首页 > 最新文献

Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献

英文 中文
Risk assessment and adaptation technologies for island biodiversity conservation in China under climate change 气候变化下中国岛屿生物多样性保护风险评估与适应技术
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.007
Ye-Ding Xia , Ren-Qiang Li , Jie-Jie Sun , Shu-Lin Yu , Ming Xu
Islands are critically important but inherently fragile due to their isolation and limited size. Climate change poses escalating threats to island biodiversity, comprehensive and spatially explicit assessments are still limited, hindering the development of targeted adaptation strategies. Here, we integrated species distribution modeling, inundation modeling, extinction risk analysis, and spatial prioritization to assess the risks to China's island biodiversity from climate change. We applied two scenarios—SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5—over 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 to evaluate the risks to five key taxa, namely amphibians, birds, mammals, reptiles, and vascular plants. Future climate change might result in an extinction rate of 11.6%, 5.5%, 11.9%, 12.0% and 11.9% for amphibians, birds, mammals, reptiles, and vascular plants respectively under the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario and 19.0%, 8.9%, 20.6%, 19.6% and 20.6% respectively under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Additionally, 60 and 97 islands under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, are projected to lose at least one major taxonomic group by 2081–2100. High-risk zones, such as the islands near the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, are likely to face greater vulnerability than other islands in China. Our species- and island-specific results provide a scientific basis for developing targeted adaptation technologies, tailored to local island characteristics and species habitat dynamics. Recommended technologies include enhancing coastal engineering and restoring coastal shelter forest for island protection, expanding protected area networks for habitat preservation, and designating target habitat islands to support species relocation for high-risk species. Advanced monitoring technologies, such as AI-driven ecological sensors, are also critical for managing data-deficient and dynamic islands.
岛屿极其重要,但由于孤立和面积有限,岛屿本身就很脆弱。气候变化对岛屿生物多样性的威胁不断升级,全面和明确的空间评估仍然有限,阻碍了有针对性的适应战略的制定。本文采用物种分布模型、淹没模型、灭绝风险分析和空间优先级等方法,对气候变化对中国岛屿生物多样性的影响进行了综合评估。在2041-2060年、2061-2080年和2081-2100年期间,分别采用ssp2 -4.5和ssp5 -8.5两种情景,对两栖动物、鸟类、哺乳动物、爬行动物和维管植物5个主要分类群的风险进行了评估。未来气候变化可能导致SSP2-4.5情景下两栖类、鸟类、哺乳动物、爬行类和维管植物的灭绝率分别为11.6%、5.5%、11.9%、12.0%和11.9%,SSP5-8.5情景下分别为19.0%、8.9%、20.6%、19.6%和20.6%。此外,在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5等级下,预计到2081-2100年,分别有60个和97个岛屿将失去至少一个主要的分类群。高风险地区,如珠江三角洲和长江三角洲附近的岛屿,可能比中国其他岛屿面临更大的脆弱性。我们的物种和岛屿特异性结果为开发针对当地岛屿特征和物种栖息地动态的有针对性的适应技术提供了科学依据。建议的技术包括加强海岸工程和恢复海岸防护林以保护岛屿,扩大保护区网络以保护栖息地,以及指定目标栖息地岛屿以支持高风险物种的物种迁移。先进的监测技术,如人工智能驱动的生态传感器,对于管理数据不足和动态岛屿也至关重要。
{"title":"Risk assessment and adaptation technologies for island biodiversity conservation in China under climate change","authors":"Ye-Ding Xia ,&nbsp;Ren-Qiang Li ,&nbsp;Jie-Jie Sun ,&nbsp;Shu-Lin Yu ,&nbsp;Ming Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Islands are critically important but inherently fragile due to their isolation and limited size. Climate change poses escalating threats to island biodiversity, comprehensive and spatially explicit assessments are still limited, hindering the development of targeted adaptation strategies. Here, we integrated species distribution modeling, inundation modeling, extinction risk analysis, and spatial prioritization to assess the risks to China's island biodiversity from climate change. We applied two scenarios—SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5—over 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 to evaluate the risks to five key taxa, namely amphibians, birds, mammals, reptiles, and vascular plants. Future climate change might result in an extinction rate of 11.6%, 5.5%, 11.9%, 12.0% and 11.9% for amphibians, birds, mammals, reptiles, and vascular plants respectively under the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario and 19.0%, 8.9%, 20.6%, 19.6% and 20.6% respectively under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Additionally, 60 and 97 islands under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, are projected to lose at least one major taxonomic group by 2081–2100. High-risk zones, such as the islands near the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, are likely to face greater vulnerability than other islands in China. Our species- and island-specific results provide a scientific basis for developing targeted adaptation technologies, tailored to local island characteristics and species habitat dynamics. Recommended technologies include enhancing coastal engineering and restoring coastal shelter forest for island protection, expanding protected area networks for habitat preservation, and designating target habitat islands to support species relocation for high-risk species. Advanced monitoring technologies, such as AI-driven ecological sensors, are also critical for managing data-deficient and dynamic islands.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 787-799"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic impacts of sea level rise on China's coastal provinces under different adaptation strategies 不同适应策略下海平面上升对中国沿海省份的经济影响
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.005
Tian-Peng Wang , Fei Teng , Wen-Tian Li
As a country with some of the world's largest and most economically dynamic coastal regions, China faces rising threats from sea level rise. However, the lack of high-resolution, quantitative assessments of sea level rise impacts for China limits the development of effective adaptation policies in a region critical to global economic stability. To address this gap, this study refines and applies the Python Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (pyCIAM) to evaluate multiple adaptation options along China's segmented coastline. The model integrates coastal elevation, sea level rise projections, and capital and population trajectories to estimate economic impacts under different adaptation strategies. The results show that locally optimized adaptation strategies can reduce the cumulative losses by 2100 from 4.5 trillion USD under no adaptation to <0.9 trillion USD nationwide. Flexible strategies that adjust in real time reduce losses by up to 86%, offering both responsiveness and cost-efficiency. The reduction in losses is especially notable in economically developed provinces such as Shanghai (95%), Jiangsu (91%), and Zhejiang (89%), where dense populations and high-value assets increase the benefits of effective adaptation. These insights emphasize the necessity for integrating China's coastal economic and geographic details into adaptation strategies to optimize sea level rise responses and strengthen coastal resilience.
作为一个拥有世界上面积最大、经济最活跃的沿海地区的国家,中国面临着海平面上升的威胁。然而,缺乏对中国海平面上升影响的高分辨率定量评估,限制了在一个对全球经济稳定至关重要的地区制定有效的适应政策。为了解决这一差距,本研究改进并应用Python沿海影响和适应模型(pyCIAM)来评估中国分段海岸线的多种适应方案。该模型综合了沿海海拔、海平面上升预测以及资本和人口轨迹,以估计不同适应策略下的经济影响。结果表明,到2100年,局部优化的适应策略可使全国累计损失从不适应的4.5万亿美元减少到0.9万亿美元。灵活的实时调整策略可将损失减少高达86%,同时提供响应能力和成本效益。在经济发达省份,如上海(95%)、江苏(91%)和浙江(89%),损失的减少尤为显著,这些省份的人口密集和高价值资产增加了有效适应的效益。这些见解强调了将中国沿海经济和地理细节纳入适应战略的必要性,以优化海平面上升响应并加强沿海恢复力。
{"title":"Economic impacts of sea level rise on China's coastal provinces under different adaptation strategies","authors":"Tian-Peng Wang ,&nbsp;Fei Teng ,&nbsp;Wen-Tian Li","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.06.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a country with some of the world's largest and most economically dynamic coastal regions, China faces rising threats from sea level rise. However, the lack of high-resolution, quantitative assessments of sea level rise impacts for China limits the development of effective adaptation policies in a region critical to global economic stability. To address this gap, this study refines and applies the Python Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (pyCIAM) to evaluate multiple adaptation options along China's segmented coastline. The model integrates coastal elevation, sea level rise projections, and capital and population trajectories to estimate economic impacts under different adaptation strategies. The results show that locally optimized adaptation strategies can reduce the cumulative losses by 2100 from 4.5 trillion USD under no adaptation to &lt;0.9 trillion USD nationwide. Flexible strategies that adjust in real time reduce losses by up to 86%, offering both responsiveness and cost-efficiency. The reduction in losses is especially notable in economically developed provinces such as Shanghai (95%), Jiangsu (91%), and Zhejiang (89%), where dense populations and high-value assets increase the benefits of effective adaptation. These insights emphasize the necessity for integrating China's coastal economic and geographic details into adaptation strategies to optimize sea level rise responses and strengthen coastal resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 4","pages":"Pages 688-697"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geographic trends in asthma risk among children and adolescents across climate zones in Australia, 2004–2018 2004-2018年澳大利亚各气候带儿童和青少年哮喘风险的地理趋势
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.012
Jialu Wang , Javier Cortes-Ramirez , Wenbiao Hu
Despite the known regional variations in childhood and adolescent asthma prevalence across Australia, the complex interactions between geographic location, climate diversity, and asthma risk patterns remain critically underexplored. This study examined spatial patterns of asthma prevalence among children and adolescents (2004–2018) by analysing data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, categorized according to the Köppen-Geiger climate classification system, which integrates environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, and precipitation patterns to represent broader climatic conditions. We employed spatial clustering, survey-weighted logistic regression, and classification and regression tree analysis to identify region-specific risk factors. Results revealed distinct spatial patterns with ‘high-high’ clusters concentrated in southeastern Australia’s BSk (arid, steppe, cold), Cfa (temperate, no dry season, hot summer), and Cfb (temperate, no dry season, warm summer) climate. Male children (odds ratio (OR): 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06–1.52) with maternal depression (OR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.16–1.69) and a parental asthma history (OR: 2.96; 95% CI: 2.58–3.41) showed significantly elevated risk, while breastfeeding beyond six months corresponded with reduced risk (OR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.62–0.86). ‘Low-low’ clusters were observed in the Cfa zone. Risk factor importance varied by climate zone, with breastfeeding duration being most notable in the Aw (tropical, savannah) zone and age 2 emerging as a key threshold in several zones. These findings enable more precise identification of high-risk populations and climate-sensitive regions, supporting the development of targeted preventive strategies and climate-based early warning systems that will enhance asthma management effectiveness and reduce healthcare burdens across Australia.
尽管澳大利亚儿童和青少年哮喘患病率存在已知的区域差异,但地理位置、气候多样性和哮喘风险模式之间的复杂相互作用仍未得到充分探讨。本研究通过分析澳大利亚儿童纵向研究的数据,研究了2004-2018年儿童和青少年哮喘患病率的空间模式,该数据根据Köppen-Geiger气候分类系统进行分类,该系统整合了温度、湿度和降水模式等环境因素,以代表更广泛的气候条件。采用空间聚类、调查加权logistic回归、分类回归树分析等方法确定区域特异性危险因素。结果表明,澳大利亚东南部的BSk(干旱、草原、寒冷)、Cfa(温带、无旱季、夏季炎热)和Cfb(温带、无旱季、夏季温暖)气候具有明显的“高-高”集聚区。男童(优势比(OR): 1.27;95%可信区间(CI): 1.06-1.52)与母亲抑郁(OR: 1.40;95% CI: 1.16-1.69)和父母哮喘史(OR: 2.96;95% CI: 2.58-3.41)显示风险显著增加,而母乳喂养超过6个月的风险相应降低(OR: 0.73;95% ci: 0.62-0.86)。在Cfa区观察到“低-低”簇。风险因素的重要性因气候区而异,哺乳时间在热带草原地区最为显著,2岁在一些地区成为关键阈值。这些发现能够更精确地识别高危人群和气候敏感地区,支持有针对性的预防策略和基于气候的早期预警系统的发展,这将提高哮喘管理的有效性,减轻澳大利亚的医疗负担。
{"title":"Geographic trends in asthma risk among children and adolescents across climate zones in Australia, 2004–2018","authors":"Jialu Wang ,&nbsp;Javier Cortes-Ramirez ,&nbsp;Wenbiao Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the known regional variations in childhood and adolescent asthma prevalence across Australia, the complex interactions between geographic location, climate diversity, and asthma risk patterns remain critically underexplored. This study examined spatial patterns of asthma prevalence among children and adolescents (2004–2018) by analysing data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, categorized according to the Köppen-Geiger climate classification system, which integrates environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, and precipitation patterns to represent broader climatic conditions. We employed spatial clustering, survey-weighted logistic regression, and classification and regression tree analysis to identify region-specific risk factors. Results revealed distinct spatial patterns with ‘high-high’ clusters concentrated in southeastern Australia’s BSk (arid, steppe, cold), Cfa (temperate, no dry season, hot summer), and Cfb (temperate, no dry season, warm summer) climate. Male children (odds ratio (OR): 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06–1.52) with maternal depression (OR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.16–1.69) and a parental asthma history (OR: 2.96; 95% CI: 2.58–3.41) showed significantly elevated risk, while breastfeeding beyond six months corresponded with reduced risk (OR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.62–0.86). ‘Low-low’ clusters were observed in the Cfa zone. Risk factor importance varied by climate zone, with breastfeeding duration being most notable in the Aw (tropical, savannah) zone and age 2 emerging as a key threshold in several zones. These findings enable more precise identification of high-risk populations and climate-sensitive regions, supporting the development of targeted preventive strategies and climate-based early warning systems that will enhance asthma management effectiveness and reduce healthcare burdens across Australia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 613-622"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An integrated modelling framework for evaluating the synergistic impacts of low-carbon transitions and air pollution controls on air quality and health in Guangzhou, China 评估低碳转型和空气污染控制对中国广州空气质量和健康的协同影响的综合建模框架
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.010
Yun Shu , Yang Li , Yazhen Wu , Xiang-Zhao Feng , Sha-Sha Xu , Ya-Li Wang , Tong Ma , Jian-Hua Chen , Jian Gao , Shaohui Zhang , Ji-Zhang Huang
Climate policies that target carbon emissions can induce co-benefits for air quality. Previous urban studies have typically focused on either carbon reduction or air pollution control independently, but few have examined their combined effects on reducing carbon emissions and consequential environmental gains. We develop an integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of different low-carbon transitions and end-of-pipe controls on PM2.5 and ozone concentrations and associated premature mortality in the megacity of Guangzhou. The results show that the implementation of both deep carbon mitigation and aggressive air pollution control policies can reduce the city's pollutant emissions to 34%–51% of the 2020 levels by 2035. Consequently, the population-weighted PM2.5 concentration in 2035 is projected to decrease by 5 μg/m3 compared to the 2035 baseline scenario. However, the ozone concentration is expected to rise by 35 μg/m3 due to the reduced titration effect of NO on ozone. These changes are estimated to prevent approximately 3.0 thousand (95% CI: 2.0–3.9) PM2.5-related premature deaths, while increasing ozone-related premature deaths by approximately 1.6 thousand (95% CI: 0.7–2.7). Moreover, implementing multiregional integrated control measures in Guangzhou and its neighbouring cities yields greater air quality and health benefits for Guangzhou compared to local enforcement alone, resulting in 1.5 times more avoided PM2.5-related premature deaths. Additionally, the increase in ozone-related premature deaths from these cooperative emission control strategies is merely 0.3 times the figure observed under local enforcement alone. The transport and industry sectors play a crucial role in reducing air pollutant emissions, whereas reductions in the solvent use sector can help mitigate the adverse effects of reduced NOx on ozone pollution. These findings highlight the need for comprehensively multiregional strategies to balance the trade-offs between reducing PM2.5 and ozone-related health impacts, offering valuable insights for urban policy makers aiming to optimize both climate and air quality goals on a broader scale.
以碳排放为目标的气候政策可以为空气质量带来协同效益。以前的城市研究通常只关注碳减排或空气污染控制,但很少有人研究它们对减少碳排放和相应的环境收益的综合影响。我们开发了一个综合模型框架,以评估广州特大城市不同的低碳转型和末端控制对PM2.5和臭氧浓度以及相关的过早死亡率的影响。结果表明,到2035年,实施深度碳减排和积极的大气污染控制政策可以将城市污染物排放量降低到2020年水平的34%-51%。因此,2035年人口加权PM2.5浓度预计将比2035年基线情景降低5 μg/m3。但由于NO对臭氧的滴定作用减弱,预计臭氧浓度将上升35 μg/m3。据估计,这些变化可预防约3000例(95%置信区间:2.0-3.9)与pm2.5相关的过早死亡,同时使与臭氧相关的过早死亡增加约1600例(95%置信区间:0.7-2.7)。此外,在广州及其邻近城市实施多区域综合控制措施,与仅在当地实施相比,为广州带来了更大的空气质量和健康效益,避免与pm2.5相关的过早死亡的人数增加了1.5倍。此外,这些合作排放控制战略造成的与臭氧有关的过早死亡的增加仅是单独在地方执法下观察到的数字的0.3倍。运输和工业部门在减少空气污染物排放方面发挥着至关重要的作用,而溶剂使用部门的减少可以帮助减轻氮氧化物减少对臭氧污染的不利影响。这些研究结果强调,需要制定全面的多区域战略,以平衡减少PM2.5和臭氧相关健康影响之间的权衡,为旨在在更大范围内优化气候和空气质量目标的城市决策者提供有价值的见解。
{"title":"An integrated modelling framework for evaluating the synergistic impacts of low-carbon transitions and air pollution controls on air quality and health in Guangzhou, China","authors":"Yun Shu ,&nbsp;Yang Li ,&nbsp;Yazhen Wu ,&nbsp;Xiang-Zhao Feng ,&nbsp;Sha-Sha Xu ,&nbsp;Ya-Li Wang ,&nbsp;Tong Ma ,&nbsp;Jian-Hua Chen ,&nbsp;Jian Gao ,&nbsp;Shaohui Zhang ,&nbsp;Ji-Zhang Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate policies that target carbon emissions can induce co-benefits for air quality. Previous urban studies have typically focused on either carbon reduction or air pollution control independently, but few have examined their combined effects on reducing carbon emissions and consequential environmental gains. We develop an integrated modelling framework to assess the impacts of different low-carbon transitions and end-of-pipe controls on PM<sub>2.5</sub> and ozone concentrations and associated premature mortality in the megacity of Guangzhou. The results show that the implementation of both deep carbon mitigation and aggressive air pollution control policies can reduce the city's pollutant emissions to 34%–51% of the 2020 levels by 2035. Consequently, the population-weighted PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration in 2035 is projected to decrease by 5 μg/m<sup>3</sup> compared to the 2035 baseline scenario. However, the ozone concentration is expected to rise by 35 μg/m<sup>3</sup> due to the reduced titration effect of NO on ozone. These changes are estimated to prevent approximately 3.0 thousand (95% CI: 2.0–3.9) PM<sub>2.5</sub>-related premature deaths, while increasing ozone-related premature deaths by approximately 1.6 thousand (95% CI: 0.7–2.7). Moreover, implementing multiregional integrated control measures in Guangzhou and its neighbouring cities yields greater air quality and health benefits for Guangzhou compared to local enforcement alone, resulting in 1.5 times more avoided PM<sub>2.5</sub>-related premature deaths. Additionally, the increase in ozone-related premature deaths from these cooperative emission control strategies is merely 0.3 times the figure observed under local enforcement alone. The transport and industry sectors play a crucial role in reducing air pollutant emissions, whereas reductions in the solvent use sector can help mitigate the adverse effects of reduced NO<sub>x</sub> on ozone pollution. These findings highlight the need for comprehensively multiregional strategies to balance the trade-offs between reducing PM<sub>2.5</sub> and ozone-related health impacts, offering valuable insights for urban policy makers aiming to optimize both climate and air quality goals on a broader scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 636-650"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Recent warming trends in Antarctica revealed by multiple reanalysis 多重再分析揭示了南极最近的变暖趋势
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.003
Sai Wang , Guan-Cheng Li , Zi-Huan Zhang , Wen-Qian Zhang , Xin Wang , Deliang Chen , Wen Chen , Ming-Hu Ding
The lack of long-term in-situ observations hampers our ability to fully understand climate change in Antarctica. State-of-the-art reanalysis datasets fill a critical gap, and this study utilizes the ensemble mean from five reanalysis datasets to examine temperature changes and their associated mechanisms in Antarctica. The findings reveal that the entire Antarctic continent has experienced significant warming from 1980 to 2023, with a statistically significant warming rate of 0.12 °C per decade at the 0.05 level. Further analysis suggests that the warming in Antarctica is primarily driven by thermodynamic processes, contributing to an increase of approximately 0.22 °C per decade. In contrast, dynamic processes have caused an overall cooling of the Antarctic continent at a rate of −0.10 °C per decade, partially offsetting the effects of thermodynamic processes. Additionally, the ensemble mean confirms a notable shift in temperature trends in the early 2000s. Finally, the study shows that in East Antarctica, dynamic processes primarily drive the shift in temperature trends, while in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, thermodynamic processes are the main contributors. This research offers valuable insights into the complexities and mechanisms of climate change in Antarctica, emphasizing the importance of accurate predictions for future changes in this critical region.
缺乏长期的现场观测妨碍了我们充分了解南极洲气候变化的能力。最新的再分析数据集填补了一个关键的空白,本研究利用来自五个再分析数据集的总体平均值来研究南极洲的温度变化及其相关机制。研究结果表明,1980 - 2023年整个南极大陆经历了显著变暖,在0.05水平上,每10年的变暖速率在统计学上显著为0.12°C。进一步的分析表明,南极洲的变暖主要是由热力学过程驱动的,每十年增加约0.22°C。相比之下,动力过程导致南极大陆以每十年−0.10°C的速度整体降温,部分抵消了热力学过程的影响。此外,总体平均值证实了21世纪初温度趋势的显著变化。最后,研究表明,在东南极洲,动力过程主要驱动温度趋势的变化,而在西南极洲和南极半岛,热力过程是主要的驱动因素。这项研究对南极洲气候变化的复杂性和机制提供了有价值的见解,强调了对这一关键地区未来变化进行准确预测的重要性。
{"title":"Recent warming trends in Antarctica revealed by multiple reanalysis","authors":"Sai Wang ,&nbsp;Guan-Cheng Li ,&nbsp;Zi-Huan Zhang ,&nbsp;Wen-Qian Zhang ,&nbsp;Xin Wang ,&nbsp;Deliang Chen ,&nbsp;Wen Chen ,&nbsp;Ming-Hu Ding","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The lack of long-term <em>in-situ</em> observations hampers our ability to fully understand climate change in Antarctica. State-of-the-art reanalysis datasets fill a critical gap, and this study utilizes the ensemble mean from five reanalysis datasets to examine temperature changes and their associated mechanisms in Antarctica. The findings reveal that the entire Antarctic continent has experienced significant warming from 1980 to 2023, with a statistically significant warming rate of 0.12 °C per decade at the 0.05 level. Further analysis suggests that the warming in Antarctica is primarily driven by thermodynamic processes, contributing to an increase of approximately 0.22 °C per decade. In contrast, dynamic processes have caused an overall cooling of the Antarctic continent at a rate of −0.10 °C per decade, partially offsetting the effects of thermodynamic processes. Additionally, the ensemble mean confirms a notable shift in temperature trends in the early 2000s. Finally, the study shows that in East Antarctica, dynamic processes primarily drive the shift in temperature trends, while in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, thermodynamic processes are the main contributors. This research offers valuable insights into the complexities and mechanisms of climate change in Antarctica, emphasizing the importance of accurate predictions for future changes in this critical region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 447-459"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global prevalence of compound heatwaves from 1980 to 2022 1980年至2022年复合热浪的全球流行情况
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.010
Kun Zhang , Jin-Bao Li , Michael Kwok-Po Ng , Zheng-Fei Guo , Amos P.K. Tai , Shu-Wen Liu , Xiao-Rong Wang , Jie Zhang , Jin Wu
Global warming has led to increasing occurrence of hot extremes, yet our understanding of the compound heatwaves (CHW) of both day and night—the most threatening and harmful type—remains limited. Here we use the air temperature from ERA5-Land datasets to analyze key characteristics of global CHW from 1980 to 2022. Our results demonstrate a pronounced increase in global CHW, with an annual cumulative intensity rising by 3.32 °C per decade (p < 0.001), approximately four times greater than the increases observed in individual heatwave types of daytime (0.73 °C per decade, p < 0.001) and nighttime (0.78 °C per decade, p < 0.001), respectively. High latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the Arctic regions, have experienced the highest increases in CHW (>10 °C per decade), especially since 2005. Moreover, interannual variations of CHW are closely linked to major climate modes, displaying strong region-specific connections and varied lagged effect, particularly with ENSO and PDO in tropical regions. Altogether, these results reveal the unexpected prevalence of CHW in recent decades, emphasizing the urgent need to address its potential adverse impacts on human and ecosystem well-being.
全球变暖导致极端高温的发生越来越多,然而我们对白天和夜间的复合热浪(CHW)——最具威胁性和危害性的类型——的了解仍然有限。本文利用ERA5-Land数据集的气温,分析了1980 - 2022年全球CHW的关键特征。我们的研究结果表明,全球CHW显著增加,年累积强度每十年增加3.32°C (p <;0.001),大约是在个别白天热浪类型(0.73°C / 10年,p <;0.001)和夜间(每十年0.78°C, p <;分别为0.001)。北半球高纬度地区,特别是北极地区,经历了最高的CHW增加(每十年增加10°C),特别是自2005年以来。此外,CHW的年际变化与主要气候模式密切相关,表现出较强的区域关联性和不同的滞后效应,特别是与热带地区的ENSO和PDO。总之,这些结果揭示了近几十年来CHW的意外流行,强调了解决其对人类和生态系统健康潜在不利影响的迫切需要。
{"title":"Global prevalence of compound heatwaves from 1980 to 2022","authors":"Kun Zhang ,&nbsp;Jin-Bao Li ,&nbsp;Michael Kwok-Po Ng ,&nbsp;Zheng-Fei Guo ,&nbsp;Amos P.K. Tai ,&nbsp;Shu-Wen Liu ,&nbsp;Xiao-Rong Wang ,&nbsp;Jie Zhang ,&nbsp;Jin Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming has led to increasing occurrence of hot extremes, yet our understanding of the compound heatwaves (CHW) of both day and night—the most threatening and harmful type—remains limited. Here we use the air temperature from ERA5-Land datasets to analyze key characteristics of global CHW from 1980 to 2022. Our results demonstrate a pronounced increase in global CHW, with an annual cumulative intensity rising by 3.32 °C per decade (<em>p</em> &lt; 0.001), approximately four times greater than the increases observed in individual heatwave types of daytime (0.73 °C per decade, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.001) and nighttime (0.78 °C per decade, <em>p</em> &lt; 0.001), respectively. High latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the Arctic regions, have experienced the highest increases in CHW (&gt;10 °C per decade), especially since 2005. Moreover, interannual variations of CHW are closely linked to major climate modes, displaying strong region-specific connections and varied lagged effect, particularly with ENSO and PDO in tropical regions. Altogether, these results reveal the unexpected prevalence of CHW in recent decades, emphasizing the urgent need to address its potential adverse impacts on human and ecosystem well-being.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 565-575"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Life cycle CO2 emissions of various transformers under different scenarios with multiple functional units 具有多个功能单元的各种变压器在不同场景下的全生命周期CO2排放量
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.003
Chao Liu , Bo Miao , Shu-Zhen Li , Wan-Shui Yu , Qiu-Jie Yuan , Yu-Wei Cao , Yang Yu , Qing Yang
Despite extensive research on transformer life cycle carbon emissions, the selection of an appropriate functional unit remains challenging. Many commonly used functional units inadequately reflect transformer functionalities, hindering accurate comparisons across different voltage levels and capacities. This study performs a life cycle carbon emission analysis to evaluate the impact of different functional unit settings on ten transformers. The average emission per studied transformer is 223.47 t CO2eq. Carbon emission varies remarkably based on the choice of the functional unit, with values of 6955.40 kg CO2eq/MVA, 9.83 kg CO2eq/(MVA kV), 81.08 kg CO2eq/(kW h) and 1.36 × 10−4 kg CO2eq/(MW h kV). Metals are identified as the primary contributors to the overall carbon footprint of transformers, accounting for approximately 73.91% of total emissions, with steel contributing up to 42.98%. Selecting greener raw materials, employing recycled materials and using clean energy in production can help reduce transformer carbon emissions. Scenario analysis reveals that improvements in the electricity generation mix reduce emissions during transformer production by 9%–11%, depending on the level of improvement, with larger improvements demonstrating greater reduction rates. The findings of this study provide insights for selecting appropriate functional units for the carbon assessments of transformers and offer a reference for formulating targeted emission reduction strategies to support the power sector's low-carbon transition.
尽管对变压器生命周期碳排放进行了广泛的研究,但选择合适的功能单元仍然具有挑战性。许多常用的功能单元不能充分反映变压器的功能,阻碍了在不同电压水平和容量之间的准确比较。本研究采用全生命周期碳排放分析,评估不同功能单元设置对10台变压器的影响。每台变压器的平均排放量为223.47 t co2当量。不同功能单元的碳排放量差异显著,分别为6955.40 kg CO2eq/MVA、9.83 kg CO2eq/(MVA kV)、81.08 kg CO2eq/(kW h)和1.36 × 10−4 kg CO2eq/(MW h kV)。金属被确定为变压器总体碳足迹的主要贡献者,约占总排放量的73.91%,钢铁贡献高达42.98%。选择更环保的原材料、使用可回收材料和在生产中使用清洁能源可以帮助减少变压器的碳排放。情景分析显示,根据改善程度的不同,发电组合的改善可使变压器生产过程中的排放减少9%-11%,改善程度越大,减少率越高。研究结果可为变压器碳评估选择合适的功能单元提供参考,为制定有针对性的减排策略,支持电力行业的低碳转型提供参考。
{"title":"Life cycle CO2 emissions of various transformers under different scenarios with multiple functional units","authors":"Chao Liu ,&nbsp;Bo Miao ,&nbsp;Shu-Zhen Li ,&nbsp;Wan-Shui Yu ,&nbsp;Qiu-Jie Yuan ,&nbsp;Yu-Wei Cao ,&nbsp;Yang Yu ,&nbsp;Qing Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite extensive research on transformer life cycle carbon emissions, the selection of an appropriate functional unit remains challenging. Many commonly used functional units inadequately reflect transformer functionalities, hindering accurate comparisons across different voltage levels and capacities. This study performs a life cycle carbon emission analysis to evaluate the impact of different functional unit settings on ten transformers. The average emission per studied transformer is 223.47 t CO<sub>2</sub>eq. Carbon emission varies remarkably based on the choice of the functional unit, with values of 6955.40 kg CO<sub>2</sub>eq/MVA, 9.83 kg CO<sub>2</sub>eq/(MVA kV), 81.08 kg CO<sub>2</sub>eq/(kW h) and 1.36 × 10<sup>−4</sup> kg CO<sub>2</sub>eq/(MW h kV). Metals are identified as the primary contributors to the overall carbon footprint of transformers, accounting for approximately 73.91% of total emissions, with steel contributing up to 42.98%. Selecting greener raw materials, employing recycled materials and using clean energy in production can help reduce transformer carbon emissions. Scenario analysis reveals that improvements in the electricity generation mix reduce emissions during transformer production by 9%–11%, depending on the level of improvement, with larger improvements demonstrating greater reduction rates. The findings of this study provide insights for selecting appropriate functional units for the carbon assessments of transformers and offer a reference for formulating targeted emission reduction strategies to support the power sector's low-carbon transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 651-662"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate change would largely offset labor capacity increment fueled by China’s two-child policy 气候变化将在很大程度上抵消中国二孩政策带来的劳动力增量
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.002
Yun-Yun Ban , Qiu-Hong Tang , Xing-Cai Liu , Xiao-Jie Li , Robin Clark , Yi-Jia Ren
China’s implemented two-child policy (TCP) was aimed at countering the economic challenges posed by an aging population. However, the impact of climate change on the goal of this policy remains uncertain. This study examines how climate change induced heat stress may impact the productivity of the working-age population, measured as total working hours as a result of the TCP. The TCP is projected to increase total working hours of China by 12%–19% under three scenarios compared to the previous one-child policy during 2071–2100. This increase is completely negated by a 19%–29% decrease in the total working hours induced by reduction in labor capacity from heat stress under climate warming. Specifically, compared to the one-child policy (OCP) in the 2071–2100, the total working hours shows the largest increase of 19% contributed by TCP but it can decrease by 9% if climate change is considered under the SSP370 scenario. Likewise, the TCP benefits can be totally offset by climate change which finally leads to 6% and 11% less than OCP under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Climate change’s adverse effects are particularly pronounced (30% or larger decrease in the total working hours under SSP370) in eastern and southern China, which has the most developed economy. Given China’s labor-intensive economic model, this study underscores the need for urgent mitigation strategies to safeguard the nation’s future economic well-being.
中国实施的二孩政策(TCP)旨在应对人口老龄化带来的经济挑战。然而,气候变化对这一政策目标的影响仍然不确定。本研究考察了气候变化引起的热应激如何影响工作年龄人口的生产力,以TCP的总工作时间来衡量。与之前的计划生育政策相比,在2071-2100年期间,TCP预计将在三种情况下使中国的总工作时间增加12%-19%。由于气候变暖造成的热应激导致劳动能力下降,总工作时间减少了19%-29%,这完全抵消了这一增长。具体而言,与2071-2100年的独生子女政策(OCP)相比,TCP对总工作时间的贡献最大,增加了19%,但如果在SSP370情景下考虑气候变化,总工作时间将减少9%。同样,在SSP126和SSP585情景下,TCP的收益可以被气候变化完全抵消,最终导致OCP分别减少6%和11%。在经济最发达的中国东部和南部地区,气候变化的不利影响尤为明显(SSP370下总工作时间减少30%或更多)。鉴于中国的劳动密集型经济模式,这项研究强调了采取紧急缓解战略以保障国家未来经济福祉的必要性。
{"title":"Climate change would largely offset labor capacity increment fueled by China’s two-child policy","authors":"Yun-Yun Ban ,&nbsp;Qiu-Hong Tang ,&nbsp;Xing-Cai Liu ,&nbsp;Xiao-Jie Li ,&nbsp;Robin Clark ,&nbsp;Yi-Jia Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China’s implemented two-child policy (TCP) was aimed at countering the economic challenges posed by an aging population. However, the impact of climate change on the goal of this policy remains uncertain. This study examines how climate change induced heat stress may impact the productivity of the working-age population, measured as total working hours as a result of the TCP. The TCP is projected to increase total working hours of China by 12%–19% under three scenarios compared to the previous one-child policy during 2071–2100. This increase is completely negated by a 19%–29% decrease in the total working hours induced by reduction in labor capacity from heat stress under climate warming. Specifically, compared to the one-child policy (OCP) in the 2071–2100, the total working hours shows the largest increase of 19% contributed by TCP but it can decrease by 9% if climate change is considered under the SSP370 scenario. Likewise, the TCP benefits can be totally offset by climate change which finally leads to 6% and 11% less than OCP under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Climate change’s adverse effects are particularly pronounced (30% or larger decrease in the total working hours under SSP370) in eastern and southern China, which has the most developed economy. Given China’s labor-intensive economic model, this study underscores the need for urgent mitigation strategies to safeguard the nation’s future economic well-being.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 606-612"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effects of human activities and low-frequency climate variability on East Asian temperature changes at century scale 人类活动和低频气候变率对世纪尺度东亚气温变化的影响
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.002
Chun-Hui Lu , Ying Sun
East Asia is one of the most densely populated regions in the world. Understanding the human causes of temperature changes, especially at the century scale, is important for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, the attribution study of extreme temperature remains inadequate because of limited observational data from early historical periods. Here, we utilise multiple observational data and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to investigate the influence of external forcing and low-frequency climate variability from sea surface temperature on the changes in daily maximum (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and their difference (diurnal temperature range, DTR) during the period of 1901–2020. We find that the warming trends in East Asia differ across seasons, with the warming magnitudes in spring and winter greater than those in the other two seasons. Detection and attribution based on an optimal fingerprinting method show that anthropogenic forcing mainly explains the observed changes in Tmax and Tmin during 1901–2020. Greenhouse gas forcing contributes approximately 1.1 °C (90% confidence intervals (CI): 0.78–1.3 °C) and 1.4 °C (90% CI: 1.19–1.58 °C) of annual Tmax and Tmin changes, while the anthropogenic aerosol forcing offsets 0.47 °C (90% CI: 0.15–0.92 °C) and 0.4 °C (90% CI: 0.07–0.77 °C) of the warming. For the DTR, the anthropogenic signal could not be detected due to the small signal-to-noise ratio. Meanwhile, the effects of the low-frequency climate variability coming from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are small and mainly attributed to the warming of the Atlantic Ocean induced by global change. This attribution information strengthens the scientific basis and helps decision-makers develop effective strategies and plans.
东亚是世界上人口最稠密的地区之一。了解人类造成温度变化的原因,特别是在世纪尺度上,对适应和减缓气候变化非常重要。然而,由于早期历史时期的观测资料有限,极端温度的归因研究仍然不足。本文利用耦合模式比对项目第6阶段的多期观测资料和模拟,研究了1901-2020年海面温度的外部强迫和低频气候变率对日最高(Tmax)、最低温度(Tmin)及其差(日温度差,DTR)变化的影响。东亚地区的增温趋势存在季节差异,春季和冬季的增温幅度大于其他两个季节。基于最优指纹法的检测和归因结果表明,1901-2020年,人为强迫主要解释了观测到的Tmax和Tmin变化。温室气体强迫对年Tmax和Tmin变化的贡献约为1.1°C(90%置信区间(CI): 0.78-1.3°C)和1.4°C(90%置信区间(CI): 1.19-1.58°C),而人为气溶胶强迫抵消了0.47°C(90%置信区间:0.15-0.92°C)和0.4°C(90%置信区间:0.07-0.77°C)的变暖。对于DTR,由于信噪比小,无法检测到人为信号。同时,来自大西洋多年代际涛动的低频气候变率的影响较小,主要归因于全球变化引起的大西洋变暖。这些归因信息加强了科学依据,有助于决策者制定有效的策略和计划。
{"title":"Effects of human activities and low-frequency climate variability on East Asian temperature changes at century scale","authors":"Chun-Hui Lu ,&nbsp;Ying Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>East Asia is one of the most densely populated regions in the world. Understanding the human causes of temperature changes, especially at the century scale, is important for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, the attribution study of extreme temperature remains inadequate because of limited observational data from early historical periods. Here, we utilise multiple observational data and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to investigate the influence of external forcing and low-frequency climate variability from sea surface temperature on the changes in daily maximum (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and their difference (diurnal temperature range, DTR) during the period of 1901–2020. We find that the warming trends in East Asia differ across seasons, with the warming magnitudes in spring and winter greater than those in the other two seasons. Detection and attribution based on an optimal fingerprinting method show that anthropogenic forcing mainly explains the observed changes in Tmax and Tmin during 1901–2020. Greenhouse gas forcing contributes approximately 1.1 °C (90% confidence intervals (CI): 0.78–1.3 °C) and 1.4 °C (90% CI: 1.19–1.58 °C) of annual Tmax and Tmin changes, while the anthropogenic aerosol forcing offsets 0.47 °C (90% CI: 0.15–0.92 °C) and 0.4 °C (90% CI: 0.07–0.77 °C) of the warming. For the DTR, the anthropogenic signal could not be detected due to the small signal-to-noise ratio. Meanwhile, the effects of the low-frequency climate variability coming from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are small and mainly attributed to the warming of the Atlantic Ocean induced by global change. This attribution information strengthens the scientific basis and helps decision-makers develop effective strategies and plans.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 576-590"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Radiative effects of black carbon in the Arctic due to recent extreme summer fires 由于最近的极端夏季火灾,黑碳在北极的辐射效应
IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.003
Xin-Tong Chen , Shi-Chang Kang , Dong-Hang Shao , Yu-Ling Hu , Jun-Hua Yang , Mian Xu
Black carbon (BC) affects the Arctic climate via aerosol‒radiation‒cloud interaction and snow/ice albedo feedback. Fires have become a substantial source of the Arctic BC in recent years, while the radiative effects of BC in the Arctic due to the recent extreme fires remain unclear. In this study, the atmospheric and snow radiative forcing of BC in the Arctic due to the extreme fires in summer 2019 were investigated based on numerical simulations, and the effects on meteorological variables and snow albedo were explored. Biomass burning BC in summer 2019 caused negative radiative forcing at the bottom of the atmosphere in Greenland and the central Arctic Ocean, and it caused positive radiative forcing in Europe, central Siberia, and northern Canada, with values that can reach −9 W/m2 and 18 W/m2, respectively. The radiative forcing was spatially heterogeneous, which was mainly induced by the dominant role of semi-direct and indirect radiative effects of BC related to cloud changes. The air temperature in the higher troposphere increased in the central Arctic Ocean and Greenland, and the near-surface air temperature increased in Europe, central Siberia, and northern Canada. The responses of wind field and relative humidity were mainly linked with the air temperature changes, and the cyclone activity anomaly can be observed in the central Arctic. Biomass burning BC caused positive snow radiative forcing in Greenland of 0.4–1.4 W/m2, and the maximum snow albedo reduction was about 0.005. Overall, this study highlights the importance of BC from fires on the Arctic climate.
黑碳(BC)通过气溶胶-辐射-云相互作用和冰雪反照率反馈影响北极气候。近年来,火灾已成为北极BC的重要来源,而由于最近的极端火灾,BC在北极的辐射影响尚不清楚。基于数值模拟研究了2019年夏季极端火灾对北极地区BC的大气和雪辐射强迫,并探讨了其对气象变量和积雪反照率的影响。2019年夏季生物质燃烧BC在格陵兰岛和北冰洋中部大气底部造成负辐射强迫,在欧洲、西伯利亚中部和加拿大北部造成正辐射强迫,其值分别可达- 9 W/m2和18 W/m2。辐射强迫具有空间异质性,主要由与云变化相关的BC的半直接和间接辐射效应主导。北冰洋中部和格陵兰岛对流层高层气温升高,欧洲、西伯利亚中部和加拿大北部近地面气温升高。风场和相对湿度的响应主要与气温变化有关,在北极中部可观测到气旋活动异常。生物质燃烧导致格陵兰岛积雪正辐射强迫为0.4 ~ 1.4 W/m2,最大积雪反照率降低约0.005。总的来说,这项研究强调了火灾对北极气候的重要性。
{"title":"Radiative effects of black carbon in the Arctic due to recent extreme summer fires","authors":"Xin-Tong Chen ,&nbsp;Shi-Chang Kang ,&nbsp;Dong-Hang Shao ,&nbsp;Yu-Ling Hu ,&nbsp;Jun-Hua Yang ,&nbsp;Mian Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Black carbon (BC) affects the Arctic climate via aerosol‒radiation‒cloud interaction and snow/ice albedo feedback. Fires have become a substantial source of the Arctic BC in recent years, while the radiative effects of BC in the Arctic due to the recent extreme fires remain unclear. In this study, the atmospheric and snow radiative forcing of BC in the Arctic due to the extreme fires in summer 2019 were investigated based on numerical simulations, and the effects on meteorological variables and snow albedo were explored. Biomass burning BC in summer 2019 caused negative radiative forcing at the bottom of the atmosphere in Greenland and the central Arctic Ocean, and it caused positive radiative forcing in Europe, central Siberia, and northern Canada, with values that can reach −9 W/m<sup>2</sup> and 18 W/m<sup>2</sup>, respectively. The radiative forcing was spatially heterogeneous, which was mainly induced by the dominant role of semi-direct and indirect radiative effects of BC related to cloud changes. The air temperature in the higher troposphere increased in the central Arctic Ocean and Greenland, and the near-surface air temperature increased in Europe, central Siberia, and northern Canada. The responses of wind field and relative humidity were mainly linked with the air temperature changes, and the cyclone activity anomaly can be observed in the central Arctic. Biomass burning BC caused positive snow radiative forcing in Greenland of 0.4–1.4 W/m<sup>2</sup>, and the maximum snow albedo reduction was about 0.005. Overall, this study highlights the importance of BC from fires on the Arctic climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48628,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Climate Change Research","volume":"16 3","pages":"Pages 460-472"},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144491774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Advances in Climate Change Research
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1