continue to reverse each year, current WHO projections estimate that key 2030 malaria incidence milestones will be missed by a staggering 89%. This Personal View explores contemporary malaria vector control trends in sub-Saharan Africa and cost implications for improved disease control and resistance management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 10","pages":"Pages e804-e812"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142407049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-01DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00202-X
Jie Ban PhD , Kailai Lu MSc , Yuanyuan Liu , Jiawei Zang MSc , Zhen Zhou MSc , Can Zhang PhD , Zhao Liu PhD , Jianbin Huang PhD , Yidan Chen PhD , Prof Xuejie Gao PhD , Prof Ying Xu PhD , Prof Can Wang PhD , Prof Wenjia Cai PhD , Prof Peng Gong PhD , Prof Yong Luo PhD , Prof Tiantian Li PhD
Background
Climate-change-induced extreme precipitation events have attracted global attention; however, the associated excess deaths burden has been insufficiently explored and remains unclear.
Methods
We first defined an extreme precipitation event for each county when the daily total precipitation exceeded the county-specific 99·5th percentile of the daily precipitation from 1986 to 2005; then we estimated the associations between extreme precipitation events and cause-specific deaths in 280 Chinese counties using a two-stage time-series model. Second, we projected the excess deaths related to extreme precipitation events by combining the bias-corrected multi-model precipitation predictions derived under different combined emission-population scenarios of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP2·6, RCP4·5, and RCP8·5) and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2, a business-as-usual scenario) populations (S1, low fertility rate; S2, medium fertility rate; and S3, high fertility rate). We quantified the climate and population contributions to the changes of future excess deaths nationwide and by climatic zones.
Findings
Compared with the non-extreme precipitation days, the percentage increase of deaths associated with exposure to extreme precipitation days is 13·0% (95% CI 7·0–19·3) for accidental cause, 4·3% (2·0–6·6) for circulatory disease, and 6·8% (2·8–10·9) for respiratory disease. The number of annual average excess deaths related to extreme precipitation events during 1986–2005 was 2644 (95% CI 1496–3730) for accidental cause, 69 (33–105) for circulatory disease, and 181 (79–279) for respiratory disease. In the 2030s, the total number of excess deaths of these three causes will increase by 1244 (43%), 1756 (61%), and 2008 (69%) under RCP2·6, RCP4·5, and RCP8·5 scenarios combined with a medium-fertility-rate population (SSP2-S2), respectively, but will decrease by 3% under RCP2·6–SSP2-S2 and increase by 25% under RCP8·5–SSP2-S2 in the 2090s. Humid and water-limited regions in subtropical, middle-temperate, and plateau climate zones will face highly increased risks. Climate and population factors contributed disproportionally among the five climate zones.
Interpretation
This study is the largest integrated projection exploring the disease burden associated with extreme precipitation events. The excess deaths will be amplified by climate and population changes. Improving mitigation and adaptation capacities is crucial when responding to precipitation extremes.
Funding
National Natural Science Foundation of China and Wellcome Trust.
{"title":"Projecting future excess deaths associated with extreme precipitation events in China under changing climate: an integrated modelling study","authors":"Jie Ban PhD , Kailai Lu MSc , Yuanyuan Liu , Jiawei Zang MSc , Zhen Zhou MSc , Can Zhang PhD , Zhao Liu PhD , Jianbin Huang PhD , Yidan Chen PhD , Prof Xuejie Gao PhD , Prof Ying Xu PhD , Prof Can Wang PhD , Prof Wenjia Cai PhD , Prof Peng Gong PhD , Prof Yong Luo PhD , Prof Tiantian Li PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00202-X","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00202-X","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Climate-change-induced extreme precipitation events have attracted global attention; however, the associated excess deaths burden has been insufficiently explored and remains unclear.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We first defined an extreme precipitation event for each county when the daily total precipitation exceeded the county-specific 99·5th percentile of the daily precipitation from 1986 to 2005; then we estimated the associations between extreme precipitation events and cause-specific deaths in 280 Chinese counties using a two-stage time-series model. Second, we projected the excess deaths related to extreme precipitation events by combining the bias-corrected multi-model precipitation predictions derived under different combined emission-population scenarios of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP2·6, RCP4·5, and RCP8·5) and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2, a business-as-usual scenario) populations (S1, low fertility rate; S2, medium fertility rate; and S3, high fertility rate). We quantified the climate and population contributions to the changes of future excess deaths nationwide and by climatic zones.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Compared with the non-extreme precipitation days, the percentage increase of deaths associated with exposure to extreme precipitation days is 13·0% (95% CI 7·0–19·3) for accidental cause, 4·3% (2·0–6·6) for circulatory disease, and 6·8% (2·8–10·9) for respiratory disease. The number of annual average excess deaths related to extreme precipitation events during 1986–2005 was 2644 (95% CI 1496–3730) for accidental cause, 69 (33–105) for circulatory disease, and 181 (79–279) for respiratory disease. In the 2030s, the total number of excess deaths of these three causes will increase by 1244 (43%), 1756 (61%), and 2008 (69%) under RCP2·6, RCP4·5, and RCP8·5 scenarios combined with a medium-fertility-rate population (SSP2-S2), respectively, but will decrease by 3% under RCP2·6–SSP2-S2 and increase by 25% under RCP8·5–SSP2-S2 in the 2090s. Humid and water-limited regions in subtropical, middle-temperate, and plateau climate zones will face highly increased risks. Climate and population factors contributed disproportionally among the five climate zones.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>This study is the largest integrated projection exploring the disease burden associated with extreme precipitation events. The excess deaths will be amplified by climate and population changes. Improving mitigation and adaptation capacities is crucial when responding to precipitation extremes.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>National Natural Science Foundation of China and Wellcome Trust.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 10","pages":"Pages e723-e733"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142407051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-01DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00201-8
Prof Ding Ding PhD , Mengyun Luo PhD , Maria Florencia Petrelli Infante MSc , Lucy Gunn PhD , Deborah Salvo PhD , Belen Zapata-Diomedi PhD , Prof Ben Smith PhD , Prof William Bellew PhD , Prof Adrian Bauman PhD , Tracy Nau BSc , Binh Nguyen PhD
Active travel is a widely recognised strategy for promoting active living but its co-benefits beyond increasing physical activity, such as broader health, environmental, and social benefits, have rarely been synthesised. We conducted a systematic review to examine the co-benefits of active travel interventions. Following a preregistered protocol (PROSPERO CRD42022359059), we identified 80 studies for the search period from Jan 1, 2000, to Sept 13, 2022. Across studies, there was consistent evidence that active travel interventions offered co-benefits beyond physical activity. Particularly, 25 (71%) of 35 studies favoured improved safety outcomes, 20 (67%) of 30 showed improved health, 17 (85%) of 20 supported economic benefits, 16 (84%) of 19 highlighted improved transport quality, 12 (92%) of 13 showed environmental benefits, and four (80%) of five documented social benefits. Despite the overall low-certainty evidence, mostly limited by the quasi-experimental design and natural-experimental design of many of the studies, active travel interventions offer unique opportunities to engage stakeholders across sectors to jointly address major societal issues, such as physical inactivity, traffic safety, and carbon emissions. This evidence can inform the design, implementation, and evaluation of active travel interventions.
{"title":"The co-benefits of active travel interventions beyond physical activity: a systematic review","authors":"Prof Ding Ding PhD , Mengyun Luo PhD , Maria Florencia Petrelli Infante MSc , Lucy Gunn PhD , Deborah Salvo PhD , Belen Zapata-Diomedi PhD , Prof Ben Smith PhD , Prof William Bellew PhD , Prof Adrian Bauman PhD , Tracy Nau BSc , Binh Nguyen PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00201-8","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00201-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Active travel is a widely recognised strategy for promoting active living but its co-benefits beyond increasing physical activity, such as broader health, environmental, and social benefits, have rarely been synthesised. We conducted a systematic review to examine the co-benefits of active travel interventions. Following a preregistered protocol (PROSPERO CRD42022359059), we identified 80 studies for the search period from Jan 1, 2000, to Sept 13, 2022. Across studies, there was consistent evidence that active travel interventions offered co-benefits beyond physical activity. Particularly, 25 (71%) of 35 studies favoured improved safety outcomes, 20 (67%) of 30 showed improved health, 17 (85%) of 20 supported economic benefits, 16 (84%) of 19 highlighted improved transport quality, 12 (92%) of 13 showed environmental benefits, and four (80%) of five documented social benefits. Despite the overall low-certainty evidence, mostly limited by the quasi-experimental design and natural-experimental design of many of the studies, active travel interventions offer unique opportunities to engage stakeholders across sectors to jointly address major societal issues, such as physical inactivity, traffic safety, and carbon emissions. This evidence can inform the design, implementation, and evaluation of active travel interventions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 10","pages":"Pages e790-e803"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142407052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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