Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-08DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101402
Cahal McQuillan
{"title":"Planetary Health Research Digest","authors":"Cahal McQuillan","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101402","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101402","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 1","pages":"Article 101402"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145745238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-17DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101403
Latiffah Hassan , Robyn Alders , Sarah Cleveland , Dirk Pfeiffer , Chris Walzer , Neil M Vora , Raina K Plowright
{"title":"Equitable investment in the veterinary workforce is foundational to One Health and planetary wellbeing","authors":"Latiffah Hassan , Robyn Alders , Sarah Cleveland , Dirk Pfeiffer , Chris Walzer , Neil M Vora , Raina K Plowright","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101403","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101403","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 1","pages":"Article 101403"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145800766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-30DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101419
Arthur Wyns
{"title":"COP30 agrees on framework to track global climate resilience","authors":"Arthur Wyns","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101419","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101419","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 1","pages":"Article 101419"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145893078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2026-01-09DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101411
Zhengyu Yang PhD , Wenzhong Huang PhD , Prof Joanne E McKenzie PhD , Prof Rongbin Xu PhD , Pei Yu PhD , Gongbo Chen PhD , Wenhua Yu PhD , Yao Wu PhD , Yanming Liu PhD , Bo Wen PhD , Prof Simon Hales PhD , Eric Lavigne PhD , Tingting Ye PhD , Yiwen Zhang MSc , Prof Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho PhD , Patricia Matus PhD , Kraichat Tantrakarnapa PhD , Wissanupong Kliengchuay PhD , Prof Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva PhD , Shuang Zhou PhD , Prof Shanshan Li PhD
<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Infectious disease outbreak is one of the most concerning issues in the aftermath of floods. However, knowledge gaps exist in the risk, burden, and trend of infectious disease hospitalisation associated with floods. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the risks, burden, and temporal changes of infectious disease hospitalisations associated with flood exposure during 2000–19.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this multicountry, time-series study, hospitalisation data for all communities in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, New Zealand, and Thailand from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2019, were collected from local authorities of each country. We retrieved flood events data from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory. Meteorological, population, and gross domestic product data were collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5, Landscan, and a previous study. Associations between flood exposure and weekly hospitalisation risks were estimated using a two-stage analytical approach. To examine temporal changes in the associations and the corresponding burden, we estimated relative risks (RRs) and excess rates of hospitalisations from infectious diseases that were attributable to floods for the communities in each country in two periods (2000–09 and 2010–19) using the two-stage analytical approach.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>27 million infectious disease hospitalisation records from 709 communities were included in the analysis. Hospitalisation risks of all-cause infectious, foodborne and waterborne diseases, airborne diseases, skin and mucous-membrane infections, and sexually transmitted infections increased for up to 26 weeks following flood exposure. For each 1-week flood exposure, the associated RR (mean across 26 weeks) after flood exposure was 1·006 (95% CI 1·002–1·009) for all-cause infectious diseases, 1·008 (1·003–1·012) for foodborne and waterborne diseases, 1·004 (1·001–1·008) for airborne diseases, 1·010 (1·005–1·015) for skin and mucous-membrane infections, and 1·032 (1·025–1·039) for sexually transmitted infections. Changes in RRs were observed between 2000–09 and 2010–19 across countries. In 2010–19, the excess rate of all-cause infectious disease hospitalisations was the highest in Australia, which was 150·0 (95% empirical CI 115·8–183·2) admissions per million person-years.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Flood exposure was associated with increased hospitalisation risks for foodborne and waterborne diseases, airborne diseases, skin and mucous-membrane infections, and sexually transmitted infections, lasting for up to 26 weeks after flooding. With the projected increases in severity, duration, and frequency of floods under climate change, greater efforts are warranted to review and improve the current adaptation strategies, disaster response protocols, health system resilience, and disease surveillance systems.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>Aus
{"title":"Risk, burden, and trend of infectious disease hospitalisations associated with floods: a multicountry, time-series study","authors":"Zhengyu Yang PhD , Wenzhong Huang PhD , Prof Joanne E McKenzie PhD , Prof Rongbin Xu PhD , Pei Yu PhD , Gongbo Chen PhD , Wenhua Yu PhD , Yao Wu PhD , Yanming Liu PhD , Bo Wen PhD , Prof Simon Hales PhD , Eric Lavigne PhD , Tingting Ye PhD , Yiwen Zhang MSc , Prof Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho PhD , Patricia Matus PhD , Kraichat Tantrakarnapa PhD , Wissanupong Kliengchuay PhD , Prof Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva PhD , Shuang Zhou PhD , Prof Shanshan Li PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101411","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101411","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Infectious disease outbreak is one of the most concerning issues in the aftermath of floods. However, knowledge gaps exist in the risk, burden, and trend of infectious disease hospitalisation associated with floods. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the risks, burden, and temporal changes of infectious disease hospitalisations associated with flood exposure during 2000–19.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this multicountry, time-series study, hospitalisation data for all communities in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, New Zealand, and Thailand from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2019, were collected from local authorities of each country. We retrieved flood events data from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory. Meteorological, population, and gross domestic product data were collected from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5, Landscan, and a previous study. Associations between flood exposure and weekly hospitalisation risks were estimated using a two-stage analytical approach. To examine temporal changes in the associations and the corresponding burden, we estimated relative risks (RRs) and excess rates of hospitalisations from infectious diseases that were attributable to floods for the communities in each country in two periods (2000–09 and 2010–19) using the two-stage analytical approach.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>27 million infectious disease hospitalisation records from 709 communities were included in the analysis. Hospitalisation risks of all-cause infectious, foodborne and waterborne diseases, airborne diseases, skin and mucous-membrane infections, and sexually transmitted infections increased for up to 26 weeks following flood exposure. For each 1-week flood exposure, the associated RR (mean across 26 weeks) after flood exposure was 1·006 (95% CI 1·002–1·009) for all-cause infectious diseases, 1·008 (1·003–1·012) for foodborne and waterborne diseases, 1·004 (1·001–1·008) for airborne diseases, 1·010 (1·005–1·015) for skin and mucous-membrane infections, and 1·032 (1·025–1·039) for sexually transmitted infections. Changes in RRs were observed between 2000–09 and 2010–19 across countries. In 2010–19, the excess rate of all-cause infectious disease hospitalisations was the highest in Australia, which was 150·0 (95% empirical CI 115·8–183·2) admissions per million person-years.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Flood exposure was associated with increased hospitalisation risks for foodborne and waterborne diseases, airborne diseases, skin and mucous-membrane infections, and sexually transmitted infections, lasting for up to 26 weeks after flooding. With the projected increases in severity, duration, and frequency of floods under climate change, greater efforts are warranted to review and improve the current adaptation strategies, disaster response protocols, health system resilience, and disease surveillance systems.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>Aus","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 1","pages":"Article 101411"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145960164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-26DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101409
Annemieke van den Dool , S L P Evin , Jaemin Kim , Xiaohang Lyu , Lana Abusalem , Yijin Niu , Khanh Tuong Tran , L Gayani Tillekeratne
{"title":"Bridging the policy gap between climate change and antimicrobial resistance","authors":"Annemieke van den Dool , S L P Evin , Jaemin Kim , Xiaohang Lyu , Lana Abusalem , Yijin Niu , Khanh Tuong Tran , L Gayani Tillekeratne","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101409","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101409","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 1","pages":"Article 101409"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145858399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101379
Sandrah P Eckel PhD , Futu Chen PhD , Sam J Silva PhD , Daniel L Goldberg PhD , Jill Johnston PhD , Lawrence A Palinkas PhD , Alberto Campos MSW , Wilma Franco EdD , Erika Garcia PhD
Background
Electrifying the transportation sector is a key climate-change mitigation strategy. Reductions in exhaust emissions have anticipated air quality co-benefits; yet, evidence is primarily based on projections. Using observed data in California, USA, we aimed to investigate whether reductions in exhaust emissions from the transition to zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs: battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell) were detectable using Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) air pollution.
Methods
In this longitudinal observational study, we combined data from 2019 to 2023 on annual light-duty ZEV registrations in 1692 California ZIP code tabulation areas (ZCTAs; cross-walked from ZIP codes) with annual mean TROPOMI-measured NO2. We used longitudinal linear mixed-effects models to assess the association between within-ZCTA ZEV changes and within-ZCTA NO2 changes, adjusting for temporal trends and time-varying potential confounding, or excluding 2020. In positive control analyses, we related internal combustion engine vehicle registrations to NO2. In ground-truth analyses, we related ZEVs to NO2 concentrations using 123 Environmental Protection Agency monitors from 2012 to 2023.
Findings
The median within-ZCTA increase in ZEVs from 2019 to 2023 was 272 (IQR 18 to 839). A within-ZCTA increase of 200 ZEVs was associated with a 1·10% (95% CI −1·19 to −1·00) decrease in annual average NO2. The main findings were supported by sensitivity analyses (–1·32% [–1·43 to –1·21] when excluding the year 2020), ground-truth analysis (–0·87% [–1·76 to 0·03] using NO2 from ground-level monitors), and positive control analysis (0·80% [0·63 to 0·97] increase in annual average NO2 per 800 increase in number of internal combustion engine vehicles).
Interpretation
Using a natural experiment, we found that within-ZCTA increases in ZEV registrations were associated with reductions in NO2 air pollution measured by satellite and replicated with ground-level monitors. This work in California serves as a proof-of-principle for future work using satellite-measured NO2 to quantify effects of climate-change mitigation efforts on combustion-related air pollution within the USA and internationally.
Funding
National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program.
{"title":"Zero-emissions vehicle adoption and satellite-measured NO2 air pollution in California, USA, from 2019 to 2023: a longitudinal observational study","authors":"Sandrah P Eckel PhD , Futu Chen PhD , Sam J Silva PhD , Daniel L Goldberg PhD , Jill Johnston PhD , Lawrence A Palinkas PhD , Alberto Campos MSW , Wilma Franco EdD , Erika Garcia PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101379","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101379","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Electrifying the transportation sector is a key climate-change mitigation strategy. Reductions in exhaust emissions have anticipated air quality co-benefits; yet, evidence is primarily based on projections. Using observed data in California, USA, we aimed to investigate whether reductions in exhaust emissions from the transition to zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs: battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell) were detectable using Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide (NO<sub>2</sub>) air pollution.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this longitudinal observational study, we combined data from 2019 to 2023 on annual light-duty ZEV registrations in 1692 California ZIP code tabulation areas (ZCTAs; cross-walked from ZIP codes) with annual mean TROPOMI-measured NO<sub>2</sub>. We used longitudinal linear mixed-effects models to assess the association between within-ZCTA ZEV changes and within-ZCTA NO<sub>2</sub> changes, adjusting for temporal trends and time-varying potential confounding, or excluding 2020. In positive control analyses, we related internal combustion engine vehicle registrations to NO<sub>2</sub>. In ground-truth analyses, we related ZEVs to NO<sub>2</sub> concentrations using 123 Environmental Protection Agency monitors from 2012 to 2023.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>The median within-ZCTA increase in ZEVs from 2019 to 2023 was 272 (IQR 18 to 839). A within-ZCTA increase of 200 ZEVs was associated with a 1·10% (95% CI −1·19 to −1·00) decrease in annual average NO<sub>2</sub>. The main findings were supported by sensitivity analyses (–1·32% [–1·43 to –1·21] when excluding the year 2020), ground-truth analysis (–0·87% [–1·76 to 0·03] using NO<sub>2</sub> from ground-level monitors), and positive control analysis (0·80% [0·63 to 0·97] increase in annual average NO<sub>2</sub> per 800 increase in number of internal combustion engine vehicles).</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>Using a natural experiment, we found that within-ZCTA increases in ZEV registrations were associated with reductions in NO<sub>2</sub> air pollution measured by satellite and replicated with ground-level monitors. This work in California serves as a proof-of-principle for future work using satellite-measured NO<sub>2</sub> to quantify effects of climate-change mitigation efforts on combustion-related air pollution within the USA and internationally.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"10 1","pages":"Article 101379"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146047284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-23DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101421
Cahal McQuillan
{"title":"Planetary Health Research Digest.","authors":"Cahal McQuillan","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101421","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101421","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":" ","pages":"101421"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145844405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-12-23DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101382
Megan B Sheahan MS , Mathew Hauer PhD , Valerie Mueller PhD , Glenn Sheriff PhD , Charles Fant PhD , Isabel Holland MS , Marcus C Sarofim PhD , Corinne Hartin PhD , James E Neumann MPA
Background
Studies have documented the effect of increased nuisance high-tide flooding on traffic disruption and delays as well as infrastructure maintenance and repair costs. Recent research suggests that high-tide flooding is also associated with more extreme outcomes, including increased mortality risk among adults aged 65 years and older. The aim of this study was to leverage these new findings to project future premature deaths and associated economic costs among older adults in coastal areas of the USA throughout the 21st century under various climate change scenarios.
Methods
We estimated the relationship between global sea level rise and high-tide flooding. We then employed five projections of relative mean sea level from the Fifth National Climate Assessment to develop a probabilistic distribution of high-tide flooding scenarios. Combining population and baseline mortality projections with published estimates of the association between high-tide flooding and premature mortality among adults aged 65 years and older in Florida, USA, we generated a distribution of predicted high-tide flooding mortality impacts across coastal areas of the USA. Because this analysis assumes no change in adaptation strategies, we also presented a stylised scenario that assumes additional action is taken to limit mortality risk.
Findings
Our main specification (without additional adaptation) anticipates approximately 230 additional deaths of older adults per year in 2020 relative to 2005, corresponding to monetised damages of US$3·1 billion. By 2100, the model projects nearly 10 000 additional deaths in this age group per year under the same scenario, a 43-fold increase relative to modelled 2005 levels. With some protective measures, the model predicts 5700 additional premature deaths, representing a 57% reduction relative to the main results.
Interpretation
The cost of premature mortality in older adults is greater in magnitude than other modelled effects of climate-induced high-tide flooding (eg, value of lost time due to traffic delays). Results suggest further action is needed to (1) identify and protect components of road networks critical for emergency access, (2) build additional, more accessible critical care delivery facilities, and (3) manage the retreat of vulnerable populations to areas with better access to critical care facilities.
{"title":"Projections of future mortality risk in older adults from high-tide flooding in coastal areas of the USA: an economic modelling study","authors":"Megan B Sheahan MS , Mathew Hauer PhD , Valerie Mueller PhD , Glenn Sheriff PhD , Charles Fant PhD , Isabel Holland MS , Marcus C Sarofim PhD , Corinne Hartin PhD , James E Neumann MPA","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101382","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101382","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Studies have documented the effect of increased nuisance high-tide flooding on traffic disruption and delays as well as infrastructure maintenance and repair costs. Recent research suggests that high-tide flooding is also associated with more extreme outcomes, including increased mortality risk among adults aged 65 years and older. The aim of this study was to leverage these new findings to project future premature deaths and associated economic costs among older adults in coastal areas of the USA throughout the 21st century under various climate change scenarios.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We estimated the relationship between global sea level rise and high-tide flooding. We then employed five projections of relative mean sea level from the Fifth National Climate Assessment to develop a probabilistic distribution of high-tide flooding scenarios. Combining population and baseline mortality projections with published estimates of the association between high-tide flooding and premature mortality among adults aged 65 years and older in Florida, USA, we generated a distribution of predicted high-tide flooding mortality impacts across coastal areas of the USA. Because this analysis assumes no change in adaptation strategies, we also presented a stylised scenario that assumes additional action is taken to limit mortality risk.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Our main specification (without additional adaptation) anticipates approximately 230 additional deaths of older adults per year in 2020 relative to 2005, corresponding to monetised damages of US$3·1 billion. By 2100, the model projects nearly 10 000 additional deaths in this age group per year under the same scenario, a 43-fold increase relative to modelled 2005 levels. With some protective measures, the model predicts 5700 additional premature deaths, representing a 57% reduction relative to the main results.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>The cost of premature mortality in older adults is greater in magnitude than other modelled effects of climate-induced high-tide flooding (eg, value of lost time due to traffic delays). Results suggest further action is needed to (1) identify and protect components of road networks critical for emergency access, (2) build additional, more accessible critical care delivery facilities, and (3) manage the retreat of vulnerable populations to areas with better access to critical care facilities.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>US Environmental Protection Agency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 12","pages":"Article 101382"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145844459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-12-23DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101383
Yohannes Tefera Damtew PhD , Blesson Mathew Varghese PhD , Olga Anikeeva PhD , Michael Tong PhD , Alana Hansen PhD , Prof Keith Dear PhD , Ying Zhang PhD , Prof Tim Driscoll PhD , Prof Tony Capon PhD , Michelle Gourley BS , Vanessa Prescott PhD , Prof Peng Bi PhD
Background
Salmonella and Campylobacter infections are leading causes of bacterial gastrointestinal infections, with rising global incidence. Rising temperatures are expected to further drive the transmission and prevalence of enteric infections. Quantifying the current and future burden of Salmonella and Campylobacter infections is crucial for guiding prevention strategies. This study aimed to assess the present and projected burden of Salmonella and Campylobacter infections attributable to rising temperatures in Australia.
Methods
In this comparative risk assessment modelling study, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with Salmonella and Campylobacter infections from 2003 to 2018 were acquired from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and analysed. A meta-regression model was employed to estimate the increase in infection risk per 1°C rise in temperature. Exposure distributions for each Köppen–Geiger climate zone were calculated and compared with the theoretical minimum risk exposure to establish the burden attributable to rising temperatures. Projected burdens for the 2030s and 2050s were assessed under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), considering population growth and adaptation scenarios.
Findings
Between 2003 and 2018, rising temperatures attributed to 11% (41·8 [SD 2·8] DALYs) of Salmonella and 8% (28·1 [1·8] DALYs) of Campylobacter burden. The highest burden was in the tropical rainforest climate zone. By the 2050s, under RCP8.5 and medium population growth without adaptation, Salmonella and Campylobacter burdens could reach 100·6 (10·9) and 67·9 (7·4) DALYs, respectively. A 10% adaptation measure could reduce these to 89·5 (8·3) and 61·8 (6·7) DALYs.
Interpretation
This study presents the first national assessment of the temperature-attributable burden of Salmonella and Campylobacter infections in Australia. It addresses a substantial knowledge gap by providing data-driven projections and underscores the necessity for targeted public health interventions and region-specific climate adaptation strategies to mitigate enteric infection risks.
{"title":"Estimating non-optimal temperature-attributable burden of Salmonella and Campylobacter infections under various climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Australia: a comparative risk assessment modelling study","authors":"Yohannes Tefera Damtew PhD , Blesson Mathew Varghese PhD , Olga Anikeeva PhD , Michael Tong PhD , Alana Hansen PhD , Prof Keith Dear PhD , Ying Zhang PhD , Prof Tim Driscoll PhD , Prof Tony Capon PhD , Michelle Gourley BS , Vanessa Prescott PhD , Prof Peng Bi PhD","doi":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101383","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101383","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div><em>Salmonella</em> and <em>Campylobacter</em> infections are leading causes of bacterial gastrointestinal infections, with rising global incidence. Rising temperatures are expected to further drive the transmission and prevalence of enteric infections. Quantifying the current and future burden of <em>Salmonella</em> and <em>Campylobacter</em> infections is crucial for guiding prevention strategies. This study aimed to assess the present and projected burden of <em>Salmonella</em> and <em>Campylobacter</em> infections attributable to rising temperatures in Australia.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>In this comparative risk assessment modelling study, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with <em>Salmonella</em> and <em>Campylobacter</em> infections from 2003 to 2018 were acquired from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and analysed. A meta-regression model was employed to estimate the increase in infection risk per 1°C rise in temperature. Exposure distributions for each Köppen–Geiger climate zone were calculated and compared with the theoretical minimum risk exposure to establish the burden attributable to rising temperatures. Projected burdens for the 2030s and 2050s were assessed under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), considering population growth and adaptation scenarios.</div></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><div>Between 2003 and 2018, rising temperatures attributed to 11% (41·8 [SD 2·8] DALYs) of <em>Salmonella</em> and 8% (28·1 [1·8] DALYs) of <em>Campylobacter</em> burden. The highest burden was in the tropical rainforest climate zone. By the 2050s, under RCP8.5 and medium population growth without adaptation, <em>Salmonella</em> and <em>Campylobacter</em> burdens could reach 100·6 (10·9) and 67·9 (7·4) DALYs, respectively. A 10% adaptation measure could reduce these to 89·5 (8·3) and 61·8 (6·7) DALYs.</div></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><div>This study presents the first national assessment of the temperature-attributable burden of <em>Salmonella</em> and <em>Campylobacter</em> infections in Australia. It addresses a substantial knowledge gap by providing data-driven projections and underscores the necessity for targeted public health interventions and region-specific climate adaptation strategies to mitigate enteric infection risks.</div></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><div>Australian Research Council Discovery Program.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"9 12","pages":"Article 101383"},"PeriodicalIF":21.6,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145844439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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