Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies最新文献_第10页

Re-thinking levee strategies for aggradation-driven flood risk in the Waiho River, New Zealand 重新思考新西兰怀荷河洪水风险的堤防策略

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103143

Zhengmin Wu , Yifan Yang , Junqiang Xia , Zhonghou Xu , Dong Shao , Wentao Xu

Study region

The Waiho River is a rapidly aggrading, levee-confined, glacier-fed braided river on the West Coast of New Zealand, crossing a steep proglacial alluvial fan where stopbanks protect the State Highway 6 lifeline corridor and adjacent community.

Study focus

This study quantifies how riverbed aggradation alters flood behaviour and levee performance and evaluates alternative levee strategies for the Waiho River. Using multi-temporal topographies (2016–2023), terrain-change analysis, and spatially distributed floodplain roughness derived from remote sensing, we apply a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to simulate (1) breach sensitivity on both riverbanks under varying bed elevations and (2) levee reconfiguration options from partial to complete removal of the southern levee system.

New hydrological insights for the region

Results show that incremental levee heightening yields only short-term benefits; under continued aggradation, it elevates water levels against protected margins and exacerbates breach consequences. Breach behaviour is strongly conditioned by riverbed elevation, indicating that aggradation control and freeboard management must be planned jointly. Partial south-levee removal provides limited relief, whereas complete removal (or an equivalent setback) substantially lowers hydraulic loading on the opposite bank and redistributes flow and shear across the southern floodplain, promoting wider conveyance and sediment dispersion consistent with a reconnected system. Overall, the findings support an adaptive pathway prioritising restored floodplain connectivity, complemented by targeted reinforcements and risk-informed operations near critical assets (e.g., lifeline highway infrastructures).

怀霍河是新西兰西海岸一条快速淤积的、受堤坝限制的、由冰川滋养的辫状河，它穿过陡峭的前冰川冲积扇，在那里，拦河堤保护着6号国道的生命线走廊和邻近的社区。本研究量化了河床淤积如何改变洪水行为和堤防性能，并评估了怀荷河的备选堤防策略。利用多时相地形（2016-2023年）、地形变化分析和遥感获得的河漫滩空间分布粗糙度，我们应用二维水动力模型来模拟(1)不同河床高程下两河两岸的决口敏感性；(2)从部分到完全拆除南岸堤防系统的堤防重构方案。结果表明，增加堤防加高只会产生短期效益；在持续恶化的情况下，它会抬高水位，使其超过受保护的边缘，并加剧决口的后果。决口行为在很大程度上受河床高程的制约，这表明控制淤积和干舷管理必须共同规划。部分南岸堤防的拆除提供了有限的缓解，而完全拆除（或等效的后退）则大大降低了对岸的水力负荷，并重新分配了南部洪泛区的水流和剪切，促进了更广泛的输送和沉积物分散，与重新连接的系统相一致。总体而言，研究结果支持一种适应性路径，优先考虑恢复洪泛平原的连通性，辅以有针对性的增援和关键资产（如生命线公路基础设施）附近的风险知情操作。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding the co-occurrence of heavy metals and nutrients in urban stormwater runoff in Johannesburg City: Implications for water quality management 了解约翰内斯堡城市雨水径流中重金属和营养物质的共存：对水质管理的影响

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103064

Ndivhuwo Ramovha , Martha Chadyiwa , Meta Jonathan Mvita , Freeman Ntuli , Thandiwe Nastassia Sithole

Study region

Johannesburg, South Africa, is a rapidly urbanising metropolis where mixed residential, commercial, and industrial land uses generate highly variable stormwater runoff that threatens downstream water quality. This study monitored multiple storm events across contrasting urban catchments to characterise pollutant dynamics under real-world hydrological conditions.

Study focus

The research quantified the co-occurrence of heavy metals (Cu, Fe, Zn) and nutrients (N, P) in stormwater using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) and ion chromatography. Artificial neural network (ANN) models were then applied to predict pollutant concentrations under different land-use and seasonal scenarios. The models performed strongly (R² > 0.85) for key pollutants, showing that 76 % of samples exceeded local water quality guidelines for at least one metal. Peak zinc and nitrogen loads were linked to industrial runoff.

New hydrological insight

The findings demonstrate that high-density urban areas function as hotspots for simultaneous heavy metal and nutrient pollution, intensifying risks of eutrophication and ecological degradation in receiving waters. By linking ANN-based pollutant prediction with specific land-use classes, the study presents the first transferable framework for integrated stormwater quality management in Johannesburg and similar African megacities, supporting more spatially explicit regulation and prioritisation of pollution control measures.

研究区域南非约翰内斯堡是一个快速城市化的大都市，住宅、商业和工业用地混合使用产生高度变化的雨水径流，威胁下游水质。本研究监测了不同城市集水区的多次风暴事件，以表征真实水文条件下的污染物动态。本研究采用电感耦合等离子体质谱（ICP-MS）和离子色谱法定量分析了暴雨水体中重金属（Cu、Fe、Zn）和营养物质（N、P）的共生态。应用人工神经网络（ANN）模型对不同土地利用和季节情景下的污染物浓度进行预测。模型对主要污染物的表现很好（R²> 0.85），表明76% %的样本至少有一种金属超过了当地的水质标准。锌和氮负荷峰值与工业径流有关。研究结果表明，高密度城市地区是重金属和营养物质同时污染的热点地区，加剧了接收水域富营养化和生态退化的风险。通过将基于人工神经网络的污染物预测与特定的土地利用类别联系起来，该研究提出了约翰内斯堡和类似非洲大城市综合雨水质量管理的第一个可转移框架，支持更明确的空间监管和污染控制措施的优先级。

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引用次数: 0

Hydrological performance of bioretention systems under constrained subsoil: A study based on three bioretention prototypes in Paris, France 约束底土条件下生物滞留系统的水文性能：基于法国巴黎三个生物滞留原型的研究

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103124

Tinghao Huang , Jérémie Sage , Emmanuel Berthier , Didier Técher , Philippe Dubois , Marie-Christine Gromaire

Study region

Paris Region, France

Study focus

Nature-based solutions, such as bioretention systems, are increasingly implemented for urban runoff management. This study combined continuous monitoring with field investigations of three bioretention prototypes in Paris Region to assess their hydrological performance under constrained subsoil conditions (limited or prohibited exfiltration), identify dominant hydrologic processes and explore ways to enhance them. The prototypes consisted of: 1) An unlined system with a hydraulic loading ratio (HLR) of 13 over clay subsoil, to assess how internal water storage (IWS) may enhance exfiltration; 2) Two lined systems, designed to evaluate whether combining a low HLR of 4, fine-textured substrate, and IWS can enhance evapotranspiration (ET) as the main volume reduction mechanism.

New hydrologic insights

The three systems achieved notable runoff reduction throughout the monitoring period, despite limited or null exfiltration. For the unlined system, volume reduction was largely driven by the thickness of the IWS, with sufficiently thick IWS enabling substantial exfiltration. For lined systems, it was controlled by ET, which appeared twice as high during dry periods. A capillary barrier between transition and drainage layers enhanced soil water retention in the unlined system, yet its ET remained lower than potential ET. Silt loam substrate in lined systems supported vegetation but led to cracking issues which were mitigated by IWS. Additionally, potential water intrusion from perched groundwater lenses was identified.

研究地区：法国巴黎地区研究重点：基于自然的解决方案，如生物滞留系统，越来越多地用于城市径流管理。本研究将连续监测与实地调查相结合，在巴黎地区对三种生物滞留原型进行了评估，以评估其在受限底土条件下（限制或禁止渗漏）的水文性能，确定优势水文过程并探索增强它们的方法。原型包括：1)粘土地基上的水力加载比（HLR）为13的无衬里系统，以评估内部蓄水（IWS）如何增强渗漏；2)两个内衬系统，旨在评估低HLR(4)、细质地底物与IWS相结合是否能增强蒸散发（ET）作为主要减容机制。在整个监测期间，尽管渗漏有限或没有渗漏，但这三个系统都取得了显著的径流量减少。对于未衬套的系统，体积的减少主要是由IWS的厚度驱动的，足够厚的IWS可以实现大量的渗漏。对于有衬里的系统，它是由ET控制的，在干旱时期，ET出现了两倍的高。过渡层和排水层之间的毛细管屏障增强了无衬里系统中的土壤保水能力，但其ET仍低于潜在ET。衬里系统中的粉壤土基质支持植被，但导致裂缝问题，IWS缓解了这一问题。此外，还确定了来自悬空地下水透镜体的潜在水入侵。

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引用次数: 0

Season-land-use heterogeneity Bayesian Three-Cornered Hat (SLH-BTCH) for precipitation fusion in ungauged and sparsely gauged regions 降水融合的季节-土地利用异质性贝叶斯三角帽(SLH-BTCH

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103110

Qiangwei Yu , Xiaohua Dong , Zengchuan Dong , Yaoming Ma , Xiang Cheng , Xue'er Hu , Chengqi Gong , Bob Su , Wenzhuo Wang

Study region

The source region of the Yangtze River, a core part of the “Asian Water Tower,” has sparse gauges, cold high elevation, and complex relief. Together with strong climatic variability, these factors cause large precipitation-estimation errors that undermine hydrological modeling and meteorological assessments.

Study focus

We introduce the Season–Land-Use Heterogeneity Bayesian Three-Cornered Hat (SLH-BTCH), an enhancement of BTCH. Data are grouped by season–land-use strata; within each group we estimate error covariance and then fuse products by weighted averaging, using only multi-source precipitation fields—no in-situ priors. Using CHIRPS, CMFD, TPHiPr, and CHM-PRE, we assess daily performance of the originals, BTCH, and SLH-BTCH against ground observations, and include an equal-weight average (EWA) baseline to gauge the benefit of grouped error modeling.

New hydrological insights for the region

Compared with the original products, BTCH and equal-weight averaging, SLH-BTCH yields event timing and seasonal precipitation more consistent with gauges while reducing storm-intensity bias and day-to-day noise across contrasting land-surface types. Around key headwater stations (Tuotuohe, Wudaoliang, Zhiduo) this sharpens damaging-storm signals and reduces false alarms, providing tighter basin water-balance closure and more reliable flood simulation, routing and dry-season water-availability estimates in ungauged, data-sparse sectors of the Tibetan Plateau.

研究区域长江源区是“亚洲水塔”的核心部分，水位稀疏，海拔寒冷，地形复杂。再加上强烈的气候变率，这些因素造成了很大的降水估计误差，从而破坏了水文模拟和气象评估。研究重点介绍了季节-土地利用异质性贝叶斯三角帽（SLH-BTCH），这是对BTCH的改进。数据按季节土地利用分层分组；在每个组中，我们估计误差协方差，然后通过加权平均融合产物，仅使用多源降水场-没有原位先验。使用CHIRPS、CMFD、TPHiPr和CHM-PRE，我们根据地面观测评估了原始、BTCH和SLH-BTCH的日常性能，并包括等权重平均（EWA）基线来衡量分组误差建模的好处。与原始产品、BTCH和等权平均相比，SLH-BTCH产生的事件时间和季节性降水与测量更加一致，同时减少了不同陆地表面类型的风暴强度偏差和日常噪音。在关键的水源站（沱沱河、五道梁、知多）周围，这一技术使破坏性风暴信号更加清晰，减少了误报，为青藏高原未测量、数据稀疏的地区提供了更严格的流域水平衡封闭和更可靠的洪水模拟、路线和旱季可用水量估算。

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引用次数: 0

Flood susceptibility mapping in the Gumara watershed Upper Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia: AHP and Sentinel-1 SAR analysis 埃塞俄比亚上青尼罗河流域古马拉流域洪水易感性制图：AHP和Sentinel-1 SAR分析

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103130

Temesgen T. Mihret , Fasikaw F. Cherie , Fasikaw A. Zemale

Study Region

The Gumara Watershed in Ethiopia’s Upper Blue Nile Basin is highly prone to flooding that damages crops, homes, and infrastructure. Steep slopes, intense seasonal, and land use changes increase flood risk.

Study Focus

This study assessed flood susceptibility using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and compared results with flood extent mapped from Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery. Ten factors were used: Drainage Density (DD), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Distance to River (DR), Elevation, Slope, Hillshade, Aspect, Rainfall, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC). Validation was performed using 74 ground truth flood points collected from field surveys and local records to evaluate the agreement between the AHP susceptibility map and the SAR-derived flood map.

New Hydrological Insights for the Region

Results showed that 78 % of the watershed lies within Moderate to Very High susceptibility zones according to AHP, while SAR indicated that 73 % of the area was flooded. Rainfall, Elevation, and Slope were the most influential factors, followed by DD, LULC, and DR, while Aspect and Hillshade had minor effects. ROC analysis showed moderate accuracy for AHP (AUC = 0.79) and higher accuracy for SAR (AUC = 0.91). The comparison indicates that AHP identifies likely flood-prone areas, while SAR maps actual flood extent. These findings support flood risk management, early warning systems, and watershed planning in data-scarce regions.

研究区域：埃塞俄比亚上青尼罗河流域的古马拉流域极易发生洪水，洪水会破坏庄稼、房屋和基础设施。陡峭的山坡、强烈的季节性和土地利用变化增加了洪水的风险。本研究使用层次分析法（AHP）评估了洪水敏感性，并将结果与Sentinel-1合成孔径雷达（SAR）图像绘制的洪水范围进行了比较。采用10个因子：排水密度（DD）、地形湿度指数（TWI）、距河距离（DR）、高程、坡度、遮荫、坡向、降雨量、归一化植被指数（NDVI）和土地利用/土地覆盖（LULC）。利用从实地调查和当地记录收集的74个地面真实洪水点进行验证，以评估AHP敏感性图与sar衍生洪水图之间的一致性。结果表明，根据AHP， 78 %的流域处于中度至极高易感区，而SAR显示73 %的流域被淹没。降雨、高程和坡度是影响最大的因子，其次是DD、LULC和DR，而坡向和Hillshade的影响较小。ROC分析显示AHP准确度中等（AUC = 0.79）， SAR准确度较高（AUC = 0.91）。比较表明，AHP识别可能发生洪水的地区，而SAR绘制实际洪水范围。这些发现为数据匮乏地区的洪水风险管理、早期预警系统和流域规划提供了支持。

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引用次数: 0

Seasonal groundwater–salinity dynamics and climate-driven saltwater intrusion in Coastal South Florida 南佛罗里达沿海地区季节性地下水-盐度动态和气候驱动的盐水入侵

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103117

Mohana Debnath, Nasrin Alamdari

Study region

Miami-Dade County, Florida.

Study focus

Coastal aquifers in South Florida face growing exposure to saltwater intrusion (SWI) driven by sea-level rise, climate variability, and groundwater withdrawal. This study presents a high-resolution, seasonally focused analysis of groundwater–salinity interactions under two climate scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5). Using statistically downscaled CMIP6 projections, a MODFLOW-based groundwater model, and explainable AI methods, we evaluate how precipitation patterns, groundwater levels, and SWI evolve over time and vary across three aquifer layers.

New hydrologic insights

Results show nonlinear and delayed seasonal feedbacks across aquifer depths. In the shallow layer, SWI increased by 10.6 % during fall under SSP5–8.5, compared with a 7.1 % increase during summer under SSP2–4.5, highlighting scenario-dependent seasonal shifts in intrusion peaks. Although wet-season precipitation anomalies exceeded 350 %, intense rainfall reduced infiltration efficiency and limited recharge, contributing to greater SWI penetration into deeper zones. Granger causality analysis indicated more than a 250 % increase in feedback strength between consecutive seasons under SSP5–8.5, reflecting stronger temporal coupling. The Random Forest model reached 77 % accuracy and 94 % recall for high-salinity conditions, and SHAP analysis identified hydraulic gradient, coastal distance, and structural proximity as the most influential predictors. Spatial mapping showed that the deepest layer experienced the widest inland salinization, occurring alongside groundwater drawdown. A structural change around 2020 marked accelerated SWI advancement, with annual expansion rates in shallow aquifers exceeding 50 %. Overall, this integrated framework improves understanding of seasonal SWI patterns and provides information to support adaptive groundwater management in climate-stressed coastal regions.

研究区域：佛罗里达州迈阿密-戴德县。在海平面上升、气候变化和地下水抽取的驱动下，南佛罗里达州的沿海含水层面临越来越多的盐水入侵（SWI）。本研究提出了两种气候情景（SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5）下地下水-盐度相互作用的高分辨率季节性分析。利用统计上缩小的CMIP6预测、基于modflow的地下水模型和可解释的人工智能方法，我们评估了降水模式、地下水水位和SWI如何随时间演变，以及在三个含水层之间的变化。新的水文见解结果显示了跨含水层深度的非线性和延迟季节性反馈。在SSP5-8.5下，浅层SWI在秋季增加了10.6 %，而在SSP2-4.5下，夏季增加了7.1 %，突出了入侵峰值的情景依赖的季节变化。尽管雨季降水异常超过350 %，但强降雨降低了入渗效率，限制了补给，导致SWI向较深层渗透。格兰杰因果分析表明，在SSP5-8.5条件下，连续季节间反馈强度增加了250 %以上，反映出较强的时间耦合。随机森林模型在高盐度条件下达到77 %的准确率和94 %的召回率，而SHAP分析确定水力梯度、海岸距离和结构接近度是最具影响力的预测因素。空间制图显示，最深层经历了最广泛的内陆盐渍化，与地下水下降同时发生。2020年左右的结构变化标志着SWI的加速发展，浅层含水层的年扩张率超过50% %。总体而言，这一综合框架提高了对季节性SWI模式的理解，并为支持气候压力沿海地区的适应性地下水管理提供了信息。

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引用次数: 0

Stable isotope signatures of precipitation and implications for groundwater recharge on Jeju volcanic island, South Korea 济州岛火山岛降水稳定同位素特征及其地下水补给意义

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103141

Min-Chul Kim , Woo-Jin Shin , Eun-Hee Koh , Chang-Seong Koh , Go-Eun Kim , Kwang-Sik Lee

Study region

Jeju Island, South Korea, is a volcanic island where the population depends entirely on groundwater for freshwater supply, and the island exhibits unique hydrogeological characteristics.

Study focus

This study examines groundwater recharge processes by analyzing the stable isotopes of oxygen (δ¹⁸O) and hydrogen (δ²H) in monthly precipitation and groundwater.

New hydrological insights for the region

Precipitation isotopes showed clear seasonal variability, characterized by a strong summer monsoon effect. Northern-slope precipitation was slightly more depleted in ¹⁸O and has lower d-excess values compared to other slopes. Groundwater in this area exhibited similarly depleted isotopic signatures, suggesting that high-elevation recharge moves downgradient along preferential flow pathways toward coastal areas. Mixing analysis indicates that high-elevation summer rainfall is the dominant source of groundwater recharge. These findings significantly enhance the understanding of the linkages between precipitation patterns and groundwater recharge dynamics on the island.

研究区域韩国济州岛是一个火山岛，人口完全依赖地下水供应淡水，岛上具有独特的水文地质特征。本研究通过分析月降水和地下水中氧（δ¹⁸O）和氢（δ²H）的稳定同位素，探讨地下水补给过程。降水同位素显示出明显的季节变化，其特征是强烈的夏季风效应。18O年北坡降水耗竭程度略高，d-excess值低于其他坡。该地区的地下水表现出类似的枯竭同位素特征，表明高海拔补给沿着优先流向沿海地区的流动路径向下梯度移动。混合分析表明，夏季高海拔降水是地下水补给的主要来源。这些发现大大加强了对岛上降水模式与地下水补给动态之间联系的认识。

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引用次数: 0

Estimating probable maximum precipitation for the continental United States 估计美国大陆可能的最大降水量

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103122

Mochi Liao, Ana P. Barros

Study region

The entire continental United States (CONUS).

Study focus

The objective of this manuscript is to estimate Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) using multifractal analysis for CONUS and to evaluate the impact of recent extreme events on PMP estimation and associated return periods using high-resolution precipitation datasets, including model reanalysis ERA5L at 9 km resolution, and multi-sensor gauge-corrected reanalysis AORC at 4 km resolution.

New hydrological insights for the region

The results show a strong spatial alignment between extreme precipitation, multifractal parameters, topography, and weather regimes. There is a large magnitude gap in estimated PMP between model-based and multi-sensor gauge-corrected precipitation products. The 24-hour PMP with return periods of one thousand and one million years are approximately 400 mm and 2000 mm, respectively, when using ERA5L, and 800 mm and 6000 mm when using AORC. Precipitation accumulations from recent extreme events are in keeping with PMP estimates derived from multifractal analysis using AORC, with a return period of 10³.

研究区域整个美国大陆（CONUS）。本文的目的是利用CONUS的多重分形分析估计可能最大降水（PMP），并利用高分辨率降水数据集评估最近极端事件对PMP估计和相关回归期的影响，包括9 km分辨率的模型再分析ERA5L和4 km分辨率的多传感器测量校正再分析AORC。研究结果表明，极端降水、多重分形参数、地形和天气状况之间存在强烈的空间一致性。在基于模式的估计PMP和多传感器计校正的降水产品之间存在很大的数量级差距。ERA5L的24小时PMP分别约为400 mm和2000 mm， orc的24小时PMP分别约为800 mm和6000 mm。最近极端事件的降水积累与利用orc进行多重分形分析得出的PMP估计一致，回归期为103。

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引用次数: 0

Analysis of hydrological drought and TWS-related drivers in Yunnan Province Using GNSS-derived TWS, multi-source hydrological data and the XGBoost model 基于gnss衍生TWS、多源水文数据和XGBoost模型的云南省水文干旱及TWS相关驱动因素分析

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103120

Yong Su , Zhanjie Qu , Yakun Pu , Qiong Li , Xi Zhang , Ji Feng

Study region

Yunnan Province.

Study focus

Using vertical displacement data from 43 GNSS stations across Yunnan Province, this study first inverted terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) for 2011–2019, then developed the novel GNSS Combined Climatologic Deviation Index (GNSS-CCDI) through integration with precipitation observations, ultimately employing XGBoost modeling to quantify key driving factors.

New hydrological insights for the region

The retrieved TWSA agrees well with GRACE and GLDAS data, yet the latter two underestimate TWSA changes. The GNSS-CCDI is consistent with other drought indices. Five drought events occurred from 2011 to 2019, with the severest starting in July 2011 for 9 months. Main factors influencing TWSA vary across regions, with soil moisture, lake, and snow having the greatest impact in Yunnan.

研究区域：云南省。本研究利用云南省43个GNSS站点的垂直位移数据，首先反演了2011-2019年的陆地蓄水异常（TWSA），然后结合降水观测建立了新的GNSS联合气候偏差指数（GNSS- ccdi），最终利用XGBoost模型量化关键驱动因素。检索到的TWSA与GRACE和GLDAS数据吻合良好，但后两者低估了TWSA的变化。GNSS-CCDI与其他干旱指数基本一致。2011 - 2019年共发生5次干旱事件，最严重的一次发生在2011年7月，持续了9个月。影响TWSA的主要因素在不同地区存在差异，其中对云南的影响最大的是土壤水分、湖泊和积雪。

引用次数: 0

Interpretable deep learning for sewer network water level forecasting in a Northern Chinese City: Implications for enhancing real-time assessment of system operational conditions 中国北方城市污水管网水位预测的可解释深度学习：对增强系统运行条件实时评估的启示

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103116

Zhiwen Yi , Wenchao Sun , Haozheng Wang , Guanyu Han , Jinqiang Wang

Study region

Changchun City in North China.

Study focus

Water level prediction within sewer networks ‌plays a crucial role in‌ urban water system real-time control. With‌ advanced automated monitoring technologies, the generation of vast amounts of observational data ‌makes it possible‌ to predict water levels using deep learning models. However, a knowledge gap remains regarding how input feature dimensionality and temporal sequence length influence performances of such models. To address this issue, we developed an ‌explainable deep learning framework for predicting the influent water level at the terminal wastewater treatment plant of a typical sewer system by integrating Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for interpretable analysis.

New hydrological insights

Utilizing monitored precipitation data and upstream pipeline water level time-series data as input yields satisfactory one-step-ahead prediction performance. Contrary to expectations, incorporating additional upstream sensors did not improve model accuracy. Model performance improved progressively with longer input sequences, reaching optimal performance at 48-time steps before deteriorating with further temporal extension. SHAP analysis revealed that manual control operations exerted stronger influence on model outputs than the spatial proximity of monitoring sites to prediction points. Furthermore, sensor data anomalies and deficiencies in monitoring network configurations could be identified, confirming its utility for diagnosing behavioral patterns in modeled sewer network. These findings provided new hydrological insights and practical guidance for sewer system real-time control.

研究区域为华北长春市。研究重点污水管网水位预测在城市供水系统实时控制中起着至关重要的作用。借助先进的自动化监测技术，大量观测数据的生成使得使用深度学习模型预测水位成为可能。然而，关于输入特征维度和时间序列长度如何影响这些模型的性能，知识差距仍然存在。为了解决这个问题，我们开发了一个可解释的深度学习框架，通过将长短期记忆（LSTM）与SHapley加性解释（SHAP）相结合进行可解释分析，用于预测典型下水道系统终端污水处理厂的进水水位。利用监测降水数据和上游管道水位时间序列数据作为输入，可获得令人满意的一步超前预测性能。与预期相反，加入额外的上游传感器并没有提高模型的准确性。随着输入序列的增加，模型的性能逐渐提高，在48个时间步长时达到最优，然后随着时间的进一步扩展而退化。SHAP分析显示，人工控制操作对模型输出的影响大于监测点与预测点的空间接近程度。此外，可以识别传感器数据异常和监测网络配置的缺陷，确认其在诊断模型下水道网络行为模式方面的实用性。这些发现为下水道系统的实时控制提供了新的水文见解和实用指导。

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