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Spatio-temporal drought assessment and comparison of drought indices under climatic variations in drought-prone areas of Pakistan 巴基斯坦干旱易发地区气候变化下干旱时空评价及干旱指数比较
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-22 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.602
Muhammad Bilal Ahmad, Ali Muavia, Mudassar Iqbal, Abu Bakar Arshed, Muhammad Mansoor Ahmad
Abstract Climatic variations cause droughts which badly affect the environment. The study focused on monitoring droughts to aid decision-making and mitigate their negative impacts on water availability for agriculture and livelihoods in the face of increasing water demand and climate change. To assess the agricultural droughts, a new agricultural Standardized Precipitation Index (aSPI) was calculated which is not used earlier in Balochistan. Widely recommended Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used for meteorological drought assessment. Drought indices comparison was also conducted to check the applicability. Rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data (1992 to 2021) were utilized to calculate SPI, aSPI, and SPEI at different timescales (3, 6, 9, and 12 months) using DrinC software and SPEI calculator. Indices results revealed the following severe to extreme drought years: 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2016, and 2017. It was determined that Dalbandin, Quetta, Sibi, Kalat, Khuzdar, and Zhob experienced higher extreme drought frequencies. Both long- and short-term drought durations were observed. Indices comparison showed that SPI is the most efficient drought index compared to aSPI and SPEI. This study offers valuable insights for managing water resources in the face of climate-induced droughts.
气候变化导致干旱,严重影响环境。该研究的重点是监测干旱,以帮助决策,并在水资源需求增加和气候变化的情况下减轻干旱对农业和生计用水的负面影响。为了评估农业干旱,计算了一个新的农业标准化降水指数(aSPI),该指数在俾路支省以前没有使用过。标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)被广泛推荐用于气象干旱评价。并对干旱指标进行了比较,以验证其适用性。利用1992 ~ 2021年降水、最高气温和最低气温资料,利用DrinC软件和SPEI计算器计算不同时间尺度(3、6、9和12个月)的SPI、aSPI和SPEI。指数结果显示,1998年、1999年、2000年、2001年、2002年、2004年、2008年、2011年、2014年、2016年和2017年是中国的严重至极端干旱年份。结果表明,达尔班丁、奎达、西比、卡拉特、库兹达尔和乔布经历了更高的极端干旱频率。观察到长期和短期干旱持续时间。指数对比表明,SPI是最有效的干旱指数,相对于aSPI和SPEI。这项研究为面对气候引起的干旱时管理水资源提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Comparison of the performances of the gene expression programming model and the RegCM model in predicting monthly runoff 基因表达规划模型与RegCM模型在月径流预测中的性能比较
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-22 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.439
Sajjad Pouyanfar, Hamed Nozari, Mehraneh Khodamoradpour
Abstract Prediction of rainfall and runoff is one of the most important issues in managing catchment water resources and sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the accuracy and efficiency of the Gene Expression Programming (GEP) model and the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) to predict runoff values from monthly precipitation were investigated. For this purpose, monthly precipitation data of 48 synoptic stations, monthly temperature data of 21 synoptic stations, and also monthly runoff data of 40 hydrometric stations located in the Karkheh basin during 45 years (1972–2017) were used. Out of this statistical period, 40 years was used for calibration, and five years (1995–1999) for the validation of the model results. The results showed that the GEP model with an average R2 value of 0.948, average RMSE value of 19.4 m3/s, average NSE value of 0.91, and average SE value of 0.3, had a much more accurate performance than the RegCM model, which had an average R2 value of 0.04, average RMSE value of 298.2 m3/s, average NSE value of −0.64, and average SE value of 4.6 in predicting monthly runoff.
摘要降雨径流预测是流域水资源管理和水资源可持续利用的重要问题之一。研究了基因表达编程(GEP)模型和区域气候模型(RegCM)预测月降水径流值的准确性和效率。利用45 a(1972-2017)库区48个天气站的月降水资料、21个天气站的月气温资料和40个水文站的月径流资料。在此统计期间,40年用于校准,5年(1995-1999)用于模型结果的验证。结果表明,GEP模型对月径流的预测精度显著高于RegCM模型,平均R2为0.948,平均RMSE为19.4 m3/s,平均NSE为0.91,平均SE为0.3,平均RMSE为298.2 m3/s,平均NSE为- 0.64,平均SE为4.6。
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引用次数: 0
Research on urban waterlogging risk prediction based on the coupling of the BP neural network and SWMM model 基于BP神经网络与SWMM模型耦合的城市内涝风险预测研究
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.076
Jinping Zhang, Xuechun Li, Haorui Zhang
Abstract Scientific and effective urban waterlogging risk prediction can help improve urban waterlogging disaster prevention capabilities. Combining the numerical simulation model with the data-driven model, the construction of the urban waterlogging risk predictive model can satisfy the prediction accuracy and improve the prediction timeliness. Thus, this paper established an urban waterlogging risk predictive model based on the coupling of the BP neural network and SWMM model, and set five input patterns, finally selected the accumulative precipitation process and precipitation characteristics as input to predict the regional waterlogging risks under different urban rainstorm scenarios. The results show that the overall performance of the pipe drainage system in the study area is lower, and it cannot resist the rainstorm with a higher return period. Moreover, the total waterlogging risk of the southern old city is higher than that of the northern new city in the study area. The calculation speed of the prediction model constructed in this paper is thousands of times higher than that of the numerical model, so the calculation speed is very fast, which meets the requirements of the forecast timeliness.
科学有效的城市内涝风险预测有助于提高城市内涝防灾能力。将数值模拟模型与数据驱动模型相结合,构建的城市内涝风险预测模型能够满足预测精度,提高预测时效性。因此,本文建立了基于BP神经网络与SWMM模型耦合的城市内涝风险预测模型,并设置了5种输入模式,最终选取累积降水过程和降水特征作为输入,预测不同城市暴雨情景下的区域内涝风险。结果表明:研究区管道排水系统整体性能较低,不能抵抗回复期较大的暴雨。研究区南部老城的总内涝风险高于北部新城。本文构建的预测模型的计算速度是数值模型的数千倍,因此计算速度非常快,满足了预测时效性的要求。
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引用次数: 0
Development of daily bias-corrected ensemble precipitation estimates over the Upper Indus Basin of the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya 兴都库什-喀喇昆仑-喜马拉雅上印度河流域日偏校正整体降水估算的发展
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.202
Kashif Jamal, Xin Li, Yingying Chen, Sajjad Haider, Muhammad Rizwan, Shakil Ahmad
Abstract Accurate precipitation estimates over space and time are critically important, particularly in data-scarce areas, for effective hydrological modeling and efficient regional water resources management. Gridded precipitation datasets are the preeminent alternative in such areas. However, gridded precipitation datasets contain different kinds of uncertainties owing to the retrieval algorithms used in their development. In this study, five precipitation datasets (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), APHRODITE, Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), and PERSIANN) were evaluated, and an ensemble of daily precipitation datasets from 2001 to 2017 at a resolution of 0.05 degree was created based on three ensemble approaches (Bayesian model ensemble, relative bias-based ensemble, and correlation-based ensemble) over the Upper Indus basin. To improve the accuracy of the ensemble dataset, a linear bias correction technique is applied with respect to gauging precipitation. The accuracy of the bias-corrected ensemble dataset was evaluated using statistical and novelty categorical measures. A reasonable agreement was found between the ensemble and gauge precipitation (Pearson correlation 0.83–0.89 and relative bias 1–8.7 mm/month), while large biases were noted in five precipitation datasets (1.7–53.9 mm/month). The study suggests that utilizing ensemble approaches to gridded precipitation can significantly enhance the accuracy of the estimates compared to relying on a single precipitation dataset.
准确的空间和时间降水估算对于有效的水文建模和高效的区域水资源管理至关重要,特别是在数据稀缺的地区。网格降水数据集是这些地区的卓越选择。然而,网格降水数据集由于其开发过程中使用的检索算法而包含不同类型的不确定性。利用热带降雨测量任务(TRMM)、气候预测中心(CPC)、APHRODITE、气候灾害组红外降水与站数据(CHIRPS)和PERSIANN 5个降水数据集,基于贝叶斯模型集合、基于相对偏倚的集合和基于相关性的集合,构建了2001 - 2017年印度河上游流域逐日降水数据集,分辨率为0.05度。为了提高集合数据集的精度,采用线性偏差校正技术对降水进行测量。使用统计和新颖性分类措施评估偏差校正集合数据集的准确性。集合与实测降水具有较好的一致性(Pearson相关0.83 ~ 0.89,相对偏差1 ~ 8.7 mm/月),而5个降水数据集(1.7 ~ 53.9 mm/月)存在较大偏差。研究表明,与依赖单一降水数据集相比,利用网格化降水的集合方法可以显著提高估算的准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Multivariate multi-step LSTM model for flood runoff prediction: a case study on the Godavari River Basin in India 基于多元多步LSTM模型的洪水径流预测——以印度戈达瓦里河流域为例
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.374
Nikita Garg, Srishti Negi, Ridhima Nagar, Shruthi Rao, Seeja K. R.
Abstract Flood is India's most prevalent natural calamity, devastatingly affecting human lives, infrastructure, and agriculture. Predicting floods can help to mitigate the potential damage and conduct timely evacuation drives. This research proposes a deep-learning regression model to forecast flood runoff. Various climatological, hydrological, land, and vegetation-related data have been collected from multiple sources for 18 years (2002–2019) to create a comprehensive dataset for the Godavari River at the Perur water station in India. The relevant attributes identified through feature selection are river water level, precipitation, temperature, surface pressure, evaporation, soil water content, daily runoff, and average river flow. The selected features were fed into various time series prediction models like AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Prophet, Neural Prophet, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The LSTM model obtained the best results achieving a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) value of 0.05, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) value of 0.007, Willmott's Index (WI) of 0.83, Legates-McCabe's Index (LMI) of 0.58, and R2 of 0.67 for a 1-day prediction with a look-back window of 183 days. The model is also trained to predict the flood runoff value for a week ahead. The proposed model can serve as an essential component in flood warning systems.
洪水是印度最常见的自然灾害,对人类生活、基础设施和农业造成了毁灭性的影响。预测洪水可以帮助减轻潜在的损失,并及时进行疏散。本研究提出一种深度学习回归模型来预测洪水径流。从多个来源收集了18年(2002-2019)的各种气候、水文、土地和植被相关数据,为印度Perur水站的戈达瓦里河创建了一个综合数据集。通过特征选择确定的相关属性包括河流水位、降水、温度、地表压力、蒸发、土壤含水量、日径流量和平均河流流量。选择的特征被输入到各种时间序列预测模型中,如自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)、先知、神经先知和长短期记忆(LSTM)。LSTM模型的预测结果最好,RMSE为0.05,MAE为0.007,Willmott's Index (WI)为0.83,legats - mccabe 's Index (LMI)为0.58,R2为0.67,回顾窗口为183天。该模型还经过训练,可以预测未来一周的洪水径流量。该模型可作为洪水预警系统的重要组成部分。
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引用次数: 0
Case study of hydrogen sulfide release in the sulfate-rich sewage drop structure 富硫酸盐污水滴结构中硫化氢释放的实例研究
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.283
Namran F. Hamad, Basim K. Nile, Hassan Thoulfikar A. Alamir, Ahmed M. Faris, Hani K. Ismail, Waqed H. Hassan, Luma M. Ahmed, Hasan Fisal Alesary, Stephen Barton
Abstract H2S is one of the principal odor gases released from sewer networks and understanding the rate of H2S release into sewer air space and ventilation to the atmosphere is crucial for preventing or minimizing odor and corrosion issues in sewer systems. TOXCHEM model was used to simulate the fate of H2S gas in roads for this study. The model was calibrated for the spring and summer seasons and validated for the remainder of the seasons. The predicted behavior showed good correlation to measurements on real samples following statistical analysis, with R2, R, and RMSE results between (0.93–0.97), (0.8–0.82), and (0.000438–0.000838), respectively. A sensitivity study was performed to assess the effect of various pH values, drop heights, tailwater depths, stream widths, and sewer ventilation rate levels. The results showed that the emissions concentrations for winter, spring, summer, and autumn reached 3500, 5044, 6425, and 4045 ppm respectively. All the emissions levels from this DS can be considered hazardous, and this was particularly evident during the summer months. This study has helped to clarify the fate and emission of hydrogen sulfide gas at the DS by simulation using a TOXCHEM model.
H2S是下水道网络释放的主要恶臭气体之一,了解H2S释放到下水道空气空间和通风到大气中的速率对于防止或减少下水道系统中的恶臭和腐蚀问题至关重要。本研究采用TOXCHEM模型模拟H2S气体在道路中的去向。该模型针对春季和夏季进行了校准,并对其余季节进行了验证。经统计分析,预测行为与实际样品的测量结果具有良好的相关性,R2、R和RMSE分别为(0.93-0.97)、(0.8-0.82)和(0.000438-0.000838)。进行了敏感性研究,以评估不同pH值、落差高度、尾水深度、河流宽度和下水道通风水平的影响。结果表明:冬季、春季、夏季和秋季的排放浓度分别为3500、5044、6425和4045 ppm;这个DS的所有排放水平都可以被认为是有害的,这在夏季尤为明显。本研究通过TOXCHEM模型的模拟,帮助阐明了DS硫化氢气体的命运和排放。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of impacts of climate change on the grant and protection of patents related to the water industry 气候变化对水工业相关专利授予和保护的影响分析
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.376
Hossein Shakeri, Zahra Shakeri
Abstract Various inventions are presented in the water industry, essential for the water supply, distribution, treatment, storage, and consumption optimization. It is necessary to confirm their novelty, innovative steps, and industrial applicability to protect water-related patents. However, the impacts of climate change are not considered in the granting of patents, and water-related inventions are registered or rejected regardless of these impacts. For example, an invention that causes greenhouse gas emissions may be patented because it is new. This research addresses this significant challenge using a descriptive-analytical approach and a library-field method. Based on the results, it is necessary to impose strictness on inventions that aggravate climate change (29% of the inventions investigated) and protect inventions that adapt to climate change impacts (71%). Furthermore, it is possible to use the tool of compulsory licensing to adapt to climate change and reduce its negative impacts. Moreover, the patent offices should evaluate climate change impacts by examining innovative steps and industrial applications. An invention that has negative impacts will be deprived of patent protection and considered one of the limitations and exceptions. Also, it is necessary to provide new interpretations of protection elements of the patent system.
水工业中出现了各种各样的发明,这些发明对于水的供应、分配、处理、储存和消费优化至关重要。要保护与水有关的专利,必须确认其新颖性、创新步骤和产业适用性。然而,在授予专利时不考虑气候变化的影响,与水有关的发明被注册或拒绝,而不考虑这些影响。例如,一项导致温室气体排放的发明可能因为是新的而获得专利。本研究使用描述分析方法和图书馆领域方法解决了这一重大挑战。根据研究结果,有必要严格限制加剧气候变化的发明(占调查发明的29%),保护适应气候变化影响的发明(71%)。此外,可以使用强制许可的工具来适应气候变化并减少其负面影响。此外,专利局应该通过审查创新步骤和工业应用来评估气候变化的影响。具有负面影响的发明将被剥夺专利保护,并被视为限制和例外之一。此外,有必要对专利制度的保护要素作出新的解释。
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引用次数: 0
Perspectives of sustainable development vs. law enforcement on damage, pollution and environmental conservation management in Indonesia 可持续发展与印尼损害、污染和环境保护管理执法的观点
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-19 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.417
Marulak Pardede, Mosgan Situmorang, Syprianus Aristeus, Ismail Rumadan, Henry Donald Lumban Toruan, None Diogenes, None Djamilus, Ellen Lutya Putri Nugrahani
Abstract This study uses a normative juridical method based on literature studies to obtain secondary data sourced from primary, secondary, and tertiary legal materials. Specifications of research are analytically descriptive. The data analysis method used is qualitative juridical. The results of the study show that overall government policies on environmentally friendly management have not been able to overcome the conflicts that often arise between the goals of environmental preservation and the goals of economic development. As a solution to overcome these obstacles, it is necessary to enforce criminal law, in addition to imposing material punishments (requiring proof) for crimes which are genetic crimes, it is also necessary to apply formal offenses (no need for proof) for crimes which are specific crimes. The process of enforcing environmental law from the aspect of criminal law will be more successful if it is handled by agencies that technically and institutionally deal with environmental issues. In addition, the concept of sustainable development must be implemented in the legal system for environmental management. In the future, it is necessary to develop coordination between law enforcement officials who are assembled.
摘要本研究采用基于文献研究的规范法学方法,从一级、二级和三级法律材料中获取第二手数据。研究规范是分析性描述的。所使用的数据分析方法是定性的。研究结果表明,政府在环境友好管理方面的总体政策未能克服环境保护目标与经济发展目标之间经常出现的冲突。为了克服这些障碍,除了对遗传犯罪实施物刑(要求举证)外,对具体犯罪实施形式罪(不需要举证)也很有必要。如果由在技术上和体制上处理环境问题的机构来处理,从刑法方面执行环境法的过程将会更加成功。此外,必须在环境管理法律制度中贯彻可持续发展的理念。今后,有必要在聚集的执法人员之间发展协调。
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引用次数: 1
Analysis of hydrological regime evolution and ecological response in the Min River, China 岷江水情演变及生态响应分析
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.210
Hongxiang Wang, Baoliang Wang, Huan Yang, Hongtong Zhou, Hao Chen, Wenxian Guo
Abstract Natural fluctuation of the hydrological regime is the key to maintaining river ecosystem function. Given the shortcomings of previous studies on hydrological regime change and the ecological response of the Min River, this study combined two change degree evaluation methods and Budyko theory to quantify the degree of ecohydrological change and its driving factors. Ecological significance indicators (ecosurplus and ecodeficit) and the Shannon index (SI) were used to identify the characteristics of ecohydrological variation and ecological response mechanisms. The results showed the following: (1) The hydrological regime in the Min River basin had an abrupt change in 1993, with the overall alteration degree reaching 44%, which further led to a decrease in ecological surplus and an increase in the ecological deficit in ecological indicators. (2) Budyko's theoretical results show that climate change and human activities together lead to an 83.83 mm reduction in Min River runoff, with human activities contributing 54.20% of the change in the mean annual runoff, while rainfall and evapotranspiration contribute 43.88 and 1.92%, respectively. (3) The SI index indicates a decreasing trend in Min flow biodiversity. The results of the study can provide a reference for enhancing ecological protection and restoration in the Min River basin.
摘要水文状态的自然波动是维持河流生态系统功能的关键。针对岷江水情变化与生态响应研究的不足,本研究结合两种变化程度评价方法和Budyko理论对岷江生态水文变化程度及其驱动因素进行量化。利用生态显著性指标(生态盈余和生态赤字)和Shannon指数(SI)来识别生态水文变化特征和生态响应机制。结果表明:(1)1993年岷江流域水文形势发生突变,总体变化程度达44%,导致生态盈余减少,生态指标生态赤字增加。(2) Budyko的理论结果表明,气候变化和人类活动共同导致岷江径流量减少83.83 mm,其中人类活动贡献了年平均径流量变化的54.20%,而降雨和蒸散发分别贡献了43.88%和1.92%。(3)最小流生物多样性指数呈下降趋势。研究结果可为加强岷江流域的生态保护与恢复提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing seasonal variation and trends in rainfall patterns of Madhya Pradesh, Central India 评估印度中部中央邦降雨模式的季节变化和趋势
4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2023.280
Amit Kumar, Siddharth Kumar, Kuldeep Singh Rautela, Sulochana Shekhar, Tapas Ray, Mohanasundari Thangavel
Abstract Climate change is a worldwide problem caused by various anthropogenic activities, leading to changes in hydroclimatic variables like temperature, rainfall, riverine flow, and extreme hydrometeorological events. In India, significant changes are noted in its natural resources and agriculture sectors. In this study, we analysed the long-term spatio-temporal change in rainfall patterns of Madhya Pradesh, Central India, using Indian Meteorological Department high-resolution gridded data from 439 grid points. The coefficient of variance analysis showed low variability in annual and monsoon rainfall but significant variability in pre-monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter seasons, indicating considerable seasonal variation. Pre-monsoon rainfall exhibited an increasing trend (0.018 mm annually), while annual, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter rainfall showed decreasing trends. Change point analysis identified shifts in rainfall patterns in 1998 (monsoon, annual), 1955 (pre-monsoon), 1987 (post-monsoon), and 1986 (winter). Spatio-temporal distribution maps depicted irregular rainfall, with some areas experiencing drastic declines in precipitation after 1998. The maximum average annual rainfall reduced from 1,769 to 1,401 mm after 1998 affecting water availability. The study's findings highlight a significant shift in Madhya Pradesh's seasonal rainfall distribution after 1998, urging researchers and policymakers to address water-intensive cropping practices and foster climate resilience for a sustainable future in the region.
气候变化是由各种人为活动引起的全球性问题,导致温度、降雨、河流流量和极端水文气象事件等水文气候变量的变化。在印度,自然资源和农业部门发生了重大变化。本文利用印度气象局439个网格点的高分辨率网格数据,分析了印度中部中央邦降雨模式的长期时空变化。方差系数分析显示,年降水量和季风降水量变化不大,但季风前、季风后和冬季的降水量变化显著,表明季节变化较大。季风前降水呈增加趋势(年均0.018 mm),年、季风、季风后和冬季降水呈减少趋势。变化点分析确定了1998年(季风,年度)、1955年(季风前)、1987年(季风后)和1986年(冬季)降雨模式的变化。时空分布图显示降雨不规律,部分地区在1998年后降水量急剧下降。1998年以后,最大平均年降雨量由1769毫米减少至1401毫米,影响供水。这项研究的发现强调了1998年后中央邦的季节性降雨分布发生了重大变化,敦促科学家和政策制定者解决用水密集型的种植方式,并培养气候适应能力,以实现该地区的可持续未来。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Water and Climate Change
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