Pub Date : 2023-04-12DOI: 10.30430/gjae.2023.5.zucker
Marlen Haß
Im Zuckerwirtschaftsjahr 2021/22 (ZWJ, Okt.-Sept.) hat sich die im Vorjahr beobachtete Erholung der Weltmarktpreise für Roh- und Weißzucker deutlich verlangsamt. Hauptursache hierfür waren makroökonomische Unsicherheiten. Dabei dominierte zu Beginn des Zuckerwirtschaftsjahres die Entdeckung neuer Corona-Varianten und die damit einhergehende Sorge um erneute, lang andauernde Lockdowns das Marktgeschehen. Zum Ende des Zuckerwirtschaftsjahres haben stark ansteigende Inflationsraten und die damit verbundene Erwartung einer deutlichen Abschwächung des Konsums auf die Preise gedrückt. Trotz einer weltweit knappen Versorgungslage hat sich der Aufwärtstrend an den internationalen Zuckerbörsen somit im Verlauf des ZWJ 2021/22 deutlich verlangsamt, und auch in den kommenden Monaten könnten die Preise weiter unter Druck geraten, da für das ZWJ 2022/23 mit einem globalen Produktionsüberschuss gerechnet wird. Höhere Produktionsmengen werden vor allem für Brasilien und Thailand erwartet, wohingegen sich in der EU-27 aufgrund trockener Witterungsbedingungen ein Rückgang der Zuckererzeugung gegenüber dem Vorjahr abzeichnet. Anders als der Weltmarkt bleibt der EU-Zuckermarkt damit knapp versorgt, wodurch sich das Preisniveau auf dem EU-Binnenmarkt weiter erholen könnte. Bereits in den letzten Monaten des ZWJ 2021/22 war der EU-Zuckerpreis in die Höhe geschnellt und hatte wieder in etwa das Niveau des ZWJ 2016/17 erreicht, dem letzten Jahr vor Aufhebung der Produktionsquoten in der EU. Trotz steigender Preise schreitet die Konsolidierung des EU-Zuckermarktes jedoch weiter voran. So war Deutschland im ZWJ 2021/22 das zweite Jahr in Folge das größte Zucker produzierende Land der EU und hat damit Frankreich an der Spitze des Rankings abgelöst. Polen kann den dritten Platz behaupten. Die Entwicklung des Isoglukosemarktes war dagegen auch im ZWJ 2021/22 wenig dynamisch. Bei einer anhaltend knappen Marktversorgung mit Zucker und weiter steigenden Preisen könnte die Versorgungslücke in der EU jedoch künftig nicht nur durch steigende Zuckerimporte, sondern auch durch einen wachsenden Marktanteil von Isoglukose geschlossen werden. Die zukünftige Entwicklung des EU-Zucker- und Isoglukosemarktes bleibt damit spannend.
{"title":"Der Markt für Zucker 2022","authors":"Marlen Haß","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2023.5.zucker","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2023.5.zucker","url":null,"abstract":"Im Zuckerwirtschaftsjahr 2021/22 (ZWJ, Okt.-Sept.) hat sich die im Vorjahr beobachtete Erholung der Weltmarktpreise für Roh- und Weißzucker deutlich verlangsamt. Hauptursache hierfür waren makroökonomische Unsicherheiten. Dabei dominierte zu Beginn des Zuckerwirtschaftsjahres die Entdeckung neuer Corona-Varianten und die damit einhergehende Sorge um erneute, lang andauernde Lockdowns das Marktgeschehen. Zum Ende des Zuckerwirtschaftsjahres haben stark ansteigende Inflationsraten und die damit verbundene Erwartung einer deutlichen Abschwächung des Konsums auf die Preise gedrückt. Trotz einer weltweit knappen Versorgungslage hat sich der Aufwärtstrend an den internationalen Zuckerbörsen somit im Verlauf des ZWJ 2021/22 deutlich verlangsamt, und auch in den kommenden Monaten könnten die Preise weiter unter Druck geraten, da für das ZWJ 2022/23 mit einem globalen Produktionsüberschuss gerechnet wird. Höhere Produktionsmengen werden vor allem für Brasilien und Thailand erwartet, wohingegen sich in der EU-27 aufgrund trockener Witterungsbedingungen ein Rückgang der Zuckererzeugung gegenüber dem Vorjahr abzeichnet. Anders als der Weltmarkt bleibt der EU-Zuckermarkt damit knapp versorgt, wodurch sich das Preisniveau auf dem EU-Binnenmarkt weiter erholen könnte. Bereits in den letzten Monaten des ZWJ 2021/22 war der EU-Zuckerpreis in die Höhe geschnellt und hatte wieder in etwa das Niveau des ZWJ 2016/17 erreicht, dem letzten Jahr vor Aufhebung der Produktionsquoten in der EU. Trotz steigender Preise schreitet die Konsolidierung des EU-Zuckermarktes jedoch weiter voran. So war Deutschland im ZWJ 2021/22 das zweite Jahr in Folge das größte Zucker produzierende Land der EU und hat damit Frankreich an der Spitze des Rankings abgelöst. Polen kann den dritten Platz behaupten. Die Entwicklung des Isoglukosemarktes war dagegen auch im ZWJ 2021/22 wenig dynamisch. Bei einer anhaltend knappen Marktversorgung mit Zucker und weiter steigenden Preisen könnte die Versorgungslücke in der EU jedoch künftig nicht nur durch steigende Zuckerimporte, sondern auch durch einen wachsenden Marktanteil von Isoglukose geschlossen werden. Die zukünftige Entwicklung des EU-Zucker- und Isoglukosemarktes bleibt damit spannend.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85870951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dorothee Schulze Schwering, Lena Focke-Meermann, A. Spiller
E-commerce in agriculture is gaining increasing attention, but market penetration is currently low, and companies are barely exploiting its full potential. Identifying and satisfying farmers’ expectations of e-commerce websites for farm inputs is crucial to reduce this opportunity loss. This paper presents a qualitative case study using the “thinking aloud” method, investigating the factors of an agricultural e-commerce site that need to be improved to increase customer satisfaction. The results reveal that farmers’ dissatisfaction with and reluctance to engage in agricultural e-commerce are linked to deficiencies in the store design. These deficiencies are especially apparent in the incongruent design of off- and online stores. Congruity is needed not only in terms of price but, more importantly, in terms of design (e.g., navigation, product order) and services. However, this is often lacking. High channel congruence improves trust in the online provider and keeps perceived transaction costs low. The study emphasizes the importance of customer centricity and a channel integration strategy in agricultural trade and provides indications of which elements lead to higher customer satisfaction.
{"title":"E-Commerce in German Agriculture: A Case Study Investigating Farmer Satisfaction Applying the Thinking Aloud Method","authors":"Dorothee Schulze Schwering, Lena Focke-Meermann, A. Spiller","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2023.0200","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2023.0200","url":null,"abstract":"E-commerce in agriculture is gaining increasing attention, but market penetration is currently low, and companies are barely exploiting its full potential. Identifying and satisfying farmers’ expectations of e-commerce websites for farm inputs is crucial to reduce this opportunity loss. This paper presents a qualitative case study using the “thinking aloud” method, investigating the factors of an agricultural e-commerce site that need to be improved to increase customer satisfaction. The results reveal that farmers’ dissatisfaction with and reluctance to engage in agricultural e-commerce are linked to deficiencies in the store design. These deficiencies are especially apparent in the incongruent design of off- and online stores. Congruity is needed not only in terms of price but, more importantly, in terms of design (e.g., navigation, product order) and services. However, this is often lacking. High channel congruence improves trust in the online provider and keeps perceived transaction costs low. The study emphasizes the importance of customer centricity and a channel integration strategy in agricultural trade and provides indications of which elements lead to higher customer satisfaction.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"79 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80907458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A vivid debate is ongoing in the scientific community about statistical malpractice and the related publication bias. No general consensus exists on the consequences and this is reflected in heterogeneous rules defined by scientific journals on the use and reporting of statistical inference. This paper aims at providing an overview on the debate, discussing how it is perceived by the agricultural economics community, and deriving implications for our roles as researchers, contributors to the scientific publication process, and teachers. Following a ‘Mixed Methods Review’, we start by summarizing the current state of the p-value debate in the context of the replication crisis and commonly applied statistical practices in our community. This is followed by motivation, design, results and discussion of an explorative and descriptive survey on statistical knowledge and practice among the researchers in the agricultural economics community in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Instead of providing specific guidelines or rules, we derive implications for our roles in the scientific process to support a needed long-term cultural change regarding empirical scientific practices. Acceptance of scientific work should largely be based on the theoretical and methodological rigor and where the perceived relevance arises from the questions asked, the methodology employed, and the data used but not from the results generated. Revised and clear journal guidelines, the creation of resources for teaching and research, and public recognition of good practice are suggested measures to move forward.
{"title":"The p-Value Debate and Statistical (Mal)practice – Implications for the Agricultural and Food Economics Community","authors":"T. Heckelei, S. Hüttel, M. Odening, Jens Rommel","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2023.0231","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2023.0231","url":null,"abstract":"A vivid debate is ongoing in the scientific community about statistical malpractice and the related publication bias. No general consensus exists on the consequences and this is reflected in heterogeneous rules defined by scientific journals on the use and reporting of statistical inference. This paper aims at providing an overview on the debate, discussing how it is perceived by the agricultural economics community, and deriving implications for our roles as researchers, contributors to the scientific publication process, and teachers. Following a ‘Mixed Methods Review’, we start by summarizing the current state of the p-value debate in the context of the replication crisis and commonly applied statistical practices in our community. This is followed by motivation, design, results and discussion of an explorative and descriptive survey on statistical knowledge and practice among the researchers in the agricultural economics community in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Instead of providing specific guidelines or rules, we derive implications for our roles in the scientific process to support a needed long-term cultural change regarding empirical scientific practices. Acceptance of scientific work should largely be based on the theoretical and methodological rigor and where the perceived relevance arises from the questions asked, the methodology employed, and the data used but not from the results generated. Revised and clear journal guidelines, the creation of resources for teaching and research, and public recognition of good practice are suggested measures to move forward.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"82 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90884388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform has met with large-scale protests from farmers throughout Europe, intending to change one of the most controversial components: direct payments. We analyze German farmers' attitudes and understanding of direct payments. The study employs a survey of 435 farmers collected from January to February 2021. Using cluster analysis and quantitative content analysis, we identified three distinct groups: (1) The “Independents” (43.7%) are entrepreneurs and have a competitive mindset. They would prefer to abolish direct payments associated with more freedom from policy conditions. (2) The “Conservatives” (27.0%) advocate an income policy based on direct payments, and they reject higher environmental standards. (3) The “Environmentalists” (30.3%) emphasize a pronounced environmental awareness, fa-voring an environmentally performance-based approach. The results show that policies are often perceived differently than they are intentionally designed. Improving the effectiveness of the policy measure requires sufficient information about the CAP's objectives for farmers, focusing on more transparent communication strategies. From a policy perspective, a more differentiated design of policy instruments and longer transformation periods are needed to engage farmers in policy change.
{"title":"Farmers’ Attitudes toward the Future of Direct Payments: An Empirical Study from Germany","authors":"Sabrina Bethge, Sebastian Lakner","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2023.0268","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2023.0268","url":null,"abstract":"The new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform has met with large-scale protests from farmers throughout Europe, intending to change one of the most controversial components: direct payments. We analyze German farmers' attitudes and understanding of direct payments. The study employs a survey of 435 farmers collected from January to February 2021. Using cluster analysis and quantitative content analysis, we identified three distinct groups: (1) The “Independents” (43.7%) are entrepreneurs and have a competitive mindset. They would prefer to abolish direct payments associated with more freedom from policy conditions. (2) The “Conservatives” (27.0%) advocate an income policy based on direct payments, and they reject higher environmental standards. (3) The “Environmentalists” (30.3%) emphasize a pronounced environmental awareness, fa-voring an environmentally performance-based approach. The results show that policies are often perceived differently than they are intentionally designed. Improving the effectiveness of the policy measure requires sufficient information about the CAP's objectives for farmers, focusing on more transparent communication strategies. From a policy perspective, a more differentiated design of policy instruments and longer transformation periods are needed to engage farmers in policy change.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"80 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85588288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Farmstead dairies are a small but growing segment in the German dairy market, but there is little information about them. They produce and process milk from their own farm or additionally from a small number of farms from the surrounding area and market it under their own brands. Thus, farmstead dairies offer an alternative for milk producers who wish to generate added value for their milk. Although developing a farmstead dairy with marketing takes time and money and involves some risk, it offers dairy farms an opportunity to be less dependent on outside dairies, to stabilise or increase their income, and to spread their risk. Yet, only limited knowledge is available regarding success factors and their effect on the success of farmstead dairies. The present study addresses this research gap by conducting an online survey of farmstead dairies in Germany to analyse the influence of various internal and external factors on the success of this type of dairy. The results revealed that organic production, a larger processing volume and a product portfolio comprising both Yellow Line and White Line products have a positive effect on success. Furthermore, good cooperation between farmstead dairies and their veterinarians located in a region with a relatively prosperous population and a high population density contributes to the success of farmstead dairies. In addition, the results showed that increased demand during the COVID-19 pandemic has had a positive impact on their success. The results show that there are several starting points for farmstead dairy managers to positively influence the success of their businesses. At the same time, however, there are also a number of factors over which they have no influence.
{"title":"An Analysis of Success Factors for German Farmstead Dairies","authors":"Janina Knuck","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2023.0285","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2023.0285","url":null,"abstract":"Farmstead dairies are a small but growing segment in the German dairy market, but there is little information about them. They produce and process milk from their own farm or additionally from a small number of farms from the surrounding area and market it under their own brands. Thus, farmstead dairies offer an alternative for milk producers who wish to generate added value for their milk. Although developing a farmstead dairy with marketing takes time and money and involves some risk, it offers dairy farms an opportunity to be less dependent on outside dairies, to stabilise or increase their income, and to spread their risk. Yet, only limited knowledge is available regarding success factors and their effect on the success of farmstead dairies. The present study addresses this research gap by conducting an online survey of farmstead dairies in Germany to analyse the influence of various internal and external factors on the success of this type of dairy. The results revealed that organic production, a larger processing volume and a product portfolio comprising both Yellow Line and White Line products have a positive effect on success. Furthermore, good cooperation between farmstead dairies and their veterinarians located in a region with a relatively prosperous population and a high population density contributes to the success of farmstead dairies. In addition, the results showed that increased demand during the COVID-19 pandemic has had a positive impact on their success. The results show that there are several starting points for farmstead dairy managers to positively influence the success of their businesses. At the same time, however, there are also a number of factors over which they have no influence.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90410720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Als Reaktion auf die neuen Herausforderungen von geänderten Nachhaltigkeitsanforderungen und Klimawandel im Agrarsektor sind nachhaltige Prozessinnovationen ein Weg die Produktion von Nahrungsmitteln mit vielfältigen Ökosystemdienstleistungen zu verbinden. Trotz ihrer seit längerem in der Forschung beschriebenen Vorteile sind die tatsächlichen Adoptionsraten dieser Innovationen in der landwirtschaftlichen Praxis in Deutschland eher gering. Um ihre weitere Verbreitung zu fördern, kommt der bislang in der Forschung kaum untersuchten Frage nach den Adoptionsfaktoren nachhaltiger Prozessinnovationen eine besondere Bedeutung zu. Das Ziel der vorliegenden Studie ist es, die Zugehörigkeit landwirtschaftlicher Entscheider*innen zu den verschiedenen Adoptionsstufen ‚Absichtslosigkeit‘, ‚Absichtsbildung‘, ‚Vorbereitung‘ und ‚Handlung‘ nachhaltiger Prozessinnovationen in der Landwirtschaft, am Beispiel von Agroforstsystemen, zu bestimmen und den Einfluss verschiedener Landwirt*innen- und Betriebscharakteristika als Adoptionsfaktoren auf die Stufenzugehörigkeit der Landwirt*innen darzustellen. Auf Basis quantitativer Befragungsdaten von 209 deutschen Landwirt*innen wird das transtheoretische Modell der Verhaltensänderung auf die Adoption von Innovationen mittels deskriptiver Statistiken, konfirmatorischer Faktorenanalyse und ordinal logistischer Regressionsanalyse angewendet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass bei den aktuell primär vorherrschenden niedrigen Adoptionsstufen die Einstellung der Landwirt*innen zur Implementierung von Agroforstsystemen auf dem eigenen Betrieb als Adoptionsfaktor die Adoption am stärksten positiv beeinflusst. Während auch bestehende Erfahrungen mit erneuerbaren Energien einen positiven Einfluss auf die Adoption haben, trifft das Gegenteil auf vorherige Erfahrungen mit Kurzumtriebsplantagen (KUP) und Agroforstsystemen (AFS) zu. Regional betrachtet ist zudem eine höhere Adoptionswahrscheinlichkeit in Süddeutschland zu beobachten. Basierend auf den Ergebnissen werden die folgenden zielgerichteten Maßnahmen zur weiteren Verbreitung innovativer Landnutzungssysteme durch Verbesserung der Einstellung und die Etablierung einer Gruppe von Pionierlandwirt*innen entwickelt: Verbesserung der Kommunikation über Anforderungen und Potenziale von Innovationen, stärkere Verankerung von nachhaltigen Prozessinnovationen in den Curricula der landwirtschaftlichen Berufsausbildungen und Studiengänge, Einrichtung eines permanenten Schulungs- und Weiterbildungsangebot, Auflage von langfristigen, niedrigschwelligen Förderprogrammen und regionale Ausdifferenzierung von Maßnahmen.
{"title":"Das Verhalten landwirtschaftlicher Entscheider*innen bei der Adoption nachhaltiger Prozessinnovationen in Deutschland","authors":"Verena Otter, M. Deutsch","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2023.0122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2023.0122","url":null,"abstract":"Als Reaktion auf die neuen Herausforderungen von geänderten Nachhaltigkeitsanforderungen und Klimawandel im Agrarsektor sind nachhaltige Prozessinnovationen ein Weg die Produktion von Nahrungsmitteln mit vielfältigen Ökosystemdienstleistungen zu verbinden. Trotz ihrer seit längerem in der Forschung beschriebenen Vorteile sind die tatsächlichen Adoptionsraten dieser Innovationen in der landwirtschaftlichen Praxis in Deutschland eher gering. Um ihre weitere Verbreitung zu fördern, kommt der bislang in der Forschung kaum untersuchten Frage nach den Adoptionsfaktoren nachhaltiger Prozessinnovationen eine besondere Bedeutung zu. Das Ziel der vorliegenden Studie ist es, die Zugehörigkeit landwirtschaftlicher Entscheider*innen zu den verschiedenen Adoptionsstufen ‚Absichtslosigkeit‘, ‚Absichtsbildung‘, ‚Vorbereitung‘ und ‚Handlung‘ nachhaltiger Prozessinnovationen in der Landwirtschaft, am Beispiel von Agroforstsystemen, zu bestimmen und den Einfluss verschiedener Landwirt*innen- und Betriebscharakteristika als Adoptionsfaktoren auf die Stufenzugehörigkeit der Landwirt*innen darzustellen. Auf Basis quantitativer Befragungsdaten von 209 deutschen Landwirt*innen wird das transtheoretische Modell der Verhaltensänderung auf die Adoption von Innovationen mittels deskriptiver Statistiken, konfirmatorischer Faktorenanalyse und ordinal logistischer Regressionsanalyse angewendet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass bei den aktuell primär vorherrschenden niedrigen Adoptionsstufen die Einstellung der Landwirt*innen zur Implementierung von Agroforstsystemen auf dem eigenen Betrieb als Adoptionsfaktor die Adoption am stärksten positiv beeinflusst. Während auch bestehende Erfahrungen mit erneuerbaren Energien einen positiven Einfluss auf die Adoption haben, trifft das Gegenteil auf vorherige Erfahrungen mit Kurzumtriebsplantagen (KUP) und Agroforstsystemen (AFS) zu. Regional betrachtet ist zudem eine höhere Adoptionswahrscheinlichkeit in Süddeutschland zu beobachten. Basierend auf den Ergebnissen werden die folgenden zielgerichteten Maßnahmen zur weiteren Verbreitung innovativer Landnutzungssysteme durch Verbesserung der Einstellung und die Etablierung einer Gruppe von Pionierlandwirt*innen entwickelt: Verbesserung der Kommunikation über Anforderungen und Potenziale von Innovationen, stärkere Verankerung von nachhaltigen Prozessinnovationen in den Curricula der landwirtschaftlichen Berufsausbildungen und Studiengänge, Einrichtung eines permanenten Schulungs- und Weiterbildungsangebot, Auflage von langfristigen, niedrigschwelligen Förderprogrammen und regionale Ausdifferenzierung von Maßnahmen.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"118 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86197878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Official statistics are often based on samples representing a certain population. Because participation in a sample is usually voluntary, bias might result from so-called non-sampling errors such as nonresponse. Weighting procedures are intended to correct these errors by assigning a certain weight to each observation in the sample. In many official agricultural statistics, such as the Bavarian Agricultural Report, poststratification is used. In this process, the population is stratified according to different dimensions (e.g. farm type, farm location and farm size) and weights are assigned to all farms in a stratum so that the sum of the weights in that stratum corresponds to the number of observations in that stratum in the population. However, when estimating the population average, important characteristics (such as the farm size) may still be biased. Using a Bavarian farm sample, the present study shows how the so-called calibration approach, utilising auxiliary variables to adjust weights, outperforms the poststratification procedure in terms of estimating important population characteristics.
{"title":"Using Auxiliary Information to Improve Agricultural Statistics – Advantages of the Calibration Approach over Poststratification Weights","authors":"Lucian Stanca, D. Hoop, J. Sauer","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2022.0294","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2022.0294","url":null,"abstract":"Official statistics are often based on samples representing a certain population. Because participation in a sample is usually voluntary, bias might result from so-called non-sampling errors such as nonresponse. Weighting procedures are intended to correct these errors by assigning a certain weight to each observation in the sample. In many official agricultural statistics, such as the Bavarian Agricultural Report, poststratification is used. In this process, the population is stratified according to different dimensions (e.g. farm type, farm location and farm size) and weights are assigned to all farms in a stratum so that the sum of the weights in that stratum corresponds to the number of observations in that stratum in the population. However, when estimating the population average, important characteristics (such as the farm size) may still be biased. Using a Bavarian farm sample, the present study shows how the so-called calibration approach, utilising auxiliary variables to adjust weights, outperforms the poststratification procedure in terms of estimating important population characteristics.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73616639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Complementing more specific “p-value discussions”, this paper presents fundamental arguments for when null hypothesis statistical significance tests (NHST) are required and appropriate. The arguments, which are paradigmatic rather than technical, are operationalised and broken down to the extent that their logic can be mapped into a decision tree for the use of NHST. We derive a perspective that does not ban p-values but proposes to minimize their use. P-values will become rather rare in (agricultural) economics if they are not applied in any cases, where the conditions for their proper use are violated or where their use is not appropriate or required in order to answer the questions asked of the data. The accompanying shift from prioritising inferential statistics to recognising the value of descriptive statistics requires not only a change in entrenched habits of thought. This shift also has the potential to trigger changes in the research processes and in the evaluation of new approaches within the disciplines.
{"title":"Beyond P-Value-Obsession: When are Statistical Hypothesis Tests Required and Appropriate?","authors":"A. Margarian","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2022.0283","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2022.0283","url":null,"abstract":"Complementing more specific “p-value discussions”, this paper presents fundamental arguments for when null hypothesis statistical significance tests (NHST) are required and appropriate. The arguments, which are paradigmatic rather than technical, are operationalised and broken down to the extent that their logic can be mapped into a decision tree for the use of NHST. We derive a perspective that does not ban p-values but proposes to minimize their use. P-values will become rather rare in (agricultural) economics if they are not applied in any cases, where the conditions for their proper use are violated or where their use is not appropriate or required in order to answer the questions asked of the data. The accompanying shift from prioritising inferential statistics to recognising the value of descriptive statistics requires not only a change in entrenched habits of thought. This shift also has the potential to trigger changes in the research processes and in the evaluation of new approaches within the disciplines.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82187338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In view of increasing energy and resource scarcities, nutrient recycling from domestic wastewater is a promising way to obtain mineral fertilizers. Given the lacking evidence about the acceptance of recycling fertilizers by the farming sector, we elicited farmer preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for selected attributes of mineral fertilizers made from domestic sewage and kitchen waste. We conducted a Discrete Choice Experiment with 206 German farmers and fitted a Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. As-suming an average market price level of around 300 euros per tonne of N-P-K fertilizer, the choice exper-iment revealed that farmers not engaged in non-food production such as forage cultivation or renewable energies activities and without farmer-to-consumer direct marketing would accept a recycling fertilizer only together with a financial compensation via price discount of approximately 10%. The average WTP drops considerably if a fertilizer’s heavy metal contents are relatively high and if the absence of drug residues cannot be guaranteed, whereas a customizable nutrient composition and a constant supply availability would have a sales promoting effect. Farmers’ characteristics can only partly explain the notable heterogeneity of the WTP for the considered fertilizer attributes. Even though the WTP for a recycling fertilizer is on average less than that for a conventional mineral fertilizer, the estimated WTP standard deviations suggest that not all farmers expect a financial compensation via price discount when purchasing recycling fertilizers.
{"title":"Farmers’ Preferences for Fertilizers derived from Domestic Sewage and Kitchen Waste – A Discrete Choice Experiment in Germany","authors":"Katrin Utai, M. Narjes, T. Krimly, C. Lippert","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2022.0235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2022.0235","url":null,"abstract":"In view of increasing energy and resource scarcities, nutrient recycling from domestic wastewater is a promising way to obtain mineral fertilizers. Given the lacking evidence about the acceptance of recycling fertilizers by the farming sector, we elicited farmer preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for selected attributes of mineral fertilizers made from domestic sewage and kitchen waste. We conducted a Discrete Choice Experiment with 206 German farmers and fitted a Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. As-suming an average market price level of around 300 euros per tonne of N-P-K fertilizer, the choice exper-iment revealed that farmers not engaged in non-food production such as forage cultivation or renewable energies activities and without farmer-to-consumer direct marketing would accept a recycling fertilizer only together with a financial compensation via price discount of approximately 10%. The average WTP drops considerably if a fertilizer’s heavy metal contents are relatively high and if the absence of drug residues cannot be guaranteed, whereas a customizable nutrient composition and a constant supply availability would have a sales promoting effect. Farmers’ characteristics can only partly explain the notable heterogeneity of the WTP for the considered fertilizer attributes. Even though the WTP for a recycling fertilizer is on average less than that for a conventional mineral fertilizer, the estimated WTP standard deviations suggest that not all farmers expect a financial compensation via price discount when purchasing recycling fertilizers.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81057306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marvin Berndt, Kirsten Boysen-Urban, Simon Ehjeij, Amelia Espey, A. Feuerbacher, Dorothee Flaig, T. Heimann, S. Hess, M. Kempen, F. Schünemann, C. Wieck
In light of Russia’s war in Ukraine, three widely used trade and sector models were applied to assess: i) global food and nutrition security, ii) the effects on the bioeconomy, and iii) the implications for the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Simulation results show that an export stop of agri-food commodities in Ukraine and Russia results in a substantial increase in global agri-food prices under short-term assumptions. However, the longer-term effects are much smaller due to global supply responses. The effects on food security depend on the importance of cereals in countries’ diets. Furthermore, due to subsequent Gross Domestic Product declines, there may be further negative long-term implications for food security, especially in Africa. An additional scenario with a 10% increase in the global oil price shows that European Union (EU) biofuel production is heavily affected. The implementation of the initially envisaged CAP requirement of a set-aside of 4% of the farmed area would have little effect on EU cereal production, whereas a 10% reduction in fertiliser availability in the EU would lead to a decline in net production of cereals. A joint reduction in pig herd size and pork consumption could partly mitigate the negative consequences of reduced fertiliser availability, otherwise leakage would occur either through the import of pork into the EU for consumption or the production of EU pork meat for export markets. To mitigate the market effects of the war, EU policymakers should: i) encourage efficient (animal) nutrient use to offset fertiliser shortages and land use choices that increase market availability of food crops, ii) encourage restructuring of animal production in line with consumption developments to prevent leakage effects and ensure that non-food products are used efficiently as feed products, and iii) support vulnerable households to secure short-term food access.
{"title":"Implications of Russia’s War in Ukraine for the Global Agri-Food Sector – An Ex-Ante Assessment using Different Simulation Models","authors":"Marvin Berndt, Kirsten Boysen-Urban, Simon Ehjeij, Amelia Espey, A. Feuerbacher, Dorothee Flaig, T. Heimann, S. Hess, M. Kempen, F. Schünemann, C. Wieck","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2022.0310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2022.0310","url":null,"abstract":"In light of Russia’s war in Ukraine, three widely used trade and sector models were applied to assess: i) global food and nutrition security, ii) the effects on the bioeconomy, and iii) the implications for the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Simulation results show that an export stop of agri-food commodities in Ukraine and Russia results in a substantial increase in global agri-food prices under short-term assumptions. However, the longer-term effects are much smaller due to global supply responses. The effects on food security depend on the importance of cereals in countries’ diets. Furthermore, due to subsequent Gross Domestic Product declines, there may be further negative long-term implications for food security, especially in Africa. An additional scenario with a 10% increase in the global oil price shows that European Union (EU) biofuel production is heavily affected. The implementation of the initially envisaged CAP requirement of a set-aside of 4% of the farmed area would have little effect on EU cereal production, whereas a 10% reduction in fertiliser availability in the EU would lead to a decline in net production of cereals. A joint reduction in pig herd size and pork consumption could partly mitigate the negative consequences of reduced fertiliser availability, otherwise leakage would occur either through the import of pork into the EU for consumption or the production of EU pork meat for export markets. To mitigate the market effects of the war, EU policymakers should: i) encourage efficient (animal) nutrient use to offset fertiliser shortages and land use choices that increase market availability of food crops, ii) encourage restructuring of animal production in line with consumption developments to prevent leakage effects and ensure that non-food products are used efficiently as feed products, and iii) support vulnerable households to secure short-term food access.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75331310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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