Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies最新文献_第4页

Runoff simulation of the Kaidu River Basin based on the GR4J-6 and GR4J-6-LSTM models 基于 GR4J-6 和 GR4J-6-LSTM 模型的开都河流域径流模拟

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102034

Jing Yang , Fulong Chen , Aihua Long , Huaiwei Sun , Chaofei He , Bo Liu

Study region

The Kaidu River Basin originates from the southern slope of the Tienshan Mountains in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China.

Study focus

Accurate runoff simulation and prediction significantly affect flood control, drought resilience, and water resource allocation decisions. This study establishes the GR4J-6 model (modèle du Génie Rural à 4 paramètres Journalier-6, including a snowmelt module) and integrates it with the LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) model to construct the hybrid GR4J-6-LSTM model and enhance the simulation accuracy of snowmelt runoff. A case study is conducted in the Kaidu River Basin to demonstrate the applicability of these models in cold and arid regions. The accuracy of the GR4J-6, LSTM, and GR4J-6-LSTM models is evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) metrics. In addition, the contributions of each feature variable in the models are analyzed using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method to enhance the reliability of the results.

New hydrological insights for the region

The GR4J-6 model demonstrated good applicability in the Kaidu River Basin, with NSE, KGE, and RMSE values of 0.69, 0.79, and 39.39 m³/s during the validation period, respectively. The hybrid model GR4J-6-LSTM exhibited the highest comprehensive accuracy among all the models, with NSE, KGE, and RMSE values of 0.84, 0.87, and 28.79 m³/s, respectively. In the LSTM model, temperature and precipitation were found to significantly influence the simulated runoff, indicating that higher temperature and precipitation lead to increased runoff. In the GR4J-6-LSTM model, Tmin (minimum temperature) and the hydrological feature variable Qsim exhibited a strong positive correlation with simulated runoff, as Tmin and Qsim increased, they promoted stronger flow production. This study provides a framework for runoff simulation in snowmelt river basins, offering a reference for projecting extreme hydrological events under climate change.

研究区域开都河流域发源于中国新疆维吾尔自治区天山南坡。研究重点准确的径流模拟和预测对防洪、抗旱和水资源分配决策具有重要影响。本研究建立了 GR4J-6 模型（modèle du Génie Rural à 4 paramètres Journalier-6，包括融雪模块），并将其与 LSTM（Long Short-Term Memory）模型相结合，构建了 GR4J-6-LSTM 混合模型，提高了融雪径流的模拟精度。在开都河流域进行的案例研究证明了这些模型在寒冷干旱地区的适用性。使用 Nash-Sutcliffe 效率（NSE）、Kling-Gupta 效率（KGE）和均方根误差（RMSE）指标评估了 GR4J-6、LSTM 和 GR4J-6-LSTM 模型的精度。GR4J-6 模型在验证期间的 NSE、KGE 和 RMSE 值分别为 0.69、0.79 和 39.39 立方米/秒，在开都河流域表现出良好的适用性。在所有模型中，混合模型 GR4J-6-LSTM 的综合精度最高，NSE、KGE 和 RMSE 值分别为 0.84、0.87 和 28.79 m3/s。在 LSTM 模型中，温度和降水对模拟径流有显著影响，表明温度和降水越高，径流越大。在 GR4J-6-LSTM 模型中，Tmin（最低气温）和水文特征变量 Qsim 与模拟径流呈强正相关，随着 Tmin 和 Qsim 的增加，它们会促进更强的流量产生。这项研究为融雪河流域的径流模拟提供了一个框架，为预测气候变化下的极端水文事件提供了参考。

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引用次数: 0

Characterization of drought propagation over the Tibetan Plateau 青藏高原干旱传播的特点

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102035

Di Wu , Zeyong Hu

Study region

This study was carried out on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which contains multiple important ecosystems, is the source of many rivers in China, and is experiencing significant climate change.

Study focus

Clarifying drought propagation characteristics is crucial for understanding the mechanism of drought development and benefiting drought mitigation and early warning schemes. However, there is currently a notable lack of research on droughts on the TP and drought propagation characteristics on the TP have yet to be investigated. In this study, we investigated drought propagation time, probability, threshold, and the climatic factors associated with drought development based on the copula probability model and correlation, Bayesian network, and attribution analyses, allowing us to fill current research gaps.

New hydrological insights for the region

The research framework proposed in this study effectively reflected the characteristics of drought propagation. Our results showed that seasonality and aridity controlled the propagation time from meteorological drought (MD) to agricultural drought (AD), i.e., the time was shortest in summer (2.311.0 months) and in the humid zone (2.37 months); the same pattern was found for the propagation of MD to hydrological drought (HD), with the propagation time being 2.33.0 months in summer and 2.36 months in humid zones. The propagation probability for both AD and HD generally increased synchronously with the severity of MD, and also exhibited seasonal patterns, with the highest probability values in summer (0.590.90 for AD and 0.510.82 for HD). The highest propagation thresholds were also found in summer (−1.68 to −1.09 for AD and −1.68 to −1.36 for HD). The trends of both propagation time and probability were significant, and the probability of HD exhibited significant downward trends (−0.074 to −0.030/decade) across the TP. Precipitation was the dominant factor controlling the development of drought in most cases; however, other climatic factors, such as maximum temperature, solar radiation, and specific humidity, contributed 14.0 %43.9 % of the variances of AD and HD.

研究区域本研究在青藏高原（TP）进行，该地区包含多个重要生态系统，是中国许多河流的源头，并且正在经历显著的气候变化。研究重点阐明干旱传播特征对于了解干旱发展机制以及有利于干旱缓解和预警计划至关重要。然而，目前对大埔干旱的研究明显不足，大埔干旱的传播特征尚待研究。在本研究中，我们基于 copula 概率模型和相关性、贝叶斯网络和归因分析，研究了干旱传播时间、概率、阈值以及与干旱发展相关的气候因子，从而填补了目前的研究空白。研究结果表明，季节性和干旱程度控制了气象干旱（MD）向农业干旱（AD）的传播时间，即夏季（2.311.0 个月）和湿润区（2.37 个月）的传播时间最短；气象干旱向水文干旱（HD）的传播也存在同样的规律，夏季的传播时间为 2.33.0 个月，湿润区为 2.36 个月。旱灾（AD）和水文干旱（HD）的传播概率一般与旱灾（MD）的严重程度同步增加，并呈现出季节性规律，夏季的概率值最高（旱灾（AD）为 0.590.90，水文干旱（HD）为 0.510.82）。夏季的传播阈值也最高（AD 为-1.68 至-1.09，HD 为-1.68 至-1.36）。传播时间和传播概率的趋势都很显著，HD 的传播概率在整个热带降雨过程中呈显著的下降趋势（-0.074 至-0.030/十年）。在大多数情况下，降水是控制干旱发生的主导因子；然而，其他气候因子，如最高气温、太阳辐射和比湿度，也占旱灾和旱灾概率变异的 14.0 %43.9 %。

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引用次数: 0

Satellite observations of surface water dynamics and channel migration in the Yellow River since the 1980s 20 世纪 80 年代以来黄河地表水动态和河道迁移的卫星观测结果

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102029

Panpan Chen , Zhigang Cao , Chen Yang , Zhiqiang Qiu , Xingjian Guo , Hongtao Duan

Study region

the Yellow River (YR) in China.

Study focus

Due to climate change and human activities, YR channel morphology has undergone significant spatiotemporal variations. Yet, a comprehensive understanding of channel migration in YR and its driving factors remains unclear. Here, we developed a multi-index water extraction method to track the changes in surface water and river channel migration of YR based on Landsat imagery since the 1980s.

New hydrological insights for the region

We find that the average surface water area of YR over the past four decades is 4013 km², with 73.5 % of permanent surface water. Notably, the surface water extent has experienced a 9 % increase since the 1980s, while the river channel has undergone a 12.2 % decrease. The YR channel’s centerline exhibits diverse change patterns across the entire basin, which can be broadly categorized into six types ranging from unchanged to reverse migration. We identify that climate, particularly temperature and precipitation, contributed 71 % of channel changes in the upper reaches, while 65 % of changes in the lower reaches are from human activities, including reservoir operations and water management policies. Our results unveil the variations in water extent and channel migration of the YR, offering new insights into the interactions between channel migration and climate change and human activities in the YR over the past four decades.

研究区域中国黄河。研究重点由于气候变化和人类活动，黄河河道形态发生了显著的时空变化。然而，对黄河河道迁移及其驱动因素的全面了解仍不清楚。在此，我们开发了一种多指标水量提取方法，基于大地遥感卫星图像跟踪自 20 世纪 80 年代以来雅江地表水的变化和河道的迁移。值得注意的是，自 20 世纪 80 年代以来，地表水面积增加了 9%，而河道面积却减少了 12.2%。在整个流域内，YR 河道中心线呈现出多种变化模式，大致可分为六种类型，从不变到反向迁移不等。我们发现，气候，尤其是温度和降水，占上游河道变化的 71%，而下游河道变化的 65% 来自人类活动，包括水库运行和水资源管理政策。我们的研究结果揭示了雅鲁藏布江水域范围和河道迁移的变化，为了解过去 40 年雅鲁藏布江河道迁移与气候变化和人类活动之间的相互作用提供了新的视角。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of the source and mechanisms of groundwater recharge for the southern sections of the western Afar rift margin and associated rift floor 评估阿法尔裂谷西缘南段及相关裂谷底的地下水补给来源和机制

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102037

Dereje Gidafie , Dessie Nedaw , Tilahun Azagegn , Bekele Abebe , Alper Baba

Study area

Southern Sections of Western Afar rift margin and associated rift floor.

Study focus

The purpose of this study is to identify the source and mechanisms of groundwater recharge based on geological, hydrochemical, and environmental isotope studies.

New hydrogeological insights

The investigation illustrate that the columnar jointed basalt was extended from the plateau to the rift margin. In addition, transverse structures trending NW-SE and NE-SW connect the plateau to the rift margin and the marginal grabens to the rift floor. The hydrochemical interpretations with EC and TDS shows that the groundwater from the plateau has evolved from Ca-dominated and slightly mineralized to Na-dominated and highly mineralized to the rift floor. Isotopically, the deep groundwater systems are depleted in the entire physiography in contrast to the shallow groundwater systems. Radon measurements are higher at the outlets of the marginal grabens and between the rift margin and the rift floor, suggesting groundwater feeds the river. A comprehensive analysis of the aforementioned results suggests that the deep circulating groundwater is recharged in the plateau and escarpment and chemically altered with increasing depth and along its preferential flow path into the rift floor. Therefore, the plateau area is the main source of recharge for the western Afar rift margin and associated rift floor, due to the presence of preferential pathways, mainly the columnar jointed basalts and cross-structures.

研究区域西阿法尔裂谷边缘南段及相关裂谷底。研究重点本研究的目的是根据地质、水化学和环境同位素研究，确定地下水补给的来源和机制。此外，西北-东南和东北-西南走向的横向结构将高原与裂谷边缘、边缘地堑与裂谷底连接起来。用 EC 和 TDS 进行的水化学解释表明，高原地下水已从 Ca 主导和轻微矿化演变为 Na 主导和高度矿化，直至裂谷底。从同位素角度看，与浅层地下水系统相比，深层地下水系统在整个地貌中都是贫化的。在边缘地堑的出口以及裂谷边缘和裂谷底之间，氡的测量值较高，这表明地下水为河流提供了水源。对上述结果的综合分析表明，深层循环地下水在高原和崖壁得到补给，并随着深度的增加和进入裂谷底的优先流路而发生化学变化。因此，高原地区是阿法尔裂谷西缘和相关裂谷底的主要补给源，原因是存在优先路径，主要是柱状节理玄武岩和交叉结构。

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引用次数: 0

Quantitative characterization, spatiotemporal evolution, and analysis of driving factors of daily dry-wet abrupt alternation: A case study of the Ganjiang River Basin 日干湿骤变的定量特征、时空演变及驱动因素分析：赣江流域案例研究

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102030

Guangxu Liu , Aicun Xiang , Zhiwei Wan , Longqi Zhang , Jie Wu , Zheng Xie

Study Region

This study focuses on the Ganjiang River Basin, a major tributary of the Poyang Lake located in southern China.

Study Focus

With the growing frequency of extreme weather events driven by climate change, there is increased attention on compound disasters such as Dry-Wet Abrupt Alternation (DWAA). This study aims to quantify and define DWAA in the Ganjiang River Basin by developing and applying a DWAA Index (DWAAI) using a percentile threshold method. The objective is to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics and patterns of DWAA in the region. Precipitation data from 12 meteorological stations were analyzed to track these events from 1970 to 2019.

New Hydrological Insights For the region

The results of this study provide new insights into DWAA dynamics in the Ganjiang River Basin. Key findings include: (i) The DWAAI effectively captures the extremes of Dry-Wet Abrupt Alternations, especially at the 1st and 99th percentiles; (ii) The basin experienced 37–48 dry-to-wet events (DtWs) during the study period, with higher frequencies observed in the central-eastern, western, and northern mountainous areas, and lower frequencies in the southern regions; (iii) Wet-to-dry events (WtDs) were less common than DtWs and exhibited a distinct spatial and temporal shift from the southern mountains toward the central basin; (iv) Temperature was identified as the dominant factor influencing DWAAI changes, while large-scale atmospheric patterns such as AO, ENSO, PDO, and Sunspot activity showed insignificant correlations. These findings offer critical insights for improving water resource management and climate adaptation efforts in the region.

研究区域本研究的重点是位于中国南部的鄱阳湖主要支流赣江流域。研究重点随着气候变化导致的极端天气事件日益频繁，干湿急剧交替（DWAA）等复合灾害日益受到关注。本研究旨在采用百分位阈值法，通过开发和应用干湿交替指数（DWAAI），量化和定义赣江流域的干湿交替。目的是研究该地区 DWAA 的时空特征和模式。本研究的结果为赣江流域的 DWAA 动态提供了新的见解。主要发现包括(i) DWAAI 有效捕捉了干湿急剧交替的极端值，尤其是第 1 和第 99 百分位数；(ii) 在研究期间，流域经历了 37-48 次干转湿事件（DtWs），在中东部、西部和北部山区观测到的频率较高，而在南部地区观测到的频率较低；(iv) 温度被认为是影响 DWAAI 变化的主导因素，而诸如 AO、厄尔尼诺/南方涛动、PDO 和太阳黑子活动等大尺度大气模式则显示出不明显的相关性。这些发现为改善该地区的水资源管理和气候适应工作提供了重要启示。

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引用次数: 0

Predicting future evapotranspiration based on remote sensing and deep learning 基于遥感和深度学习预测未来蒸散量

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102023

Xin Zheng , Sha Zhang , Shanshan Yang , Jiaojiao Huang , Xianye Meng , Jiahua Zhang , Yun Bai

Study region

The watersheds of the four flux sites in the United States were selected as the study areas for this research.

Study focus

This study validates the efficiency of Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Network (ConvLSTM) models for site-scale

{ET}_{a}

prediction. We enhanced the ConvLSTM model by adding a Spatial Pyramid Pooling module (SPPM) and a Multi-head Self-Attention Module (MSA-Module), creating the Multi-head Self-Attention ConvLSTM (MSA-ConvLSTM) model, which we applied to predicting regional-scale actual evapotranspiration (

{ET}_{a}

). This study aims to investigate whether the MSA-ConvLSTM model can enhance the accuracy of predicting regional-scale

{ET}_{a}

, considering multiple feature variables. Furthermore, we evaluated different performance indicators, discussed possible reasons for errors in regional

{ET}_{a}

prediction, and conducted sensitivity analysis of the model characteristics.

New hydrological insights for the region

The MSA-ConvLSTM model accurately predicts the future state of

{ET}_{a}

. The average

R^{2}

was 0.81, which is 11.6 % and 5.5 % higher than those of the ConvLSTM and Self-Attention ConvLSTM (SA-ConvLSTM) models, respectively. The average RMSE is 11.94 mm/m, which is 21.5 % and 13.7 % lower than ConvLSTM and SA-ConvLSTM, respectively. The average MAE is 9.46 mm/m, which is 21.3 % and 13 % lower than ConvLSTM and SA-ConvLSTM, respectively. Incorporating of a multi-head self-attention module enhances the model’s capacity for comprehensive understanding of input data features. This improvement allows the model to better adapt to feature relationships at varying scales and angles, enhancing its representational capacity and enabling effective adaptation to complex environmental changes.

研究区域选择美国四个通量站点的流域作为本研究的研究区域。研究重点本研究验证了卷积长短期记忆网络（ConvLSTM）模型在站点尺度蒸散发预测中的效率。我们通过添加空间金字塔汇集模块（SPPM）和多头自注意力模块（MSA-Module）增强了 ConvLSTM 模型，创建了多头自注意力 ConvLSTM（MSA-ConvLSTM）模型，并将其应用于预测区域尺度的实际蒸散量（ETa）。本研究旨在探讨 MSA-ConvLSTM 模型能否在考虑多个特征变量的情况下提高预测区域尺度 ETa 的准确性。此外，我们还评估了不同的性能指标，讨论了区域 ETa 预测误差的可能原因，并对模型特征进行了敏感性分析。 MSA-ConvLSTM 模型准确预测了 ETa 的未来状态。平均 R2 为 0.81，分别比 ConvLSTM 和 Self-Attention ConvLSTM（SA-ConvLSTM）模型高 11.6 % 和 5.5 %。平均 RMSE 为 11.94 mm/m，分别比 ConvLSTM 和 SA-ConvLSTM 低 21.5 % 和 13.7 %。平均 MAE 为 9.46 mm/m，分别比 ConvLSTM 和 SA-ConvLSTM 低 21.3 % 和 13 %。多头自我关注模块的加入增强了模型全面理解输入数据特征的能力。这一改进使模型能够更好地适应不同尺度和角度的特征关系，从而增强其表征能力，并能有效适应复杂的环境变化。

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引用次数: 0

Groundwater-surface water exchanges in an alluvial plain in southern France subjected to pumping: A coupled multitracer and modeling approach 受抽水影响的法国南部冲积平原的地下水-地表水交换：多示踪剂和建模耦合方法

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101995

Jérôme Texier , Julio Gonçalvès , Thomas Stieglitz , Christine Vallet-Coulomb , Jérôme Labille , Vincent Marc , Angélique Poulain , Philippe Dussouillez

Study region

The study was conducted in an alluvial plain between the Rhône and the Ouvèze Rivers (in the southeast of France) extensively exploited for drinking water. The research area is characterized by significant groundwater-surface interactions influenced by groundwater pumping activities.

Study focus

The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of interactions between rivers and alluvial aquifers by combined multi-tracer and numerical modeling approaches. Over an 18-month period, groundwater temperature, piezometric levels, and river surface water levels were continuously monitored. Field campaigns focused on conductivity, stable isotopes of water, and radon-222 activity concentration in both groundwater and surface water. Radon-222 was used to quantify water exchanges between the river and the aquifer. A MODFLOW model, calibrated using piezometric data and PEST, was employed to simulate groundwater flow and reactive transport of radon-222 using MT3DMS.

New hydrological insights for the region

The study reveals that river water recharges the aquifer, with radon-222 data delineating this recharge zone. The methodology extended the interpretation of periodic groundwater temperature signals to isotopic signals, allowing the identification of dispersivity and Darcy's velocity. The Ouvèze River was found to contribute approximately 55 % of the pumping water supply, alongside the Rhône. These findings provide valuable insights for sustainable water resource management, demonstrating the relevance of using natural tracers in scenarios where artificial tracers are impractical.

研究区域该研究在罗讷河和乌韦兹河（位于法国东南部）之间的冲积平原进行，该平原被广泛开发用于饮用水。研究重点这项研究旨在通过多示踪剂和数值建模相结合的方法，加深对河流和冲积含水层之间相互作用的了解。在为期 18 个月的时间里，对地下水温度、压水位和河流地表水位进行了连续监测。实地活动的重点是地下水和地表水中的电导率、水的稳定同位素以及氡-222 活性浓度。氡-222 被用来量化河流与含水层之间的水交换。该研究揭示了河水对含水层的补给作用，氡-222 数据则划定了这一补给区。该方法将周期性地下水温度信号的解释扩展到同位素信号，从而确定了分散性和达西速度。研究发现，乌韦兹河与罗纳河的水量约占抽水水量的 55%。这些发现为水资源的可持续管理提供了宝贵的见解，证明了在人工示踪剂不可行的情况下使用自然示踪剂的相关性。

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引用次数: 0

Identification of dominant drivers of streamflow spatiotemporal variations in typical mountainous areas in the Hexi Corridor, China 确定中国河西走廊典型山区河水时空变化的主要驱动因素

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102024

Lemin Wei , Wenzhi Zhao , Chuandong Wu , Xiangyan Feng , Dacheng Song

Study region

Typical mountain areas in the Hexi Corridor, China.

Study focus

Water security and ecosystem sustainability of arid inland river basins are highly dependent on upstream streamflow. However, due to the complex geographical environment and limited observation data in the study region, the attribution of spatiotemporal variations in streamflow influenced by climate change and/or human activities remains unclear. Here, we used partial least squares regression (PLSR) and the Budyko framework to unravel the dominant drivers of spatiotemporal variation in streamflow over the past 30 yr.

New hydrological insight for the region

Precipitation, topographic wetness index, slope, forest land, gross primary productivity, hydrological connectivity, soil organic carbon content, silt content, relative relief, NDVI and gravel content dominated spatial variation in streamflow. Temporal variation of streamflow was sensitive to precipitation and land surface. Specifically, increased precipitation and land surface alteration dominated the increase in streamflow in 50 % of the watersheds and the decrease in streamflow in 33 % of them, respectively. Further, land surface alteration was dominated by expansion of agricultural and built-up areas, weakened hydrological connectivity, increased landscape aggregation and forest cover. Controlling agricultural and built-up areas and the scale of afforestation, and focusing on the dynamics of hydrological connectivity and landscape patterns in the upstream reaches are imperative to maintain the security and sustainability of water resources in the arid inland river basins.

研究区域中国河西走廊的典型山区。研究重点干旱内陆河流域的水安全和生态系统可持续性高度依赖于上游河水流量。然而，由于研究区域复杂的地理环境和有限的观测数据，受气候变化和/或人类活动影响的径流量时空变化的归因仍不明确。降水、地形湿润指数、坡度、林地、总初级生产力、水文连通性、土壤有机碳含量、粉砂含量、相对地形、NDVI 和砾石含量主导了溪流的空间变化。溪流的时间变化对降水和地表很敏感。具体而言，降水增加和地表改变分别主导了 50% 流域的溪流增加和 33% 流域的溪流减少。此外，农业区和建筑区的扩大、水文连通性的减弱、景观聚集度的增加和森林覆盖率的提高也是地表变化的主要原因。要保持干旱内陆河流域水资源的安全性和可持续性，就必须控制农业区和建筑区以及植树造林的规模，并关注上游水文连通性和景观格局的动态变化。

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引用次数: 0

Spatiotemporal desynchronization in the propagation from meteorological to soil moisture drought in the Loess Plateau, China 中国黄土高原从气象干旱到土壤水分干旱传播过程中的时空不同步现象

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102025

Mingqiu Nie , Shengzhi Huang , Xin-Min Zeng , Jian Peng , Ganggang Bai

Study Region

The Loess Plateau (LP) of China

Study Focus

Meteorological drought (MD) would propagate to soil moisture drought (SMD) with spatiotemporal desynchronization. The spatial desynchronization between them has frequently been ignored in previous studies due to limitation of identified droughts, which did not consider their 3-dimensional (3D, i.e. longitude, latitude and time) properties. This study presents a 3D perspective on the spatiotemporal desynchronization in the propagation from meteorological to soil moisture drought in the the Loess Plateau (LP) of China, using an improved drought matching method. Event Synchronization (ES) is extended to determine temporal linkage of the two types of droughts and spatial connection is tested using overlapping area.

New Hydrological Insights for the Region

The results showed that: (1) the improved method is reasonable for identifying MDs that trigger SMDs, down to specific clusters; (2) 8 SMDs preceded MDs 1 month, while approximately 79 % of SMDs did not recover after the determination of MDs; (3) severity of MD is an impact factor on recovery lag, while antecedent soil moisture dominates onset lag with the relative importance of approximately 50 %; and (4) incompletely overlap in migration trajectory between the two types of droughts was mainly caused by temperature, followed by antecedent soil moisture and potential evapotranspiration, with relative importance of 55 %, 14 % and 12 %, respectively.

研究区域中国黄土高原（LP）研究重点气象干旱（MD）会随着时空不同步传播到土壤水分干旱（SMD）。在以往的研究中，由于识别干旱的局限性，没有考虑它们的三维（3D，即经度、纬度和时间）特性，它们之间的空间非同步性经常被忽视。本研究采用改进的干旱匹配方法，从三维角度探讨了中国黄土高原（LP）从气象干旱到土壤水分干旱传播过程中的时空非同步性。结果表明：(1) 改进的方法是合理的；(2) 改进的方法是有效的；(3) 改进的方法是可行的；(4) 改进的方法是可行的；(5) 改进的方法是可行的：结果表明：(1) 改进后的方法可以合理地识别出引发 SMD 的多级干旱，甚至是特定的群集；(2) 8 个 SMD 比多级干旱早发生 1 个月，而约 79% 的 SMD 在确定多级干旱后没有恢复；(3) 多级干旱的严重程度是恢复滞后的影响因素，而先期土壤水分主导了起始滞后，相对重要性约为 50%；(4) 两种干旱的迁移轨迹不完全重合主要是由温度造成的，其次是先决土壤水分和潜在蒸散量，相对重要性分别为 55%、14% 和 12%。

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引用次数: 0

Utilizing the HBV-Light semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model to estimate groundwater recharge in the upstream part of the Awash River basin, Ethiopia 利用 HBV-Light 半分布式概念水文模型估算埃塞俄比亚阿瓦什河流域上游的地下水补给量

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.102018

A. Muauz , B. Berehanu , H. Bedru

Study region

Upstream part of the Awash River basin, located central part of Ethiopia

Study focus

In this paper, we estimated the groundwater recharge using a semi-distributed, conceptual hydrological HBV-Light model. We used metrological and flow data from the Ethiopia Metrological Agency and the Ministry of Water and Energy, respectively. To simulate groundwater recharge over the reference period from 1988 to 2015 we merged these data with the conceptual HBV-Light rainfall-runoff model for calibration and validation. The average yearly precipitation from 1986 to 2015 was 1117 mm. Two calibration situations are examined to determine the level of uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach with randomly generated parameter values.

New hydrological insights for the region

For a 20-year calibration period, several parameter values were observed and modeled flow equally well. Except for most parameters, good simulations were discovered with values that varied across vast ranges. A few parameters were well-defined (i.e., the optimum parameter values were within limited ranges). We also employed the regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) method to assess the sensitivity of model parameters and model. HBV-light and the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method were used for selecting its parameters. The results indicate that the calculated evapotranspiration is 79.5–80 % of the precipitation. Awash Melkakuntiro and Hombele’s calculated recharge rates are 220.8 mm/yr and 212.01 mm/yr, respectively. Thus, the average annual recharge for the study area is 216 (19.6 %) of the yearly precipitation. The study found that groundwater resource availability is strongly linked to current recharge rates. To improve the accuracy of groundwater recharge estimation, the HBV-Light model was employed. The study recommends enhancing data consistency and quality by expanding the hydrometeorological database and integrating real-time data for daily recharge calculations.

研究区域位于埃塞俄比亚中部的阿瓦什河流域上游地区研究重点在本文中，我们使用半分布式概念水文 HBV-Light 模型估算了地下水补给量。我们使用的计量和流量数据分别来自埃塞俄比亚计量局和水利能源部。为了模拟 1988 年至 2015 年参考期内的地下水补给情况，我们将这些数据与 HBV-Light 概念降雨-径流模型进行了合并，以进行校准和验证。1986 年至 2015 年的年平均降水量为 1117 毫米。在 20 年的校准期内，多个参数值的观测结果与模型流量相当。除了大多数参数外，其他参数的模拟结果都很好，参数值的变化范围很大。少数参数定义明确（即最佳参数值在有限范围内）。我们还采用了区域敏感性分析（RSA）方法来评估模型参数和模型的敏感性。模型参数的选择采用了 HBV-light 和广义似然不确定性估计方法。结果表明，计算得出的蒸散量占降水量的 79.5-80%。Awash Melkakuntiro 和 Hombele 的计算补给率分别为 220.8 毫米/年和 212.01 毫米/年。因此，研究区域的年平均补给量为全年降水量的 216（19.6%）。研究发现，地下水资源的可用性与当前的补给率密切相关。为提高地下水补给估算的准确性，采用了 HBV-Light 模型。研究建议通过扩大水文气象数据库和整合每日补给计算的实时数据来提高数据的一致性和质量。

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引用次数: 0