Uncertainty profoundly influences hydropower projections under climate change, involving both aleatory and epistemic factors and necessitating varied methodological approaches. This study integrates top-down (General Circulation Models (GCM)) and bottom-up machine learning-based projections, incorporating land use changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. GCMs predict substantial precipitation increases, up to 52.39 % under SSP5–8.5 scenarios, with temperature changes ranging from 0.77 °C to 6.21 °C. In contrast, bottom-up approaches forecast declining basin-wide precipitation from September to December, followed by increases. Spring-fed and snow-fed rivers generally show higher flows in GCM scenarios but lower flows in bottom-up scenarios. Snow-fed rivers exhibit notably greater discharge and energy variability compared to spring-fed rivers, with secondary energy experiencing more significant fluctuations than primary energy. This study underscores the need for diverse methodologies in hydropower planning and highlights the importance of integrating modeling approaches and enhancing collaboration among hydrologists, climate scientists, and policymakers. Future research should focus on combining multiple methodologies for more comprehensive climate impact assessments.
{"title":"Confronting uncertainty: The future of hydropower in the himalayan region amidst climate ambiguity","authors":"Nirajan Devkota, Suraj Lamichhane, Pawan Kumar Bhattarai","doi":"10.1016/j.esd.2025.101657","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esd.2025.101657","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Uncertainty profoundly influences hydropower projections under climate change, involving both aleatory and epistemic factors and necessitating varied methodological approaches. This study integrates top-down (General Circulation Models (GCM)) and bottom-up machine learning-based projections, incorporating land use changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. GCMs predict substantial precipitation increases, up to 52.39 % under SSP5–8.5 scenarios, with temperature changes ranging from 0.77 °C to 6.21 °C. In contrast, bottom-up approaches forecast declining basin-wide precipitation from September to December, followed by increases. Spring-fed and snow-fed rivers generally show higher flows in GCM scenarios but lower flows in bottom-up scenarios. Snow-fed rivers exhibit notably greater discharge and energy variability compared to spring-fed rivers, with secondary energy experiencing more significant fluctuations than primary energy. This study underscores the need for diverse methodologies in hydropower planning and highlights the importance of integrating modeling approaches and enhancing collaboration among hydrologists, climate scientists, and policymakers. Future research should focus on combining multiple methodologies for more comprehensive climate impact assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49209,"journal":{"name":"Energy for Sustainable Development","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 101657"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-20DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101656
Yifei Quan , Maosheng Duan , Chongjia Luo
Implicit carbon prices (ICP), akin to explicit carbon prices derived from carbon pricing instruments, reflect the climate mitigation efforts of specific jurisdictions through non-carbon pricing policies. In this paper, we propose a transparent and systematic methodology for measuring the implicit carbon price related to renewable energy incentives, which represents average abatement cost of CO2 emissions resulting from renewable support policies. Applying this method, we evaluate China's ICPs of renewable policies from 2009 to 2021. We find that China's country-level ICP rose upward from 2.01 CNY in 2009 to 44.64 CNY in 2021, peaking at 47.70 CNY in 2019. This price level is on par with explicit carbon price in the early stage of China's national emissions trading system, highlighting the country's substantial efforts to address climate change by deploying renewables. Scrutiny of different provinces and renewable generation technologies uncovers great variations in ICPs, which implies significant heterogeneity in abatement costs and policy efficiency within the renewable energy sector. While our analysis focuses on China, the method is easily adaptable to other jurisdictions as a useful tool for assessing mitigation efforts and identifying effective emission reduction instruments.
{"title":"Measuring implicit carbon prices of renewable energy incentives: Insights from China","authors":"Yifei Quan , Maosheng Duan , Chongjia Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.esd.2025.101656","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esd.2025.101656","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Implicit carbon prices (ICP), akin to explicit carbon prices derived from carbon pricing instruments, reflect the climate mitigation efforts of specific jurisdictions through non-carbon pricing policies. In this paper, we propose a transparent and systematic methodology for measuring the implicit carbon price related to renewable energy incentives, which represents average abatement cost of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions resulting from renewable support policies. Applying this method, we evaluate China's ICPs of renewable policies from 2009 to 2021. We find that China's country-level ICP rose upward from 2.01 CNY in 2009 to 44.64 CNY in 2021, peaking at 47.70 CNY in 2019. This price level is on par with explicit carbon price in the early stage of China's national emissions trading system, highlighting the country's substantial efforts to address climate change by deploying renewables. Scrutiny of different provinces and renewable generation technologies uncovers great variations in ICPs, which implies significant heterogeneity in abatement costs and policy efficiency within the renewable energy sector. While our analysis focuses on China, the method is easily adaptable to other jurisdictions as a useful tool for assessing mitigation efforts and identifying effective emission reduction instruments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49209,"journal":{"name":"Energy for Sustainable Development","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 101656"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-18DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101647
Walter Leal Filho , Bianca Gasparetto Rebelatto , Amanda Lange Salvia , Izabela Simon Rampasso , Andrea Gatto , Vincent Barrioz , Yusuf A. Aina , Julian David Hunt , Rosley Anholon , Priscilla Cristina Cabral Ribeiro , Luciana Londero Brandli
Based on the definition of the United Nations Development Programme, energy poverty refers to the lack of access to modern energy services, including electricity and clean cooking facilities, primarily affecting millions in low-income and developing countries. Access to energy is one of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG7), advocating clean energy for all. This study seeks to bridge gaps in understanding the drivers and impacts of energy poverty while presenting strategies to address it. It employs a three-fold methodological framework. First, it conducts a comprehensive assessment of the factors contributing to energy poverty, supported by a review of relevant literature to highlight existing knowledge gaps. Second, it examines the socio-economic impacts of energy poverty across different regions globally, focusing on its prevalence and consequences disparities. Third, the paper analyzes international case studies showcasing pioneering strategies and innovative approaches - defined as novel, scalable, and context-sensitive solutions - to enhance energy access. The findings underscore the widespread and severe socio-economic consequences of energy poverty, particularly in Africa, the most affected region. Despite its significance, energy poverty remains inadequately addressed in policy-making processes. The results from this study may provide a new impulse towards their upscaling and replication of successful approaches documented in the case studies, helping developing countries to address their energy needs and generate income at the local level. By offering a critical review of socio-economic deficiencies and presenting innovative solutions, this paper advances the discourse on energy poverty and supports global efforts towards energy equity.
{"title":"Addressing energy poverty: Regional trends and examples of best practice","authors":"Walter Leal Filho , Bianca Gasparetto Rebelatto , Amanda Lange Salvia , Izabela Simon Rampasso , Andrea Gatto , Vincent Barrioz , Yusuf A. Aina , Julian David Hunt , Rosley Anholon , Priscilla Cristina Cabral Ribeiro , Luciana Londero Brandli","doi":"10.1016/j.esd.2024.101647","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esd.2024.101647","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on the definition of the United Nations Development Programme, energy poverty refers to the lack of access to modern energy services, including electricity and clean cooking facilities, primarily affecting millions in low-income and developing countries. Access to energy is one of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG7), advocating clean energy for all. This study seeks to bridge gaps in understanding the drivers and impacts of energy poverty while presenting strategies to address it. It employs a three-fold methodological framework. First, it conducts a comprehensive assessment of the factors contributing to energy poverty, supported by a review of relevant literature to highlight existing knowledge gaps. Second, it examines the socio-economic impacts of energy poverty across different regions globally, focusing on its prevalence and consequences disparities. Third, the paper analyzes international case studies showcasing pioneering strategies and innovative approaches - defined as novel, scalable, and context-sensitive solutions - to enhance energy access. The findings underscore the widespread and severe socio-economic consequences of energy poverty, particularly in Africa, the most affected region. Despite its significance, energy poverty remains inadequately addressed in policy-making processes. The results from this study may provide a new impulse towards their upscaling and replication of successful approaches documented in the case studies, helping developing countries to address their energy needs and generate income at the local level. By offering a critical review of socio-economic deficiencies and presenting innovative solutions, this paper advances the discourse on energy poverty and supports global efforts towards energy equity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49209,"journal":{"name":"Energy for Sustainable Development","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 101647"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-16DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101652
Nandi Mbazima , Xavier Lemaire
An innovative approach to rural electrification advancement has been the development of the anchor-based business model for mini-grids, which adopts a novel approach to delivering electricity to different rural customer segments to achieve a commercially viable project. Mini-grid research focusing on the anchor-based model is gaining traction within the scholarly literature. However, studies largely examine the technical and economic aspects of anchor-based systems and lack an intricate focus on their social and political elements, particularly with respect to understanding the post-implementation development reality of operationalised anchor-based mini-grid projects in achieving sound and equitable electricity access.
Through a qualitative study, this paper presents the results of a case study of a hydro anchor-based mini-grid in remote rural Zambia, that examines the outcomes and proceedings that materialised within the district following the mini-grid's implementation, from a social perspective. Key stakeholder interviews and ethnographic techniques were employed to collect data from the suite of social actors that reside within the mini-grid system, and thematic analysis and critical realism were analytical methods employed to gain insights into the workings of the system, interrelations of the actors, and the underlying mechanisms at play. The results demonstrate that power structures and dynamics, as well as gender and cultural ideologies, are two important mechanisms at play, where various forms of power are particularly significant elements that permeate from the anchor-based system and political power itself is inherent to the anchor-based system.
{"title":"Anchor-based mini-grids: (Political) power beyond technology? The case of a mini-hydro scheme in Rural Zambia","authors":"Nandi Mbazima , Xavier Lemaire","doi":"10.1016/j.esd.2025.101652","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esd.2025.101652","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An innovative approach to rural electrification advancement has been the development of the anchor-based business model for mini-grids, which adopts a novel approach to delivering electricity to different rural customer segments to achieve a commercially viable project. Mini-grid research focusing on the anchor-based model is gaining traction within the scholarly literature. However, studies largely examine the technical and economic aspects of anchor-based systems and lack an intricate focus on their social and political elements, particularly with respect to understanding the post-implementation development reality of operationalised anchor-based mini-grid projects in achieving sound and equitable electricity access.</div><div>Through a qualitative study, this paper presents the results of a case study of a hydro anchor-based mini-grid in remote rural Zambia, that examines the outcomes and proceedings that materialised within the district following the mini-grid's implementation, from a social perspective. Key stakeholder interviews and ethnographic techniques were employed to collect data from the suite of social actors that reside within the mini-grid system, and thematic analysis and critical realism were analytical methods employed to gain insights into the workings of the system, interrelations of the actors, and the underlying mechanisms at play. The results demonstrate that power structures and dynamics, as well as gender and cultural ideologies, are two important mechanisms at play, where various forms of power are particularly significant elements that permeate from the anchor-based system and political power itself is inherent to the anchor-based system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49209,"journal":{"name":"Energy for Sustainable Development","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 101652"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-16DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101655
Qing Guo, Kunqi Lin
The development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry is intrinsically linked to the availability of critical mineral resources, with notable disparities in the accessibility and distribution of these resources across the global trade network. To investigate the impact of critical mineral trade patterns on the NEV industry, this study constructs a global critical mineral trade network spanning the period from 2013 to 2023, employing a complex network methodology to quantitatively analyze its evolution characteristics. A dynamic econometric model is subsequently applied to assess the influence of these trade patterns on the NEV industry's growth, with particular attention to the mediating role of technological advancement. The findings of this study indicate that: Agusdinata et al. (2022) (1) the global trade network for critical minerals is characterized by an expanding scale, structural stability, and low density, exhibiting the traits of a “small-world” network; Alam et al. (2022) (2) trade strength and centrality within the network significantly bolster the development of national NEV industry, with technological progress serving as a key intermediary; Bai et al. (2024) (3) technological advancement fully mediates the relationship between critical mineral trade and the growth of the NEV industry. In light of these findings, the article proposes a series of policy recommendations aimed at enhancing resource utilization and fostering sustainable industry development.
{"title":"How trading patterns of critical minerals affects the NEV industry? A complex network and multiple regression analysis approach","authors":"Qing Guo, Kunqi Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.esd.2025.101655","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esd.2025.101655","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry is intrinsically linked to the availability of critical mineral resources, with notable disparities in the accessibility and distribution of these resources across the global trade network. To investigate the impact of critical mineral trade patterns on the NEV industry, this study constructs a global critical mineral trade network spanning the period from 2013 to 2023, employing a complex network methodology to quantitatively analyze its evolution characteristics. A dynamic econometric model is subsequently applied to assess the influence of these trade patterns on the NEV industry's growth, with particular attention to the mediating role of technological advancement. The findings of this study indicate that: <span><span>Agusdinata et al. (2022)</span></span> (1) the global trade network for critical minerals is characterized by an expanding scale, structural stability, and low density, exhibiting the traits of a “small-world” network; <span><span>Alam et al. (2022)</span></span> (2) trade strength and centrality within the network significantly bolster the development of national NEV industry, with technological progress serving as a key intermediary; <span><span>Bai et al. (2024)</span></span> (3) technological advancement fully mediates the relationship between critical mineral trade and the growth of the NEV industry. In light of these findings, the article proposes a series of policy recommendations aimed at enhancing resource utilization and fostering sustainable industry development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49209,"journal":{"name":"Energy for Sustainable Development","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 101655"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-13DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101654
Ying Ji , Qianwen Lu , Menghan Niu , Nan Zhang , Jingchao Xie
With the increase demand on electricity for urban residential living, compounded by factors such as frequent extreme weather events, residential electricity demand has significantly risen. This study did the investigation on building energy consumption habits of residents in Beijing urban areas, combined with real residential electricity bills acquired through State Grid Corporation of China, to explore the energy usage patterns and influence factors. By questionnaire statistics, households were divided into 6 categories and the electrical appliances usage characteristics and energy consumption levels were analyzed. The research identified urban residents' living habits and electricity usage, revealing significant quantitative relationship among electricity consumption, family structure, economic level and so on with principal component analysis (PCA). The analysis of household electricity consumption showed that households simultaneously including workers, school students, and people who usually stay in homes (e.g. retired, unemployed) had the highest average annual energy consumption at 4226 kWh/household, which was 1134–1625 kWh/household higher than homes without members staying in during office hours. The combination of air conditioners (ACs) and electric fans is found to be commonly used in residential buildings, and this method is highly effective in energy conservation. Additionally, it is indicated that 46.5 % of residents were willing to participate in the strategy of flexible energy use. Amidst the comprehensive electrification trend in buildings, this study is of great significance for energy conservation, emission reduction, and demand-side management.
{"title":"Research on the characteristics and influence factors of residential building energy usage patterns: A case study in Beijing","authors":"Ying Ji , Qianwen Lu , Menghan Niu , Nan Zhang , Jingchao Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.esd.2025.101654","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esd.2025.101654","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the increase demand on electricity for urban residential living, compounded by factors such as frequent extreme weather events, residential electricity demand has significantly risen. This study did the investigation on building energy consumption habits of residents in Beijing urban areas, combined with real residential electricity bills acquired through State Grid Corporation of China, to explore the energy usage patterns and influence factors. By questionnaire statistics, households were divided into 6 categories and the electrical appliances usage characteristics and energy consumption levels were analyzed. The research identified urban residents' living habits and electricity usage, revealing significant quantitative relationship among electricity consumption, family structure, economic level and so on with principal component analysis (PCA). The analysis of household electricity consumption showed that households simultaneously including workers, school students, and people who usually stay in homes (e.g. retired, unemployed) had the highest average annual energy consumption at 4226 kWh/household, which was 1134–1625 kWh/household higher than homes without members staying in during office hours. The combination of air conditioners (ACs) and electric fans is found to be commonly used in residential buildings, and this method is highly effective in energy conservation. Additionally, it is indicated that 46.5 % of residents were willing to participate in the strategy of flexible energy use. Amidst the comprehensive electrification trend in buildings, this study is of great significance for energy conservation, emission reduction, and demand-side management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49209,"journal":{"name":"Energy for Sustainable Development","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 101654"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-13DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101649
Yanfei Li , Chong Guan , Alloysius Joko Purwanto , Bowen Chen , Youwei Zhao
This research investigates the optimal distribution of the battery electric vehicle (BEV) supply chain across ASEAN member states (AMS) by analyzing the interplay of intrinsic endowments, explicit advantages, and macro-level policies. Employing a mixed-methods approach, scenario analysis will explore diverse outcomes based on policy and global trend fluctuations, while comparative case studies of successful BEV supply chains in other regions will offer valuable lessons for ASEAN. The study analyzed the influence of key macro-level factors—such as industrial capacity, resources, manpower, renewable energy, and foreign direct investment (FDI)—on the development and integration of the BEV supply chain. It also identified optimal specialization and collaboration patterns for AMS based on comparative advantage and provided policy recommendations accordingly. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers in crafting targeted interventions to enhance regional competitiveness, attract BEV value chain investments, and optimize ASEAN's position within the global BEV ecosystem.
{"title":"Distribution of the ASEAN battery electric vehicle production network: Mapping the interplay of endowments, policies, and global integration","authors":"Yanfei Li , Chong Guan , Alloysius Joko Purwanto , Bowen Chen , Youwei Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.esd.2024.101649","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esd.2024.101649","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research investigates the optimal distribution of the battery electric vehicle (BEV) supply chain across ASEAN member states (AMS) by analyzing the interplay of intrinsic endowments, explicit advantages, and macro-level policies. Employing a mixed-methods approach, scenario analysis will explore diverse outcomes based on policy and global trend fluctuations, while comparative case studies of successful BEV supply chains in other regions will offer valuable lessons for ASEAN. The study analyzed the influence of key macro-level factors—such as industrial capacity, resources, manpower, renewable energy, and foreign direct investment (FDI)—on the development and integration of the BEV supply chain. It also identified optimal specialization and collaboration patterns for AMS based on comparative advantage and provided policy recommendations accordingly. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers in crafting targeted interventions to enhance regional competitiveness, attract BEV value chain investments, and optimize ASEAN's position within the global BEV ecosystem.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49209,"journal":{"name":"Energy for Sustainable Development","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 101649"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The transition to clean cooking fuels is essential for improving human health, enhancing environmental sustainability and promoting socio-economic growth and development, especially in developing countries, Nigeria inclusive. This study investigates the factors that influence household cooking fuel transitions by analyzing the data from the General Household Survey 2015–2016 and 2018–2019 waves. With the aid of a multinomial logistic regression model, the study investigates how different dynamic factors — including urbanization, income levels, educational attainment of household heads, and access to clean cooking fuels — are related to households' shifts toward clean cooking fuels. The logistic regression results showed that while urbanization and increased income significantly boost the transition to clean cooking fuels, some factors like large family sizes, absence of clean energy sources, and low educational levels hinder this transition. This study adds to the existing literature by offering a more complex perspective on the fuel transitions in Nigeria, stating the importance of accessibility, education, and targeted interventions. To motivate energy choices of the household toward green, modern energy sources, our recommendations will be subsidizing clean cooking fuels, improving LPG distribution networks, energy literacy promotion, and community-based programs. These approaches are crucial for relieving the health hazards associated with traditional cooking techniques and promoting the sustainable growth of Nigeria.
{"title":"Evolving energy choices: Analyzing the dynamics of clean cooking fuel transition in Nigeria","authors":"Ishola Wasiu Oyeniran , Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi , Kazeem Babatunde Alasinrin","doi":"10.1016/j.esd.2024.101630","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esd.2024.101630","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transition to clean cooking fuels is essential for improving human health, enhancing environmental sustainability and promoting socio-economic growth and development, especially in developing countries, Nigeria inclusive. This study investigates the factors that influence household cooking fuel transitions by analyzing the data from the General Household Survey 2015–2016 and 2018–2019 waves. With the aid of a multinomial logistic regression model, the study investigates how different dynamic factors — including urbanization, income levels, educational attainment of household heads, and access to clean cooking fuels — are related to households' shifts toward clean cooking fuels. The logistic regression results showed that while urbanization and increased income significantly boost the transition to clean cooking fuels, some factors like large family sizes, absence of clean energy sources, and low educational levels hinder this transition. This study adds to the existing literature by offering a more complex perspective on the fuel transitions in Nigeria, stating the importance of accessibility, education, and targeted interventions. To motivate energy choices of the household toward green, modern energy sources, our recommendations will be subsidizing clean cooking fuels, improving LPG distribution networks, energy literacy promotion, and community-based programs. These approaches are crucial for relieving the health hazards associated with traditional cooking techniques and promoting the sustainable growth of Nigeria.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49209,"journal":{"name":"Energy for Sustainable Development","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 101630"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The effects of global warming and subsequent climate change have become major concerns for the environment and societies worldwide. One of the key drivers for these challenges is the increasing demand of energy consumption, which contributes to greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Energy sector is the largest main contributor of GHG emissions, with contributed 73 % of total global emissions and transport sector accounting for 16 % of total those emissions. This is largely driven by the increasing number of the vehicles, especially passenger cars and motorcycles, which comprise the majority of the global vehicle fleet. Therefore, many countries are implementing policies to phase out fossil fuel vehicles and promote the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). However, several key factors that influence the total cost of ownership (TCO) of vehicles should be considered, including energy cost, the manufacturer's suggested retail price, maintenance cost, insurance, tax, and battery replacement cost. This study aims to calculate and compare the TCO of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and EV for both passenger cars and motorcycles in five key countries in ASEAN: namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Viet Nam. The findings found that the comparative TCO of EV and ICE vehicles varies across ASEAN countries due to differences in energy costs, government policies, and market maturity for EVs. Additionally, the EV sample vehicles were selected based on 2023 data, as new EV models continue to penetrate the market year after year. However, the results underscore the importance of government policies and measures in promoting the adoption of EVs, particularly in terms of their environmental benefits and contribution to sustainability.
{"title":"Total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis of electric vehicle in ASEAN","authors":"Tawan Champeecharoensuk, Peerawat Saisirirat, Nuwong Chollacoop, Khemrath Vithean, Kampanat Thapmanee, Kampanart Silva, Arthit Champeecharoensuk","doi":"10.1016/j.esd.2024.101650","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esd.2024.101650","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The effects of global warming and subsequent climate change have become major concerns for the environment and societies worldwide. One of the key drivers for these challenges is the increasing demand of energy consumption, which contributes to greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Energy sector is the largest main contributor of GHG emissions, with contributed 73 % of total global emissions and transport sector accounting for 16 % of total those emissions. This is largely driven by the increasing number of the vehicles, especially passenger cars and motorcycles, which comprise the majority of the global vehicle fleet. Therefore, many countries are implementing policies to phase out fossil fuel vehicles and promote the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). However, several key factors that influence the total cost of ownership (TCO) of vehicles should be considered, including energy cost, the manufacturer's suggested retail price, maintenance cost, insurance, tax, and battery replacement cost. This study aims to calculate and compare the TCO of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and EV for both passenger cars and motorcycles in five key countries in ASEAN: namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Viet Nam. The findings found that the comparative TCO of EV and ICE vehicles varies across ASEAN countries due to differences in energy costs, government policies, and market maturity for EVs. Additionally, the EV sample vehicles were selected based on 2023 data, as new EV models continue to penetrate the market year after year. However, the results underscore the importance of government policies and measures in promoting the adoption of EVs, particularly in terms of their environmental benefits and contribution to sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49209,"journal":{"name":"Energy for Sustainable Development","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 101650"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The trade-in initiative for spent power battery (S-PB) in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry not only guarantees battery effective recycling but also facilitates extensive adoption of the NEV. However, the trade-in initiative rises a complex and ever changing game involving both the power battery manufacturer (PB-M) and the NEV manufacturer (NEV-M), especially in developing countries where NEV has gained widespread acceptance with thriving new business models for S-PB. This article formulates a set of dynamic differential games to examine how trade-in subsidy, repurchase and wholesale price, delay effect, technology level, market share impacts the promotion of trade-in strategy and the total profit for the NEV-M and PB-M. Three game modes are investigated including the non-cooperative mode, collaborative cooperation mode, and particularly bilateral incentive mode that is widely applied in developing countries. The research finds that: (1) The impact of the trade-in subsidy on overall profit initially increases then decreases. The NEV-M achieves optimal profitability with a smaller trade-in subsidy compared to PB-M. (2) The trade-in subsidy, NEV retail price, and S-PB repurchase price exert positive influences on market demand, whereas the PB wholesale price exhibits a negative impact. (3) The delay effect would stimulate R&D, promotion effort, technology level and market demand for the trade-in initiative, while suppressing overall profits of the NEV-m and PB-M in collaborative cooperation mode. (4) Between PB-M and NEV-M, the R&D cost sharing shrinks while the promotion cost sharing increases with the growth of the trade-in subsidy.
{"title":"Bilateral cooperation or complete autonomy? Research on the trade-in of NEV battery using a differential game with delay effect","authors":"Chuan Zhao , Jiahui Ding , Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary , Hongxia Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.esd.2024.101644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.esd.2024.101644","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The trade-in initiative for spent power battery (S-PB) in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry not only guarantees battery effective recycling but also facilitates extensive adoption of the NEV. However, the trade-in initiative rises a complex and ever changing game involving both the power battery manufacturer (PB-M) and the NEV manufacturer (NEV-M), especially in developing countries where NEV has gained widespread acceptance with thriving new business models for S-PB. This article formulates a set of dynamic differential games to examine how trade-in subsidy, repurchase and wholesale price, delay effect, technology level, market share impacts the promotion of trade-in strategy and the total profit for the NEV-M and PB-M. Three game modes are investigated including the non-cooperative mode, collaborative cooperation mode, and particularly bilateral incentive mode that is widely applied in developing countries. The research finds that: (1) The impact of the trade-in subsidy on overall profit initially increases then decreases. The NEV-M achieves optimal profitability with a smaller trade-in subsidy compared to PB-M. (2) The trade-in subsidy, NEV retail price, and S-PB repurchase price exert positive influences on market demand, whereas the PB wholesale price exhibits a negative impact. (3) The delay effect would stimulate R&D, promotion effort, technology level and market demand for the trade-in initiative, while suppressing overall profits of the NEV-m and PB-M in collaborative cooperation mode. (4) Between PB-M and NEV-M, the R&D cost sharing shrinks while the promotion cost sharing increases with the growth of the trade-in subsidy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49209,"journal":{"name":"Energy for Sustainable Development","volume":"85 ","pages":"Article 101644"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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