Flood risk profoundly impacts the world, threatening human life and property safety. Flood control infrastructure is pivotal in mitigating flooding impacts by reducing flood-prone area frequency, extent, and depth of inundation. However, climate change poses uncertainties that challenge the effectiveness of the existing flood prevention measures. In the current situation, effective urban flood management should involve multiple governing authorities, including water resource management and land-use planning units. Integrating local governments and regulatory bodies is crucial but is often overlooked in regulatory frameworks. This article discusses land restrictions and management strategies and presents suitable suggestions for water resource regulations. Then, this study proposes an extension concept from the Three Points Approach, which identifies technical optimization, spatial planning, and day-to-day value for water management, to the 4PA strategy considering the design for failure concept. This study not only responds well to the future flooding situation under the climate change threats but also presents an adaptation toolkit for urban planning reference. To build resilient cities capable of withstanding climate-induced disasters while sustaining growth, the concept of ‘design for failure’ should be integrated into the urban planning core. This approach aims for sustainable development, emphasizing harmoniously integrating engineering solutions with land-use planning across administrative levels.
{"title":"Enhancing urban flood resilience: interdisciplinary integration of climate adaptation, flood control, and land-use planning from 3PA to 4PA","authors":"Cheng-Chia Huang, Chen-Ling Wang","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.125","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 Flood risk profoundly impacts the world, threatening human life and property safety. Flood control infrastructure is pivotal in mitigating flooding impacts by reducing flood-prone area frequency, extent, and depth of inundation. However, climate change poses uncertainties that challenge the effectiveness of the existing flood prevention measures. In the current situation, effective urban flood management should involve multiple governing authorities, including water resource management and land-use planning units. Integrating local governments and regulatory bodies is crucial but is often overlooked in regulatory frameworks. This article discusses land restrictions and management strategies and presents suitable suggestions for water resource regulations. Then, this study proposes an extension concept from the Three Points Approach, which identifies technical optimization, spatial planning, and day-to-day value for water management, to the 4PA strategy considering the design for failure concept. This study not only responds well to the future flooding situation under the climate change threats but also presents an adaptation toolkit for urban planning reference. To build resilient cities capable of withstanding climate-induced disasters while sustaining growth, the concept of ‘design for failure’ should be integrated into the urban planning core. This approach aims for sustainable development, emphasizing harmoniously integrating engineering solutions with land-use planning across administrative levels.","PeriodicalId":49150,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140366266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using an ensemble of three global climate models, the current study aims to estimate climate change and quantify the changes in the aridity and evapotranspiration of two distinct areas in Ethiopia. To adjust for bias in the climate dataset, the Hydrological Modeling Tool (CMhyd) was used. These studies were initially run using station data and employed the shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios for the short-range (2011–2040) years and medium-range (2041–2070) years. Climate-related aridity is measured using the De Martone and United Nations Environment Programme aridity indices. The study's findings for the western and eastern catchments for the reference period (1981–2010) years reveal an average annual temperature rise of 1.5 and 0.06 °C and a drop in annual precipitation of 15.73 and 3.68 mm/year, respectively. These alter the climate in the geographical areas that have historically supported drought. Evapotranspiration in the western and eastern catchments may grow by up to 24.6 and 21.6%, respectively, by the 2070s. The observation implies that the western catchment may experience more pronounced climate change and volatility than the eastern one. The consequences of this observation influence agriculture, water resource management, and the social and economic well-being of those living in drought-prone areas.
{"title":"Characterizing the aridity indices and potential evapotranspiration using CMIP6-GCMs in two distinct regions of Ethiopia","authors":"Tesema Kebede Seifu, Kidist Demessie Eshetu","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.394","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.394","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 Using an ensemble of three global climate models, the current study aims to estimate climate change and quantify the changes in the aridity and evapotranspiration of two distinct areas in Ethiopia. To adjust for bias in the climate dataset, the Hydrological Modeling Tool (CMhyd) was used. These studies were initially run using station data and employed the shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios for the short-range (2011–2040) years and medium-range (2041–2070) years. Climate-related aridity is measured using the De Martone and United Nations Environment Programme aridity indices. The study's findings for the western and eastern catchments for the reference period (1981–2010) years reveal an average annual temperature rise of 1.5 and 0.06 °C and a drop in annual precipitation of 15.73 and 3.68 mm/year, respectively. These alter the climate in the geographical areas that have historically supported drought. Evapotranspiration in the western and eastern catchments may grow by up to 24.6 and 21.6%, respectively, by the 2070s. The observation implies that the western catchment may experience more pronounced climate change and volatility than the eastern one. The consequences of this observation influence agriculture, water resource management, and the social and economic well-being of those living in drought-prone areas.","PeriodicalId":49150,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140384745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The study focused on analyzing the variability and trends of climate parameters in the Tana sub-basin. Various statistical methods and indices were employed to assess precipitation and temperature patterns in the region. The findings indicated a statistically non-significant increasing trend in rainfall across the sub-basin, with values ranging from 1.64 to 5.37 mm/year. In terms of temperature, there was an increase trend observed, but it was also not statistically significant. The seasonality index ranged between 0.87 and 1.03, indicating different rainfall distribution patterns. In 36.69% of the sub-basin, rainfall occurs in marked seasonal patterns with a long dry season, and the remaining (63.31%) is concentrated in 3 or fewer months, indicating a different rainfall distribution pattern. In addition, the study assessed the precipitation concentration and found that 57.5% of the rainfall data exhibited a strong irregular concentration, 41.5% showed an irregular concentration, and 1% exhibited a moderate concentration. The study underscores the presence of climate variability and trends in the Tana sub-basin, emphasizing the need to align agricultural and water resource management practices with the observed climate variability.
{"title":"Climate variability, trend, and associated risks: Tana sub-basin, Ethiopia","authors":"Bewuketu Abebe Tesfaw, B. Dzwairo, D. Sahlu","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.577","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.577","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 The study focused on analyzing the variability and trends of climate parameters in the Tana sub-basin. Various statistical methods and indices were employed to assess precipitation and temperature patterns in the region. The findings indicated a statistically non-significant increasing trend in rainfall across the sub-basin, with values ranging from 1.64 to 5.37 mm/year. In terms of temperature, there was an increase trend observed, but it was also not statistically significant. The seasonality index ranged between 0.87 and 1.03, indicating different rainfall distribution patterns. In 36.69% of the sub-basin, rainfall occurs in marked seasonal patterns with a long dry season, and the remaining (63.31%) is concentrated in 3 or fewer months, indicating a different rainfall distribution pattern. In addition, the study assessed the precipitation concentration and found that 57.5% of the rainfall data exhibited a strong irregular concentration, 41.5% showed an irregular concentration, and 1% exhibited a moderate concentration. The study underscores the presence of climate variability and trends in the Tana sub-basin, emphasizing the need to align agricultural and water resource management practices with the observed climate variability.","PeriodicalId":49150,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140416320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Vanita Pandey, P. K. Pandey, P. T. Lepcha, Naorem Nirmala Devi
Accurate surface water mapping is crucial for watershed planning and safeguarding regional water resources. The study aimed to extract extent of seasonal surface water, focusing on selected districts of Manipur, northeast India from 2016 to 2021, utilized Sentinel-2 data in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Employing multiple indices and the Random Forest classifier, the methodology addressed challenges such as cloud and shadow interference, particularly in high-altitude regions. Results revealed Bishnupur with the maximum surface water extent (124 km2) and Tengnoupal with the minimum (0.24 km2) during the study period. A notable 6% gain in Bishnupur surface water was observed from pre- to post-monsoon in 2016, while changes in other districts were negligible. Conversely, a maximum loss of 7% occurred in Bishnupur during pre-monsoon from 2016 to 2021. Overall, post-monsoon expansion exceeded that of pre-monsoon in all districts. Discrepancies were evident in both seasons in 2021. The applied techniques proved reliable and innovative, ensuring accurate surface water extent mapping. The GEE platform facilitated enhanced access to satellite data, significantly expediting processing through machine learning algorithms. The findings of this study have the potential to inform surface water planning and management, offering valuable insights for efficient resource utilization.
{"title":"Assessment of surface water dynamics through satellite mapping with Google Earth Engine and Sentinel-2 data in Manipur, India","authors":"Vanita Pandey, P. K. Pandey, P. T. Lepcha, Naorem Nirmala Devi","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.595","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.595","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 Accurate surface water mapping is crucial for watershed planning and safeguarding regional water resources. The study aimed to extract extent of seasonal surface water, focusing on selected districts of Manipur, northeast India from 2016 to 2021, utilized Sentinel-2 data in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Employing multiple indices and the Random Forest classifier, the methodology addressed challenges such as cloud and shadow interference, particularly in high-altitude regions. Results revealed Bishnupur with the maximum surface water extent (124 km2) and Tengnoupal with the minimum (0.24 km2) during the study period. A notable 6% gain in Bishnupur surface water was observed from pre- to post-monsoon in 2016, while changes in other districts were negligible. Conversely, a maximum loss of 7% occurred in Bishnupur during pre-monsoon from 2016 to 2021. Overall, post-monsoon expansion exceeded that of pre-monsoon in all districts. Discrepancies were evident in both seasons in 2021. The applied techniques proved reliable and innovative, ensuring accurate surface water extent mapping. The GEE platform facilitated enhanced access to satellite data, significantly expediting processing through machine learning algorithms. The findings of this study have the potential to inform surface water planning and management, offering valuable insights for efficient resource utilization.","PeriodicalId":49150,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140424720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Sempewo, Joseph Kyeyune, P. Nyenje, Albert Nkwasa, Seith N. Mugume, S. Tsegaye, Jochen Eckart
Although many studies have assessed the singular impacts of future land use and climate change on river hydrology, few studies have investigated the distinct and combined impacts of land use and climate change on river flows particularly in developing countries faced with a challenge of limited data. This study addressed the aforementioned gap and applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and an ensemble of six CORDEX Regional Climate Models under the moderate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios in the River Rwizi catchment area in western Uganda for the period 2021–2050. The isolated impacts of land use change and the combined impacts showed an increase in future total annual river flows. However, the isolated impacts of climate change showed a reduction in future total annual flow. The influence of land use changes on total annual runoff was more dominant than that of climate change. The results show that climate change is the dominant factor impacting future high-flow quantiles while future annual flow and extreme low-flow variations were attributed mainly to land use changes. These findings point to the need to plan and implement prudent land use and water resource management practices to mitigate associated risks.
{"title":"Distinct and combined impacts of future climate and land use change on the flow of River Rwizi in Uganda, East Africa","authors":"J. Sempewo, Joseph Kyeyune, P. Nyenje, Albert Nkwasa, Seith N. Mugume, S. Tsegaye, Jochen Eckart","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.542","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.542","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 Although many studies have assessed the singular impacts of future land use and climate change on river hydrology, few studies have investigated the distinct and combined impacts of land use and climate change on river flows particularly in developing countries faced with a challenge of limited data. This study addressed the aforementioned gap and applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and an ensemble of six CORDEX Regional Climate Models under the moderate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios in the River Rwizi catchment area in western Uganda for the period 2021–2050. The isolated impacts of land use change and the combined impacts showed an increase in future total annual river flows. However, the isolated impacts of climate change showed a reduction in future total annual flow. The influence of land use changes on total annual runoff was more dominant than that of climate change. The results show that climate change is the dominant factor impacting future high-flow quantiles while future annual flow and extreme low-flow variations were attributed mainly to land use changes. These findings point to the need to plan and implement prudent land use and water resource management practices to mitigate associated risks.","PeriodicalId":49150,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140433602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rodrigo Valencia Cotera, S. Egerer, Christine Nam, Ludwig Lierhammer, Lukas Moors, María Máñez Costa
Climate change has increased the intensity, frequency and duration of heatwaves and droughts in Europe turning water management into an even more complicated issue. Because water is a fundamental resource for agriculture, water management has to be addressed with climate change adaptation. While stakeholders in Lower Saxony are aware of adaptation measures they could implement to dampen the effects of climate change, evidence of the effectiveness of adaptation measures at a local scale is still missing. An analysis of adaptation measures using a new hydrological model was performed to test four adaptation measures suggested by stakeholders. Changing crops has the strongest effect followed by improving irrigation efficiency, humification and, finally, artificial aquifer recharge. If crops are changed, irrigation water demand and energy consumption could be reduced by up to 20.7%, costs could be reduced in 19.1%, the aquifer level could rise up to 284.85 mm and emissions could be reduced by 26.6% by the end of the century. Artificial recharge proved to be an inadequate method for the region as it does not impact the irrigation water demand, and an insufficient amount of water is available to have a substantial effect on the aquifer.
{"title":"Resilient agriculture: water management for climate change adaptation in Lower Saxony","authors":"Rodrigo Valencia Cotera, S. Egerer, Christine Nam, Ludwig Lierhammer, Lukas Moors, María Máñez Costa","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.455","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Climate change has increased the intensity, frequency and duration of heatwaves and droughts in Europe turning water management into an even more complicated issue. Because water is a fundamental resource for agriculture, water management has to be addressed with climate change adaptation. While stakeholders in Lower Saxony are aware of adaptation measures they could implement to dampen the effects of climate change, evidence of the effectiveness of adaptation measures at a local scale is still missing. An analysis of adaptation measures using a new hydrological model was performed to test four adaptation measures suggested by stakeholders. Changing crops has the strongest effect followed by improving irrigation efficiency, humification and, finally, artificial aquifer recharge. If crops are changed, irrigation water demand and energy consumption could be reduced by up to 20.7%, costs could be reduced in 19.1%, the aquifer level could rise up to 284.85 mm and emissions could be reduced by 26.6% by the end of the century. Artificial recharge proved to be an inadequate method for the region as it does not impact the irrigation water demand, and an insufficient amount of water is available to have a substantial effect on the aquifer.","PeriodicalId":49150,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140438387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Oscar Gerardo-Nieto, M. Merino-Ibarra, Salvador Sánchez-Carrillo, Andrea P. Guzmán-Arias, Fermín S. Castillo-Sandoval, Mariel Barjau-Aguilar, P. Valdespino-Castillo, Julio A. Lestayo-González, Julio Díaz-Valenzuela, J. Ramírez-Zierold, Frédéric Thalasso
Methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from tropical freshwater ecosystems have been understudied, particularly in terms of their interaction with limnological dynamics, their cycling, and the emission mechanisms of CH4. To help reduce that knowledge gap, this study addressed these processes in Valle de Bravo (VB), a tropical (19° 11. 65′ N) reservoir lake, that provides water supply to Mexico City metropolitan area. CH4 and CO2 concentrations and emissions from VB were measured during four field campaigns distributed along the annual limnological cycle of the reservoir. Dissolved CH4 concentration varied over four orders of magnitude (0.015–176.808 μmol L−1), and dissolved CO2 varied from below atmospheric saturation (15.062 μmol L−1) to 10 times that concentration (219.505 μmol L−1). CH4 fluxes ranged from 23.25 to 1220.80 μmol m−2 day−1, while CO2 fluxes ranged from −60.11 to 254.99 mmol m−2 day−1. Seasonal monitoring also allowed the assessment of the annual emissions as well as the greenhouse gas (GHG) storage during thermal stratification, which accounted for >58% of the total GHG annual emissions from VB. Overall, VB is a source of GHG, and its major contribution is the CH4 released during the autumn overturn.
{"title":"Limnological dynamics of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from a tropical hypertrophic reservoir lake","authors":"Oscar Gerardo-Nieto, M. Merino-Ibarra, Salvador Sánchez-Carrillo, Andrea P. Guzmán-Arias, Fermín S. Castillo-Sandoval, Mariel Barjau-Aguilar, P. Valdespino-Castillo, Julio A. Lestayo-González, Julio Díaz-Valenzuela, J. Ramírez-Zierold, Frédéric Thalasso","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.723","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.723","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from tropical freshwater ecosystems have been understudied, particularly in terms of their interaction with limnological dynamics, their cycling, and the emission mechanisms of CH4. To help reduce that knowledge gap, this study addressed these processes in Valle de Bravo (VB), a tropical (19° 11. 65′ N) reservoir lake, that provides water supply to Mexico City metropolitan area. CH4 and CO2 concentrations and emissions from VB were measured during four field campaigns distributed along the annual limnological cycle of the reservoir. Dissolved CH4 concentration varied over four orders of magnitude (0.015–176.808 μmol L−1), and dissolved CO2 varied from below atmospheric saturation (15.062 μmol L−1) to 10 times that concentration (219.505 μmol L−1). CH4 fluxes ranged from 23.25 to 1220.80 μmol m−2 day−1, while CO2 fluxes ranged from −60.11 to 254.99 mmol m−2 day−1. Seasonal monitoring also allowed the assessment of the annual emissions as well as the greenhouse gas (GHG) storage during thermal stratification, which accounted for >58% of the total GHG annual emissions from VB. Overall, VB is a source of GHG, and its major contribution is the CH4 released during the autumn overturn.","PeriodicalId":49150,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140443645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In addition to the influence of climate change on water availability and hydrological risks, the effects on water quality are in the early stages of investigations. This study aims to consolidate the latest interdisciplinary research in the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the field of assessment of water quality parameters and its prediction. This research paper specifically explores the intricate relationship between climate change and water quality parameters at Sandia station, situated within the Narmada basin in Central India. As global climatic patterns continue to shift, the repercussions on water resources have gained prominence. In this work, electrical conductivity is predicted using the KERAS data processing environment on TensorFlow. The root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), etc. are calculated between observed and predicted values to assess the model performance. A total of 10 models are developed depending upon the input geometry from past monthly timelines. The results indicate that Model no. 8, with 10 inputs performs the best based on the R2 value of 0.889. These results indicate that AI can be very helpful in analyzing the possible threats in the future for drinking, water, livestock feeding, irrigation, and so on.
{"title":"Forecasting of water quality parameters of Sandia station on Narmada basin using AI techniques, Central India","authors":"Deepak Kumar Tiwari, K. R. Singh, Vijendra Kumar","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.520","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.520","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 In addition to the influence of climate change on water availability and hydrological risks, the effects on water quality are in the early stages of investigations. This study aims to consolidate the latest interdisciplinary research in the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the field of assessment of water quality parameters and its prediction. This research paper specifically explores the intricate relationship between climate change and water quality parameters at Sandia station, situated within the Narmada basin in Central India. As global climatic patterns continue to shift, the repercussions on water resources have gained prominence. In this work, electrical conductivity is predicted using the KERAS data processing environment on TensorFlow. The root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), etc. are calculated between observed and predicted values to assess the model performance. A total of 10 models are developed depending upon the input geometry from past monthly timelines. The results indicate that Model no. 8, with 10 inputs performs the best based on the R2 value of 0.889. These results indicate that AI can be very helpful in analyzing the possible threats in the future for drinking, water, livestock feeding, irrigation, and so on.","PeriodicalId":49150,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140452222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alireza Ghaemi, S. H. Hashemi Monfared, A. Bahrpeyma, Peyman Mahmoudi, Mohammad Zounemat-Kermani
This study aims to assess the change of drought characteristics (intensity, duration, and frequency) under the effect of climate change in Iran using the modified standardized precipitation index (MSPI) and theory of runs on annual and seasonal scales for three near-future, mid-future (MF), and far-future climates. Hence, regional climate models extracted from South Asia-Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX-SA) are applied. Regarding the result, MSPI could assign the standardized precipitation index (SPI) values better than the conventional form of SPI during the historical period (HP). The outcomes revealed that the northeast stations will experience a decrease in intensity (up to 24.57% in MF compared to HP) until 2100 at seasonal timescale. While the duration and frequency of drought will be increased. Although the greatest increase in intensity changes of droughts (up to 91%) until the end of the century will happen in the eastern and southwestern regions of Iran, these regions will face the maximum decrease in the duration (−30.54%) and frequency (−25%) of droughts compared to HP at seasonal timescale. In addition, regarding the outcomes of this study, strategies can be adopted to better manage water resources for various regions of Iran.
本研究旨在利用修正的标准化降水指数（MSPI）和运行理论，评估伊朗在气候变化影响下干旱特征（强度、持续时间和频率）在近未来、中未来（MF）和远未来三种气候下年和季节尺度上的变化。因此，应用了从南亚协调区域气候降尺度实验（CORDEX-SA）中提取的区域气候模型。结果表明，在历史时期（HP），MSPI 比传统形式的 SPI 更好地分配标准化降水指数（SPI）值。结果表明，在季节时间尺度上，东北部各站的干旱强度在 2100 年前将有所下降（与 HP 相比，MF 降低了 24.57%）。而干旱的持续时间和频率将增加。虽然到本世纪末，伊朗东部和西南部地区的干旱强度变化增幅最大（高达 91%），但这些地区的干旱持续时间（-30.54%）和频率（-25%）在季节时间尺度上将比 HP 地区下降最多。此外，根据本研究的结果，可以采取一些策略来更好地管理伊朗各地区的水资源。
{"title":"Spatiotemporal variation of projected drought characteristics in Iran under climate change scenarios using CMIP5-CORDEX product","authors":"Alireza Ghaemi, S. H. Hashemi Monfared, A. Bahrpeyma, Peyman Mahmoudi, Mohammad Zounemat-Kermani","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.468","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 This study aims to assess the change of drought characteristics (intensity, duration, and frequency) under the effect of climate change in Iran using the modified standardized precipitation index (MSPI) and theory of runs on annual and seasonal scales for three near-future, mid-future (MF), and far-future climates. Hence, regional climate models extracted from South Asia-Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX-SA) are applied. Regarding the result, MSPI could assign the standardized precipitation index (SPI) values better than the conventional form of SPI during the historical period (HP). The outcomes revealed that the northeast stations will experience a decrease in intensity (up to 24.57% in MF compared to HP) until 2100 at seasonal timescale. While the duration and frequency of drought will be increased. Although the greatest increase in intensity changes of droughts (up to 91%) until the end of the century will happen in the eastern and southwestern regions of Iran, these regions will face the maximum decrease in the duration (−30.54%) and frequency (−25%) of droughts compared to HP at seasonal timescale. In addition, regarding the outcomes of this study, strategies can be adopted to better manage water resources for various regions of Iran.","PeriodicalId":49150,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140453418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kibru Gedam Berhanu, T. K. Lohani, Samuel Dagalo Hatiye
Evaluating water storage changes and addressing drought challenges in areas like the Tana sub-basin in Ethiopia is difficult due to limited data availability. The aim of this study was to evaluate the dynamics of terrestrial water anomaly and drought incidences by employing multiple data source. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) datasets were used to assess the long-term water storage dynamics and drought incidences using the weighted water storage deficit index (WWSDI). WWSDI was used to identify drought periods, which ranged from severe to extreme drought. Despite the overall increase in average annual total water storage anomaly (TWSA) by 0.43 cm/year and a net gain of 50.68 cm equivalent water height from 2003 to 2022, there were instances of terrestrial water storage deficits, particularly in 2005, 2006, and 2009, during historical drought periods. The TWSA exhibited a strong correlation with Lake Tana water storage and precipitation anomalies after adjusting lag times. WWSDI displayed a high correlation with WSDI but a weak correlation with SPI and SPEI. Therefore, utilization of GRACE and GLDAS data is promising for evaluating terrestrial water storage and monitoring drought in data-deficient regions like the Tana sub-basin in Ethiopia.
{"title":"Comparative evaluation of the dynamics of terrestrial water storage and drought incidences using multiple data sources: Tana sub-basin, Ethiopia","authors":"Kibru Gedam Berhanu, T. K. Lohani, Samuel Dagalo Hatiye","doi":"10.2166/wcc.2024.484","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.484","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 Evaluating water storage changes and addressing drought challenges in areas like the Tana sub-basin in Ethiopia is difficult due to limited data availability. The aim of this study was to evaluate the dynamics of terrestrial water anomaly and drought incidences by employing multiple data source. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) datasets were used to assess the long-term water storage dynamics and drought incidences using the weighted water storage deficit index (WWSDI). WWSDI was used to identify drought periods, which ranged from severe to extreme drought. Despite the overall increase in average annual total water storage anomaly (TWSA) by 0.43 cm/year and a net gain of 50.68 cm equivalent water height from 2003 to 2022, there were instances of terrestrial water storage deficits, particularly in 2005, 2006, and 2009, during historical drought periods. The TWSA exhibited a strong correlation with Lake Tana water storage and precipitation anomalies after adjusting lag times. WWSDI displayed a high correlation with WSDI but a weak correlation with SPI and SPEI. Therefore, utilization of GRACE and GLDAS data is promising for evaluating terrestrial water storage and monitoring drought in data-deficient regions like the Tana sub-basin in Ethiopia.","PeriodicalId":49150,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Water and Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140459776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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