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Reason of less water supply shortages under climate change condition: evaluation of future rainfall data 气候变化条件下供水短缺减少的原因:对未来降雨数据的评估
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.469
Jeong-Hyeok Ma, Chulsang Yoo, Wooyoung Na, Jong-Sup Lee
Abstract This study evaluates the appropriateness of general circulation model-based future rainfall data used in Korea. The evaluation is done through the analysis of long-term occurrence characteristics of dry years, as well as the analysis of the water supply system including the daily based rainfall-runoff analysis and reservoir operation. This study considers the Boryeong Dam basin in Korea as a study basin. Summarizing the results is as follows. First, the future rainfall data show that the occurrence frequency of dry years is similar to the observed, but the occurrence frequency of consecutive multi-year dry years is far smaller than the observed. Second, the future rainfall data result in no or far less water supply shortages. This is mainly due to the fact that the Boryeong Dam has the ability to overcome the one-year drought and the future rainfall data contain far fewer multi-year droughts. However, these results clearly indicate the problems of the future rainfall data, especially in the long-term persistence of rainfall. It is thus disappointing that these future climate rainfall data may not be used to evaluate the water supply system in the future, at least in the Boryeong Dam basin.
摘要本研究评估了韩国使用的基于环流模式的未来降水数据的适用性。通过对干旱年长期发生特征的分析,以及对供水系统的分析,包括基于日的降雨径流分析和水库运行进行评价。本次研究以韩国保宁坝流域为研究对象。结果总结如下。①未来降水资料显示,干旱年的发生频率与观测值相近,但连续多年干旱年的发生频率远小于观测值。其次,未来的降雨数据不会导致供水短缺,甚至会大大减少。这主要是因为保宁大坝有能力克服一年的干旱,而且未来的降雨数据中包含的多年干旱要少得多。然而,这些结果清楚地表明了未来降雨数据的问题,特别是在降雨的长期持续性方面。因此,令人失望的是,这些未来的气候降雨数据可能无法用于评估未来的供水系统,至少在保宁河流域。
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引用次数: 0
Carbon footprint values as a climate change assessment criterion of the partial harvests of European seabass and meagre in earthen pond aquaculture 碳足迹值作为欧洲鲈鱼部分收获和土池养殖贫乏的气候变化评价标准
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.344
Gürkan Diken, Ergi Bahrioğlu
Abstract Turkey's Mediterranean aquaculture industry is the world leader in European seabass aquaculture and the European leader in meagre aquaculture. In this study, carbon footprint (CF) values of four partial harvests of European seabass in earthen pond aquaculture (EPES) and meagre in earthen pond aquaculture (EPM) were determined. The average values of total CF expended for EPES and EPM, which reached a final harvest weight of approximately 1,500 g in 1,061 and 633 days were 3.38 and 2.26 kg CO2e kg−1, respectively. The lowest and highest rates of CF expended on consumed compound diet (CFCD) were 63.92 and 65.59% in EPES, and 62.44 and 66.70% in EPM, respectively. The rates of CF general management were 32.0 and 33.57% in EPES and 30.98 and 34.98% in EPM, respectively. Against this high proportion of the compound diet, the second highest value was the lowest and highest proportion of partial harvests of electricity, 28.20 and 29.59% in EPES and 27.09 and 30.51% in EPM, respectively. CF input and CF output per kg values of meagre were decreased with increasing weight, therefore meagre can be defined as a species with high global food security and resilience against climate change.
土耳其的地中海水产养殖业是欧洲海鲈鱼养殖的世界领导者,也是欧洲贫水产养殖的领导者。本研究测定了四种泥塘养殖欧洲鲈鱼的部分收获量和贫乏收获量的碳足迹(CF)值。在1061天和633天内达到最终收获重约1500 g的EPES和EPM的总CF消耗平均值分别为3.38和2.26 kg CO2e kg - 1。饲粮中CF消耗率最高、最低的分别是EPES的63.92%和65.59%,EPM的62.44%和66.70%。EPES和EPM的CF综合管理率分别为32.0和33.57%和30.98和34.98%。与这一高比例的配合饲粮相比,第二高的是部分采电比例最低和最高,EPES为28.20和29.59%,EPM为27.09和30.51%。每千克肥的CF投入和CF产出值随着体重的增加而减少,因此可以将贫定义为具有高全球粮食安全和抵御气候变化能力的物种。
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引用次数: 0
Weather system classification and water vapor transport characteristics of extreme value rainstorm in northwestern Hunan 湘西北极端值暴雨天气系统分类及水汽输送特征
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.075
Enrong Zhao, Qian Yao, Xiaolong Pan, Rong Yao, Hongzhuan Chen, Tao Su
Abstract Using meteorological analysis, composite analysis and water vapor trajectory analysis, the extreme value rainstorm process in northwest Hunan was analyzed. The results show that three types are summarized: the Southwest Vortex and Warm Shear Line Pattern (SVWSLP), the Subtropical High Edge Pattern (SHEP) and the Cold Trough and Shear Line Pattern (CTSLP). The main influence systems are upper trough, southwest vortex, shear line, low-level jet and subtropical high edge. For SVWSLP, the water vapor transport channels are only from the low-latitude ocean whether it is affected by long-distance typhoons. For SHEP, the main water vapor channel comes from the long-distance ocean and is finally transported to northwestern Hunan around 650 hPa in the form of warm and wet airflow, whether it is affected by long-distance typhoons. The CTSLP appears a significant water vapor confrontation between the north and the south and the baroclinicity of the atmosphere in the rainstorm area. The southern and western boundaries are the input boundary, while the eastern and northern boundaries are the outflow boundary. Therefore, one of the three types of weather systems appears in northwestern Hunan in May–August, with strong water vapor transport from the ocean surface, which is likely to cause extreme rainstorm.
摘要采用气象分析、综合分析和水汽轨迹分析等方法,对湘西北地区极端暴雨过程进行了分析。结果表明:西南涡旋-暖切变线型(SVWSLP)、副热带高压边缘型(SHEP)和冷槽-切变线型(CTSLP)可归纳为三种类型。主要影响系统为高空槽、西南涡、切变线、低空急流和副热带高压边缘。对于SVWSLP而言,无论是否受到远距离台风的影响,水汽输送通道都仅来自低纬度海洋。对于SHEP来说,无论是否受到远距离台风的影响,其主要水汽通道来自远距离海洋,最终在650 hPa左右以暖湿气流的形式输送到湘西北。CTSLP在暴雨区表现出明显的南北水汽对抗和大气的斜压性。南部和西部边界为输入边界,东部和北部边界为流出边界。因此,湘西北地区在5 - 8月出现了三种天气系统中的一种,海面水汽输送较强,有可能引发极端暴雨。
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引用次数: 1
Predicting rainfall response to climate change and uncertainty analysis: introducing a novel downscaling CMIP6 models technique based on the stacking ensemble machine learning 降雨对气候变化的响应预测及不确定性分析——基于叠加集成机器学习的降尺度CMIP6模型技术
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.477
Mahdi Valikhan Anaraki, Mojtaba Kadkhodazadeh, Amirreza Morshed-Bozorgdel, Saeed Farzin
Abstract This study proposes a novel downscaling technique based on stacking ensemble machine learning (SEML) to predict rainfall under climate change. The SEML consists of two levels. Rainfall time series predicted by level 1 algorithms MLR, MNLR, MARS, M5, RF, LSBoost, LSSVM-GS, and a novel hybrid algorithm namely LSSVM-RUN) are used as inputs to the level 2 machine learning algorithm (MARS and LSSVM_RUN). Then, meta-algorithms of SEML predict rainfall based on eight predicted rainfall in level 1. This approach boosts prediction accuracy by utilizing the strong points of different machine learning (ML) algorithms. Results showed that MARS and LSSVM-RUN could be employed to improve the modeling results as meta-algorithms (level 2 of the SEML). Three global climate models (GCMs) in the historical period (1985–2014) and three SSP scenarios in the future period (2021–2050) were considered for downscaling and predicting rainfall at Lake Urmia and Sefidrood basins. Using meta-algorithms, the prediction results showed that rainfall in all scenarios and stations decreased between 0.02 and 0.20% (except Takab station in model CanESM5 scenarios). Hence, the proposed stacking ensemble ML has the potential for modeling and predicting precipitation with good accuracy and high reliability.
摘要提出了一种基于叠加集成机器学习(SEML)的降尺度预测技术,用于气候变化下的降雨预测。SEML由两个级别组成。使用由一级算法MLR、MNLR、MARS、M5、RF、LSBoost、LSSVM-GS和一种新型混合算法LSSVM-RUN预测的降雨时间序列作为二级机器学习算法(MARS和LSSVM_RUN)的输入。然后,SEML的元算法基于8个1级降雨预测进行降雨预测。这种方法通过利用不同机器学习(ML)算法的优点来提高预测的准确性。结果表明,MARS和LSSVM-RUN作为元算法(SEML的第2级)可以改善建模结果。考虑了历史时期(1985—2014年)的3种全球气候模式(GCMs)和未来时期(2021—2050年)的3种SSP情景,对乌尔米亚湖和塞菲德鲁德流域的降水进行了降尺度和预测。元算法预测结果表明,除CanESM5模式情景下的Takab站外,所有情景和站的降雨量均减少了0.02 ~ 0.20%。因此,所提出的叠加集成机器学习具有建模和预测降水的良好精度和高可靠性的潜力。
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引用次数: 2
Evaluation of statistical downscaling model's performance in projecting future climate change scenarios 评估统计降尺度模式在预测未来气候变化情景中的性能
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.207
Rituraj Shukla, Deepak Khare, Anuj Kumar Dwivedi, Ramesh Pal Rudra, Santosh S. Palmate, C. S. P. Ojha, Vijay P. Singh
Abstract Statistical downscaling (SD) is preferable to dynamic downscaling to derive local-scale climate change information from large-scale datasets. Many statistical downscaling models are available these days, but comparison of their performance is still inadequately addressed for choosing a reliable SD model. Thus, it is desirable to compare the performance of SD models to ensure their adaptability in future climate studies. In this study, a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) or multi-linear regression and the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) were used to do downscaling and compare the results with those obtained from general circulation model (GCM) for identifying the best SD model for the Indira Sagar Canal Command area located in Madhya Pradesh, India. The GCM, Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), was utilized to extract and downscale precipitation, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) for 1961–2001 and then for 2001–2099. Before future projections, both SD models were initially calibrated (1961–1990) and validated (1991–2001) to evaluate their performance for precipitation and temperature variables at all gauge stations, namely Barwani, East Nimar, and West Nimar. Results showed that the precipitation trend was under-predicted owing to large errors in downscaling, while temperature was over-predicted by SD models.
从大尺度数据集获取局地尺度气候变化信息时,统计降尺度(SD)优于动态降尺度。目前有许多统计缩尺模型可用,但它们的性能比较仍然不足以选择可靠的SD模型。因此,有必要对SD模型的性能进行比较,以确保其在未来气候研究中的适应性。本研究采用统计降尺度模型(SDSM)或多元线性回归和最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)进行降尺度,并与一般环流模型(GCM)的结果进行比较,以确定位于印度中邦的英迪拉萨加尔运河指挥区域的最佳SD模型。利用GCM, Hadley Centre耦合模式3 (HadCM3),分别提取了1961-2001年和2001-2099年的降水、最高温度(Tmax)和最低温度(Tmin),并对其进行了缩减。在未来预估之前,两个SD模式都进行了初步校准(1961-1990年)和验证(1991-2001年),以评估它们在所有气象站(即巴尔瓦尼、东尼马尔和西尼马尔)的降水和温度变量的表现。结果表明,由于降尺度误差较大,降水趋势预测不足,而温度预测过高。
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引用次数: 0
Framing a social network analysis approach to understanding reputational power in the water governance of Johor, Malaysia 构建社会网络分析方法来理解马来西亚柔佛州水治理中的声誉力
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.412
Wan Asiah Nurjannah Wan Ahmad Tajuddin, Zainura Zainon Noor, Choong Weng Wai, Azmi Aris, Mohsen Nagheeby, Zulfaqar Sa'adi, Jaime Amezaga, Nor Atikah Abdul Wahid
Abstract The challenge of collaborative water governance often lies in the complexity of the networks involved in its processes, particularly in understanding the location of power and how the reputational power can be executed for policy decisions. A case study of the state of Johor, Malaysia, was done with the goal of figuring out a method for mapping out reputational powers in the network of actors involved in the water governance of the state. To achieve this goal, this study deconstructs the different facets of the state’s water governance system by outlining the spatial, operational, and legal boundaries of various agencies. The fundamental issues identified through this step are the complexity that leads to fragmented water governance. A research framework is thus proposed, derived from a qualitative approach whereby through in-depth interviews, respondents are asked to rank the water-related agencies based on their perceived influence. These rankings derived from qualitative interviews are given weights and subsequently measured using parameters such as density and in-degree centrality to provide quantitative evidence of the reputational powers held by actors in the water governance network. The study supports the future use of the reputational power research framework to achieve collaborative water governance solutions.
协作水治理的挑战往往在于其过程中所涉及的网络的复杂性,特别是在理解权力的位置以及如何执行政策决策的声誉权力方面。以马来西亚柔佛州为例进行了研究,目的是找出一种方法,在参与该州水治理的行为者网络中绘制声誉权力。为了实现这一目标,本研究通过概述各个机构的空间、操作和法律边界,解构了国家水治理系统的不同方面。通过这一步骤确定的基本问题是导致水治理碎片化的复杂性。因此,提出了一个研究框架,该框架源于一种定性方法,即通过深入访谈,要求答复者根据其感知到的影响力对与水有关的机构进行排名。这些来自定性访谈的排名被赋予权重,随后使用密度和度中心性等参数进行测量,以提供水治理网络中行动者所拥有的声誉权力的定量证据。该研究支持未来使用声誉力研究框架来实现协作水治理解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Hydrological response of a headwater catchment in the semi-arid Andes (30°S) to climate change 半干旱安第斯山脉(30°S)水源集水区对气候变化的水文响应
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.268
Eduardo Yáñez San Francisco, Juan Antonio Pascual Aguilar, Shelley MacDonell
Abstract Globally, climate change has caused a significant reduction in snow cover in mountainous regions. To understand the impact of present and future snow changes on runoff in the semi-arid Andes, we applied the Hydro-BID hydrological model and associated datasets to the headwaters of the Elqui River basin (30°S) for current conditions and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Results show that model calibration at daily, monthly and annual time scales (R2 0.7, 0.7 and 0.8) and validation (R2 0.6, 0.7 and 0.7) were satisfactory. Future climate change scenario SSP2-4.5 indicates for 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 temperature increases of 1.2, 1.6 and 1.9 °C and precipitation reductions of 26%, 29% and 36%. Discharge for SSP2-4.5 will reduce (the average annual flow decreases by 54%, 58% and 66%). For the same periods, SSP5-8.5 projects temperature increases of 1.5, 2.6 and 3.7 °C and precipitation reductions of 28%, 39% and 44%. Compared with SSP2-4.5, river discharge will experience a more acute reduction (projected annual decrease of 57%, 70% and 77%). Model results indicate that the maximum flow will be reached three months earlier than today. Results reinforce the importance of snow for runoff in the semi-arid Andes and the applicability of Hydro-BID in mountainous regions.
在全球范围内,气候变化导致山区积雪显著减少。为了了解当前和未来积雪变化对半干旱安第斯山脉径流的影响,我们将Hydro-BID水文模型和相关数据集应用于Elqui河流域源头(30°S)的当前条件和两种共享社会经济路径(SSP)情景。结果表明,日、月、年时间尺度的模型校正(R2分别为0.7、0.7和0.8)和验证(R2分别为0.6、0.7和0.7)均令人满意。未来气候变化情景SSP2-4.5预测2040-2059年、2060-2079年和2080-2099年的气温上升1.2、1.6和1.9°C,降水减少26%、29%和36%。SSP2-4.5的排放量将减少(年平均流量减少54%,58%和66%)。SSP5-8.5预测同期气温升高1.5、2.6和3.7°C,降水减少28%、39%和44%。与SSP2-4.5相比,河流流量将经历更急剧的减少(预计年减少57%,70%和77%)。模型结果表明,最大流量将比今天提前3个月达到。结果表明,在半干旱的安第斯山脉地区,积雪对径流的重要性以及Hydro-BID在山区的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
Toward sustainable landscape irrigation using a novel design for water collection systems that use atmospheric moisture condensation 利用大气水分冷凝的新型集水系统设计实现可持续景观灌溉
IF 2.8 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-08 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.135
Zaid Aldeek
This paper introduces a novel design that uses high-emissivity materials with no hydrophobic surfaces to increase the speed of condensation and the dropping-off process in water collection systems from atmospheric moisture. The design incorporates simple and low-cost technology that takes advantage of advanced material properties to enable sustainable irrigation in regions characterized by water resource scarcity, generally favoring greening. The concept is based on the application of universal physics principles such as dew point, wetting and antiwetting, and material emissivity coefficients. The innovative collection system design and experimentation confirm the feasibility of collecting water from the air in various semi-arid regions with a low number of rainy days. The first novel aspect of the collection system design is the rapid increase in condensation and the use of materials with a high capacity to release collected water to address unwanted evaporation. The second novel feature is that the volume is reduced, and the system is flexible and inexpensive, allowing it to be distributed across a specific landscape. Reduced construction costs and ease of use demonstrate the real possibility of its use in developing and poor countries to first increase vegetation diffusion and then contribute to sustainable agriculture and green architecture.
本文介绍了一种新的设计,该设计使用了没有疏水表面的高发射率材料,以提高大气水分在水收集系统中的冷凝速度和滴落过程。该设计采用了简单、低成本的技术,利用先进的材料特性,在水资源短缺的地区实现可持续灌溉,通常有利于绿化。该概念基于普遍物理原理的应用,如露点、润湿和抗湿以及材料发射率系数。创新的收集系统设计和实验证实了在降雨天数较少的各个半干旱地区从空气中收集水的可行性。收集系统设计的第一个新颖方面是冷凝的快速增加和使用具有高容量的材料来释放收集的水以解决不必要的蒸发。第二个新颖的特点是体积减少,系统灵活且便宜,可以分布在特定的景观中。建筑成本的降低和易用性表明,在发展中国家和贫穷国家使用它确实有可能首先增加植被扩散,然后促进可持续农业和绿色建筑。
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引用次数: 0
The implications of food loss on East Africa's environment and water resources 粮食损失对东非环境和水资源的影响
IF 2.8 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.085
Edwin Kipkirui, J. Zhao, Tao Wang, Jean Pierre Bavumiragira, Joseph Cirily James, Yves Ndizeye
Food losses threaten food security and sustainability in East Africa, a region that faces recurrent droughts and socio-economic shocks. The research utilized the water footprint method and the carbon emission factor to quantify the water footprint and the carbon footprint of food losses of five plant-based food kinds: cereals, vegetables, oil crops, fruits, and pulses. The study focused on the actual food losses in East Africa – Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania – obtained from the enhanced food balance sheets in 2017. The study finds that the volume of the water wasted associated with the food losses (green + blue) was 6,164.1 million m3 (M.m3). Food loss also contributes to the degradation of the environment in the form of greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2 and CH4) and a source of non-point pollution of water resources. As a result, the greywater footprint was 838.1 M.m3 and carbon emissions were 5.53 million tons. In contrast to Kenya and Tanzania, Uganda had the lowest carbon and water footprint. These results can further clarify our understanding of the regional and global impacts of food losses on the environment and suggest that reducing food losses can help improve food security, conserve water resources, and protect the environment in East Africa.
粮食损失威胁到东非的粮食安全和可持续性,该地区经常面临干旱和社会经济冲击。该研究利用水足迹法和碳排放因子量化了五种植物性食品的水足迹和粮食损失的碳足迹:谷物、蔬菜、油料作物、水果和豆类。该研究重点关注东非——肯尼亚、乌干达和坦桑尼亚——从2017年的强化粮食资产负债表中获得的实际粮食损失。研究发现,与粮食损失(绿色+蓝色)相关的浪费水量为61.641亿立方米。粮食损失还以温室气体(如CO2和CH4)的形式导致环境退化,并成为水资源非点污染的来源。因此,灰水足迹为8.381亿立方米,碳排放量为553万吨。与肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚相比,乌干达的碳足迹和水足迹最低。这些结果可以进一步阐明我们对粮食损失对环境的区域和全球影响的理解,并表明减少粮食损失有助于改善东非的粮食安全、节约水资源和保护环境。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamics of greenhouse gas fluxes and soil physico-chemical properties in agricultural and forest soils 农林土壤中温室气体通量和土壤理化性质的动态
IF 2.8 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.338
Ashik Rubaiyat, Md. Lokman Hossain, Md. Humayain Kabir, Md Monzer Hossain Sarker, Mir Md Abdus Salam, Jianfeng Li
Examination of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes (CO2, CH4, and N2O) in soils is crucial for developing effective strategies to mitigate climate change. In this study, we investigated the GHG fluxes in agricultural and forest soils to explore the changes in soil GHG fluxes, and assess the relationships of GHGs with other physico-chemical properties. Results show that forest soils have a higher CO2 flux, while agricultural soils have a higher N2O flux due to fertilizer application and heterotrophic nitrification. Forest soils act as a CH4 sink, which are connected with increased porosity and decreased bulk density. In agricultural soils, CO2 and N2O were strongly linked with NH4+, soil temperature, pH, soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, plant-available phosphorous, and microbial biomass nitrogen (mbN) but were negatively connected with bulk density and microbial biomass carbon (mbC). In contrast to CO2 and N2O, CH4 in agricultural soils exhibited inverse relationships with all physico-chemical properties. In forest soils, CO2 and CH4 were positively correlated with soil temperature and mbC, and mbN and N2O were negatively correlated with bulk density and pH. This study highlights the critical need to comprehend the complex relationship between soil physico-chemical properties and GHG fluxes for effective climate change mitigation.
研究土壤中的温室气体(GHG)通量(CO2、CH4和N2O)对于制定有效的缓解气候变化战略至关重要。在本研究中,我们调查了农业和森林土壤中的温室气体通量,以探索土壤温室气体通量的变化,并评估温室气体与其他物理化学性质的关系。结果表明,由于施肥和异养硝化作用,森林土壤的CO2通量较高,而农业土壤的N2O通量较高。森林土壤充当CH4汇,这与孔隙度增加和体积密度降低有关。在农业土壤中,CO2和N2O与NH4+、土壤温度、pH、土壤有机碳、总氮、植物有效磷和微生物生物量氮(mbN)密切相关,但与容重和微生物生物质碳(mbC)呈负相关。与CO2和N2O相比,农业土壤中的CH4与所有物理化学性质呈反比。在森林土壤中,CO2和CH4与土壤温度和mbC呈正相关,而mbN和N2O与容重和pH呈负相关。这项研究强调,为了有效缓解气候变化,迫切需要理解土壤物理化学性质与GHG通量之间的复杂关系。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Water and Climate Change
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