Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101338
Claudia Fernandez de Cordoba Farini , Francesco Branca , Ji-Hyun Yoon , Shenggen Fan , Jessica Fanzo , Susan P Mercado , Sandro Demaio
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Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101327
Marijke Kuiper PhD , Thijs de Lange MSc , Willem-Jan van Zeist PhD , Prof Hans van Meijl PhD
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>The EAT–<em>Lancet</em> (EL) report made a convincing case that a transformative diet shift could yield substantial health benefits while helping to respect key planetary boundaries. Shifting to a more plant-based EL diet requires an unprecedented break from historic trends of rising meat consumption. By exogenously shifting diets, existing studies do not provide guidance on how to shift diets. In this study, we model specific policies that might achieve such a dietary shift and their potential economic, environmental, and distributional impacts.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this economic modelling study, we used MAGNET, a global computable general equilibrium model, to explore how diets might be shifted from the business-as-usual trend of increased meat consumption between 2025 and 2050. We defined a policy bundle of three types of context-specific interventions: (1) nudging and information to shift consumer decisions, (2) adjusting fiscal policies by removing taxes on encouraged foods and subsidies on discouraged ones, and (3) introducing new price signals, such as taxes on high-emission foods and subsidies for encouraged foods. To evaluate how choice of interventions affects economic, environmental, and distributional outcomes, we analysed interactions of combined interventions and compared the policy bundle to an exogenous shift to the EL diet.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The EL diet recommendations cannot be reached by the policy bundle. While reducing overconsumption and underconsumption, the policy bundle left a big gap with EL diet recommendations (3 times the recommended intake for red meat, and only 80% of recommended fruit and vegetable intake, 50% for pulses and nuts). No single intervention from the policy bundle shifted all diet components in the desired direction. Decomposition of the policy bundle showed the importance of regional context. In low-income regions, taxes and subsidies accounted for the largest share in the diet shift. In other regions, nudging and information had a stronger effect than did subsidies. The exogenous EL diet scenario assumed a shift in diets beyond the range observed in empirical studies and produced a counterproductive feedback by reducing the affordability of the EL diet. GHG emissions from the primary sector (agriculture and fisheries) decreased more with the policy bundle (–4 GTon CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent), as GHG taxes provided incentives to reduce fossil-based inputs lacking in the consumer-focused exogenous EL diet scenario (–3 GTon CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent). The shift away from fossil-based inputs also led to an increase in agricultural land area (27 million ha) with the policy bundle, while the exogenous EL diet scenario resulted in a decrease in agricultural land (–35 million ha). Affordability for the average household decreased when exogenously shifting the EL diet (EL diet costs increased 26·1%, household income 0·2%), but it increased wit
{"title":"Exploring environmental and distributional impacts of different transition pathways for healthier and sustainable diets: an economic modelling study","authors":"Marijke Kuiper PhD , Thijs de Lange MSc , Willem-Jan van Zeist PhD , Prof Hans van Meijl PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101327","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101327","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>The EAT–<em>Lancet</em> (EL) report made a convincing case that a transformative diet shift could yield substantial health benefits while helping to respect key planetary boundaries. Shifting to a more plant-based EL diet requires an unprecedented break from historic trends of rising meat consumption. By exogenously shifting diets, existing studies do not provide guidance on how to shift diets. In this study, we model specific policies that might achieve such a dietary shift and their potential economic, environmental, and distributional impacts.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this economic modelling study, we used MAGNET, a global computable general equilibrium model, to explore how diets might be shifted from the business-as-usual trend of increased meat consumption between 2025 and 2050. We defined a policy bundle of three types of context-specific interventions: (1) nudging and information to shift consumer decisions, (2) adjusting fiscal policies by removing taxes on encouraged foods and subsidies on discouraged ones, and (3) introducing new price signals, such as taxes on high-emission foods and subsidies for encouraged foods. To evaluate how choice of interventions affects economic, environmental, and distributional outcomes, we analysed interactions of combined interventions and compared the policy bundle to an exogenous shift to the EL diet.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The EL diet recommendations cannot be reached by the policy bundle. While reducing overconsumption and underconsumption, the policy bundle left a big gap with EL diet recommendations (3 times the recommended intake for red meat, and only 80% of recommended fruit and vegetable intake, 50% for pulses and nuts). No single intervention from the policy bundle shifted all diet components in the desired direction. Decomposition of the policy bundle showed the importance of regional context. In low-income regions, taxes and subsidies accounted for the largest share in the diet shift. In other regions, nudging and information had a stronger effect than did subsidies. The exogenous EL diet scenario assumed a shift in diets beyond the range observed in empirical studies and produced a counterproductive feedback by reducing the affordability of the EL diet. GHG emissions from the primary sector (agriculture and fisheries) decreased more with the policy bundle (–4 GTon CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent), as GHG taxes provided incentives to reduce fossil-based inputs lacking in the consumer-focused exogenous EL diet scenario (–3 GTon CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent). The shift away from fossil-based inputs also led to an increase in agricultural land area (27 million ha) with the policy bundle, while the exogenous EL diet scenario resulted in a decrease in agricultural land (–35 million ha). Affordability for the average household decreased when exogenously shifting the EL diet (EL diet costs increased 26·1%, household income 0·2%), but it increased wit","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 10","pages":"Article 101327"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145428578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101325
Abhijeet Mishra PhD , Timothy B Sulser MSc , Sherwin Gabriel MCom , Nicola Cenacchi MSc , Shahnila Dunston MS , Derek Headey PhD , Prof Mario Herrero PhD , Daniel Mason-D’Croz MA , Keith Wiebe PhD
Background
Affordability limits healthy diet adoption, especially in low-income settings, yet dietary shifts are key for transition to sustainable food systems. This study models how a diet in line with the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission dietary transition might impact calorie availability, share of income spent on food, nutrition availability, and food prices.
Methods
We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to estimate food price changes under three alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and global adoption of a 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet by 2050. We analyse price shifts for the two cheapest commodities per food group, in each region, weighted on calorie availability per dollar. Additionally, we assess gaps between nutrient availability and reference nutrient intake and changes in the share of income spent on food for the whole diet.
Findings
Adoption of the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet leads to heterogeneous impacts on the share of income spent on food and nutrient availability, with gains in folate, iron, and zinc, but declines in vitamin A by 2050. The combined price index for the cheapest two commodities declines by 2050 compared with 2020 in both higher-income and lower-income countries.
Interpretation
Although dietary shifts towards the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet could offset some of the increases in prices seen in a business-as-usual world, we observed unintended effects on nutrient availability ratios, especially in lower-income countries. The decreasing price index for the cheapest two commodities reflects market adjustments to changes in demand and supply under scenario assumptions aligned with 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission goals for jointly improved human and environmental health. The observed nutrient deficiencies suggest the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission diet limits on animal-sourced foods might be too strict for lower-income countries, which could exacerbate nutrient deficiencies in contexts where access to animal sourced foods is already low (eg, vitamin A), especially if there is no access to supplementation for meeting these nutritional requirements or other sources of dietary nutrients.
Funding
CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations (Area of Work 1—Foresight and Prioritization).
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Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101339
Marina Sundiang PhD , Thais Diniz Oliveira PhD , Daniel Mason-D’Croz MA , Matthew Gibson PhD , Felicitas Beier MA , Lauren Benavidez MSc , Benjamin Leon Bodirsky PhD , Astrid Bos PhD , Maksym Chepeliev PhD , David Meng-Chuen Chen MA , Thijs de Lange MSc , Jonathan Doelman PhD , Shahnila Dunston MSc , Stefan Frank PhD , Prof Shinichiro Fujimori , Prof Tomoko Hasegawa , Petr Havlik PhD , Jordan Hristov PhD , Jonas Jägermeyr PhD , Marta Kozicka PhD , Mario Herrero PhD
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–<em>Lancet</em> healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices).</div></div><div><h3>Interpret
{"title":"Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment","authors":"Marina Sundiang PhD , Thais Diniz Oliveira PhD , Daniel Mason-D’Croz MA , Matthew Gibson PhD , Felicitas Beier MA , Lauren Benavidez MSc , Benjamin Leon Bodirsky PhD , Astrid Bos PhD , Maksym Chepeliev PhD , David Meng-Chuen Chen MA , Thijs de Lange MSc , Jonathan Doelman PhD , Shahnila Dunston MSc , Stefan Frank PhD , Prof Shinichiro Fujimori , Prof Tomoko Hasegawa , Petr Havlik PhD , Jordan Hristov PhD , Jonas Jägermeyr PhD , Marta Kozicka PhD , Mario Herrero PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101339","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101339","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–<em>Lancet</em> healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices).</div></div><div><h3>Interpret","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 10","pages":"Article 101339"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145428829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101343
Cahal McQuillan
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Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101308
Sumati Bajaj MA , Prof Marco Springmann PhD
Nutrient reference values (NRVs) serve as key benchmarks for assessing nutrient adequacy and informing dietary guidelines. However, their accuracy depends on the quality of the underlying evidence. In this Review, we evaluate the evidence base used by the US Institute of Medicine (IOM) and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) to establish NRVs for 21 micronutrients across all life stages. We assessed methodological approaches, sample sizes, publication timelines, and study durations and developed a classification of the quality of evidence based on these factors. Our findings highlight key limitations, including reliance on small and outdated studies, scarce experimental data, and the use of indirect methods such as balance studies and factorial modelling. Although EFSA incorporates more recent evidence than the IOM, gaps in the quality of evidence persist. Strengthening the evidence base through the use of direct, adequacy-related methods, large and long-term studies, and meta-analyses is essential for improving the accuracy of NRVs. Until more robust NRVs are established, our findings suggest that current NRVs are best used cautiously in nutritional assessments, that conclusions should be based on a subset of NRVs with at least a moderate quality of evidence, and that the existing uncertainties should be clearly communicated.
{"title":"A review of the quality of evidence of nutrient reference values","authors":"Sumati Bajaj MA , Prof Marco Springmann PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101308","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101308","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nutrient reference values (NRVs) serve as key benchmarks for assessing nutrient adequacy and informing dietary guidelines. However, their accuracy depends on the quality of the underlying evidence. In this Review, we evaluate the evidence base used by the US Institute of Medicine (IOM) and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) to establish NRVs for 21 micronutrients across all life stages. We assessed methodological approaches, sample sizes, publication timelines, and study durations and developed a classification of the quality of evidence based on these factors. Our findings highlight key limitations, including reliance on small and outdated studies, scarce experimental data, and the use of indirect methods such as balance studies and factorial modelling. Although EFSA incorporates more recent evidence than the IOM, gaps in the quality of evidence persist. Strengthening the evidence base through the use of direct, adequacy-related methods, large and long-term studies, and meta-analyses is essential for improving the accuracy of NRVs. Until more robust NRVs are established, our findings suggest that current NRVs are best used cautiously in nutritional assessments, that conclusions should be based on a subset of NRVs with at least a moderate quality of evidence, and that the existing uncertainties should be clearly communicated.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 10","pages":"Article 101308"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145428830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101337
Prof Hannah H E van Zanten PhD , Vera Bekkers MSc , Felicitas Beier MA , Benjamin L Bodirsky PhD , Thais Diniz Oliveira PhD , Laura Gerwien MSc , Matthew Gibson PhD , Prof Mario Herrero PhD , Renske Hijbeek PhD , Daniel Mason-D’Croz MSc , Prof Alexander Popp PhD , Susanne Rolinski PhD , Marina Sundiang PhD , Isabelle Weindl PhD , Wolfram J Simon PhD
Background
The 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission shows that a combination of dietary changes, productivity increases, and reduction of wasted biomass by 2050 can largely reduce agricultural land use and greenhouse gas emissions. However, questions remain about the ability to reduce pressures on planetary nitrogen and phosphorus boundaries, suggesting the need for additional action. We assessed how enhancing circularity and optimising the food system for environmental benefits could complement an EAT–Lancet-aligned food systems transformation.
Methods
We applied the global Circular Food Systems model—a biophysically based food systems model—that employs innovative measures such as circularity to optimise the food system for environmental benefits, ensuring that it operates within planetary boundaries. We used scenarios developed by the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission multi-model ensemble, comparing a business-as-usual scenario with scenarios that variously optimise food production, reduce wasted biomass, and shift towards a planetary health diet, as well as integrate circularity into the food system to estimate their potential dietary and environmental impacts by 2050.
Findings
Comparing 2020 with 2050, we show that on a global average, total nitrogen use to agricultural land could be reduced by 50%, total phosphorus use could be reduced by 73%, total land use for agriculture could be reduced by 76%; and greenhouse gas emissions from food production could be reduced by 75%, thereby creating a safe operating space for 2050. Most environmental gains are derived from dietary shift, food production optimisation, and reducing wasted biomass, but enhanced circularity is key to bringing both nitrogen and phosphorus use within safe planetary boundaries.
Interpretation
Circularity enhances and extends the benefits of an EAT–Lancet style food systems transformation via recycling waste for feed and fertiliser use, and complements but does not replace the need for dietary changes. An integration of solutions is needed to transition food systems to the safe operating space within planetary boundaries.
Funding
The AVINA Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability, and funding related to the 2025 EAT–Lancet Commission.
{"title":"Integrating circularity into the 2025 EAT–Lancet framework: a global modelling analysis","authors":"Prof Hannah H E van Zanten PhD , Vera Bekkers MSc , Felicitas Beier MA , Benjamin L Bodirsky PhD , Thais Diniz Oliveira PhD , Laura Gerwien MSc , Matthew Gibson PhD , Prof Mario Herrero PhD , Renske Hijbeek PhD , Daniel Mason-D’Croz MSc , Prof Alexander Popp PhD , Susanne Rolinski PhD , Marina Sundiang PhD , Isabelle Weindl PhD , Wolfram J Simon PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101337","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101337","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>The 2025 EAT–<em>Lancet</em> Commission shows that a combination of dietary changes, productivity increases, and reduction of wasted biomass by 2050 can largely reduce agricultural land use and greenhouse gas emissions. However, questions remain about the ability to reduce pressures on planetary nitrogen and phosphorus boundaries, suggesting the need for additional action. We assessed how enhancing circularity and optimising the food system for environmental benefits could complement an EAT–<em>Lancet</em>-aligned food systems transformation.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We applied the global Circular Food Systems model—a biophysically based food systems model—that employs innovative measures such as circularity to optimise the food system for environmental benefits, ensuring that it operates within planetary boundaries. We used scenarios developed by the 2025 EAT–<em>Lancet</em> Commission multi-model ensemble, comparing a business-as-usual scenario with scenarios that variously optimise food production, reduce wasted biomass, and shift towards a planetary health diet, as well as integrate circularity into the food system to estimate their potential dietary and environmental impacts by 2050.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Comparing 2020 with 2050, we show that on a global average, total nitrogen use to agricultural land could be reduced by 50%, total phosphorus use could be reduced by 73%, total land use for agriculture could be reduced by 76%; and greenhouse gas emissions from food production could be reduced by 75%, thereby creating a safe operating space for 2050. Most environmental gains are derived from dietary shift, food production optimisation, and reducing wasted biomass, but enhanced circularity is key to bringing both nitrogen and phosphorus use within safe planetary boundaries.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Circularity enhances and extends the benefits of an EAT–<em>Lancet</em> style food systems transformation via recycling waste for feed and fertiliser use, and complements but does not replace the need for dietary changes. An integration of solutions is needed to transition food systems to the safe operating space within planetary boundaries.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>The AVINA Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability, and funding related to the 2025 EAT–<em>Lancet</em> Commission.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 10","pages":"Article 101337"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145428828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101342
Yiorgos Vittis PhD , Prof Michael Obersteiner PhD , Prof H Charles J Godfray PhD , Prof Marco Springmann PhD
Background
Major changes in diets and food systems will be required to limit climate change and meet the Sustainable Development Goals, while providing healthy diets to a growing population. Among others, these changes include what foods are being produced and where, which has implications for the quarter of labourers currently employed in agriculture globally. We estimated the labour requirements for agricultural (primary) production associated with healthy and sustainable diets at global, regional, and national levels.
Methods
We constructed an inventory of agricultural labour requirements per food and region based on farm-level estimates and paired it with a set of diet and food-system scenarios. The scenarios included changes to a set of healthy and sustainable dietary patterns, including flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian, and vegan dietary patterns. We combined the inventory of labour requirements with a biophysical input–output model of the global food system to trace how changes in food consumption would affect changes in food production and the associated labour requirements for 20 food groups in 179 countries.
Findings
We found that transitions towards healthy and sustainable food systems could lead to substantial changes in the amount and distribution of agricultural labour. Compared with estimates of food demand in 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario, adopting more plant-based dietary patterns was associated with global reductions in labour requirements ranging from 5% for flexitarian and pescatarian diets to 22–28% for vegetarian and vegan diets. Reductions were strongest in countries currently dominated by livestock production, but a quarter to half of countries showed increased labour requirements to meet increased horticultural demand for fruits and vegetables. The changes in labour requirements were associated with global reductions in labour costs of 0·2–0·6% of gross domestic product annually.
Interpretation
Consistent strategies and political support will be needed to enable just transitions both into and out of agricultural labour.
{"title":"Labour requirements for healthy and sustainable diets at global, regional, and national levels: a modelling study","authors":"Yiorgos Vittis PhD , Prof Michael Obersteiner PhD , Prof H Charles J Godfray PhD , Prof Marco Springmann PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101342","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101342","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Major changes in diets and food systems will be required to limit climate change and meet the Sustainable Development Goals, while providing healthy diets to a growing population. Among others, these changes include what foods are being produced and where, which has implications for the quarter of labourers currently employed in agriculture globally. We estimated the labour requirements for agricultural (primary) production associated with healthy and sustainable diets at global, regional, and national levels.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We constructed an inventory of agricultural labour requirements per food and region based on farm-level estimates and paired it with a set of diet and food-system scenarios. The scenarios included changes to a set of healthy and sustainable dietary patterns, including flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian, and vegan dietary patterns. We combined the inventory of labour requirements with a biophysical input–output model of the global food system to trace how changes in food consumption would affect changes in food production and the associated labour requirements for 20 food groups in 179 countries.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>We found that transitions towards healthy and sustainable food systems could lead to substantial changes in the amount and distribution of agricultural labour. Compared with estimates of food demand in 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario, adopting more plant-based dietary patterns was associated with global reductions in labour requirements ranging from 5% for flexitarian and pescatarian diets to 22–28% for vegetarian and vegan diets. Reductions were strongest in countries currently dominated by livestock production, but a quarter to half of countries showed increased labour requirements to meet increased horticultural demand for fruits and vegetables. The changes in labour requirements were associated with global reductions in labour costs of 0·2–0·6% of gross domestic product annually.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Consistent strategies and political support will be needed to enable just transitions both into and out of agricultural labour.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>Wellcome Trust.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 10","pages":"Article 101342"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145428827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101303
Ferike Thom PhD , Felicitas Beier MA , Matthew Gibson PhD , Marina Sundiang PhD , David Chen MSc , Thijs de Lange MSc , Hermen Luchtenbelt MSc , Gianmaria Tassinari PhD , Abhijeet Mishra PhD , Thais Diniz Oliveira PhD
Work on the second EAT-Lancet Commission report on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems began in 2022 and is now nearing completion after 3 years and contributions from more than 100 researchers. The economic modelling undertaken for the Commission was led by the Global Economics Team of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)—a collaboration that brings together ten global economic models and modelling teams across different institutions. This Viewpoint, authored by ten early-career researchers (ECRs) from AgMIP who worked on the global economic modelling for the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission, offers the first direct perspectives of ECRs in a large, international collaboration focused on the future of food systems and global economic modelling. The Viewpoint offers a forward-looking perspective on global agroeconomic modelling based on experiences during the project, starting with actionable strategies to enhance the inclusivity and sustainability of international research collaborations. The Viewpoint then identifies key limitations of the models used in the project and offers suggestions for improvement through better integration of demand, policy interventions, biophysical processes, and spatial aspects to increase accuracy and relevance. We build on the reflections on modelling to explain the central role of AgMIP-style research collaboration in the personal and professional development of ECRs. The Viewpoint concludes by reflecting on the broader futures assumed in the models and the implications of a changing political landscape on research from the perspective of ECRs.
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Pub Date : 2025-10-01DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00087-7
Felicitas D Beier MA , Jan Philipp Dietrich PhD , Jens Heinke PhD , Gabriel Abrahao PhD , Patrick von Jeetze MA , Benjamin Leon Bodirsky PhD , Michael Crawford PhD , Florian Humpenöder PhD , Leon Merfort MA , Isabelle Weindl PhD , Prof Mario Herrero PhD , Daniel Mason-D’Croz MA , Prof Johan Rockström PhD , Marina Sundiang PhD , Sofie te Wierik PhD , Anna Norberg PhD , David Klein PhD , Christoph Müller PhD , Prof Hermann Lotze-Campen PhD , Prof Alexander Popp PhD
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Ambitious climate change mitigation in all economic sectors is crucial for limiting global warming. Cost-effective mitigation pathways to keep global average temperature increases below 1·5°C by the end of the 21st century often rely on land-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, increased land-based carbon uptake and biomass supply to other sectors (eg, energy and transport), and demand-side changes in the food system. To evaluate the broader sustainability of land-based climate change mitigation action, we evaluated synergies and trade-offs of individual and combined supply-side mitigation measures across five planetary boundaries. We also examined the role of a food demand transformation aligned with the dietary recommendations of the updated planetary health diet defined in the forthcoming EAT–<em>Lancet</em> Commission 2.0 report in shaping planetary boundary outcomes.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this modelling study, we used the dynamic land-system modelling framework MAgPIE to assess the consequences of land-based GHG reductions, increased land-based carbon uptake, increased biomass supply to other sectors, and a food-system transformation towards the planetary health diet including food waste reductions on five planetary boundary domains (climate change, nitrogen, land-system change, freshwater use, and biosphere integrity) relative to a reference scenario without land-system mitigation throughout the century. For each planetary boundary control variable, we calculated the level of planetary boundary transgression (ie, the extent to which scenario outcomes exceeded the defined safe operating space) and assessed the contributions of land-based mitigation strategies to reducing planetary boundary transgressions projected for the reference scenario.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Our projections show that a food-system transformation together with ambitious land-system and energy-system climate change mitigation can limit global warming to below 1·5°C by 2100, while also reducing planetary boundary transgression (particularly for the climate change, land-system change, biosphere integrity, and nitrogen planetary boundaries). However, a safe operating space was not achieved through these mitigation measures, as most planetary boundaries were still projected to remain transgressed by the end of the 21st century. Increased bioenergy supply alone worsened planetary boundary transgression when only looking at land-system impacts, but combining increased bioenergy supply with GHG pricing in the land system alleviated these trade-offs. Food waste reductions and dietary shifts towards the planetary health diet were projected to ease pressures on the land system and reduce planetary boundary transgression of all assessed planetary boundaries.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>This research highlights the importance of considering multiple planetary boundaries and the interactions betw
{"title":"Planetary boundaries under a land-based climate change mitigation scenario with a food demand transformation: a modelling study","authors":"Felicitas D Beier MA , Jan Philipp Dietrich PhD , Jens Heinke PhD , Gabriel Abrahao PhD , Patrick von Jeetze MA , Benjamin Leon Bodirsky PhD , Michael Crawford PhD , Florian Humpenöder PhD , Leon Merfort MA , Isabelle Weindl PhD , Prof Mario Herrero PhD , Daniel Mason-D’Croz MA , Prof Johan Rockström PhD , Marina Sundiang PhD , Sofie te Wierik PhD , Anna Norberg PhD , David Klein PhD , Christoph Müller PhD , Prof Hermann Lotze-Campen PhD , Prof Alexander Popp PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00087-7","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00087-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Ambitious climate change mitigation in all economic sectors is crucial for limiting global warming. Cost-effective mitigation pathways to keep global average temperature increases below 1·5°C by the end of the 21st century often rely on land-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, increased land-based carbon uptake and biomass supply to other sectors (eg, energy and transport), and demand-side changes in the food system. To evaluate the broader sustainability of land-based climate change mitigation action, we evaluated synergies and trade-offs of individual and combined supply-side mitigation measures across five planetary boundaries. We also examined the role of a food demand transformation aligned with the dietary recommendations of the updated planetary health diet defined in the forthcoming EAT–<em>Lancet</em> Commission 2.0 report in shaping planetary boundary outcomes.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this modelling study, we used the dynamic land-system modelling framework MAgPIE to assess the consequences of land-based GHG reductions, increased land-based carbon uptake, increased biomass supply to other sectors, and a food-system transformation towards the planetary health diet including food waste reductions on five planetary boundary domains (climate change, nitrogen, land-system change, freshwater use, and biosphere integrity) relative to a reference scenario without land-system mitigation throughout the century. For each planetary boundary control variable, we calculated the level of planetary boundary transgression (ie, the extent to which scenario outcomes exceeded the defined safe operating space) and assessed the contributions of land-based mitigation strategies to reducing planetary boundary transgressions projected for the reference scenario.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Our projections show that a food-system transformation together with ambitious land-system and energy-system climate change mitigation can limit global warming to below 1·5°C by 2100, while also reducing planetary boundary transgression (particularly for the climate change, land-system change, biosphere integrity, and nitrogen planetary boundaries). However, a safe operating space was not achieved through these mitigation measures, as most planetary boundaries were still projected to remain transgressed by the end of the 21st century. Increased bioenergy supply alone worsened planetary boundary transgression when only looking at land-system impacts, but combining increased bioenergy supply with GHG pricing in the land system alleviated these trade-offs. Food waste reductions and dietary shifts towards the planetary health diet were projected to ease pressures on the land system and reduce planetary boundary transgression of all assessed planetary boundaries.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>This research highlights the importance of considering multiple planetary boundaries and the interactions betw","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 10","pages":"Article 101249"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144620923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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