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Synergistic versus antagonistic effects for carbon reduction policy instruments in China 中国碳减排政策工具的协同与对抗效应
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.005
Zhi Guo , Xian-Qiang Mao , Yu-Bing Gao , Jian-Hong Lu , Zi-Chen Han , Qing-Yong Zhang , Zaenhaer Duman , Yong-Peng Chen , Yuan-Yuan Sun
When attempting to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the implementation of multiple policy instruments may generate synergistic or antagonistic effects, thereby affecting the effectiveness of the policies. However, there is a lack of clear definitions and quantitative standards for determining synergistic and antagonistic effects, as well as systematic methodological framework for simulating and evaluating the policy effects between/among different instruments. The present study proposes a hybrid policy assessment framework integrating CGE modeling, and judgement matrix to simulate and assess synergistic or antagonistic effects between/among policy instruments within policy instrument combinations across environmental‒energy‒economic dimensions. Moreover, a multicriteria analysis method is employed to rank various policy instruments and combinations under different scenarios by coupling the three criteria indicators. The emission trading scheme (ETS), the new energy storage subsidy (SUB), and the mandatory energy efficiency improvement targets (MEET), are taken as the case study policy instruments. Based on the judgement matrix for synergistic and antagonistic effects, out of all the two-policy instrument-combination scenarios, strong synergistic effects are found for ETS and MEET on energy intensity reduction, for ETS and SUB on energy composition, and MEET and SUB on GDP, accounting for 10%; weak antagonistic effects are projected for ETS and SUB on social welfare, residents' income and GDP, and for MEET and SUB on energy composition, accounting for 13.3%; weak synergistic effects are projected for the rest combination scenarios, accounting for 76.7%. Strong antagonism is not anticipated. For all of the three-policy instrument-combination scenarios, strong synergistic effects are found on energy intensity reduction, accounting for 10%, weak synergistic effects are found on the other subindicators, accounting for 90%. Moreover, three-policy instrument-combinations can generally achieve relatively higher rankings than single-policy instrument and two-policy instrument-combinations in the multicriteria analysis. This study verifies the novelty and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid policy assessment framework in supporting policy-making and helping develop ‘correct’ policy instrument combination(s).
在试图实现碳峰值和碳中和的目标时,多种政策工具的实施可能会产生协同效应或对抗效应,从而影响政策的有效性。然而,目前缺乏确定协同和对抗效应的明确定义和数量标准,也缺乏模拟和评价不同工具之间政策效应的系统方法框架。本研究提出了一个综合了CGE模型和判断矩阵的混合政策评估框架,以模拟和评估跨环境-能源-经济维度的政策工具组合中政策工具之间的协同或对抗效应。此外,采用多标准分析方法,通过耦合三个标准指标,对不同情景下的各种政策工具和组合进行排名。以碳排放交易计划(ETS)、新储能补贴(SUB)和强制性能效提高目标(MEET)作为案例研究的政策工具。基于协同效应和对抗效应的判断矩阵,在所有两种政策工具组合情景中,ETS和MEET对能源强度降低、ETS和SUB对能源构成、MEET和SUB对GDP具有较强的协同效应,占10%;ETS和SUB对社会福利、居民收入和GDP的拮抗作用较弱,MEET和SUB对能源构成的拮抗作用较弱,占13.3%;其余组合情景的协同效应较弱,占76.7%。预计不会出现强烈的对抗。在所有三种政策工具组合情景下,能源强度降低的协同效应较强,占10%,其他子指标的协同效应较弱,占90%。此外,在多标准分析中,三种政策工具组合通常比单一政策工具和两种政策工具组合获得相对较高的排名。本研究验证了所提出的混合政策评估框架在支持政策制定和帮助开发“正确的”政策工具组合方面的新颖性和有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Mass balance reconstruction of a reference glacier in central Asia during 2000–2023: Integrating simulation and in-situ measurements 2000-2023年中亚参考冰川的物质平衡重建:模拟与原位测量的综合
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.006
Pu-Yu Wang , Hong-Liang Li , Feng-Chen Yu , Jie He , Fang-Long Wang , Ye-Fei Yang , Yu-Ping Dai , Pu-Chen Chen , Ming Zhang
The scarcity of observational data on the mass balance of glaciershas hindered an accurate understanding of how glaciers respond to climate. The Muz Taw Glacier, the only glacier in the Sawir Mountains that is subject to long-term monitoring, serves as a reference glacier for this study. We utilized the COSIPY model and integrated both in-situ and geodetic data on glacier mass balance to reconstruct the mass balance of Muz Taw Glacier from 2000 to 2023. Over the past 24 years, the cumulative mass balance was found to be −18.5550 m w.e., with an average annual mass balance of −0.7731 m w.e. Changes in mass balance can be categorized into two distinct phases: remarkable mass loss from 2000 to 2008, exhibiting an average annual value of −0.7973 m w.e.; followed by another comparable period from 2009 to 2017 with an average annual value of −0.8045 m w.e. A notable deceleration in mass loss occurred between 2018 and 2023, during which the average annual loss decreased to −0.6896 m w.e. Throughout 2000–2023, Muz Taw Glacier experienced persistent mass loss influenced by multiple factors as revealed through energy budget analysis: net radiation accounted for 63%, sensible heat flux contributed 18%, latent heat flux played a minor negative role −13%, ground heat flux represented −5%, while precipitation heat flux had a negligible contribution (1%). The uncertainty analysis indicates that our reconstructed sequence of mass balance is reliable. Furthermore, climate response analysis suggests that summer temperature emerges as the predominant factor governing changes in glacial dynamics. When compared with other monitored glaciers located within adjacent westerly-dominated regions, it appears that the mass loss rate of Muz Taw Glacier has been slowing down since 2018. This study investigates the interaction between glacier and climate using a full−component glacier energy−mass balance model. It helps understand the ablation processes and mechanisms of glaciers in Central Asia and provide a basis for predicting glacier water resources.
关于冰川物质平衡的观测数据的缺乏阻碍了对冰川如何响应气候的准确理解。Muz Taw冰川是萨维尔山脉唯一被长期监测的冰川,是本研究的参考冰川。利用COSIPY模型,结合冰川物质平衡的原位和大地测量数据,重建了2000 - 2023年木兹陶冰川的物质平衡。近24 a累积质量平衡为−18.5550 m w.e,年平均质量平衡为−0.7731 m w.e,质量平衡变化可分为两个阶段:2000 ~ 2008年质量损失显著,年平均质量平衡为−0.7973 m w.e;其次是2009 - 2017年,平均年损失量为- 0.8045 m w.e。在2018 - 2023年期间,质量损失量出现明显减速,年均损失量降至- 0.6896 m w.e。通过能量收支分析,发现2000-2023年期间,Muz Taw冰川在多种因素的影响下持续质量损失。净辐射占63%,感热通量占18%,潜热通量负作用较小(- 13%),地表热通量负作用较小(- 5%),而降水热通量的贡献可忽略不计(1%)。不确定度分析表明重建的质量平衡序列是可靠的。此外,气候响应分析表明,夏季温度是控制冰川动力学变化的主要因素。与位于邻近西部主导地区的其他监测冰川相比,自2018年以来,木兹陶冰川的质量损失率似乎有所放缓。本研究利用全分量冰川能量-物质平衡模式研究了冰川与气候的相互作用。这有助于了解中亚地区冰川消融过程和机制,并为冰川水资源预测提供依据。
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引用次数: 0
Expansion of thermokarst lakes along the Mo’he county section of National Highway G111 in Northeast China during 1989–2020 1989-2020年东北G111国道磨河县段热岩溶湖扩展特征
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.007
Jun-He Liang , Shuai Huang , Xiao-Ying Jin , Lin Yang , Wen-Hui Wang , Jian-Jun Tang , Ze Zhang , Shan-Zhen Li , Xiang-Long Li , Jin-Bang Zhai , Xue Yang , An-Yuan Li , Lan-Zhi Lü , Rui-Xia He , Xiao-Ying Li , Raul-David Șerban , Hui-Jun Jin
Thermokarst lake dynamics crucially affect permafrost degradation, greenhouse gas emissions, hydrological and geomorphic processes and ecological responses in cold-region environments. However, the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of thermokarst lakes in mid- to high-latitude regions characterised by discontinuous, sporadic and isolated patches of permafrost, such as Northeast China, remain insufficiently investigated, particularly in the context of their long-term interactions with climatic and anthropogenic factors. This study integrates machine learning techniques with Landsat imagery to investigate changes in the number and area of thermokarst lakes along the Mo’he county section of National Highway G111 in the northern Da Xing’anling Mountains from 1989 to 2020. Results indicate a 243.7% increase in the number of lakes larger than 0.1 hm2 (from 355 to 865) and a 345.3% expansion in total lake area (from 233.6 to 806.6 hm2), with the most significant changes (p < 0.05) occurring in riverine and anthropogenically disturbed areas. Lake expansion is significantly correlated with land use indicators and climatic factors, including cropland area (r = 0.96), built-up area (r = 0.97), and potential evapotranspiration (r = 0.94). These findings suggest that anthropogenic disturbances, such as road construction and land use change, have intensified permafrost thaw by increasing ground heat flux and altering surface hydrology. Moreover, the interplay between climate warming and human activities has accelerated thermokarst lake expansion. This study underscores the need for land-use planning and highlights the importance of identifying disturbance-prone areas to support sustainable development and ecosystem management in permafrost regions.
热岩溶湖动态对寒区冻土退化、温室气体排放、水文地貌过程和生态响应具有重要影响。然而,在以不连续、零星和孤立的多年冻土带为特征的中高纬度地区,如中国东北,热岩溶湖的时空演变及其驱动机制的研究仍然不够充分,特别是在其与气候和人为因素的长期相互作用的背景下。本研究将机器学习技术与Landsat图像相结合,研究了1989 - 2020年大兴安岭北部G111国道磨河县段热岩溶湖数量和面积的变化。结果表明:湖泊面积大于0.1 hm2的湖泊数量增加了243.7%(从355个增加到865个),湖泊总面积增加了345.3%(从233.6个增加到806.6个hm2),其中河流和人为干扰区变化最显著(p < 0.05)。湖泊扩张与耕地面积(r = 0.96)、建成区面积(r = 0.97)、潜在蒸散量(r = 0.94)等土地利用指标和气候因子呈显著相关。这些发现表明,人为干扰,如道路建设和土地利用变化,通过增加地表热通量和改变地表水文,加剧了多年冻土融化。此外,气候变暖和人类活动的相互作用加速了热岩溶湖的扩张。这项研究强调了土地利用规划的必要性,并强调了确定易受干扰地区对支持永冻土地区的可持续发展和生态系统管理的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Interpretable soil moisture prediction based on the SABO-CONV1D-BiLSTM model on the Tibetan Plateau
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.08.008
Hong-Lin Yan , Hui-Jun Jin , Sheng-Rong Zhang , Ze Zhang , Xiao-Ying Jin , Hu Zhang , Shan-Zhen Li
The limited regional adaptability of soil moisture prediction models constrains their application under complex climatic conditions. Enhancing modeling accuracy and predictive capability is crucial for improving the precision of climate simulations and the effectiveness of extreme weather early warnings. This study proposes an interpretable and generalizable soil moisture prediction approach that employs the SABO algorithm to optimize CONV1D-BiLSTM model. The model's performance was evaluated and validated at Linzhi, Dangxiong, Mozhugongka, and Xietongmen in the southwestern Tibetan Plateau. Results indicate that, across four distinct environmental settings, the proposed model achieved an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.859 and an average coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.929. Furthermore, using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method, soil temperature and relative humidity were identified as key features across multiple stations. This method enhances the understanding of soil moisture dynamics in the context of climate change and provides a powerful tool for climate risk assessment and early warning on the Tibetan Plateau region.
土壤湿度预测模型的区域适应性有限,制约了其在复杂气候条件下的应用。提高模拟精度和预测能力是提高气候模拟精度和极端天气预警有效性的关键。本研究提出了一种可解释和可推广的土壤湿度预测方法,该方法采用SABO算法对CONV1D-BiLSTM模型进行优化。结果表明,在四种不同的环境设置下,该模型的平均均方根误差(RMSE)为1.859,平均决定系数(R2)为0.929。此外,利用SHapley加性解释(SHAP)方法,土壤温度和相对湿度被确定为多个站点的关键特征。
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引用次数: 0
Climate change adaptation technology development of key socioeconomic sectors and ecosystem in China 中国重点社会经济部门和生态系统适应气候变化技术发展
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.006
Yin-Long Xu, Kuo Li, Xin-Yue Zhang, Ming-Yue Zhao
Adaptation technology plays a crucial role in achieving adaptation goals, but its development remains disorganised and unsystematic. To efficiently support the implementation of adaptation actions, fostering innovation in adaptation technology is urgently needed. In this study, adaptation technologies were firstly collected from China's four National Assessment Reports on Climate Change to create a technology list. The adaptation technologies were then categorised into four components: reducing climatic hazards, diminishing exposure, decreasing vulnerability and increasing adaptive capacity. These categories were further applied to sectors such as agriculture, ecosystem, water resources, human health and energy. Comparison results of the archived adaptation technologies in the four National Assessment Reports, with the development targets outlined in China's Special Science & Technology Plan on Climate Change, revealed that while adaptation technologies have been enriched in China, substantial gaps remain. These gaps arise from an imbalance in the development of adaptation technologies across different socioeconomic sectors, a lack of integration of these technologies into a systematic package and weak linkages between the attributes of adaptation technologies and climate risk levels. We propose that the adaptation technology system should be developed based on the theoretical mechanisms of adaptation, with the main goal of efficiently reducing climate risk. The framework for the adaptation technology system should be comprehensive, considering the synergy between adaptation and mitigation. The framework should also be constructed with logical layers that address opportunities and dangers from climate change across multiple spatiotemporal scales, while capturing the nexus between various sectors. Incremental and transformational adaptation should be considered as two basic categories of the adaptation technology system, each corresponding to different climate risk levels.
适应技术在实现适应目标方面发挥着至关重要的作用,但适应技术的发展仍然缺乏组织和系统。为了有效地支持适应行动的实施,迫切需要促进适应技术的创新。在本研究中,首先从中国的四份气候变化国家评估报告中收集适应技术,创建一个技术列表。然后将适应技术分为四个部分:减少气候危害、减少暴露、降低脆弱性和增加适应能力。这些类别进一步适用于农业、生态系统、水资源、人类健康和能源等部门。将四份国家评估报告中存档的适应技术与中国气候变化科技专项规划提出的发展目标进行对比,发现中国的适应技术虽然有所丰富,但仍存在较大差距。这些差距是由于适应技术在不同社会经济部门的发展不平衡,这些技术缺乏整合到一个系统的一揽子计划中,以及适应技术的属性与气候风险水平之间的联系薄弱造成的。我们建议以有效降低气候风险为主要目标,在适应理论机制的基础上发展适应技术体系。适应技术系统的框架应该是全面的,考虑到适应和减缓之间的协同作用。该框架还应具有逻辑层次,以跨越多个时空尺度解决气候变化带来的机遇和危险,同时捕捉各部门之间的联系。增量适应和转型适应应被视为适应技术体系的两个基本类别,各自对应不同的气候风险水平。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying indirect economic losses from extreme events to inform global and local adaptation strategies 量化极端事件造成的间接经济损失,为全球和地方适应战略提供信息
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.001
Bo-Wen Wang , Yi He , Wen-Hao Wu , Fei Teng
Existing studies on extreme event attribution are typically event-specific, particularly those conducted since the early 2000s. They primarily focus on direct economic losses to people and physical assets while overlooking the broader indirect losses that ripple through supply chains. Here, we combine disaster data with attribution studies and employ a global multi-regional input‒output model to assess both direct and indirect economic losses from droughts, floods, and storms attributable to anthropogenic climate change between 2009 and 2019. Our findings reveal that such extreme events cause 60.32 billion USD in direct economic losses and 65.07 billion USD in indirect economic losses annually—together accounting for about 46% of total losses from all extreme events. Climate adaptation investments are urgently needed in sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, construction, transportation, and finance, with vulnerable regions concentrated in parts of Asia. International trade and industry linkages amplify the domestic impact of international extreme events, with 17% of China's attributable losses stemming from disasters abroad. This suggests that overseas adaptation could yield domestic resilience benefits. This study underscores the interconnected nature of global economic resilience against climate change and supports the design of equitable, science-based international climate finance mechanisms.
现有的极端事件归因研究通常是针对特定事件的,特别是自21世纪初以来进行的研究。他们主要关注人员和实物资产的直接经济损失,而忽略了在供应链中波及的更广泛的间接损失。本研究将灾害数据与归因研究相结合,采用全球多区域投入产出模型评估了2009年至2019年间由人为气候变化造成的干旱、洪水和风暴的直接和间接经济损失。我们的研究结果表明,这类极端事件每年造成603.2亿美元的直接经济损失和650.7亿美元的间接经济损失,约占所有极端事件总损失的46%。制造业、农业、建筑、交通和金融等行业迫切需要气候适应投资,脆弱地区集中在亚洲部分地区。国际贸易和工业联系放大了国际极端事件对国内的影响,中国17%的可归因损失来自国外灾害。这表明,海外适应可能会带来国内弹性效益。本研究强调了全球经济抵御气候变化能力的相互关联性,并支持设计公平、科学的国际气候融资机制。
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引用次数: 0
Revealing the dual impacts of climate change and grazing on vegetation in Mongolia: Permafrost buffering and the paradox of greening 揭示气候变化和放牧对蒙古植被的双重影响:冻土缓冲和绿化悖论
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.005
Yun Ela , Tong-Hua Wu , Hasi Bagan , Xiao-Fan Zhu , Xiao-Dong Wu , Pei-Qing Lou , Dong Wang , Saruulzaya Adiya , Dashtseren Avirmed , Battogtokh Dorjgotov , Urtnasan Mandakh , Sainbuyan Bayarsaikhan
Mongolia's ecosystem is highly vulnerable to both climate change and overgrazing, which threaten its ecological stability and livestock husbandry. However, the lack of high-quality data has prevented a thorough investigation into how climate variability and grazing activities jointly affect vegetation growth. Here, we applied long-term satellite time series data, in situ observations, national statistics, and reanalysis data to investigate the annual variations in the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of vegetation growth from 2000 to 2018 in Mongolia. The relative contributions were qualified to understand how climatic variables (precipitation, air temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed) and livestock density affect vegetation growth via the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as a proxy. Our findings revealed that i) the NDVI exhibited a statistically significant increasing trend of 0.0023 per year (p < 0.05) during the peak growing month of July; ii) the dominant factors controlling vegetation growth included precipitation (53.1%), air temperature (33.9%), solar radiance (4.4%), wind speed (4.6%) and livestock density (4.0%); iii) accounting for the memory effects of vegetation improved the explanatory power of vegetation growth variations; iv) precipitation and air temperature at the onset of the spring growing season were critical for the annually peak vegetation growth; v) permafrost reduced vegetation sensitivity to variations in precipitation and air temperature, thereby extending the duration of vegetation memory; and vi) NDVI greening or apparent stability masked the actual degradation of rangelands. This study not only enhances our understanding of vegetation changes in response to environmental and anthropogenic drivers but also provides a scientific basis for adaptive management strategies in Mongolia.
蒙古的生态系统极易受到气候变化和过度放牧的影响,这对蒙古的生态稳定和畜牧业构成了威胁。然而,缺乏高质量的数据阻碍了对气候变率和放牧活动如何共同影响植被生长的彻底调查。本文利用长期卫星时间序列数据、现场观测数据、国家统计数据和再分析数据,研究了2000 - 2018年蒙古植被生长时空格局和驱动因素的年变化。通过归一化植被指数(NDVI),相对贡献值可以理解气候变量(降水、气温、太阳辐射和风速)和牲畜密度对植被生长的影响。结果表明:1)NDVI在生长高峰7月呈每年0.0023的显著上升趋势(p < 0.05);②控制植被生长的主导因子为降水(53.1%)、气温(33.9%)、太阳辐射(4.4%)、风速(4.6%)和牲畜密度(4.0%);Iii)考虑植被记忆效应提高了植被生长变化的解释力;(4)春季生长期开始时的降水量和气温对植被的年生长高峰起关键作用;V)多年冻土降低了植被对降水和气温变化的敏感性,从而延长了植被记忆的持续时间;NDVI绿化或表面稳定掩盖了草地的实际退化。该研究不仅加深了我们对蒙古植被变化响应环境和人为因素的认识,而且为蒙古适应性管理策略提供了科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
Effectively lowering climate risk with innovation in adaptation technology 通过适应技术创新有效降低气候风险
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.002
Yin-Long Xu, Fei Teng, Wen-Jia Cai
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引用次数: 0
The impact of climate change on wind and solar photovoltaic power potential and distribution in China 气候变化对中国风能和太阳能光伏发电潜力和分布的影响
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.015
Xiang-Rong Zhu, Jun-Hao Tian, Yu Wang
The cleanliness and sustainability of renewable energy resources, primarily wind and solar, position them as key technological choices in the global transformation to low-carbon development. However, as the share of RE in the power system continues to grow, research on the impacts of climate change on renewable energy is garnering attention. This study investigates the effects of climate change on the potential and distribution of wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) power in China, focusing on the implications for renewable energy adequacy, cost, and future trends. The results indicate that climate change has a slightly negative effect on China’s overall wind and solar energy potential nationwide, ranging from −2.8% to −0.5%. However, there is variation among provinces, ranging from −14.0% to 14.6%. Additionally, the impact of climate change on wind and solar resources varies spatially, an increase is observed in southern regions, while a decrease occurs in northern areas. The findings suggest that changes such as wind speed and solar radiation caused by climate change may diminish the potential for low-cost renewable energy power generation while augmenting the potential for high-cost power generation, which may result in higher overall power generation costs in China than previously anticipated. By considering the impacts of climate change, this study offers actionable insights for policymakers to enhance the deployment of renewable energy projects in the south provinces, for northern provinces, policy makers may exercise greater caution when planning wind and solar projects, taking into account not only current economic viability but also the potential for future cost fluctuations attributable to climate change.
可再生能源(主要是风能和太阳能)的清洁和可持续性使它们成为全球向低碳发展转型的关键技术选择。然而,随着可再生能源在电力系统中所占份额的不断增长,气候变化对可再生能源影响的研究越来越受到关注。本研究探讨了气候变化对中国风能和太阳能光伏发电潜力和分布的影响,重点讨论了气候变化对可再生能源充足性、成本和未来趋势的影响。结果表明,气候变化对中国风能和太阳能的整体潜力有轻微的负面影响,影响范围为- 2.8% ~ - 0.5%。然而,各省之间存在差异,从- 14.0%到14.6%不等。此外,气候变化对风能和太阳能资源的影响存在空间差异,南部地区增加,北部地区减少。研究结果表明,气候变化引起的风速和太阳辐射等变化可能会降低低成本可再生能源发电的潜力,同时增加高成本发电的潜力,这可能导致中国的总体发电成本高于此前的预期。通过考虑气候变化的影响,本研究为政策制定者提供了可操作的见解,以加强南部省份可再生能源项目的部署,对于北部省份,政策制定者在规划风能和太阳能项目时应更加谨慎,不仅要考虑当前的经济可行性,还要考虑气候变化导致的未来成本波动的可能性。
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引用次数: 0
Climate impacts on the supply–demand balance of China’s wind–solar energy system based on power grid transmission during the summer peak-load period 气候对夏季高峰负荷期中国电网输电网风电系统供需平衡的影响
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.008
Zi-Jian Zhao , Xing Chen , Zhi-Yuan Ma , Fang Yang , Hao-Nan Zhang
As China transitions towards a greener energy mix, especially using wind and solar energy, the reliability and stability of its renewable energy system, heavily reliant on grid transmission, face substantial challenges posed by climate variability. During summer peak-load periods, high temperatures exacerbate strain on electricity supply–demand dynamics. This study defines a power supply and demand gap (PSDG) index and investigates the intricate relationship between climate change and the supply‒demand balance of China’s renewable energy system, focusing specifically on the role of power grid transmission. Results show that electric power transmission can effectively mitigate climate-related risk, reducing it by an average of 5.3%. However, climate change poses a substantial threat to future energy supply‒demand balance, with meteorological variations potentially intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme operating conditions. Sensitivity analysis results indicate that supply-side and demand-side aspects account for 55% and 45% of the total PSDG index variation, respectively. We propose that energy planners in regions such as Hebei and Inner Mongolia, where climate change adversely impacts the PSDG index, should adapt their strategies to accommodate the consequences of climate change on wind–solar energy systems. This adaptation necessitates a comprehensive understanding of how varying climatic conditions affect the performance and reliability of renewable energy sources, thereby enabling the development of resilient and sustainable energy infrastructures.
随着中国向绿色能源结构转型,特别是利用风能和太阳能,严重依赖电网传输的可再生能源系统的可靠性和稳定性面临气候变化带来的重大挑战。在夏季高峰负荷期间,高温加剧了电力供需动态的紧张。本文定义了电力供需缺口(power supply and demand gap, PSDG)指数,探讨了气候变化与中国可再生能源系统供需平衡之间的复杂关系,重点研究了电网传输的作用。结果表明,电力传输可以有效降低气候相关风险,平均降低5.3%。然而,气候变化对未来的能源供需平衡构成了重大威胁,气象变化可能会加剧极端运行条件的频率和严重性。敏感性分析结果表明,供给侧和需求侧分别占总PSDG指数变化的55%和45%。我们建议,在气候变化对PSDG指数产生不利影响的河北和内蒙古等地区,能源规划者应调整其战略,以适应气候变化对风能-太阳能系统的影响。这种适应需要全面了解变化的气候条件如何影响可再生能源的性能和可靠性,从而促进有弹性和可持续的能源基础设施的发展。
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Advances in Climate Change Research
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