When attempting to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the implementation of multiple policy instruments may generate synergistic or antagonistic effects, thereby affecting the effectiveness of the policies. However, there is a lack of clear definitions and quantitative standards for determining synergistic and antagonistic effects, as well as systematic methodological framework for simulating and evaluating the policy effects between/among different instruments. The present study proposes a hybrid policy assessment framework integrating CGE modeling, and judgement matrix to simulate and assess synergistic or antagonistic effects between/among policy instruments within policy instrument combinations across environmental‒energy‒economic dimensions. Moreover, a multicriteria analysis method is employed to rank various policy instruments and combinations under different scenarios by coupling the three criteria indicators. The emission trading scheme (ETS), the new energy storage subsidy (SUB), and the mandatory energy efficiency improvement targets (MEET), are taken as the case study policy instruments. Based on the judgement matrix for synergistic and antagonistic effects, out of all the two-policy instrument-combination scenarios, strong synergistic effects are found for ETS and MEET on energy intensity reduction, for ETS and SUB on energy composition, and MEET and SUB on GDP, accounting for 10%; weak antagonistic effects are projected for ETS and SUB on social welfare, residents' income and GDP, and for MEET and SUB on energy composition, accounting for 13.3%; weak synergistic effects are projected for the rest combination scenarios, accounting for 76.7%. Strong antagonism is not anticipated. For all of the three-policy instrument-combination scenarios, strong synergistic effects are found on energy intensity reduction, accounting for 10%, weak synergistic effects are found on the other subindicators, accounting for 90%. Moreover, three-policy instrument-combinations can generally achieve relatively higher rankings than single-policy instrument and two-policy instrument-combinations in the multicriteria analysis. This study verifies the novelty and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid policy assessment framework in supporting policy-making and helping develop ‘correct’ policy instrument combination(s).
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