Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献_第2页

Response of water cycle over drylands to a warming future 旱地水循环对未来变暖的反应

IF 5.2 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.005

Chen-Xi LIU , Hai-Peng YU , Yu REN , Yun WEI , Wen-Xia ZHANG , Li-Xia ZHANG , Si-Yu CHEN , Rui-Xia GUO , Jie ZHOU

The synergistic relationship among various hydrological elements within the water cycle remains unclear because existing studies have mainly focused on the response of a single water cycle element to global warming in drylands or on a single hotspot region. To address this knowledge gap, we leveraged Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6–based multi-model projections (2021–2100) of the atmospheric and moisture budget to investigate the response of the full water cycle process to global warming in global drylands. The results reveal that the global dryland water cycle will accelerate within the projected period. Notably, the multi-model median responses regarding the annual precipitation (P; 6.71 (3.12–10.07) mm/K), evapotranspiration (E; 5.46 (3.08–8.59) mm/K), precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P−E; 0.05 (−1.33–1.21) mm/K) and runoff (R; 2.48 (0.19–3.07) mm/K) exhibit evidently increasing trends. Conversely, the total soil moisture is projected to decrease at a rate of −0.64 (−8.85–3.59) mm/K, which will exacerbate drought risk and reduce agricultural yields. We observe that global warming will exert varying effects on the water cycle. Regionally, it is expected to strengthen in East Asia's drylands but weaken in South Africa's. Seasonally, the P−E projection indicates that the global drylands will experience an intensified water cycle in the wet season (by 1.84 (−4.5–7.1) mm/K) but a slight decrease in the dry season (by −0.79 (−3.8–1.2) mm/K). Further, a moisture-budget decomposition reveals that the thermodynamic term, −32.1 (−35.82 to −23.9) mm/K, negatively contributes to precipitation mainly due to enhanced moisture divergence, whereas the dynamic term, 5.11 (1.54–7.36) mm/K, partially offset these effects. Our findings are of great significance for adapting to future global dryland water cycle changes and sustainable management of water resources.

由于现有的研究主要集中在旱地或单一热点地区单一水循环要素对全球变暖的响应，水循环中各水文要素之间的协同关系尚不清楚。为了解决这一知识差距，我们利用基于耦合模式比对项目第6阶段（2021-2100）的大气和水分预算的多模式预测来研究全球旱地的整个水循环过程对全球变暖的响应。结果表明，在预测期内，全球旱地水循环将加速。值得注意的是，年降水量（P; 6.71 (3.12-10.07) mm/K）、蒸散发（E; 5.46 (3.08-8.59) mm/K）、降水-蒸散发（P−E; 0.05 (- 1.33-1.21) mm/K）和径流（R; 2.48 (0.19-3.07) mm/K）的多模式中值响应均呈现明显的增加趋势。相反，预计土壤总湿度将以- 0.64 (- 8.85-3.59)mm/K的速率减少，这将加剧干旱风险并降低农业产量。我们观察到，全球变暖将对水循环产生不同的影响。从地区来看，预计东亚旱地的台风将增强，而南非旱地的台风将减弱。从季节上看，P - E预估表明，全球旱地在雨季将经历一个加强的水循环（增加1.84 (- 4.5-7.1)mm/K），而在旱季则略有减少（减少- 0.79 (- 3.8-1.2)mm/K）。此外，水分收支分解表明，热力项（−32.1(−35.82 ~−23.9)mm/K）对降水有负贡献，主要是由于水汽辐散增强，而动力项（5.11 (1.54 ~ 7.36)mm/K）部分抵消了这些影响。研究结果对适应未来全球旱地水循环变化和水资源可持续管理具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of demographic changes on carbon emissions under a carbon-neutral pathway 碳中和路径下人口变化对碳排放的影响

IF 5.2 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.004

Han-Ying Zhong , Shi-Hui Zhang , Can Wang , Kang-Xin An , Yi-Dan Chen

The existing carbon-neutral oriented climate change policy modeling studies hardly consider the multidimensional demographic factors, and lack scientific understanding of the comprehensive impact of changes in demographic factors on future carbon emissions in the medium and long term. In this study, we constructed a dataset of China's future medium and long-term demographic changes by urban and rural areas, age, gender, and education level through multidimensional iterative modeling. Then a computable general equilibrium model of China's multiregional population dynamics model was constructed, and various counterfactual scenarios were designed to analyze the impacts of carbon emissions from changes in population size and demographic structure and their mechanisms under a carbon-neutral pathway. The results show that under the multifactor demographic, the national CO₂ emissions peak at 9.93 Gt in 2030 in the baseline scenario and continue to decline between 2030 and 2060, leaving 1.97 Gt of CO₂ emissions in 2060 without considering negative emissions technologies. The fossil power generation sector is the main contributor to CO₂ emission reductions in the long-term timeframe beyond 2030. Considering only changes in population size and ignoring demographic changes would overestimate national carbon emissions, 1.0% (100 Mt) of CO₂ emissions would be overestimated in 2030, and 7.5% (160 Mt) in 2060. By 2060, ignoring demographic changes on the consumption side overestimates national carbon emissions by 1.15%, while on the production side, ignoring demographic impacts on labor supply would overestimate them by 6.2%. On the production side, changes in the age structure of the population and increases in educational attainment are the main factors, leading to a 16.5% decrease and 10% increase in national carbon emissions, respectively.

现有的以碳中和为导向的气候变化政策模型研究很少考虑多维人口因素，缺乏对人口因素变化对未来中长期碳排放的综合影响的科学认识。本研究通过多维迭代建模，构建了中国未来中长期城乡、年龄、性别和受教育程度人口变化数据集。在此基础上，构建了中国多区域人口动态模型的可计算一般均衡模型，并设计了不同的反事实情景，分析了碳中和路径下人口规模和人口结构变化对碳排放的影响及其机制。结果表明，在多因素人口统计情景下，基线情景下，2030年全国二氧化碳排放量达到峰值9.93 Gt，在2030 - 2060年期间继续下降，在不考虑负排放技术的情况下，2060年全国二氧化碳排放量为1.97 Gt。从2030年以后的长期来看，化石发电行业是二氧化碳减排的主要贡献者。仅考虑人口规模的变化而忽略人口结构的变化会高估国家碳排放量，2030年将高估1.0%（1亿吨）的二氧化碳排放量，2060年将高估7.5%（1.6亿吨）。到2060年，忽略消费端的人口变化，国家碳排放量高估了1.15%，而在生产端，忽略人口对劳动力供给的影响，国家碳排放量高估了6.2%。在生产方面，人口年龄结构的变化和受教育程度的提高是主要因素，导致全国碳排放量分别下降16.5%和增加10%。

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引用次数: 0

Escalating risks of anomalously hot–dry growing seasons in arid Northwest China under human influence 人为影响下西北干热生长季异常风险的上升

IF 5.2 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.004

Xiao-Jing Yu , Si-Yan Dong , Zhi-Xiang Yu , Jiang-Hua Zheng , Min-Zhong Wang , Ping Ma , Hui Qiu , Xiu-Lan Wu , Lei-Bin Wang

The anomalous hydrothermal conditions during growing seasons, i.e. less precipitation and high temperature, could induce an unstable water resource supply and pose great threats to regional agro-pastoral production, particularly in water-scarce drylands. Owing to the biases in the simulations of global climate models, quantifying the anthropogenic influences on such high-impact hot–dry extremes and future risks in the arid and semi-arid areas remains challenging. Based on CN05.1 observations and statistically downscaled simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we conducted a comprehensive attribution and projection on the 2022- and 2023-like growing-season hot–dry extremes in Northwest China (NWC). Observations reveal that NWC experienced a fourfold increase in the occurrence of anomalously hot–dry growing seasons during 1991–2023 relative to that in 1961–1990. Attribution indicates that anthropogenic forcings have doubled/tripled the likelihood of 2022/2023-like hot–dry growing seasons in NWC largely due to human-induced warming. NWC is expected to experience increasingly hot growing seasons but with slight precipitation changes in the 21st century under the intermediate greenhouse gas emission (SSP2-4.5) scenario. The likelihood of 2022/2023-like hot–dry growing seasons in NWC will be more than 1–5 times that in the present-day (1991–2020), which is still dominated by rising temperature. To alleviate the stress of hot–dry growing seasons on agro-pastoral systems, we underscore the urgency of developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for water resource management in water-limited drylands.

生长季节异常的热液条件，即降水减少和高温，可能导致水资源供应不稳定，对区域农牧业生产构成巨大威胁，特别是在缺水的旱地。由于全球气候模式的模拟存在偏差，量化对干旱和半干旱地区这种高影响极端干热事件的人为影响和未来风险仍然具有挑战性。基于CN05.1观测数据和耦合模式比对项目第6阶段的统计缩微模拟，对中国西北地区类似2022年和2023年的生长季极端干热事件进行了综合归因和预测。观测结果表明，1991-2023年NWC异常干热生长季的发生次数比1961-1990年增加了4倍。归因表明，人为强迫使NWC出现2022/2023年那样的干热生长季节的可能性增加了一倍/三倍，这主要是由于人为引起的变暖。在中等温室气体排放（SSP2-4.5）情景下，预计21世纪NWC将经历越来越热的生长季节，但降水变化不大。NWC出现2022/2023年那样的干热生长季的可能性将是目前（1991-2020年）的1-5倍以上，而目前的主要因素仍是气温上升。为了减轻炎热干燥生长季节对农牧系统的压力，我们强调迫切需要在水资源有限的旱地制定有效的适应和缓解战略，进行水资源管理。

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引用次数: 0

The distinctive characteristics of glacier surface melt under the combined control of westerlies and monsoon in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

IF 5.2 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.010

Shu-Hai Guo , Yue-Ping Li , Ren-Sheng Chen , Chun-Tan Han

As a key part of the Asian Water Tower, the glaciers in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) experience the mass balance changes jointly regulated by the westerlies and monsoon circulation. However, the mechanisms driving glacier melt in this region under complex atmospheric circulation remain unclear. This study investigates wind-driven energy allocation and its impact on glacier melt using four years (2018–2021) of meteorological and surface energy balance (SEB) data from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the August-one glacier, a flat-topped glacier in the westerlies–monsoon transition zone of the TP. Results reveal that westerly winds suppress melt primarily through cold air advection, markedly lowering near-surface temperatures and intensifying net longwave radiation loss (L_net). Despite increasing shortwave radiation under reduced cloudiness, the combined effects of low temperatures and enhanced L_net depletion limit net energy accumulation (R_net), resulting in a ‘low temperature–high albedo–low energy’ feedback loop. Conversely, easterly (local valley winds) and southerly winds (monsoon-influenced) dominate melt during the melt-season (71% of cumulative melt) by transporting warm–humid airflows that elevate cloud cover and inhibit longwave heat loss, thereby increasing melt efficiency. Radiation conversion efficiency (η) declines by 70% as westerly wind speeds increase (1–11 m/s), highlighting dynamic energy reallocation caused by cold advection. These findings challenge the traditional emphasis on shortwave radiation dominance, underscoring the coupled roles of wind regimes, temperature and longwave radiation in melt dynamics.

然而，在复杂的大气环流下，该地区冰川融化的驱动机制尚不清楚。本文利用青藏高原西风—季风过渡带平顶冰川August-one的自动气象站（AWS） 4年（2018-2021）气象和地表能量平衡（SEB）数据，研究了风能分配及其对冰川融化的影响。结果表明，西风主要通过冷空气平流抑制融化，显著降低近地表温度，增加净长波辐射损失（Lnet）。尽管在云量减少的情况下短波辐射增加，但低温和增强的净能量消耗的综合作用限制了净能量积累（Rnet），导致“低温-高反照率-低能量”的反馈循环。相反，在融化季节，东风（当地山谷风）和南风（受季风影响）主导融化（占累积融化量的71%），通过输送暖湿气流提升云层并抑制长波热损失，从而提高融化效率。随着西风风速的增加（1 ~ 11 m/s），辐射转换效率（η）下降70%，突出了冷平流引起的动态能量再分配。这些发现挑战了传统上强调短波辐射优势的观点，强调了风况、温度和长波辐射在熔体动力学中的耦合作用。

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引用次数: 0

Geographically-dependent coastal marine heatwaves: Insights from coastal seas around a semi-enclosed bay 地理上依赖的沿海海洋热浪：来自半封闭海湾周围沿海海洋的见解

IF 5.2 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.012

Yu-Wei Hu , Chun-Zai Wang , Xiao-Hua Wang

Coastal seas connecting the open ocean and land are highly impacted by local terrestrial weather and climate systems. However, there is a lack of research focus on the distinct coastal geographical features, which may locally contribute to the spatiotemporal pattern and associated drivers of coastal marine heatwaves (MHWs). MHW metrics defined using the Climate Change Initiative Sea Surface Temperature (SST) dataset during 1981–2020, including event-averaged cumulative intensity, duration and frequency, show significant spatial correlations (|R| > 0.92) with each other at Shark Bay, Western Australia, which also have distinct high correlations (R > 0.73) with bathymetry. Mixed-layer heat budget analyses using the Bluelink ReANalysis (BRAN2020), analogues to the interpretation of results from a simplified atmospheric-forced experiment, further confirm the possibly nonnegligible contribution of geographical features to the warming and cooling effects caused by atmospheric and oceanic drivers during the onset and decline phase of major events. All major events illustrate a constrained contribution of the entrainment process over bay-entrance areas (<0.01 °C/d). Events in the out-bay (bathymetry > 25 m) and bay-entrance (bathymetry ≤ 25 m) areas experience different magnitudes of net cooling or net warming effects of horizontal advection and mixing processes. By evaluating the geographically separated MHWs over the last 40 years, it was found that MHWs over the shallow in-bay areas are typically frequent (approximately once per year) but less intense and short, while events in the deep out-bay areas are less frequent (approximately interannual) but more intense and prolonged when concurrent with anomalous ENSO-sensitive warm water advection. We suggested that a global assessment of these differences is necessary to identify qualified coastal seas associated with higher resilience to sudden and prolonged ocean warming.

连接公海和陆地的沿海海域受到当地陆地天气和气候系统的高度影响。然而，沿海地区独特的地理特征可能对沿海海洋热浪的时空格局和相关驱动因素有一定的影响，这方面的研究缺乏关注。利用气候变化倡议海表温度（SST） 1981-2020年数据集定义的MHW指标，包括事件平均累积强度、持续时间和频率，在西澳大利亚鲨鱼湾表现出显著的空间相关性（|R| > 0.92），与水深测量也表现出明显的高相关性（R > 0.73）。利用蓝链再分析（BRAN2020）进行的混合层热收支分析，类似于对一个简化的大气强迫实验结果的解释，进一步证实了地理特征对重大事件开始和减弱阶段由大气和海洋驱动因素引起的增温和降温效应的可能不可忽视的贡献。所有主要事件都表明海湾入口区域的夹带过程的贡献有限（<0.01°C/d）。在海湾外（水深≤25m）和海湾入口（水深≤25m）区域的事件经历了不同程度的水平平流和混合过程的净冷却或净增温效应。通过对近40年来地理上分离的强热带气旋进行评价，发现浅海湾内强热带气旋较为频繁（大约每年一次），但强度较弱且时间较短，而深海湾外强热带气旋较少（大约年际），但与enso异常敏感的暖水平流同时发生时强度较强且持续时间较长。我们建议，有必要对这些差异进行全球评估，以确定具有更高抵御突然和长期海洋变暖能力的合格沿海海域。

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引用次数: 0

Synergistic effects of warming and heavy snowfall accumulation on the increased risk of large-scale snow avalanches in the western Tianshan Mountains 气候变暖和强降雪积累对天山西部大范围雪崩风险增加的协同效应

IF 5.2 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.009

Guo-Qing Chen , Jian-Sheng Hao , Lan-Hai Li , Yan Wang , Fen Zhang , Chao-Yue Li , Yong Zhang

Climate change has increased temperatures and altered snowpack properties, which in turn affect avalanche activity. The extent to which climate change affects avalanche activity and how avalanche activity responds to climate change remains poorly understood, which hinders avalanche risk assessments under future climate change. In this study, we applied tree-ring evidence from trees affected by avalanches to reproduce historical avalanche events and then combined the observed meteorological and snowpack data to reveal the response mechanism of avalanche activity to climate change in the Tianshan Mountains. The study found that snow seasons with large-scale avalanche events have increased since 1943, which is contrary to the assumption that less snow under a warming climate reduces the risk of avalanches. Snow seasons in which large-scale avalanches occur are characterised by high snow depth in November (>44.4 cm) and April (>60.9 cm), together with low December temperatures (<−1.9 °C) under heavy snowfall (≥34.4 cm). Under climate change, the study area experienced a marked increase in snow-season temperatures along with rising trends in snow depth and heavy snowfall, leading to elevated avalanche risk in the middle altitudes of the western Tianshan Mountains, where human activities are intensive. This study provides a clear understanding of avalanche risk changes in the region under climate change and helps people propose climate-change adaptation strategies for avalanche risk.

气候变化导致气温升高，积雪特性发生改变，进而影响雪崩活动。气候变化对雪崩活动的影响程度以及雪崩活动对气候变化的响应机制仍然知之甚少，这阻碍了未来气候变化下的雪崩风险评估。本研究利用受雪崩影响的树木年轮证据再现历史雪崩事件，并结合气象和积雪观测资料，揭示天山地区雪崩活动对气候变化的响应机制。研究发现，自1943年以来，发生大规模雪崩事件的雪季有所增加，这与气候变暖导致降雪减少会降低雪崩风险的假设相反。发生大规模雪崩的雪季特征是11月（>44.4 cm）和4月（>60.9 cm）雪深高，12月大雪（≥34.4 cm）时气温低（<−1.9℃）。气候变化条件下，研究区雪季气温显著升高，雪深和降雪量呈上升趋势，导致天山西山中高海拔地区人类活动密集地区雪崩风险增大。该研究为气候变化下该地区雪崩风险的变化提供了清晰的认识，并有助于人们提出应对雪崩风险的气候变化策略。

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引用次数: 0

A classification‒regression‒correction (CRC) strategy for precipitation merging with gauge-independent spatial autocorrelation predictors 分类-回归-校正（CRC）降水合并策略与非标准空间自相关预测

IF 5.2 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.09.007

Rui Gao , Ling-Jie Li , Yin-Tang Wang , Zhao-De Yun , Zhi-Xin Peng , Guo-Ping Liu , Zi-Jiang Zhou

Multi-source precipitation merging enhances spatiotemporal estimation accuracy, yet machine learning (ML)-based methods suffer from limitations in rain/no-rain identification and violate ML principles by utilizing gauge-based spatial autocorrelation predictors. This study proposes an innovative classification‒regression‒correction (CRC) precipitation merging framework and constructs gauge-independent spatial autocorrelation predictors. The framework employs four ML models (KNN, RF, AdaBoost, and XGBoost) as candidate models in the classification and regression steps, with the correction step integrating their outputs to distinguish rain/no-rain events. Using the proposed method, this study carries out precipitation merging in the lower Yangtze River Basin and the Lixiahe region using gauge observations, IMERG, GSMaP, and ERA5. The results indicate that: 1) RF exhibits the highest accuracy in rain/no-rain classification, achieving a monthly average critical success index (CSI) of 0.684; 2) the RF–RF combination demonstrates the best performance, markedly improving precipitation detection and estimation capabilities, with the monthly average CSI increasing from approximately 0.450 to 0.688 and the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE’) improving from about 0.500 to 0.725 compared to the parent datasets; and 3) the CRC merging strategy effectively enhances the ability to distinguish rain/no-rain events, while the constructed spatial autocorrelation predictors both prevent data leakage and enhance continuous accuracy. This study demonstrates the potential of the CRC framework to advance multi-source precipitation merging and provide robust technical support for enhancing meteorological disaster preparedness.

多源降水合并提高了时空估计精度，但基于机器学习（ML）的方法在雨/无雨识别方面存在局限性，并且由于使用基于量具的空间自相关预测因子而违反ML原则。本文提出了一种创新的分类回归校正（CRC）降水合并框架，并构建了独立于测度的空间自相关预测因子。该框架采用四个ML模型（KNN， RF， AdaBoost和XGBoost）作为分类和回归步骤的候选模型，校正步骤整合它们的输出以区分下雨/无雨事件。利用该方法，利用量规观测、IMERG、GSMaP和ERA5对长江下游和里下河地区进行了降水归并。结果表明：1)RF在雨/无雨分类中准确率最高，月平均临界成功指数（CSI）为0.684；2) RF-RF组合表现最好，显著提高了降水探测和估算能力，月平均CSI从0.450左右提高到0.688，KGE′从0.500左右提高到0.725；3) CRC合并策略有效增强了雨/无雨事件的区分能力，构建的空间自相关预测因子既防止了数据泄漏，又提高了连续精度。该研究证明了CRC框架在推进多源降水合并方面的潜力，并为加强气象灾害防范提供了强有力的技术支持。

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引用次数: 0

Unraveling the roles of decreased Tibetan Plateau snow cover on summer prolonged marine heatwaves in the Yellow Sea‒Bohai Sea

IF 5.2 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.004

Xiao-Jing Jia , Wei Dong , Xiu-Ming Li , Ren-Guang Wu , Hao Ma

The Yellow Sea–Bohai Sea (YSBS) region faces frequent summer marine heatwaves (MHWs), while the upstream Tibetan Plateau is rapidly warming and losing snow cover, yet the connection between these two trends remains unclear. This study, based on observational data and numerical models, reveals the underlying mechanisms between Tibetan Plateau snow cover (TPSC) and summer MHWs in the YSBS (MHWs_YSBS) during 1982–2020. The results indicate a significant positive correlation between the prolonged duration of summer MHWs_YSBS and diminished spring TPSC. The findings indicate that decreased spring TPSC exhibits considerable persistence and triggers a deep anomalous anticyclonic system over the Tibetan Plateau by influencing its thermal condition. This anticyclonic system develops and moves eastward from spring to summer, leading to an anomalous high-pressure system over the YSBS during summer. This system is accompanied by descending air and a decrease in cloud cover, which collectively create conducive conditions for the emergence of summer MHWs_YSBS. The reduced TPSC-induced anticyclonic system modulates westerly winds over the YSBS region, forming a double jet pattern that sustains and amplifies MHWs. Numerical modeling experiments and quantitative analysis further elucidate the mechanism by which reduced spring TPSC influences the persistence of summer MHWs_YSBS. This process is driven by the enhancement of atmospheric high-pressure systems extending from the Tibetan Plateau to the YSBS, with TPSC contributing over 50% to this effect. These findings deepen our understanding of the climatic impacts of the warming Tibetan Plateau and offer a new perspective for understanding the prolonged MHWs_YSBS.

结果表明，夏季MHWs_YSBS持续时间的延长与春季TPSC的降低呈显著正相关。这个反气旋系统从春季到夏季发展并向东移动，导致夏季在YSBS上空形成一个异常高压系统。该系统伴随着空气下降和云量减少，共同为夏季MHWs_YSBS的出现创造了有利条件。减弱的tpsc诱导的反气旋系统调节YSBS地区的西风，形成维持和放大mhw的双射流模式。数值模拟实验和定量分析进一步阐明了春季TPSC减少影响夏季MHWs_YSBS持续的机制。

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引用次数: 0

Variations in Greenland surface melt and extreme events from 1958 to 2023 1958年至2023年格陵兰岛表面融化和极端事件的变化

IF 5.2 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.004

Qing-Lin Zhang , Ming-Hu Ding , Michiel R. van den Broeke , Brice NoËl , Xavier Fettweis , Sai Wang , Wei-Jun Sun , Qing-Long You , Cun-De Xiao , Da-He Qin , Bao-Juan Huai

Surface melt and subsequent runoff have been the main contributors to recent Greenland mass loss. However, previous studies mainly focused on the extent and persistence of surface melt. The variations in surface melt rates and extreme events have not been adequately known, especially the role of extremes in the long-term surface melt changes. Here, using two high-resolution regional climate models (RACMO2.3p2 and MARv3.14), we analyzed the variations in Greenland surface melt in 1958–2023. Both models (RACMO/MAR) show that annual surface melt is rapidly increasing post-1990 at a rate of 8.6 ± 4.9/7.2 ± 4.4 Gt per year. The northern regions show the strongest relative regional increase rate (3.9% ± 1.9%/3.4% ± 1.6% per year), contributing more surface melt to the whole Greenland. Based on the 90th percentile of the daily distribution, we found that extreme surface melt events from May to September (M−S) have become more frequent post-1990 (0.7/0.8 ± 0.5 d per year). Compared with 1958–1990, M−S surface melt from extreme events has increased by 134/105 Gt per year and dominates the increase in the total surface melt. During extreme surface melt events, we found an increase in downward longwave radiation, net shortwave radiation and sensible heat flux. The rise in surface melt and extreme events post-1990 is linked to more frequent atmospheric blocking. This study improves our understanding of the role in ice sheet mass balance played by long-term variations in ice sheet surface melt and extreme events.

地表融化和随后的径流是最近格陵兰岛质量损失的主要原因。然而，以往的研究主要集中在地表融化的程度和持续时间上。地表融化速率和极端事件的变化尚未得到充分认识，特别是极端事件在长期地表融化变化中的作用。本文利用两个高分辨率区域气候模式（RACMO2.3p2和MARv3.14），分析了1958-2023年格陵兰岛地表融化的变化。两种模式（RACMO/MAR）均显示，1990年以后，年表面融化量以8.6±4.9/7.2±4.4 Gt /年的速率快速增加。北部地区的相对区域增长率最强（3.9%±1.9%/3.4%±1.6% /年），对整个格陵兰岛的地表融化贡献较大。从日分布的第90个百分点来看，1990年以后，5 ~ 9月（M ~ S）极端地表融化事件的发生频率增加（每年0.7/0.8±0.5 d）。与1958-1990年相比，极端事件造成的M−S表面融化增加了134/105 Gt /年，并主导了表面融化总量的增加。在极端地表融化事件中，长波向下辐射、短波净辐射和感热通量增加。1990年以后，地表融化和极端事件的增加与更频繁的大气阻塞有关。这项研究提高了我们对冰盖表面融化和极端事件的长期变化对冰盖质量平衡的作用的理解。

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The intensification of soil extreme heat further accelerates the rise of atmospheric extreme temperature over China 土壤极端高温的加剧进一步加速了中国大气极端温度的上升

IF 5.2 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.016

Si-Chao Yan , Huo-Po Chen , Yu-Chun Du , Wen-Yue He

Soil temperature is recognized as a fundamental factor influencing the intensity and frequency of heatwaves. However, the degree to which soil temperature regulates the release of organic carbon through soil respiration and its contribution to atmospheric warming still needs to be clarified. Through site and reanalysis data, the trend of soil extreme high heat intensity index exceeded that of air in about 75% of regions in China from 1961 to 2023. For extreme high heat frequency and duration, this proportion is even greater, reaching 78% and 88% respectively. Particularly in Northeast China, the increasing trend for soil extreme heat is nearly double that of air. In this context, the intensified soil extreme heat is markedly accelerating soil respiration rates, with a remarkable increase of 33.6% reported in North China. This further enhances carbon dioxide (CO₂) release, with forest and agricultural ecosystems identified as significant contributors to carbon emissions in Northeast China. Furthermore, the impact of rising soil extreme heat on air temperatures is projected to intensify in the future, especially in North China, which is expected to increase by 30% as the global temperature escalating from 1.5 to 2.0°C. Future increases in soil extreme heat intensity could further enhance soil respiration, exacerbating CO₂ emissions and accelerating future warming.

土壤温度被认为是影响热浪强度和频率的基本因素。然而，土壤温度对有机碳通过土壤呼吸释放的调节程度及其对大气变暖的贡献仍有待明确。1961 - 2023年，中国约75%的地区土壤极端高热强度指数趋势超过空气极端高热强度指数趋势。对于极端高温频率和持续时间，这一比例更大，分别达到78%和88%。特别是在东北地区，土壤极端高温的增加趋势几乎是空气极端高温的两倍。在此背景下，土壤极端高温加剧显著加速了土壤呼吸速率，华北地区土壤呼吸速率显著增加33.6%。这进一步增加了二氧化碳（CO2）的释放，森林和农业生态系统被认为是东北地区碳排放的重要贡献者。未来土壤极端热升高对气温的影响将会加剧，特别是在华北地区，随着全球气温从1.5°C上升到2.0°C，土壤极端热升高对气温的影响预计将增加30%。未来土壤极端热强度的增加可能进一步增强土壤呼吸，加剧二氧化碳排放，加速未来变暖。

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引用次数: 0