Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies最新文献_第6页

From risk to resilience: Quantifying water security through reliability and robustness analysis with simulation–optimization framework 从风险到弹性：基于仿真优化框架的可靠性和鲁棒性分析量化水安全

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103144

Chia-Wen Wu , Frederick N.-F. Chou , Dawn Brady

Study Region

Taiwan’s six major municipalities face pronounced wet–dry seasonal contrasts and rely heavily on monsoon-driven inflows to sustain year-round supply. Despite high annual precipitation, the uneven temporal distribution, concentration of storage in a few key reservoirs, and the strong role of agricultural withdrawals create recurrent drought risks. These conditions make the region an effective setting for operationalizing water-security assessment.

Study Focus

Water security has been widely framed from a global or continental perspective, but applying this broad concept to regional-scale drought management requires more operational clarity. This study develops a context-sensitive analytical framework to address this need. Building on Hashimoto’s (1982) concepts, two indicators are formulated—annual reliability based on sector-specific tolerance thresholds and the maximum annual deficit in percent-days. An integrated simulation–optimization model is developed to quantify these indices, explicitly representing policy-driven allocation priorities.

New Hydrological Insights for the Region

Results reveal prototypical spatial patterns: frequent but manageable shortages in the north, rare but severe deficits in central Taiwan, and both frequent and severe events in the south. The framework also identifies conditions under which optimal management fails and quantifies the backup water required for drought resilience in reservoir-dependent regions.

台湾六个主要城市面临着明显的干湿季节差异，严重依赖季风驱动的资金流入来维持全年供应。尽管年降水量高，但时间分布不均匀、主要水库的储水量集中以及农业取水的强烈作用造成了经常性干旱风险。这些条件使该区域成为实施水安全评估的有效环境。研究焦点：水安全已被广泛地从全球或大陆的角度提出，但将这一广泛的概念应用于区域尺度的干旱管理需要更多的操作清晰度。本研究开发了一个上下文敏感的分析框架来满足这一需求。基于Hashimoto（1982）的概念，我们制定了两个指标——基于行业特定公差阈值的年度可靠性和以百分比天为单位的最大年度赤字。建立了一个综合仿真优化模型来量化这些指标，明确表示政策驱动的分配优先级。结果揭示了典型的空间格局：北部频繁但可控的缺水，中部罕见但严重的缺水，南部既频繁又严重。该框架还确定了最佳管理失效的条件，并量化了依赖水库地区抗旱所需的备用水。

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引用次数: 0

Dynamic assessment of drought disaster risk based on maize growth stages in Northeast China 基于玉米生育期的东北干旱灾害风险动态评价

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103135

Zhang Jiani , Han Yang , Liu Zhuxin, Lu Ruohan, Huang Xinning

Study region

The maize-producing region of Changchun and Siping in Jilin Province, Northeast China.

Study focus

This study developed a dynamic, growth-stage-specific drought risk assessment framework for maize. We integrated multi-source remote sensing data to monitor drought via the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) during the 2018 extreme drought and constructed a comprehensive risk model incorporating hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and emergency response & recovery capability.

New hydrological insights for the region

The drought risk was driven more by socio-agricultural exposure factors (maize planting area, agricultural population) than by the immediate climatic hazard (TVDI), revealing the region's inherent vulnerability due to its intensive farming system. Spatially, risk peaked during the early growth stages and exhibited an east-west gradient. River network density emerged as the most critical factor enhancing emergency response capacity, underscoring the vital role of surface water availability and irrigation infrastructure in modulating drought impacts. This stage-specific, multi-dimensional assessment shifts the perspective from tracking drought events to diagnosing composite risk landscapes, providing a targeted scientific basis for precision drought mitigation and climate-resilient agricultural planning in this vital grain-producing region.

研究区域中国东北吉林省长春市和四平市玉米主产区。本研究建立了一个动态的、特定生长阶段的玉米干旱风险评估框架。结合多源遥感数据，利用温度植被干旱指数（TVDI）对2018年极端干旱地区进行干旱监测，并构建了包含危害、脆弱性、暴露和应急响应与恢复能力的综合风险模型。干旱风险更多地受到社会农业暴露因素（玉米种植面积、农业人口）的驱动，而不是直接气候灾害（TVDI），这揭示了该地区集约化农业系统所固有的脆弱性。在空间上，风险在生长早期达到峰值，呈现东西梯度。水网密度成为提高应急响应能力的最关键因素，强调了地表水供应和灌溉基础设施在调节干旱影响方面的重要作用。这种针对特定阶段的多维度评估将视角从跟踪干旱事件转变为诊断复合风险格局，为这一重要粮食产区的精准干旱缓解和气候适应型农业规划提供了有针对性的科学依据。

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引用次数: 0

A rapid flood inundation integrated surrogate model based on a CNN-LSTM-ATT deep learning framework 基于CNN-LSTM-ATT深度学习框架的快速洪水淹没综合代理模型

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103166

Xingyu Feng , Kairong Lin , Luwen Zhuang , Yuanhao Xu , Tongfang Li

Study region:

The Pajiang River Basin, China

Study focus:

The Pajiang River Basin is characterized by scarce hydrological data and frequent flash flood events, requiring efficient simulation for timely prediction and effective mitigation. To address these challenges, this study develops a rapid flood inundation integrated surrogate model (ISM) that incorporates physical-based hydrological-hydrodynamic models with deep learning algorithms. The ISM includes an improved TOPMODEL (3S-TOPMODEL), the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model, and a CNN-LSTM-Attention (CNN-LSTM-ATT) deep learning framework.

New hydrological insights for the region:

The 3S-TOPMODEL simulates interactions between surface water, soil water, and groundwater. It demonstrates better performance than the traditional TOPMODEL in calibration and validation, particularly for peak flows. The hydrological-hydrodynamic module of the ISM, which couples 3S-TOPMODEL with LISFLOOD-FP, achieves high accuracy in predicting flood depth and extent in the Pajiang River Basin. The CNN-LSTM-ATT algorithm is embedded within the ISM, accelerating flood simulations by reducing computational time from approximately one hour to just 5.4–6.79 s. Compared with baseline models (CNN-LSTM and 3D-CNN), CNN-LSTM-ATT provides higher accuracy, improved spatial generalization, and greater robustness, maintaining superior performance even with limited training data. Overall, the ISM provides both mechanistic hydrological understanding and a high-speed, reliable tool for real-time flood forecasting, supporting effective flood risk management and decision-making in the Pajiang River Basin.

研究区域：中国巴江流域研究重点：巴江流域水文资料匮乏，山洪灾害频发，需要高效模拟，及时预测和有效减灾。为了应对这些挑战，本研究开发了一种快速洪水淹没综合代理模型（ISM），该模型将基于物理的水文-水动力模型与深度学习算法相结合。ISM包括改进的TOPMODEL （5s -TOPMODEL）、LISFLOOD-FP水动力模型和CNN-LSTM-Attention （CNN-LSTM-ATT）深度学习框架。对该地区水文的新认识：3S-TOPMODEL模拟了地表水、土壤水和地下水之间的相互作用。它在校准和验证方面表现出比传统的TOPMODEL更好的性能，特别是在峰值流量方面。ISM的水文-水动力模块将3S-TOPMODEL与LISFLOOD-FP相结合，实现了对巴江流域洪水深度和范围的高精度预测。CNN-LSTM-ATT算法嵌入在ISM中，通过将计算时间从大约一个小时减少到5.4-6.79 s来加速洪水模拟。与基线模型（CNN-LSTM和3D-CNN）相比，CNN-LSTM- att提供了更高的精度、改进的空间泛化和更强的鲁棒性，即使在有限的训练数据下也能保持优异的性能。总体而言，ISM提供了对水文机制的理解和快速、可靠的实时洪水预报工具，支持了巴江流域有效的洪水风险管理和决策。

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引用次数: 0

Discharge-based classifications of spatio-temporal patterns of potentially gaining and losing subcatchments in the Bode River catchment, Central Germany 德国中部波德河流域潜在增减子集水区的基于流量的时空格局分类

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103161

Chao Lei , Stefano Basso , Matthew J. Cohen , Andreas Musolff , Larisa Tarasova , Christian Schmidt

Study Region

Bode River catchment in Central Germany

Study Focus

Streamflow shortages driven by low runoff yield and water losses from streams to groundwater are gaining attention amid rising water demand and climate change, which threaten ecosystems and water security. To identify the former phenomena at the subcatchment scale, we present a transferable conceptual approach that classifies subcatchments as high-yield (potentially gaining hotspots) or low-yield (potentially losing hotspots) based on whether their specific discharge exceeds or falls below the catchment average. The method is tested on 18 gauged subcatchments of the Bode River catchment in Central Germany across long-term, annual, and monthly timescales.

New Hydrological Insights for the Region

Lowland agricultural subcatchments are predominantly low-yield at the long-term scale, whereas mountainous forested/seminatural subcatchments are mainly high-yield. Comparison with a well-established water balance approach confirms the method’s ability to identify potentially gaining and losing hotspots while reducing uncertainty, as it relies solely on observed discharge rather than precipitation and evapotranspiration data, which are often uncertain. Seasonal analysis reveals dynamic transitions between yield states that the water balance method cannot capture: high-yield subcatchments tend to shift to low-yield in summer, while low-yield subcatchments show higher relative discharge during the same period. Annual analyses also indicate that high-yield mountainous subcatchments are more resilient to prolonged dry conditions. This study provides a proof-of-concept for a simple and transferable approach, which relies on discharge observations only to obtain spatially and temporally differentiated insights into water yield and potentially gaining and losing conditions across gauged catchments.

研究区域德国中部博德河集水区研究重点在水资源需求上升和气候变化威胁生态系统和水安全的情况下，低径流量和从溪流到地下水的水分流失导致的河流短缺日益受到关注。为了确定子集水区尺度上的前一种现象，我们提出了一种可转移的概念方法，根据子集水区的具体排放量是否超过或低于集水区的平均水平，将子集水区分类为高产（潜在的热点）或低产量（潜在的热点）。该方法在德国中部博德河集水区的18个测量子集水区进行了长期，年度和月度时间尺度的测试。在长期尺度上，低地农业亚集水区主要是低产区，而山地森林/半自然亚集水区主要是高产区。与已建立的水平衡方法的比较证实了该方法能够识别潜在的获得和失去热点，同时减少不确定性，因为它完全依赖于观测流量，而不是降水和蒸散发数据，这通常是不确定的。季节分析揭示了水量平衡法无法捕捉的产量状态之间的动态变化：高产子集水区在夏季有向低产转移的趋势，而低产子集水区同期的相对流量较高。年度分析还表明，高产山区集水区对长期干旱条件的适应能力更强。该研究为一种简单且可转移的方法提供了概念验证，该方法仅依赖于流量观测，以获得对测量集水区的水量和潜在得失情况的空间和时间差异见解。

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引用次数: 0

Integrated multi-objective model predictive control framework for cascaded open-channel systems with multi-source lateral inflows 具有多源横向流入的级联明渠系统集成多目标模型预测控制框架

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103164

Xiaohua Li , Guanghua Guan , Yufeng Luo , Raziyeh Farmani

Study region

Terminal ten cascaded pools of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MR-SNWD), China, with lateral inflows from along-route reservoirs.

Study focus

Reliable water delivery in terminal canal reaches is challenged by demand fluctuations and lateral inflows acting under wave-propagation delays. To address timing and allocation mismatches, we propose a control-oriented Multi-source Lateral Inflow Integrator–Delay (MLI-ID) model that treats the main inflow and each lateral inflow as independent delayed inputs. Building on MLI-ID, a Lateral Inflow Feedforward Guided MPC (LIFG-MPC) framework embeds multi-objective lateral inflow allocation—operation performance, demand satisfaction, and source allocation—into rolling-horizon control, supported by a radar chart–based integration index for real-time compromise selection.

New hydrological insights for the regions

Coordinated regulation of multi-source lateral inflows markedly improves water-level regulation and increases supply reliability across varying demand scenarios in the terminal reach. The results reveal a capacity–delay controlled mechanism: along-route reservoirs function as fast-response buffers that can absorb incremental demand within their combined supply capacity, whereas exceedance of this capacity shifts the system’s dependence toward upstream releases whose longer propagation delays restrict timely compensation and define a practical reliability boundary for regional water delivery. These findings underscore that explicitly accounting for multi-source inflow delays and allocation–control coupling is essential for stable operation of cascaded open-channel systems in the MR-SNWD and similar regulated transfer canals.

南水北调中线10号终端梯级池沿线水库横向流入研究区域研究重点终端运河河段的可靠输水受到需求波动和波浪传播延迟作用下的侧向流入的挑战。为了解决时间和分配不匹配问题，我们提出了一个面向控制的多源横向流入积分器-延迟（MLI-ID）模型，该模型将主流入和每个横向流入视为独立的延迟输入。在MLI-ID的基础上，横向流入前馈制导MPC （LIFG-MPC）框架将多目标横向流入分配（操作性能、需求满意度和资源分配）嵌入滚动水平控制中，并由基于雷达图的实时折衷选择集成指标提供支持。多源横向流入的协调调节显著改善了水位调节，并提高了终端地区不同需求情景下的供应可靠性。研究结果揭示了一种能力-延迟控制机制：沿线水库作为快速响应缓冲区，可以在其联合供应能力范围内吸收增量需求，而超过这一能力则使系统转向上游放水，上游放水的较长传播延迟限制了及时补偿，并为区域供水确定了实际的可靠性边界。这些发现强调，明确考虑多源流入延迟和分配-控制耦合对于MR-SNWD和类似调节转运渠道级联明渠系统的稳定运行至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Vegetation-driven evapotranspiration enhancements modulate the climate in the Nile River basin 植被驱动的蒸散发增强调节了尼罗河流域的气候

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103152

Samuale Tesfaye , Gebeyehu Taye , Dirk Hölscher

Study region

Nile River basin (NRB), Northeastern Africa.

Study focus

Despite substantial recent vegetation changes in the NRB, their influence on local temperature and precipitation remains uncertain, limiting effective climate adaptation, land management, and water-resource planning in this region. This study examines how vegetation dynamics affect regional climate and the biogeophysical mechanisms driving vegetation–climate feedbacks from 1982 to 2020 using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), combined with long-term remote sensing data and a regression model capturing bidirectional interactions between leaf area index (LAI) and climate variables.

New hydrological insights for the region

About 54 % of the basin’s vegetated areas show significant increases in LAI. In most regions, enhanced vegetation density exerts a cooling effect through increased evapotranspiration, reducing temperature across 43 % of vegetated land, particularly in forest- and shrub-dominated areas. However, in high-elevation regions of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda, vegetation induced surface warming effect by reducing albedo and enhancing solar energy absorption. Overall, vegetation change contributes to a net basin cooling of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C per decade, offsetting 9.5 ± 2.9 % of NRB warming over 39 years. Impacts on precipitation are weak and spatially inconsistent, with only semi-arid regions showing slight positive feedback. Seasonal variability is strong, evapotranspiration-driven cooling and positive precipitation responses dominate June–September and October–January, whereas radiative warming and negative precipitation responses prevail from February–May. Non-radiative processes are the primary drivers of climate responses to vegetation change. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating vegetation dynamics into climate mitigation, adaptation strategies, and model refinement.

研究区域尼罗河流域（NRB），非洲东北部。研究重点：尽管北北纬带最近发生了大量植被变化，但它们对当地温度和降水的影响仍然不确定，限制了该地区有效的气候适应、土地管理和水资源规划。利用社区地球系统模型第2版（CESM2），结合长期遥感数据和叶面积指数（LAI）与气候变量之间的双向相互作用回归模型，研究了1982 - 2020年植被动态对区域气候的影响以及驱动植被-气候反馈的生物地球物理机制。大约54% %的流域植被面积显示出LAI的显著增加。在大多数地区，植被密度的增加通过增加蒸散作用产生降温效果，降低了43% %的植被地的温度，特别是在森林和灌木为主的地区。然而，在埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和乌干达等高海拔地区，植被通过降低反照率和增强太阳能吸收来诱导地表增温效应。总体而言，植被变化对流域净降温的贡献为0.02 ± 0.006°C / 10年，抵消了39年来NRB升温的9.5% ± 2.9 %。对降水的影响较弱且空间不一致，只有半干旱区表现出轻微的正反馈。季节变率较强，6 - 9月和10 - 1月以蒸散发驱动的降温和正降水响应为主，2 - 5月以辐射增温和负降水响应为主。非辐射过程是气候对植被变化响应的主要驱动因素。这些发现强调了将植被动态纳入气候减缓、适应战略和模型改进的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Downstream fining and rounding in sand-bed river and its significance: A case study from the Ganjiang River, China 沙质河床下游的精细化和围化及其意义——以赣江为例

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103156

Fangen Hu , Xia Xiao , Yanjun Che , Qingbin Fan , Yun Xu

Study region

The Ganjiang River in southern China.

Study focus

The ubiquitous pattern and mechanisms of downstream fining and rounding of sediments in gravel-bed rivers is well studied. However, little is known about these processes in sand-bed rivers. In this study, 37 river sand, 25 beach sand, and 17 dune sands samples across a 625 km transect from source to sink were analyzed, by dynamic image technique, and geochemical elements, to investigate the downstream evolution of particle size and shape in different sand fractions in a sand-bed river.

New hydrological insights for the region

Our results reveal that medium sand fractions and bulk samples gradually become rounder and finer with downstream distance, whereas fine sand fractions transported in suspension display no significant downstream trend. The medium sand fraction exhibits a much smaller diameter reduction rate, but a roughly equal shape improvement rate compared to the bulk samples. This indicates that abrasion dominates shape evolution and hydraulic sorting plays a key role in downstream fining. In addition, abrupt changes of the sediments in particle shape from source to sink demonstrate the occurrence of aeolian-fluvial interaction processes along the Poyang Lake, which significantly improved particle shape of beach sand. These findings have significant implications for predicting the downstream evolution of sediments, and utilizing particle size and shape to aid in paleoenvironment reconstruction and source area constraints.

研究区域：中国南部的赣江流域。研究重点研究了砾石河床中普遍存在的沉积物下游细化和围成的规律和机制。然而，人们对砂床河流中的这些过程知之甚少。本研究利用动态图像技术和地球化学元素，分析了一条沙床河流从源到汇625 km样带的37个河砂、25个滩砂和17个沙丘砂样品，探讨了不同砂组分粒度和形状的下游演化规律。研究结果表明，随着下游距离的增加，中沙粒和散装沙粒逐渐变得更圆、更细，而悬浮运输的细沙粒则没有明显的下游趋势。中砂粒的直径减小率要小得多，但与大块样品相比，形状改善率大致相等。这表明磨蚀作用主导了岩石的形状演变，水力分选在下游细化过程中起着关键作用。此外，沉积物颗粒形态从源到汇的突变表明，鄱阳湖沿岸发生了风—河相互作用，显著改善了滩砂的颗粒形态。这些发现对于预测沉积物的下游演化，以及利用粒度和形状来帮助古环境重建和源区约束具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Study on regional nonlinear seepage flow combining indoor tests and numerical simulation 室内试验与数值模拟相结合的区域非线性渗流研究

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103157

Yanrong Zhao , Haonan Wang , Jinguo Wang , Yikai Yang , Xiaosong Dong , Zhiheng Ma

Study region

The Xixiayuan area on the northern bank of the Yellow River in Luoyang, Henan Province, China, is characterized by a typical riverbank dual-structure aquifer system with high permeability. The Yellow River boundary water level is elevated, resulting in strong inward recharge within the region.

Study focus

In seepage analysis and modelling, the influence of non-Darcy effects cannot be neglected. However, most seepage problems are still directly simplified as linear flow, which can lead to substantial errors. In this study, a local-scale physical model test is used to investigate nonlinear seepage behaviour at the local scale, and two parameters are proposed to identify flow regime transitions: the nonlinear hydraulic conductivity K_F and the non-Darcy effect parameter δ, which quantifies the degree of nonlinearity. To further assess the impact of nonlinear seepage on regional-scale groundwater level distribution, a nonlinear partial differential governing equation is derived from the Forchheimer equation. A numerical simulation code is then developed to model the nonlinear seepage field at the regional scale; it directly uses parameters obtained from indoor tests without additional adjustment of fluid or medium properties, thereby avoiding secondary parameter tuning. These findings provide a new approach for mechanistic investigation and numerical simulation of similar nonlinear seepage fields.

New hydrological insights for the region

Field sampling were used to investigate the nonlinear seepage behaviour of the sand–gravel medium at the local scale. Analysis of the test data and parameter K_F trends shows that, owing to the granular structure of the sand–gravel deposits, seepage within the porous matrix tends to become nonlinear even at relatively low seepage velocities. Building on these results, a regional seepage field was simulated numerically. Using field observations as the benchmark, the independently developed regional-scale nonlinear seepage model reproduces the actual seepage conditions more accurately than a conventional linear model, reducing inflow prediction errors by approximately 40 % and producing maximum hydraulic gradients along the excavation slope that are about 16 % higher. These results have practical implications for hydraulic design in riverbank engineering and for preventing and mitigating seepage-induced failures.

河南洛阳黄河北岸西夏园地区具有典型的高渗河岸双结构含水层体系。黄河边界水位升高，区域内向内补给强烈。在渗流分析和建模中，非达西效应的影响不容忽视。然而，大多数渗流问题仍然直接简化为线性流动，这可能导致很大的误差。在本研究中，采用局部尺度物理模型试验研究了局部尺度下的非线性渗流行为，并提出了两个参数来识别流型转变：非线性水力传导系数KF和非达西效应参数δ，该参数量化了非线性程度。为了进一步评价非线性渗流对区域尺度地下水位分布的影响，从Forchheimer方程推导出非线性偏微分控制方程。在此基础上，建立了区域尺度下非线性渗流场的数值模拟程序；它直接使用室内试验获得的参数，无需对流体或介质特性进行额外调整，从而避免了二次参数调整。这些发现为类似非线性渗流场的力学研究和数值模拟提供了新的途径。新的水文见解为区域现场采样被用来研究非线性渗流行为的砂砾介质在局部尺度。试验数据和参数KF趋势分析表明，由于砂砾层的颗粒状结构，即使在较低的渗流速度下，多孔基质内的渗流也趋于非线性。在此基础上，对区域渗流场进行了数值模拟。独立开发的区域尺度非线性渗流模型以现场观测为基准，比传统的线性模型更准确地再现了实际渗流情况，将入流预测误差降低了约40% %，并使沿开挖边坡的最大水力梯度提高了约16% %。这些结果对堤岸工程的水力设计以及预防和减轻渗漏破坏具有实际意义。

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引用次数: 0

Soil erosion and nitrogen loss characteristics of gravel-containing sloping farmland in the three gorges reservoir area 三峡库区含砾坡耕地土壤侵蚀与氮素流失特征

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103165

Ruzhang Gao , Bingqin Zhao , Jiwei Wang , Xingfeng Zhang , Hai Xiao , Lun Zhang , Daxiang Liu , Dong Xia , Zhenyao Xia , Wennian Xu

Study region

Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) area, China.

Study focus

Soil erosion and associated nitrogen loss from sloping farmland present a critical global environmental challenge. However, research on how hydrodynamic characteristics influence soil erosion and nitrogen loss in gravel-containing sloping farmland remains limited. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted simulated rainfall experiments on gravel-containing sloping farmlands to further clarify the regulatory roles and impact pathways of hydrodynamic parameters in processes.

New hydrological insights

Gravel content significantly reduced infiltration rate and increased runoff rate. Sediment yield peaked at 20 % gravel content. Nitrate nitrogen (NO₃^-) loss in runoff consistently exceeded ammonium nitrogen (NH₄⁺) loss. Gravel notably increased Stream power (ω), and the enhanced runoff further intensified the disparity between NO₃^- and NH₄⁺ loss in runoff. Model fitting showed that gravel amplified the effects of rainfall intensity and slope gradient on soil erosion and nitrogen loss. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) revealed that experimental variables influenced nitrogen loss both directly through hydrodynamic parameters (path coefficient = 0.346) and indirectly via erosion characteristics mediated by hydrodynamics (path coefficient = 0.389). These insights underscore that managing the hydrodynamic processes, for instance by increasing Darcy-Weisbach friction factor (f), is key to controlling soil erosion and nitrogen loss in gravel-containing sloping farmland.

研究区域：三峡库区。坡耕地的土壤侵蚀和氮素流失是全球面临的重大环境挑战。然而，水动力特性对含砾坡耕地土壤侵蚀和氮素流失的影响研究仍然有限。为了解决这一知识缺口，我们在含砾石坡耕地上进行了模拟降雨实验，以进一步阐明水动力参数在过程中的调节作用和影响途径。新的水文见解：砾石含量显著降低入渗速率，增加径流速率。产沙量在含砾量为20% %时达到峰值。径流中硝态氮（NO3-）的损失始终大于铵态氮（NH4+）的损失。碎石显著增加了径流功率（ω），径流的增加进一步加剧了径流中NO3-和NH4+损失的差异。模型拟合表明，砾石放大了降雨强度和坡度对土壤侵蚀和氮流失的影响。偏最小二乘结构方程模型（PLS-SEM）表明，实验变量通过水动力参数（路径系数= 0.346）直接影响氮损失，通过水动力介导的侵蚀特性（路径系数= 0.389）间接影响氮损失。这些见解强调，管理水动力过程，例如通过增加达西-韦斯巴赫摩擦系数(f)，是控制含砾石坡耕地土壤侵蚀和氮流失的关键。

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引用次数: 0

Enhancing hydrological simulation and climate change impact assessment for the Poyang Lake Region, China: A novel hybrid SWAT-GCN-BiLSTM framework 基于SWAT-GCN-BiLSTM的鄱阳湖地区水文模拟与气候变化影响评估

IF 5 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103145

Xinxin Zheng , Yiwei Luo , Kan Zhang , Zhenying Zeng , Xiaoying Yang , Xiaogang Li

Study Region

This study was conducted in the ecologically critical and climate-sensitive Poyang Lake Region of China.

Study Focus

Global climate change has increased extreme hydrological events worldwide, necessitating advanced hydrological models to manage escalating risks. This study proposed a hybrid model, SWAT-GCN-BiLSTM, integrating the strengths of SWAT (simulating physical hydrological processes), GCN (capturing spatial topological relationships), and BiLSTM (modeling complex temporal dynamics).

New Hydrological Insights

The hybrid SWAT-GCN-BiLSTM model outperformed the standalone SWAT and BiLSTM models, with significantly higher NSE and R² values of around 0.90. The hybrid model particularly excelled in simulating extreme flows, reducing RMSE by over 20 % for extremely high flows (≥ Q10, Q10 represents streamflow magnitude with a 10 % exceedance probability). Based on the ensemble mean of four Global Climate Models, the hybrid model predicted a substantial increase in streamflow during the wet months of April (24.9 %-44.1 %) and May (11.5 %-20.2 %) compared to the baseline. Furthermore, under all considered climate change scenarios, the Q10 of the 7-day flow was projected to increase by 9.5–19.5 %. Conversely, streamflow in the dry months of November and December was projected to decrease by 21.0–34.7 %. This indicates climate change may exacerbate hydrological extremes, necessitating robust adaptive management strategies to address both increased spring flooding risk and heightened drought conditions during late autumn/early winter in the region under a changing climate.

研究区域本研究在中国生态临界和气候敏感的鄱阳湖地区进行。全球气候变化增加了世界范围内的极端水文事件，需要先进的水文模型来管理不断升级的风险。本研究提出了SWAT-GCN-BiLSTM混合模型，将SWAT（模拟物理水文过程）、GCN（捕获空间拓扑关系）和BiLSTM（模拟复杂时间动态）的优势结合起来。混合SWAT- gcn -BiLSTM模型优于单独的SWAT和BiLSTM模型，NSE和R2值明显更高，约为0.90。混合模型在模拟极端流量方面尤其出色，对于极高流量，RMSE降低了20 %以上（≥Q10， Q10代表流量大小，超出概率为10 %）。基于四个全球气候模式的集合平均值，混合模式预测4月（24.9 %-44.1 %）和5月（11.5 %-20.2 %）与基线相比，湿月的流量显著增加。此外，在所有考虑的气候变化情景下，预计7天流量的Q10将增加9.5 - 19.5% %。相反，11月和12月旱季的流量预计减少21.0 - 34.7% %。这表明气候变化可能加剧水文极端事件，需要强有力的适应性管理策略来应对气候变化下该地区春季洪水风险增加和秋末/初冬干旱状况加剧的问题。

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引用次数: 0