Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies最新文献_第9页

Fifty years marshland changes in a large floodplain lake: Natural driving or human impact? 一个大型洪泛平原湖五十年来的沼泽地变化：自然驱动还是人为影响？

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101966

Zhao Lu , Xijun Lai , Min Gan , Yinghao Zhang

Study region: Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater floodplain lake in China. Study focus: Marshlands in a floodplain, as the typical natural wetland offering vital habitats for various organisms, are sensitive to environmental changes. The spatiotemporal changes of marshlands were investigated and their driving forces from both natural factors and human activities were discussed. The remote sensing image data from 1973 to 2022 was adopted to explore the long-term changes of marshlands exposed in dry season. New hydrological insights for the region: Over the past fifty years, the total area of marshlands in Poyang Lake is around 2540–2718 km² and has undergone substantial changes. It follows the bell-shaped curve pattern with continuous rise since 1970s and reach the maximum at the end of 20 century and then fluctuating decline. Different evolutionary patterns were identified in different lake regions owing to the combination of human activities and natural processes. The expanding marshlands mainly concentrate in the central lake, while the significant losses of marshlands are observed in the northern lake（By sand mining and dyke constructions）. In the southern lake, sediment input from inflow rivers deposited naturally in the river mouth elevated the lake bed and lead to delta expansion（A 3.1 km expansion has been observed）. The complex geomorphological processes and fishery activities also create the dish-shaped internal sub-lakes in marshlands.

研究区域：鄱阳湖：中国最大的淡水洪泛平原湖泊。研究重点：洪泛区沼泽地是典型的天然湿地，是各种生物的重要栖息地，对环境变化十分敏感。本研究对沼泽地的时空变化进行了研究，并探讨了自然因素和人类活动对沼泽地变化的影响。采用 1973 年至 2022 年的遥感图像数据，探讨了旱季沼泽地的长期变化。对该地区水文的新认识：近五十年来，鄱阳湖沼泽地总面积约为 2540-2718 平方公里，发生了巨大变化。鄱阳湖沼泽地面积呈钟形曲线变化，自 20 世纪 70 年代以来持续上升，20 世纪末达到最大值，随后波动下降。在人类活动和自然过程的共同作用下，不同湖区呈现出不同的演变模式。沼泽地的扩大主要集中在中部湖区，而沼泽地的显著减少则出现在北部湖区（由于采砂和堤坝建设）。在南部湖泊，流入河流的泥沙在河口自然沉积，抬高了湖床，导致三角洲扩大（已观察到扩大了 3.1 公里）。复杂的地貌过程和渔业活动也在沼泽地中形成了碟形的内部子湖。

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引用次数: 0

Prediction of regional water resources carrying capacity based on stochastic simulation: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration 基于随机模拟的区域水资源承载能力预测：京津冀城市群案例研究

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101976

Wentao Xu , Junliang Jin , Jianyun Zhang , Shanshui Yuan , Ming Tang , Yanli Liu , Tiesheng Guan

Study region

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in China

Study focus

The prediction of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) can provide an effective reference for the rational allocation and efficient utilization of water resources. Traditional prediction methods obtained a definite WRCC value but fail to reflect the uncertainty of WRCC changes and limit reference for the optimal allocation of water resources. To ensure the accuracy, availability and comprehensiveness of prediction, this paper adopts the improved principal component analysis (PCA) to screen indicators, and predicts the WRCC through the coupled model of Monte Carlo and Grey Wolf Optimization-Support Vector Machine(GWO-SVM), addressing single result issues and computational complexity. At the same time, various regulation schemes for sensitive indicators are designed to provide an effective guidance for the optimal allocation and sustainable use of water resources.

New hydrological insights for the region

In 2025, the probability of WRCC in Tianjin, Handan, Xingtai, Hengshui, Cangzhou, Langfang to maintain grade III is more than 80 %, and that in Beijing, Baoding, Tangshan, Qinhuangdao, Zhangjiakou, Chengde to reach grade IV is more than 50 %. The sensitivity analysis shows that the sensitive indicators mainly focus on water supply and consumption, water use efficiency and pollutant gas emissions. The WRCC can be further improved under different schemes. The results can provide effective guidance for the optimal allocation of water resources and maintain sustainable economic and social development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.

研究区域中国京津冀城市群研究重点水资源承载能力（WRCC）预测可为水资源的合理配置和高效利用提供有效参考。传统的水资源承载力预测方法得到了确定的水资源承载力值，但无法反映水资源承载力变化的不确定性，限制了水资源优化配置的参考。为保证预测的准确性、可用性和全面性，本文采用改进的主成分分析法（PCA）筛选指标，并通过蒙特卡洛和灰狼优化-支持向量机（GWO-SVM）耦合模型对 WRCC 进行预测，解决了预测结果单一和计算复杂的问题。2025 年，天津、邯郸、邢台、衡水、沧州、廊坊的 WRCC 维持在 III 级的概率大于 80%，北京、保定、唐山、秦皇岛、张家口、承德达到 IV 级的概率大于 50%。敏感性分析表明，敏感指标主要集中在供水与耗水、用水效率和污染物气体排放方面。在不同方案下，WRCC 可进一步提高。研究结果可为京津冀城市群水资源优化配置、保持经济社会可持续发展提供有效指导。

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引用次数: 0

Characterization of recharge sources of the Miocene Fluvial Moghra aquifer in the North Western Desert of Egypt 埃及西北沙漠中新世冲积莫格拉含水层补给源的特征

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101980

Doaa Hegazy , Abotalib Z. Abotalib , Mohamed Sultan , Sayed M. Arafat , Mohamed El-Bastawesy , Adel Yehia , Karim Abdelmalik

Study region

The Miocene Fluvial Moghra Aquifer in the North Western Desert of Egypt

Study focus

The study integrates stable isotope analyses with aeromagnetic and hydrogeological datasets to accomplish the following: (1) define the primary source(s) of recharge to the Moghra aquifer, (2) assess aquifer connectivity with the Nile River aquifer, and (3) investigate the vertical connectivity of the Moghra aquifer with the underlying Nubian Aquifer System (NAS) through subvertical faults.

New hydrological insights for the region

The findings reveal (1) significant heterogeneity in groundwater isotopic compositions (Group A: δ¹⁸O: 1.1–13.8 ‰; δD: 4.6–73.5 ‰, B: δ¹⁸O:−0.99 to 0.85; δD: −7.58 to 4.38 ‰; and C: δ¹⁸O:−1.1 to −3.4; δD: − 6.3 to −18.2 ‰) indicative of variability in recharge sources. (2) Groundwater compositions west (up to 30 km) of the Nile River (Group A) resemble enriched modern Nile waters following the Aswan High Dam (AHD) construction that give way further west to relatively depleted groundwater (Group B) resembling historical pre-AHD Nile water compositions. (3) Further west from Group B depleted Group C samples occur along intersections of multiple fault systems (NW and NE-oriented faults) interpreted as mixtures of rising highly-depleted paleo Nubian Aquifer System (NAS) waters and pre-AHD Nile waters. (4) The advocated structural control is reported in similar settings in Egypt, suggesting that intersections of multiple fault systems provide regional connections between deep and shallow aquifers in northeast Africa, recharge overlying shallow aquifers, and should be considered in groundwater management scenarios.

研究区域埃及西北部沙漠中新世冲积莫格拉含水层研究重点这项研究将稳定同位素分析与航空磁学和水文地质数据集相结合，以完成以下工作：(1) 确定莫格拉含水层的主要补给来源，(2) 评估含水层与尼罗河含水层的连通性，(3) 通过俯冲断层研究莫格拉含水层与下层努比亚含水层系统 (NAS) 的垂直连通性。研究结果显示：(1) 地下水同位素组成存在明显的异质性（A 组：δ18O：1.1-13.8‰；δD：4.6-73.5‰，B 组：δ18O：-0.99-0.85；δD：-7.58-4.38‰）：-7.58至4.38‰；C：δ18O：-1.1至-3.4；δD：- 6.3至-18.2‰），表明补给源的变化。(2) 尼罗河以西（最多 30 公里）的地下水成分（A 组）类似于阿斯旺高坝（AHD）建成后富集的现代尼罗河水，再往西则是相对枯竭的地下水（B 组），类似于阿斯旺高坝建成前尼罗河水的历史成分。(3) 从 B 组再往西，沿多个断层系统（西北向和东北向断层）交汇处出现了贫化的 C 组样本，被解释为上升的高度贫化的古努比亚含水层系统（NAS）水和阿斯旺高坝之前的尼罗河水的混合物。(4) 在埃及的类似环境中也出现了所主张的结构控制，这表明多个断层系统的交汇处提供了非洲东北部深层和浅层含水层之间的区域联系，补给了上覆的浅层含水层，并应在地下水管理方案中加以考虑。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating potential evapotranspiration methods in a rapidly warming Arctic region, SW Spitsbergen (1983–2023) 评估迅速变暖的北极地区斯匹次卑尔根西南部的潜在蒸散方法（1983-2023 年）

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101979

Nicole Hanselmann, Marzena Osuch, Tomasz Wawrzyniak, Abhishek Bamby Alphonse

Study regions

Hornsund, SW Spitsbergen, Svalbard – area representing atlantic sector of High Arctic

Study focus

Svalbard's warming climate significantly alters its hydrological conditions. Evapotranspiration, a crucial hydrological component, is understudied in this High Arctic environment. In this study, daily potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates for the period 1983–2023 were calculated using meteorological data from the Polish Polar Station Hornsund (SW Spitsbergen). 11 different PET methods were applied, those include radiation-based, temperature-based, radiation-temperature-based, and combined methods.

New hydrological insights for the region

The results show a large spread in the annual sum of PET ranging from ∼20 mm/y (Kharrufa) through ∼300 mm/y (Penman-Monteith) up to ∼450 mm/y (Abtew). Trends analysis shows different outcomes depending on the length of the averaging period. Using a daily timescale, PET methods tend to show more similar patterns of changes than using monthly timescales. The changes in PET estimates differ between the models, hence classifying PET methods should consider their sensitivity to meteorological changes. PET estimates were compared with pan measurements at a daily time scale in 2022–2023. The Penman method produced the best results in relation to pan measurements. In other cases, despite a relatively high linear correlation, calibration to local conditions is needed to scale the outcomes and limit biases. This study improves understanding of how PET models perform in the rapidly changing High Arctic climate.

研究地区霍恩松、斯匹次卑尔根西南部、斯瓦尔巴--代表北极高纬度地区大西洋部分的地区研究重点斯瓦尔巴气候变暖极大地改变了其水文条件。蒸发蒸腾作用是水文的重要组成部分，但对这一北极高纬度环境的研究却很不够。本研究利用波兰霍恩松极地站（斯匹次卑尔根西南部）的气象数据，计算了 1983-2023 年期间的日潜在蒸散量 (PET) 估计值。结果显示，该地区的年潜在蒸散量总和相差很大，从 20 毫米/年（卡鲁法）到 300 毫米/年（彭曼-蒙蒂斯）再到 450 毫米/年（阿布图）。趋势分析显示，平均期的长短不同，结果也不同。使用日时间尺度，PET 方法往往比使用月时间尺度显示出更相似的变化模式。不同模型的 PET 估计值的变化各不相同，因此在对 PET 方法进行分类时应考虑其对气象变化的敏感性。2022-2023 年，PET 估计值与每日时间尺度的平移测量值进行了比较。彭曼方法得出的结果与泛区测量结果相比最好。在其他情况下，尽管线性相关性相对较高，但仍需要根据当地条件进行校准，以扩展结果并限制偏差。这项研究加深了人们对 PET 模型在瞬息万变的北极高纬度气候中的表现的理解。

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引用次数: 0

Optimization framework for eco-hydrological connectivity schemes based on graph theory and waterfront accessibility 基于图论和滨水可达性的生态水文连通方案优化框架

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101975

Yuping Han , Yao Xu , Runxiang Cao , Zhongpei Liu

Study Region

Zhengzhou section of the Jialu River.

Study Focus

In this study, the Zhengzhou section of the Jialu River was chosen to construct a watershed river network graph model based on graph theory, and this model could describe water volume distribution at diversion nodes and water balance relationships, which aimed to maximize the ecological landscape area. Considering residential aggregation along riverbanks, a waterfront accessibility matrix was used to derive an optimized water system connectivity scheme based on flow allocation at diversion nodes.

New Hydrological Insights for the Region

In the optimized scheme, flow distribution from 5 diversion nodes to downstream river sections ranged from 0.2 to 0.8, resulting in significant changes in the landscape area of 20 river segments. The ecological landscape area under the optimal scenario was 31.06 km², which was 0.03 km² more than the worst-case scenario. The water system connectivity allocation remained consistent before and after considering waterfront accessibility, and the optimal weighted landscape area was 12.69 km² with waterfront accessibility in mind. Considering the accessibility of waterfront areas, the center of gravity of the water system connectivity scheme shad undergone a significant change before and after. The research results could provide theoretical support for the construction of regional ecological civilization.

研究区域贾鲁河郑州段.研究重点本研究选择贾鲁河郑州段，基于图论构建流域河网图模型，该模型能够描述引水节点的水量分配和水量平衡关系，旨在最大化生态景观面积。在优化方案中，从 5 个引水节点到下游河段的流量分布在 0.2 到 0.8 之间，使 20 个河段的景观面积发生了显著变化。优化方案下的生态景观面积为 31.06 平方公里，比最差方案多 0.03 平方公里。水系连通性分配在考虑滨水可达性前后保持一致，考虑滨水可达性后的最优加权景观面积为 12.69 平方公里。考虑到滨水区的可达性，水系连通方案的重心前后发生了显著变化。研究成果可为区域生态文明建设提供理论支撑。

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引用次数: 0

Egypt's water future: AI predicts evapotranspiration shifts across climate zones 埃及水资源的未来：人工智能预测各气候带的蒸散量变化

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101968

Ali Mokhtar , Mohammed Magdy Hamed , Hongming He , Ali Salem , Zeinab M. Hendy

Study Region

Egypt is a country located in northeastern Africa.

Study Focus

The research evaluated the random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) as single models and the models' hybrid to predict the ETo for the baseline and future (2015–2099) period from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–26, SSP2–45 and SSP5–85) based on 18 GCMs models.

New Hydrological Insights for the Region

The hybrid model has performed better than single models; compared RF and XGB to RF-XGB, the RMSE values were decreased in all zones esepically in zone 3 by 16.2 %, these results indicate that the highest performances of all models are observed in the middle and south Egypt, which exhibit the strongest correlation between temperature and ETo. For the SSP5–8.5 scenario, the ETo increased over the years for all zones; the ETo will increase by 4.38 %,3.71 %, 4.27 %, 2.16 %, 3.26 %, 1.35 %, 5.22 % at the year 2099 compared to the year 2015 for zone 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 respectively. The T_min and T_max are the most critical factors that affect the ETo in all zones in the baseline and future scenarios. This study provides important insights into applying machine learning models to estimate ETo and its implications for future water management strategies. Such models hold promise for significantly enhancing regional agricultural water-resource planning and management.

研究地区埃及位于非洲东北部。研究重点该研究评估了随机森林 (RF) 和极端梯度提升 (XGB) 作为单一模型和模型混合的情况，以预测基于 18 个 GCMs 模型的共享社会经济路径（SSP1-26、SSP2-45 和 SSP5-85）的基线和未来（2015-2099）期间的蒸散发。混合模型的性能优于单一模型；RF 和 XGB 与 RF-XGB 相比，所有区域的均方根误差值都降低了，尤其是第 3 区域降低了 16.2%，这些结果表明，所有模型中性能最高的是埃及中部和南部，温度与 ETo 之间的相关性最强。在 SSP5-8.5 情景下，各区的蒸散发系数逐年增加；与 2015 年相比，2099 年 1、2、3、4、5、6 和 7 区的蒸散发系数将分别增加 4.38 %、3.71 %、4.27 %、2.16 %、3.26 %、1.35 % 和 5.22 %。在基准情景和未来情景中，Tmin 和 Tmax 是影响所有区域蒸散发量的最关键因素。这项研究为应用机器学习模型估算蒸散发总量及其对未来水资源管理战略的影响提供了重要启示。这些模型有望大大加强区域农业水资源规划和管理。

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引用次数: 0

Re-examining virtual water transfer in the Yellow River Basin, China 中国黄河流域虚拟调水再研究

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101971

Huimin Yang , Yuan Wang , Binbin Peng , Xiangping Zhang , Hongyang Zou

Study region

The Yellow River Basin (a water-deficient region) in China.

Study focus

The redistribution of virtual water through trade holds potential to enhance water security in the Yellow River Basin. We explored a virtual water tri-circulation model at the city level to mitigate water stress in the Yellow River Basin. The tri-circulation model includes internal, external and international virtual water flows. This research investigated the heterogeneity of virtual water trade between upstream and downstream regions, identified key regions and sectors to facilitate physical water redistribution and enhance regional cooperation.

New hydrological insights for the region

This study revealed that the Yellow River Basin received virtual water amounting to 8.40 % of its total virtual water consumption, with external circulation being the key circulation. Upstream regions primarily exported water resources to downstream regions and developed regions outside through agricultural trade, while downstream regions received water from upstream regions and underdeveloped regions outside through trade in agri-food products and other service industries. International circulation exported virtual water through water-intensive agricultural products, contributing to increased local environmental burden. Increased attention should be paid to virtual water transfers of the external circulation, implementing compensation strategies, and fostering technical interaction between upstream and downstream regions, and safeguarding upstream agricultural and ecological water to promote the sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin.

研究地区中国黄河流域（缺水地区）。研究重点通过贸易对虚拟水进行再分配，有可能提高黄河流域的水安全。我们在城市层面探索了一种虚拟水三重循环模式，以缓解黄河流域的用水压力。三循环模型包括内部、外部和国际虚拟水流。本研究调查了上下游地区之间虚拟水交易的异质性，确定了促进实际水量再分配和加强区域合作的关键地区和部门。上游地区主要通过农业贸易向下游地区和外部发达地区输出水资源，而下游地区则通过农业食品和其他服务业贸易从上游地区和外部欠发达地区获得水资源。国际流通通过高耗水农产品输出虚拟水，加重了当地的环境负担。应加强对外循环虚拟水量转移的关注，实施补偿策略，促进上下游地区的技术互动，保障上游农业和生态用水，促进黄河流域的可持续发展。

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引用次数: 0

Quantifying the overlooked groundwater component in the water budget of a shallow soda lake in Hungary amidst climate change concerns 在关注气候变化的同时量化匈牙利浅水苏打湖水量预算中被忽视的地下水成分

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101961

Petra Baják , András Csepregi , Péter Szabó , Máté Chappon , Ádám Tóth , Katalin Hegedűs-Csondor , Anita Erőss

Study region

Lake Velence.

Study focus

Soda lakes are extreme habitats whose special hydrochemical characteristics can partly be explained by groundwater inflow. The relationship between groundwater and Lake Velence has never been properly investigated. A significant decrease in the lake’s level in recent years urged an evaluation of the components of the lake’s water budget, including groundwater as well. A 3D transient numerical groundwater flow simulation, using Visual MODFLOW, was performed between 1990 and 2021 to evaluate the lake’s relationship with groundwater and quantify the groundwater discharge into the lake. To assess future lake level changes until 2050, six lake level simulations were run based on three different regional climate models and two global warming scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5).

New hydrological insights for the region

Our results showed that groundwater inflow accounts for up to 12 % of the total annual inflow into Lake Velence. It has been numerically shown that precipitation and evaporation are the primary drivers of lake level changes, meaning that the variation of these two parameters will impact the lake’s future. As for the future lake level changes, the RCP2.6 scenario resulted in an increase of 11 cm, while the RCP8.5 scenario led to a decrease of 30 cm compared to the observed annual average lake level until 2050. Our results emphasize the importance of integrating soda lakes into topography-driven groundwater flow systems to develop climate change adaptation strategies.

研究区域维伦茨湖。研究重点苏打湖是一种极端的栖息地，其特殊的水化学特征可部分归因于地下水的流入。地下水与 Velence 湖之间的关系从未得到过适当的研究。近年来湖水水位的大幅下降促使人们对包括地下水在内的湖水预算组成部分进行评估。在 1990 年至 2021 年期间，使用 Visual MODFLOW 进行了三维瞬态地下水流数值模拟，以评估湖泊与地下水的关系，并量化地下水排入湖泊的情况。我们的结果表明，地下水流入量占维纶斯湖年总流入量的 12%。数值显示，降水和蒸发是湖面变化的主要驱动力，这意味着这两个参数的变化将影响湖泊的未来。至于未来的湖面变化，RCP2.6 情景导致湖面上升 11 厘米，而 RCP8.5 情景则导致 2050 年前的观测年平均湖面下降 30 厘米。我们的研究结果强调了将苏打湖纳入地形驱动的地下水流系统以制定气候变化适应战略的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling for flood management: A case study of the Yamuna River Basin in Delhi 洪水管理的水文和水动力模型：德里亚穆纳河流域案例研究

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101960

Jatin Anand , A.K. Gosain , R. Khosa

Study region

Yamuna River (Delhi), India.

Study focus

The anthropogenic activities within the vicinity of the floodplain reduce the river's margin and subsequently alter the magnitude of the river's flow. The encroachment of riverbeds leads to waterlogging and flooding in urban areas, thereby causing damage to property, human life, etc. It necessitates a comprehensive study of the floodplain and changes in its proximity such as encroachment of floodplains to carry out any further activities with certainty. This study employs a two-dimensional model to simulate the Yamuna River's (YR) hydrodynamic characteristics, focusing on India's Delhi region.

New hydrological insights

Simulated flood flows are employed to evaluate floods of once in 10, 20, 25, and 30-year return periods using the flood frequency analysis for 1951–2013. The model validation results indicated that the model could mimic the flood depth in YR. Simulation results revealed that the floodplain's encroachment had increased the severity of the floods. The increase in the extremeness of flooding events, i.e., from once in a 10-year return period to a 30-year return period event, is expected to increase the areas at risk of floods by 12 %. The model also offers a potential platform for evaluating other alternatives, such as further encroachment, for a business-as-usual scenario or for restoring the Yamuna floodplains. With such a comprehensive perspective, floodplains' role enhances river basin resilience to climate and anthropogenic changes and increases flood safety.

研究区域印度亚穆纳河（德里）。研究重点洪泛区附近的人为活动减少了河流的边缘，从而改变了河流的流量。侵占河床导致城市地区内涝和洪水泛滥，从而造成财产和人员伤亡。因此，有必要对洪泛区及其附近的变化（如洪泛区的侵占）进行全面研究，以便有把握地开展任何进一步的活动。本研究采用二维模型模拟亚穆纳河（YR）的水动力特征，重点关注印度德里地区。新的水文见解利用 1951-2013 年的洪水频率分析，采用模拟洪水流量评估 10、20、25 和 30 年一遇的洪水。模型验证结果表明，模型可以模拟 YR 的洪水深度。模拟结果显示，洪泛区的侵蚀增加了洪水的严重程度。洪水事件极端性的增加，即从 10 年一遇增加到 30 年一遇，预计洪水风险区域将增加 12%。该模型还提供了一个潜在的平台，用于评估其他替代方案，如进一步侵占、"一切照旧 "方案或恢复亚穆纳河洪泛区。从这样一个全面的角度来看，洪泛平原的作用增强了流域对气候和人为变化的适应能力，并提高了防洪安全。

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引用次数: 0

An advanced approach for drinking water quality indexing and health risk assessment supported by machine learning modelling in Siwa Oasis, Egypt 在埃及锡瓦绿洲采用机器学习建模支持的饮用水质量指标和健康风险评估先进方法

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101967

Mohamed Hamdy Eid , Viktoria Mikita , Mustafa Eissa , Hatem Saad Ramadan , Essam A. Mohamed , Mostafa R. Abukhadra , Ahmed M. El-Sherbeeny , Attila Kovács , Péter Szűcs

Study region

Siwa Oasis is located very far (800 km) from the main water resources (Nile River) of Egypt and the people in the study area mainly rely on groundwater for all purposes

Study focus

The deterioration of drinking water quality and the accumulation of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in water at high levels in arid regions such as Siwa Oasis in Egypt can pose significant risks to humans and living organisms. The methodology of study involved performing geochemical modeling, contamination source detection, and optimizing a new model using machine learning model for prediction of integrated weight water quality index (IWQI), Health risk indices (HI and HQ) regarding oral and dermal exposure to potentially toxic elements (PTEs).

New hydrological insights for the region

The key findings of this research showed that the Nubian sandstone aquifer (NSSA) is characterized mainly by mixed Ca-Mg-Cl/SO₄ fresh water type and influenced by silicate weathering. The nitrates sources fell between atmospheric inputs in the case of NSSA, soil nitrogen in Tertiary carbonate aquifer (TCA), springs, and drains, while sewage water strongly affects the lakes. The IWQI values demonstrated that water resources in the deep aquifer (NSSA) is appropriate for drinking with ranking of quality range from medium to excellent quality (IWQI < 150). The shallow aquifer (TCA) is suitable for drinking in the south east of the Oasis only with intermediate quality ranking (100 < IWQI < 150), while the poor water quality needs further treatment in the western side of Siwa Oasis. The non-carcinogenic risks evaluation revealed the vulnerability of child and adult to oral exposure of PTEs in the west and center of the investigated area. The feed forward back propagation neural network (FFBP-NN) model was a powerful tool for predicting IWQI and HI, where the relationship between the actual and predicted value had R² greater than 0.95 and mean square error (MSE) range from 5.4E-05–0.66, root mean square error (RMSE) between 0.006 and 0.81, and relative square error (RSE) between 0.001 and 2.4 E-05.

研究地区锡瓦绿洲距离埃及主要水资源（尼罗河）非常遥远（800 公里），研究地区的人们主要依靠地下水生活。研究方法包括进行地球化学建模、污染源检测，以及使用机器学习模型优化新模型，以预测综合重量水质指数（IWQI）、有关口服和皮肤接触潜在有毒元素（PTEs）的健康风险指数（HI 和 HQ）。该地区新的水文见解这项研究的主要发现表明，努比亚砂岩含水层（NSSA）主要以 Ca-Mg-Cl/SO4 混合淡水类型为特征，并受到硅酸盐风化的影响。努比亚砂岩含水层（NSSA）的硝酸盐来源包括大气输入、第三纪碳酸盐含水层（TCA）的土壤氮、泉水和排水沟，而污水对湖泊的影响很大。IWQI 值表明，深含水层（北苏门答腊河）的水资源适合饮用，水质等级为中等至优（IWQI < 150）。绿洲东南部的浅含水层（TCA）仅适合饮用，水质等级为中等（100 < IWQI < 150），而西瓦绿洲西部的水质较差，需要进一步处理。非致癌风险评估显示，在调查区域的西部和中部，儿童和成人容易经口接触 PTEs。前馈反向传播神经网络（FFBP-NN）模型是预测 IWQI 和 HI 的有力工具，实际值与预测值之间的关系 R2 大于 0.95，均方误差（MSE）在 5.4E-05-0.66 之间，均方根误差（RMSE）在 0.006-0.81 之间，相对平方误差（RSE）在 0.001-2.4 E-05 之间。

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