Advances in Climate Change Research最新文献_第7页

Weakening trends of glacier and snowmelt-induced floods in the Upper Yarkant River Basin, Karakoram during 1961–2022 1961-2022年喀喇昆仑地区上雅尔喀特河流域冰川融雪洪水减弱趋势

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.008

Ying Yi , Yu Zhu , Shi-Yin Liu , Muhammad Saifullah , Kun-Peng Wu , Qiao Liu , Jin-Yue Wei

Glacier and snowmelt-induced floods (GSFs) in glacierized regions are highly sensitive to climate change, yet their dynamics in areas such as the Upper Yarkant River Basin (UYRB) remain inadequately understood. Existing studies are constrained by data limitations and oversimplified modeling approaches, underscoring the need for a comprehensive analysis of the long-term changes in GSFs to improve flood risk management and water resource planning in the UYRB. This study investigated the characteristics, temporal changes, and climatic responses of GSFs based on a well-validated hydrological model. Results reveal that GSFs in the UYRB experienced a weakening trend from 1961 to 2022, as indicated by decreases in flood peak, duration, volume, and frequency. Although a portion of GSFs were primarily driven by snow runoff, the majority were mainly governed by glacier runoff. Among the examined climatic factors, temperature during the flood period was the key factor influencing GSF changes. Notably, despite the overall warming and wetting trend in the UYRB, temperatures during GSF events showed a decreasing trend, which suppressed glacier runoff and contributed to the weakening trends of GSFs. Spatial analysis identified the 4500–6000 m a.s.l. elevation zone as hydrologically critical, accounting for approximately 71% of the total runoff during the flood season. Under a 2 °C warming scenario, the intensity of GSFs is expected to increase across all return periods, with greater increases for longer return periods. A 10% increase in precipitation is projected to marginally enhance the intensity of GSFs with return periods of 20 years or less, while decreasing the intensity of extreme floods with 50- to 100-year return periods. Conversely, a 10% decrease in precipitation will reduce the intensity for all return periods. When the 2 °C warming scenario is combined with ±10% changes in precipitation, intensity of GSFs rises across all return periods, with more pronounced effects for longer return periods—especially under conditions of increased precipitation. These findings are pivotal in shaping effective strategies for flood adaptation and mitigation in alpine river basins.

冰川化地区的冰川和融雪引发的洪水对气候变化高度敏感，但其在上雅尔喀特河流域（UYRB）等地区的动态尚不充分了解。现有研究受到数据限制和过于简化的建模方法的制约，强调需要对gsf的长期变化进行全面分析，以改善UYRB的洪水风险管理和水资源规划。本研究基于一个经过验证的水文模型，研究了gsf的特征、时间变化和气候响应。结果表明：1961 ~ 2022年，新疆干旱区gsf呈减弱趋势，表现为洪峰减少、持续时间减少、体积减少、频次减少；虽然部分gsf主要受积雪径流驱动，但大部分gsf主要受冰川径流控制。在研究的气候因子中，汛期温度是影响GSF变化的关键因子。值得注意的是，尽管青藏高原整体呈现增湿趋势，但GSF事件期间气温呈现下降趋势，这抑制了冰川径流，导致GSF的减弱趋势。空间分析表明，海拔高度在4500-6000 m的区域是水文临界区，约占汛期总径流量的71%。在升温2°C的情景下，预计gsf的强度在所有回归期都将增加，且回归期越长，增加幅度越大。预计10%的降水增加将略微增强重现期为20年或更短的gsf的强度，而减少重现期为50- 100年的极端洪水的强度。相反，降水减少10%将使所有回归期的强度降低。当2°C变暖情景与降水±10%的变化相结合时，gsf的强度在所有回归期都有所上升，在较长的回归期影响更为明显，尤其是在降水增加的条件下。这些发现对于制定高寒河流流域洪水适应和缓解的有效策略至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Permafrost‒vegetation controls on water availability over the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau 青藏高原冻土-植被对水分有效性的控制

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.013

Fang Ji , Lin-Feng Fan , Shan-Shui Yuan , Xing-Xing Kuang , Liu-Jun Zhu , Jun-Liang Jin , Ying-Ying Yao , Jian-Yun Zhang , Chun-Miao Zheng

Permafrost degradation substantially affects water resources within the cryosphere. It is crucial to elucidate the dynamics of water availability influenced by both permafrost degradation and climate change to fully comprehend the water cycle in cold regions, such as the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau (QTP). While existing studies have established the hydrological consequences of permafrost degradation through altered soil hydraulics and water storage capacity, the complex interplay between thawing permafrost and vegetation dynamics—particularly their synergistic regulation of precipitation partitioning and runoff generation through root-zone water accessibility—are poorly understood, creating critical knowledge gaps in predicting long-term water availability trajectories. In this study, we explore the influence of permafrost-vegetation interactions on regional water availability on the QTP by integrating the effects of permafrost degradation on vegetation into the Budyko-Fu model. Our results reveal a consistent increase in surface runoff (R) of the permafrost regions from 1981 to 2100, predominantly driven by rising precipitation. However, shifts in vegetation patterns, prompted by permafrost degradation, significantly modify hydrological partitioning, leading to non-monotonic variations in the runoff to precipitation ratio (R/P). Notably, early-stage permafrost thaw enhances vegetation growth and evapotranspiration, which results in a decrease in R/P. Conversely, deeper permafrost thaw (e.g., beyond the root zone of vegetation) can lead to vegetation degradation, which subsequently reduces evapotranspiration and consequently increasing the R/P ratio. These findings underscore the pivotal role of vegetation in regulating the hydrological cycle and affecting water availability in permafrost-affected regions.

永久冻土退化严重影响冰冻圈内的水资源。阐明冻土带退化和气候变化共同影响下的水分有效性动态，对于全面认识青藏高原等寒区的水循环至关重要。虽然现有的研究已经通过改变土壤水力学和蓄水能力确定了永久冻土退化的水文后果，但对永久冻土融化与植被动态之间复杂的相互作用——特别是它们通过根区水可及性对降水分配和径流生成的协同调节——了解甚少，这在预测长期水可用性轨迹方面造成了关键的知识空白。在本研究中，我们通过将多年冻土退化对植被的影响纳入Budyko-Fu模型，探讨了多年冻土-植被相互作用对QTP区域水分有效性的影响。研究结果表明，1981年至2100年，冻土区地表径流(R)持续增加，主要受降水增加的驱动。然而，多年冻土退化导致的植被格局变化显著改变了水文分配，导致径流与降水比（R/P）的非单调变化。值得注意的是，冻土带早期解冻促进了植被生长和蒸散，导致R/P降低。相反，较深的永久冻土融化（例如，超出植被根区）可能导致植被退化，从而减少蒸散，从而增加R/P比。这些发现强调了植被在受冻土影响地区调节水文循环和影响水分供应方面的关键作用。

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引用次数: 0

Variations of soil thermal conductivity in the Three-River Source Region, Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau 青藏高原三江源区土壤热导率变化

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.011

Jia Liu , Dong-Liang Luo , Wen-Jie Lei , Fang-Fang Chen , Rui-Xia He , Cheng-Song Yang , Yan Lu , Shi-Zhen Li

The ongoing permafrost degradation in the Three-River Source Region (TRSR) poses serious threats to ecosystems, water resources, and infrastructure projects. As the China Water Tower and a vital barrier for the high-altitude ecological security of China, the TRSR is particularly vulnerable to such changes. The extent and severity of permafrost degradation are primarily governed by heat transfer dynamics, with soil thermal conductivity (STC) playing a crucial role in regulating thermal equilibrium. However, research on STC is hindered by insufficient in-situ measurements. To address this gap, we conducted in-situ measurements of STC at soil depths of 0–40 cm across 58 plots at 12 sites in the TRSR (244 records) during July and August 2023. The driving mechanisms influencing STC variations were further analyzed through laboratory experiments in September and October 2023. Spatially, STC increases from west to east and vertically with soil depth. Control experiments revealed that STC at negative temperatures is markedly higher than that at positive temperatures and increases with volumetric moisture content, particularly in inorganic soils, sand and loamy sand. This effect is more pronounced at subzero temperatures. Meanwhile, our results show that an artificial neural network model (R² = 0.78, p < 0.0001) incorporating ten measured soil physical parameters, outperforms traditional theoretical and empirical models in predicting STC. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of permafrost formation, evolution, and its responses to climate change in the TRSR.

三江源区多年冻土持续退化，对生态系统、水资源和基础设施建设构成严重威胁。作为中国水塔和中国高海拔生态安全的重要屏障，TRSR特别容易受到这种变化的影响。冻土退化的程度和严重程度主要受热传递动力学的影响，土壤导热系数在调节热平衡中起着至关重要的作用。然而，原位测量的不足阻碍了对STC的研究。为了解决这一空白，我们于2023年7月和8月在TRSR 12个站点（244条记录）的58个样地进行了0-40 cm土壤深度的STC原位测量。通过2023年9月和10月的室内实验，进一步分析了影响STC变化的驱动机制。从空间上看，STC随土层深度从西向东增加，纵向上随土层深度增加。对照试验结果表明，负温度条件下的STC显著高于正温度条件下的STC，且随着体积含水量的增加而增加，无机土、砂土和壤土中STC的增加最为明显。这种效应在零度以下的温度下更为明显。同时，我们的研究结果表明，人工神经网络模型(R2 = 0.78, p <；0.0001)，结合十个实测土壤物理参数，在预测STC方面优于传统的理论和经验模型。这些发现有助于更深入地了解TRSR中永久冻土的形成、演化及其对气候变化的响应。

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引用次数: 0

Effects of solar radiation modification on precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia: Insights from the GeoMIP G6 experiments 太阳辐射变化对东南亚极端降水的影响：来自GeoMIP G6试验的见解

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.009

Ze-Qian Feng , Mou Leong Tan , Liew Juneng , Mari R. Tye , Li-Li Xia , Fei Zhang

Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed to reduce global temperatures by reflecting more solar radiation into space, but its effects on precipitation extremes across Southeast Asia remain uncertain. This study evaluates the impacts of two SRM strategies on precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia, using the multi-model ensemble mean from five climate models in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6). Under a high-emission scenario (SSP585), two SRM approaches are tested: injecting sulfur dioxide (G6sulfur) into the stratosphere and reducing the solar constant (G6solar) to maintain radiative forcing at the level of a moderate-emission scenario (SSP245). Bilinear interpolation and linear scaling were used to downscale and bias-correct daily precipitation data before calculating precipitation extreme indices, respectively. The results show that G6sulfur causes more regional variation in annual total and mean wet day precipitation, the average daily precipitation on days with ≥1 mm rainfall, compared to G6solar. In areas like central Borneo, northern mainland Southeast Asia, and eastern Indonesia, the annual maximum 1-d precipitation per year is projected to increase by 30%–50% under SSP585 relative to the historical 1995–2014 baseline period but this rise could be reduced to around 20% by SSP245, G6sulfur, or G6solar. G6sulfur has less influence on continuous wet and dry spells than G6solar, yielding results closer to SSP585. Both SRM strategies lower the projected increase in heavy precipitation days, except in areas like East Coast Peninsular Malaysia, Nusantara Indonesia, and East Timor. In conclusion, SRM may effectively mitigate increases in extreme precipitation events in most of Southeast Asia, but G6solar provides a more consistent reduction, while G6sulfur shows more complex spatial responses.

太阳辐射调节（SRM）已被提议通过将更多的太阳辐射反射到太空来降低全球温度，但其对东南亚极端降水的影响仍不确定。本文利用地球工程模式比对项目第6阶段（GeoMIP6）中5个气候模式的多模式集合平均值，评估了两种SRM策略对东南亚极端降水的影响。在高排放情景（SSP585）下，测试了两种SRM方法：向平流层注入二氧化硫（g6硫）和降低太阳常数（G6solar），以将辐射强迫维持在中等排放情景（SSP245）的水平。在计算降水极端指数前，分别采用双线性插值和线性尺度变换对日降水数据进行降尺度和偏校正。结果表明：与g6太阳相比，g6硫对年总降水量、平均湿日降水量、≥1 mm日平均日降水量的区域差异更大；在婆罗洲中部、东南亚大陆北部和印度尼西亚东部等地区，与1995-2014年的历史基线期相比，在SSP585条件下，年最大1-d降水量预计将增加30%-50%，但在SSP245、g6硫或g6太阳能条件下，这一增幅可能会减少到20%左右。与G6solar相比，g6硫对连续干湿期的影响较小，其结果更接近SSP585。两种SRM策略都降低了预计的强降水日数增加，除了马来西亚东海岸半岛、印度尼西亚努沙tara和东帝汶等地区。综上所述，SRM可以有效缓解东南亚大部分地区极端降水事件的增加，但G6solar提供了更一致的减少，而g6硫则表现出更复杂的空间响应。

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引用次数: 0

Projection of sea ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago based on CMIP6 assessments 基于CMIP6评估的加拿大北极群岛海冰状况预估

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.008

Yu-Fei Liang , Yu Zhang , Hai-Long Guo , Chang-Sheng Chen , Wei-Zeng Shao , Yi Zhou , De-Shuai Wang

The Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) includes the critical region of the Northwest Passage (NWP) and is one of the areas with the most severe sea ice conditions in the Arctic. Currently, studies on sea ice projections focusing on the CAA are limited. Furthermore, the prediction results for the CAA from different models based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) exhibit uncertainty due to the inter-model spread. This study evaluated the projected data for sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT) within the CAA from 14 CMIP6 models for the period 2015–2022 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario based on the satellite and reanalysis data. Although most models can capture the major characteristics of spatiotemporal variations in SIC and SIT within the CAA, there are considerable numerical differences compared to observations and reanalysis. Additionally, there is a notable spread among 14 CMIP6 models. The assessment of SIC indicates that CESM2, GFDL-CM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and UKESM1-0-LL exhibit better performance, with a relatively low bias (less than 7%), a root mean square error (RMSE) below 22%, and a relatively high correlation coefficient (CC) exceeding 0.75. In the evaluation of SIT, the four best-performing models are GFDL-CM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, and MRI-ESM2-0. The multi-model ensemble of the best performance group (MMM_BPG) projects a declining trend in both sea ice area (SIA) and SIT for the CAA from 2025 to 2100, with respective trends of −0.21 × 10⁵ km² per decade and −0.06 m per decade under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and −0.56 × 10⁵ km² per decade and −0.11 m per decade under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Under both scenarios, the MMM_BPG predicts a more notable reduction of sea ice in the NWP compared to the multi-model ensemble of all 14 models. Navigable conditions for the northern and southern routes are defined by SIA and SIT respectively, with each route's SIA being less than 5% of its total area and the mean SIT being below 0.15 m. Based on the SIA threshold, under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, MMM_BPG projects that continuous annual navigability in the NWP, with at least three navigable months per year, will be achieved starting in 2060 and 2054, respectively. According to the SIT threshold, the MMM_BPG projects that it will reach continuous annual navigability with at least one navigable month per year under both scenarios, starting in 2038 and 2036, respectively. This study enhances the understanding of CMIP6 model performance in projecting sea ice within the CAA and provides insights into future sea ice conditions in the region.

加拿大北极群岛（CAA）包括西北航道（NWP）的关键区域，是北极海冰状况最严重的地区之一。目前，针对CAA的海冰预估研究有限。此外，基于耦合模式比对项目第6阶段（CMIP6）的不同模式对CAA的预测结果由于模式间的差异而存在不确定性。本研究基于卫星和再分析数据，评估了2015-2022年SSP2-4.5情景下14个CMIP6模式的CAA内海冰浓度（SIC）和厚度（SIT）预估数据。虽然大多数模式可以捕捉到中国大陆地区SIC和SIT时空变化的主要特征，但与观测和再分析相比，存在相当大的数值差异。此外，在14个CMIP6模型中存在显著的分布。SIC评估表明，CESM2、GFDL-CM4、IPSL-CM6A-LR和UKESM1-0-LL表现出较好的性能，偏差相对较低（小于7%），均方根误差（RMSE）小于22%，相关系数（CC）大于0.75。在SIT的评估中，表现最好的四种模型是GFDL-CM4、MPI-ESM1-2-HR、MPI-ESM1-2-LR和MRI-ESM2-0。最佳表现组（MMMBPG）的多模式集合预测了2025 - 2100年CAA海冰面积（SIA）和SIT的下降趋势，在SSP2-4.5情景下分别为- 0.21 × 105 km2 / 10年和- 0.06 m / 10年，在SSP5-8.5情景下分别为- 0.56 × 105 km2 / 10年和- 0.11 m / 10年。在这两种情况下，与所有14种模式的多模式集合相比，MMMBPG预测NWP的海冰减少更为显著。北航和南航的通航条件分别由SIA和SIT确定，每条航线的SIA小于其总面积的5%，平均SIT小于0.15 m。基于SIA阈值，在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下，MMMBPG项目将分别从2060年和2054年开始实现NWP的连续年通航，每年至少有三个通航月。根据SIT阈值，MMMBPG项目将在2038年和2036年分别从两种情况下分别达到每年至少一个通航月的连续年度通航。该研究增强了对CMIP6模式在预测CAA海冰方面的性能的理解，并为该地区未来的海冰状况提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Inconsistent response patterns of snow cover duration and snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau to global warming 青藏高原积雪持续时间和积雪深度对全球变暖的不一致响应模式

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.007

Ye Jiang , Tao Che , Li-Yun Dai

Snow cover possesses high albedo and thermal insulation properties, greatly influencing climate change and responding rapidly to climatic variation, particularly on the Tibetan Plateau. The region's combination of low latitude and intense solar radiation further amplifies the effects of climate change on snow cover. During the spring and summer seasons, changes to snow cover patterns driven by climate change initiate shifts in hydrological cycles, affecting freshwater availability and vegetation growth. However, previous studies investigating snow cover changes across the Tibetan Plateau have yielded inconsistent results due to the use of diverse datasets across varying periods. This study aims to analyze the response patterns of snow cover to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau by comparing trends in snow cover duration (SCD) and snow depth (SD) during spring and summer from 1990 to 2019. Based on the spatial distribution of changes in these two parameters, we categorized regions into four distinct types: areas where both snow cover duration and snow depth increase (SCD+SD+), areas where snow cover duration increase while snow depth decreases (SCD+SD−), areas where snow cover duration decrease while snow depth increases (SCD−SD+), and areas where both snow cover duration and snow depth decreases (SCD−SD−). Rising temperatures are driving a shift from snowfall to rainfall in lower-altitude regions, while high-altitude areas remain predominantly below freezing, limiting this conversion. By analyzing temperature and precipitation changes in the four areas, we observed that the response of snow cover duration to global warming is limited at altitudes above 4700 m during spring and summer, with an increases in spring snowfall dominating the overall rise of snow cover duration. In contrast, the declines in snow cover duration observed in lower-altitude areas are primarily attributed to warming effects, regardless of variations in snowfall. The snow depth variation is mainly influenced by winter snowfall trends during spring and summer. Furthermore, the negative trends (p < 0.05) in summer snowfall are mainly influenced by the increase (p < 0.05) summer temperatures. The study aids in understanding the complexity and inconsistencies of snow cover changes under the combined effects of climate change and altitudes.

积雪具有较高的反照率和保温性能，对气候变化的影响很大，对气候变化的响应也很快，特别是在青藏高原。该地区低纬度和强烈太阳辐射的结合进一步放大了气候变化对积雪的影响。在春季和夏季，气候变化驱动的积雪模式变化引发了水文循环的转变，影响了淡水供应和植被生长。然而，由于在不同时期使用了不同的数据集，以往调查青藏高原积雪变化的研究得出了不一致的结果。通过对比1990 - 2019年青藏高原春夏季积雪时长（SCD）和积雪深度（SD）变化趋势，分析青藏高原积雪对气候变化的响应模式。基于这两个参数变化的空间分布，我们将区域划分为积雪时长和雪深同时增加的区域（SCD+SD+）、积雪时长增加而雪深减少的区域（SCD+SD−）、积雪时长减少而雪深增加的区域（SCD−SD+）和积雪时长和雪深同时减少的区域（SCD−SD−）。气温上升正在推动低海拔地区从降雪到降雨的转变，而高海拔地区仍主要处于冰点以下，限制了这种转变。通过分析4个地区的气温和降水变化，我们发现春夏季海拔4700 m以上地区积雪时长对全球变暖的响应有限，春季降雪量的增加主导了积雪时长的整体上升。相比之下，在低海拔地区观测到的积雪持续时间的减少主要归因于变暖效应，而不考虑降雪的变化。春、夏季积雪深度变化主要受冬季降雪趋势的影响。此外，负趋势(p <；(p <；0.05)的夏季温度。该研究有助于理解气候变化和海拔高度共同作用下积雪变化的复杂性和不一致性。

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引用次数: 0

Declining autumn zero-curtain duration in the Headwater Area of the Yellow River (2011–2024) 黄河源区秋季零幕持续时间下降趋势（2011-2024年）

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.004

Dong-Liang Luo , Shi-Zhen Li , Yan-Lin Zhang , Hui-Jun Jin , Qing-Feng Wang , Fang-Fang Chen , Jia Liu , Chen-Yang Peng , Ya-Juan Zao

The zero-curtain period (ZCP), occuring during seasonal freeze‒thaw cycles, plays a crucial role in energy and water exchanges, biogeochemical and hydrological cycles, and ecosystem dynamics. However, its temporal variations and controlling factors remain poorly understood, particularly in high-altitude regions of the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau (QXP). This study investigates the ZCP within seasonal freeze‒thaw cycles in the central Headwater Area of the Yellow River (HAYR), using high-precision soil temperature observations from two seasonally frozen ground sites (TCM-2 and ZLH-WS) in 2011–2024. Results demonstrate that at TCM-2, the thawed duration generally decreases with depth, ranging from 163.2 d at 200 cm to 183.6 d at 20 cm, with no significant temporal trends. At ZLH-WS, the thawed duration was 13.2–33.8 d longer than that at TCM-2 but exhibits a distinct decreasing trend in 2016–2023. ZCP duration exhibits strong, albeit contrasting, correlations with soil water storage (SWS) at both sites, negative at TCM-2 (R = −0.86, p < 0.01) and positive at ZLH-WS (R = 0.83, p < 0.01). Notably, the highest recorded soil unfrozen water content in 2019 corresponded to an extended ZCP duration. ZCPs were observed during both thawing and freezing periods. The duration of the freezing period ZCP showed a marked temporal decline, particularly near the maximum frost penetration (MFP) depth and becoming more pronounced at greater depths. A substantial reduction in ZCP duration was detected in the middle and lower portions of the MFP at both sites, with decreasing rates of −1.86 d per year (p < 0.001) at TCM-2 and −2.7 d per year (p < 0.001) at ZLH-WS. These findings suggest that the shortening ZCP altered subsurface water phase dynamics, potentially leading to reduced water retention capacity within the shallow frozen ground profile. This highlights the significant implications of ongoing frozen ground degradation for subsurface hydrology in seasonally frozen ground.

零幕期（zero-curtain period， ZCP）发生在季节性冻融循环中，在能量和水分交换、生物地球化学和水文循环以及生态系统动力学中起着至关重要的作用。然而，其时间变化及其控制因素尚不清楚，特别是在青藏高原的高海拔地区。利用TCM-2和ZLH-WS两个季节冻土站点2011-2024年的高精度土壤温度观测资料，研究了黄河中源区季节性冻融循环中的ZCP。结果表明：在TCM-2，解冻时间随深度的增加而减小，从200 cm处的163.2 d减小到20 cm处的183.6 d，没有明显的时间变化趋势；ZLH-WS冻融时间比TCM-2冻融时间长13.2 ~ 33.8 d，但2016 ~ 2023年冻融时间呈明显减少趋势。在两个站点，ZCP持续时间与土壤储水量（SWS）表现出强烈的相关性，尽管存在差异，但在TCM-2站点呈负相关(R = - 0.86, p <；0.01)， ZLH-WS阳性(R = 0.83, p <；0.01)。值得注意的是，2019年记录的最高土壤未冻水含量与ZCP持续时间延长相对应。在解冻和冻结期间均观察到zcp。冻结期的持续时间ZCP呈现出明显的时间递减趋势，特别是在最大冻透深度附近，越深越明显。在两个地点的MFP中下部都检测到ZCP持续时间的大幅减少，每年减少- 1.86 d (p <；0.001)，每年- 2.7 d (p <；0.001)在ZLH-WS。这些发现表明，缩短的ZCP改变了地下水相动力学，可能导致浅层冻土剖面的保水能力降低。这突出了季节性冻土持续退化对地下水文的重要影响。

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引用次数: 0

Interplay between snow phenology and vegetation phenology in Alaska under climate change 气候变化下阿拉斯加积雪物候与植被物候的相互作用

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.001

Ya-Qiong Mu , Tao Che , Li-Yun Dai , Shi-Wei Liu , Gui-Gang Wang

Snow cover is one of the most important factors controlling Arctic ecosystems' microclimate and plant growth conditions in Arctic ecosystems. Climate change has impacted the timing and spatial variability of both snow cover, and worldwide vegetation phenology across the globe. However, the mechanisms by which snowpack factors regulate the onset of the growing season remain to be thoroughly investigated, particularly under varying climatic conditions and growth stages. In this study, we investigated the influence of snow characteristics on vegetation phenology across different growth stages. Specifically, we analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation and snow phenology in Alaska from 2001 to 2021, assessed the partial correlations between key phenological groups under controlled temperature and precipitation conditions, and quantified the contributions of climatic variables and snow cover to vegetation phenology across various growth-cycle phases. The results revealed that grassland and forest phenology responded strongly to variations in snowmelt timing (r > 0.5, p < 0.05). In contrast, although phenological responses in wetlands were also statistically significant (p < 0.05), the average correlation was weaker (mean r ≈ 0.45). Temperature was found to be the primary driver of vegetation phenology change during the peak growth periods, whereas snow temperature and depth were crucial drivers during the transitional growth phases. From 2001 to 2021, the changes in vegetation phenology in Alaska were more pronounced than those in snow dynamics. Notwithstanding the significant role of other co-varying drivers of vegetation-phenological shifts, the influence of snow phenology was crucial. This study elucidates the role of snowpack phenology in regulating vegetation dynamics under changing climatic conditions and growth cycles.

积雪是控制北极生态系统小气候和植物生长条件的重要因素之一。气候变化影响了全球积雪和植被物候的时空变化。然而，积雪因子调节生长季节开始的机制仍有待深入研究，特别是在不同的气候条件和生长阶段下。在本研究中，我们研究了不同生长阶段积雪特征对植被物候的影响。本文分析了2001 - 2021年阿拉斯加州植被和雪物候的时空动态，评估了在温度和降水控制条件下关键物候类群之间的部分相关性，并量化了不同生长周期阶段气候变量和积雪对植被物候的贡献。结果表明，草地和森林物候对融雪时间的变化响应强烈(r >；0.5, p <；0.05)。相比之下，尽管湿地的物候响应也具有统计学意义(p <；0.05)，平均相关性较弱（平均r≈0.45）。在生长高峰期，温度是植被物候变化的主要驱动因素，而在过渡生长阶段，积雪温度和积雪深度是植被物候变化的主要驱动因素。2001 - 2021年，阿拉斯加植被物候变化比积雪动态变化更为明显。尽管其他共变驱动因素在植被物候变化中发挥着重要作用，但雪物候的影响至关重要。本研究阐明了气候条件和生长周期变化下积雪物候对植被动态的调节作用。

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引用次数: 0

Quantification of selected SDGs in the context of China's climate mitigation pathway 中国气候减缓路径下选定可持续发展目标的量化

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.006

Chen-Min He , Ke-Jun Jiang , Yu-Jie Jiao , Pian-Pian Xiang , Xiang-Yang Xu , Wei-Yi Jiang

China has set targets for achieving peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality, supporting the global climate change mitigation targets. Meanwhile, after the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were established in 2015, China developed a national strategy for reaching them. This study aims to reveal the close relationship between energy transition, climate change mitigation and achieving SDGs. We presented the linkages between the climate change mitigation pathways and SDGs, by using the Integrated Energy and Environment Policy Assessment Model for China (IPAC). The energy transition pathways towards global net zero emissions and national carbon neutrality targets are presented as climate change mitigation pathways, with quantitative results of CO₂ emissions, energy mix and electricity demand. The pathway explores the quantitative analysis of the contributions of the climate mitigation and energy transition on achieving selected SDGs. The results show that the energy structure would change remarkably in the energy transition pathways under the climate targets, with 65% drop of fossil fuels in 2060 compared with 2020 level, and the rapid increase in renewable and nuclear powers. According to the results of the selected SDGs, under the mitigation pathway for China, it could also pave the way for sustainable development in not only energy supply side (growing of clean and low-carbon energies), but also energy demand side, including industry (optimizing material/resource utilization efficiency), building (improving proportion of population with clean energies and technologies), and transport sectors (increasing traffic turnover). Besides the global climate effects (SDG 13), local actions and measures aimed at meeting climate mitigation goals also generate domestic co-benefits, supporting progress toward SDG 3 about good health (air pollutants will drop 39%–62% cross different pollutants by 2030 compared from 2015 level), SDG 6 about clean water (water demand for some industries will drop fast due to the technologies replacement and update), SDG 7 about clean energy (proportion of population with primary reliance on clean will increase to 65.9% in 2030), SDG 8 about economic growth (materials consumption per GDP will drop 62% in 2030 from 2015 level), SDG 9 about industry (transport volumes will increase 52%–258% by 2030 compared to 2015 level), SDG 11 about sustainable cities, and SDG 12 about responsible production and consumption (recycled materials will increase about 15% in 2030 from 2015 level). The close connections between China's climate mitigation strategies and these SDGs highlight the importance of integrating policies and measures related to both climate goals and SDG targets. Such integration implicates the potential to enhance synergies and lower the overall cost of implementation.

中国制定了碳排放峰值和碳中和目标，支持全球减缓气候变化目标。与此同时，在2015年可持续发展目标（sdg）确立后，中国制定了实现这些目标的国家战略。本研究旨在揭示能源转型、减缓气候变化与实现可持续发展目标之间的密切关系。我们利用中国能源与环境综合政策评估模型（IPAC）展示了气候变化减缓路径与可持续发展目标之间的联系。实现全球净零排放和国家碳中和目标的能源转型途径作为气候变化缓解途径提出，并给出了二氧化碳排放、能源结构和电力需求的定量结果。该路径探讨了气候减缓和能源转型对实现选定可持续发展目标的贡献的定量分析。结果表明，在气候目标下，能源结构在能源转型路径上将发生显著变化，2060年化石燃料比2020年下降65%，可再生能源和核能快速增长。根据所选可持续发展目标的结果，在中国的减缓路径下，不仅可以在能源供给侧（增加清洁和低碳能源），还可以在能源需求侧(包括工业（优化材料/资源利用效率）、建筑（提高清洁能源和技术的人口比例）和交通运输部门（增加交通周转量）为可持续发展铺平道路。除了全球气候影响（可持续发展目标13），旨在实现气候减缓目标的地方行动和措施也产生了国内的协同效益，支持实现关于良好健康的可持续发展目标3（到2030年，不同污染物之间的空气污染物将比2015年下降39%-62%），关于清洁水的可持续发展目标6（由于技术的替换和更新，一些行业的用水需求将迅速下降）。可持续发展目标7关于清洁能源（2030年主要依赖清洁能源的人口比例将增加到65.9%），可持续发展目标8关于经济增长（2030年单位GDP的材料消费量将比2015年下降62%），可持续发展目标9关于工业（到2030年运输量将比2015年增加52%-258%），可持续发展目标11关于可持续城市，可持续发展目标12关于负责任的生产和消费（2030年再生材料将比2015年增加约15%）。中国的气候减缓战略与这些可持续发展目标之间的密切联系凸显了将与气候目标和可持续发展目标相关的政策和措施结合起来的重要性。这种整合意味着有可能加强协同作用并降低执行的总成本。

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引用次数: 0

Associations of compound hot extremes and heat waves with first-ever stroke morbidity in the context of climate change 在气候变化背景下，复合极端高温和热浪与首次卒中发病率的关联

IF 6.4 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Advances in Climate Change Research

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.012

Chen-Lu Yang , Ming-Wei Wang , Zhou-Peng Ren , Yi-Ke Li , Yong-Lin Hou , Cun-Rui Huang , Jun-Zhe Bao

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of abnormal weather, with current daytime and nighttime temperatures being higher than their historical counterparts. Previous studies have focused on exploring the health hazards of absolute heat (above the optimum temperature, often calculated on the basis of short periods of current data). However, the health hazards of climate change–induced relative heat (above the extremes of historical counterparts, often calculated on the basis of 30 years of temperature data or more) are unclear. Therefore, this study aims to explore the associations of different types (daytime only, nighttime only and combined daytime–nighttime) of heat and heat waves with stroke morbidity in consideration of human climate adaptation. The data of patients with stroke were obtained from Shenzhen, China, for the period of 2003–2018. Daytime and nighttime heat thresholds for specific calendar days in the study period were defined on the basis of hourly temperatures for long-term counterparts, which were the day and 7 d before and after each calendar day in the historical baseline (1973–2002). The associations of different types of heat and heat waves defined by bivariate heat thresholds with stroke morbidity were explored by using distributed lag nonlinear models. Relevant vulnerable populations and sensitive disease subtypes were identified through stratified analyses. Compound hot extremes and heat waves (combined daytime and nighttime heat and heat waves) were associated with stroke morbidity, with relative risks (RRs) of 1.279 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.078, 1.519) and 1.500 (95% CI: 1.142, 1.969), respectively, and attributable fractions (AFs) of 1.658% (95% CI: 0.548%, 2.594%) and 0.970% (95% CI: 0.362%, 1.432%), respectively. Associations between heat and heat waves during daytime only and nighttime only with stroke morbidity were statistically insignificant. Males, females and adults aged under and over 65 years were vulnerable to compound hot extremes and heat waves, and the differences between subgroups were statistically insignificant. Ischaemic stroke was the subtype sensitive to compound hot extremes and heat waves with RRs of 1.338 (95% CI: 1.101, 1.626) and 1.553 (95% CI: 1.138, 2.119), respectively, and AFs of 1.956% (95% CI: 0.709%, 2.982%) and 1.064% (95% CI: 0.363%, 1.578%), respectively, whereas haemorrhagic stroke had statistically insignificant associations. Compound hot extremes and heat waves may lead to an increased risk of stroke morbidity in the context of climate change. Governments should emphasise the forecasting and warning of compound hot weather with temperatures higher than the extremes of long-term historical counterparts to reduce associated disease burdens.

气候变化增加了异常天气的频率和强度，当前白天和夜间气温高于历史同期水平。以前的研究侧重于探索绝对高温（高于最佳温度，通常根据短期的当前数据计算）对健康的危害。然而，气候变化引起的相对高温（高于历史对应的极端温度，通常根据30年或更长时间的温度数据计算）对健康的危害尚不清楚。因此，本研究旨在从人类气候适应的角度，探讨不同类型（仅白天、仅夜间和昼夜结合）的高温和热浪与脑卒中发病的关系。脑卒中患者数据来自中国深圳，时间为2003-2018年。研究期间特定日历日的白天和夜间热阈值是根据长期对应的小时温度定义的，这些小时温度是历史基线（1973-2002）中每个日历日的前一天和之后的第7天。采用分布滞后非线性模型探讨了由二元热阈值定义的不同类型的热量和热浪与脑卒中发病率的关系。通过分层分析确定相关易感人群和敏感疾病亚型。复合极端高温和热浪（白天和夜间的高温和热浪）与卒中发病率相关，相对危险度（RRs）分别为1.279（95%可信区间（CI）： 1.078, 1.519）和1.500 (95% CI: 1.142, 1.969)，归因分数（AFs）分别为1.658% （95% CI: 0.548%, 2.594%）和0.970% （95% CI: 0.362%, 1.432%）。仅白天和仅夜间的高温和热浪与中风发病率之间的关联在统计学上不显著。男性、女性、65岁以下和65岁以上的成年人易受复合极端高温和热浪的影响，亚组之间的差异无统计学意义。缺血性脑卒中是对复合极端高温和热浪敏感的亚型，相对危险度分别为1.338 （95% CI: 1.101, 1.626）和1.553 (95% CI: 1.138, 2.119)， AFs分别为1.956% （95% CI: 0.709%, 2.982%）和1.064% (95% CI: 0.363%, 1.578%)，而出血性脑卒中的相关性在统计学上不显著。在气候变化的背景下，复合极端高温和热浪可能导致卒中发病风险增加。各国政府应强调对温度高于长期历史极端温度的复合炎热天气的预报和预警，以减少相关的疾病负担。

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引用次数: 0