Gloria Alarcón García, José Daniel Buendía Azorín, M. Vega
Este trabajo analiza el rechazo al fraude fiscal en Espana antes y despues de la Gran Depresion y estudia el papel de factores internos o individuales y contextuales, sociales o institucionales. Los resultados del modelo logit utilizado reflejan que el rechazo al fraude fiscal depende positivamente de variables indi¬viduales como la edad y la educacion y contextuales como el gasto publico y el resultado electoral del partido gobernante. Por el contrario, altos niveles de desempleo y recaudacion fiscal, elevado peso del sector de la construccion y mayor desigualdad influyen negativamente en la moral fiscal. La principal diferencia entre 2007 y 2013 es la magnitud de la influencia de estas variables
{"title":"El rechazo al fraude fiscal en España: Antes y después de la Gran crisis","authors":"Gloria Alarcón García, José Daniel Buendía Azorín, M. Vega","doi":"10.7866/hpe-rpe.16.3.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7866/hpe-rpe.16.3.2","url":null,"abstract":"Este trabajo analiza el rechazo al fraude fiscal en Espana antes y despues de la Gran Depresion y estudia el papel de factores internos o individuales y contextuales, sociales o institucionales. Los resultados del modelo logit utilizado reflejan que el rechazo al fraude fiscal depende positivamente de variables indi¬viduales como la edad y la educacion y contextuales como el gasto publico y el resultado electoral del partido gobernante. Por el contrario, altos niveles de desempleo y recaudacion fiscal, elevado peso del sector de la construccion y mayor desigualdad influyen negativamente en la moral fiscal. La principal diferencia entre 2007 y 2013 es la magnitud de la influencia de estas variables","PeriodicalId":48669,"journal":{"name":"Hacienda Publica Espanola-Review of Public Economics","volume":"218 1","pages":"33-56"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71306550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the dynamic performance of air pollution in Spain from 1960 to 2010. First, we evaluate the relationship between economic growth and pollution through the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Second, we test the hypothesis of regional convergence in air pollution intensity from 1995 to 2010, in order to analyse whether regional taxes intended to abate emissions have been effective. For the first issue, our results show that a quadratic relationship is satisfied, but an out-of-sample turning point is generated. For the second, regional convergence is rejected, although those regions which haveimplemented a pollution tax seem to perform differently.
{"title":"Air Emissions Performance: A Dynamic Analysis for Spain","authors":"J. A. R. Aso, Jaime Vallés Giménez","doi":"10.7866/hpe-rpe.16.3.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7866/hpe-rpe.16.3.3","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the dynamic performance of air pollution in Spain from 1960 to 2010. First, we evaluate the relationship between economic growth and pollution through the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Second, we test the hypothesis of regional convergence in air pollution intensity from 1995 to 2010, in order to analyse whether regional taxes intended to abate emissions have been effective. For the first issue, our results show that a quadratic relationship is satisfied, but an out-of-sample turning point is generated. For the second, regional convergence is rejected, although those regions which haveimplemented a pollution tax seem to perform differently.","PeriodicalId":48669,"journal":{"name":"Hacienda Publica Espanola-Review of Public Economics","volume":"218 1","pages":"57-78"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71306571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Martín Ardanaz, Ana Corbacho, Alberto R. Gonzales, Nuria Tolsa
In recent years, an increasing number of countries have began anchoring their fiscal policy frameworks in terms of rules that target the cyclically adjusted or structural (as opposed to actual) balance in an effort to overcome problems of procyclicality and fiscal volatility. The logic for doing so is in principle compelling: rule-based fiscal policies allow automatic stabilizers to work freely during the cycle and help accumulate fiscal surpluses in good times. However, the estimation of structural balances is subject to a number of methodological challenges, including the degree of estimation uncertainty. This paper presents a range of estimates of the structural budget balance and uses them to analyze the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in Latin America and the Caribbean. Based on an original dataset comprising detailed fiscal information from 20 countries across the region between 1990 and 2014, the paper finds that the range of estimates can be large for some countries, especially those that derive substantial fiscal revenue from commodity-related activities. In addition, the evidence shows that on average, the region has followed a procyclical policy pattern: a 1 percent increase in the output gap is associated with up to a 0.55 percentage point deterioration in the structural primary balance. This pattern hides substantial regional heterogeneity: procyclicality is more marked in countries that face large terms of trade shocks, but it can be counteracted by higher institutional quality.
{"title":"Evaluating Fiscal Performance in Latin America and the Caribbean: Structural Balance Estimates from an Original Dataset","authors":"Martín Ardanaz, Ana Corbacho, Alberto R. Gonzales, Nuria Tolsa","doi":"10.7866/HPE-RPE.16.4.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7866/HPE-RPE.16.4.3","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, an increasing number of countries have began anchoring their fiscal policy frameworks in terms of rules that target the cyclically adjusted or structural (as opposed to actual) balance in an effort to overcome problems of procyclicality and fiscal volatility. The logic for doing so is in principle compelling: rule-based fiscal policies allow automatic stabilizers to work freely during the cycle and help accumulate fiscal surpluses in good times. However, the estimation of structural balances is subject to a number of methodological challenges, including the degree of estimation uncertainty. This paper presents a range of estimates of the structural budget balance and uses them to analyze the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in Latin America and the Caribbean. Based on an original dataset comprising detailed fiscal information from 20 countries across the region between 1990 and 2014, the paper finds that the range of estimates can be large for some countries, especially those that derive substantial fiscal revenue from commodity-related activities. In addition, the evidence shows that on average, the region has followed a procyclical policy pattern: a 1 percent increase in the output gap is associated with up to a 0.55 percentage point deterioration in the structural primary balance. This pattern hides substantial regional heterogeneity: procyclicality is more marked in countries that face large terms of trade shocks, but it can be counteracted by higher institutional quality.","PeriodicalId":48669,"journal":{"name":"Hacienda Publica Espanola-Review of Public Economics","volume":"219 1","pages":"67-92"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71306839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A growing empirical literature has focused on the drivers of the remarkable reduction, albeit from comparatively high levels, in income disparities in the vast majority of Latin American countries since the 1990s. This is unlike most other parts of the world, including the OECD area, where income inequality has actually been rising. This improvement in the distribution of income has contributed to a reduction in the incidence of poverty in the region, although vulnerable groups face the risk of falling back into poverty if the economic environment deteriorates. Structural factors, such as a reduction in skill premia and labour income gains at the lower end of the income distribution, coupled with increased government spending on redistributive programmes, have been the main drivers of the reduction in inequality. Short-term, cyclical factors, including GDP growth and sizeable terms-of-trade gains in the resource-based economies, have played a relatively smaller role. Importantly, inequalities have also narrowed in non-income outcomes, such as educational attainment, the health status of the population and employment, which matter for people’s wellbeing.
{"title":"Inequalities in Latin America: Trends and implications for Policy","authors":"M. Brezzi, L. Mello","doi":"10.7866/HPE-RPE.16.4.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7866/HPE-RPE.16.4.4","url":null,"abstract":"A growing empirical literature has focused on the drivers of the remarkable reduction, albeit from comparatively high levels, in income disparities in the vast majority of Latin American countries since the 1990s. This is unlike most other parts of the world, including the OECD area, where income inequality has actually been rising. This improvement in the distribution of income has contributed to a reduction in the incidence of poverty in the region, although vulnerable groups face the risk of falling back into poverty if the economic environment deteriorates. Structural factors, such as a reduction in skill premia and labour income gains at the lower end of the income distribution, coupled with increased government spending on redistributive programmes, have been the main drivers of the reduction in inequality. Short-term, cyclical factors, including GDP growth and sizeable terms-of-trade gains in the resource-based economies, have played a relatively smaller role. Importantly, inequalities have also narrowed in non-income outcomes, such as educational attainment, the health status of the population and employment, which matter for people’s wellbeing.","PeriodicalId":48669,"journal":{"name":"Hacienda Publica Espanola-Review of Public Economics","volume":"219 1","pages":"93-120"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71306850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In his book Capital in the Twenty-First CenturyThomas Piketty combines two distinct theories to explain the stylized facts of growth and distribution in capitalist economies. The first is an analysis of the concentration of inherited wealth driven by the difference between the rate of return on capital and the rate of growth of national income. The second is essentially the neoclassical growth model with a constant (net) saving rate and an elasticity of substitution between capital and labour greater than one. I argue that for these two theories to be mutually consistent, in a long-run framework in which financial wealth converges in value with non-financial capital, the interdependence between the rates of growth and return at the aggregate level must be recognized. Since in Capital the rates of growth and return are assumed to be independently given, I show that Piketty has built a fundamentally over-determined, inconsistent analysis of growth and distribution. I also show that Piketty’s approach diverges in fundamental ways from classical, neoclassical and post-Keynesian models of growth and distribution, and in particular from the way they deal with the rates of growth and return in balanced conditions.
{"title":"Piketty on Growth and Distribution","authors":"Joan R. Rovira","doi":"10.7866/HPE-RPE.15.3.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7866/HPE-RPE.15.3.4","url":null,"abstract":"In his book Capital in the Twenty-First CenturyThomas Piketty combines two distinct theories to explain the stylized facts of growth and distribution in capitalist economies. The first is an analysis of the concentration of inherited wealth driven by the difference between the rate of return on capital and the rate of growth of national income. The second is essentially the neoclassical growth model with a constant (net) saving rate and an elasticity of substitution between capital and labour greater than one. I argue that for these two theories to be mutually consistent, in a long-run framework in which financial wealth converges in value with non-financial capital, the interdependence between the rates of growth and return at the aggregate level must be recognized. Since in Capital the rates of growth and return are assumed to be independently given, I show that Piketty has built a fundamentally over-determined, inconsistent analysis of growth and distribution. I also show that Piketty’s approach diverges in fundamental ways from classical, neoclassical and post-Keynesian models of growth and distribution, and in particular from the way they deal with the rates of growth and return in balanced conditions.","PeriodicalId":48669,"journal":{"name":"Hacienda Publica Espanola-Review of Public Economics","volume":"214 1","pages":"91-114"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71306300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Los prestamos participativos otorgados por el sector publico han sido muy utilizados en Espana como formula de apoyo publico a la financiacion de concesiones de infraestructuras, especialmente en el campo de las carreteras. Sin embargo, los metodos tradicionales de valoracion de inversiones no permiten valorar de manera precisa el alcance de este tipo de formulas. El objetivo de este trabajo es aportar una metodologia basada en el analisis de activos contingentes para cuantificar el valor que realmente aportan estas ayudas a los contratos de concesion, o, visto de otra forma, el coste real que representan para el sector publico.
{"title":"Valoración de los préstamos participativos en las concesiones de infraestructuras como activos contingentes del volumen de tráfico","authors":"Antonio L. Lara Galera, A. Soliño","doi":"10.7866/HPE-RPE.15.3.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7866/HPE-RPE.15.3.2","url":null,"abstract":"Los prestamos participativos otorgados por el sector publico han sido muy utilizados en Espana como formula de apoyo publico a la financiacion de concesiones de infraestructuras, especialmente en el campo de las carreteras. Sin embargo, los metodos tradicionales de valoracion de inversiones no permiten valorar de manera precisa el alcance de este tipo de formulas. El objetivo de este trabajo es aportar una metodologia basada en el analisis de activos contingentes para cuantificar el valor que realmente aportan estas ayudas a los contratos de concesion, o, visto de otra forma, el coste real que representan para el sector publico.","PeriodicalId":48669,"journal":{"name":"Hacienda Publica Espanola-Review of Public Economics","volume":"21 1","pages":"35-54"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71306130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
El presente trabajo constituye un diagnostico destinado a describir la importancia relativa del impuesto sobre la Renta de las Personas Fisicas en relacion con los individuos con altos ingresos en America Latina. Si bien la recaudacion del Impuesto sobre la Renta de Personas Fisicas en America Latina ha experimentado un crecimiento en la ultima decada, la razon del mismo no estriba en que los individuos de altos ingresos esten tributando en mayor medida, sino que el mismo se relaciona principalmente con crecimiento pasivo de bases imponibles, desigualdad de ingresos, aumento de tipos marginales minimos y constancia de los maximos. Lo anterior lleva a concluir que el impuesto ha perdido progresividad.
{"title":"El Impuesto sobre la renta Personal y los altos ingresos en América Latina","authors":"Dario Rossignolo","doi":"10.7866/HPE-RPE.15.3.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7866/HPE-RPE.15.3.5","url":null,"abstract":"El presente trabajo constituye un diagnostico destinado a describir la importancia relativa del impuesto sobre la Renta de las Personas Fisicas en relacion con los individuos con altos ingresos en America Latina. Si bien la recaudacion del Impuesto sobre la Renta de Personas Fisicas en America Latina ha experimentado un crecimiento en la ultima decada, la razon del mismo no estriba en que los individuos de altos ingresos esten tributando en mayor medida, sino que el mismo se relaciona principalmente con crecimiento pasivo de bases imponibles, desigualdad de ingresos, aumento de tipos marginales minimos y constancia de los maximos. Lo anterior lleva a concluir que el impuesto ha perdido progresividad.","PeriodicalId":48669,"journal":{"name":"Hacienda Publica Espanola-Review of Public Economics","volume":"214 1","pages":"115-148"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71306369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Amagoia Sagasta Elorza, José María Usategui Díaz de Otalora
We fully characterize the effects of per unit subsidies for the purchase and rental of durable goods, considering subsidies in the present and subsidies in the future, under imperfect competition. We show how welfare is affected by the simultaneous consideration of subsidies on renting and selling and how the effects of a change in one of those subsidies depends on its interaction with other subsidies. Among other results we explain why a subsidy in the future mitigates the commitment problem of producers when they sell and rent the durable good in the present, we find the region in the space of subsidies where a subsidy on sales in the present simultaneously increases the consumer, producer and total surpluses, and we show that the cost of subsidies may change in the opposite direction to the direction of change in any one subsidy.
{"title":"Purchase and rental subsidies in durable-good oligopolies","authors":"Amagoia Sagasta Elorza, José María Usategui Díaz de Otalora","doi":"10.7866/hpe-rpe.15.2.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7866/hpe-rpe.15.2.1","url":null,"abstract":"We fully characterize the effects of per unit subsidies for the purchase and rental of durable goods, considering subsidies in the present and subsidies in the future, under imperfect competition. We show how welfare is affected by the simultaneous consideration of subsidies on renting and selling and how the effects of a change in one of those subsidies depends on its interaction with other subsidies. Among other results we explain why a subsidy in the future mitigates the commitment problem of producers when they sell and rent the durable good in the present, we find the region in the space of subsidies where a subsidy on sales in the present simultaneously increases the consumer, producer and total surpluses, and we show that the cost of subsidies may change in the opposite direction to the direction of change in any one subsidy.","PeriodicalId":48669,"journal":{"name":"Hacienda Publica Espanola-Review of Public Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":"11-40"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2015-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71306058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Great Recession has implied a strong increase of the unemployment rate in Spain that surpassed 25% in 2012, the highest rate in western economies in that year. At the same time, the assessment of political situation has greatly deteriorated. The goal of this paper is to study how the assessment of political situation has moved along the business cycle in Spain over the last twenty years by using a battery of statistical methods. Moreover, this study also investigates the existence of a long-run relationship applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. Once the existence of a long-run relationship is evidenced, we construct a model that allows us to quantitatively evaluate the impact of the business cycle on the Spanish political situation. The empirical findings reveal that the unemployment rate has had a significant lagged impact on the assessment of political situation.
{"title":"Assessment of Political Situation over the Business Cycle in Spain: A Time Series Analysis","authors":"M. Diaz, G. Miguez, B. Manzano, J. Moreno","doi":"10.7866/hpe-rpe.15.2.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7866/hpe-rpe.15.2.2","url":null,"abstract":"The Great Recession has implied a strong increase of the unemployment rate in Spain that surpassed 25% in 2012, the highest rate in western economies in that year. At the same time, the assessment of political situation has greatly deteriorated. The goal of this paper is to study how the assessment of political situation has moved along the business cycle in Spain over the last twenty years by using a battery of statistical methods. Moreover, this study also investigates the existence of a long-run relationship applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. Once the existence of a long-run relationship is evidenced, we construct a model that allows us to quantitatively evaluate the impact of the business cycle on the Spanish political situation. The empirical findings reveal that the unemployment rate has had a significant lagged impact on the assessment of political situation.","PeriodicalId":48669,"journal":{"name":"Hacienda Publica Espanola-Review of Public Economics","volume":"16 1","pages":"41-62"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2015-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71306091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyzes the political economy of income redistribution when voters are concerned about tax compliance. We consider a two stage-model where there is a two party competition over the tax rate in the first stage and voters decide about their level of tax compliance in the second stage. We model political competition a la Wittman with the ideology of parties endogenously determined at equilibri¬um. We calibrate the model for an average of EU-27 countries. Numerical simulations provide the tax rates proposed by the two parties and the level of tax compliance. We find that a decrease in the per¬ceived average level of tax compliance, increase the probability that the party offering the lowest in¬come tax will win. Moreover, the same result is obtained when parties’ uncertainty about the prefer¬ences of the median voter increases
{"title":"Tax Morale with Partisan Parties","authors":"Ángel Solano-García","doi":"10.7866/hpe-rpe.15.2.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7866/hpe-rpe.15.2.4","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the political economy of income redistribution when voters are concerned about tax compliance. We consider a two stage-model where there is a two party competition over the tax rate in the first stage and voters decide about their level of tax compliance in the second stage. We model political competition a la Wittman with the ideology of parties endogenously determined at equilibri¬um. We calibrate the model for an average of EU-27 countries. Numerical simulations provide the tax rates proposed by the two parties and the level of tax compliance. We find that a decrease in the per¬ceived average level of tax compliance, increase the probability that the party offering the lowest in¬come tax will win. Moreover, the same result is obtained when parties’ uncertainty about the prefer¬ences of the median voter increases","PeriodicalId":48669,"journal":{"name":"Hacienda Publica Espanola-Review of Public Economics","volume":"213 1","pages":"83-108"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2015-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71306119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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