Pub Date : 2026-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101379
Sandrah P Eckel PhD , Futu Chen PhD , Sam J Silva PhD , Daniel L Goldberg PhD , Jill Johnston PhD , Lawrence A Palinkas PhD , Alberto Campos MSW , Wilma Franco EdD , Erika Garcia PhD
Background
Electrifying the transportation sector is a key climate-change mitigation strategy. Reductions in exhaust emissions have anticipated air quality co-benefits; yet, evidence is primarily based on projections. Using observed data in California, USA, we aimed to investigate whether reductions in exhaust emissions from the transition to zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs: battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell) were detectable using Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) air pollution.
Methods
In this longitudinal observational study, we combined data from 2019 to 2023 on annual light-duty ZEV registrations in 1692 California ZIP code tabulation areas (ZCTAs; cross-walked from ZIP codes) with annual mean TROPOMI-measured NO2. We used longitudinal linear mixed-effects models to assess the association between within-ZCTA ZEV changes and within-ZCTA NO2 changes, adjusting for temporal trends and time-varying potential confounding, or excluding 2020. In positive control analyses, we related internal combustion engine vehicle registrations to NO2. In ground-truth analyses, we related ZEVs to NO2 concentrations using 123 Environmental Protection Agency monitors from 2012 to 2023.
Findings
The median within-ZCTA increase in ZEVs from 2019 to 2023 was 272 (IQR 18 to 839). A within-ZCTA increase of 200 ZEVs was associated with a 1·10% (95% CI −1·19 to −1·00) decrease in annual average NO2. The main findings were supported by sensitivity analyses (–1·32% [–1·43 to –1·21] when excluding the year 2020), ground-truth analysis (–0·87% [–1·76 to 0·03] using NO2 from ground-level monitors), and positive control analysis (0·80% [0·63 to 0·97] increase in annual average NO2 per 800 increase in number of internal combustion engine vehicles).
Interpretation
Using a natural experiment, we found that within-ZCTA increases in ZEV registrations were associated with reductions in NO2 air pollution measured by satellite and replicated with ground-level monitors. This work in California serves as a proof-of-principle for future work using satellite-measured NO2 to quantify effects of climate-change mitigation efforts on combustion-related air pollution within the USA and internationally.
Funding
National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program.
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Pub Date : 2025-12-23DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101421
Cahal McQuillan
{"title":"Planetary Health Research Digest.","authors":"Cahal McQuillan","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101421","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101421","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":" ","pages":"101421"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145844405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101375
Inge Schrijver MA , Prof Paul Behrens PhD , Rutger Hoekstra PhD , Prof René Kleijn PhD
Climate change has broad and deep impacts on people’s wellbeing; yet, these dynamics are largely excluded from integrated environment–society–economy (ESE) models. In this Review, we provide an overview of climate change–wellbeing impact pathways and explore which of these pathways have been quantified or modelled, or both. We assessed literature reviews and meta-analyses to describe how climate change affects specific wellbeing outcomes and which of these relationships are robust and amenable to parametrisation. We also conducted a review of 18 models that include one or more wellbeing impacts of climate change. Generally, more quantified pathways are available in the literature than those currently incorporated in ESE models. Temperature-related mortality, food security, and GDP are well represented in quantitative literature and to some extent in ESE models, whereas the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases; respiratory, cardiovascular, and neurological outcomes; mental health; adverse birth outcomes; occupational health and labour productivity; conflict; migration; poverty; air quality; and biodiversity loss have been quantified in the literature but are largely absent in ESE models. These relationships present promising steps towards a next generation of ESE models that could include more sophisticated interactions between environmental impacts and wellbeing.
{"title":"Inclusion of wellbeing impacts of climate change: a review of literature and integrated environment–society–economy models","authors":"Inge Schrijver MA , Prof Paul Behrens PhD , Rutger Hoekstra PhD , Prof René Kleijn PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101375","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101375","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has broad and deep impacts on people’s wellbeing; yet, these dynamics are largely excluded from integrated environment–society–economy (ESE) models. In this Review, we provide an overview of climate change–wellbeing impact pathways and explore which of these pathways have been quantified or modelled, or both. We assessed literature reviews and meta-analyses to describe how climate change affects specific wellbeing outcomes and which of these relationships are robust and amenable to parametrisation. We also conducted a review of 18 models that include one or more wellbeing impacts of climate change. Generally, more quantified pathways are available in the literature than those currently incorporated in ESE models. Temperature-related mortality, food security, and GDP are well represented in quantitative literature and to some extent in ESE models, whereas the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases; respiratory, cardiovascular, and neurological outcomes; mental health; adverse birth outcomes; occupational health and labour productivity; conflict; migration; poverty; air quality; and biodiversity loss have been quantified in the literature but are largely absent in ESE models. These relationships present promising steps towards a next generation of ESE models that could include more sophisticated interactions between environmental impacts and wellbeing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 12","pages":"Article 101375"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145641350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Synthetic phenols are widely used chemicals with potential neurodevelopmental toxicity. Human studies are often limited by small sample sizes and exposure misclassification. Identifying the biological pathways affected by these substances is crucial for understanding key drivers of toxicity. We aimed to study associations between prenatal exposure to synthetic phenols and child behaviour, exploring the potential mediating role of maternal steroid hormones.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We pooled data from two European cohorts: the Barcelona Life Study Cohort (BiSC; Barcelona, Spain, 2018–21, N=1080) and Suivi de l’Exposition à la Pollution Atmosphérique durant la Grossesse et Effets sur la Santé (SEPAGES; Grenoble, France, 2014–17, N=484). Mothers older than 18 years having a singleton pregnancy of less than 19 weeks gestational age were eligible for inclusion in the cohorts; those having multiple pregnancies were excluded. Repeated urine samples (up to 24 in BiSC; up to 42 in SEPAGES) collected in the second and third trimesters were pooled and analysed for 12 synthetic phenols. Child behavioural outcomes were assessed at 18 months in BiSC and 24 months in SEPAGES using the Child Behavior Checklist for Ages 1·5–5 (CBCL). Concentrations of total cortisol, total cortisone, and 11-dehydrocorticosterone—steroid hormones involved in the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis—were measured from maternal hair samples. Associations between phenol exposure and behavioural outcomes were estimated by adjusted linear regression analysis, and mediation by steroid hormones was assessed with regression-based causal mediation analysis within the counterfactual framework.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>1024 mother–child pairs were included in the study: 607 from BiSC and 417 from SEPAGES. Maternal exposure to methylparaben in the third trimester of pregnancy was associated with higher internalising scores (change in score of 0·44 [95% CI 0·10–0·79] points) and externalising scores (0·67 [0·12–1·24]) in the CBCL. In boys, maternal exposure to bisphenol S in the third trimester was linked to increased internalising scores (0·92 [0·15 to 1·75]; p=0·019) and could be linked to increased externalising scores (1·14 [−0·09 to 2·44]; p=0·070). In girls, second-trimester butylparaben and propylparaben exposure were associated with lower internalising (−1·03 [−1·84 to −0·09], p=0·033) and externalising (−0·68 [−1·23 to −0·12]; p=0·019) scores. No mediation by steroid hormones was observed.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Prenatal exposure to phenols might influence early behavioural development, with sex-specific patterns. There was no strong evidence of mediation by maternal steroid hormones, suggesting the involvement of alternative pathways in the biological effects of phenols. Together with previous findings, these results highlight the need for stricter regulation of these compounds to reduce prenatal exposure.</div
背景：合成酚是一种应用广泛的化学物质，具有潜在的神经发育毒性。人体研究经常受到样本量小和暴露错误分类的限制。确定受这些物质影响的生物途径对于理解毒性的关键驱动因素至关重要。我们的目的是研究产前暴露于合成酚和儿童行为之间的关系，探索母体类固醇激素的潜在中介作用。方法：我们汇集了来自两个欧洲队列的数据：巴塞罗那生活研究队列（BiSC；巴塞罗那，西班牙，2018-21，N=1080）和Suivi de l'Exposition la Pollution atmosprique durant la Grossesse et Effets sur la sant （SEPAGES；格勒诺布尔，法国，2014-17，N=484）。年龄大于18岁且单胎妊娠小于19周的母亲有资格纳入队列；多胎妊娠者被排除在外。在妊娠中期和晚期收集的重复尿液样本（BiSC最多24份，SEPAGES最多42份）汇总并分析了12种合成酚。使用儿童行为检查表（CBCL）对18个月大的BiSC和24个月大的SEPAGES的儿童行为结果进行评估。总皮质醇、总可的松和参与下丘脑-垂体-肾上腺轴的11-脱氢皮质酮类固醇激素的浓度从母体头发样本中测量。通过调整线性回归分析估计苯酚暴露与行为结果之间的关系，并在反事实框架内使用基于回归的因果中介分析评估类固醇激素的中介作用。研究结果：1024对母子纳入研究：607对来自BiSC， 417对来自SEPAGES。孕妇在妊娠晚期接触对羟基苯甲酸甲酯与CBCL中较高的内化评分（0.44 [95% CI 0.10 - 0.79]分）和外化评分（0.67[0.12 - 1.24]）相关。在男孩中，母亲在妊娠晚期暴露于双酚S与内化得分增加有关（0.92[0.15至1.75];p= 0.019），并可能与外化得分增加有关（1.14[- 0.09至2.44];p= 0.070）。在女孩中，妊娠中期暴露于对羟基苯甲酸丁酯和对羟基苯甲酸丙酯与较低的内化（-1·03[-1·84至-0·09]，p= 0.033）和外化（-0·68[-1·23至-0·12]，p= 0.019）评分相关。未观察到类固醇激素的介导作用。解释：产前接触酚类物质可能影响早期行为发育，并具有性别特异性模式。没有强有力的证据表明母体类固醇激素介导，这表明酚类物质的生物学效应有其他途径参与。与先前的研究结果一起，这些结果强调了对这些化合物进行更严格监管以减少产前暴露的必要性。资助：法国食品、环境和职业健康与安全局、欧盟“地平线2020”研究和创新方案以及法国基金-法国基金会。
{"title":"Prenatal phenol exposure and child behaviour: insights into the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis from two prospective mother–child cohorts","authors":"Matthieu Rolland MSc , Mariona Bustamante PhD , Paulina Jedynak PhD , Cathrine Thomsen PhD , Amrit K Sakhi PhD , Maria Foraster PhD , Mireia Gascon PhD , Maria Dolores Gómez-Roig MD PhD , Elisa Llurba MD PhD , Ioar Rivas PhD , Isabelle Ouellet-Morin PhD , Muriel Ferrer MSc , Alex Morillas MSc , Sylvain Carras PhD , Sam Bayat MD PhD , Sarah Lyon-Caen MSc , Oscar J Pozo PhD , Martine Vrijheid PhD , Jordi Sunyer MD PhD , Rémy Slama PhD , Claire Philippat PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101330","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101330","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Synthetic phenols are widely used chemicals with potential neurodevelopmental toxicity. Human studies are often limited by small sample sizes and exposure misclassification. Identifying the biological pathways affected by these substances is crucial for understanding key drivers of toxicity. We aimed to study associations between prenatal exposure to synthetic phenols and child behaviour, exploring the potential mediating role of maternal steroid hormones.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We pooled data from two European cohorts: the Barcelona Life Study Cohort (BiSC; Barcelona, Spain, 2018–21, N=1080) and Suivi de l’Exposition à la Pollution Atmosphérique durant la Grossesse et Effets sur la Santé (SEPAGES; Grenoble, France, 2014–17, N=484). Mothers older than 18 years having a singleton pregnancy of less than 19 weeks gestational age were eligible for inclusion in the cohorts; those having multiple pregnancies were excluded. Repeated urine samples (up to 24 in BiSC; up to 42 in SEPAGES) collected in the second and third trimesters were pooled and analysed for 12 synthetic phenols. Child behavioural outcomes were assessed at 18 months in BiSC and 24 months in SEPAGES using the Child Behavior Checklist for Ages 1·5–5 (CBCL). Concentrations of total cortisol, total cortisone, and 11-dehydrocorticosterone—steroid hormones involved in the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis—were measured from maternal hair samples. Associations between phenol exposure and behavioural outcomes were estimated by adjusted linear regression analysis, and mediation by steroid hormones was assessed with regression-based causal mediation analysis within the counterfactual framework.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>1024 mother–child pairs were included in the study: 607 from BiSC and 417 from SEPAGES. Maternal exposure to methylparaben in the third trimester of pregnancy was associated with higher internalising scores (change in score of 0·44 [95% CI 0·10–0·79] points) and externalising scores (0·67 [0·12–1·24]) in the CBCL. In boys, maternal exposure to bisphenol S in the third trimester was linked to increased internalising scores (0·92 [0·15 to 1·75]; p=0·019) and could be linked to increased externalising scores (1·14 [−0·09 to 2·44]; p=0·070). In girls, second-trimester butylparaben and propylparaben exposure were associated with lower internalising (−1·03 [−1·84 to −0·09], p=0·033) and externalising (−0·68 [−1·23 to −0·12]; p=0·019) scores. No mediation by steroid hormones was observed.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Prenatal exposure to phenols might influence early behavioural development, with sex-specific patterns. There was no strong evidence of mediation by maternal steroid hormones, suggesting the involvement of alternative pathways in the biological effects of phenols. Together with previous findings, these results highlight the need for stricter regulation of these compounds to reduce prenatal exposure.</div","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 12","pages":"Article 101330"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145745198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101382
Megan B Sheahan MS , Mathew Hauer PhD , Valerie Mueller PhD , Glenn Sheriff PhD , Charles Fant PhD , Isabel Holland MS , Marcus C Sarofim PhD , Corinne Hartin PhD , James E Neumann MPA
Background
Studies have documented the effect of increased nuisance high-tide flooding on traffic disruption and delays as well as infrastructure maintenance and repair costs. Recent research suggests that high-tide flooding is also associated with more extreme outcomes, including increased mortality risk among adults aged 65 years and older. The aim of this study was to leverage these new findings to project future premature deaths and associated economic costs among older adults in coastal areas of the USA throughout the 21st century under various climate change scenarios.
Methods
We estimated the relationship between global sea level rise and high-tide flooding. We then employed five projections of relative mean sea level from the Fifth National Climate Assessment to develop a probabilistic distribution of high-tide flooding scenarios. Combining population and baseline mortality projections with published estimates of the association between high-tide flooding and premature mortality among adults aged 65 years and older in Florida, USA, we generated a distribution of predicted high-tide flooding mortality impacts across coastal areas of the USA. Because this analysis assumes no change in adaptation strategies, we also presented a stylised scenario that assumes additional action is taken to limit mortality risk.
Findings
Our main specification (without additional adaptation) anticipates approximately 230 additional deaths of older adults per year in 2020 relative to 2005, corresponding to monetised damages of US$3·1 billion. By 2100, the model projects nearly 10 000 additional deaths in this age group per year under the same scenario, a 43-fold increase relative to modelled 2005 levels. With some protective measures, the model predicts 5700 additional premature deaths, representing a 57% reduction relative to the main results.
Interpretation
The cost of premature mortality in older adults is greater in magnitude than other modelled effects of climate-induced high-tide flooding (eg, value of lost time due to traffic delays). Results suggest further action is needed to (1) identify and protect components of road networks critical for emergency access, (2) build additional, more accessible critical care delivery facilities, and (3) manage the retreat of vulnerable populations to areas with better access to critical care facilities.
{"title":"Projections of future mortality risk in older adults from high-tide flooding in coastal areas of the USA: an economic modelling study","authors":"Megan B Sheahan MS , Mathew Hauer PhD , Valerie Mueller PhD , Glenn Sheriff PhD , Charles Fant PhD , Isabel Holland MS , Marcus C Sarofim PhD , Corinne Hartin PhD , James E Neumann MPA","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101382","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101382","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Studies have documented the effect of increased nuisance high-tide flooding on traffic disruption and delays as well as infrastructure maintenance and repair costs. Recent research suggests that high-tide flooding is also associated with more extreme outcomes, including increased mortality risk among adults aged 65 years and older. The aim of this study was to leverage these new findings to project future premature deaths and associated economic costs among older adults in coastal areas of the USA throughout the 21st century under various climate change scenarios.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We estimated the relationship between global sea level rise and high-tide flooding. We then employed five projections of relative mean sea level from the Fifth National Climate Assessment to develop a probabilistic distribution of high-tide flooding scenarios. Combining population and baseline mortality projections with published estimates of the association between high-tide flooding and premature mortality among adults aged 65 years and older in Florida, USA, we generated a distribution of predicted high-tide flooding mortality impacts across coastal areas of the USA. Because this analysis assumes no change in adaptation strategies, we also presented a stylised scenario that assumes additional action is taken to limit mortality risk.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Our main specification (without additional adaptation) anticipates approximately 230 additional deaths of older adults per year in 2020 relative to 2005, corresponding to monetised damages of US$3·1 billion. By 2100, the model projects nearly 10 000 additional deaths in this age group per year under the same scenario, a 43-fold increase relative to modelled 2005 levels. With some protective measures, the model predicts 5700 additional premature deaths, representing a 57% reduction relative to the main results.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>The cost of premature mortality in older adults is greater in magnitude than other modelled effects of climate-induced high-tide flooding (eg, value of lost time due to traffic delays). Results suggest further action is needed to (1) identify and protect components of road networks critical for emergency access, (2) build additional, more accessible critical care delivery facilities, and (3) manage the retreat of vulnerable populations to areas with better access to critical care facilities.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>US Environmental Protection Agency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 12","pages":"Article 101382"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145844459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101383
Yohannes Tefera Damtew PhD , Blesson Mathew Varghese PhD , Olga Anikeeva PhD , Michael Tong PhD , Alana Hansen PhD , Prof Keith Dear PhD , Ying Zhang PhD , Prof Tim Driscoll PhD , Prof Tony Capon PhD , Michelle Gourley BS , Vanessa Prescott PhD , Prof Peng Bi PhD
Background
Salmonella and Campylobacter infections are leading causes of bacterial gastrointestinal infections, with rising global incidence. Rising temperatures are expected to further drive the transmission and prevalence of enteric infections. Quantifying the current and future burden of Salmonella and Campylobacter infections is crucial for guiding prevention strategies. This study aimed to assess the present and projected burden of Salmonella and Campylobacter infections attributable to rising temperatures in Australia.
Methods
In this comparative risk assessment modelling study, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with Salmonella and Campylobacter infections from 2003 to 2018 were acquired from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and analysed. A meta-regression model was employed to estimate the increase in infection risk per 1°C rise in temperature. Exposure distributions for each Köppen–Geiger climate zone were calculated and compared with the theoretical minimum risk exposure to establish the burden attributable to rising temperatures. Projected burdens for the 2030s and 2050s were assessed under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), considering population growth and adaptation scenarios.
Findings
Between 2003 and 2018, rising temperatures attributed to 11% (41·8 [SD 2·8] DALYs) of Salmonella and 8% (28·1 [1·8] DALYs) of Campylobacter burden. The highest burden was in the tropical rainforest climate zone. By the 2050s, under RCP8.5 and medium population growth without adaptation, Salmonella and Campylobacter burdens could reach 100·6 (10·9) and 67·9 (7·4) DALYs, respectively. A 10% adaptation measure could reduce these to 89·5 (8·3) and 61·8 (6·7) DALYs.
Interpretation
This study presents the first national assessment of the temperature-attributable burden of Salmonella and Campylobacter infections in Australia. It addresses a substantial knowledge gap by providing data-driven projections and underscores the necessity for targeted public health interventions and region-specific climate adaptation strategies to mitigate enteric infection risks.
{"title":"Estimating non-optimal temperature-attributable burden of Salmonella and Campylobacter infections under various climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Australia: a comparative risk assessment modelling study","authors":"Yohannes Tefera Damtew PhD , Blesson Mathew Varghese PhD , Olga Anikeeva PhD , Michael Tong PhD , Alana Hansen PhD , Prof Keith Dear PhD , Ying Zhang PhD , Prof Tim Driscoll PhD , Prof Tony Capon PhD , Michelle Gourley BS , Vanessa Prescott PhD , Prof Peng Bi PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101383","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101383","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div><em>Salmonella</em> and <em>Campylobacter</em> infections are leading causes of bacterial gastrointestinal infections, with rising global incidence. Rising temperatures are expected to further drive the transmission and prevalence of enteric infections. Quantifying the current and future burden of <em>Salmonella</em> and <em>Campylobacter</em> infections is crucial for guiding prevention strategies. This study aimed to assess the present and projected burden of <em>Salmonella</em> and <em>Campylobacter</em> infections attributable to rising temperatures in Australia.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this comparative risk assessment modelling study, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with <em>Salmonella</em> and <em>Campylobacter</em> infections from 2003 to 2018 were acquired from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and analysed. A meta-regression model was employed to estimate the increase in infection risk per 1°C rise in temperature. Exposure distributions for each Köppen–Geiger climate zone were calculated and compared with the theoretical minimum risk exposure to establish the burden attributable to rising temperatures. Projected burdens for the 2030s and 2050s were assessed under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), considering population growth and adaptation scenarios.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Between 2003 and 2018, rising temperatures attributed to 11% (41·8 [SD 2·8] DALYs) of <em>Salmonella</em> and 8% (28·1 [1·8] DALYs) of <em>Campylobacter</em> burden. The highest burden was in the tropical rainforest climate zone. By the 2050s, under RCP8.5 and medium population growth without adaptation, <em>Salmonella</em> and <em>Campylobacter</em> burdens could reach 100·6 (10·9) and 67·9 (7·4) DALYs, respectively. A 10% adaptation measure could reduce these to 89·5 (8·3) and 61·8 (6·7) DALYs.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>This study presents the first national assessment of the temperature-attributable burden of <em>Salmonella</em> and <em>Campylobacter</em> infections in Australia. It addresses a substantial knowledge gap by providing data-driven projections and underscores the necessity for targeted public health interventions and region-specific climate adaptation strategies to mitigate enteric infection risks.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>Australian Research Council Discovery Program.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 12","pages":"Article 101383"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145844439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101324
Allison R Sherris PhD , Logan C Dearborn MPH , Dana E Goin PhD , Christine T Loftus PhD , Prof Adam A Szpiro PhD , Joan A Casey PhD , Sindana D Ilango PhD , Jyoti Angal PhD , Prof Deborah H Bennett PhD , Miatta A Buxton PhD , Prof Carlos A Camargo Jr MD DrPH , Prof Kecia N Carroll MD , Marissa L Childs PhD , Camille Cioffi PhD , Lisa A Croen PhD , Prof Dana Dabelea MD PhD , Stephanie M Eick PhD , Shohreh F Farzan PhD , Assiamira Ferrara MD PhD , Erika Garcia PhD , Amy M Padula PhD
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Exposure to PM<sub>2·5</sub> from wildfire smoke during pregnancy has been implicated as a risk factor for preterm birth. We investigated this association in the prospective nationwide US Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) Cohort, focusing on prenatal wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> exposure intensity, duration, and timing.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this cohort analysis, we included live singleton births recorded in the ECHO Cohort with available data on gestational age at birth and birthweight and dates of conception between Jan 1, 2006, and March 20, 2020. Census tract-level estimates of daily mean wildfire-derived PM<sub>2·5</sub> for the years 2006–20 from a previous machine learning model were linked to residential address history. We calculated the mean concentration of daily wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub>, days with wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> (>0, ≥2·5, ≥5·0, and ≥10·0 μg/m<sup>3</sup>; termed smoke days) and consecutive smoke days (2, 3, or ≥4 days; termed smoke waves) above the prespecified concentration thresholds across pregnancy. Associations of cumlative pregnancy wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> exposure with preterm birth (delivery before 37 weeks of gestation) were analysed by adjusted pooled logistic regression in the nationwide ECHO sample and in the US West census region. Associations between smoke days in gestational weeks 0–35 and preterm birth were evaluated by logistic regression in the national sample.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>We included 20 034 births from 30 ECHO Cohort study sites, with residences during pregnancy in all 48 contiguous US states and the District of Columbia. 1687 (8·4%) of the 20 034 infants were preterm. The mean daily wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> concentration during pregnancy was 0·36 μg/m<sup>3</sup> (SD 0·46), with exposure to a mean of 22·2 smoke days (SD 16·6) of any wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> concentration (>0 μg/m<sup>3</sup>). Estimates of association between wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> exposure metrics and preterm birth included the null in nationwide analyses; whereas, in the US West sample (N=5807), we estimated increased odds of preterm birth associated with mean daily wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> (odds ratio [OR] 1·139 per 1-μg/m<sup>3</sup> increase [95% CI 1·001–1·296]), exposure to smoke days with a wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> concentration of 5·0 μg/m<sup>3</sup> or greater (OR 1·018 per additional smoke day [1·003–1·032]) and 10·0 μg/m<sup>3</sup> or greater (OR 1·030 [1·006–1·054]), and exposure to ≥4-day smoke waves of 5·0 μg/m<sup>3</sup> or greater (OR 1·185 per additional smoke wave [1·044–1·347]) and 10·0 μg/m<sup>3</sup> or greater (OR 1·232 [1·029–1·475]). At the national level, by week of gestation, associations with preterm birth were observed in mid-pregnancy for smoke days with wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> concentrations above 0 μg/m<sup>3</sup>, of 2·5 μg/m<sup>3</sup> or greater, and of 5·0 μg/m<sup>3</sup> or greater, a
{"title":"Wildfire-specific fine particulate matter and preterm birth: a US ECHO Cohort analysis","authors":"Allison R Sherris PhD , Logan C Dearborn MPH , Dana E Goin PhD , Christine T Loftus PhD , Prof Adam A Szpiro PhD , Joan A Casey PhD , Sindana D Ilango PhD , Jyoti Angal PhD , Prof Deborah H Bennett PhD , Miatta A Buxton PhD , Prof Carlos A Camargo Jr MD DrPH , Prof Kecia N Carroll MD , Marissa L Childs PhD , Camille Cioffi PhD , Lisa A Croen PhD , Prof Dana Dabelea MD PhD , Stephanie M Eick PhD , Shohreh F Farzan PhD , Assiamira Ferrara MD PhD , Erika Garcia PhD , Amy M Padula PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101324","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101324","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Exposure to PM<sub>2·5</sub> from wildfire smoke during pregnancy has been implicated as a risk factor for preterm birth. We investigated this association in the prospective nationwide US Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) Cohort, focusing on prenatal wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> exposure intensity, duration, and timing.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this cohort analysis, we included live singleton births recorded in the ECHO Cohort with available data on gestational age at birth and birthweight and dates of conception between Jan 1, 2006, and March 20, 2020. Census tract-level estimates of daily mean wildfire-derived PM<sub>2·5</sub> for the years 2006–20 from a previous machine learning model were linked to residential address history. We calculated the mean concentration of daily wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub>, days with wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> (>0, ≥2·5, ≥5·0, and ≥10·0 μg/m<sup>3</sup>; termed smoke days) and consecutive smoke days (2, 3, or ≥4 days; termed smoke waves) above the prespecified concentration thresholds across pregnancy. Associations of cumlative pregnancy wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> exposure with preterm birth (delivery before 37 weeks of gestation) were analysed by adjusted pooled logistic regression in the nationwide ECHO sample and in the US West census region. Associations between smoke days in gestational weeks 0–35 and preterm birth were evaluated by logistic regression in the national sample.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>We included 20 034 births from 30 ECHO Cohort study sites, with residences during pregnancy in all 48 contiguous US states and the District of Columbia. 1687 (8·4%) of the 20 034 infants were preterm. The mean daily wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> concentration during pregnancy was 0·36 μg/m<sup>3</sup> (SD 0·46), with exposure to a mean of 22·2 smoke days (SD 16·6) of any wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> concentration (>0 μg/m<sup>3</sup>). Estimates of association between wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> exposure metrics and preterm birth included the null in nationwide analyses; whereas, in the US West sample (N=5807), we estimated increased odds of preterm birth associated with mean daily wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> (odds ratio [OR] 1·139 per 1-μg/m<sup>3</sup> increase [95% CI 1·001–1·296]), exposure to smoke days with a wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> concentration of 5·0 μg/m<sup>3</sup> or greater (OR 1·018 per additional smoke day [1·003–1·032]) and 10·0 μg/m<sup>3</sup> or greater (OR 1·030 [1·006–1·054]), and exposure to ≥4-day smoke waves of 5·0 μg/m<sup>3</sup> or greater (OR 1·185 per additional smoke wave [1·044–1·347]) and 10·0 μg/m<sup>3</sup> or greater (OR 1·232 [1·029–1·475]). At the national level, by week of gestation, associations with preterm birth were observed in mid-pregnancy for smoke days with wildfire PM<sub>2·5</sub> concentrations above 0 μg/m<sup>3</sup>, of 2·5 μg/m<sup>3</sup> or greater, and of 5·0 μg/m<sup>3</sup> or greater, a","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 12","pages":"Article 101324"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145460480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101420
The Lancet Planetary Health
{"title":"In desperate need of systems change","authors":"The Lancet Planetary Health","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101420","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101420","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 12","pages":"Article 101420"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145852482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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