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Public Health Benefits From Improved Identification of Severe Air Pollution Events With Geostationary Satellite Data 利用地球静止卫星数据更好地识别严重空气污染事件对公众健康的益处
IF 4.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1029/2023GH000890
Katelyn O'Dell, Shobha Kondragunta, Hai Zhang, Daniel L. Goldberg, Gaige Hunter Kerr, Zigang Wei, Barron H. Henderson, Susan C. Anenberg

Despite improvements in ambient air quality in the US in recent decades, many people still experience unhealthy levels of pollution. At present, national-level alert-day identification relies predominately on surface monitor networks and forecasters. Satellite-based estimates of surface air quality have rapidly advanced and have the capability to inform exposure-reducing actions to protect public health. At present, we lack a robust framework to quantify public health benefits of these advances in applications of satellite-based atmospheric composition data. Here, we assess possible health benefits of using geostationary satellite data, over polar orbiting satellite data, for identifying particulate air quality alert days (24hr PM2.5 > 35 μg m−3) in 2020. We find the more extensive spatiotemporal coverage of geostationary satellite data leads to a 60% increase in identification of person-alerts (alert days × population) in 2020 over polar-orbiting satellite data. We apply pre-existing estimates of PM2.5 exposure reduction by individual behavior modification and find these additional person-alerts may lead to 1,200 (800–1,500) or 54% more averted PM2.5-attributable premature deaths per year, if geostationary, instead of polar orbiting, satellite data alone are used to identify alert days. These health benefits have an associated economic value of 13 (8.8–17) billion dollars ($2019) per year. Our results highlight one of many potential applications of atmospheric composition data from geostationary satellites for improving public health. Identifying these applications has important implications for guiding use of current satellite data and planning future geostationary satellite missions.

尽管近几十年来美国的环境空气质量有所改善,但许多人仍然会受到不健康的污染。目前,国家一级的预警日识别主要依靠地面监测网络和预报员。基于卫星的地表空气质量估计已经取得了飞速发展,并有能力为减少暴露的行动提供信息,以保护公众健康。目前,我们缺乏一个强大的框架来量化这些基于卫星的大气成分数据应用进展所带来的公共健康益处。在此,我们评估了使用地球静止卫星数据而非极地轨道卫星数据识别 2020 年颗粒物空气质量警报日(24 小时 PM2.5 > 35 μg m-3)可能带来的健康益处。我们发现,地球静止卫星数据的时空覆盖范围更广,与极轨卫星数据相比,2020 年人员警报(警报日×人口)的识别率提高了 60%。我们应用了之前对通过个人行为改变减少 PM2.5 暴露的估算,发现如果仅使用地球静止卫星数据而非极地轨道卫星数据来识别警报日,这些额外的个人警报可能导致每年避免的 PM2.5 导致的过早死亡人数增加 1200(800-1500)人或 54%。这些健康效益的相关经济价值为每年 130 亿美元(88-170 亿美元)。我们的研究结果凸显了地球静止卫星大气成分数据在改善公众健康方面的众多潜在应用之一。确定这些应用对于指导当前卫星数据的使用和规划未来的地球静止卫星任务具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Association Between Air Pollution and Cardiovascular Disease Hospitalizations in Lanzhou City, 2013–2020: A Time Series Analysis 2013-2020年兰州市空气污染与心血管疾病住院人数的关系:时间序列分析
IF 4.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1029/2022GH000780
Jingze Yu, Anning Zhu, Miaoxin Liu, Jiyuan Dong, Rentong Chen, Tian Tian, Tong Liu, Li Ma, Ye Ruan

Extensive evidence has shown that air pollution increases the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) admissions. We aimed to explore the short-term effect of air pollution on CVD admissions in Lanzhou residents and their lag effects. Meteorological data, air pollution data, and a total of 309,561 daily hospitalizations for CVD among urban residents in Lanzhou were collected from 2013 to 2020. Distributed lag non-linear model was used to analyze the relationship between air pollutants and CVD admissions, stratified by gender, age, and season. PM2.5, NO2, and CO have the strongest harmful effects at lag03, while SO2 at lag3. The relative risks of CVD admissions were 1.0013(95% CI: 1.0003, 1.0023), 1.0032(95% CI: 1.0008, 1.0056), and 1.0040(95% CI: 1.0024, 1.0057) when PM2.5, SO2, and NO2 concentrations were increased by 10 μg/m³, respectively. Each 1 mg/m3 increase in CO concentration was associated with a relative risk of cardiovascular hospitalization of risk was 1.0909(95% CI: 1.0367, 1.1479). We observed a relative risk of 0.9981(95% CI: 0.9972, 0.9991) for each 10 μg/m³ increase in O3 for CVD admissions at lag06. We found a significant lag effects of air pollutants on CVD admissions. NO2 and CO pose a greater risk of hospitalization for women, while PM2.5 and SO2 have a greater impact on men. PM2.5, NO2, and CO have a greater impact on CVD admissions in individuals aged <65 years, whereas SO2 affects those aged ≥65 years. Our research indicates a possible short-term impact of air pollution on CVD. Local public health and environmental policies should take these preliminary findings into account.

大量证据表明,空气污染会增加心血管疾病(CVD)的发病风险。我们旨在探讨空气污染对兰州居民心血管疾病入院的短期影响及其滞后效应。我们收集了兰州市 2013 年至 2020 年的气象数据、空气污染数据以及每日因心血管疾病住院的城市居民总人数 309,561 人。采用分布式滞后非线性模型分析了空气污染物与心血管病住院人数之间的关系,并按性别、年龄和季节进行了分层。PM2.5、二氧化氮和一氧化碳在滞后期03时的有害效应最强,而二氧化硫在滞后期3时的有害效应最强。当 PM2.5、二氧化硫和二氧化氮浓度增加 10 μg/m³ 时,心血管疾病入院的相对风险分别为 1.0013(95% CI:1.0003,1.0023)、1.0032(95% CI:1.0008,1.0056)和 1.0040(95% CI:1.0024,1.0057)。一氧化碳浓度每增加 1 毫克/立方米,心血管疾病住院的相对风险为 1.0909(95% CI:1.0367,1.1479)。我们观察到,在滞后 06 期,O3 浓度每增加 10 μg/m³ ,心血管疾病住院的相对风险为 0.9981(95% CI:0.9972,0.9991)。我们发现空气污染物对心血管疾病入院率有明显的滞后效应。二氧化氮和一氧化碳对女性的住院风险更大,而 PM2.5 和二氧化硫对男性的影响更大。PM2.5、二氧化氮和一氧化碳对 2 岁以下人群的心血管疾病入院率影响更大,而对年龄≥65 岁的人群影响更大。我们的研究表明,空气污染可能会对心血管疾病产生短期影响。地方公共卫生和环境政策应考虑到这些初步研究结果。
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引用次数: 0
Premature Deaths Due To Heat Exposure: The Potential Effects of Neighborhood-Level Versus City-Level Acclimatization Within US Cities 热暴露导致的过早死亡:美国城市中邻里层面与城市层面适应性的潜在影响
IF 4.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-01-02 DOI: 10.1029/2023GH000970
D. Shindell, R. Hunter, G. Faluvegi, L. Parsons

For the population of a given US city, the risk of premature death associated with heat exposure increases as temperatures rise, but risks in hotter cities are generally lower than in cooler cities at equivalent temperatures due to factors such as acclimatization. Those living in especially hot neighborhoods within cities might therefore suffer much more than average if such adaptation is only at the city-wide level, whereas they might not experience greatly increased risk if adjustment is at the neighborhood level. To compare these possibilities, we use high spatial resolution temperature data to evaluated heat-related deaths assuming either adjustment at the city-wide or at the neighborhood scale in 10 large US cities. On average, we find that if inhabitants are adjusted to their local conditions, a neighborhood that was 10°C hotter than a cooler one would experience only about 1.0–1.5 excess heat deaths per year per 100,000 persons. By contrast, if inhabitants are acclimatized to city-wide temperatures, the hotter neighborhood would experience about 15 excess deaths per year per 100,000 persons. Using idealized analyses, we demonstrate that current city-wide epidemiological data do not differentiate between these differing adjustments. Given the very large effects of assumptions about neighborhood-level acclimatization found here, as well as the fact that current literature is conflicting on the spatial scale of acclimatization, more neighborhood-level epidemiological data are urgently needed to determine the health impacts of variations in heat exposure within urban areas, better constrain projected changes, and inform mitigation efforts.

对于特定美国城市的人口而言,与高温暴露相关的过早死亡风险会随着气温升高而增加,但由于适应等因素,在同等温度下,较热城市的风险通常低于较冷城市。因此,如果仅在全市范围内进行适应性调整,生活在城市中特别炎热街区的居民可能会遭受比平均水平高得多的风险,而如果在街区范围内进行调整,他们可能不会经历大幅增加的风险。为了比较这些可能性,我们使用高空间分辨率气温数据评估了美国 10 个大城市中与高温相关的死亡人数,并假设在全市范围内或在社区范围内进行调整。我们发现,平均而言,如果居民根据当地条件进行调整,一个比凉爽地区高 10°C 的社区每年每 10 万人中只有 1.0-1.5 人死于高温。相比之下,如果居民适应了整个城市的气温,那么较热的社区每年每 10 万人将多死亡约 15 人。通过理想化的分析,我们证明了目前的全市流行病学数据并不能区分这些不同的调整。鉴于本文发现的邻近地区适应性假设的影响非常大,而且目前的文献在适应性的空间尺度上存在冲突,因此迫切需要更多的邻近地区流行病学数据,以确定城市地区内热量暴露变化对健康的影响,更好地限制预计的变化,并为缓解工作提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Hawaiian Volcanic Ash, an Airborne Fomite for Nontuberculous Mycobacteria 夏威夷火山灰--非结核分枝杆菌在空气中的孳生地
IF 4.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-30 DOI: 10.1029/2023GH000889
Stephanie N. Dawrs, Ravleen Virdi, Grant J. Norton, Tamar Elias, Nabeeh A. Hasan, Schuyler Robinson, Jobel Matriz, L. Elaine Epperson, Cody M. Glickman, Sean Beagle, James L. Crooks, Stephen T. Nelson, Edward D. Chan, David E. Damby, Michael Strong, Jennifer R. Honda

Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are environmentally acquired opportunistic pathogens that can cause chronic lung disease. Within the U.S., Hawai'i shows the highest prevalence rates of NTM lung infections. Here, we investigated a potential role for active volcanism at the Kīlauea Volcano located on Hawai'i Island in promoting NTM growth and diversity. We recovered NTM that are known to cause lung disease from plumbing biofilms and soils collected from the Kīlauea environment. We also discovered viable Mycobacterium avium, Mycobacterium abscessus, and Mycobacterium intracellulare subsp. chimaera on volcanic ash collected during the 2018 Kīlauea eruption. Analysis of soil samples showed that NTM prevalence is positively associated with bulk content of phosphorus, sulfur, and total organic carbon. In growth assays, we showed that phosphorus utilization is essential for proliferation of Kīlauea-derived NTM, and demonstrate that NTM cultured with volcanic ash adhere to ash surfaces and remain viable. Ambient dust collected on O'ahu concurrent with the 2018 eruption contained abundant fresh volcanic glass, suggestive of inter-island ash transport. Phylogenomic analyses using whole genome sequencing revealed that Kīlauea-derived NTM are genetically similar to respiratory isolates identified on other Hawaiian Islands. Consequently, we posit that volcanic eruptions could redistribute environmental microorganisms over large scales. While additional studies are needed to confirm a direct role of ash in NTM dispersal, our results suggest that volcanic particulates harbor and can redistribute NTM and should therefore be studied as a fomite for these burgeoning, environmentally acquired respiratory infections.

非结核分枝杆菌(NTM)是一种通过环境获得的机会性病原体,可导致慢性肺部疾病。在美国,夏威夷的非结核分枝杆菌肺部感染率最高。在这里,我们研究了位于夏威夷岛的基劳埃阿火山的活火山活动在促进NTM生长和多样性方面的潜在作用。我们从水管生物膜和从基劳埃阿环境中采集的土壤中发现了已知会导致肺部疾病的非结核分枝杆菌。我们还在 2018 年基劳埃阿火山喷发期间收集的火山灰上发现了存活的分枝杆菌、脓肿分枝杆菌和细胞内分枝杆菌亚种 Chimaera。对土壤样本的分析表明,NTM的流行与磷、硫和总有机碳的大量含量呈正相关。在生长试验中,我们发现磷的利用对基劳埃阿火山衍生的非结核菌的增殖至关重要,并证明用火山灰培养的非结核菌能附着在火山灰表面并保持活力。2018 年火山爆发时在奥胡岛收集到的环境灰尘中含有大量新鲜火山玻璃,这表明火山灰在岛屿间进行了迁移。利用全基因组测序进行的系统发生组分析表明,基劳埃阿岛衍生的非结核性真菌在基因上与夏威夷其他岛屿上发现的呼吸道分离物相似。因此,我们认为火山爆发可能会使环境微生物在大范围内重新分布。虽然还需要更多的研究来证实火山灰在NTM传播中的直接作用,但我们的研究结果表明,火山微粒蕴藏并能重新分配NTM,因此应将其作为这些新兴的、环境获得性呼吸道感染的传播媒介进行研究。
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引用次数: 0
Water, Water Everywhere, but Every Drop Unique: Challenges in the Science to Understand the Role of Contaminants of Emerging Concern in the Management of Drinking Water Supplies 水,无处不在,但每一滴水都是独一无二的:科学认识新关注污染物在饮用水供应管理中的作用所面临的挑战
IF 4.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1029/2022GH000716
Susan T. Glassmeyer, Emily E. Burns, Michael J. Focazio, Edward T. Furlong, Matthew O. Gribble, Michael A. Jahne, Scott P. Keely, Alison R. Kennicutt, Dana W. Kolpin, Elizabeth K. Medlock Kakaley, Stacy L. Pfaller

The protection and management of water resources continues to be challenged by multiple and ongoing factors such as shifts in demographic, social, economic, and public health requirements. Physical limitations placed on access to potable supplies include natural and human-caused factors such as aquifer depletion, aging infrastructure, saltwater intrusion, floods, and drought. These factors, although varying in magnitude, spatial extent, and timing, can exacerbate the potential for contaminants of concern (CECs) to be present in sources of drinking water, infrastructure, premise plumbing and associated tap water. This monograph examines how current and emerging scientific efforts and technologies increase our understanding of the range of CECs and drinking water issues facing current and future populations. It is not intended to be read in one sitting, but is instead a starting point for scientists wanting to learn more about the issues surrounding CECs. This text discusses the topical evolution CECs over time (Section 1), improvements in measuring chemical and microbial CECs, through both analysis of concentration and toxicity (Section 2) and modeling CEC exposure and fate (Section 3), forms of treatment effective at removing chemical and microbial CECs (Section 4), and potential for human health impacts from exposure to CECs (Section 5). The paper concludes with how changes to water quantity, both scarcity and surpluses, could affect water quality (Section 6). Taken together, these sections document the past 25 years of CEC research and the regulatory response to these contaminants, the current work to identify and monitor CECs and mitigate exposure, and the challenges facing the future.

水资源的保护和管理继续受到多种持续因素的挑战,如人口、社会、经济和公共卫生需求的变化。对饮用水供应的实际限制包括自然和人为因素,如含水层枯竭、基础设施老化、盐水入侵、洪水和干旱。这些因素虽然在程度、空间范围和时间上各不相同,但都会加剧饮用水源、基础设施、前提管道和相关自来水中存在相关污染物 (CEC) 的可能性。本专著探讨了当前和新兴的科学工作和技术如何提高我们对 CECs 的范围以及当前和未来人口所面临的饮用水问题的认识。这本专著不适合一次读完,而是希望了解更多有关 CECs 问题的科学家的起点。本文讨论了 CEC 随时间推移的专题演变(第 1 节)、通过浓度和毒性分析(第 2 节)以及 CEC 暴露和归宿建模(第 3 节)测量化学和微生物 CEC 的改进、有效去除化学和微生物 CEC 的处理方式(第 4 节)以及暴露于 CEC 对人类健康造成影响的可能性(第 5 节)。本文最后介绍了水量的变化(包括稀缺和过剩)会如何影响水质(第 6 节)。总之,这些章节记录了过去 25 年对化学蚀刻性有机物的研究和对这些污染物的监管对策、当前识别和监测化学蚀刻性有机物以及减少接触的工作,以及未来面临的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Personal Exposure to Source-Specific Particulate Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Systemic Inflammation: A Cross-Sectional Study of Urban-Dwelling Older Adults in China 个人暴露于特定来源的多环芳烃颗粒物与全身炎症:中国城市老年人的横断面研究
IF 4.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1029/2023GH000933
Jia Xu, Nan Zhang, Yujuan Zhang, Penghui Li, Jinbao Han, Shuang Gao, Xinhua Wang, Chunmei Geng, Wen Yang, Liwen Zhang, Bin Han, Zhipeng Bai

Environmental exposure to ambient polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) can disturb the immune response. However, the evidence on adverse health effects caused by exposure to PAHs emitted from specific sources among different vulnerable subpopulations is limited. In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to evaluate whether exposure to source-specific PAHs could increase systemic inflammation in older adults. The present study included community-dwelling older adults and collected filter samples of personal exposure to PM2.5 during the winter of 2011. Blood samples were collected after the PM2.5 sample collection. We analyzed PM2.5 bound PAHs and serum inflammatory cytokines (interleukin (IL)1β, IL6, and tumor necrosis factor alpha levels. The Positive Matrix Factorization model was used to identify PAH sources. We used a linear regression model to assess the relative effects of source-specific PM2.5 bound PAHs on the levels of measured inflammatory cytokines. After controlling for confounders, exposure to PAHs emitted from biomass burning or diesel vehicle emission was significantly associated with increased serum inflammatory cytokines and systemic inflammation. These findings highlight the importance of considering exposure sources in epidemiological studies and controlling exposures to organic materials from specific sources.

暴露于环境中的多环芳烃(PAHs)会干扰免疫反应。然而,关于暴露于特定来源排放的多环芳烃会对不同脆弱亚人群的健康造成不良影响的证据却很有限。在这项横断面研究中,我们旨在评估接触特定来源的多环芳烃是否会增加老年人的全身炎症。本研究纳入了居住在社区的老年人,并收集了 2011 年冬季个人接触 PM2.5 的滤器样本。在采集 PM2.5 样本后,我们还采集了血液样本。我们分析了与 PM2.5 结合的多环芳烃和血清炎症细胞因子(白细胞介素 (IL)1β、IL6 和肿瘤坏死因子α)水平。正矩阵因式分解模型用于确定多环芳烃的来源。我们使用线性回归模型来评估特定来源的PM2.5结合多环芳烃对所测量的炎症细胞因子水平的相对影响。在控制了混杂因素后,暴露于生物质燃烧或柴油车排放的多环芳烃与血清炎症细胞因子和全身炎症的增加显著相关。这些发现强调了在流行病学研究中考虑暴露源并控制特定来源的有机材料暴露的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Public Health Data Applications Using the CDC Tracking Network: Augmenting Environmental Hazard Information With Lower-Latency NASA Data 使用疾病预防控制中心追踪网络的公共卫生数据应用:利用延迟较低的 NASA 数据增强环境危害信息
IF 4.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1029/2023GH000971
H. M. Amos, N. K. Skaff, S. Schollaert Uz, F. S. Policelli, D. Slayback, E. Macorps, M. J. Jo, K. Patel, C. A. Keller, P. Abue, V. Buchard, A. K. Werner

Exposure to environmental hazards is an important determinant of health, and the frequency and severity of exposures is expected to be impacted by climate change. Through a partnership with the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network is integrating timely observations and model data of priority environmental hazards into its publicly accessible Data Explorer (https://ephtracking.cdc.gov/DataExplorer/). Newly integrated data sets over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) include: daily 5-day forecasts of air quality based on the Goddard Earth Observing System Composition Forecast, daily historical (1980-present) concentrations of speciated PM2.5 based on the modern era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily near real-time maps of flooding (MCDWD). Data integrated into the CDC Tracking Network are broadly intended to improve community health through action by informing both research and early warning activities, including (a) describing temporal and spatial trends in disease and potential environmental exposures, (b) identifying populations most affected, (c) generating hypotheses about associations between health and environmental exposures, and (d) developing, guiding, and assessing environmental public health policies and interventions aimed at reducing or eliminating health outcomes associated with environmental factors.

接触环境危害是健康的一个重要决定因素,预计接触的频率和严重程度将受到气候变化的影响。通过与美国国家航空航天局的伙伴关系,美国疾病控制和预防中心的国家环境公共卫生跟踪网络正在将对优先环境危害的及时观察和模型数据纳入其可公开访问的数据浏览器(https://ephtracking.cdc.gov/DataExplorer/)。美国周边地区(CONUS)的新整合数据集包括:基于戈达德地球观测系统成分预报的每日5天空气质量预报,基于现代研究和应用回顾性分析的每日历史(1980年至今)特定PM2.5浓度,版本2,以及中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)每日近实时洪水地图(MCDWD)。纳入疾病控制和预防中心跟踪网络的数据的广泛目的是通过为研究和预警活动提供信息,采取行动改善社区卫生,包括(a)描述疾病和潜在环境暴露的时空趋势,(b)确定受影响最严重的人群,(c)产生关于健康和环境暴露之间关联的假设,以及(d)制定、指导、评估旨在减少或消除与环境因素有关的健康结果的环境公共卫生政策和干预措施。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology-Based Model 利用基于水文的模型调查灌溉对疟疾病媒幼虫栖息地和传播的影响
IF 4.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI: 10.1029/2023GH000868
Ai-Ling Jiang, Ming-Chieh Lee, Prashanth Selvaraj, Teshome Degefa, Hallelujah Getachew, Hailu Merga, Delenasaw Yewhalaw, Guiyun Yan, Kuolin Hsu

A combination of accelerated population growth and severe droughts has created pressure on food security and driven the development of irrigation schemes across sub-Saharan Africa. Irrigation has been associated with increased malaria risk, but risk prediction remains difficult due to the heterogeneity of irrigation and the environment. While investigating transmission dynamics is helpful, malaria models cannot be applied directly in irrigated regions as they typically rely only on rainfall as a source of water to quantify larval habitats. By coupling a hydrologic model with an agent-based malaria model for a sugarcane plantation site in Arjo, Ethiopia, we demonstrated how incorporating hydrologic processes to estimate larval habitats can affect malaria transmission. Using the coupled model, we then examined the impact of an existing irrigation scheme on malaria transmission dynamics. The inclusion of hydrologic processes increased the variability of larval habitat area by around two-fold and resulted in reduction in malaria transmission by 60%. In addition, irrigation increased all habitat types in the dry season by up to 7.4 times. It converted temporary and semi-permanent habitats to permanent habitats during the rainy season, which grew by about 24%. Consequently, malaria transmission was sustained all-year round and intensified during the main transmission season, with the peak shifted forward by around 1 month. Lastly, we evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of adult vectors under the effect of irrigation by resolving habitat heterogeneity. These findings could help larval source management by identifying transmission hotspots and prioritizing resources for malaria elimination planning.

人口加速增长和严重干旱共同对粮食安全造成了压力,并推动了撒哈拉以南非洲地区灌溉计划的发展。灌溉与疟疾风险增加有关,但由于灌溉和环境的异质性,风险预测仍然困难重重。虽然调查传播动态很有帮助,但疟疾模型不能直接应用于灌溉地区,因为它们通常只能依靠降雨作为水源来量化幼虫栖息地。通过将水文模型与埃塞俄比亚阿尔乔甘蔗种植园的代理疟疾模型相结合,我们展示了结合水文过程来估计幼虫栖息地如何影响疟疾传播。利用该耦合模型,我们考察了现有灌溉计划对疟疾传播动态的影响。加入水文过程后,幼虫栖息地面积的变化增加了约两倍,疟疾传播率降低了 60%。此外,灌溉使旱季的所有栖息地类型增加了 7.4 倍。在雨季,灌溉将临时和半永久性栖息地转化为永久性栖息地,增加了约 24%。因此,疟疾传播全年持续,并在主要传播季节加剧,高峰期提前了约 1 个月。最后,我们通过解决栖息地异质性问题,评估了成虫在灌溉影响下的时空分布。这些发现有助于幼虫源管理,确定传播热点,并为消除疟疾规划确定资源的优先次序。
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引用次数: 0
Dust Under the Radar: Rethinking How to Evaluate the Impacts of Dust Events on Air Quality in the United States 雷达下的沙尘:重新思考如何评估沙尘事件对美国空气质量的影响
IF 4.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI: 10.1029/2023GH000953
K. Ardon-Dryer, K. R. Clifford, J. L. Hand

Dust is an important and complex constituent of the atmospheric system, having significant impacts on the environment, climate, air quality, and human health. Although dust events are common across many regions of the United States, their impacts are not often prioritized in air quality mitigation strategies. We argue that there are at least three factors that result in underestimation of the social and environmental impact of dust events, making them receive less attention. These include (a) sparse monitoring stations with irregular spatial distribution in dust-influenced regions, (b) inconsistency with dust sampling methods, and (c) sampling frequency and schedules, which can lead to missed dust events or underestimation of dust particle concentrations. Without addressing these three factors, it is challenging to characterize and understand the full air quality impacts of dust events in the United States. This paper highlights the need for additional monitoring to measure these events so that we can more fully evaluate and understand their impacts, as they are predicted to increase with climate change.

沙尘是大气系统中一种重要而复杂的成分,对环境、气候、空气质量和人类健康有重大影响。虽然沙尘事件在美国许多地区都很常见,但其影响往往没有在空气质量缓解战略中得到优先考虑。我们认为,至少有三个因素导致低估了沙尘事件对社会和环境的影响,使其受到的关注较少。这些因素包括:(a) 监测站稀少,在沙尘影响区域的空间分布不规则;(b) 沙尘采样方法不一致;(c) 采样频率和时间安排,这可能导致沙尘事件的遗漏或沙尘颗粒浓度的低估。如果不解决这三个因素,就很难描述和了解沙尘事件对美国空气质量的全面影响。本文强调了增加监测以测量这些事件的必要性,以便我们能够更全面地评估和了解其影响,因为预计这些事件会随着气候变化而增加。
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引用次数: 0
A Spatially Resolved and Environmentally Informed Forecast Model of West Nile Virus in Coachella Valley, California 加利福尼亚州科切拉山谷西尼罗河病毒空间分辨率和环境信息预测模型
IF 4.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1029/2023GH000855
Matthew J. Ward, Meytar Sorek-Hamer, Jennifer A. Henke, Eliza Little, Aman Patel, Jeffery Shaman, Krishna Vemuri, Nicholas B. DeFelice

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most significant arbovirus in the United States in terms of both morbidity and mortality. West Nile exists in a complex transmission cycle between avian hosts and the arthropod vector, Culex spp. mosquitoes. Human spillover events occur when humans are bitten by an infected mosquito and predicting these rates of infection and therefore the risk to humans may be associated with fluctuations in environmental conditions. In this study, we evaluate the hydrological and meteorological drivers associated with mosquito biology and viral development to determine if these associations can be used to forecast seasonal mosquito infection rates with WNV in the Coachella Valley of California. We developed and tested a spatially resolved ensemble forecast model of the WNV mosquito infection rate in the Coachella Valley using 17 years of mosquito surveillance data and North American Land Data Assimilation System-2 environmental data. Our multi-model inference system indicated that the combination of a cooler and dryer winter, followed by a wetter and warmer spring, and a cooler than normal summer was most predictive of the prevalence of West Nile positive mosquitoes in the Coachella Valley. The ability to make accurate early season predictions of West Nile risk has the potential to allow local abatement districts and public health entities to implement early season interventions such as targeted adulticiding and public health messaging before human transmission occurs. Such early and targeted interventions could better mitigate the risk of WNV to humans.

西尼罗河病毒(WNV)是美国发病率和死亡率最高的虫媒病毒。西尼罗河病毒在禽类宿主和节肢动物病媒库蚊之间存在一个复杂的传播循环。当人类被受感染的蚊子叮咬时,就会发生人类外溢事件,预测这些感染率以及人类面临的风险可能与环境条件的波动有关。在本研究中,我们评估了与蚊子生物学和病毒发展相关的水文和气象驱动因素,以确定这些关联是否可用于预测加利福尼亚州科切拉谷 WNV 的季节性蚊子感染率。我们利用 17 年的蚊虫监测数据和北美陆地数据同化系统-2 环境数据,开发并测试了科切拉谷 WNV 蚊虫感染率的空间分辨集合预测模型。我们的多模型推理系统显示,冬季较凉爽干燥,春季较湿润温暖,夏季较凉爽,这三者的结合最能预测科切拉山谷西尼罗河病毒阳性蚊子的流行情况。准确预测西尼罗河病毒早期风险的能力有可能使当地消减区和公共卫生实体在人类传播发生之前实施早期干预措施,例如有针对性的成蚊杀灭和公共卫生信息传播。这种早期和有针对性的干预措施可以更好地降低西尼罗河病毒对人类的风险。
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引用次数: 0
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