Geohealth最新文献

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), a complicated metabolic disease, might be developed or exacerbated by air pollution, resulting in economic and health burden to patients. So far, limited studies have estimated associations between short-term exposure to air pollution and disease burden of T2DM in China. Hence, we aimed to estimate the associations and burden of ambient air pollutants (NO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, SO₂, and CO) on hospital admissions (HAs) for T2DM using a time-stratified case-crossover design. Data on HAs for T2DM during 2017–2019 were collected from hospital electronic health records in nine cities in Sichuan Province using conditional poisson regression. Totally, 92,381 T2DM hospitalizations were recorded. There were significant short-term effects of NO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, SO₂ and CO on HAs for T2DM. A 10 μg/m³ increment of NO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, SO₂ and CO as linked with a 3.39% (95% CI: 2.26%, 4.54%), 0.33% (95% CI: 0.04%, 0.62%), 0.76% (95% CI: 0.35%, 1.16%), 12.68% (95% CI: 8.14%, 17.42%) and 79.00% (95% CI: 39.81%, 129.18%) increase in HAs for T2DM at lag 6. Stratified analyses modified by age, sex, and season showed old (≥65 years) and female patients linked with higher impacts. Using WHO's air quality guidelines of NO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and CO as the reference, the attributable number of T2DM HAs exceeding these pollutants exposures were 786, 323, 793, and 2,127 during 2017–2019. Besides, the total medical costs of 25.83, 10.54, 30.74, and 67.78 million China Yuan were attributed to NO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and CO. In conclusion, short-term exposures to air pollutants were associated with higher risks of HAs for T2DM.

Electronic waste that has not been properly treated can lead to environmental contamination including of heavy metals, which can pose risks to human health. Infants, a sensitive group, are highly susceptible to heavy metals exposure. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between prenatal heavy metal exposure and infant birth outcomes in an e-waste recycling area in China. We analyzed cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), lead (Pb), copper (Cu), and arsenic (As) concentrations in 102 human milk samples collected 4 weeks after delivery. The results showed that 34.3% of participants for Cr, which exceeds the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, as well as the mean exposure of Cr exceeded the WHO guidelines. We collected data on the birth weight (BW) and length of infants and analyzed the association between metal concentration in human milk and birth outcomes using multivariable linear regression. We observed a significant negative association between the Cd concentration in maternal milk and BW in female infants (β = −162.72, 95% CI = −303.16, −22.25). In contrast, heavy metals did not associate with birth outcomes in male infants. In this study, we found that 34.3% of participants in an e-waste recycling area had a Cr concentration that exceeded WHO guidelines, and there was a significant negative association between prenatal exposure to the Cd and infant BW in females. These results suggest that prenatal exposure to heavy metals in e-waste recycling areas may lead to adverse birth outcomes, especially for female infants.

Shoreline cities are influenced by both urban-scale processes and land-water interactions, with consequences on heat exposure and its disparities. Heat exposure studies over these cities have focused on air and skin temperature, even though moisture advection from water bodies can also modulate heat stress. Here, using an ensemble of model simulations covering Chicago, we find that Lake Michigan strongly reduces heat exposure (2.75°C reduction in maximum average air temperature in Chicago) and heat stress (maximum average wet bulb globe temperature reduced by 0.86°C) during the day, while urbanization enhances them at night (2.75 and 1.57°C increases in minimum average air and wet bulb globe temperature, respectively). We also demonstrate that urban and lake impacts on temperature (particularly skin temperature), including their extremes, and lake-to-land gradients, are stronger than the corresponding impacts on heat stress, partly due to humidity-related feedback. Likewise, environmental disparities across community areas in Chicago seen for skin temperature are much higher (1.29°C increase for maximum average values per $10,000 higher median income per capita) than disparities in air temperature (0.50°C increase) and wet bulb globe temperature (0.23°C increase). The results call for consistent use of physiologically relevant heat exposure metrics to accurately capture the public health implications of urbanization.

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental United States (CONUS). Spatial heterogeneity in historical incidence, environmental factors, and complex ecology make prediction of spatiotemporal variation in WNV transmission challenging. Machine learning provides promising tools for identification of important variables in such situations. To predict annual WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases in CONUS (2015–2021), we fitted 10 probabilistic models with variation in complexity from naïve to machine learning algorithm and an ensemble. We made predictions in each of nine climate regions on a hexagonal grid and evaluated each model's predictive accuracy. Using the machine learning models (random forest and neural network), we identified the relative importance and variation in ranking of predictors (historical WNND cases, climate anomalies, human demographics, and land use) across regions. We found that historical WNND cases and population density were among the most important factors while anomalies in temperature and precipitation often had relatively low importance. While the relative performance of each model varied across climatic regions, the magnitude of difference between models was small. All models except the naïve model had non-significant differences in performance relative to the baseline model (negative binomial model fit per hexagon). No model, including the ensemble or more complex machine learning models, outperformed models based on historical case counts on the hexagon or region level; these models are good forecasting benchmarks. Further work is needed to assess if predictive capacity can be improved beyond that of these historical baselines.

One of the most extensive natural plague centers, or foci, is located in Central Asia, in particular, the Zhambyl region in Southern Kazakhstan. Here, we conducted plague surveillance from 2000 to 2020 in the Zhambyl region in Kazakhstan and confirmed 3,072 cases of infected wild animals. We used Species Distribution Modeling by employing MaxEnt, and identified that the natural plague foci are primarily located in the Moiynqum, Betpaqdala, and Tauqum Deserts. The Zhambyl region's central part, including the Moiynqum and Sarysu districts, has a high potential risk of plague outbreak for the rural towns and villages. Since the phenomenon of climate change has been identified as a determinant that affects the rodent populations, thereby elevating the likelihood of an outbreak of plague, we investigated the potential dissemination routes of the disease under the changing climate conditions, thus creating Species Distribution Forecasts for the rodent species in southern part of Kazakhstan for the year 2100. By 2100, in case of increasing temperatures, the range of host species is likely to expand, leading to a higher risk of plague outbreaks. The highest risk of disease transmission can be expected at the outer limits of the modeled total distribution range, where infection rates are high, but antibody presence is low, making many species susceptible to the pathogen. To mitigate the risk of a potential plague outbreak, it is necessary to implement appropriate sanitary-epidemiological measures and climate mitigation policies.

In many regions of the world, including the United States, human and animal fecal genetic markers have been found in flood waters. In this study, we use high-resolution whole genomic sequencing to examine the origin and distribution of Salmonella enterica after the 2018 Hurricane Florence flooding. We specifically asked whether S. enterica isolated from water samples collected near swine farms in North Carolina shortly after Hurricane Florence had evidence of swine origin. To investigate this, we isolated and fully sequenced 18 independent S. enterica strains from 10 locations (five flooded and five unflooded). We found that all strains have extremely similar chromosomes with only five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and possessed two plasmids assigned bioinformatically to the incompatibility groups IncFIB and IncFII. The chromosomal core genome and the IncFIB plasmid are most closely related to environmental Salmonella strains isolated previously from the southeastern US. In contrast, the IncFII plasmid was found in environmental S. enterica strains whose genomes were more divergent, suggesting the IncFII plasmid is more promiscuous than the IncFIB type. We identified 65 antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in each of our 18 S. enterica isolates. All ARGs were located on the Salmonella chromosome, similar to other previously characterized environmental isolates. All isolates with different SNPs were resistant to a panel of commonly used antibiotics. These results highlight the importance of environmental sources of antibiotic-resistant S. enterica after extreme flood events.

Compressor stations maintain pressure along natural gas pipelines to sustain gas flow. Unfortunately, they present human health concerns as they release chemical pollutants into the air, sometimes at levels higher than national air quality standards. Further, compressor stations are often placed in rural areas with higher levels of poverty and/or minority populations, contributing to environmental justice concerns. In this paper we investigate what chemical pollutants are emitted by compressor stations, the impacts of emitted pollutants on human health, and local community impacts. Based on the information gained from these examinations, we provide the following policy recommendations with the goal of minimizing harm to those affected by natural gas compressor stations: the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and relevant state agencies must increase air quality monitoring and data transparency; the EPA should direct more resources to monitoring programs specifically at compressor stations; the EPA should provide free indoor air quality monitoring to homes near compressor stations; the EPA needs to adjust its National Ambient Air Quality Standards to better protect communities and assess cumulative impacts; and decision-makers at all levels must pursue meaningful involvement from potentially affected communities. We find there is substantial evidence of negative impacts to strongly support these recommendations.

The increasing prevalence of warmer trends and climate extremes exacerbate the population's exposure to urban settlements. This work investigated population exposure changes to mean and extreme climate events in different Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Pakistan and associated mechanisms (1979−2020). Spatiotemporal trends in mean and extreme temperatures revealed significant warming mainly over northern, northeastern, and southern AEZs. In contrast, mean-to-extreme precipitation changes showed non-uniform patterns with a significant increase in the northeast AEZs. Population exposure to mean (extreme) temperature and precipitation events increased two-fold during 2000–2020. The AEZs in urban settlements (i.e., Indus Delta, Northern Irrigated Plain, and Barani/Rainfall) show a maximum exposure to extreme temperatures of about 70–100 × 10⁶ (person-days) in the reference period (1979−1999), which increases to 140–200 × 10⁶ person-days in the recent period (2000−2020). In addition, the highest exposure to extreme precipitation days also increases to 40–200 × 10⁶ person-days during 2000–2020 than 1979−1999 (20–100 × 10⁶) person-days. Relative changes in exposure are large (60%–90%) for the AEZs across northeast Pakistan, justifying the spatial population patterns over these zones. Overall, the observed changes in exposure are primarily attributed to the climate effect (50%) over most AEZs except Northern Irrigated Plain for R10 and R20 events, where the interaction effect takes the lead. The population exposure rapidly increased over major AEZs of Pakistan, which could be more vulnerable to extreme events due to rapid urbanization and population growth in the near future.

Past emission controls in the UK have substantially reduced precursor emissions of health-hazardous fine particles (PM_2.5) and nitrogen pollution detrimental to ecosystems. Still, 79% of the UK exceeds the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline for annual mean PM_2.5 of 5 μg m⁻³ and there is no enforcement of controls on agricultural sources of ammonia (NH₃). NH₃ is a phytotoxin and an increasingly large contributor to PM_2.5 and nitrogen deposited to sensitive habitats. Here we use emissions projections, the GEOS-Chem model, high-resolution data sets, and contemporary exposure-risk relationships to assess potential human and ecosystem health co-benefits in 2030 relative to the present day of adopting legislated or best available emission control measures. We estimate that present-day annual adult premature mortality attributable to exposure to PM_2.5 is 48,625 (95% confidence interval: 45,188–52,595), that harmful amounts of reactive nitrogen deposit to almost all (95%) sensitive habitat areas, and that 75% of ambient NH₃ exceeds levels safe for bryophytes and lichens. Legal measures decrease the extent of the UK above the WHO guideline to 58% and avoid 6,800 premature deaths by 2030. This improves with best available measures to 36% of the UK and 13,300 avoided deaths. Both legal and best available measures are insufficient at reducing the extent of damage of nitrogen pollution to sensitive habitats. Far more ambitious reductions in nitrogen emissions (>80%) than is achievable with best available measures (34%) are required to halve the amount of excess nitrogen deposited to sensitive habitats.

Yellow Fever (YF), a mosquito-borne disease, requires ongoing surveillance and prevention due to its persistence and ability to cause major epidemics, including one that began in Brazil in 2016. Forecasting based on factors influencing YF risk can improve efficiency in prevention. This study aimed to produce weekly forecasts of YF occurrence and incidence in Brazil using weekly meteorological and ecohydrological conditions. Occurrence was forecast as the probability of observing any cases, and incidence was forecast to represent morbidity if YF occurs. We fit gamma hurdle models, selecting predictors from several meteorological and ecohydrological factors, based on forecast accuracy defined by receiver operator characteristic curves and mean absolute error. We fit separate models for data before and after the start of the 2016 outbreak, forecasting occurrence and incidence for all municipalities of Brazil weekly. Different predictor sets were found to produce most accurate forecasts in each time period, and forecast accuracy was high for both time periods. Temperature, precipitation, and previous YF burden were most influential predictors among models. Minimum, maximum, mean, and range of weekly temperature, precipitation, and humidity contributed to forecasts, with optimal lag times of 2, 6, and 7 weeks depending on time period. Results from this study show the use of environmental predictors in providing regular forecasts of YF burden and producing nationwide forecasts. Weekly forecasts, which can be produced using the forecast model developed in this study, are beneficial for informing immediate preparedness measures.