Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies最新文献_第6页

Water level predictive control in cascaded canals based on the variation pattern analysis of integrator-delay model parameters 基于积分-延迟模型参数变化规律分析的级联水渠水位预测控制

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103139

Pengyu Jin , Chao Wang , Hao Wang , Zhao Zhang , Minghan Yang , Xiaonan Chen , Zhongzheng He

Study region

The Beijing-Shijiazhuang section of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MRP), China.

Study focus

The integrator-delay (ID) model exhibits time-varying parameters, whose relationships with system state variables remain unexplored. However, traditional prediction relies on fixed parameters, resulting in a model–plant mismatch that generates parameter uncertainties and the accumulation of prediction errors, which degrades the performance of real-time control of water levels. This study investigates the variation patterns of the parameters by identifying system state-related influencing factors and quantifying their individual functional relationships via polynomial regression and correlation analysis, guiding key factors screening. Although these single-factor analyses provide insights into individual relationships, multi-factor interactions can alter such relationships. Hence, a dynamic parameter identification method using feedforward neural networks is proposed to address this issue; based on this, an adaptive-parameter model predictive controller is further developed.

New hydrological insights

Evaluation on a simulation model of the MRP indicates that using FFNNs for dynamic parameter identification reduces accumulated prediction errors by 43.15 %, improving the predictive accuracy of ID. Compared with traditional fixed-parameter MPC, control actions are reduced by 19.49 % (0.2 % increase under Disturbance 2) and 29.69 % in magnitude and frequency on average, and water level control effect is not significantly improved (enhancement: 0.81 % on average; paired t-test, P > 0.05, 95 % CI [-2.90 %, 4.45 %]). The proposed method reduces scheduling pressures in canal pools.

研究区域：南水北调中线工程北京-石家庄段。研究重点：积分-延迟（ID）模型具有时变参数，其与系统状态变量的关系尚未研究。然而，传统的预测依赖于固定的参数，导致模型与电厂不匹配，产生参数的不确定性和预测误差的累积，降低了水位实时控制的性能。本研究通过识别系统状态相关影响因素，并通过多项式回归和相关分析量化其个体功能关系，研究参数的变化规律，指导关键因素筛选。虽然这些单因素分析提供了对个人关系的见解，但多因素的相互作用可以改变这种关系。为此，提出了一种基于前馈神经网络的动态参数辨识方法；在此基础上，进一步开发了自适应参数模型预测控制器。对MRP模拟模型的评估表明，使用ffnn进行动态参数识别可将累计预测误差降低43.15% %，提高了ID的预测精度。与传统的固定参数MPC相比,控制行为减少了19.49 %(0.2 %增加扰动下2)和29.69 %的平均大小和频率,和水位控制效果不显著提高(增强:0.81 %平均;配对t检验,P 祝辞 0.05,95 % CI[-2.90 %,4.45 %])。该方法降低了渠池调度压力。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating the impacts of green infrastructure on urban runoff attributes using detailed fine-scale hydrologic modeling 利用精细水文模型评估绿色基础设施对城市径流属性的影响

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103128

Meysam Kamali , Husnain Tansar , Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf , Nasrin Alamdari

Study region

Hillsborough Watershed (374 km²) in Midwest Florida.

Study focus

Green infrastructures (GIs) are implemented in urban areas to restore natural hydrology. Past studies have evaluated the performance of GIs for runoff reduction, but detailed fine-scale models have been rarely applied. Here, we evaluated the performance of GIs at two scales—fine-scale (3800 subwatersheds) and full watershed—under various rainfall intensities (2- to 200-yr) using Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Six GI scenarios—individual (bioretention [BR], grassed swale [GS], green roof [GR], rain barrel [RB], cistern [CS] and infiltration trench [IT]), suitability-based (maximum one GI in each subwatershed) and combined—were evaluated considering ∼18,000 hydraulic structures ("detailed" component of our modeing).

New hydrological insights for the region

With 26.8–29.1 % reduction of runoff volume and 78.6–82.4 % of peak, IT showed the best performance at the fine-scale under the 5-yr rainfall event. A combination of BR, GS, IT and CS outperformed the individual GI scenarios in reducing runoff volume (up to 78.6 %). Subwatersheds with larger imperviousness benefited most from BR, RB, CS and IT in terms of runoff volume reductions because of the higher retrofit rate. The efficiency of GR for delaying time-to-peak was less in more intense rainfall events. Our comparisons showed that fine-scale modeling revealed subwatersheds with disproportionately high or low GI effectiveness, which were masked in the coarse-scale full watershed model.

研究区域：佛罗里达州中西部希尔斯伯勒流域（374 km2）。研究重点在市区实施绿色基础设施，以恢复自然水文。过去的研究已经评估了地理信息系统减少径流的性能，但很少应用详细的精细尺度模型。本文利用暴雨水管理模型（SWMM）对GIs在不同降雨强度（2- 200年）下的两个尺度（精细尺度（3800个子流域）和全流域）的性能进行了评估。考虑到约18,000个水轮机（我们建模的“详细”部分），我们评估了6个GI情景——单个情景（生物滞留[BR]、草地[GS]、绿色屋顶[GR]、雨桶[RB]、蓄水池[CS]和入渗沟[IT]）、基于适用性（每个子流域最多一个GI）和综合情景。在5年降雨事件下，IT在精细尺度上表现最佳，径流量减少26.8-29.1 %，峰值减少78.6-82.4 %。BR、GS、IT和CS的组合在减少径流量方面优于单个GI方案（高达78.6% %）。由于改造率较高，不透水性较大的流域从BR、RB、CS和IT中获得的径流量减少最多。在较强降雨条件下，GR延迟峰值时间的效率较低。我们的比较表明，精细尺度模型揭示了不同比例的高GI效率或低GI效率的子流域，而这些在粗尺度全流域模型中被掩盖了。

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引用次数: 0

Interactive driven force analysis of blue and green water for Yalong River Basin of southwest China based on a hybrid modeling approach 基于混合建模方法的西南雅砻江流域蓝绿水交互驱动力分析

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103133

Yanan Liang , Yanpeng Cai , Junjie Niu , Xuan Wang

Study region

Yalong River Basin, southwest China

Study focus

Hydrological cycle has been affected by environmental changes, leading to serious freshwater crisis. In this research, hydrological modeling along with detrend techniques were advanced to address the blue and green water components responses to climate change and anthropogenic disturbances.

New hydrological insights for the region

Blue and green water exhibited upward trends from 1967 to 2017. In two studying periods (P1: 1981–1996; P2: 1997–2017), land use/land cover change exerted a slight effect of −2–2 mm variation in blue and green water in most subbasins. Climate change exhibited the dominant role in hydrological variations, in which the contribution of precipitation was the highest for blue and green water storage and temperature for green water flow. Rising precipitation led to an increase in blue water of overall 5–25 mm in P1 and 25–80 mm in P2. Rising temperatures caused increased green water flow, from 0–15 mm in P1 to 2–30 mm in P2. From P1 to P2, climate change’s effect on green water storage showed a negative trend in certain subbasins due to intensified warming. Spatially, regulated by catchment distributions and land cover types, the responses of blue water and green water storage to climate change presented higher heterogeneity than green water flow. This study illustrates how interactive factors modulate blue water availability and ecological water requirements in heterogeneous environments.

研究区域——西南沿江流域研究重点水文循环受到环境变化的影响，导致严重的淡水危机。在本研究中，提出了水文模型和趋势技术来解决蓝绿水组分对气候变化和人为干扰的响应。从1967年到2017年，蓝水和绿水呈上升趋势。在P1: 1981—1996年；P2: 1997—2017年两个研究期，大部分子流域的土地利用/土地覆被变化对蓝水和绿水产生了−2—2 mm的轻微影响。气候变化在水文变化中发挥主导作用，其中降水对蓝绿水储量的贡献最大，温度对绿水流量的贡献最大。降水增加导致P1蓝水总体增加5 ~ 25 mm， P2蓝水总体增加25 ~ 80 mm。温度升高导致绿水流量增加，从P1的0-15毫米增加到P2的2-30毫米。从P1到P2，气候变化对绿水储存量的影响在某些子流域由于升温加剧而呈负向变化趋势。在空间上，受流域分布和土地覆盖类型的调节，蓝水和绿水储量对气候变化的响应比绿水流量具有更高的异质性。本研究阐明了在异质环境中，交互因素如何调节蓝水可用性和生态用水需求。

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引用次数: 0

Flood sedimentation dynamics in dam-regulated river channels: A case study of the Lower Yellow River 坝控河道的洪水沉积动力学——以黄河下游为例

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103136

Xueqin Zhang , He Qing Huang , Yong Li , Chunjin Zhang , Min Zhang

Study region

The Lower Yellow River (LYR), China.

Study focus

The construction and operation of large dams can significantly alter runoff and sediment transport processes in downstream river channels, resulting in long-term and long-distance adjustments in river sedimentation. Since the Xiaolangdi Reservoir began impoundment in late 1999, the runoff and sediment transport processes in the LYR have experienced significant changes. To comprehend the response of sedimentation in the LYR to the reservoir’s operation, this study provides a detailed analysis of the spatiotemporal variations in sedimentation and examines the effects of 159 floods released from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir during 2000–2023.

New hydrological insights for the region

The LYR reached dynamic equilibrium following a long period of erosion, the magnitude of channel erosion increased rapidly from 2000 to 2004, then gradually decreased from 2004 to 2017. Floods were categorized into three types based on average sediment concentration (S_av), which varied under different reservoir regulation modes. During 2000–2023, the low (S_av<1 kg/m³) and medium (1 ≤S_av≤10 kg/m³) sediment concentration floods yielded erosion, while the high sediment concentration floods (S_av>10 kg/m³) caused either aggradation or erosion. For a stable dynamic equilibrium (both erosion and aggradation are minor) to be maintained in the LYR, it is recommended that the sediment concentration of floods released from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir be kept below 40 kg/m³.

研究区域：中国黄河下游。研究重点大型水坝的建设和运行可以显著改变下游河道的径流和输沙过程，从而对河流的沉积产生长期和远距离的调节。自1999年底小浪底水库蓄水以来，三峡库区径流输沙过程发生了显著变化。为了解三峡库区泥沙淤积对水库运行的响应，本文详细分析了三峡库区泥沙淤积的时空变化特征，并考察了2000-2023年小浪底水库159次放水对三峡库区的影响。经过长时间的侵蚀，LYR达到了动态平衡，2000 - 2004年河道侵蚀幅度快速增加，2004 - 2017年逐渐减小。根据平均含沙量（Sav）将洪水分为三种类型，不同的水库调节模式下，平均含沙量有所不同。2000-2023年，低含沙量（Sav>1 kg/m3）和中含沙量（1 ≤Sav≤10 kg/m3）洪水发生侵蚀，高含沙量（Sav>10 kg/m3）洪水发生淤积或侵蚀。为使三峡库区保持稳定的动态平衡（侵蚀和淤积均较小），建议将小浪底水库泄洪泥沙浓度控制在40 kg/m3以下。

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引用次数: 0

Advancing river management under dam regulation: Insights from the Yellow River 在大坝管理下推进河流管理：来自黄河的启示

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103134

Deyao Tu , Houjie Wang , Naishuang Bi , Xiao Wu , Aimei Wang , Fukang Qi , Yanguang Dou , Yupeng Ren

Study region

Yellow River, China

Study focus

River deltas delivering immense economic value and ecosystem services. However, sediment starvation is accelerating land loss and shoreline retreat across worldwide mega-river deltas driven by climate stressors and human interventions. The Yellow River Delta (YRD) exemplifies these challenges. Implementation of the Water–Sediment Regulation Scheme (WSRS) in 2002 initially restored delta progradation, as reservoir releases and channel erosion increased sediment delivery before 2014. The study evaluated the effectiveness of the WSRS over the past two decades from multiple perspectives and explored an optimized regulation using a 3D numerical model.

New hydrological insights

The WSRS has undergone a profound mechanistic shift. A high-efficiency phase (before 2014) has transitioned to a constrained phase (after 2018), marked by severe reservoir siltation, downstream channel armoring and limited delta progradation. The reduced delta progradation rate was controlled by multiple factors: a diminished supply of coarse sediment from the lower channel; intensified tidal currents due to the continuously protruding shoreline; an increased sediment coefficient promoting offshore dispersal; and more frequent typhoon events enhancing sediment redistribution. The river regime has transitioned from a natural to an anthropogenically controlled state, where reservoir operations dictate the water-sediment regime. Optimizing the reservoir regulation based on realistic conditions presents a significant opportunity to enhance the sediment trapping capacity of the delta, thereby promoting the sustainable development of the river-dominated delta.

研究区域：中国黄河研究重点：提供巨大经济价值和生态系统服务的河流三角洲。然而，在气候压力和人类干预的推动下，沉积物匮乏正在加速全球大型河流三角洲的土地流失和海岸线退缩。黄河三角洲（YRD）就是这些挑战的例证。2002年实施的水沙调节计划（WSRS）最初恢复了三角洲的淤积，因为在2014年之前，水库的释放和河道的侵蚀增加了泥沙的输送。该研究从多个角度评估了过去20年wrs的有效性，并利用3D数值模型探索了优化的调节方法。新的水文见解WSRS已经经历了深刻的机制转变。高效阶段（2014年之前）已经过渡到受限阶段（2018年之后），其特征是严重的水库淤积、下游河道盔甲化和有限的三角洲淤积。三角洲进积速率降低受多种因素控制：下游河道粗沙供给减少；海岸线不断凸出，潮汐流加剧；增加的泥沙系数促进近海扩散；更频繁的台风事件加强了沉积物的再分配。河流状态已经从自然状态过渡到人为控制状态，水库运行决定了水-沉积物状态。从实际出发，优化水库调控，为增强三角洲的集沙能力，促进河控三角洲的可持续发展提供了重要机遇。

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引用次数: 0

Identification of asynchronous overtopping hazard patterns of glacial lakes in the Yarlung Tsangpo Basin 雅鲁藏布江盆地冰湖非同步漫溢灾害模式识别

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103131

Shengtian Yang , Yulian Wang , Hezhen Lou , Jiyi Gong , Tongliang Gong , Gaohu Sun , Wenlong Song , Baichi Zhou , Sailong Wu

Study Region

The Yarlung Tsangpo Basin, situated on the southern Tibetan Plateau of southwestern China, represents a transboundary basin within the Third Pole region.

Study Focus

Using multisource remote sensing, DEM, and meteorological data from 1990 to 2023, this study investigates the phased expansion processes of glacial lakes with areas ≥ 0.02 km². It identifies the asynchronous response patterns of glacial lakes across different elevation zones to climate change and quantifies the lag time (Δt) between climate change and the accelerated expansion of glacial lakes. An overtopping hazard assessment framework integrating topographic potential energy and climate response characteristics is developed to identify glacial lake overtopping hazards. By synthesizing key indicators including local relief, slope gradient, lake expansion rate, lake type, and Δt, this framework reveals significant spatial heterogeneity in overtopping hazard across the basin.

New hydrological insights for the region

a) Glacial lake expansion exhibits pronounced elevational asynchrony: low-elevation lakes respond rapidly to climatic warming, whereas mid- to high-elevation lakes lag by approximately 3–8 years, forming a sequential “low-to-high elevation release” pattern. b) Overtopping hazard is primarily governed by the combined effects of topographic potential energy and hydrological recharge type. Glacier-fed lakes situated in areas of high local relief and steep slopes are more likely to accumulate potential energy and enter unstable states, thus posing a higher overtopping hazard. c) A zoned response strategy for glacial lake hazard-informed management—comprising monitoring, prevention and control, and early warning—is proposed, offering a scientific basis for mitigating glacial lake disaster hazards on the Tibetan Plateau.

雅鲁藏布江盆地位于中国西南青藏高原南部，是第三极地区的跨界盆地。利用1990—2023年的多源遥感、DEM和气象资料，研究了面积≥ 0.02 km2的冰湖的阶段性扩展过程。确定了不同高程带冰湖对气候变化的非同步响应模式，量化了气候变化与冰湖加速扩张之间的滞后时间（Δt）。建立了结合地形势能和气候响应特征的冰湖漫顶灾害评价框架。通过综合局部地形起伏、坡度、湖泊扩张率、湖泊类型和Δt等关键指标，该框架揭示了流域漫溢灾害的空间异质性。冰湖扩张表现出明显的海拔不同步：低海拔湖泊对气候变暖反应迅速，而中海拔至高海拔湖泊滞后约3-8年，形成了一个顺序的“从低到高海拔释放”模式。b)过顶灾害主要受地形势能和水文补给类型的综合影响。位于局部起伏较大和坡度陡的地区的冰川湖泊更容易积聚势能并进入不稳定状态，因此具有更高的过顶危险。c)提出了监测、防治、预警的冰湖灾害预警分区响应策略，为青藏高原冰湖灾害减灾提供了科学依据。

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引用次数: 0

Dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms of precipitation efficiency variations in China under global warming 全球变暖背景下中国降水效率变化的动力与热力学机制

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103089

Yuxuan Gao , Wen Wang , Futing Wu , Fuxiong Guo , Yanjun Hu

Study region

China.

Study focus

This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation efficiency (PE) over China (1979–2022) using ERA5 reanalysis and CHM_PRE precipitation data. Combining the moisture budget and moist static energy frameworks, we quantify the thermodynamic and dynamic controls on PE variability and assess how climate warming influences moisture transport and atmospheric stability, leading to distinct regional and temporal responses.

New hydrological insights for the region

PE exhibits pronounced regional contrasts, with the highest values over the Tibetan Plateau and the lowest in humid southern China. Over the past four decades, PE has generally increased across China, with the strongest rise in arid regions (0.25 % yr⁻¹) and weaker trends in semi-arid (0.12 % yr⁻¹) and humid regions (0.11 % yr⁻¹). As temperature rises, the increase in precipitation lags behind the rapid growth of precipitable water, leading to a decline in monthly PE. Vertical moisture advection dominates PE variability, exerting far stronger influence than horizontal transport. Further decomposition reveals that thermodynamic moistening tends to enhance PE nationwide, whereas dynamic changes determine its regional differences. In humid regions, weakened upward motion limits PE growth; in contrast, strengthened ascent and enhanced thermodynamic effects jointly increase PE in arid and high-altitude regions. These findings clarify the physical controls of precipitation efficiency under a warming climate and provide a process-based understanding of regional hydrological responses in China.

研究regionChina。利用ERA5再分析和CHM_PRE降水资料，研究了1979-2022年中国降水效率的时空演变特征。结合水分收支和湿润静态能量框架，我们量化了PE变率的热力学和动态控制，并评估了气候变暖如何影响水分输送和大气稳定性，从而导致不同的区域和时间响应。新的区域水文信息显示出明显的区域差异，青藏高原的pe值最高，而潮湿的中国南方的pe值最低。在过去的四十年里，PE在中国各地普遍增加，干旱地区的增长最强劲（0.25 % yr⁻¹），半干旱地区（0.12 % yr⁻¹）和潮湿地区（0.11 % yr⁻¹）的趋势较弱。随着气温的升高，降水的增加滞后于可降水量的快速增长，导致月PE下降。垂直水汽平流主导PE变率，对PE变率的影响远大于水平输送。进一步分解发现，热力增湿倾向于在全国范围内增强PE，而动力变化决定了PE的区域差异。在潮湿地区，向上运动减弱限制了PE的生长；而在干旱和高海拔地区，上升的加强和热力效应的增强共同增加了PE。这些发现阐明了气候变暖下降水效率的物理控制，并为中国区域水文响应提供了基于过程的理解。

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引用次数: 0

Evapotranspiration dynamics and climatic-land-use controls in the Hanjiang River Basin, 2000-2018 2000-2018年汉江流域蒸散发动态与气候-土地利用控制

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103125

Rui Li , Zhijie Zhang , Wanchang Zhang , Ping Rao

Study region

Hanjiang River Basin, China.

Study focus

This study investigates spatiotemporal dynamics of total evapotranspiration (ET) and its four components: dry canopy transpiration (ET_Canopy), wet canopy evaporation (E_Canopy), saturated soil evaporation (E_Soil), and moist soil evaporation (ET_Soil) from 2000 to 2018, using the physically-based ESSI-3 model with vertical transpiration partitioning. A multi-method framework (Random Forest, SHapley Additive exPlanations, Structural Equation Modeling) was employed to identify dominant drivers and causal pathways for total ET and ET_Canopy.

New hydrological insights for the region

Results reveal strong spatial heterogeneity and seasonal shifts in ET dominance over the study period: ET_Canopy prevails during the growing season, while E_Soil dominates in winter.Vegetation-related components (ET_Canopy, E_Canopy) exhibited increasing trends, while soil-related components (ET_Soil, E_Soil) declined, resulting in a net slight increase in total ET. Temperature, solar radiation, and leaf area index (LAI) are the primary drivers of these dynamics, exhibiting nonlinear and interactive effects on ET. In contrast, precipitation and soil water showed limited direct influence on the daily scale but contributed through lagged effects. Crucially, the transpiration attributable to plant root uptake from the second soil layer (5–30 cm) constituted the largest fraction (72.1 %) of total canopy transpiration, underscoring the role of mid-depth root zones in sustaining ET. This study provides a replicable framework for diagnosing ecohydrological processes and informs adaptive water management in monsoon-sensitive basins.

研究区域：中国汉江流域。利用基于物理的垂直蒸腾划分的esi -3模型，研究2000 - 2018年中国土壤总蒸散发（ET）及其4个组分：干冠层蒸腾（ET_Canopy）、湿冠层蒸腾（E_Canopy）、饱和土壤蒸腾（E_Soil）和湿土壤蒸腾（ET_Soil）的时空动态变化。采用随机森林（Random Forest）、SHapley加性解释（Additive exPlanations）、结构方程模型（Structural Equation Modeling）等多方法框架，确定了总蒸散量和ET_Canopy的主导驱动因素和因果通路。结果表明，研究期内ET优势表现出较强的空间异质性和季节变化特征：生长季以ET_Canopy为主，冬季以E_Soil为主。植被相关分量（ET_Canopy, E_Canopy）呈增加趋势，土壤相关分量（ET_Soil, E_Soil）呈下降趋势，导致总蒸散发呈轻微净增加趋势。温度、太阳辐射和叶面积指数（LAI）是这些动态的主要驱动因素，对蒸散发表现出非线性和交互作用。相比之下，降水和土壤水分在日尺度上的直接影响有限，但存在滞后效应。至关重要的是，第二层土壤（5-30 cm）的植物根系吸收蒸腾占总冠层蒸腾的最大比例（72.1 %），强调了中深根区在维持ET中的作用。该研究为诊断生态水文过程提供了一个可复制的框架，并为季风敏感流域的适应性水管理提供了信息。

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引用次数: 0

Impacts of water supply leakage and inter-basin water transfer on groundwater dynamics in Greater Jakarta 供水渗漏和流域间调水对大雅加达地下水动态的影响

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103121

Wulan Seizarwati , Naota Hanasaki , Saritha Padiyedath Gopalan , Taikan Oki

Study region

Greater Jakarta in the Ciliwung-Cisadane River basin, Indonesia

Study focus

Over 80 % of Jakarta's domestic water supply is imported from the Citarum River basin. Although this supply theoretically meets 65 % of current domestic water demand, approximately 46.67 % is lost through pipeline leakage. Given the large volumes involved, both leakage and inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) must be explicitly accounted in simulating Jakarta's hydrology and water resources.

New hydrological insight for this region

This study presents a refined framework for assessing water allocation and groundwater management in urbanized basins by integrating domestic water supply leakage and IBWT into a distributed hydrological model. Simulations were conducted for the Ciliwung-Cisadane River basin, covering Jakarta, at 30-arcsecond (∼1 km) resolution for the 2004–2013 period. Two leakage mechanisms were modeled: (1) LEAK1, where leakage directly recharges groundwater, and (2) LEAK2, where leakage first infiltrates the soil layer. Multiple scenarios were analyzed, including a baseline condition, leakage influence, and IBWT effects. Results show that leakage contributes 35 %-41 % (95 % confidence interval) of total groundwater recharge, with higher contributions in urban areas. IBWT reduces Jakarta's domestic water deficit by 62.5 % and increases leakage volume by 12 %. The simulations also reveal an urban groundwater recycling process in which leaked water initially intended for domestic use is unintentionally reallocated to support industrial groundwater extraction. By explicitly incorporating these urban hydrological processes, this study provides more realistic, policy-relevant insights for sustainable water resources management.

研究区域印度尼西亚Ciliwung-Cisadane河流域的大雅加达研究重点 雅加达80%以上的生活用水是从Citarum河流域进口的。虽然这种供应理论上可以满足当前生活用水需求的65% %，但由于管道泄漏，大约46.67 %的水损失了。由于涉及的水量很大，在模拟雅加达的水文和水资源时必须明确考虑渗漏和流域间调水（IBWT）。该研究通过将生活供水泄漏和IBWT整合到分布式水文模型中，提出了一个评估城市化流域水资源分配和地下水管理的完善框架。对2004-2013年期间覆盖雅加达的Ciliwung-Cisadane河流域以30角秒（~ 1 km）分辨率进行了模拟。模拟了两种渗漏机制：(1)LEAK1，渗漏直接补给地下水；(2)LEAK2，渗漏首先渗入土层。分析了多种情况，包括基线条件、泄漏影响和IBWT效应。结果表明，渗漏对地下水总补给的贡献率为35 % ~ 41 %（置信区间为95 %），城市地区的贡献率较高。IBWT将雅加达的家庭用水赤字减少了62.5% %，并使泄漏量增加了12% %。模拟还揭示了一个城市地下水循环过程，在这个过程中，最初打算用于家庭使用的泄漏水无意中被重新分配用于支持工业地下水开采。通过明确地纳入这些城市水文过程，本研究为可持续水资源管理提供了更现实的、与政策相关的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Characterizing spatially concurrent hydrological drought and its response to meteorological drought under the impact of human activities 人类活动影响下空间同步水文干旱特征及其对气象干旱的响应

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103129

Shaokun He , Qianxun Li , Kebing Chen , Lingling Zhu

Study region

The study region is the upper Hanjiang River Basin in China.

Study focus

Understanding how spatially concurrent hydrological droughts (HD) respond to meteorological droughts (MD) is crucial for early drought warning and mitigation, yet such assessments remain limited under human-altered conditions. This study examines two sub-regions (S1 and S2) in the upper Hanjiang River Basin using monthly precipitation and streamflow data (1961–2020) to characterize the inter-regional MD–HD linkages through elementary and Copula functions.

New hydrological insights for the region

Results indicate that during the natural pre-change period, both S1 and S2 exhibited strong elementary functional relationships between MD and HD magnitudes (R² > 0.8). When the MD magnitude of S1 reached a threshold of 1.16, HD onset occurred, and the HD magnitude of S2 fell within a 70 % probability interval of [0.58, 3.16] with a most likely value of 0.70. In the post-change period, human interventions—particularly reservoir regulation and irrigation—disrupted these elementary linkages, yielding more complex non-linear propagation patterns. The Copula framework successfully quantified the probabilistic linkage of concurrent HDs across regions, enabling estimation of HD severity in one basin based on MD information from another. These findings provide quantitative insight into cross-regional drought propagation and offer practical implications for hydrological drought monitoring and management in data-scarce or regulated basins.

研究区域研究区域为中国汉江上游流域。研究重点：了解空间同步水文干旱（HD）如何响应气象干旱（MD）对于早期干旱预警和缓解至关重要，但在人为改变的条件下，此类评估仍然有限。本研究利用1961-2020年汉江上游的月降水和流量数据，通过初等函数和Copula函数表征了区域间的MD-HD联系。结果表明，在自然变化前，S1和S2在MD和HD震级之间表现出较强的初等函数关系（R2 > 0.8）。当S1的MD震级达到1.16阈值时，HD发生，S2的HD震级在70 %的概率区间内[0.58,3.16]，最可能值为0.70。在变化后的时期，人类干预，特别是水库调节和灌溉，破坏了这些基本的联系，产生了更复杂的非线性传播模式。Copula框架成功地量化了不同地区并发HD的概率联系，从而可以根据来自另一个盆地的MD信息来估计HD的严重程度。这些发现提供了对跨区域干旱传播的定量见解，并为数据稀缺或受管制的流域的水文干旱监测和管理提供了实际意义。

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引用次数: 0