Many empirical studies have found Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) superior in depicting risk behavior compared to the expected utility approach and literature now offers also CPT related parameter estimates for European farmers. CPT combines two segments of utility functions, a convex, risk loving one for losses and a concave, risk averse one for gains, and assigns subjective weights to the pay-offs according to their cumulative probabilities. So far, no implementation of CPT into constrained optimization problems exists, allowing for instance, the simulation of risk management under CPT in farm-scale programming models. To close this gap, we propose to combine endogenous sorting of the pay-offs based on integer variables with a piece-wise linear approximation of the value function using SOS2 (Special Ordered Sets of Type 2) variables. The SOS2 variables are required to deal with the convexity of the loss segment of the utility function. The integer sorting assigns the weights to the pay-offs according to their cumulative probabilities, it requires that all pay-offs are equally likely. Simulating optimal uptake levels of variants of a hypothetical crop insurance product with an evolved bio-economic model at farm-scale serves a proof of concept. The model considers adjustments in the cropping plan and allows for partial insurance coverage, in opposite to existing studies which evaluate the uptake of crop insurance at fixed crop choices and depict coverage as a yes-no decision. The approximation error of the approach is found as negligible small and the numerical burden compared to optimization under risk neutrality as still acceptable. The proposed approximation approach is quite general and applicable for any utility function increasing in the pay-off value and does not require its differentiability. It can also be applied without probability weighting. The empirical application underlines that the approach generates the expected behavior when a risk reducing strategy, here crop insurance, is considered under CPT. Insured acreage generally increases with higher strike levels where more frequently occurring but lower crop damages are covered, and with reduced cost of the insurance products. Using crop insurance as a risk management strategy is found to interact with other measures such as adjustments in cropping shares. This underlines the usefulness of an approach which allows to optimize interacting risk management strategies at farm-scale under CPT, considering resource and other relevant constraints.
{"title":"Implementing an Approximation of Cumulative Prospect Theory into Mixed Linear Programming – an Application to Bio-Economic Modelling at Farm-Scale Considering Crop Insurance","authors":"W. Britz","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2022.0244","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2022.0244","url":null,"abstract":"Many empirical studies have found Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) superior in depicting risk behavior compared to the expected utility approach and literature now offers also CPT related parameter estimates for European farmers. CPT combines two segments of utility functions, a convex, risk loving one for losses and a concave, risk averse one for gains, and assigns subjective weights to the pay-offs according to their cumulative probabilities. So far, no implementation of CPT into constrained optimization problems exists, allowing for instance, the simulation of risk management under CPT in farm-scale programming models. To close this gap, we propose to combine endogenous sorting of the pay-offs based on integer variables with a piece-wise linear approximation of the value function using SOS2 (Special Ordered Sets of Type 2) variables. The SOS2 variables are required to deal with the convexity of the loss segment of the utility function. The integer sorting assigns the weights to the pay-offs according to their cumulative probabilities, it requires that all pay-offs are equally likely. Simulating optimal uptake levels of variants of a hypothetical crop insurance product with an evolved bio-economic model at farm-scale serves a proof of concept. The model considers adjustments in the cropping plan and allows for partial insurance coverage, in opposite to existing studies which evaluate the uptake of crop insurance at fixed crop choices and depict coverage as a yes-no decision. The approximation error of the approach is found as negligible small and the numerical burden compared to optimization under risk neutrality as still acceptable. The proposed approximation approach is quite general and applicable for any utility function increasing in the pay-off value and does not require its differentiability. It can also be applied without probability weighting. The empirical application underlines that the approach generates the expected behavior when a risk reducing strategy, here crop insurance, is considered under CPT. Insured acreage generally increases with higher strike levels where more frequently occurring but lower crop damages are covered, and with reduced cost of the insurance products. Using crop insurance as a risk management strategy is found to interact with other measures such as adjustments in cropping shares. This underlines the usefulness of an approach which allows to optimize interacting risk management strategies at farm-scale under CPT, considering resource and other relevant constraints.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90270936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-22DOI: 10.30430/gjae.2022.3.intro
M. Odening, S. Hüttel
{"title":"The Russia-Ukraine Conflict – Implications for Farms and Agricultural Markets: Introduction to the Special Issue","authors":"M. Odening, S. Hüttel","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2022.3.intro","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2022.3.intro","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76769363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Ellßel, Friedrich Wüstemann, F. Offermann, Thomas de Witte
The war in Ukraine has led to massive price increases for agricultural inputs and products. This paper examines the effects on farm profitability and the consequences for the adoption of eco-schemes on arable farms. We use the large farm sample of the German Farm Accounting Data Network (FADN) to identify the average income effects and to highlight the heterogeneity of the effects and their drivers. Building on these results, we analyse farms’ adaptation strategies with a focus on changes in nitrogen input intensity and participation in environmental measures (“eco-schemes”) of the new Common Agriculture Policy (CAP). Our results suggest that income effects are heterogeneous and subject to considerable uncertainty about the near future, and that many farms are likely to benefit from the short-term price effects of the war in Ukraine. Against this background, the efficiency of financial assistance under the EU crisis reserve would have benefited from a stronger focus on liquidity loans and ex-post hardship support. Our analysis also shows strong implications for participation in eco-schemes. The results cast significant doubts on the effectiveness and efficiency of the eco-schemes introduced by the new CAP, beyond the observed impact of the war in Ukraine.
{"title":"Impact of the War in Ukraine on Farm Profitability and the Attractiveness of Environmental Measures in Germany","authors":"R. Ellßel, Friedrich Wüstemann, F. Offermann, Thomas de Witte","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2022.0300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2022.0300","url":null,"abstract":"The war in Ukraine has led to massive price increases for agricultural inputs and products. This paper examines the effects on farm profitability and the consequences for the adoption of eco-schemes on arable farms. We use the large farm sample of the German Farm Accounting Data Network (FADN) to identify the average income effects and to highlight the heterogeneity of the effects and their drivers. Building on these results, we analyse farms’ adaptation strategies with a focus on changes in nitrogen input intensity and participation in environmental measures (“eco-schemes”) of the new Common Agriculture Policy (CAP). Our results suggest that income effects are heterogeneous and subject to considerable uncertainty about the near future, and that many farms are likely to benefit from the short-term price effects of the war in Ukraine. Against this background, the efficiency of financial assistance under the EU crisis reserve would have benefited from a stronger focus on liquidity loans and ex-post hardship support. Our analysis also shows strong implications for participation in eco-schemes. The results cast significant doubts on the effectiveness and efficiency of the eco-schemes introduced by the new CAP, beyond the observed impact of the war in Ukraine.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"81 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83593831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Over the past decades, Ukraine has built an increasingly dynamic agricultural sector, characterized by growing export engagement in various commodities. Whether the country can quickly regain its status of a key player on the world agri-food markets amid and after Russian invasion is extremely important for international food security. However, the to-date understanding of the recovery potential remains elusive due to the lack of systematic and objective insights into the major drivers of recent growth. Scarce evidence suggests that Ukraine’s agriculture has been successfully modernized mainly due to the efforts of private sector actors operating in the context of generally inconsequent policies typical of a transition country. The following factors have been reported to contribute to recent modernization and development of the sector: a) improvement of efficiency and productivity, especially in crop production; b) structural change involving a rapid development of large-scale agroholdings; and c) relatively positive public acceptance of modern technologies and organizational forms of agricultural production. The present paper reviews these trends in greater detail by addressing the role of professional farm management, digital technologies, ongoing optimization of the size of production operations (including horizontal and vertical integration through merger and acquisitions) as well as farm engagement in sustainability and legitimation activities as the main enterprise-level drivers of growth and resilience in Ukrainian agriculture.
{"title":"Why did Ukraine become a Key Player on the World Agri-Food Markets? An Enterprise-Level Perspective","authors":"T. Gagalyuk, I. Ostapchuk, V. Lapa, A. Balmann","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2022.0302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2022.0302","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past decades, Ukraine has built an increasingly dynamic agricultural sector, characterized by growing export engagement in various commodities. Whether the country can quickly regain its status of a key player on the world agri-food markets amid and after Russian invasion is extremely important for international food security. However, the to-date understanding of the recovery potential remains elusive due to the lack of systematic and objective insights into the major drivers of recent growth. Scarce evidence suggests that Ukraine’s agriculture has been successfully modernized mainly due to the efforts of private sector actors operating in the context of generally inconsequent policies typical of a transition country. The following factors have been reported to contribute to recent modernization and development of the sector: a) improvement of efficiency and productivity, especially in crop production; b) structural change involving a rapid development of large-scale agroholdings; and c) relatively positive public acceptance of modern technologies and organizational forms of agricultural production. The present paper reviews these trends in greater detail by addressing the role of professional farm management, digital technologies, ongoing optimization of the size of production operations (including horizontal and vertical integration through merger and acquisitions) as well as farm engagement in sustainability and legitimation activities as the main enterprise-level drivers of growth and resilience in Ukrainian agriculture.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78910573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a popular tool to determine technical efficiency of agricultural production. One issue that arises in some nonparametric frameworks is the heterogenous endowment with determinate factors, such as agroclimatic conditions. Environmental factors clearly lie outside of the sphere of influence of the decision-maker and pose natural limits to increasing efficiency and productivity of agricultural production. Calls for rationalization or better allocation of production inputs might thus not be adequate if concerned studies do not properly account for exogeneous factors of efficiency. The presented paper addresses the existing attempts to deal with the issue and analyzes the effect of soil quality on technical efficiency, calculated for crop producers of 122 European regions (FADN), using a regularly employed two-stage DEA framework. The effect of soil quality is then accounted for by adjusting the input factor land by a land quality factor. First, results show that environmental factors, e.g., soil quality, have a significant positive effect on technical efficiency. Further, the proposed land adjustment reveals structurally different results for some individual efficiency estimates, which indicates that neglecting the effect of environmental factors on efficiency might yield misleading policy implications.
{"title":"Considering Environmental Factors in Technical Efficiency Analysis of European Crop Production","authors":"Alexander Kaiser, A. Schaffer","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2022.0222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2022.0222","url":null,"abstract":"Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a popular tool to determine technical efficiency of agricultural production. One issue that arises in some nonparametric frameworks is the heterogenous endowment with determinate factors, such as agroclimatic conditions. Environmental factors clearly lie outside of the sphere of influence of the decision-maker and pose natural limits to increasing efficiency and productivity of agricultural production. Calls for rationalization or better allocation of production inputs might thus not be adequate if concerned studies do not properly account for exogeneous factors of efficiency. The presented paper addresses the existing attempts to deal with the issue and analyzes the effect of soil quality on technical efficiency, calculated for crop producers of 122 European regions (FADN), using a regularly employed two-stage DEA framework. The effect of soil quality is then accounted for by adjusting the input factor land by a land quality factor. First, results show that environmental factors, e.g., soil quality, have a significant positive effect on technical efficiency. Further, the proposed land adjustment reveals structurally different results for some individual efficiency estimates, which indicates that neglecting the effect of environmental factors on efficiency might yield misleading policy implications.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85221386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Meat consumption has become increasingly relevant within the greater scientific, political, and public debate due to the variety of negative effects that it has on the environment, human health, and animal welfare. In Germany, the statistical basis for “direct consumption” entails uncertainties and is based on parameters dating back to 1987. The following study deals with an updated and revised estimate of the per capita consumption of pork, beef, and poultry in Germany, focusing on the supply-side. Unlike the original approach, the estimate is based on a mass flow analysis. It includes a survey at the slaughterhouse level, adjustments to external trade statistics, and assumptions on loss and waste at five different value chain stages. An average total per capita meat consumption of 65 kg is calculated for the year 2018. Thus, meat consumption has been underestimated by 4 kg per capita based on official statistics by overestimating waste, losses, and non-food uses. Our results provide information regarding per capita and total meat consumption, enable future projections, and give an overview of the use of meat outside the food chain. The approach used is discussed against the background of international comparability and applicability. In this way the study provides important indications for political decision-makers and contributes to more objectivity in the public debate on meat consumption.
{"title":"How much Meat do we eat? Estimating per Capita Meat Consumption in Germany based on a Market Balance Approach","authors":"Annika J. Thies, J. Efken, M. Sönnichsen","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2022.0182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2022.0182","url":null,"abstract":"Meat consumption has become increasingly relevant within the greater scientific, political, and public debate due to the variety of negative effects that it has on the environment, human health, and animal welfare. In Germany, the statistical basis for “direct consumption” entails uncertainties and is based on parameters dating back to 1987. The following study deals with an updated and revised estimate of the per capita consumption of pork, beef, and poultry in Germany, focusing on the supply-side. Unlike the original approach, the estimate is based on a mass flow analysis. It includes a survey at the slaughterhouse level, adjustments to external trade statistics, and assumptions on loss and waste at five different value chain stages. An average total per capita meat consumption of 65 kg is calculated for the year 2018. Thus, meat consumption has been underestimated by 4 kg per capita based on official statistics by overestimating waste, losses, and non-food uses. Our results provide information regarding per capita and total meat consumption, enable future projections, and give an overview of the use of meat outside the food chain. The approach used is discussed against the background of international comparability and applicability. In this way the study provides important indications for political decision-makers and contributes to more objectivity in the public debate on meat consumption.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77449874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper evaluates the occurrence and determinants of unfair trading practices (UTPs) in the fruit supply chain in Slovakia. Based on a representative survey of fruit growers, mainly apple growers, the study concludes that 79% of the producers experienced at least 1 UTP in a relationship with their main buyer. The most frequent UTPs are late payments (39.6%), payments unrelated to a specific transaction (39.6%), and unilateral changes by buyers in contracts and orders. The results of the probit model show that producer organisations decrease the probability of UTPs relative to conditions in which the main buyer is a private trader (by 32%) or supermarket (by 35%). This result provides some justification for the support of producer organisations under the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union.
{"title":"Unfair Trading Practices: Evidence in the Fruit Supply Chain","authors":"Katarína Baráthová, J. Pokrivčák, M. Rajcaniova","doi":"10.30430/gjae.2022.0172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/gjae.2022.0172","url":null,"abstract":"This paper evaluates the occurrence and determinants of unfair trading practices (UTPs) in the fruit supply chain in Slovakia. Based on a representative survey of fruit growers, mainly apple growers, the study concludes that 79% of the producers experienced at least 1 UTP in a relationship with their main buyer. The most frequent UTPs are late payments (39.6%), payments unrelated to a specific transaction (39.6%), and unilateral changes by buyers in contracts and orders. The results of the probit model show that producer organisations decrease the probability of UTPs relative to conditions in which the main buyer is a private trader (by 32%) or supermarket (by 35%). This result provides some justification for the support of producer organisations under the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81152312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-19DOI: 10.30430/71.2022.5.bioenergie
Sören Mohrmann, S. Schukat, C. Schaper
Der diesjährige Marktbericht Bioenergie gibt einen Überblick über aktuelle klima- und energiepolitische Themen mit einem Schwerpunkt auf Deutschland. Nach einem starken Rückgang des Weltwirtschaftswachstums und damit des weltweiten Energieverbrauchs im Jahr 2020 in Folge der COVID-19-Pandemie, war das Jahr 2021 durch eine leichte Konjunkturerholung gekennzeichnet, die sich wiederum auf die internationalen Energiemärkte ausgewirkt hat. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden zu Beginn des Berichtes energiepolitisch relevante Ereignisse im Jahr 2021 zusammengefasst, ehe die erneuerbaren Energien in den deutschen und internationalen Energiemix eingeordnet werden. Daran anschließend wird auf die land- und forstwirtschaftliche Produktion von Biomasse für die energetische Verwertung sowie die energetische Nutzung von biogenen Rest- und Abfallstoffen eingegangen. Des Weiteren werden aktuelle Entwicklungen an den Biokraftstoffmärkten sowie die Entwicklung der Strom- und Wärmeerzeugung aus biogenen Festbrennstoffen und der Biogaserzeugung in Deutschland thematisiert. Zum Abschluss des Berichts werden Agri-Photovoltaik-Anlagen als Chance für die Landwirtschaft und die Energiewende in Deutschland diskutiert. This year's Bioenergy Market Report provides an overview of current climate and energy policy issues with a focus on Germany. After a sharp decline in the global economy and energy consumption in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 is characterized by a slight economic recovery, which has had a corresponding impact on the international energy markets. After outlining the events from 2021 that are relevant to energy policy, renewable energies are contextualized within the German and international energy mix. Along with a description of biomass production in agriculture and forestry, usage of biogenic residual and waste materials is also described. The section on the energetic use of biomass deals with current developments in German biogas production and biofuels markets, as well as electricity and heat generation from biogenic solid fuels. The report concludes with a chapter on agrophotovoltaics as an opportunity for agriculture and the energy transition in Germany.
{"title":"Der Markt für Bioenergie 2021/2022","authors":"Sören Mohrmann, S. Schukat, C. Schaper","doi":"10.30430/71.2022.5.bioenergie","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/71.2022.5.bioenergie","url":null,"abstract":"Der diesjährige Marktbericht Bioenergie gibt einen Überblick über aktuelle klima- und energiepolitische Themen mit einem Schwerpunkt auf Deutschland. Nach einem starken Rückgang des Weltwirtschaftswachstums und damit des weltweiten Energieverbrauchs im Jahr 2020 in Folge der COVID-19-Pandemie, war das Jahr 2021 durch eine leichte Konjunkturerholung gekennzeichnet, die sich wiederum auf die internationalen Energiemärkte ausgewirkt hat. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden zu Beginn des Berichtes energiepolitisch relevante Ereignisse im Jahr 2021 zusammengefasst, ehe die erneuerbaren Energien in den deutschen und internationalen Energiemix eingeordnet werden. Daran anschließend wird auf die land- und forstwirtschaftliche Produktion von Biomasse für die energetische Verwertung sowie die energetische Nutzung von biogenen Rest- und Abfallstoffen eingegangen. Des Weiteren werden aktuelle Entwicklungen an den Biokraftstoffmärkten sowie die Entwicklung der Strom- und Wärmeerzeugung aus biogenen Festbrennstoffen und der Biogaserzeugung in Deutschland thematisiert. Zum Abschluss des Berichts werden Agri-Photovoltaik-Anlagen als Chance für die Landwirtschaft und die Energiewende in Deutschland diskutiert. This year's Bioenergy Market Report provides an overview of current climate and energy policy issues with a focus on Germany. After a sharp decline in the global economy and energy consumption in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 is characterized by a slight economic recovery, which has had a corresponding impact on the international energy markets. After outlining the events from 2021 that are relevant to energy policy, renewable energies are contextualized within the German and international energy mix. Along with a description of biomass production in agriculture and forestry, usage of biogenic residual and waste materials is also described. The section on the energetic use of biomass deals with current developments in German biogas production and biofuels markets, as well as electricity and heat generation from biogenic solid fuels. The report concludes with a chapter on agrophotovoltaics as an opportunity for agriculture and the energy transition in Germany.","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"69 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82641435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-14DOI: 10.30430/71.2022.5.fleisch
J. Efken, Jakob Meemken, I. Christoph-Schulz
The year 2021 shows a division between the development of the different global meat markets. Fueled by the Chinese market there was a strong demand for beef in particular coupled with a limited supply which results in strongly increased prices for beef and beef products. The same occurred on the meat markets of mutton and goat. On the contrary, there was a steady demand for pork but also a big increase in pork production, again driven by the expansion in China. As Chinese importers began to shorten their orders, prices of pork went down in the second half of 2021. Regarding the poultry markets there is a more balanced development of supply and demand. The EU-27 pork and poultry meat production increased a bit in 2021 compared to 2020 while beef production shrunk slightly. There are strong differences between the member states. In particular Spain, Poland, Ireland and the Netherlands realized a remarkable expansion of meat production. In sum, EU consumption is stagnating. The German pork market faces extraordinary challenges. Weak demand for pork in the last few years is coupled with continuous discussion about pig farming and working conditions in slaughterhouses and the meat industry. The Corona pandemic and adding to that the outbreak of African Swine Fever in September 2020 led to serious marketing problems and a downward trend for pig and pork prices. Contrary to that, cattle and beef markets achieve – as on the international markets - huge price increases. The domestic production did not respond with production expansion for now because the milk market causes the rather continuous decline of beef production and changes in production have a long time-delay. The German poultry market is expansive both in production and consumption. The actual situation and short-term development of the market of meat alternatives shows a still relatively young and less established market with marginal market shares in the different product markets. Die Entwicklung der verschiedenen globalen Fleischmärkte im Jahr 2021 ist zweigeteilt. Es gab eine starke Nachfrage nach Rindfleisch, insbesondere angeheizt durch den chinesischen Markt und ein begrenztes Angebot, was zu stark gestiegenen Preisen für Rindfleisch und Rindfleischprodukte führte. Das Gleiche gilt für die Märkte für Schaf- und Ziegenfleisch. Im Gegensatz dazu gab es eine gleichbleibende Nachfrage nach Schweinefleisch, aber einen starken Anstieg der Schweinefleischproduktion, wiederum angetrieben durch die enorme Ausdehnung in China. Zurückhalten-de Bestellungen chinesischer Importeure führten dann zu sinkenden Preisen für Schweinefleisch in der zwei-ten Hälfte des Jahres 2021. Auf den Geflügelmärkten ist eine ausgewogenere Entwicklung von Angebot und Nachfrage zu beobachten. Die Schweine- und Geflügelfleischerzeugung der EU-27 ist 2021 im Vergleich zu 2020 etwas gestiegen, während die Rindfleischpro-duktion leicht zurückgegangen ist. Es gibt starke Un-terschiede zwischen den Mitgliedsstaaten. Insbesonde
2021年，全球不同肉类市场的发展出现了分化。在中国市场的推动下，对牛肉的需求尤其强劲，加上供应有限，导致牛肉和牛肉产品的价格大幅上涨。羊肉和山羊肉市场也出现了同样的情况。相反，猪肉需求稳定，但猪肉产量也大幅增加，这再次受到中国扩张的推动。随着中国进口商开始缩短订单，猪肉价格在2021年下半年有所下降。在家禽市场方面，供需发展更加平衡。与2020年相比，2021年欧盟27国的猪肉和禽肉产量略有增加，而牛肉产量略有下降。成员国之间存在着很大的分歧。特别是西班牙、波兰、爱尔兰和荷兰实现了肉类生产的显著扩张。总而言之，欧盟的消费正在停滞。德国猪肉市场面临着非同寻常的挑战。过去几年对猪肉的需求疲软，加上有关养猪和屠宰场及肉类行业工作条件的持续讨论。冠状病毒大流行以及2020年9月爆发的非洲猪瘟导致了严重的营销问题以及猪和猪肉价格的下降趋势。与此相反，与国际市场一样，牛和牛肉市场实现了价格的大幅上涨。由于牛奶市场导致牛肉生产持续下降，而且生产变化具有较长的时滞，因此国内生产暂时没有扩大生产。德国家禽市场在生产和消费方面都很广阔。肉类替代品市场的实际情况和短期发展表明，在不同的产品市场上，肉类替代品仍然是一个相对年轻、不太成熟的市场，市场份额很小。[2][1][1][1][1][1][1]。他说:“我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说，我的意思是说。Das Gleiche gilt f r die Märkte f r Schaf- und Ziegenfleisch。在中国，我们将为您提供优质的产品和服务，为您提供优质的产品和服务。苏黎世最好的中国进口企业在德国的发展与发展在德国的发展与发展Hälfte des Jahres 2021。Auf den Geflügelmärkten ist eine ausgewogenere Entwicklung von Angebot and Nachfrage zu beobachten。Die Schweine- und geflelfleischerzeugung der EU-27 ist 2021 im Vergleich zu 2020 etwas gestiegen, während Die Rindfleischpro-duktion leicht zurgegangen ist。他的名字叫unterschiede zwischen den Mitgliedsstaaten。西班牙人、波兰人、爱尔兰人、荷兰人、德国人、德国人、德国人、德国人、德国人、德国人。Insgesamt stagniert der eu - ver - bruch。Der deutsche schweinefleischmarket steht vor sonderen Herausforderungen。德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国德国死亡冠状病毒大流行与zusätzlich der Ausbruch der afrikkanischen Schweine-pest in September 2020 fhten zu gravierenden vermarktungsproblemen and einem Abwärtstrend der Schweine- und Schweinefleischpreise。我是Gegensatz dazu erzielt der Rinder和rindfleischmarket - wie aufden internationen Märkten - enorme Preissteige-rungen。Die heimische production(生产)，即生产，即生产，即生产，即生产，即生产，即生产，即生产，即生产，即生产，即生产。Der deutsche geflgelmarket ist sowohl in Der production(生产)也被称为Verbrauch expsiv(扩张)。市场经济形势与市场经济发展的关系(英文):1 .市场经济与市场经济的关系(英文):1 .市场经济与市场经济的关系(英文):1 .市场经济与市场经济的关系(英文):Produktmärkten。
{"title":"Der Markt für Fleisch und Fleischprodukte 2021/2022","authors":"J. Efken, Jakob Meemken, I. Christoph-Schulz","doi":"10.30430/71.2022.5.fleisch","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/71.2022.5.fleisch","url":null,"abstract":"The year 2021 shows a division between the development of the different global meat markets. Fueled by the Chinese market there was a strong demand for beef in particular coupled with a limited supply which results in strongly increased prices for beef and beef products. The same occurred on the meat markets of mutton and goat. On the contrary, there was a steady demand for pork but also a big increase in pork production, again driven by the expansion in China. As Chinese importers began to shorten their orders, prices of pork went down in the second half of 2021. Regarding the poultry markets there is a more balanced development of supply and demand. The EU-27 pork and poultry meat production increased a bit in 2021 compared to 2020 while beef production shrunk slightly. There are strong differences between the member states. In particular Spain, Poland, Ireland and the Netherlands realized a remarkable expansion of meat production. In sum, EU consumption is stagnating. The German pork market faces extraordinary challenges. Weak demand for pork in the last few years is coupled with continuous discussion about pig farming and working conditions in slaughterhouses and the meat industry. The Corona pandemic and adding to that the outbreak of African Swine Fever in September 2020 led to serious marketing problems and a downward trend for pig and pork prices. Contrary to that, cattle and beef markets achieve – as on the international markets - huge price increases. The domestic production did not respond with production expansion for now because the milk market causes the rather continuous decline of beef production and changes in production have a long time-delay. The German poultry market is expansive both in production and consumption. The actual situation and short-term development of the market of meat alternatives shows a still relatively young and less established market with marginal market shares in the different product markets. Die Entwicklung der verschiedenen globalen Fleischmärkte im Jahr 2021 ist zweigeteilt. Es gab eine starke Nachfrage nach Rindfleisch, insbesondere angeheizt durch den chinesischen Markt und ein begrenztes Angebot, was zu stark gestiegenen Preisen für Rindfleisch und Rindfleischprodukte führte. Das Gleiche gilt für die Märkte für Schaf- und Ziegenfleisch. Im Gegensatz dazu gab es eine gleichbleibende Nachfrage nach Schweinefleisch, aber einen starken Anstieg der Schweinefleischproduktion, wiederum angetrieben durch die enorme Ausdehnung in China. Zurückhalten-de Bestellungen chinesischer Importeure führten dann zu sinkenden Preisen für Schweinefleisch in der zwei-ten Hälfte des Jahres 2021. Auf den Geflügelmärkten ist eine ausgewogenere Entwicklung von Angebot und Nachfrage zu beobachten. Die Schweine- und Geflügelfleischerzeugung der EU-27 ist 2021 im Vergleich zu 2020 etwas gestiegen, während die Rindfleischpro-duktion leicht zurückgegangen ist. Es gibt starke Un-terschiede zwischen den Mitgliedsstaaten. Insbesonde","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"41 2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83142020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-11DOI: 10.30430/71.2022.5.milch
G. Busch, Tim Knöpfel, A. Spiller, Bernhard Brümmer, Clara Mehlhose
{"title":"Der Markt für Milch und Milcherzeugnisse 2021","authors":"G. Busch, Tim Knöpfel, A. Spiller, Bernhard Brümmer, Clara Mehlhose","doi":"10.30430/71.2022.5.milch","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30430/71.2022.5.milch","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48919,"journal":{"name":"German Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"143 3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77239791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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