Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies最新文献_第4页

Integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and land-use changes on future flooding and effective adaptation in the Gin River Basin, Sri Lanka 气候和土地使用变化对斯里兰卡金河流域未来洪水和有效适应的影响的综合评估

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101919

Study region

Gin River Basin, Sri Lanka.

Study focus

The individual and combined effects of climate and land-use changes on flood flow and inundation in the Gin River basin, Sri Lanka, were assessed. Downscaled, bias-corrected future precipitation projected by an ensemble of general circulation models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 emissions scenario was input into a flood model developed using the Rainfall Runoff Inundation (RRI) model. Possible flood mitigation measures were identified based on flood simulations through the integrated assessment incorporating future climate and land-use projections.

New hydrological insights for the region

The basin is projected to receive increased rainfall during the southwest monsoon (9.7 %) and second inter-monsoon (15.7 %) seasons, excluding March and April, in the future. Human settlements will expand in the downstream areas of the basin, while a significant share of agricultural land (27 %) in the basin will be converted into shrublands by 2050. High flows are predicted to increase by 16 % and 4 % at the upstream and downstream gauging stations, respectively, while mean river flow is expected to decrease by 25 % (upstream) and 34 % (downstream). In addition, a 3.5 % increase in annual maximum inundation extent is projected. However, the total inundation extent in the basin can be reduced by 1.3 % by regulating land-use changes, particularly the conversion of agricultural land into riparian forests.

研究区域斯里兰卡金河流域。研究重点评估了气候和土地利用变化对斯里兰卡金河流域洪水流量和淹没的单独和综合影响。在代表性浓度途径 (RCP) 4.5 排放情景下，由一组大气环流模型 (GCM) 预测的未来降水量经过缩减和偏差校正后，被输入到使用降雨径流淹没 (RRI) 模型开发的洪水模型中。该地区新的水文见解预计该流域未来在西南季风季节（9.7%）和第二个季风间歇期（15.7%）（不包括 3 月和 4 月）的降雨量将增加。流域下游地区的人类居住区将扩大，而到 2050 年，流域内相当一部分农田（27%）将转变为灌木林地。据预测，上游和下游测站的大流量将分别增加 16% 和 4%，而河流平均流量将分别减少 25%（上游）和 34%（下游）。此外，预计年最大淹没范围将增加 3.5%。不过，通过控制土地使用的变化，特别是将农田转化为河岸森林，该流域的总淹没范围可减少 1.3%。

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引用次数: 0

Retrieval of spectral slope of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (S275–295) in Laptev Sea 拉普捷夫海色度溶解有机物（S275-295）光谱斜率的检索

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101924

Study region

Laptev Sea

Study focus

The absorption slopes of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in the spectral range of 275–295 nm (S_275–295) is a reliable parameter of the source and transformation of CDOM and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the estuarine environment. Studying S_275–295 in coastal areas can provide important information about CDOM and DOC. This study proposed a new multilayer backpropagation neural network (MBPNN) based on the relationship between S_275–295 and a_CDOM(443) (absorption of CDOM at 443 nm) as a customization function to invert S_275–295. The model accurately estimated S_275–295 with a MAPE and RMSE of 6.12 % and 0.0012 nm⁻¹, respectively, and revealed the spatiotemporal distribution of S_275–295 in the Laptev Sea between 2002 and 2022 (July to September). The effects of influencing factors on temporal and spatial variations of S_275–295 were analyzed.

New hydrological insights for the region

The MBPNN model with a customization function has good performance to invert S_275–295 in Laptev Sea. The S_275–295 in the Laptev Sea ranged from 0.014 to 0.022 nm⁻¹. S_275–295 increased gradually from coastal waters to the open sea. Inter-annual S_275–295 fluctuated, but no significant trend was observed during the study period (2002–2022). S_275–295 was negatively correlated with river discharge (r=-0.41), permafrost thaw depth (r=-0.42), ice extent (r=-0.55) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (r=-0.46) but positively correlated with salinity (r=0.86) and wind speed (r=0.46).

研究区域拉普捷夫海研究重点275-295 nm（S275-295）光谱范围内有色溶解有机物（CDOM）的吸收斜率是河口环境中 CDOM 和溶解有机碳（DOC）来源和转化的可靠参数。研究沿海地区的 S275-295 可以提供有关 CDOM 和 DOC 的重要信息。本研究根据 S275-295 与 aCDOM(443)（CDOM 在 443 纳米波长的吸收率）之间的关系，提出了一种新的多层反向传播神经网络（MBPNN），作为反演 S275-295 的定制函数。该模型准确估算了 S275-295，MAPE 和 RMSE 分别为 6.12 % 和 0.0012 nm-1，并揭示了 2002 年至 2022 年（7 月至 9 月）拉普捷夫海 S275-295 的时空分布。带有定制功能的 MBPNN 模型对拉普捷夫海 S275-295 的反演具有良好的性能。拉普捷夫海的 S275-295 范围为 0.014 至 0.022 nm-1。S275-295 从沿岸水域到公海逐渐增加。在研究期间（2002-2022 年），S275-295 年际波动，但未观察到明显趋势。S275-295 与河流排水量 (r=-0.41)、冻土融化深度 (r=-0.42)、冰冻范围 (r=-0.55) 和归一化差异植被指数 (r=-0.46) 呈负相关，但与盐度 (r=0.86) 和风速 (r=0.46) 呈正相关。

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引用次数: 0

Beyond dams: Assessing integrated water storage in the Shashe catchment, Limpopo River Basin 超越水坝：林波波河流域沙舍集水区综合蓄水评估

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101913

Study region

The Shashe catchment, Limpopo River Basin, Botswana, and Zimbabwe.

Study focus

The Shashe catchment is the third largest flow contributor to the Limpopo River Basin. Water availability in the Shashe catchment is highly seasonal due to high seasonal rainfall variability. The seasonality and inter-annual variability cause shortfalls (demand exceeds the average water availability) in certain months and years. Storage is needed to bridge the seasonal water availability “gap” and mitigate the deficits in drought years, i.e., inter-annual variability. While the need for water storage through grey infrastructure such as dams has long been known, there is growing recognition of the need for approaches to water storage that capitalize on all storage types. However, the current capacity to plan in ways that utilize all storage types is limited. The analyses conducted for this paper assessed the volume and spatial and temporal variability of different storage options – large and small dams, sand dams, soil moisture, and aquifers – in the Shashe catchment of the Limpopo River Basin. An integrated SWAT-MODFLOW model and remote sensing approach were developed for 2015–2020.

New hydrological insights for the region

The total annual water storage in the Shashe catchment is approximately 44,000 Mm³, dominated by groundwater. The annual storage is about 42,000 Mm³ in aquifers, 1500 Mm³ in soil, 700 Mm³ in large dam reservoirs, 45 Mm³ in small dams/ponds, and 0.13 Mm³ in sand dams. There is high seasonality in water storage availability. Soil moisture storage is at its maximum from January to March and lowest from July to September. Dam storage is at its maximum from March to May, and the water storage is relatively stable throughout the year. Aquifer storage is relatively stable during the dry seasons compared to other storage options. Optimizing water use considering the seasonal variation in different storage types could improve water availability and climate resilience.

研究区域博茨瓦纳和津巴布韦林波波河流域沙舍集水区。研究重点沙舍集水区是林波波河流域的第三大流量贡献者。由于季节性降雨变化大，沙舍集水区的供水具有很强的季节性。季节性和年际变化在某些月份和年份会造成缺水（需求量超过平均可用水量）。需要通过蓄水来弥补季节性供水 "缺口"，缓解干旱年份（即年际变化）的缺水问题。虽然通过水坝等灰色基础设施进行蓄水的必要性早已为人所知，但越来越多的人认识到需要利用各种蓄水方式进行蓄水。然而，目前利用所有蓄水类型进行规划的能力有限。本文进行的分析评估了林波波河流域沙舍集水区不同蓄水方案（大型和小型水坝、沙坝、土壤水分和含水层）的水量和时空变化情况。为 2015-2020 年开发了 SWAT-MODFLOW 模型和遥感综合方法。该地区的新水文见解沙舍集水区的年总蓄水量约为 44,000 立方米，以地下水为主。含水层年蓄水量约为 42,000 立方米，土壤年蓄水量约为 1500 立方米，大坝水库年蓄水量约为 700 立方米，小坝/池塘年蓄水量约为 45 立方米，沙坝年蓄水量约为 0.13 立方米。储水量的季节性很强。1 月至 3 月土壤水分储量最大，7 月至 9 月储量最小。水坝的蓄水量在 3 月至 5 月期间最大，全年蓄水量相对稳定。与其他蓄水方案相比，含水层在旱季的蓄水量相对稳定。考虑到不同蓄水类型的季节性变化，优化用水可以提高水的可用性和气候适应能力。

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引用次数: 0

On the role of lake level management in modulating climate change impacts on perialpine lakes 湖泊水位管理在调节气候变化对围岩湖泊影响方面的作用

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101914

Study region

Four perialpine lakes in Switzerland, with different degrees of lake level management.

Study focus

Alpine regions are particularly sensitive to climate change due to the pronounced effect on snow and glacial melt. In this context, large perialpine lakes play a crucial role in modulating climate change impacts on water resources, which brings together diverse interests. However, climate change studies on river systems rarely include lakes or lake level management. An open question is how to incorporate lake level management effects into hydrologic simulations to project climate change impacts. We combine the hydrologic model PREVAH with the hydrodynamic model MIKE11 to simulate lake level and outflow scenarios from 1981 to 2099, using the Swiss climate change scenarios CH2018.

New hydrological insights for the region

The hydrological projections at the end of the century show pronounced seasonal changes in lake levels, characterised by an increase in winter and a decrease in summer when water demand is highest. Without climate mitigation measures, this summer decrease ranges from −0.04 m for a regulated lake to −0.4 m for an unregulated lake. In addition, the simulations indicate more frequent drought events. The projected changes intensify with time and missing climate mitigation measures. Future work could focus on interannual variability to explore regulatory strategies under changing conditions.

研究区域瑞士的四个围阿尔卑斯湖泊，湖泊水位管理程度各不相同。研究重点阿尔卑斯山地区对气候变化尤为敏感，因为它对积雪和冰川融化有明显影响。在这种情况下，大型围阿尔卑斯湖泊在调节气候变化对水资源的影响方面发挥着至关重要的作用，因此汇集了各种不同的利益。然而，有关河流系统的气候变化研究很少包括湖泊或湖泊水位管理。一个悬而未决的问题是如何将湖泊水位管理效应纳入水文模拟，以预测气候变化的影响。我们将水文模型 PREVAH 与水动力模型 MIKE11 结合起来，利用瑞士气候变化情景 CH2018 模拟了 1981 年至 2099 年的湖泊水位和出流情景。在不采取气候减缓措施的情况下，夏季水位下降的幅度为-0.04 米（有管制的湖泊）和-0.4 米（无管制的湖泊）。此外，模拟结果表明干旱事件更加频繁。随着时间的推移和气候减缓措施的缺失，预计的变化会加剧。未来的工作可侧重于年际变化，以探索变化条件下的调控策略。

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引用次数: 0

Revealing the intricate relationship: Droughts and typhoons in Taiwan using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 揭示错综复杂的关系：利用标准化降水指数（SPI）分析台湾的干旱和台风

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101917

Study region

Taiwan

Study focus

This study examines the relationship between typhoon parameters and droughts in Taiwan, particularly following the severe drought of 2020–2021. Using tropical cyclone best-track and satellite-based precipitation datasets from 1981 to 2020, we analyzed anomalies, correlation matrices, and wavelet coherence. Seasonal variations and long-term trends were also detected.

New hydrological insights for the region

We found a positive correlation between typhoon characteristics (count, duration, length, wind speed) in Taiwan and drought occurrence and severity, especially over 2–4 year periods. Conversely, negative relationships were observed between typhoon duration and length in the Western North Pacific (WNP) and drought indices in Taiwan, influenced by large-scale atmospheric patterns. Typhoon duration and length in the WNP had a greater impact on Taiwan's drought than typhoon quantity, showing significant coherence with long-term drought over multi-year to decadal timescales. Seasonally, drought intensity peaked in central and southeastern Taiwan during late winter and early spring when typhoons were absent, in contrast to the rainy summer typhoon season. Spatially, increasing drought trends were identified in central and southern Taiwan, while northern regions exhibited decreasing dryness, potentially linked to the concentration of typhoon landing points in the north. This study underscores the complex relationships between drought severity in Taiwan and typhoon behavior in both the vicinity of Taiwan and the WNP.

研究区域台湾研究重点本研究探讨了台风参数与台湾干旱之间的关系，尤其是在 2020-2021 年的严重干旱之后。利用 1981 年至 2020 年的热带气旋最佳路径和卫星降水数据集，我们分析了异常、相关矩阵和小波相干性。我们发现台湾的台风特征（台风次数、持续时间、长度、风速）与干旱发生率和严重程度之间存在正相关关系，尤其是在 2-4 年期间。相反，受大尺度大气模式的影响，西北太平洋（WNP）的台风持续时间和长度与台湾的干旱指数呈负相关。与台风数量相比，西北太平洋台风持续时间和长度对台湾干旱的影响更大，在多年至十年时间尺度上与长期干旱有显著的一致性。从季节上看，台湾中部和东南部的干旱强度在没有台风的冬末春初达到高峰，与夏季台风多雨季节形成鲜明对比。从空间上看，台湾中部和南部的干旱程度呈上升趋势，而北部地区的干旱程度则呈下降趋势，这可能与台风登陆点集中在北部有关。这项研究强调了台湾干旱严重程度与台湾附近地区和世界自然保护联盟台风行为之间的复杂关系。

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引用次数: 0

Quantification of sector-specific groundwater withdrawals considering water diversion projects in the Hebei Province, China 考虑到河北省的引水工程，量化特定行业的地下水取水量

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101923

Study area

Hebei Province, China

Study focus

Accurate assessment of sector-specific groundwater withdrawals (GWW) is fundamental for targeted groundwater management policies, particularly in regions suffering from severe groundwater over-extraction. Due to the lack of statistical data and the coarse resolution of water supply patterns and GWW, previous studies couldn’t well quantify the GWW where the impact of inter-basin water diversion projects was also neglected. Here we proposed a methodology to simulate sectoral GWW based on flux balance in consideration of the influence of inter-basin water diversion projects.

New hydrological insights for the study region

A case study in Hebei Province, where groundwater is severely over extracted, was used to validate our methodology. Our results showed that the gridded GWW calculations are well aligned with the statistical data from the Hebei Water Resources Bulletin (WRB) at both provincial and municipal levels, with correlation coefficients (R) above 0.9 and normalized root mean squared errors (NRMSE) below 0.1. County-level GWW estimates also match with data from the Department of Water Resources of Hebei Province for 2013 and 2018, with NRMSE around 0.2. Piecewise Linear Regression (PLR) analysis of sectoral GWW further reveals that GWW is quickly declined when water diversion projects or policies are implemented. Together our findings underscore a significant role of water resource engineering and policies in alleviating groundwater over-extraction.

研究地区中国河北省研究重点准确评估特定行业的地下水取水量（GWW）是制定有针对性的地下水管理政策的基础，尤其是在地下水超采严重的地区。由于缺乏统计数据以及供水模式和 GWW 的分辨率较低，以往的研究无法很好地量化 GWW，其中跨流域引水工程的影响也被忽视。在此，我们提出了一种基于通量平衡并考虑跨流域引水工程影响的部门 GWW 模拟方法。结果表明，网格化 GWW 计算结果与《河北省水资源公报》（WRB）中的省级和市级统计数据非常吻合，相关系数（R）高于 0.9，归一化均方根误差（NRMSE）低于 0.1。县级 GWW 估算值也与河北省水利厅 2013 年和 2018 年的数据相吻合，归一化均方根误差在 0.2 左右。对部门 GWW 的片断线性回归（PLR）分析进一步表明，当实施引水工程或政策时，GWW 会迅速下降。我们的研究结果强调了水资源工程和政策在缓解地下水超采方面的重要作用。

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引用次数: 0

Climate variability and hydrology impacts in east Africa’s Rwenzori Mountains 东非鲁文佐里山脉的气候多变性和水文影响

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101922

Study region

The eastern flank of the 4 km Rwenzori Mountains and the Mobuku catchment 0.25–0.4 N, 29.85–30.1E are the geographic area for detailed analysis.

Research focus

Hydro-climate variability is studied using high resolution satellite- and model- assimilated products in the period 1980–2023. The Mobuku catchment receives rainfall of 3–6 mm/day which generates an eastward discharge of 100 m³/s that declines rapidly downstream, thereby limiting hydro-power availability.

New insights

Long-term trends in cloud fraction and potential evaporation reveal a tendency for drying associated with increasing easterly winds, subsidence near the mountain top, and warming of +.04 C/year that is melting glaciers. These constrain runoff on the eastern flank of the Rwenzori Mountains. Low river flows in Dec-Mar correspond with dry air intrusions from the northeast. High river flows in Jul-Nov are modulated by sea temperatures in the Indian Ocean that oscillate east-west at ∼3 year interval. Improved understanding of climate variability will contribute to better management of Uganda’s hydro-power resources.

研究区域北纬 0.25-0.4 度，东经 29.85-30.1 度，4 公里长的鲁文佐里山脉东侧和莫布库集水区是进行详细分析的地理区域。研究重点利用 1980-2023 年期间的高分辨率卫星和模型同化产品研究水文气候的变异性。新见解云量和潜在蒸发量的长期趋势表明，随着东风的增加、山顶附近的沉降以及冰川融化导致的每年+.04摄氏度的变暖，气候趋于干燥。这些因素制约了鲁文佐里山脉东侧的径流量。12 月至 3 月的低河水流量与来自东北部的干燥空气入侵相对应。7月至11月的高河水流量则受印度洋海温的影响，印度洋海温以3年左右的间隔向东西方向摆动。加强对气候多变性的了解将有助于更好地管理乌干达的水电资源。

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引用次数: 0

Analysis on the temporal scaling behavior of extreme rainfall in Korean Peninsula based on high-resolution radar-based precipitation data 基于高分辨率雷达降水数据的朝鲜半岛极端降雨时标行为分析

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101915

Study region

South Korea

Study focus

To overcome the limitations of relying solely on ground precipitation gauges, this study utilizes radar precipitation data to investigate the temporal scaling behavior of extreme rainfall values. Maximum precipitation and extreme quantile values for each grid point were calculated using the rolling-window summation method. The investigation focuses on the relationship between maximum precipitation and duration.

New hydrological insights for the region

The study's findings are as follows: (1) Radar estimates higher maximum precipitation values than ground gauges, especially in mountainous areas with sparse gauge coverage; (2) The maximum precipitation-duration relationship deviates from a power-law relationship primarily due to unusual short-duration extreme rainfall events; (3) Lower-quantile high rainfall values show a stronger power-law relationship influenced by various rainfall mechanisms; (4) The East Asian rainy season induces greater extreme rainfall for durations up to 6 h, while longer durations are dominated by typhoons, indicating different flood risks; (5) Maximum precipitation values for most durations are observed on Jeju Island, primarily caused by typhoon events. Considering that climate change is expected to induce a northward shift in typhoon paths, appropriate flood defense measures should be implemented, especially in the southern part of the Korean Peninsula. These findings highlight how different observation methods can significantly impact flood risk assessment and the design of key hydraulic structures.

研究区域南韩研究重点为了克服单纯依靠地面降水量测量的局限性，本研究利用雷达降水数据来研究极端降水值的时间缩放行为。采用滚动窗口求和法计算每个网格点的最大降水量和极端量值。研究重点是最大降水量与持续时间之间的关系：(1) 雷达估算的最大降水值高于地面测站，尤其是在测站覆盖范围稀少的山区；(2) 最大降水量与持续时间的关系偏离幂律关系，主要是由于不寻常的短时极端降雨事件；(3) 受各种降雨机制的影响，下阙高降水值显示出更强的幂律关系；(4)东亚雨季导致持续时间不超过 6 小时的极端降雨量更大，而持续时间更长的极端降雨主要由台风造成，这表明洪水风险不同；(5)大部分持续时间的最大降水值出现在济州岛，主要由台风事件造成。考虑到气候变化将导致台风路径北移，应采取适当的洪水防御措施，尤其是在朝鲜半岛南部。这些研究结果突显了不同的观测方法如何对洪水风险评估和关键水力结构的设计产生重大影响。

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引用次数: 0

Strontium isotope analysis identifies the source and transport of fluvial suspended solids in the Fuji River Basin, Japan 锶同位素分析确定了日本富士河流域河流悬浮固体的来源和迁移情况

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-08-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101920

Study region

The middle and lower reaches of the Fuji River system, Central Japan

Study focus

The increase in turbidity over the last decade is considered a major cause of habitat degradation of aquatic organisms in the Fuji River and the adjacent coastal area of Suruga Bay. This study identifies the source and fate of suspended solids (SS) in the Fuji River system based on an investigation of the isotopic composition of strontium (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) in river water, SS, and fluvial sediments.

New hydrological insights for the region

The Sr isotope mass-balance model revealed that the strong turbidity (SS > 500 mg L⁻¹) observed in a major tributary system—the Hayakawa River—accounted for 65 % of riverine SS in the Fuji River; however, the Hayakawa River water contributed only 24 % to the total river water flow in the Fuji River. In contrast, riverbed sediments in the Fuji River contained only 11 % of the sediments derived from the Hayakawa River system. These results suggest that the Hayakawa River SS could be a major source of turbidity in the Fuji River but most of it flowing into Suruga Bay without significant sedimentation. The present Sr isotope ratio, depends on host rock types in geologically heterogeneous catchments, can be used for fingerprinting of fluvial SS and improving ecosystem management planning in watersheds susceptible to frequent soil erosion and landslides.

研究区域日本中部富士河水系的中下游研究重点过去十年来，富士河和邻近的骏河湾沿岸地区的浊度增加被认为是水生生物栖息地退化的主要原因。本研究根据对河水、悬浮固体 (SS) 和河道沉积物中锶（87Sr/86Sr）同位素组成的调查，确定了富士河系统中悬浮固体 (SS) 的来源和归宿。锶同位素质量平衡模型显示，在富士河的主要支流早川中观察到的强浊度（SS > 500 mg L-1）占富士河河水 SS 的 65%；然而，早川河水仅占富士河河水总流量的 24%。相比之下，富士河河床沉积物中只有 11% 的沉积物来自早川水系。这些结果表明，早川河 SS 可能是富士河浊度的主要来源，但大部分流入骏河湾的早川河 SS 并没有明显的沉积作用。目前的锶同位素比值取决于地质异质流域的主岩类型，可用于对河川 SS 进行指纹识别，并改善易受频繁水土流失和滑坡影响的流域的生态系统管理规划。

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引用次数: 0

Novel framework for quantifying dam construction, climate change, and land-use change impacts on flow regime: A case study in Ganjiang River Basin, China 量化大坝建设、气候变化和土地利用变化对水流状态影响的新框架：中国赣江流域案例研究

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101918

Study region

This study was conducted in the Ganjiang River Basin, situated in eastern China.

Study focus

Previous studies often quantified the impacts of climate change, land use, and dam construction on flow regime by only focusing on two of these factors at one time. In addition, the previous method used to quantify the deviation in the timing of annual extreme water conditions has a flaw. Therefore, this study improved the formula for calculating the deviation in the timing of annual extreme water conditions. Moreover, we proposed a novel framework for quantifying the impacts of dam construction, climate change, and land-use change on flow regime.

New hydrological insights for the region

The study observed significant alterations in the flow regime of the Ganjiang River Basin. These modifications were predominantly influenced by dam construction and climate change. Dam construction led to a notable increase in dry season flow and minimum flow indicators, while decreasing maximum flow indicators. Conversely, climate change resulted in a reduction of minimum flow indicators and an increase in maximum flow indicators. Climate change has also led to an increase in the frequency and duration of flow pulses. Intriguingly, dam construction and climate change played offsetting roles for 77 % of the indicators. Considering the global climate change context, judicious dam operation could to mitigate the impact of climate change on the flow regime.

研究区域本研究在位于中国东部的赣江流域进行。研究重点以往的研究通常只对气候变化、土地利用和大坝建设对水流状态的影响进行量化，在同一时间只关注其中两个因素。此外，以往用于量化年度极端水情时间偏差的方法也存在缺陷。因此，本研究改进了年度极端水情时间偏差的计算公式。此外，我们还提出了一个新的框架，用于量化大坝建设、气候变化和土地利用变化对水流状态的影响。对该地区水文的新认识该研究观察到赣江流域的水流状态发生了显著变化。这些变化主要受到大坝建设和气候变化的影响。大坝建设导致枯水期流量和最小流量指标明显增加，而最大流量指标则有所减少。相反，气候变化导致最小流量指标减少，最大流量指标增加。气候变化还导致流量脉冲的频率和持续时间增加。耐人寻味的是，在 77% 的指标中，大坝建设和气候变化起到了相互抵消的作用。考虑到全球气候变化的背景，明智的大坝运行可以减轻气候变化对水流机制的影响。

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