Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies最新文献_第9页

Identification of crucial socioeconomic driving factors impacting pollution loads and their scenarios analysis in a typical watershed, southwestern China 影响西南典型流域污染负荷的关键社会经济驱动因素及其情景分析

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103067

Xuefeng Wu , Min Fan , Jing Yao

Study region

The study area is the Tuojiang River watershed, located in the southwestern China.

Study focus

Using the pollutant emission coefficient method, the Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Total Nitrogen (TN) pollution loads were estimated in a typical watershed (Tuojiang River watershed) of southwestern China from 2007 to 2017. The spatial distribution and agglomeration characteristics for the same contaminants were analyzed using Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA). Additionally, the extended Stochastic Impact by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were applied to evaluate the global and local effects of the main socioeconomic driving factors on pollution loads. Finally, the STIRPAT model and scenarios analysis considering future growth for different driving factors were combined to predict the future trends of COD and TN pollution loads in each district (county).

New hydrological insights

The COD and TN pollution loads increased from 324.46 × 10³t and 64.01 × 10³t in 2007–403.68 × 10³t and 75.79 × 10³t in 2017, respectively. The total population had the largest impact on the COD and TN pollution loads, while driving factors closely related to agricultural activity had smaller impacts on it. COD and TN pollution loads will increase from 2017 to 2030 under the four socioeconomic growth scenarios. The proposed research framework can provide information for managers to formulate water pollution reduction policies in the watershed.

研究区域研究区域为位于中国西南部的沱江流域。采用污染物排放系数法，估算了2007 - 2017年中国西南典型流域（沱江流域）的化学需氧量（COD）和总氮（TN）污染负荷。利用探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）分析了同一污染物的空间分布和集聚特征。此外，应用人口、富裕和技术回归的扩展随机影响模型（STIRPAT）和地理加权回归模型（GWR）来评估主要社会经济驱动因素对污染负荷的全球和局部影响。最后，结合STIRPAT模型和考虑不同驱动因素未来增长的情景分析，预测了各区（县）COD和TN污染负荷的未来趋势。流域COD和TN污染负荷分别从2007年的324.46 × 103t和64.01 × 103t增加到2017年的403.68 × 103t和75.79 × 103t。总人口对COD和TN污染负荷的影响最大，与农业活动密切相关的驱动因子对其影响较小。四种社会经济增长情景下，2017 - 2030年COD和TN污染负荷均呈上升趋势。提出的研究框架可为流域管理者制定减少水污染的政策提供信息。

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引用次数: 0

How earthquakes reshape carbonate aquifers: Modelling groundwater redistribution in Central Italy after the October 2016, Mw 6.5 Norcia earthquake 地震如何重塑碳酸盐含水层：模拟2016年10月6.5级诺尔恰地震后意大利中部地下水重新分布

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103063

Enrica Zullo , Matteo Albano , Michele Saroli , Marco Moro , Gabriel Testa , Marco Petitta , Nicola Bonora , Thomas Reimann , Carlo Doglioni

Study region

The carbonate hydrostructures of the Italian Apennines host major aquifers that serve as a critical groundwater resource. In tectonically active settings, such as the Sibillini Mountains, structural discontinuities and deformation features exert a dominant control on the hydraulic conductivity and storage properties of aquifers, thereby modulating groundwater flow regimes.

Study focus

The M_w 6.5 Norcia earthquake of October 30th 2016, part of the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence, caused extensive ground deformation and surface faulting, triggering significant and long-lasting hydrogeological changes across the Sibillini Mountains carbonate aquifer. In this study, we develop a regional-scale conceptual hydrogeological model and implement it in steady-state numerical simulations. Our modelling reproduces pre- and post-seismic groundwater flow conditions and highlights the role of major active faults in governing aquifer hydrodynamics.

New hydrological insights for the region

Simulations demonstrate that the earthquake-induced fault rupture, modelled as a binary (on-off) feature, facilitated cross-fault groundwater transfer, leading to a persistent depletion of the eastern aquifer sector and enhanced discharge in the central and western sectors. These findings provide evidence of how seismic events can reconfigure groundwater flow patterns in fractured carbonate systems, highlighting the critical role of tectonic structures in controlling their hydrodynamic balance.

研究区域意大利亚平宁山脉的碳酸盐水结构拥有作为重要地下水资源的主要含水层。在构造活跃的环境中，如西比利尼山脉，结构不连续和变形特征对含水层的水力导电性和储存特性起主要控制作用，从而调节地下水的流动状况。作为2016年意大利中部地震序列的一部分，2016年10月30日发生的6.5级诺尔恰地震造成了广泛的地面变形和地表断裂，引发了西比里尼山脉碳酸盐含水层显著而持久的水文地质变化。在本研究中，我们建立了一个区域尺度的概念水文地质模型，并在稳态数值模拟中实现了它。我们的模型再现了地震前和地震后的地下水流动条件，并突出了主要活动断层在控制含水层水动力学中的作用。模拟结果表明，地震引起的断层破裂，以二元（开-关）特征建模，促进了跨断层地下水的转移，导致东部含水层段持续枯竭，中部和西部含水层段的流量增加。这些发现为地震事件如何重新配置断裂碳酸盐岩系统中的地下水流动模式提供了证据，突出了构造构造在控制其水动力平衡方面的关键作用。

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引用次数: 0

Spatial-seasonal variability in groundwater irrigation suitability for the sedimentary basin of North China: An assessment within a single hydrological year based on game theory and analysis of variance 华北沉积盆地地下水灌溉适宜性的空间-季节变化——基于博弈论和方差分析的水文年评价

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103059

Xun Huang , Rongwen Yao , Yunhui Zhang , Yuting Yan , Xiao Li , Zhongyou Yu , Hongyang Guo

Study region

Sedimentary basin of North China.

Study focus

Irrigation water quality is critical for sustaining crop production and ensuring global food security. To assess the seasonal suitability and variability of groundwater irrigation in the sedimentary basin of North China, 114 groundwater samples were collected in dry and wet seasons within a single hydrological year. A novel Irrigation Water Quality Index (IWQI) integrated with game theory was employed for a comprehensive appraisal of irrigation suitability.

New hydrological insights for the region

The hydrochemical analysis revealed that a low-mineralization HCO₃-Ca type was predominant in both dry and wet seasons. Spatial classifications of electrical conductivity (EC), sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), permeability index (PI), residual sodium carbonate (RSC), and sodium percentage (Na%) showed that groundwater in both seasons was suitable for irrigation. However, salinity hazards were found in 15.79 % (dry season) and 14.03 % (wet season) of the samples, as indicated by the USSL diagram. On the contrary, the IWQI results classified all dry-season samples and 98.25 % of wet-season ones as having high or severe restriction for irrigation. This is due to the low ionic/electrolyte concentrations, which posed a long-term risk to soil structure and permeability despite having minimal immediate impact on crop growth. In addition, the seasonal effects on irrigation suitability were non-significant due to the primary recharge source of lateral inflow from the piedmont zone. To mitigate these risks, management strategies like amending irrigation water with calcium sources (e.g., gypsum) are recommended. The research findings provide important insights into managing groundwater sustainably for irrigation, although the analysis was limited to single-year data. For the development of a comprehensive irrigation suitability assessment approach, future studies should consider multi-scale water quality assessments, including different geospatial resolutions.

研究区域：华北沉积盆地。研究重点：灌溉水质对维持作物生产和确保全球粮食安全至关重要。为了评价华北沉积盆地地下水灌溉的季节适宜性和变异性，在一个水文年的干湿季节采集了114个地下水样本。结合博弈论，提出了一种新的灌溉水质指数（IWQI），用于灌溉适宜性的综合评价。水化学分析表明，干湿两季均以低矿化HCO3-Ca型为主。电导率（EC）、钠吸附比（SAR）、渗透指数（PI）、剩余碳酸钠（RSC）和钠含量（Na%）的空间分类表明，两个季节的地下水都适合灌溉。然而，根据USSL图显示，在旱季和雨季，分别有15.79 %和14.03 %的样品存在盐度危害。相反，IWQI结果将所有旱季样品和98.25% %的雨季样品分类为高或严重限制灌溉。这是由于离子/电解质浓度低，尽管对作物生长的直接影响很小，但对土壤结构和渗透性构成长期风险。此外，由于山前区侧向流入的主要补给来源，季节对灌溉适宜性的影响不显著。为了减轻这些风险，建议采用诸如用钙源（例如石膏）修改灌溉用水等管理策略。研究结果为可持续地管理地下水用于灌溉提供了重要的见解，尽管分析仅限于一年的数据。为了建立综合的灌溉适宜性评价方法，未来的研究应考虑包括不同地理空间分辨率在内的多尺度水质评价。

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引用次数: 0

Environmental and anthropogenic conditions of changes in hydro-meteorological elements in the Warta River catchment in 1961–2022 1961-2022年瓦尔塔河流域水文气象要素变化的环境与人为条件

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103057

Dariusz Wrzesiński , Bogumił Nowak , Adam Edmund Perz , Wiktoria Brzezińska , Leszek Sobkowiak

Study region

The Warta River catchment (WRC), Poland

Study focus

The aim of this study is to detect which factors most likely determine changes in river runoff in the WRC — an area with the most unfavorable water balance structure in Poland, yet strongly influenced by human activity, including agriculture and open-pit lignite mining. Based on daily discharges from 41 water gauges located on 26 rivers, the long-term runoff changes were studied in relation to selected meteorological variables, and the role of the human impact was analyzed.

New hydrological insights for the region

Climate change and human activity often overlap, leading to alterations in the water cycle. While changes in runoff are relatively well understood, it is still difficult to assess the degree of influence of these two factors on these changes. After 1988, runoff from the studied sub-catchments decreased significantly, from less than 10 % (the Gwda River) to almost 50 % (the upper Noteć River); only in one sub-catchment runoff increased by 24 % (the Kiełbaska River). Precipitation did not change statistically significantly during this period. However, significant increase in evaporation was detected, with the smallest increase (up to 20 %) in the sub-catchments of the upper WRC and the Kiełbaska River, and the largest in the sub-catchments of the middle WRC (about 25 %). It was concluded that anthropogenic activity, in particular the open-pit lignite mining was the main factor contributing to the reduction of runoff.

研究区域波兰瓦尔塔河流域（WRC）研究重点本研究的目的是检测哪些因素最有可能决定WRC中河流径流的变化——WRC是波兰水平衡结构最不利的地区，但受人类活动（包括农业和露天褐煤开采）的强烈影响。以26条河流的41个水位计日流量为基础，研究了径流长期变化与气象变量的关系，并分析了人为影响的作用。气候变化和人类活动经常重叠，导致水循环的变化。虽然对径流的变化有了较好的了解，但仍然难以评估这两个因素对这些变化的影响程度。1988年以后，所研究的子集水区径流量显著减少，从不到10% %（瓜达河）减少到近50% %（诺特克河上游）；只有一个子集水区的径流量增加了24% % （Kiełbaska河）。在此期间，降水没有统计学上的显著变化。然而，蒸发量显著增加，其中WRC上游和Kiełbaska河的子集水区蒸发量增幅最小（20% %），而WRC中游的子集水区蒸发量增幅最大（约25% %）。结论是，人为活动，特别是露天褐煤开采是导致径流减少的主要因素。

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引用次数: 0

Hydroclimatic controls on lake water oxygen isotope in alpine lake on the northern Tibetan Plateau: Insights from isotope mass balance modeling

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103036

Yongjie Lin , Mianping Zheng , Chuanyong Ye

Study region: Bangkog Lake, a representative alpine lake on the northern Tibetan Plateau (TP).

Study focus: This study investigates the controls on alpine lake water

δ^{18}

O variability through monthly monitoring of stable isotopes (

δ^{18}

O and

δ

D) and meteorological parameters during 2019. An isotope-based mass balance model (MBM) was developed to simulate seasonal

δ^{18}

O dynamics and systematically evaluate its sensitivity to key hydroclimatic drivers, aiming to improve the interpretation of

δ^{18}

O records from TP alpine lakes for paleoclimate reconstruction.

New hydrological insights: The calibrated MBM successfully reproduced observed

δ^{18}

O variations (Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency = 0.595, R

^{2}

= 0.689), revealing a clear hierarchy of environmental controls. Evaporation was identified as the dominant driver of isotopic enrichment, with temperature exerting secondary influence, while precipitation amount and relative humidity demonstrated remarkably limited effects. The pronounced evaporative sensitivity, particularly during summer months, establishes lake water

δ^{18}

O as a robust proxy for past aridity rather than precipitation variability. These findings underscore the importance of process-based modeling for accurate interpretation of isotopic archives from high-elevation lacustrine systems.

研究重点：2019年，通过稳定同位素（δ18O和δD）和气象参数的逐月监测，探讨高寒湖泊水体δ18O变化的控制因素。基于同位素质量平衡模型（MBM）模拟青藏高原高寒湖泊δ18O的季节变化，并系统评价其对关键水文气候驱动因素的敏感性，旨在提高青藏高原高寒湖泊δ18O记录的解释水平，为古气候重建提供依据。新的水文见解：校准的MBM成功地再现了观测到的δ18O变化（Nash-Sutcliffe效率= 0.595,R2 = 0.689），揭示了环境控制的清晰层次。蒸发是同位素富集的主要驱动因素，温度是次要影响因素，降水量和相对湿度的影响非常有限。明显的蒸发敏感性，特别是在夏季，使湖水δ18O成为过去干旱而不是降水变率的可靠代表。这些发现强调了基于过程的建模对于精确解释高海拔湖泊系统同位素档案的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating global precipitation datasets over Sicily: From daily estimates to extreme events 评估西西里岛上的全球降水数据集：从每日估计到极端事件

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103062

Mehmet Berkant Yıldız, Fabio Di Nunno, Giovanni de Marinis, Francesco Granata

Study region

Sicily, the largest island in the Mediterranean, exhibits complex hydro-climatic variability due to its diverse topography and proximity to contrasting maritime and continental influences. Accurate precipitation data are therefore essential for reliable hydrological modeling, disaster risk management, and climate-related assessments in this region.

Study focus

This study evaluates the performance of 11 widely used global daily precipitation datasets, satellite-based (GPM IMERG, TRMM, PERSIANN family), reanalysis (ERA5-Land, GLDAS-2), and blended products (MSWEP, HydroGFD), against ground-based observations across Sicily for the 2003–2023 period. A suite of statistical metrics (MAE, RMSE, KGE, Pearson’s r) was used to assess accuracy, precision, and bias. Additionally, the capability of MSWEP to represent extremes was analyzed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method.

New hydrological insights for the region

MSWEP consistently delivered the highest overall accuracy, followed by ERA5-Land and HydroGFD. All datasets effectively captured general precipitation patterns but struggled to reproduce high-intensity events, particularly in mountainous areas such as the northeastern slopes of Mount Etna. While MSWEP accurately represented moderate extremes, it underestimated the magnitude and frequency of severe events. These results emphasize the importance of local calibration and validation when applying global datasets in hydro-climatically complex regions. Although the 2003–2023 record limits long-term climatic inference, the findings provide practical guidance for short-term hydrological studies and dataset selection in Mediterranean settings, contributing to improved flood assessment and water resource planning.

研究区域西西里岛是地中海最大的岛屿，由于其多样的地形和接近对比鲜明的海洋和大陆影响，表现出复杂的水文气候变化。因此，准确的降水数据对于该地区可靠的水文建模、灾害风险管理和气候相关评估至关重要。本研究评估了11个广泛使用的全球日降水数据集，基于卫星的（GPM IMERG， TRMM， PERSIANN家族），再分析（ERA5-Land, glda -2）和混合产品（MSWEP, HydroGFD），与2003-2023年期间西西里岛地面观测数据的性能。采用一套统计指标（MAE、RMSE、KGE、Pearson’s r）评估准确性、精密度和偏倚。此外，利用广义极值（GEV）分布和峰值超过阈值（POT）方法分析了MSWEP表示极值的能力。mswep提供了最高的总体精度，其次是ERA5-Land和HydroGFD。所有数据集都有效地捕获了一般的降水模式，但难以重现高强度的事件，特别是在山区，如埃特纳火山的东北斜坡。虽然MSWEP准确地代表了中度极端事件，但它低估了严重事件的规模和频率。这些结果强调了在水文气候复杂地区应用全球数据集时，局部校准和验证的重要性。尽管2003-2023年的记录限制了长期气候推断，但这些发现为地中海环境下的短期水文研究和数据集选择提供了实用指导，有助于改进洪水评估和水资源规划。

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引用次数: 0

Groundwater behavior response to rainfall and reservoir infilling: Insights from long-term in-situ monitoring 地下水行为对降雨和水库蓄水的响应：来自长期原位监测的见解

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103051

Qiuxiang Huang, Yu Chen, Jialin Wang, Shupeng Li, Yan Zhou, Chu Zhang

Study region

Jinlongshan slope in the Ertan Reservoir.

Study focus

The study focuses on exploring the interplay between rainfall, reservoir level, and groundwater dynamics (encompassing groundwater levels, temperatures, and flow characteristics) within a reservoir slope. Specifically, it examines three key aspects: the characteristics of groundwater in different periods; the hysteretic behavior of groundwater levels in response to variations in rainfall and reservoir level; and the behavior of groundwater temperature and its influencing factors, with an emphasis on analyzing the lag effects and their underlying causes (e.g., time lag in slope deformation).

New hydrological insights for the region

Rainfall and reservoir level impacts on groundwater levels, exhibiting notable lag effects. Pre-impoundment, rainfall induced a two-month lag in middle and rear slope sections. During initial rapid impoundment (2 m/day), the front edge responded swiftly, while middle and rear sections lagged by 14 and 35 days, respectively. These lags decreased during normal operations. Groundwater temperatures fluctuated significantly (21°C-26°C) during rapid impoundment, stabilizing around 22°C during normal operations. Additionally, a notable lag effect was observed between changes in groundwater temperature and reservoir water level, primarily attributed to the time lag in slope deformation. This analysis provides insights into the complex hydrogeological responses of reservoir slopes to environmental and operational changes.

研究二滩水库金龙山坡区。该研究的重点是探索水库斜坡内降雨、水库水位和地下水动态（包括地下水水位、温度和流量特征）之间的相互作用。具体来说，它考察了三个关键方面：不同时期地下水的特征；地下水位对降雨和水库水位变化的滞后响应；地下水温度的变化规律及其影响因素，重点分析了滞后效应及其产生的原因（如边坡变形的时间滞后）。降雨和水库水位对地下水位的影响，表现出显著的滞后效应。蓄水前，降雨导致中坡段和后坡段滞后两个月。在快速蓄水初期（2 m/d），前缘响应迅速，而中部和后部分别滞后14天和35天。这些延迟在正常操作期间减少。在快速蓄水期间，地下水温度波动很大（21°C-26°C），在正常运行期间，地下水温度稳定在22°C左右。此外，地下水温度变化与水库水位变化之间存在显著的滞后效应，这主要归因于边坡变形的时滞性。这种分析提供了对水库斜坡对环境和操作变化的复杂水文地质响应的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Downscaling latent and sensible heats from ERA5 to Eddy Covariance measurements for a tropical coastal environment 热带沿海环境从ERA5降尺度潜热和感热到涡动相关测量

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103030

Haitem M. Almdhun , Yusri Yusup , Ehsan Jolous Jamshidi , Muhammad Fikri Sigid , Abdulghani Swesi , Abigail Adomako

Study region

This study was conducted at the Muka Head Station (MY-MKH), on the northwestern tip of Penang Island, Malaysia, within a tropical monsoon coastal environment shaped by land sea thermal contrasts. Eddy covariance (EC) observations were collected from 1 March to 30 September 2022 to characterize latent heat flux (LE), sensible heat flux (H), air temperature (T_a), wind speed (U), global radiation (R_G), and sea surface temperature (SST).

Study focus

The study evaluated the capability of the ERA5 reanalysis dataset to represent LE and H relative to high-frequency EC observations measured with a 3-D sonic anemometer and open-path infrared gas analyzer. ERA5 fields were downscaled using Statistical Linear Scaling, Quantile Mapping (QM), and Quantile Mapping with Temporal Shift (QM+TS). Performance was assessed using RMSE, MBE, MAPE, correlation, and lag analysis derived from daily averaged EC and ERA5 variables. Overall, QM+TS provided the greatest improvement, reducing systematic biases and strengthening agreement across EC observations compared with raw ERA5 fields.

New hydrological insights for the region

Improved surface flux representation advances understanding of evaporation, moisture availability, and boundary layer development along the Penang coastal margin. Correcting magnitude and timing biases enhances the use of ERA5 for estimating coastal evaporation, diagnosing surface atmosphere coupling, and assessing moisture exchange processes linked to rainfall. These refinements support more reliable hydrological modeling and climate impact evaluations in monsoon-influenced coastal environments.

研究区域本研究是在马来西亚槟城岛西北端的Muka Head Station （MY-MKH）进行的，该站点处于由陆海热对比形成的热带季风海岸环境中。利用2022年3月1日至9月30日的涡动相关（EC）观测资料，分析了潜热通量（LE）、感热通量(H)、气温（Ta）、风速(U)、全球辐射（RG）和海温（SST）的特征。该研究评估了ERA5再分析数据集相对于用三维声波风速仪和开放路径红外气体分析仪测量的高频EC观测值表示LE和H的能力。使用统计线性缩放、分位数映射（QM）和分位数映射与时间位移（QM+TS）对ERA5字段进行缩小。使用RMSE、MBE、MAPE、相关性和来自每日平均EC和ERA5变量的滞后分析来评估绩效。总体而言，与原始ERA5领域相比，QM+TS提供了最大的改进，减少了系统偏差并加强了EC观测之间的一致性。改进的地表通量表示促进了对槟城沿海边缘蒸发、水分有效性和边界层发展的理解。修正震级和时间偏差增强了ERA5在估算沿海蒸发、诊断地表大气耦合和评估与降雨相关的水分交换过程方面的应用。这些改进支持在受季风影响的沿海环境中进行更可靠的水文建模和气候影响评估。

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引用次数: 0

A more appropriate framework for graphical attribution of hydrological change in the water-energy partitioning space 在水-能分配空间中更适合水文变化图形归因的框架

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103048

Changwu Cheng , Wenzhao Liu , Xunchang John Zhang , Rui Chen , Zhaotao Mu , Xiaoyang Han , Yuanjun Zhu

Study region

15 catchments in the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP)

Study focus

In catchment-scale hydrological processes, both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration play dominant roles, while all relevant factors from the land surface to the atmosphere are coupled together to play a regulating role. The Budyko-based and orthogonality-based graphical attribution methods (BGA and OGA, respectively) visually separate the direct effect of dryness index (∅) and the regulating effect of land-atmosphere system. This study identified the limitations of OGA in its path section and accuracy, explored its essential difference from the well-established BGA, and proposed a more appropriate graphical attribution method in the water-energy partitioning (WEP) space. Finally, the proposed method was applied to attribute runoff change for 15 CLP catchments.

New hydrological insights for the region

The orthogonality-induced linearization in OGA may fail to capture nonlinear Budyko relationships, potentially leading to violations of the water and energy boundaries. By mapping Budyko curves in the WEP space, we elucidated the inconsistencies between OGA and BGA in both decomposition orders and paths, and proposed the two-path BGA as a more appropriate attribution framework in the WEP space. The improved method uncovered that, on average, the direct effect of ∅ and the regulating effect of land-atmosphere system contributed 18 % and 82 %, respectively, to runoff change for 15 CLP catchments. This study contributes to the advancement of hydrological change attribution methods.

在流域尺度的水文过程中，降水和潜在蒸散发共同起主导作用，从地表到大气各相关因子相互耦合，共同起调节作用。基于budyko的图形归因法（BGA）和基于正交性的图形归因法（OGA）分别直观地将干旱指数（∅）的直接效应和陆地-大气系统的调节效应分开。本文明确了OGA算法在路径截面和精度上的局限性，探讨了OGA算法与已有的BGA算法的本质区别，提出了一种更适用于水能分配（WEP）空间的图形归因方法。最后，将该方法应用于15个CLP流域的径流变化属性分析。OGA中正交性引起的线性化可能无法捕获非线性Budyko关系，从而可能导致违反水和能量边界。通过在WEP空间中映射Budyko曲线，阐明了OGA与BGA在分解顺序和路径上的不一致性，提出了双路径BGA在WEP空间中更为合适的归属框架。改进后的方法发现，对15个CLP流域的径流变化，∅的直接效应和陆-气系统的调节效应平均分别贡献18 %和82 %。该研究有助于推进水文变化归因方法的发展。

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引用次数: 0

Tracing groundwater dynamics in the Chakari Basin, Afghanistan: A multi-tracer study with socio-environmental implications 在阿富汗查卡里盆地追踪地下水动态：具有社会环境影响的多示踪剂研究

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103049

Abdulhalim Zaryab , Thomas J. Mack , Asadullah Farahmand , Shakir Ali , Vahid Nikpeyman , Yaser Nikpeyman , Peter G. Cook

Study region

The Chakari Basin in southeastern Kabul, Afghanistan, is an arid to semi-arid region where groundwater from springs, wells, and karezes serves as the primary water resource. Despite its importance, the hydrogeological characteristics of the basin, including groundwater origin, flow pathways, and age, remain poorly constrained due to long-standing infrastructural, technical, and socio-political limitations.

Study focus

This study applies a comprehensive multi-tracer approach to overcome these data gaps and evaluate groundwater dynamics in the Chakari Basin. We analyzed stable isotopes (δ²H, δ¹⁸O), radioactive tracers (³H, ¹⁴C), anthropogenic atmospheric trace gases (CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, SF₆), and noble gases (⁴He, ²²Ne) to identify recharge sources, quantify groundwater residence times, and assess mixing processes and anthropogenic influences. The integrated dataset provides the first systematic assessment of groundwater age and recharge conditions for the basin.

New hydrological insight

Stable isotope compositions indicate meteoric recharge originating from relatively high elevations. CFC-based groundwater ages of approximately 10–40 years reveal that a substantial fraction of the basin’s groundwater reflects multi-decadal recharge. Several tracers showed region-specific limitations, including anomalously high SF₆ likely linked to recent atmospheric contamination, dilution of ¹ ⁴C activity by carbonate dissolution, and mostly non-detectable ³H consistent with older or deeper flow components. Noble gas excesses, particularly ²²Ne, corroborate the multi-decadal residence times and indicate partial mixing along flow paths. These findings provide the first integrated groundwater age framework for the Chakari Basin and highlight the value of tracer cross-validation for robust hydrogeological interpretation in regions facing climatic stress, rising water demand, and vulnerability to contamination.

研究区域位于阿富汗喀布尔东南部的Chakari盆地是一个干旱到半干旱的地区，泉水、水井和karezes的地下水是主要的水资源。尽管它很重要，但由于长期存在的基础设施、技术和社会政治限制，该盆地的水文地质特征（包括地下水来源、流动途径和年龄）仍然缺乏约束。本研究采用综合多示踪剂方法来克服这些数据缺口，并评估Chakari盆地的地下水动态。我们分析了稳定同位素（δ²H、δ¹⁸O）、放射性示踪剂（³H、¹⁴C）、人为大气痕量气体（CFC-11、CFC-12、CFC-113、SF₆）和稀有气体（⁴He、²²Ne），以确定补给来源，量化地下水停留时间，并评估混合过程和人为影响。该综合数据集首次对该盆地的地下水年龄和补给条件进行了系统评估。稳定的同位素组成表明来自相对高海拔地区的大气补给。基于氟氯化碳的地下水年龄约为10-40年，表明该盆地地下水的很大一部分反映了多年代际补给。几种示踪剂显示出区域特异性限制，包括异常高的SF₆可能与最近的大气污染有关，碳酸盐溶解稀释了¹ ⁴C活性，大部分无法检测到³H，这与较老或较深的流动成分一致。惰性气体过量，特别是²²Ne，证实了几十年的停留时间，并表明沿流动路径的部分混合。这些发现为Chakari盆地提供了第一个综合地下水年龄框架，并强调了示踪剂交叉验证在面临气候压力、水需求上升和易受污染的地区的强大水文地质解释中的价值。

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引用次数: 0