Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies最新文献_第4页

Drought evolution and driving mechanisms in the China-Pakistan economic corridor under a changing environment

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102263

Anni Deng , Wenxin Xie , Xinyi Chen , Hui Ran , Qiao Li , Ping'an Jiang , Tehseen Javed , Qiang Yu , Hao Feng , Ning Yao , Mengyuan Xu

Study region

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a critical hub of the "Belt and Road" initiative, making it particularly vulnerable to drought effects driven by climate change and human activities.

Study focus

This study evaluates the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) at 0–10 cm and 10–40 cm depths using monthly grid data for meteorological and soil moisture from 1981 to 2021. The Run Theory, principal component analysis, and other methodologies were employed to analyze drought evolution and its driving factors.

New hydrological insights for the region

The longer the timescale, the stronger the correlation between SPEI and SMDI. "Dryness-dryness," indicating prolonged low moisture, and "dryness-wetness," marking transitions to wetter conditions, were recorded during 1998–2003 and 2016–2021, respectively. Spatial trend analysis revealed significant declines in SPEI during summer and winter, while SMDI showed an upward trend in the northeast and southwest regions of CPEC. As indicated by the SPEI, SMDI_0–10, and SMDI_10–40, extreme drought events occurred with respective counts of 10, 8, and 6. These significant drought events primarily affected Sindh, Punjab, and Gilgit-Baltistan. The study identifies strong correlations (r > 0.7) between drought indices and climate factors, with atmosphere status exerting the more significant impact on drought in CPEC. These insights are invaluable for formulating effective drought monitoring and early warning systems within the CPEC region.

{"title":"Drought evolution and driving mechanisms in the China-Pakistan economic corridor under a changing environment","authors":"Anni Deng , Wenxin Xie , Xinyi Chen , Hui Ran , Qiao Li , Ping'an Jiang , Tehseen Javed , Qiang Yu , Hao Feng , Ning Yao , Mengyuan Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102263","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102263","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a critical hub of the \"Belt and Road\" initiative, making it particularly vulnerable to drought effects driven by climate change and human activities.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>This study evaluates the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) at 0–10 cm and 10–40 cm depths using monthly grid data for meteorological and soil moisture from 1981 to 2021. The Run Theory, principal component analysis, and other methodologies were employed to analyze drought evolution and its driving factors.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The longer the timescale, the stronger the correlation between SPEI and SMDI. \"Dryness-dryness,\" indicating prolonged low moisture, and \"dryness-wetness,\" marking transitions to wetter conditions, were recorded during 1998–2003 and 2016–2021, respectively. Spatial trend analysis revealed significant declines in SPEI during summer and winter, while SMDI showed an upward trend in the northeast and southwest regions of CPEC. As indicated by the SPEI, SMDI<sub>0–10</sub>, and SMDI<sub>10–40</sub>, extreme drought events occurred with respective counts of 10, 8, and 6. These significant drought events primarily affected Sindh, Punjab, and Gilgit-Baltistan. The study identifies strong correlations (<em>r</em> > 0.7) between drought indices and climate factors, with atmosphere status exerting the more significant impact on drought in CPEC. These insights are invaluable for formulating effective drought monitoring and early warning systems within the CPEC region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102263"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143509821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analysis of water supply and usage cooperation strategies and evolutionary game among multiple stakeholders in water network

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102258

Junyan Gao , Liang Zheng , Shuangtong Li , Xiangtian Nie , Kexin Huang

Study region

Cooperation in water supply and usage under the national water network construction framework in China.

Study focus

The development of water network projects can significantly alleviate water resource scarcity while enhancing the regional carrying capacity of water resources. The effectiveness and efficiency of water supply through these networks depend on the cooperation of multiple stakeholders, including water source transferring areas, receiving areas, and the operation of the water network infrastructure itself. This study integrates China’s current practices in water network construction and operation, identifies three typical water supply modes, and analyzes the behavioral strategies of stakeholders. Evolutionary game models are developed to explore the stable evolutionary pathways for cooperation in water supply and usage.

New hydrological insights for the region

The water usage strategies of water receiving areas significantly influence the stable evolution strategies of tripartite game system. Both supply-side competition and demand-side competition can ultimately evolve into water price competition. The business strategies of enterprises are highly uncertain, and when they possess strong bargaining power, there is a high probability of water supply price increases. Therefore, price regulation measures are essential to safeguard social welfare. To prevent the demand side from falling into price competition, it is recommended that mutual water usage negotiation mechanisms be established between water receiving areas, with higher-level government departments intervening in the macro-allocation of water resources. These insights provide valuable guidance for coordinating regional water demand, alleviating supply-demand contradictions, and reforming regional integrated water pricing.

{"title":"Analysis of water supply and usage cooperation strategies and evolutionary game among multiple stakeholders in water network","authors":"Junyan Gao , Liang Zheng , Shuangtong Li , Xiangtian Nie , Kexin Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102258","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102258","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Cooperation in water supply and usage under the national water network construction framework in China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>The development of water network projects can significantly alleviate water resource scarcity while enhancing the regional carrying capacity of water resources. The effectiveness and efficiency of water supply through these networks depend on the cooperation of multiple stakeholders, including water source transferring areas, receiving areas, and the operation of the water network infrastructure itself. This study integrates China’s current practices in water network construction and operation, identifies three typical water supply modes, and analyzes the behavioral strategies of stakeholders. Evolutionary game models are developed to explore the stable evolutionary pathways for cooperation in water supply and usage.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>The water usage strategies of water receiving areas significantly influence the stable evolution strategies of tripartite game system. Both supply-side competition and demand-side competition can ultimately evolve into water price competition. The business strategies of enterprises are highly uncertain, and when they possess strong bargaining power, there is a high probability of water supply price increases. Therefore, price regulation measures are essential to safeguard social welfare. To prevent the demand side from falling into price competition, it is recommended that mutual water usage negotiation mechanisms be established between water receiving areas, with higher-level government departments intervening in the macro-allocation of water resources. These insights provide valuable guidance for coordinating regional water demand, alleviating supply-demand contradictions, and reforming regional integrated water pricing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102258"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The ground ice melting has accelerated the lake expansion in the hinterland of the permafrost region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102268

Shibo Liu , Huayun Zhou , Lin Zhao , Lingxiao Wang , Defu Zou , Guojie Hu , Yuxin Zhang , Zhe Sun , Zhibin Li , Yongping Qiao

Study region

The Zonag Lake-Yanhu Lake basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP).

Study focus

The melting of ground ice near the permafrost table is an important factor leading to the lake expansion on the QTP. We quantitatively assessed the contribution of change in ground ice to lake expansion in the Zonag Lake-Yanhu Lake basin using interferometric synthetic aperture radar monitoring.

New hydrological insights for the region

Two migration modes of meltwater from ground ice near the permafrost table were identified: one flows directly into the lake, while the other replenishes the active layer. From 2018–2021, the meltwater source of ground ice melting to the hydrological cycle was estimated at 0.04 ± 0.002 Gt/a, accelerating lake expansion (the rate of increase in lake water storage) by 9.8 %. Our findings also indicate that ground ice meltwater increases the soil moisture content of the active layer, with an estimated increase in equivalent liquid water thickness of approximately 0.002 Gt/a. This suggests that previous assessments of water released from ground ice melting, based on ground surface subsidence, may underestimated actual amounts by around 5 % in the permafrost regions. These findings emphasized that the hinterland permafrost region was also experiencing rapid degradation, and the melting of ground ice was accelerating lake expansion, providing valuable insights into the impacts of permafrost changes on the regional water cycle.

{"title":"The ground ice melting has accelerated the lake expansion in the hinterland of the permafrost region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau","authors":"Shibo Liu , Huayun Zhou , Lin Zhao , Lingxiao Wang , Defu Zou , Guojie Hu , Yuxin Zhang , Zhe Sun , Zhibin Li , Yongping Qiao","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102268","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102268","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Zonag Lake-Yanhu Lake basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP).</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>The melting of ground ice near the permafrost table is an important factor leading to the lake expansion on the QTP. We quantitatively assessed the contribution of change in ground ice to lake expansion in the Zonag Lake-Yanhu Lake basin using interferometric synthetic aperture radar monitoring.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Two migration modes of meltwater from ground ice near the permafrost table were identified: one flows directly into the lake, while the other replenishes the active layer. From 2018–2021, the meltwater source of ground ice melting to the hydrological cycle was estimated at 0.04 ± 0.002 Gt/a, accelerating lake expansion (the rate of increase in lake water storage) by 9.8 %. Our findings also indicate that ground ice meltwater increases the soil moisture content of the active layer, with an estimated increase in equivalent liquid water thickness of approximately 0.002 Gt/a. This suggests that previous assessments of water released from ground ice melting, based on ground surface subsidence, may underestimated actual amounts by around 5 % in the permafrost regions. These findings emphasized that the hinterland permafrost region was also experiencing rapid degradation, and the melting of ground ice was accelerating lake expansion, providing valuable insights into the impacts of permafrost changes on the regional water cycle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102268"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143480517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How have the drawdown zones of large reservoirs changed over the past two decades in China?

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102260

Jiamin Qin , Shengjun Wu , Zhaofei Wen

Study region

This study focuses on the Reservoir Drawdown Zones (RDZs) of 727 large reservoirs in China.

Study focus

The research investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of RDZs from 2000 to 2021, utilizing remote sensing data from the Global Surface Water Dataset (GSWD). It examines trends in RDZ area changes, their spatial distribution across major river basins, and the key drivers, including reservoir operations, climate variability, and human activity.

New hydrological insights for the region

According to the findings, RDZ zones constitute around 35 % of a major reservoir's maximum water surface area. Although there are significant fluctuations over time, the total area of RDZs shows an increasing trend on a temporal scale. Prior to 2015, there were some variations in the growth of RDZ areas, which were likely caused by external factors such as operating plans, early reservoir commissioning, and climate change. The capacity of reservoir operations to adjust to climate change was enhanced after 2015 due to the construction and operation of additional large reservoirs, as well as improvements in scheduling and management. As a result, RDZ regions continued to expand at a rate significantly faster than before 2015. Geographically, RDZs are primarily distributed in eastern, central, and southern China, particularly in the Songhua and Liaohe River Basins, the Yangtze River Basin, and the Pearl River Basin. From a spatial perspective, local population density, economic growth, and water resource management techniques, in addition to geographic and climatic factors, may influence the distribution patterns of RDZs across reservoirs of varying sizes. In RDZ regions, more than one-fourth of the reservoirs exhibit notable interannual changes, where climate or human activity may be the primary driving factor. This challenges the conventional wisdom that RDZ regions typically exhibit consistent interannual patterns.

{"title":"How have the drawdown zones of large reservoirs changed over the past two decades in China?","authors":"Jiamin Qin , Shengjun Wu , Zhaofei Wen","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102260","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102260","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>This study focuses on the Reservoir Drawdown Zones (RDZs) of 727 large reservoirs in China.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>The research investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of RDZs from 2000 to 2021, utilizing remote sensing data from the Global Surface Water Dataset (GSWD). It examines trends in RDZ area changes, their spatial distribution across major river basins, and the key drivers, including reservoir operations, climate variability, and human activity.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>According to the findings, RDZ zones constitute around 35 % of a major reservoir's maximum water surface area. Although there are significant fluctuations over time, the total area of RDZs shows an increasing trend on a temporal scale. Prior to 2015, there were some variations in the growth of RDZ areas, which were likely caused by external factors such as operating plans, early reservoir commissioning, and climate change. The capacity of reservoir operations to adjust to climate change was enhanced after 2015 due to the construction and operation of additional large reservoirs, as well as improvements in scheduling and management. As a result, RDZ regions continued to expand at a rate significantly faster than before 2015. Geographically, RDZs are primarily distributed in eastern, central, and southern China, particularly in the Songhua and Liaohe River Basins, the Yangtze River Basin, and the Pearl River Basin. From a spatial perspective, local population density, economic growth, and water resource management techniques, in addition to geographic and climatic factors, may influence the distribution patterns of RDZs across reservoirs of varying sizes. In RDZ regions, more than one-fourth of the reservoirs exhibit notable interannual changes, where climate or human activity may be the primary driving factor. This challenges the conventional wisdom that RDZ regions typically exhibit consistent interannual patterns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102260"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143464033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-reservoirs joint flood control scheduling using a two-layer hedging robust optimization method under uncertain inflows

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102244

Xinting Yu, Yue-Ping Xu, Yuxue Guo, Li Liu

Study region: The Shifeng Creek, situated within the Jiao River basin in East China. Study focus: To address complicated contradictory relationships in multi-reservoir scheduling system, this study develops a new two-layer hedging robust optimization model (TL-HRO) for multi-reservoir scheduling by combining the hedging strategy with robust optimization. The first hedging layer of the TL-HRO model integrates critical hedging relationship that exists between flood control and power generation benefits. The flood control benefits can be subdivided into upstream and downstream benefits, which also have a hedging relationship. The second layer mainly focuses on the interaction of the scheduling for the current period with the future period. Furthermore, considering the impact of uncertain inflows on scheduling, this study employed the vine copula function to extract the multivariate spatial-temporal relationships and perform stochastic simulations. For comparison, a multi-objective robust optimization model (MORO) is constructed where multiple objectives are optimized in parallel. New hydrological insights for the region: The TL-HRO model, through iterative optimization, yielded an optimal scheduling solution that improved total benefits by roughly 58.26 %, covering both flood control and power generation. The results further demonstrated that the TL-HRO model is closer to the optimal solution than the MORO model, particularly during flood seasons, under uncertain inflow conditions. This study serves as a valuable reference for decision-makers in formulating efficient scheduling schemes during flood seasons.

研究区域：狮峰溪，位于华东地区的漖表河流域。研究重点：针对多水库调度系统中复杂的矛盾关系，本研究将对冲策略与鲁棒优化相结合，建立了一种新的多水库调度双层对冲鲁棒优化模型（TL-HRO）。TL-HRO 模型的第一对冲层整合了防洪效益和发电效益之间存在的关键对冲关系。防洪效益可细分为上游效益和下游效益，两者也存在对冲关系。第二层主要关注当期调度与未来调度的相互作用。此外，考虑到不确定流入量对调度的影响，本研究采用了藤状 copula 函数来提取多变量时空关系并进行随机模拟。为了进行比较，构建了一个多目标鲁棒优化模型（MORO），在该模型中，多个目标并行优化。为该地区提供新的水文见解：通过迭代优化，TL-HRO 模型得出了一个最佳调度方案，该方案在防洪和发电方面的总效益提高了约 58.26%。结果进一步证明，TL-HRO 模型比 MORO 模型更接近最佳解决方案，尤其是在汛期，在不确定的流入量条件下。这项研究为决策者制定汛期高效调度方案提供了宝贵的参考。

{"title":"Multi-reservoirs joint flood control scheduling using a two-layer hedging robust optimization method under uncertain inflows","authors":"Xinting Yu, Yue-Ping Xu, Yuxue Guo, Li Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102244","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102244","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Study region: The Shifeng Creek, situated within the Jiao River basin in East China. Study focus: To address complicated contradictory relationships in multi-reservoir scheduling system, this study develops a new two-layer hedging robust optimization model (TL-HRO) for multi-reservoir scheduling by combining the hedging strategy with robust optimization. The first hedging layer of the TL-HRO model integrates critical hedging relationship that exists between flood control and power generation benefits. The flood control benefits can be subdivided into upstream and downstream benefits, which also have a hedging relationship. The second layer mainly focuses on the interaction of the scheduling for the current period with the future period. Furthermore, considering the impact of uncertain inflows on scheduling, this study employed the vine copula function to extract the multivariate spatial-temporal relationships and perform stochastic simulations. For comparison, a multi-objective robust optimization model (MORO) is constructed where multiple objectives are optimized in parallel. New hydrological insights for the region: The TL-HRO model, through iterative optimization, yielded an optimal scheduling solution that improved total benefits by roughly 58.26 %, covering both flood control and power generation. The results further demonstrated that the TL-HRO model is closer to the optimal solution than the MORO model, particularly during flood seasons, under uncertain inflow conditions. This study serves as a valuable reference for decision-makers in formulating efficient scheduling schemes during flood seasons.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102244"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143454128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mass loss of Bayi Glacier in the Heihe River Basin revealed by ground-penetration radar measurements from 2006 to 2023

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102255

Xiaoguang Pang , Liming Jiang , Yuquan Liu , Jie Pan , Jinbiao Zhu , Yi Liu , Bo Yang , Xiaoen Li , Donghai Zheng , Xin Li

Study region

Bayi Glacier in the Heihe River Basin, northeast Tibetan Plateau.

Study focus

Glacier volume and mass balance are crucial to water supplies and human life within the basin in arid areas. This study employs aerial remote sensing and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to conduct a comprehensive surveying on Bayi Glacier, mapping its surface and subglacial topography. Furthermore, multi-source remote sensing datasets are used to quantify the changes in glacier area and thickness from 2006 to 2023. The study aims to map the ice thickness distribution, surface and subglacial topography of Bayi Glacier, investigate the changes in glacier mass, volume, and area over the past 17 years, and analyze the influence of climate factors on the spatiotemporal changes of the glacier.

New hydrological insights for the region

Bayi Glacier is a low-altitude glacier, small in area but high sensitivity to climate change, with a volume of 0.1065 km³ and an area of 2.3569 km². From 2006–2023, the glacier area underwent sustained retreat, decreasing by 0.3266 km² (12.17 %). The GPR measurements collected in 2006 and 2023 revealed that the glacier thickness and volume decreased by an average of 9.04 m (16.68 %) and 0.0465 km³ (30.39 %), respectively. Rising summer temperatures led to a decrease in solid precipitation and an increase in evapotranspiration, which accelerated the ablation of Bayi Glacier. Additionally, the gentle slope of Bayi Glacier increases its exposure to solar radiation, resulting in a more negative glacier mass balance of −0.532 ± 0.0094 m/year, compared to that of the Qilian Mountains’ glaciers ( −0.366 ± 0.3417 m/year).

{"title":"Mass loss of Bayi Glacier in the Heihe River Basin revealed by ground-penetration radar measurements from 2006 to 2023","authors":"Xiaoguang Pang , Liming Jiang , Yuquan Liu , Jie Pan , Jinbiao Zhu , Yi Liu , Bo Yang , Xiaoen Li , Donghai Zheng , Xin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102255","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102255","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>Bayi Glacier in the Heihe River Basin, northeast Tibetan Plateau.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>Glacier volume and mass balance are crucial to water supplies and human life within the basin in arid areas. This study employs aerial remote sensing and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to conduct a comprehensive surveying on Bayi Glacier, mapping its surface and subglacial topography. Furthermore, multi-source remote sensing datasets are used to quantify the changes in glacier area and thickness from 2006 to 2023. The study aims to map the ice thickness distribution, surface and subglacial topography of Bayi Glacier, investigate the changes in glacier mass, volume, and area over the past 17 years, and analyze the influence of climate factors on the spatiotemporal changes of the glacier.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>Bayi Glacier is a low-altitude glacier, small in area but high sensitivity to climate change, with a volume of 0.1065 km<sup>3</sup> and an area of 2.3569 km<sup>2</sup>. From 2006–2023, the glacier area underwent sustained retreat, decreasing by 0.3266 km<sup>2</sup> (12.17 %). The GPR measurements collected in 2006 and 2023 revealed that the glacier thickness and volume decreased by an average of 9.04 m (16.68 %) and 0.0465 km<sup>3</sup> (30.39 %), respectively. Rising summer temperatures led to a decrease in solid precipitation and an increase in evapotranspiration, which accelerated the ablation of Bayi Glacier. Additionally, the gentle slope of Bayi Glacier increases its exposure to solar radiation, resulting in a more negative glacier mass balance of −0.532 ± 0.0094 m/year, compared to that of the Qilian Mountains’ glaciers ( −0.366 ± 0.3417 m/year).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102255"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143453608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effects of long-term meteorological trends on streamflow in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia 1981–2020

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102232

Long Chu, John Williams, Ana Manero, R. Quentin Grafton

Study region

The Northern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.

Study focus

We estimated the impacts of meteorological trends on streamflow over a 40-year period for seven catchments in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin (NMDB), Australia.

New hydrological insights for the region

We found that meteorological trends over the 1981–2020 period explain all the streamflow decline in catchments with little or no irrigation withdrawals, whereas in catchments with substantial irrigation water withdrawals meteorological trends explained only about half the observed decline in streamflow. If the increase in water withdrawals for irrigation over the 2006–2020 period relative to 1981–2000 had, instead, been reallocated to mitigate declines in streamflow over the 1981–2000 period, the average annual gross value of irrigated agriculture (GVIA) in the NMDB would have been reduced by 9–14 %. If a water reallocation over the 2006–2020 period had been undertaken to maintain the same mean ratio of irrigation water withdrawals to streamflow over the 1980–2000 period, GVIA would have declined by 19–29 %. Our results highlight the importance of quantifying and partitioning the effects of long-term meteorological trends on streamflow in semi-arid and arid environments to improve water planning and allocation.

{"title":"Effects of long-term meteorological trends on streamflow in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia 1981–2020","authors":"Long Chu, John Williams, Ana Manero, R. Quentin Grafton","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102232","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102232","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study region</h3><div>The Northern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.</div></div><div><h3>Study focus</h3><div>We estimated the impacts of meteorological trends on streamflow over a 40-year period for seven catchments in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin (NMDB), Australia.</div></div><div><h3>New hydrological insights for the region</h3><div>We found that meteorological trends over the 1981–2020 period explain all the streamflow decline in catchments with little or no irrigation withdrawals, whereas in catchments with substantial irrigation water withdrawals meteorological trends explained only about half the observed decline in streamflow. If the increase in water withdrawals for irrigation over the 2006–2020 period relative to 1981–2000 had, instead, been reallocated to mitigate declines in streamflow over the 1981–2000 period, the average annual gross value of irrigated agriculture (GVIA) in the NMDB would have been reduced by 9–14 %. If a water reallocation over the 2006–2020 period had been undertaken to maintain the same mean ratio of irrigation water withdrawals to streamflow over the 1980–2000 period, GVIA would have declined by 19–29 %. Our results highlight the importance of quantifying and partitioning the effects of long-term meteorological trends on streamflow in semi-arid and arid environments to improve water planning and allocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102232"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143454130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatiotemporal evolution of droughts and floods in the Yellow River Basin: A novel approach combining CMADS-L evaluation, hydroclimatic zonation and CNN-LSTM prediction

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102250

Xianyong Meng , Chen Lin , Jianli Ding , Guoqing Wang , Jianyun Zhang , Hao Wang , Chengbin Chu

Study Region

Yellow River Basin, China, a region of critical ecological and economic significance.

Study Focus

This research presents a novel integrated framework for regional drought-flood analysis and precipitation forecasting by evaluating CMADS-L and ERA5 reanalysis datasets against ground-based observations in the Yellow River Basin. We implement K-means clustering on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) sequences to identify drought-flood regions and validate a CNN-LSTM hybrid model for regional precipitation forecasting, uniquely bridging traditional climate analysis with modern deep learning techniques for enhanced prediction accuracy.

New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Our Analysis Reveals

(1) CMADS demonstrates superior performance over ERA5 in precipitation representation (r = 0.93 vs 0.92; MAE: 9.6 mm vs 17.5 mm; RMSE: 15.8 mm vs 25.9 mm), providing the first comprehensive evaluation of these datasets in complex terrain; (2) We identify three distinct hydroclimatic zones: Northeast (31.6 % area, "wet-dry-wet" sequences, quasi-4.5-year oscillations), Southeast (42.5 %, post-2000 drying trends, quasi-2.3-year cycles), and Western (25.9 %, post-2008 drying, quasi-12-year periodicities); (3) Our novel CNN-LSTM hybrid model achieves unprecedented prediction performance (R²: 0.70–0.85), with highest accuracy in the Western zone due to stable precipitation patterns. This integrated approach significantly advances regional hydroclimate understanding and provides a robust, transferable framework for water resource management under changing climate conditions, offering valuable methodological insights for similar river basins globally.

{"title":"Spatiotemporal evolution of droughts and floods in the Yellow River Basin: A novel approach combining CMADS-L evaluation, hydroclimatic zonation and CNN-LSTM prediction","authors":"Xianyong Meng , Chen Lin , Jianli Ding , Guoqing Wang , Jianyun Zhang , Hao Wang , Chengbin Chu","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102250","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102250","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study Region</h3><div>Yellow River Basin, China, a region of critical ecological and economic significance.</div></div><div><h3>Study Focus</h3><div>This research presents a novel integrated framework for regional drought-flood analysis and precipitation forecasting by evaluating CMADS-L and ERA5 reanalysis datasets against ground-based observations in the Yellow River Basin. We implement K-means clustering on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) sequences to identify drought-flood regions and validate a CNN-LSTM hybrid model for regional precipitation forecasting, uniquely bridging traditional climate analysis with modern deep learning techniques for enhanced prediction accuracy.</div></div><div><h3>New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Our Analysis Reveals</h3><div>(1) CMADS demonstrates superior performance over ERA5 in precipitation representation (r = 0.93 vs 0.92; MAE: 9.6 mm vs 17.5 mm; RMSE: 15.8 mm vs 25.9 mm), providing the first comprehensive evaluation of these datasets in complex terrain; (2) We identify three distinct hydroclimatic zones: Northeast (31.6 % area, \"wet-dry-wet\" sequences, quasi-4.5-year oscillations), Southeast (42.5 %, post-2000 drying trends, quasi-2.3-year cycles), and Western (25.9 %, post-2008 drying, quasi-12-year periodicities); (3) Our novel CNN-LSTM hybrid model achieves unprecedented prediction performance (R²: 0.70–0.85), with highest accuracy in the Western zone due to stable precipitation patterns. This integrated approach significantly advances regional hydroclimate understanding and provides a robust, transferable framework for water resource management under changing climate conditions, offering valuable methodological insights for similar river basins globally.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102250"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143445708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multiobjective risk-based optimization for real-time interbasin water diversion under decomposed chance-constrained total water use

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102252

Ran Mo , Bin Xu , Jianyun Zhang , Guoqing Wang , Ping-an Zhong , Huili Wang , Lingwei Zhu , Jiaying Tan

Study Region

The eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Jiangsu Province, China, a critical national interbasin water diversion system for alleviating water shortages.

Study Focus

This study proposed a risk-based multiobjective optimization model for interbasin water diversion, with chance constraint on total water use. Probabilistic forecasting of local streamflow and water demand was adopted to identify operation risks. Multiobjective stochastic optimization was then introduced to minimize the risks of water shortages and spillages. Furthermore, a decomposition method was proposed to investigate the regime of water use under different hydrological conditions, and the decomposed chance constraint was incorporated into the optimization model. Finally, two indices were designed to assess the value of forecasts and water utilization efficiency.

New Hydrological Insights for the Region

Developing a robust and efficient water diversion strategy based on forecast information is crucial. The proposed method with case study provides the following new hydrological insights: (1) conflict occurs between water diversion, spillage, and shortage, with water shortage and diversion representing major contradictions. (2) high-skilled forecasting helps reduce water diversion (22.3 %), spillage (over 60 %), and shortage (approximately 10 %), indicating considerable value for promoting the benefits of water diversion operations. (3) water use constraint focuses restricting excessive water diversion (30.8 %), exploiting the potential of local water supply, increasing in local water utilization efficiency from 92.8 % to 93.4 %.

{"title":"Multiobjective risk-based optimization for real-time interbasin water diversion under decomposed chance-constrained total water use","authors":"Ran Mo , Bin Xu , Jianyun Zhang , Guoqing Wang , Ping-an Zhong , Huili Wang , Lingwei Zhu , Jiaying Tan","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102252","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102252","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Study Region</h3><div>The eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Jiangsu Province, China, a critical national interbasin water diversion system for alleviating water shortages.</div></div><div><h3>Study Focus</h3><div>This study proposed a risk-based multiobjective optimization model for interbasin water diversion, with chance constraint on total water use. Probabilistic forecasting of local streamflow and water demand was adopted to identify operation risks. Multiobjective stochastic optimization was then introduced to minimize the risks of water shortages and spillages. Furthermore, a decomposition method was proposed to investigate the regime of water use under different hydrological conditions, and the decomposed chance constraint was incorporated into the optimization model. Finally, two indices were designed to assess the value of forecasts and water utilization efficiency.</div></div><div><h3>New Hydrological Insights for the Region</h3><div>Developing a robust and efficient water diversion strategy based on forecast information is crucial. The proposed method with case study provides the following new hydrological insights: (1) conflict occurs between water diversion, spillage, and shortage, with water shortage and diversion representing major contradictions. (2) high-skilled forecasting helps reduce water diversion (22.3 %), spillage (over 60 %), and shortage (approximately 10 %), indicating considerable value for promoting the benefits of water diversion operations. (3) water use constraint focuses restricting excessive water diversion (30.8 %), exploiting the potential of local water supply, increasing in local water utilization efficiency from 92.8 % to 93.4 %.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102252"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143445709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluation of drainage efficiency via street inlets under the influence of terrain slope in the course of pluvial urban flood event

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102243

Yun Xing , Dong Shao , Yifan Yang , Qigen Lin , Zhonghou Xu

Study region: This study is conducted in the northern urbanized region of Fuzhou City, China.

Study focus: This study aims to conduct an investigation into the evolution of drainage efficiency via street inlets over the course of flood events in urbanized areas. Specific emphasis is placed on elucidating the influences imparted by variance in terrain slope, together with the revelation of the underlying mechanisms by which urban terrain slopes influence the dynamics of floodwater in the vicinity of street inlets.

New hydrological insights for region: This study views the drainage efficiency in urbanized area as dynamic variable rather than static parameter and quantify the impacts of terrain slope during different stages of rainfall event. Through hydrodynamic modeling, the responses of drainage effects via street inlets to terrain slope changes in urbanized area are examined. Delayed peak responses in drainage efficiency under steeper terrain slope conditions are revealed, attributable to increased flood flow velocities bypassing street inlets. Localized flow fields demonstrate discernible terrain slope influence upon drainage functionality, with gravity-dominated directional flows disrupting inlet drainage above certain slope threshold. Data-driven regression captures distinct correlation of drainage efficiency with terrain slope and rainfall timing, enabling accurate event-scale predictions for specific urbanized area. The analysis provides novel insights into how terrain slope alters the floodwater flow on urban surface, leading to significant influence on functioning of street inlets.

{"title":"Evaluation of drainage efficiency via street inlets under the influence of terrain slope in the course of pluvial urban flood event","authors":"Yun Xing , Dong Shao , Yifan Yang , Qigen Lin , Zhonghou Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102243","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102243","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><em>Study region:</em> This study is conducted in the northern urbanized region of Fuzhou City, China.</div><div><em>Study focus:</em> This study aims to conduct an investigation into the evolution of drainage efficiency via street inlets over the course of flood events in urbanized areas. Specific emphasis is placed on elucidating the influences imparted by variance in terrain slope, together with the revelation of the underlying mechanisms by which urban terrain slopes influence the dynamics of floodwater in the vicinity of street inlets.</div><div><em>New hydrological insights for region:</em> This study views the drainage efficiency in urbanized area as dynamic variable rather than static parameter and quantify the impacts of terrain slope during different stages of rainfall event. Through hydrodynamic modeling, the responses of drainage effects via street inlets to terrain slope changes in urbanized area are examined. Delayed peak responses in drainage efficiency under steeper terrain slope conditions are revealed, attributable to increased flood flow velocities bypassing street inlets. Localized flow fields demonstrate discernible terrain slope influence upon drainage functionality, with gravity-dominated directional flows disrupting inlet drainage above certain slope threshold. Data-driven regression captures distinct correlation of drainage efficiency with terrain slope and rainfall timing, enabling accurate event-scale predictions for specific urbanized area. The analysis provides novel insights into how terrain slope alters the floodwater flow on urban surface, leading to significant influence on functioning of street inlets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"58 ","pages":"Article 102243"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143454129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0