Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献_第10页

Uncertainties in global permafrost area extent estimates from different methods 不同方法估算全球永久冻土区范围的不确定性

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.008

Xuan-Jia Li , Xiao-Qing Peng , Oliver W. Frauenfeld , Guang-Shang Yang , Wei-Wei Tian , Yuan Huang , Gang Wei , Guan-Qun Chen , Cui-Cui Mu , Hao Sun

Previous permafrost extent estimates applied one or two methods to calculate the permafrost area, and the uncertainties between the methods were not assessed. Here, we apply seven methods to estimate and project global permafrost area extent and discuss the uncertainties of each approach. These methods are forced with output from CMIP6 and ERA5-Land, and we quantify the seven methods’ differences and uncertainties. During the historical period (1981–2010), the mean global permafrost area from multiple methods is 14.1 ± 4.5 × 10⁶ km², with differences ranging from 2.1% to 31.2%. The variability in future permafrost area extent degradation relative to the historical period based on different methods ranges from 1.8% to 34.7%. Uncertainties in permafrost area extent estimates can reach 35% based on different methods. Under various future emission pathways (e.g., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) projects a permafrost extent of only 1.3–8.2 × 10⁶ km² for 2070–2099, corresponding to area decreases of 51.2%–86.9%. Spatially, permafrost near the lower-latitude permafrost boundary may completely disappear by the end of the 21st century, while degradation in the circum-Arctic, Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and Antarctica will be smaller, but still exceed 50% under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). Compared to the temperature distribution of existing permafrost maps, the temperature at top of permafrost model and the surface frost index using ground temperature adjusted for snow methods perform best. However, compared to in-situ boreholes, two generalized linear model approaches have the best overall accuracy. These uncertainties using different methods are important to recognize in assessments of the future state of permafrost degradation.

以往的多年冻土范围估计采用一种或两种方法来计算多年冻土面积，并且没有评估方法之间的不确定性。本文采用7种方法估算和预测全球多年冻土区面积，并讨论了每种方法的不确定性。将这些方法与CMIP6和ERA5-Land的结果进行对比，量化了7种方法的差异和不确定性。在历史时期（1981—2010年），多种方法估算的全球多年冻土区平均面积为14.1±4.5 × 106 km2，差异在2.1% ~ 31.2%之间。基于不同方法的未来多年冻土区面积退化相对于历史时期的变率在1.8% ~ 34.7%之间。基于不同的估算方法，冻土面积估算的不确定性可达35%。在不同的排放路径下（如SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5），最坏情景（SSP5-8.5）预估2070-2099年冻土面积仅为1.3-8.2 × 106 km2，面积减少51.2%-86.9%。从空间上看，在最高排放情景（SSP5-8.5）下，低纬永久冻土边界附近的永久冻土可能在21世纪末完全消失，而环北极、青藏高原和南极洲的退化幅度较小，但仍超过50%。与现有多年冻土图的温度分布相比，多年冻土模型的顶部温度和使用地温调整雪法的地表霜指数表现最好。然而，与原位钻孔相比，两种广义线性模型方法具有最好的整体精度。在评估永久冻土退化的未来状态时，重要的是要认识到使用不同方法的这些不确定性。

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引用次数: 0

Degradation of potential winter roads threatens vulnerable communities’ freight accessibility in the pan-Arctic region 潜在冬季道路的退化威胁到泛北极地区脆弱社区的货运可达性

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.006

Li-Yuan Chen , Wen-Quan Zhu , Cun-De Xiao , Cen-Liang Zhao , Hong-Xiang Guo

Winter roads, which are seasonal roads built on frozen surfaces, serve as a socio-economic lifeline in the pan-Arctic region but are sensitive to amplified Arctic warming. Potential winter roads (PWRs) refer to areas where environmental conditions are suitable for forming the frozen foundation of winter roads. These roads are used to support various vehicles for diverse transportation purposes. However, PWRs for different vehicles (PWRDVs) have not been systematically identified, and the impact of changes in PWRs for freight vehicles on community freight accessibility remains unclear. This study quantified changes in PWRDVs in the pan-Arctic region during the water years 2003–2022 and assessed community freight accessibility under these changes. Results indicate that PWRs for heavier vehicles exhibited smaller areas (ranging from (6.32−8.02) × 10⁶ km² as multi-year averages), shorter durations (ranging from 160 to 180 d for areal and multi-year averages), and more severe degradation. Degraded PWRDVs were primarily observed in the Eurasian Arctic. PWRDV areas decreased by (1.6–3.7) × 10⁴ km² per year (2%–6% per decade). Shortened durations occurred in 8%–21% of PWRDVs, with average reductions of (1.30–2.03) d per year (7%–13% per decade). Some degradation trends were more pronounced than previously documented long-term trends, suggesting accelerated degradation in recent years. Without artificial improvements to other transportation infrastructure, the degradation of PWRs for freight vehicles led to reduced freight accessibility, with improvements in accessibility through PWRs decreasing by 2%–73% per decade in 155 communities, most of which were considered vulnerable due to their relatively large populations and remoteness. These findings provide insights into changes in winter roads and can help enhance the resilience of winter roads and communities to climate change in the pan-Arctic region.

冬季道路是在冰冻地面上修建的季节性道路，是泛北极地区的社会经济生命线，但对北极变暖的加剧很敏感。潜在冬季道路是指环境条件适宜形成冬季道路冻基的地区。这些道路用于支持各种运输目的的各种车辆。然而，不同车辆的pwr （PWRDVs）尚未被系统地确定，货运车辆pwr的变化对社区货运可达性的影响尚不清楚。本研究量化了2003-2022水年期间泛北极地区PWRDVs的变化，并评估了这些变化下的社区货运可达性。结果表明，重型车辆pwr的面积较小（多年平均值为（6.32 ~ 8.02）× 106 km2），持续时间较短（区域平均值和多年平均值为160 ~ 180 d），退化程度更严重。PWRDVs的退化主要发生在欧亚北极地区。PWRDV面积每年减少（1.6-3.7）× 104 km2（每十年减少2%-6%）。8%-21%的pwrdv持续时间缩短，平均每年减少（1.30-2.03）d（每十年减少7%-13%）。一些退化趋势比以前记录的长期趋势更为明显，表明近年来退化加速。在没有人为改善其他交通基础设施的情况下，货运车辆压水堆的退化导致货运可达性降低，155个社区通过压水堆改善的可达性每十年下降2%-73%，其中大多数社区由于人口相对较多和偏远而被认为是脆弱的。这些发现为了解冬季道路的变化提供了见解，并有助于提高泛北极地区冬季道路和社区对气候变化的适应能力。

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引用次数: 0

High-altitude precipitation controls the mass balance of Pasu Glacier, Karakoram over 2000–2020: A case study based on mass and energy budget 高原降水控制2000-2020年喀喇昆仑帕苏冰川物质平衡：基于质量和能量收支的案例研究

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.009

Yu Zhu , Shi-Yin Liu , Ying Yi , Li-De Tian , Muhammad Ashraf , Fu-Ming Xie , Muhammad Saifullah , Syed Hammad Ali , Richard Grünwald

Glaciers in the Karakoram exhibit stability or near-balanced mass changes, in stark contrast to the widespread glacier retreat observed globally. However, the limited availability of observational data, coupled with the lack of in-depth exploration of ablation physical mechanisms, has hindered a comprehensive understanding of the factors driving the anomalous behavior of these glaciers. This study employs an energy‒mass balance model, validated against observational data, and focuses on the representative Pasu Glacier to identify the key factors contributing to the near-balanced glacier mass budget observed over 2000–2020. The analysis revealed an average mass balance of −0.030 ± 0.247 m w.e. per year for Pasu Glacier in 2000–2020, with an average equilibrium line altitude of 4150 m. While snowfall was the primary determinant of mass balance for interannual and seasonal variations, turbulent heat exchange also played a significant role in the glacier's energy balance process. Through an analysis of altitude gradients and long-term variations in mass‒energy gain and loss and comparisons with other glaciers in High Mountain Asia (HMA), we concluded that 1) the balanced state of Pasu Glacier was largely attributed to the magnitude and extent of the accumulation of precipitation at high elevations, 2) reduced snowfall in highly accumulated areas (−0.79% per year), increasing melting intensity (0.026 m w.e. per year), and prolonged melting duration (∼24 d during 2000–2020) indicated a negative tendency of glacier mass budgets, and 3) Pasu Glacier exhibited similar characteristics of continental glaciers in terms of energy balance and polar continental glaciers in terms of mass gain, which have contributed to the stability of Pasu Glacier in 2000–2020. Our findings provide valuable insight into the dominant factors contributing to the balanced state of Pasu Glacier and can be applied to addressing other glacier changes in the Karakoram.

喀喇昆仑的冰川表现出稳定或接近平衡的质量变化，与全球广泛观察到的冰川退缩形成鲜明对比。然而，由于观测数据的有限，加上缺乏对消融物理机制的深入探索，阻碍了对驱动这些冰川异常行为的因素的全面理解。本研究采用能量-质量平衡模型，并对观测数据进行验证，以代表性的帕苏冰川为研究对象，确定2000-2020年观测到的冰川质量收支接近平衡的关键因素。结果表明，2000-2020年帕苏冰川的平均质量平衡为- 0.030±0.247 m w.e.e. /年，平均平衡线高度为4150 m。虽然降雪是年际和季节变化的物质平衡的主要决定因素，但湍流热交换在冰川能量平衡过程中也起着重要作用。通过对海拔梯度和质能损益长期变化的分析，并与亚洲高山冰川（HMA）的其他冰川进行比较，我们得出结论：1)帕苏冰川的平衡状态主要归因于高海拔地区降水积累的幅度和程度；2)高积雪区降雪量减少（- 0.79% /年），融化强度增加（0.026 m w.e. /年）；2000-2020年融化持续时间延长（~ 24 d）表明冰川质量收支呈负趋势。3)帕苏冰川在能量平衡方面与大陆冰川和极地大陆冰川在质量增加方面表现出相似的特征，这有助于帕苏冰川在2000-2020年的稳定性。我们的发现为了解帕苏冰川平衡状态的主导因素提供了有价值的见解，并可应用于解决喀喇昆仑其他冰川变化的问题。

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引用次数: 0

Global glacier albedo trends over 2000–2022: Drivers and implications 2000-2022年全球冰川反照率趋势：驱动因素和影响

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.002

Fei-Teng Wang , Lin Wang , Zhong-Qin Li , Zhen-Cai DU , Jing Ming

Despite the accelerated loss of global glacier mass in the 21st century, the dynamics governing glacier albedo and its role in this decline are not fully understood. Addressing this knowledge gap, this study investigates global glacier albedo trends, a critical but overlooked factor in the context of climate change. this investigation utilized the Randolph Glacier Inventory v7.0, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery, and ERA5-Land reanalysis data to decode the trends and drivers of glacier albedo from 2000 to 2022 on a global scale. We reported a general global albedo decline of 0.06% ± 0.04% (at 95% confidence level) per annum with regional deviations, predominantly driven by increases in surface air temperature across most regions, challenging the conclusions of earlier regional studies. Notably, in the Low Latitudes and South Asia East (SAE), as well as Antarctic and Subantarctic (AS) regions, aerosols (31% for SAE and 37% for AS) emerged as significant albedo influencers. Other factors, such as snowline migration, debris cover, glacier algae growth, and dust accumulation, are also known to influence glacier albedo but were not explicitly modeled in this study. These findings underscore the criticality of bespoke climate adaptation strategies, particularly addressing aerosol impacts, and reinforce the urgent need for a cohesive, global approach to glacier darkening and melt mitigation and protection.

尽管21世纪全球冰川质量的减少加速，但控制冰川反照率的动力学及其在这种减少中的作用尚未完全了解。为了解决这一知识差距，本研究调查了全球冰川反照率趋势，这是气候变化背景下一个关键但被忽视的因素。本研究利用Randolph Glacier Inventory v7.0、MODIS图像和ERA5-Land再分析数据，对2000 - 2022年全球冰川反照率的变化趋势和驱动因素进行了解码。我们报告的全球反照率总体下降幅度为每年0.06%±0.04%（95%置信水平），存在区域偏差，主要是由于大多数地区地表气温的升高，这对早期区域研究的结论提出了挑战。值得注意的是，在低纬度地区和南亚东部（SAE）以及南极和亚南极（as）地区，气溶胶（SAE占31%，as占37%）成为重要的反照率影响因素。其他因素，如雪线迁移、碎屑覆盖、冰川藻类生长和粉尘积累，也已知会影响冰川反照率，但本研究没有明确模拟。这些发现强调了定制的气候适应战略的重要性，特别是针对气溶胶影响的战略，并强调迫切需要采取一种凝聚力的全球方法来应对冰川变黑和减缓和保护冰川融化。

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引用次数: 0

The freezing‒thawing index and permafrost extent in pan-Arctic experienced rapid changes following the global warming hiatus 全球变暖中断后，泛北极地区冻融指数和永久冻土范围发生了快速变化

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.010

Hong-Xiang Guo , Wen-Quan Zhu , Cun-De Xiao , Cen-Liang Zhao , Li-Yuan Chen

Global ground surface temperatures experienced a rapid increase following the end of the global warming hiatus in 2013. The rapid temperature increase has potential to drive changes in FDD/TDD and permafrost extent in pan-Arctic. In this study, the temporal and spatial trends of air freezing‒thawing index (AFDD/ATDD) and ground surface freezing‒thawing index (GFDD/GTDD) in pan-Arctic from 2003 to 2023 were analyzed, with a particular focus on the changes between the decades preceding and following 2013. The changes in permafrost extent were also analyzed. The results indicate that from 2003 to 2023, the AFDD and GFDD significantly (p < 0.05) decreased at rates of 11.07 and 5.34 °C d per year, while the ATDD and GTDD significantly (p < 0.05) increased at rates of 7.69 and 4.34 °C d per year, respectively. The FDD/TDD experienced rapid changes after the global warming hiatus, with the decreasing rates in AFDD and GFDD intensifying after 2013 to 15.75 °C d per year and 6.27 °C d per year, respectively, and increasing rates in ATDD and GTDD intensifying after 2013 to 15.88 °C d per year and 8.50 °C d per year, respectively. The permafrost area in pan-Arctic experienced a decline from 13.4 × 10⁶ km² in 2003–2013 to 12.51 × 10⁶ km² in 2014–2023, representing a decadal reduction of 0.78 × 10⁶ km² (6.64%). The rapid decadal reduction in permafrost extent surpassed the decadal changes projected by historical trend since 1901, despite a slight expansion in southern Canada. The results provide novel insights into recent changes in FDD/TDD and permafrost extent.

2013年全球变暖停滞期结束后，全球地表温度迅速上升。气温的快速上升有可能推动泛北极地区FDD/TDD和永久冻土范围的变化。本文分析了2003 - 2023年泛北极地区空气冻融指数（AFDD/ATDD）和地表冻融指数（GFDD/GTDD）的时空变化趋势，重点分析了2013年前后几十年的变化趋势。分析了多年冻土的变化。结果表明，从2003年到2023年，AFDD和GFDD显著(p <；0.05)以11.07°C d /年和5.34°C d /年的速率下降，而ATDD和GTDD显著(p <；0.05)分别以7.69°C d /年和4.34°C d /年的速率升高。全球变暖中断后，FDD/TDD变化迅速，2013年后AFDD和GFDD的下降速率分别增强至15.75°C d /年和6.27°C d /年，而ATDD和GTDD的上升速率分别增强至15.88°C d /年和8.50°C d /年。泛北极多年冻土区面积从2003-2013年的13.4 × 106 km2减少到2014-2023年的12.51 × 106 km2，年代际减少0.78 × 106 km2（6.64%）。自1901年以来，多年冻土面积的快速年代际减少超过了历史趋势预估的年代际变化，尽管在加拿大南部略有扩大。结果为FDD/TDD和永久冻土范围的近期变化提供了新的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding water flowpaths and origins in an Arctic Alaskan basin: Implications for permafrost hydrology under global warming 了解北极阿拉斯加盆地的水流路径和起源：全球变暖对永久冻土水文的影响

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.001

Hyejung Jung , Jinho Ahn , Go Iwahana , Jeonghoon Lee

Global warming is progressing more rapidly in the Arctic compared with other regions of the world, and the increasing temperature has caused gradual permafrost thaw, resulting in significant changes in hydrological processes. However, the quantitative contributions of different water sources to Arctic watersheds under ongoing climate change remain poorly understood. Therefore, this study aims to address this gap by applying a water isotope-based mixing model to better quantify the sources and pathways of water flow in permafrost-affected catchments. In this study, isotopic and chemical data were used to determine the water sources and flowpaths of the Sagavanirktok (Sag) River on the North Slope in Alaska (USA) in the summer of 2022. Results obtained using a Bayesian mixing model indicate that meltwater from permafrost ice wedges contributes 17.7% upstream and 22.2% downstream to the Sag River. At the upstream with a frozen active layer or transient layer (including seasonal intrasediment ice), lower active layer water (mineral-rich) and upper active layer water (organic-rich) accounted for 31.5% and 18.1%, respectively. By contrast, at the downstream, the contribution of active layer water was 26.9%, which was similar to that of the other sources. The sources and flowpaths of Arctic freshwater affect changes in the geochemical characteristics of the freshwater, which is channeled to the Arctic Ocean through major Arctic rivers. This study quantitatively assesses permafrost ice wedge melt in an Arctic basin and provides insights to facilitate investigations of hydrological processes and geochemical changes associated with climate change in Arctic water systems.

与世界其他地区相比，全球变暖在北极的发展速度更快，气温上升导致永久冻土逐渐融化，导致水文过程发生重大变化。然而，在持续的气候变化下，不同水源对北极流域的定量贡献仍然知之甚少。因此，本研究旨在通过应用基于水同位素的混合模型来解决这一空白，以更好地量化受永久冻土影响的流域的水流来源和途径。在这项研究中，利用同位素和化学数据确定了2022年夏天美国阿拉斯加北坡Sagavanirktok（洼地）河的水源和水流路径。贝叶斯混合模型结果表明，多年冻土冰楔融水对凹陷河上游和下游的贡献分别为17.7%和22.2%。上游有冻结活跃层或瞬态层（含季节性沉积物内冰），下层活跃层水（富矿物质）和上层活跃层水（富有机物）分别占31.5%和18.1%。下游活动层水的贡献率为26.9%，与其他水源的贡献率相似。北极淡水的来源和流动路径影响着淡水地球化学特征的变化，这些淡水通过北极主要河流流入北冰洋。本研究定量评估了北极盆地的永久冻土冰楔融化，并为促进北极水系统中与气候变化相关的水文过程和地球化学变化的调查提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Evolution of supraglacial lakes over the pan-Antarctic ice sheet between 2014 and 2022: Assessment and the control factors 2014 - 2022年泛南极冰盖上冰上湖泊的演变：评价与控制因素

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.005

Xiao-Yi Shen , Chang-Qing Ke , Hai-Li Li , Yu Cai , Yao Xiao , Meng-Meng Li

Widespread supraglacial lakes (SGLs) across the Antarctic surface can accelerate land ice flow and be linked to ice shelf disintegration, further affecting sea-level rise projections. However, previous studies usually focused on SGLs at regional scale or some typical ice shelves, and underestimated the distribution and area of SGLs. Thus, the current Antarctic-wide SGL distribution and variability information is still limited, and the present status and possible influence on ice shelf stability are also largely unknown. Here, we used more than 110,000 Landsat 8 images to detect SGLs across Antarctica (north of 83°S) in austral summer from 2014 to 2022 by using a well-constructed threshold-based method. Overall, most SGLs were located on ice shelves, covering 79% of the total area; the largest SGL areas were found in East Antarctica (79%, 2222 km²), far exceeding the SGL areas in Antarctic Peninsula (20%, 473 km²) and West Antarctica (1%, 23 km²). SGL area gains and declines were found in the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica, respectively, while East Antarctica experienced relatively high interannual variabilities due to the presence of some ice shelves with asynchronous variation patterns. Larger collapse risks are found for smaller ice shelves; ice shelves in East Antarctica are relatively unstable, and disintegration risk is increasing for some ice shelves in Antarctic Peninsula. Glaciological factors are closely related to the location of SGLs, and temperature, precipitation and winds are strongly linked to SGL evolution. This study is expected to enhance the reliability of existing Antarctic SGL dataset by providing a more comprehensive dataset, and offer detailed insights into the relationship between SGLs, climatic factors, and near-surface conditions. Additionally, it examines the risks of ice shelf collapse caused by SGLs, which is essential for understanding the SGL dynamics and their impacts.

南极表面广泛存在的冰上湖（SGLs）可以加速陆地冰的流动，并与冰架解体有关，从而进一步影响海平面上升的预测。然而，以往的研究大多集中在区域尺度或典型冰架上，低估了SGLs的分布和面积。因此，目前南极洲范围内的SGL分布和变率信息仍然有限，其现状及其对冰架稳定性的可能影响也在很大程度上是未知的。在这里，我们使用了11万多张Landsat 8图像，通过构建良好的基于阈值的方法，在2014年至2022年的南部夏季探测南极洲（83°S以北）的SGLs。总体而言，大多数SGLs位于冰架上，占总面积的79%；东南极洲（79%,2222 km2）最大，远远超过南极半岛（20%,473 km2）和西南极洲（1%,23 km2）。南极半岛和西南极洲的SGL面积分别增加和减少，而东南极洲由于存在一些具有非同步变化模式的冰架而经历了相对较高的年际变化。较小的冰架崩塌风险较大；东南极洲冰架相对不稳定，南极半岛部分冰架的崩解风险正在增大。冰川学因素与SGLs的位置密切相关，温度、降水和风与SGLs的演变密切相关。本研究有望通过提供更全面的数据集来提高现有南极SGL数据集的可靠性，并为SGLs与气候因子和近地表条件之间的关系提供详细的见解。此外，它还研究了由SGLs引起的冰架崩塌的风险，这对于理解SGLs动力学及其影响至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern Pakistan 气候变化对巴基斯坦北部N-15高速公路沿线滑坡的影响

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.004

Muhammad Ramzan , Peng Cui , Daniya Ualiyeva , Hamza Mukhtar , Nazir Ahmed Bazai , Muhammad Aslam Baig

Landslides, which are aggravated by climate change, greatly threaten mountainous regions like northern Pakistan. However, existing research lacks a complete, region-specific analysis of the climatic and environmental factors driving landslides across various climatic zones, specifically in vulnerable areas such as northern Pakistan. This study explores the N-15 Highway in northern Pakistan. This region is frequently impacted by landslides induced by extreme climatic events, including heavy rainfall and flooding, which usually lead to blockages along the route. We collected a complete landslide inventory using 455 satellite images from 1990 to 2023 and ground surveys. We also analysed the relationship between landslides and climate change over the period of 1990–2023, encompassing soil moisture, vegetation, precipitation, temperature and snow cover. Using meteorological data, we found that the frequency of landslides rose exponentially from 1990 to 2023 due to the impacts of climate change. Especially after 2005, substantial increases in precipitation, temperature and snowmelt led to a more significant rise in landslide occurrences (p < 0.05). In the warm season (April–October), 84.1% of the landslides occurred, which were mainly due to precipitation and snowmelt. Balakot, Babusar–Naran and Chilas were the primary areas along the highway, each with distinct landslide mechanisms. In the Balakot region, which is characterised by sub-tropical conditions, high precipitation played the leading role in landslide occurrences. Landslides at Babusar–Naran, which is known for Alpine conditions, were mostly driven by precipitation, soil moisture fluctuations and snowmelt dynamics. Geological reasons and high temperatures influenced the Chilas region, which is characterised by semi-arid conditions. The EC-Earth3 model from CMIP6 predicts a 1.6–6.5 °C warming and a 35% rise in precipitation by 2100, with more extreme variations under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These changes are likely to result in a rise in the frequency of landslides. We suggest improving ground observation networks and utilising multiple datasets to better understand the relationship between landslides and climatic variables, which enables highly accurate risk assessment and management in high-mountain areas under the warming climate.

由于气候变化而加剧的山体滑坡严重威胁着巴基斯坦北部等山区。然而，现有的研究缺乏对驱动不同气候带、特别是在巴基斯坦北部等脆弱地区的山体滑坡的气候和环境因素的完整的、特定区域的分析。本研究探讨了巴基斯坦北部的N-15高速公路。该地区经常受到极端气候事件（包括暴雨和洪水）引发的山体滑坡的影响，这通常会导致沿线的堵塞。我们利用1990年至2023年的455张卫星图像和地面调查收集了完整的滑坡清单。我们还分析了1990-2023年期间山体滑坡与气候变化之间的关系，包括土壤湿度、植被、降水、温度和积雪。利用气象数据分析发现，受气候变化的影响，1990 - 2023年滑坡发生频率呈指数级上升。特别是2005年以后，降水量、气温和融雪量的大幅度增加，导致滑坡的发生更为显著(p <；0.05)。在暖季（4 - 10月）发生的滑坡占84.1%，主要是降水和融雪造成的。Balakot， Babusar-Naran和Chilas是高速公路沿线的主要地区，每个地区都有不同的滑坡机制。巴拉科特地区属于亚热带气候，高降水是滑坡发生的主要原因。巴布萨尔-纳兰的山体滑坡主要是由降水、土壤湿度波动和融雪动态驱动的。地质原因和高温影响了奇拉斯地区，该地区的特点是半干旱条件。CMIP6的EC-Earth3模式预测到2100年升温1.6-6.5°C，降水增加35%，在SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下变化更为极端。这些变化很可能导致山体滑坡的频率上升。我们建议改进地面观测网络，利用多数据集来更好地了解滑坡与气候变量之间的关系，从而实现气候变暖下高山地区的高精度风险评估和管理。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the combined effect of China's restarting of the CCER market: Coupling of CGE and GAINS models 中国CCER市场重启的综合效应评估——基于CGE和GAINS模型的耦合

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.007

Yuan-Ying Chi , Yang-Yi Zhang , Bao-Liu Liu , Meng-Wan Zhang , Jia-Lin Li , Guo-Zheng Li

China's relaunch of the Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) market is essential to the operation of the carbon emission trading market. Traditional single policy effect evaluation models cannot comprehensively reflect the economic and environmental impacts brought about by China's restart of the CCER market. To effectively assess the comprehensive policy effects of introducing the CCER into the carbon trading mechanism in the power industry, it is necessary to construct a coupled model for policy effect evaluation. Therefore, against the backdrop of China's restart of the CCER market and utilizing China's 2020 input–output table, we have developed a comprehensive assessment model. This model couples a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model with a greenhouse gas and air pollution interactions and synergies model to analyze the effects of introducing CCERs into the carbon trading mechanism in the power industry on the economy, energy, residents' welfare, and environmental health. Results show that restarting the CCER market leads to a gradual increase in the gap between the price of carbon allowances and the price of CCERs. Carbon trading and the CCER mechanism exert a considerable inhibiting effect on the growth of total energy consumption, and the proportion of nonfossil energy on the consumption side is forecasted to exceed 80% by 2060. In terms of residents' welfare, the introduction of CCERs into the carbon trading mechanism does not substantially improve the welfare level of residents but drastically reduces the level of residents' carbon emissions. Furthermore, this study confirms that CCER restart can successfully stimulate pollutant emission reduction and effectively reduce the number of attributable deaths, which in turn enhances health benefits. We also provide targeted recommendations for the restart of the CCER market regarding the proportion of CCER offsets, the structure of population consumption, and regional emission reduction policies to help facilitate the smooth operation of the carbon trading market.

中国重新启动认证自愿减排（CCER）市场对碳排放交易市场的运作至关重要。传统的单一政策效果评价模型不能全面反映中国重启CCER市场所带来的经济和环境影响。为有效评估电力行业碳交易机制引入CCER的综合政策效果，有必要构建政策效果评价的耦合模型。因此，在中国重启CCER市场的背景下，利用中国2020年投入产出表，我们建立了一个综合评估模型。该模型将动态递归可计算一般均衡模型与温室气体与空气污染的相互作用和协同效应模型相结合，分析了在电力行业碳交易机制中引入CCERs对经济、能源、居民福利和环境健康的影响。结果表明，重新启动CCER市场导致碳配额价格与CCER价格之间的差距逐渐扩大。碳交易和CCER机制对能源消费总量增长的抑制作用较大，预计到2060年非化石能源占消费端的比重将超过80%。在居民福利方面，将CCERs引入碳交易机制并没有实质性地提高居民的福利水平，反而大幅降低了居民的碳排放水平。此外，本研究证实，重启CCER可以成功刺激污染物减排，有效降低可归因死亡人数，从而提高健康效益。我们还从碳排放补偿比例、人口消费结构、区域减排政策等方面为碳交易市场的重启提出了有针对性的建议，以促进碳交易市场的顺利运行。

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引用次数: 0

Fragmentation of ground surface freezing processes in Northeast China from 1950 to 2022 1950 - 2022年东北地区地表冻结过程的破碎化

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.002

Xi-Qiang Wang, Ren-Sheng Chen, Chun-Tan Han

Current studies mainly employ the onset and end dates of freezing, freeze duration and freeze depth to describe the freeze state, often overlooking the discontinuous nature of the freezing process. In this study, the dynamics of the ground surface freezing processes in Northeast China (NEC) was systematically analysed using ERA5-Land reanalysis datasets from 1950 to 2022, and a new and fragmentation-focused perspective was adopted. The ground surface (0−7 cm in depth) temperature obtained from the ERA5-Land dataset performed well in detecting freeze days when compared with the observations (5 cm in depth) in NEC. From 1950 to 2022, the freezing processes in NEC became increasingly fragmented, with the number of freeze interruptions increasing at a rate of 0.04 times per decade (p < 0.05) and the freeze fragmentation degree rising at a rate of 0.07 times per 100 d per decade (p < 0.01). Regional differences in the spatial and temporal variations of the freezing process fragmentation were also detected. Further analysis suggested that a significant increase (p < 0.05) in the number of freeze–thaw cycle events and thaw days within the shortened freeze period (−1.8 d per decade; p < 0.01) may partially increase the probability of freezing process fragmentation. Moreover, the freeze fragmentation degree was positively and significantly correlated with air and skin temperatures (p < 0.01), while it was negatively and significantly correlated with snow cover duration and volumetric soil moisture (p < 0.05).

目前的研究主要采用冻结开始和结束日期、冻结持续时间和冻结深度来描述冻结状态，往往忽略了冻结过程的不连续性。利用1950 - 2022年的ERA5-Land再分析数据，系统分析了东北地区地表冻结过程的动态特征，并采用了新的碎片化视角。ERA5-Land数据集获得的地表（0 ~ 7 cm深度）温度与NEC的观测值（5 cm深度）相比，在探测冰冻日方面表现良好。从1950年到2022年，NEC的冻结过程变得越来越分散，冻结中断的次数以每十年0.04次的速度增加(p <；0.05)，冻结破碎度以每10年每100 d 0.07次的速率上升(p <；0.01)。冻结过程破碎化的时空变化也存在区域差异。进一步分析表明，显著增加(p <；冻融循环事件数和冻融日数(- 1.8 d / 10年；p & lt;0.01)可能部分增加冻结过程破碎的概率。冻裂程度与空气温度和皮肤温度呈显著正相关(p <；0.01)，与积雪时数、土壤体积水分呈极显著负相关(p <；0.05)。

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引用次数: 0