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Global Pattern and Disease Heterogeneity Drivers in Aging Populations 老龄化人口的全球模式和疾病异质性驱动因素
IF 3.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1029/2025GH001335
Chengcheng Jin, Jialian Chen, Jinqiong Fang, Kaiyu Hua, Zherui Fu, Xingxing Chen, Hao Wu, Ying Hua

The unprecedented demographic shifts toward an aging population pose significant challenges to global healthcare systems. Understanding the heterogeneity in disease prevalence among the elderly is crucial for effective public health strategies. Using prevalence data of 85 types of age-related diseases, we calculated the global heterogeneity of disease distribution by the Shannon Diversity Index (SHDI). We observed significant geographic variations in disease heterogeneity, with higher SHDI values in high-income Western countries such as the United States of America and Sweden and lower in South Asia and Oceania (p < 0.05). In 2021, SHDI values in elderly populations (age ≥60 years) for Europe and North America countries were an average of 1.12 times higher than in Oceania. While SHDI increases toward higher ages (for instance, in 2021, SHDI for adults above 95 years is 1.06 times higher than for ages between 60 and 64 years), the global SHDI tends to decrease nonlinearly over time. From 1990 to 2021, global age-standardized SHDI (age ≥60 years) averagely decreased by 1.2% for both men and women. Our analysis further revealed that socio-economic factors (e.g., socio-demographic indices, governance) strongly impacted global SHDI changes, while climatic and environmental factors (e.g., extreme climate and air pollution) showed significant differences across genders. Our study highlights the need for implementing comprehensive healthcare strategies, focusing on reducing health disparities and addressing environmental and socio-economic determinants to address inequalities in age-related diseases effectively.

前所未有的人口结构向老龄化的转变对全球医疗保健系统构成了重大挑战。了解老年人疾病患病率的异质性对于制定有效的公共卫生策略至关重要。利用85种年龄相关疾病的患病率数据,利用Shannon多样性指数(SHDI)计算疾病分布的全球异质性。我们观察到疾病异质性存在显著的地理差异,高收入西方国家(如美国和瑞典)的SHDI值较高,而南亚和大洋洲的SHDI值较低(p <;0.05)。2021年,欧洲和北美国家老年人口(≥60岁)的SHDI值平均比大洋洲高1.12倍。虽然SHDI随着年龄的增长而增加(例如,2021年,95岁以上成年人的SHDI是60至64岁成年人的1.06倍),但全球SHDI倾向于随着时间的推移呈非线性下降。从1990年到2021年,男性和女性的全球年龄标准化SHDI(年龄≥60岁)平均下降了1.2%。社会经济因素(如社会人口指数、治理)强烈影响全球SHDI变化,而气候和环境因素(如极端气候和空气污染)在性别间表现出显著差异。我们的研究强调了实施综合医疗保健战略的必要性,重点是减少健康差距,解决环境和社会经济决定因素,以有效解决与年龄相关疾病的不平等问题。
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引用次数: 0
Ecological and Health Risks of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Particulate Matter in Chinese Cities 中国城市大气颗粒物中多环芳烃的生态与健康风险
IF 3.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001126
Yongfu Wu, Yuan Meng, Han Zhang, Lianglu Hao, Tao Zeng, Yan Shi, Yunhe Chen, Ni Qiao, Yibin Ren

During the first two decades of the 21st century, the level of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) pollution in urban atmospheric particulate matter (PM) in China significantly increased. By combining data from more than 6,695 individual samples covering 89 typical cities (population > 0.5 million people) across China, this study focuses on evaluating the health risks to urban residents and the ecological risks to the surrounding environment from PAHs in PM using the methods of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and sediment quality standards. The PAH contents and contamination levels in Central China (CC) were lower than those in South China (SC) and North China (NC). NC exhibited the most severe PAH pollution and greatest ecological risk, while CC had the highest population density and gross domestic product. The incremental lifetime cancer risk and hazard index values for people in NC were greater than those for people in CC and SC, and the health risk increased with increasing latitude. Based on ecological risk criteria and standard assessment methods, PAHs in PM in China pose a potential ecological risk, and the risk of harmful biological effects follows the order of NC > CC > SC. Given the significant risks of PAHs to people, animals and plants at both the national and global scales, under the guidance of the One Health concept of the World Health Organization, it is necessary to comprehensively manage PAHs in PM and reduce their threats to humans and ecosystems.

21世纪前20年,中国城市大气颗粒物(PM)中多环芳烃(PAH)污染水平显著升高。通过综合来自89个典型城市(人口>;本研究采用美国环境保护署的方法和沉积物质量标准,重点评价PM中多环芳烃对城市居民的健康风险和对周围环境的生态风险。中国中部(CC)的多环芳烃含量和污染水平均低于华南(SC)和华北(NC)。南昌市多环芳烃污染最严重,生态风险最大,而南昌市人口密度和国内生产总值最高。北纬地区人群终生癌症风险增量和危害指数值均大于北纬地区和北纬地区人群,且健康风险随纬度的增加而增加。基于生态风险准则和标准评价方法,中国PM中多环芳烃具有潜在的生态风险,有害生物效应风险大小依次为NC和gt;CC祝辞SC.鉴于多环芳烃在国家和全球范围内对人类、动物和植物的重大风险,在世界卫生组织“同一个健康”理念的指导下,有必要对PM中的多环芳烃进行全面管理,减少其对人类和生态系统的威胁。
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引用次数: 0
Joint Effects of Wildfire Smoke and Extreme Heat on Hospitalizations in California, 2011–2020 2011-2020年加州野火烟雾和极端高温对住院治疗的共同影响
IF 3.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001237
Caitlin G. Jones-Ngo, Rebecca J. Schmidt, Erwan Monier, Sara Ludwick, Mohammad Z. Al-Hamdan, Jason Vargo, Kathryn C. Conlon

Wildfire smoke and extreme heat events are worsening in California, but their combined health effects are not well understood. This study estimates joint effects of extreme heat and wildfire smoke on hospitalizations in California, 2011–2020. We used a case crossover design with time-stratified controls and conditional logistic regression to estimate these effects at multiplicative and additive scales. Exposures were assessed for 16 combinations of exposure lags (0–3 days) for extreme heat and wildfire influenced fine particulate matter. Among over 28 million cases of all-natural cause morbidity, the majority were adults aged 65 and older (41.4%), English speakers (85.1%), and White, non-Hispanic (49.7%), mostly residing in urban areas (97.2%). The study found roughly 8% of respiratory morbidities (95% CI, 2.4%–13.8%) were attributable to the interaction of wildfire smoke and extreme heat. Significant joint effects were also observed for cardiovascular (5.5%) and renal morbidities (6.2%). Subgroup analyses revealed stronger effects: Respiratory (19.2%, 95% CI 6.5%–32.1%) and cerebrovascular morbidities (15.7%, 95% CI 4%–27.4%) were most pronounced in Black individuals; older adults (50–64 years) showed strong effects for renal morbidities (15.4%, 95% CI −1.6%−32.6%); and cardiovascular effects were highest among females (9.8%, 95% CI 2.9%–16.7%). Effects on all-natural cause morbidity were generally null. The interaction of wildfire smoke and extreme heat within a short exposure window (4 days) increases hospitalizations; highlighting the need for joint heat and wildfire smoke interventions that target populations at greater risk.

野火烟雾和极端高温事件在加州正在恶化,但它们对健康的综合影响尚不清楚。本研究估计了2011-2020年加州极端高温和野火烟雾对住院治疗的共同影响。我们使用时间分层对照和条件逻辑回归的病例交叉设计来估计乘法和加性尺度上的这些影响。对极端高温和野火影响的细颗粒物的16种暴露滞后(0-3天)组合进行了暴露评估。在超过2800万的全自然原因发病病例中,大多数是65岁及以上的成年人(41.4%),英语使用者(85.1%)和白人,非西班牙裔(49.7%),主要居住在城市地区(97.2%)。研究发现,大约8%的呼吸系统疾病(95% CI, 2.4%-13.8%)可归因于野火烟雾和极端高温的相互作用。在心血管疾病(5.5%)和肾脏疾病(6.2%)方面也观察到显著的联合效应。亚组分析显示更强的影响:呼吸(19.2%,95% CI 6.5%-32.1%)和脑血管发病率(15.7%,95% CI 4%-27.4%)在黑人中最为显著;老年人(50-64岁)对肾脏疾病有较强的影响(15.4%,95% CI - 1.6% - 32.6%);和心血管效应在女性中最高(9.8%,95% CI 2.9%-16.7%)。对全自然原因发病率的影响一般为零。在短暴露窗口(4天)内,野火烟雾和极端高温的相互作用增加了住院率;强调需要针对风险较大的人群采取高温和野火烟雾联合干预措施。
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引用次数: 0
Cell Death and Proliferation Variability Caused by Different Dust Clay Minerals Using the Single-Cell Method 用单细胞法研究不同粉尘黏土矿物引起的细胞死亡和增殖变异
IF 3.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001280
Z. Ramirez-Diaz, A. Deonarine, M. Plantier, N. Shaghaghi, K. Ardon-Dryer

Dust storms are recurring atmospheric phenomena in arid and semiarid regions that decrease air quality and pose significant health risks. However, there is still no consensus on why some dust storms are more toxic than others. To understand the influence of dust on particle size and composition, in vitro experiments were performed evaluating the impact of five different clay minerals: montmorillonites (montmorillonite, Na-rich montmorillonite, and Ca-rich montmorillonite), illite, and kaolinite on human epithelial alveolar cells (A549) utilizing the Single-Cell Analysis. Unlike other population techniques, this analysis monitors each cell individually by coupling fluorescent microscopy with an incubation system to continuously image the cells every 15 min for 48-hr. This live-cell imaging analysis was used to calculate the exact time of death, division rate, and type of death (apoptosis and necrosis). Ca-rich Montmorillonite and Kaolinite were the most and least toxic clays, respectively. Although Ca-rich Montmorillonite caused a significant increase in cell death and a decrease in cell proliferation compared to Kaolinite, both clays had a similar impact on the type of death (necrosis replaced apoptosis as the primary mechanism for cell death). Observations on the exact time of death show a significant increase in the rate of death between 34- and 48-hr post-exposure indicating a possible delay in health impact.

沙尘暴是干旱和半干旱地区反复出现的大气现象,会降低空气质量并对健康构成重大威胁。然而,对于为什么一些沙尘暴比其他沙尘暴毒性更大,人们仍然没有达成共识。为了了解粉尘对颗粒大小和组成的影响,我们进行了体外实验,利用单细胞分析技术评估了五种不同粘土矿物:蒙脱土(蒙脱土、富钠蒙脱土和富钙蒙脱土)、伊利石和高岭石对人上皮肺泡细胞(A549)的影响。与其他群体技术不同,该分析通过将荧光显微镜与孵育系统相结合来单独监测每个细胞,每15分钟连续成像48小时。这种活细胞成像分析用于计算准确的死亡时间、分裂率和死亡类型(凋亡和坏死)。富钙蒙脱石和高岭石分别是毒性最强和最小的粘土。尽管与高岭土相比,富钙蒙脱土导致细胞死亡的显著增加和细胞增殖的减少,但两种粘土对死亡类型的影响相似(坏死取代凋亡成为细胞死亡的主要机制)。对确切死亡时间的观察表明,在接触后34至48小时期间,死亡率显著增加,表明健康影响可能延迟。
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引用次数: 0
Conceptual GeoHealth Framework for Disaster Response Research: Case Study for Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) Fires and Data Integration 灾害响应研究的概念地球健康框架:荒地城市界面(WUI)火灾和数据集成的案例研究
IF 3.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-31 DOI: 10.1029/2025GH001380
J. Barkoski, A. Liu, E. Van Fleet, S. Ramsey, A. Miller

With climate change contributing to an increase in frequency and severity of extreme weather events like wildfires, droughts, and hurricanes, there is a growing need for coordinated research efforts to understand the impact of these events on human health. Specialized research frameworks can help interdisciplinary teams organize and visualize complex exposure-health pathways, identify knowledge gaps, and enhance coordination and communication across diverse groups of stakeholders. This article describes the development and application of a conceptual framework for wildfire-related exposures and human health outcomes. This framework serves as a tool for integrating data resources and mapping known and hypothesized connections, between complex wildfire exposures and human health outcomes, across the lifecycle of a wildland urban interface (WUI) fire. We also demonstrate the utility and flexibility of this framework for disaster research settings through two example applications. The first demonstrates an application for studying WUI fires and respiratory health outcomes, and the second example shows how the framework can be expanded to visualize exposure and health modeling with potential biomarkers of exposure and effect. Our GeoHealth Framework for WUI Fires illustrates complex linkages between wildfire related exposures and health outcomes and highlights areas for future study. Given the destruction and complexity of WUI fires, this framework provides an important resource that can assist with evaluating these complex exposure-health relationships, guiding and coordinating data collection, and informing communities and decision-makers to improve response, recovery, and future preparedness for such events in the United States and globally.

随着气候变化导致野火、干旱和飓风等极端天气事件的频率和严重程度增加,越来越需要协调研究工作,以了解这些事件对人类健康的影响。专门的研究框架可以帮助跨学科团队组织和可视化复杂的暴露-健康途径,确定知识差距,并加强不同利益相关者群体之间的协调和沟通。本文描述了与野火有关的暴露和人类健康后果的概念框架的发展和应用。该框架可作为整合数据资源和绘制复杂野火暴露与人类健康结果之间已知和假设联系的工具,涵盖荒地-城市界面(WUI)火灾的整个生命周期。我们还通过两个示例应用程序演示了该框架在灾害研究设置中的实用性和灵活性。第一个示例演示了用于研究WUI火灾和呼吸系统健康结果的应用程序,第二个示例展示了如何扩展该框架,以便使用潜在的暴露和影响生物标志物可视化暴露和健康建模。我们针对WUI火灾的地球健康框架说明了与野火相关的暴露与健康结果之间的复杂联系,并突出了未来研究的领域。考虑到WUI火灾的破坏性和复杂性,该框架提供了一个重要的资源,可以帮助评估这些复杂的暴露与健康关系,指导和协调数据收集,并告知社区和决策者改善美国和全球此类事件的响应、恢复和未来准备。
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引用次数: 0
Hypereutrophication, Hydrogen Sulfide, and Environmental Injustices: Mechanisms and Knowledge Gaps at the Salton Sea 富营养化、硫化氢和环境不公正:索尔顿海的机制和知识空白
IF 3.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-31 DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001327
Diego Centeno, Alejandra G. Lopez, Aydee Palomino, Juliana Taboada, Ryan Sinclair, Quinn Montgomery, Consuelo Marquez, Migdalia N. Sanchez, Isabella B. Arzeno-Soltero, Mara A. Freilich

The Salton Sea, California's largest lake, is undergoing significant environmental degradation, which has adverse health effects on nearby rural communities, primarily Latinx and Torres Martinez Desert Cahuilla Indian. Over the past two decades, the lake's water levels have steadily dropped. Water conditions in the Sea, characterized by low oxygen and high nutrient levels, favor the production of hydrogen sulfide (H2S). This study investigates the connection between the Sea's changing conditions, particularly the worsening water quality, and H2S emissions using air quality and water quality data collected since 2013 and 2004, respectively. H2S concentrations often exceed California's air quality standards, particularly in areas near the Sea during summer months. Wind patterns substantially impact detection of H2S. When wind is blowing from the Sea toward communities with sensors, located to the northwest of the Sea, H2S is detected significantly more often. Current monitoring efforts underestimate the frequency and distribution of H2S that exceeds air quality standards. An air sensor deployed in shallow water over the Salton Sea by a community science program detected substantially higher concentrations of H2S, particularly when wind was blowing over exposed sediment and shallow water, suggesting that these are a significant and overlooked H2S source at the Salton Sea. These findings highlight the need for improved air quality monitoring and more effective environmental management policies to protect public health in the region. The study emphasizes the importance of community-led solutions and provides insights relevant to other regions experiencing similar environmental crises.

加州最大的湖泊索尔顿海正在经历严重的环境退化,这对附近的农村社区产生了不利的健康影响,主要是拉丁裔和托雷斯马丁内斯沙漠卡韦拉印第安人。在过去的二十年里,该湖的水位稳步下降。海洋的水条件以低氧和高营养水平为特征,有利于硫化氢(H2S)的产生。本研究分别利用2013年和2004年以来收集的空气质量和水质数据,调查了海洋变化条件(特别是不断恶化的水质)与H2S排放之间的关系。H2S浓度经常超过加州的空气质量标准,特别是在夏季的海边地区。风型对H2S的检测有很大的影响。当风从海上吹向位于海洋西北部的传感器群落时,检测到H2S的频率明显更高。目前的监测工作低估了超出空气质量标准的H2S的频率和分布。一个社区科学项目在Salton海的浅水区部署了一个空气传感器,检测到高浓度的H2S,特别是当风吹过暴露的沉积物和浅水区时,这表明这些是Salton海重要的、被忽视的H2S来源。这些调查结果突出表明,需要改进空气质量监测和更有效的环境管理政策,以保护该区域的公众健康。该研究强调了社区主导解决方案的重要性,并为其他经历类似环境危机的地区提供了相关见解。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of Breaching Planetary Boundaries on Human Health: Current and Future Threats 突破地球边界对人类健康的影响:当前和未来的威胁
IF 3.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-31 DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001107
Ricky Anak Kemarau, Zaini Sakawi, Oliver Valentine Eboy, Wan Shafrina Wan Mohd Jaafar, Zulfaqar Sa'adi, Stanley Anak Suab

This review examines the impact of breaching planetary boundaries on human health and potential future threats, emphasizing the need for effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Through a rigorous literature review of 142 high-quality articles, we explore the health implications of breaching planetary boundaries such as climate change, land system change, biodiversity loss, biogeochemical flows, aerosol loading, stratospheric ozone depletion, freshwater use, novel entities, and ocean acidification. Our findings indicate a direct association between breached planetary boundaries and a range of health risks, including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, increased infectious disease vulnerability, and nutritional impacts due to compromised food sources. The analysis highlights the disproportionate effects on vulnerable populations and underscores the significance of localized and global strategies in mitigating these health threats. Effective measures, including urban planning for green spaces and pollution control, have been identified as crucial. The review calls for an integrated, interdisciplinary approach to safeguard human health against the backdrop of environmental degradation, stressing the urgency of global collaboration in policy development and implementation.

本次审查审查了突破地球边界对人类健康的影响和未来的潜在威胁,强调需要制定有效的缓解和适应战略。通过对142篇高质量文章的严格文献综述,我们探讨了突破地球边界对健康的影响,如气候变化、土地系统变化、生物多样性丧失、生物地球化学流动、气溶胶负荷、平流层臭氧消耗、淡水利用、新型实体和海洋酸化。我们的研究结果表明,突破地球边界与一系列健康风险之间存在直接关联,包括呼吸系统和心血管疾病、传染病易感性增加以及食物来源受损造成的营养影响。分析强调了对弱势群体的不成比例的影响,并强调了地方和全球战略在减轻这些健康威胁方面的重要性。包括城市绿地规划和污染控制在内的有效措施被认为是至关重要的。该审查呼吁在环境退化的背景下采取综合的、跨学科的办法来保障人类健康,并强调迫切需要在政策制定和执行方面进行全球合作。
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引用次数: 0
Health-Related Quality of Life and Everyday Functioning in the Flood-Affected Population in Germany - A Case Study of the 2021 Floods in West Germany 德国受洪水影响人口的健康相关生活质量和日常功能——以2021年西德洪水为例
IF 3.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001135
Nivedita Sairam, Anna Buch, Marie-Luise Zenker, Lisa Dillenardt, Michaela Coenen, Annegret H. Thieken, Caroline Jung-Sievers

Floods lead to adverse impacts not only in financial terms but also on the health of the exposed population. We report on health-related Quality of Life (QoL) and functioning in the population affected by the 2021 flooding in Germany using an empirical survey data set. Health-related QoL and functioning are represented by two scores–(a) The EuroQoL 5D Visual Analog Scale (EQ-5D VAS) and (b) The 12-Item World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS 2.0), respectively. By applying an incremental linear regression model and Machine Learning models, we infer that health-related QoL and functioning are strongly negatively related to the psychological burden from those being affected by the flooding. This includes how often they think about the traumatic event. Home owners were found to have worse QoL and functioning than tenants. Household income and the status of repair/reconstruction of flood damages—in specific, insurance benefits, private donation and satisfactory claims compensation are associated with high health-related QoL and functioning. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening the health-related QoL of flood affected populations and emphasizes the strong association between recovery and health-related QoL and functioning of flood-affected populations.

洪水不仅在财政方面造成不利影响,而且对受影响人口的健康也造成不利影响。我们使用实证调查数据集报告了受2021年德国洪水影响的人群的健康相关生活质量(QoL)和功能。与健康相关的生活质量和功能由两个分数表示- (a) EuroQoL 5D视觉模拟量表(EQ-5D VAS)和(b) 12项世界卫生组织残疾评估表(WHODAS 2.0)。通过应用增量线性回归模型和机器学习模型,我们推断与健康相关的生活质量和功能与受洪水影响的人的心理负担呈强烈负相关。这包括他们想起创伤性事件的频率。房主的生活质量和功能比租户差。家庭收入和洪水灾害的修复/重建状况(具体而言,保险福利、私人捐赠和令人满意的索赔赔偿)与较高的健康相关生活质量和功能相关。这些发现强调了加强洪水受灾人群健康相关生活质量的重要性,并强调了恢复与健康相关生活质量和洪水受灾人群功能之间的密切联系。
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引用次数: 0
Association of Ambient Temperature and Relative Humidity With Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections Among Hospitalized Children in Suzhou, Eastern China: A Time-Series Analysis 苏州地区住院儿童环境温度和相对湿度与呼吸道合胞体病毒感染的关系:时间序列分析
IF 3.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1029/2025GH001353
Yingfeng Lu, Shaolong Ren, Xuejun Shao, Jianmei Tian, Feifei Hu, Fang Yao, Tao Zhang, Genming Zhao

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of clinical pneumonia in children. We aimed to investigate the associations between ambient temperature, relative humidity, and pediatric RSV infections, and to assess the disease burden attributable to cold or humid conditions. Daily data on RSV hospitalizations among children aged ≤5 years, mean temperature, and relative humidity in Suzhou, China, from January 2016 to December 2019 were collected. A distributed lag nonlinear model with quasi-Poisson regression was employed to assess the exposure-lag-response associations. Attributable risks were calculated to quantify the disease burden due to climatic factors. We found an inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and RSV infections, with the cumulative risk of RSV peaking at 7.5°C (RR = 4.30, 95% CI: 3.08–6.02). The exposure-response curves for relative humidity exhibited a generally positive trend, peaking at 100.0% (RR = 3.14, 95% CI: 1.84–5.34). Using median values as references, the highest risk effects of extremely low (RR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.04–1.25) and low (RR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.12–1.32) temperatures, as well as high (RR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04–1.13) and extremely high (RR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.07–1.27) relative humidity, occurred on the day of exposure and persisted for extended periods. The attributable fraction of RSV infections associated with cold or humid conditions was 55.23% (95% CI: 50.01%–64.03%) and 12.02% (95% CI: 9.36%–20.24%), respectively. The risk effect of high relative humidity was stronger in children aged 1–5 years. Our findings suggest nonlinear, lagged associations between climatic factors and pediatric RSV infections, which may inform future healthcare planning and RSV immunization strategies.

呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV)是儿童临床肺炎的主要原因。我们的目的是调查环境温度、相对湿度和儿童呼吸道合气道病毒感染之间的关系,并评估由寒冷或潮湿条件引起的疾病负担。收集2016年1月至2019年12月中国苏州≤5岁儿童RSV住院、平均温度和相对湿度的每日数据。采用拟泊松回归的分布滞后非线性模型来评估暴露-滞后-反应关系。计算归因风险以量化气候因素造成的疾病负担。我们发现温度与RSV感染之间呈倒u型关系,RSV的累积风险在7.5°C时达到峰值(RR = 4.30, 95% CI: 3.08-6.02)。相对湿度的暴露响应曲线总体呈正相关,在100.0%处达到峰值(RR = 3.14, 95% CI: 1.84 ~ 5.34)。使用中位数作为参考,极低(RR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.04-1.25)和低(RR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.12-1.32)温度以及高(RR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04-1.13)和极高(RR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.07-1.27)相对湿度的最高风险效应发生在暴露当天并持续较长时间。RSV感染与寒冷或潮湿环境相关的归因比例分别为55.23% (95% CI: 50.01%-64.03%)和12.02% (95% CI: 9.36%-20.24%)。高相对湿度对1 ~ 5岁儿童的危险效应更强。我们的研究结果表明,气候因素与儿童RSV感染之间存在非线性滞后关联,这可能为未来的医疗保健计划和RSV免疫策略提供信息。
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The Non-Linear Effects of Urban Green Space on Promoting Physical Activity of Old Adults at Different Obesity Status in Semi-Arid Area: A Case Study of Lanzhou, China 半干旱区城市绿地对不同肥胖状态老年人身体活动的非线性促进效应——以兰州市为例
IF 3.8 2区 医学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1029/2024GH001273
Hualong Qiu, Haoran Tang, Yiyang Yang

A substantial body of research has linked the built environment to obesity risk in older adults, with physical activity reducing obesity risk. Most studies have focused on temperate and subtropical regions; however, results can vary due to different climate characteristics. This study examines Lanzhou, a representative of arid Northwestern China, to explore the nonlinear relationship between the built environment and physical activity among older adults, focusing on the role of green spaces. By using the XGBoost method, we analyze how green spaces and the 5D built environment affect physical activity levels among the obese and standard-weight elderly populations in Lanzhou. Results indicate that green spaces significantly influence physical activity in both groups, with their effect surpassing other environmental and sociodemographic factors. Obese elderly individuals are more influenced by green space quality and accessibility, while standard-weight individuals are more affected by the overall quantity and coverage of green spaces. Obese individuals also rely more on street greening compared with their standard-weight counterparts. In addition, a diverse urban environment and appropriate public transportation distances are crucial for promoting physical activity among the elderly. Low temperatures inhibit physical activity more in obese elderly individuals. Our findings provide insights for policymakers, planners, and designers on optimizing green infrastructure to reduce obesity risks among the elderly in arid regions, ultimately enhancing the urban environment's effectiveness in promoting healthy aging.

大量研究已经将建筑环境与老年人肥胖风险联系起来,而体育活动可以降低肥胖风险。大多数研究集中在温带和亚热带地区;然而,由于不同的气候特征,结果可能有所不同。本研究以中国西北干旱地区为代表的兰州为研究对象,探讨了建筑环境与老年人身体活动之间的非线性关系,重点关注绿地的作用。采用XGBoost方法,分析了绿地和5D建成环境对兰州市肥胖和标准体重老年人身体活动水平的影响。结果表明,绿地对两组人群的身体活动都有显著影响,其影响超过了其他环境和社会人口因素。肥胖老年人更受绿地质量和可达性的影响,而标准体重老年人更受绿地总体数量和覆盖率的影响。与体重正常的人相比,肥胖的人也更依赖于街道绿化。此外,多样化的城市环境和适当的公共交通距离对于促进老年人的身体活动至关重要。低温更能抑制肥胖老年人的身体活动。我们的研究结果为决策者、规划者和设计师提供了优化绿色基础设施以降低干旱地区老年人肥胖风险的见解,最终提高城市环境促进健康老龄化的有效性。
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