Lancet Global Health最新文献

Background: A pan-tuberculosis regimen that could be initiated without knowledge of drug susceptibility has been proposed as an objective of tuberculosis regimen development. We modelled the health and economic benefits of such a regimen and analysed which of its features contribute most to impact and savings.

Methods: We constructed a mathematical model of tuberculosis treatment parameterised with data from the published literature specific to three countries with a high tuberculosis burden (India, the Philippines, and South Africa). Our model simulated cohorts of newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients, including drug susceptibility testing if performed, regimen assignment, discontinuation, adherence, costs, and resulting outcomes of durable cure (microbiological cure without relapse), need for retreatment, or death. We compared a pan-tuberculosis regimen meeting the WHO 2023 target regimen profile against the standard of care of separate rifampicin-susceptible and rifampicin-resistant regimens. We estimated incremental cures; averted deaths, secondary cases, and costs; and prices below which a pan-tuberculosis regimen would be cost saving. We also assessed scenarios intended to describe which mechanisms of benefit from a pan-tuberculosis regimen (including improved characteristics compared with the current rifampicin-susceptible and rifampicin-resistant regimens and improved regimen assignment and retention in care for patients with rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis) would be most impactful. Results are presented as a range of means across countries with the most extreme 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) from the three UI ranges.

Findings: Compared with the standard of care, a pan-tuberculosis regimen could increase the proportion of patients durably cured after an initial treatment attempt from 69-71% (95% UI 57-80) to 75-76% (68-83), preventing 30-32% of the deaths (20-43) and 17-20% of the transmission (9-29) that occur after initial tuberculosis diagnosis. Considering savings to the health system and patients during and after the initial treatment attempt, the regimen could reduce non-drug costs by 32-42% (22-49) and would be cost saving at prices below US$170-340 (130-510). A rifamycin-containing regimen that otherwise met pan-tuberculosis targets yielded only slightly less impact, indicating that most of the benefits from a pan-tuberculosis regimen resulted from its improvements upon the rifampicin-susceptible standard of care. Eliminating non-adherence and treatment discontinuation, for example via a long-acting injectable regimen, increased health impact and savings.

Interpretation: In countries with a high tuberculosis burden, a shorter, highly efficacious, safe, and tolerable regimen to treat all tuberculosis could yield substantial health improvements and savings.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background: Patient-level data on life-threatening respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in children in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) are scarce, and this scarcity might limit demand for RSV interventions in LMICs who rely on support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We aimed to describe the characteristics of RSV-positive children younger than 2 years who were admitted to paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) with extended severe acute respiratory infection (eSARI) in Gavi-eligible countries.

Methods: The RSV GOLD-ICU Network study is a 2-year prospective, multicountry, observational study of children younger than 2 years admitted to a PICU with eSARI. The study was conducted at 12 referral hospitals in Bolivia, Cameroon, The Gambia, Ghana, Haiti, Mozambique, Nepal, Nigeria, Sudan, and Tanzania. For comparison with a high-income country, patients were also included from two referral hospitals in the Netherlands. Children were eligible for inclusion if they were aged between 4 days and 2 years, admitted to a PICU, and met the WHO eSARI definition. RSV infection was confirmed within 72 h of PICU admission via a molecular point-of-care test at LMIC study sites and via a PCR test at the Dutch study sites. Clinical data were extracted from admission charts of patients; underlying conditions that were identified at admission were classified as comorbidities. Socioeconomic and demographic data were collected via a written, structured, parental questionnaire.

Findings: Between April 28, 2021, and Sept 30, 2023, we included 2118 children who were admitted to a PICU with eSARI in the ten participating countries. 614 (29·0%; range 23·0-38·2) of 2118 children tested positive for RSV and 608 were included in descriptive analyses as six medical files were lost at one study site and data could not be retrieved. Among all 608 children infected with RSV, 379 (62%) were male and 229 (38%) were female. Median age at testing was 3·0 months (IQR 1·3-7·7). 30 (5%) of 608 children died from RSV infection. RSV fatality occurred at seven of ten participating LMIC study sites and was highest in Tanzania (seven [27%] of 26 children). Median age at testing of children who died with RSV infection was 1·8 months (IQR 1·1-4·2).

Interpretation: To our knowledge, this is the first prospective, multicountry study reporting data from children admitted to a PICU with life-threatening RSV infection in Gavi-eligible countries. As there is no access to intensive care for most children in LMICs, RSV prevention is urgently needed.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Translations: For the Arabic, Portuguese, Hausa and Nepali translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Background: Inadequate micronutrient intakes and related deficiencies are a major challenge to global public health. Analyses over the past 10 years have assessed global micronutrient deficiencies and inadequate nutrient supplies, but there have been no global estimates of inadequate micronutrient intakes. We aimed to estimate the global prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intakes for 15 essential micronutrients and to identify dietary nutrient gaps in specific demographic groups and countries.

Methods: In this modelling analysis, we adopted a novel approach to estimating micronutrient intake, which accounts for the shape of a population's nutrient intake distribution and is based on dietary intake data from 31 countries. Using a globally harmonised set of age-specific and sex-specific nutrient requirements, we then applied these distributions to publicly available data from the Global Dietary Database on modelled median intakes of 15 micronutrients for 34 age-sex groups from 185 countries, to estimate the prevalence of inadequate nutrient intakes for 99·3% of the global population.

Findings: On the basis of estimates of nutrient intake from food (excluding fortification and supplementation), more than 5 billion people do not consume enough iodine (68% of the global population), vitamin E (67%), and calcium (66%). More than 4 billion people do not consume enough iron (65%), riboflavin (55%), folate (54%), and vitamin C (53%). Within the same country and age groups, estimated inadequate intakes were higher for women than for men for iodine, vitamin B12, iron, and selenium and higher for men than for women for magnesium, vitamin B6, zinc, vitamin C, vitamin A, thiamin, and niacin.

Interpretation: To our knowledge, this analysis provides the first global estimates of inadequate micronutrient intakes using dietary intake data, highlighting highly prevalent gaps across nutrients and variability by sex. These results can be used by public health practitioners to target populations in need of intervention.

Funding: The National Institutes of Health and the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs.