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Predicting terrestrial heat flow in Egypt using random forest regression: a machine learning approach 利用随机森林回归预测埃及陆地热流:一种机器学习方法
IF 2.9 2区 地球科学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1186/s40517-025-00341-w
Ahmed Mohamed Bekhit, Mohamed Sobh, Mohamed Abdel Zaher, Tharwat Abdel Fattah, Ahmed I. Diab

This work aims to create a machine-learning model that can contribute to a comprehensive understanding of Egypt's terrestrial heat flow distribution. The model is based on the random forest regression method, with a sparsely distributed dataset of heat flow measurements. The model is trained using 16 geophysical and geological databases, which are well-known for their efficacy in geothermal evaluation. These databases provide a robust foundation for the model, ensuring its accuracy in predicting the terrestrial heat flow in Egypt. The results confirm that the Red Sea rift region exhibits the highest terrestrial heat flow values, ranging from 100 to 185 mW/m2. In contrast, the Mediterranean offshore zone shows values varying from 40 mW/m2 in the eastern sector to 110 mW/m2 in the west. The southern part of the Sinai Peninsula and the two Gulfs display heat flow values between 60 and 90 mW/m2, while northern Sinai has lower values between 40 and 50 mW/m2. The central region of the Eastern Desert presents heat flow values of 60 to 80 mW/m2, with northern and southern areas showing 50 mW/m2. The Nile Delta records a heat flow of 50 mW/m2, peaking at 60 mW/m2. The Western Desert reveals three distinct heat flow zones relevant to its geological structure: 60 mW/m2 in the unstable shelf to the north, 50 to 80 mW/m2 in the stable shelf at the center, and the Arabo-Nubian Massif in the south, which has the lowest terrestrial heat flow in Egypt, ranging from 30 to 60 mW/m2. This study's findings underscore Egypt's complex geothermal nature, highlighting significant and intriguing variations in terrestrial heat flow influenced by tectonic activity and geological structures. The Red Sea rift region is a hotspot for geothermal potential, which could be harnessed for sustainable energy production.

这项工作旨在创建一个机器学习模型,有助于全面了解埃及的地面热流分布。该模型基于随机森林回归方法,采用稀疏分布的热流测量数据集。该模型使用16个地球物理和地质数据库进行训练,这些数据库在地热评价中非常有效。这些数据库为该模型提供了坚实的基础,确保了其预测埃及大地热流的准确性。结果表明,红海裂谷区地表热流值最高,为100 ~ 185 mW/m2。相比之下,地中海近海区域的数值从东部的40兆瓦/平方米到西部的110兆瓦/平方米不等。西奈半岛南部和两个海湾的热流值在60 ~ 90 mW/m2之间,西奈半岛北部的热流值在40 ~ 50 mW/m2之间。东部沙漠中部地区热流值为60 ~ 80 mW/m2,北部和南部地区热流值为50 mW/m2。尼罗河三角洲记录的热流为50兆瓦/平方米,峰值为60兆瓦/平方米。西部沙漠显示出与其地质构造相关的三个不同的热流区:北部不稳定陆架为60 mW/m2,中部稳定陆架为50 - 80 mW/m2,南部的阿拉伯-努比亚地块是埃及陆地热流最低的地区,范围为30 - 60 mW/m2。这项研究的发现强调了埃及复杂的地热性质,突出了受构造活动和地质结构影响的大地热流的重大和有趣的变化。红海裂谷区是地热潜力的热点地区,可用于可持续能源生产。
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引用次数: 0
Analytically estimating the efficiency of high temperature aquifer thermal energy storage 分析估算高温含水层热能储存的效率
IF 2.9 2区 地球科学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1186/s40517-025-00343-8
David Geerts, Alexandros Daniilidis, Gert Jan Kramer, Martin Bloemendal, Wen Liu

High-Temperature Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (HT-ATES) can be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from heating. The thermal recovery efficiency is the main parameter indicating the performance of an HT-ATES system and it is influenced by multiple aquifer properties and storage characteristics. This study presents a method for estimating recovery efficiency through numerical modeling, data analysis, and curve fitting. This method shows the relation between the recovery efficiency and various storage conditions, such as aquifer properties and storage temperature. In addition, this research explores an analytical relationship between energetic efficiency and recovery efficiency and verifies that relationship with the generated data. The proposed method can be used for the purpose of initial screening to estimate the performance of an HT-ATES system and for efficiently using HT-ATES as a component in larger energy system models. This method uses the modified Rayleigh number in combination with aquifer thickness and injected volume and has a (R^2) of 85%. The analytical relation between energetic efficiency and recovery efficiency was shown to be accurate for all calculated energetic efficiency values above 60% and is less accurate with lower calculated energetic efficiency values.

高温含水层热能储存(HT-ATES)可用于减少加热产生的温室气体排放。热采效率是表征热采系统性能的主要参数,受多种含水层性质和储集特性的影响。本文提出了一种通过数值模拟、数据分析和曲线拟合来估算采收率的方法。该方法揭示了采收率与含水层性质、储存温度等不同储存条件之间的关系。此外,本研究还探索了能量效率与采收率之间的解析关系,并用生成的数据验证了这种关系。所提出的方法可用于初始筛选,以估计HT-ATES系统的性能,并有效地将HT-ATES作为更大的能源系统模型的组成部分。该方法结合含水层厚度和注入体积,采用修正的瑞利数,其(R^2)值为85%. The analytical relation between energetic efficiency and recovery efficiency was shown to be accurate for all calculated energetic efficiency values above 60% and is less accurate with lower calculated energetic efficiency values.
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引用次数: 0
Mechanism of heat transfer and accumulation in sedimentary basin geothermal anomaly belts: a case study of Bohai Bay Basin, China 沉积盆地地热异常带的热传递与成藏机制——以渤海湾盆地为例
IF 2.9 2区 地球科学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1186/s40517-025-00337-6
Xinwei Wang, Huiying Liu, Tinghao Wang, Nanan Gao, Zining Ma, Dan Li

The mechanism of heat transfer and accumulation in sedimentary basin geothermal anomaly belts is very complicated, resulting in a lack of in-depth understanding. The Bohai Bay Basin is the largest Mesozoic–Cenozoic rifted basin in China and taken as the research object in the present work, the relationship between geothermal anomaly characteristics and influencing factors, including the structural geometry of the bedrock bulge, the bedrock thermal conductivity, and the caprock thickness was quantitatively discussed. Based on a typical measured geothermal geologic profile in the central Bohai Bay Basin, the formation mechanism, controlling factors, and the guiding significance for geothermal resources exploration of geothermal anomaly belts were analyzed. The formation of a geothermal anomaly in the sedimentary basin was driven by the rapid transfer of uniform deep heat flow in bedrock with the high thermal conductivity and accumulation of that in caprock with the low thermal conductivity of shallow bedrock bulge belts. As a result, heat flow depletion in the deep bedrock and heat flow enrichment in the shallow caprock were formed, with the characteristics of a nearly symmetrical coupling variation pattern. The bedrock bulge amplitude and the bedrock thermal conductivity were the main factors controlling geothermal anomaly characteristics, and the sufficient caprock thickness was vital to the formation of the geothermal anomaly. Simulation results of theoretical models showed that the top surface temperature of bedrock geothermal reservoirs with a depth of 2 km can increase by up to 31.3 ℃, and positive anomaly amplitudes were up to 41.8%. Based on the difference of tectonic deformation patterns in the rifted basin and their determining role in a geothermal gradient of caprock, geothermal fields developing bedrock geothermal reservoirs in the Bohai Bay Basin were divided into seven types, including the high bulge type, the bulge type, the low bulge type, the sag type, the gentle slope type, the basin margin fault-uplift type, and the shallow burial type, with a decrease in turn of the caprock geothermal gradient from > 5.0 ℃/100 m to < 2.0 ℃/100 m. The high bulge-type and the bulge-type geothermal fields were favorable targets for the shallow-burial bedrock geothermal reservoir exploration. The low bulge-type and the sag-type geothermal fields were the main targets for exploring deep-burial bedrock geothermal reservoirs with high temperatures above 150℃.

沉积盆地地热异常带的热传递与成藏机制十分复杂,目前对其缺乏深入的认识。渤海湾盆地是中国最大的中新生代断陷盆地,本文以渤海湾盆地为研究对象,定量讨论了地热异常特征与基岩凸起构造几何形状、基岩导热系数、盖层厚度等影响因素之间的关系。根据渤海湾盆地中部典型地热地质实测剖面,分析了地热异常带的形成机理、控制因素及对地热资源勘探的指导意义。沉积盆地地热异常的形成是由高导热基岩内均匀深部热流的快速传递和浅层基岩隆起带低导热基岩内均匀深部热流在盖层内的聚集驱动的。形成了深层基岩热流枯竭和浅层盖层热流富集的特征,并具有近对称耦合变化规律。基岩隆起幅度和基岩热导率是控制地热异常特征的主要因素,而足够的盖层厚度对地热异常的形成至关重要。理论模型模拟结果表明,深度为2 km的基岩地热储层顶面温度最高可升高31.3℃,正异常幅度高达41.8%。根据断陷盆地构造变形模式的差异性及其对盖层地热梯度的决定作用,将渤海湾盆地发育基岩地热储层的地热田划分为高凸起型、凸起型、低凸起型、凹陷型、缓坡型、盆地边缘断隆型和浅埋藏型7种类型。盖层地温梯度由5.0℃/ 100m依次减小至2.0℃/ 100m。高凸起型和凸起型地热田是浅埋基岩地热储层勘探的有利对象。低凸起型和凹陷型地热田是150℃以上高温深埋基岩地热储层的主要勘探对象。
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引用次数: 0
Viscosity of pure and mixed aqueous NaCl and CaCl2 solutions at 293 K to 353 K and 0.1 MPa: a simple empirical correlation parameterised with original analytical data 纯和混合NaCl和CaCl2水溶液在293 K至353 K和0.1 MPa下的粘度:用原始分析数据参数化的简单经验相关性
IF 2.9 2区 地球科学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1186/s40517-025-00339-4
Ulrike Hoffert, Guido Blöcher, Stefan Kranz, Harald Milsch, Ingo Sass

This paper reports more than 500 newly measured values of the dynamic viscosity of pure and mixed sodium chloride (NaCl) and calcium chloride (CaCl2) aqueous solutions of which about half are unique. The data were acquired with a commercial rolling ball viscometer at ambient pressure, temperatures between 293 and 353 K, concentrations up to 6.0 mol/kg (NaCl) and 5.3 mol/kg (CaCl2) as well as five different mixing ratios for the ternary system. Compared to existing values found in the literature, the present data match within mostly 5% uncertainty. Potential sources of errors are thoroughly discussed. An empirical correlation was derived from the measured data, accurately reproducing the measured data with good precision. This permits the functional dependence of dynamic viscosity on concentration and temperature of pure and mixed NaCl and CaCl2 solutions to be easily and reliably implemented in coupled thermal–hydraulic–mechanical–chemical (THMC) numerical models aiming to predict the evolution of geothermal reservoir dynamics. Moreover, numerical sensitivity analyses were conducted exemplarily for one deep geothermal (DG) as well as one aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) system to constrain the effect of viscosity variations and/or uncertainty on the prediction of key reservoir and operational parameters. It is demonstrated that viscosity variations systematically affect the productivity and injectivity indices (both systems) and the required pumping power (ATES), though no effect was observed for the timing of thermal breakthrough (DG) and the temperature evolution at the warm well (ATES). Not least, the stated precision of the analytical data obtained in this study proves well sufficient for the quality of numerical reservoir simulations aiming at predictions in a geothermal context.

本文报道了500多个新测量的纯氯化钠(NaCl)和混合氯化钙(CaCl2)水溶液的动态粘度值,其中约一半是唯一的。在常温下,温度在293 ~ 353 K之间,浓度为6.0 mol/kg (NaCl)和5.3 mol/kg (CaCl2),以及五种不同的三元体系混合比例下,使用商用滚球粘度计获得数据。与文献中发现的现有值相比,目前的数据在5%的不确定性范围内匹配。对潜在的误差来源进行了深入的讨论。由实测数据推导出经验相关性,以较好的精度准确再现实测数据。这使得动态粘度对纯和混合NaCl和CaCl2溶液的浓度和温度的函数依赖性可以在旨在预测地热储层动力学演化的热-水力-机械-化学(THMC)耦合数值模型中轻松可靠地实现。此外,还对一个深层地热(DG)和一个含水层储热(ATES)系统进行了数值敏感性分析,以约束粘度变化和不确定性对关键储层和操作参数预测的影响。结果表明,粘度变化会系统性地影响产能和注入指数(两个体系)以及所需的泵送功率(ATES),但对热突破时间(DG)和暖井温度演变(ATES)没有影响。尤其重要的是,本研究中获得的分析数据的所述精度足以证明地热背景下旨在预测的数值油藏模拟的质量。
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引用次数: 0
Thermal model of the Pantelleria Island (Sicily Channel, Southern Italy): new insights for promoting the sustainable exploitation of geothermal resources on the island Pantelleria岛(西西里海峡,意大利南部)的热模型:促进岛上地热资源可持续开发的新见解
IF 2.9 2区 地球科学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1186/s40517-025-00340-x
Marisa Giuffrida, Giovanni Floridia, Mauro Cacace, Marco Viccaro

A three-dimensional hydraulic-thermal model has been developed for the island of Pantelleria in order to investigate the driving heat transfer mechanisms and the role of rocks and fluids thermal and hydraulic properties in controlling the temperature distribution. The model simulates transient conditions accounting for changes with time of the background steady-state thermal field over a period of 50,000 years, which coincides with a period of major morphological/structural stability on the island. The comparison between observed and computed temperatures was used to validate the model. Model outcomes confirm temperature up to 490 °C at 2 km depth in the central part of the Cinque Denti caldera. The proposed thermal modeling agrees with the trend of the thermal anomaly on the island, clearly evidencing how the center of the thermal anomaly is located within the young caldera, while the north-eastern part of the island is characterized by much lower temperatures than its central-southern part. It is shown that a coupled thermal–hydraulic 3D model can provide a clear perspective on surface and subsurface conditions that drive heat transfer, thus helping to understand the characteristics of geothermal systems in the area.

为了研究Pantelleria岛的驱动传热机制以及岩石和流体的热工性质对温度分布的控制作用,建立了一个三维水热模型。该模型模拟了5万年背景稳态热场随时间变化的瞬态条件,这与该岛主要形态/结构稳定的时期相吻合。用实测温度和计算温度的对比来验证模型的正确性。模型结果证实,在Cinque Denti火山口中部2公里深处的温度高达490°C。所提出的热模拟与岛上热异常的趋势一致,清楚地证明了热异常的中心位于年轻的破火山口内,而该岛东北部的温度远低于其中南部。研究结果表明,热-液耦合三维模型可以清晰地反映地表和地下驱动传热的条件,从而有助于了解该地区地热系统的特征。
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引用次数: 0
Thermoeconomic analysis of a geothermal power plant by comparison of different exergetic methods 通过对不同火用方式的比较,对某地热发电厂进行热经济分析
IF 2.9 2区 地球科学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-03-23 DOI: 10.1186/s40517-025-00335-8
Zekeriya Özcan, Özgür Ekici

Exergoeconomics is a vital complementation of thermodynamic performance analysis. In this study, a comprehensive exergoeconomic analysis of a binary geothermal power plant in southwestern Anatolia is conducted to determine improvement potentials in the plant configuration. By utilization of cost allocation rules of three different exergoeconomic methods (Moran, Specific Exergy Costing (SPECO), Exergy Cost Theory) plant is analyzed in terms of exergetic costs and possible optimization areas. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) estimated by 3 different methods vary within a 3.6% range, between 7.81 c$/kWh and 8.1 c$/kWh. It has also been determined that 51.5% of LCOE is constituted by waste/residual costs. Components especially including a thermal phase change or energy conversion, whose exergoeconomic factors below 0.5 warrant investment and optimization for performance improvement despite their higher individual exergetic efficiencies reported in previous studies. This phenomenon highlights the importance of considering exergetic efficiency and exergoeconomic factors together as plant design parameters. By using advanced materials or by optimizing the temperature gradient between the geothermal brine and the working fluid, heat transfer efficiency can be enhanced in heat exchanger devices. Turbines generally have mechanical losses which can be enhanced by optimizing blade design, reducing friction, and enhancing the thermodynamic cycle (i.e., use re-heat stages or improve steam conditions).

燃烧经济学是热力学性能分析的重要补充。在这项研究中,对安纳托利亚西南部的一个二元地热发电厂进行了全面的努力经济分析,以确定电厂配置的改进潜力。运用三种不同的火用经济方法(Moran法、SPECO法、火用成本理论)对电厂的火用成本和可能的优化区域进行了分析。三种不同方法估算的平准化电力成本(LCOE)在3.6%的范围内变化,在7.81 c$/kWh和8.1 c$/kWh之间。还确定了51.5%的成本成本是由废物/剩余成本构成的。特别是包括热相变或能量转换的组件,其消耗经济因子低于0.5,尽管在以前的研究中报告了更高的单个消耗效率,但仍需要投资和优化以提高性能。这一现象突出了将燃烧效率和燃烧经济性因素作为电厂设计参数一并考虑的重要性。通过采用先进材料或优化地热卤水与工质之间的温度梯度,可以提高换热器装置的换热效率。涡轮机通常有机械损失,可以通过优化叶片设计、减少摩擦和增强热力学循环(即使用再热级或改善蒸汽条件)来增强机械损失。
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引用次数: 0
Numerical investigations on the performance analysis of multiple fracturing horizontal wells in enhanced geothermal system 增强型地热系统多压裂水平井性能分析数值研究
IF 2.9 2区 地球科学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1186/s40517-025-00338-5
Hongwei Wang, Yongbo Tie, Hejuan Liu, Linyou Zhang, Haidong Wu, Xiaohui Xiong, Xianpeng Jin, Donglin Liu, Dan Wang, Dongfang Chen, Lisha Hu

The development of geothermal energy through enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) often encounters challenges such as fluid short-circuiting, water loss, and insufficient connectivity. This study presents a time-dependent seepage and heat exchange model for the formation–wellbore–fluid system during the heat extraction process. Taking the Fenton Hill HDR project as a case study, this paper investigates the influence of formation characteristics, wellbore design, and injected fluid properties on heat transfer efficiency. Furthermore, a multi-well EGS utilizing multiple fracturing horizontal wells (MFHW) is proposed, and its production temperature is compared with two types of double-well EGS. The findings reveal that within the horizontal segment of the double-well EGS, an optimal output of 3.4 MW can be achieved at an injection rate of 30 kg/s. Additionally, the extraction temperature shows a positive correlation with factors such as heat production and electrical power generation. In the MFHW project, optimizing heat production potential can be accomplished by increasing the number of perforation fractures, enhancing artificial fracture spacing, improving the perforation angle, extending the horizontal segment, reducing well diameter, and employing a longer vertical heat insulation pipe with lower thermal conductivity. Finally, a comparative analysis of various development models indicates that two-injection-one-production multi-well EGS model exhibits superior performance, with its heat production being twice as efficient as that of one-injection-one-production double-well EGS model.

通过增强型地热系统(EGS)开发地热能经常遇到流体短路、失水和连通性不足等挑战。本文建立了采热过程中地层-井筒-流体系统随时间变化的渗流和热交换模型。以Fenton Hill HDR项目为例,研究了地层特征、井筒设计、注入流体性质对换热效率的影响。在此基础上,提出了一种利用多级压裂水平井(MFHW)的多井EGS,并与两种双井EGS的生产温度进行了比较。研究结果表明,在双井EGS的水平段内,当注入速度为30 kg/s时,可实现3.4 MW的最佳输出。提取温度与产热、发电量等因素呈正相关。在MFHW项目中,可以通过增加射孔裂缝数量、增加人工裂缝间距、提高射孔角度、延长水平段、减小井径、采用更长的垂向保温管、降低导热系数来优化产热潜力。最后,通过对不同开发模式的对比分析,表明两注一采多井EGS模式具有较好的开发性能,其采热效率是一注一采双井EGS模式的2倍。
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引用次数: 0
Pressure propagation during hydraulic stimulation: case study of the 2000 stimulation at Soultz-sous-Forêts 水力增产过程中的压力传播:以Soultz-sous-Forêts 2000次增产为例
IF 2.9 2区 地球科学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-02-19 DOI: 10.1186/s40517-025-00333-w
Dariush Javani, Jean Schmittbuhl, François Cornet

Hydraulic stimulation of pre-existing fractures and faults plays a significant role in improving hydraulic conductivity of the fracture network around injection and production wells in deep geothermal reservoirs. In present work, a three-dimensional distinct element method (3DEC, Itasca) is used to simulate the year 2000 hydraulic stimulation of GPK2 well of Soultz-sous-Forêts geothermal reservoir, where several major hydraulic stimulations have been performed and are well documented. The field scale numerical model of the reservoir (about 6000 × 4500 × 4500 m3) includes an explicit description of the main fault (FZ4770), was developed to constrain the large-scale hydromechanical properties of the fault, in particular, its behavior in terms of non-linear elastic response related to fault aperture changes. The first phase of the stimulation is modelled as a constant flow rate of 30 ls−1 of water injection into the center of a deformable fault at the depth of approximately 4.7 km. We observed that the fluid pressure front migration from the injection point along the fracture follows, under the in-situ stress condition and the moderate injection pressure, a pseudo-diffusion behavior as power-law function of time with a 0.5 exponent (√t) when the injection flow rate is constant. It is demonstrated that the dynamic evolution of aperture opening due to fluid injection into the fracture is responsible for the pressure propagation behavior, owing to a hydraulic aperture change rather than a fluid pressure diffusion process. This numerically observed propagation process is compatible with a high fault effective diffusivity of 13 m2/s as that observed in the field. In case of a linear increase of the injection flow rate, the pseudo-diffusion process disappears leading to a time dependent power-law migration of the pressure front with exponent of 0.75. The pressure propagation is shown to be strongly influenced by the injection scheme.

对深部地热储层已有裂缝和断层进行水力改造,对提高注采井周围裂缝网络的导流能力具有重要作用。本文采用三维离散元法(3DEC, Itasca)对Soultz-sous-Forêts地热储层GPK2井2000年的水力增产进行了模拟,该井已经进行了几次主要的水力增产,并有很好的记录。该油藏的现场尺度数值模型(约6000 × 4500 × 4500 m3)包含了对主断层(FZ4770)的明确描述,旨在约束断层的大尺度流体力学特性,特别是与断层孔径变化相关的非线性弹性响应行为。第一阶段的模拟是,在深度约4.7 km的可变形断层中心注入30 l−1的恒定流量。研究发现,在地应力条件下,注入压力适中,注入流量一定时,注入点的流体压力前缘沿裂缝方向的运移遵循时间幂律函数的伪扩散行为,且呈0.5次幂(√t)。结果表明,裂缝内注入流体导致的裂缝开度的动态演化是裂缝内压力传播的主要原因,这是由于水力孔径的变化而非流体压力扩散过程。数值观测到的传播过程与现场观测到的13 m2/s的高断层有效扩散率相一致。当注入流量线性增加时,伪扩散过程消失,导致压力锋呈指数为0.75的随时间幂律偏移。压力的传播受注入方式的强烈影响。
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引用次数: 0
Controlling injection conditions of a deep coaxial closed well heat exchanger to meet irregular heat demands: a field case study in Belgium (Mol) 控制深同轴闭井换热器的注入条件以满足不规则热需求——以比利时为例(Mol)
IF 2.9 2区 地球科学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-01-30 DOI: 10.1186/s40517-025-00331-y
Vlasios Leontidis, Edgar Hernandez, Justin Pogacnik, Magnus Wangen, Virginie Harcouët-Menou

Deep geothermal closed-loops have recently gained attention because of their advantages over classical geothermal applications (e.g., less dependence on the geology, no risk of induced seismicity) and technological advantages (e.g., in the drilling process, use of alternative to water fluids). This paper deals with the repurposing of an existing well in Mol, Belgium, by numerically evaluating the closed-loop concept. Two numerical tools are used to predict the evolution of the temperature and the produced energy over a period of 20 years considering the vertical coaxial well and the complete geological morphology. Full-scale simulations are initially carried out to estimate the maximum capacity of the well and to highlight the need to control the output of the well by adjusting the inlet conditions. Simulations are then performed either to deliver a constant power or to cover irregular thermal energy demands of two buildings by applying in both cases three process control operations. Through controlling the inlet temperature, the injected flow rate or successively both, the production of excess energy, resulting from the overdesign of the existing wellbore for the specific application, is limited. The simulations showed that continuous adjustments to the injection temperature and/or flow rate are needed to restrict the rapid drop in outlet temperature and consequent thermal depletion of the rocks, caused by the highly transient nature of the diffusive heat transfer from the rocks to the wellbore, as well as to supply a specific heat demand, constant or irregular, over the long term. In fact, the combination of both controls could be the ideal strategy for supplying the demand at the highest COP.

深层地热闭环由于其优于传统地热应用(例如,对地质的依赖性较小,没有诱发地震活动的风险)和技术优势(例如,在钻井过程中,使用替代水的流体),最近引起了人们的关注。本文通过对闭环概念的数值评估,对比利时Mol的一口井进行了改造。利用两种数值计算工具,结合垂直同轴线井和完整的地质形态,预测了该区20年的温度和产能变化。首先进行全尺寸模拟,以估计井的最大产能,并强调通过调整进口条件来控制井的产量的必要性。然后进行模拟,通过在两种情况下应用三个过程控制操作来提供恒定的功率或覆盖两个建筑物的不规则热能需求。通过控制入口温度、注入流量或先后控制两者,可以限制因特定应用而过度设计现有井筒而产生的多余能量。模拟结果表明,需要不断调整注入温度和/或流量,以限制出口温度的快速下降和由此引起的岩石热损耗,这是由岩石向井筒的扩散传热的高度瞬态性质造成的,并且需要在长期内提供特定的热量需求,无论是恒定的还是不规则的。事实上,两种控制措施的结合可能是满足最高COP需求的理想策略。
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引用次数: 0
A probabilistic model-based approach to assess and minimize scaling in geothermal plants 一种基于概率模型的方法来评估和最小化地热发电厂的结垢
IF 2.9 2区 地球科学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1186/s40517-025-00336-7
Pejman Shoeibi Omrani, Jonah Poort, Eduardo G. D. Barros, Hidde de Zwart, Cintia Gonçalves Machado, Laura Wasch, Aris Twerda, Huub H. M. Rijnaarts, Shahab Shariat Torbaghan

Geothermal installations often face operational challenges related to scaling which can lead to loss in production, downtime, and an increase in operational costs. To accurately assess and minimize the risks associated with scaling, it is crucial to understand the interplay between geothermal brine composition, operating conditions, and pipe materials. The accuracy of scaling predictive models can be impacted by uncertainties in the brine composition, stemming from sub-optimal sampling of geothermal fluid, inhibitor addition, or measurement imprecision. These uncertainties can be further increased for fluid at extreme conditions especially high salinity and temperature. This paper describes a comprehensive method to determine operational control strategies to minimize the scaling considering brine composition uncertainties. The proposed modelling framework to demonstrate the optimization under uncertainty workflow consists of a multiphase flow solver coupled with a geochemistry model and an uncertainty quantification workflow to locally estimate the probability of precipitation potential, including its impact on the hydraulic efficiency of the geothermal plant by increasing the roughness and/or decreasing the diameter of the casings and pipelines. For plant operation optimization, a robust control problem is formulated with scenarios which are generated based on uncertainties in brine composition using an exhaustive search method. The modelling and optimization workflow was demonstrated in a geothermal case study dealing with barite and celestite scaling in a heat exchanger. The results showed the additional insights in the potential impact of brine composition uncertainties (aleatoric uncertainties) in scaling potential and precipitation location. Comparing the outcome of optimization problem for the deterministic and fluid composition uncertainties, a change of up to 2.5% in the temperature control settings was observed to achieve the optimal coefficient of performance.

地热设施通常面临着与规模相关的运营挑战,这可能导致生产损失、停机时间和运营成本的增加。为了准确评估和降低结垢风险,了解地热盐水成分、操作条件和管道材料之间的相互作用至关重要。由于地热流体取样不理想、抑制剂添加或测量不精确,盐水成分的不确定性会影响标度预测模型的准确性。对于极端条件下的流体,特别是高盐度和高温度的流体,这些不确定性可能会进一步增加。本文描述了一种综合的方法来确定操作控制策略,以最大限度地减少卤水成分的不确定性。为了演示不确定工作流下的优化,所提出的建模框架包括一个多相流求解器和一个地球化学模型,以及一个不确定性量化工作流,用于局部估计降水潜力的概率,包括其通过增加粗糙度和/或减小套管和管道直径对地热发电厂水力效率的影响。针对电厂运行优化问题,采用穷举搜索方法,建立了基于卤水成分不确定性的鲁棒控制问题。在换热器中重晶石和天青石结垢的地热案例研究中,演示了建模和优化工作流程。结果显示了盐水组成不确定性(任意不确定性)对结垢势和沉淀位置的潜在影响的额外见解。将确定性和流体成分不确定性优化问题的结果进行比较,可以观察到温度控制设置的变化高达2.5%,以达到最佳性能系数。
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Geothermal Energy
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