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Balancing growth and decarbonization: Political economy dynamics in China's 2060 carbon neutrality strategy 平衡增长与脱碳:中国2060年碳中和战略的政治经济动态
IF 4.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101897
Umair Khan , Shouwen Wang
China's pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 necessitates a fundamental transformation of its energy system; yet coal remains the dominant energy source. This paper investigates the political economy of China's energy transition, focusing on institutional and technical constraints. Drawing on policy analysis, relevant literature, and qualitative interviews with nine energy experts, the study identifies structural barriers that hinder the shift toward clean energy. Institutional challenges include fragmented governance, insufficient financing mechanisms, and a lack of cross-sectoral coordination. Technical challenges arise from the difficulty of reducing energy intensity, decarbonizing power generation, cutting emissions in transportation and industry, and scaling carbon capture technologies. Findings suggest that energy security and economic growth continue to outweigh decarbonization in China's policy priorities. To realign its energy strategy with carbon neutrality, China must adopt binding policies, reduce fossil fuel subsidies, foster renewable investment, and enhance efficiency across sectors. This research contributes to the literature by situating China's case within comparative political economy debates and offering insights into the conditions under which developing economies can reconcile growth with decarbonization.
中国承诺到2060年实现碳中和,这就需要对其能源体系进行根本性转变;然而,煤炭仍然是主要的能源来源。本文研究了中国能源转型的政治经济学,重点关注制度和技术约束。根据政策分析、相关文献和对九位能源专家的定性访谈,该研究确定了阻碍向清洁能源转变的结构性障碍。体制方面的挑战包括治理分散、融资机制不足以及缺乏跨部门协调。技术挑战来自于降低能源强度、使发电脱碳、减少运输和工业排放以及扩大碳捕获技术的规模等方面的困难。研究结果表明,能源安全和经济增长在中国的政策重点中仍然超过脱碳。为了使其能源战略与碳中和相结合,中国必须采取具有约束力的政策,减少化石燃料补贴,促进可再生能源投资,并提高各部门的效率。本研究通过将中国的案例置于比较政治经济学的辩论中,并提供对发展中经济体在何种条件下能够协调增长与脱碳的见解,从而对文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Valorization of invasive water hyacinth through anaerobic digestion: A pathway to clean cooking fuel and environmental sustainability 通过厌氧消化入侵水葫芦的增值:清洁烹饪燃料和环境可持续性的途径
IF 4.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101899
Anudeb Ghosh , Aman Basu , Apurba Koley , Sreya Ghosh , Richik GhoshThakur , Binoy Kumar Show , Tapas Bagdi , Amit Kumar Hazra , Shibani Chaudhury , Srinivasan Balachandran
The rising cost of conventional energy sources has intensified the global search for clean and affordable energy alternatives. Water hyacinth (WH) has great potential as a renewable energy source due to its high growth rate and abundance in tropical regions. This study explores the social, economic, and environmental feasibility of utilizing water hyacinth for biogas production in rural India, with a dual objective of generating clean energy and organic fertilizer. A case study was conducted among 30 households in Goalpara village, West Bengal, an area moderately developed but severely affected by water hyacinth infestation. To evaluate the grassroot applicability of the proposed technology, a behavioural economics approach was adopted through a choice experiment assessing villagers' willingness to adopt biogas technology at a cost of INR 60 per month. This framework integrates technical assessment with social acceptability, providing a holistic perspective often missing in purely engineering-based studies. Biomethane potential was evaluated using Automatic Methane Potential Testing System (AMPTS) yielding methane approximately 148.6 ± 3.4 L/Kg-Volatile Solids for WH at an inoculum-to-substrate ratio of 2:1. The study also examined the availability of cow dung and the seasonal availability of water hyacinth to estimate sustainable biogas yield sufficient for replacing traditional firewood-based cooking. Results indicate that co-digestion of water hyacinth and cow dung could partially replace 33.7 tons of firewood annually, reducing an estimated 60.38 tons of CO2- equivalent emissions while producing about 700 kg of dry fertilizer for the participating households. Although technically and socially viable, the high initial installation cost remains a key barrier to widespread adoption. Nevertheless, the community's demonstrated willingness to pay and interest in replacing traditional fuels suggest a favourable environment for biogas-based clean cooking systems. By addressing SDG6 & SDG7 and contributing to carbon neutrality, the study offers a holistic scalable pathway towards sustainable rural energy transition and carbon-neutral growth.
常规能源成本的上升促使全球加紧寻找清洁和负担得起的替代能源。水葫芦生长速度快,在热带地区生长丰富,作为一种可再生能源具有很大的潜力。本研究探讨了在印度农村利用水葫芦生产沼气的社会、经济和环境可行性,其双重目标是产生清洁能源和有机肥。在西孟加拉邦戈帕拉村的30户家庭中进行了案例研究,这是一个中等发达但受水葫芦侵害严重的地区。为了评估拟议技术的基层适用性,采用行为经济学方法,通过选择实验评估村民以每月60卢比的成本采用沼气技术的意愿。该框架将技术评估与社会可接受性相结合,提供了一个在纯工程研究中经常缺失的整体视角。使用自动甲烷电位测试系统(AMPTS)评估生物甲烷电位,在接种物与底物的比例为2:1的情况下,为WH产生甲烷约为148.6±3.4 L/ kg挥发性固体。该研究还检查了牛粪的可用性和水葫芦的季节性可用性,以估计足以取代传统柴火烹饪的可持续沼气产量。结果表明,水葫芦和牛粪的共消化每年可部分替代33.7吨柴火,减少约60.38吨二氧化碳当量排放,同时为参与家庭生产约700公斤干肥料。虽然技术上和社会上可行,但高昂的初始安装成本仍然是广泛采用的主要障碍。然而,社区表现出的支付意愿和对替代传统燃料的兴趣表明,环境有利于以沼气为基础的清洁烹饪系统。通过解决可持续发展目标6和可持续发展目标7并促进碳中和,该研究为实现可持续农村能源转型和碳中和增长提供了一条可扩展的整体途径。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding long-term energy use in off-grid solar home systems in sub-Saharan Africa 了解撒哈拉以南非洲离网太阳能家庭系统的长期能源使用情况
IF 4.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101896
R. Perriment , V. Mergulhão , V. Kumtepeli , P. Parikh , M.D. McCulloch , D.A. Howey
Solar home systems provide low-cost electricity for rural off-grid communities. As access to them increases, more long-term data becomes available on how these systems are used throughout their lifetime. This work analyses a dataset of 1,000 systems across sub-Saharan Africa. Dynamic time warping clustering was applied to the load demand data from the systems, identifying five distinct archetypal daily load profiles and their occurrence across the dataset. Temporal analysis reveals a general decline in daily energy consumption over time, with 77% of households reducing their usage compared to the start of ownership. On average, there is a 33% decrease in daily consumption by the end of the second year compared to the peak demand, which occurs on the 96th day. Combining the load demand analysis with payment data shows that this decrease in energy consumption is observed even in households that are not experiencing economic hardship, indicating there are reasons beyond financial constraints for decreasing energy use once energy access is obtained.
家用太阳能系统为农村离网社区提供低成本电力。随着对这些系统访问的增加,可以获得更多关于这些系统在其整个生命周期中如何使用的长期数据。这项工作分析了撒哈拉以南非洲地区1000个系统的数据集。动态时间扭曲聚类应用于来自系统的负载需求数据,确定五种不同的原型日负载概况及其在数据集中的出现情况。时间分析显示,随着时间的推移,日常能源消耗普遍下降,77%的家庭与开始拥有房屋相比,减少了他们的使用量。平均而言,到第二年年底,与第96天的峰值需求相比,每日消费量下降了33%。将负荷需求分析与支付数据相结合表明,即使在没有经历经济困难的家庭中,也可以观察到能源消耗的减少,这表明一旦获得能源,就会有财政限制之外的原因减少能源使用。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating the viability of biogas as a sustainable transport fuel in Nigeria: Policy gaps, analytical insights, and strategic roadmap 评估尼日利亚沼气作为可持续运输燃料的可行性:政策差距、分析见解和战略路线图
IF 4.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101888
Micaiah Zhitsu Silas , Abhay Kumar Verma
The transport industry in Nigeria is still mainly dependent on fossil fuels making the industry very costly to operate, energy insecure, and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Its contribution to the transport sector is insignificant despite having an estimated 19billion m 3 of annual biogas potential in the form of agricultural and other organic residues. This paper analyses the feasibility of upgraded biogas (biomethane) as a renewable transport fuel in rural Nigeria based on secondary data, a comparative analysis, and the modelling of the cost and emission. Based on the 3m3/day of biogas that was upgraded to 1.8m3/day of biomethane, a payback period of 9.8 years of operation, an internal rate of return of 6 9, and a reduction of CO₂ emission by 85–90 % over diesel was simulated. The results show that although biomethane is currently uneconomical to produce, it is a technically and environmental viable alternative mode of transportation in the rural areas. Policy alignment, fiscal incentives, and modular upgrading infrastructure are the recommendations of the study that can speed up the process of changing Nigeria to a low-carbon, energy-secure transport system.
尼日利亚的运输业仍然主要依赖化石燃料,这使得该行业的运营成本非常高,能源不安全,并且温室气体排放增加。它对运输部门的贡献微不足道,尽管估计每年有190亿立方米的农业和其他有机残留物形式的沼气潜力。本文基于二手数据、比较分析以及成本和排放模型,分析了升级沼气(生物甲烷)在尼日利亚农村作为可再生运输燃料的可行性。以3立方米/天的沼气升级为1.8立方米/天的沼气为基础,模拟了运行9.8年的投资回收期和6.9的内部收益率,与柴油相比,二氧化碳排放量减少了85 ~ 90%。结果表明,虽然目前生物甲烷的生产不经济,但在农村地区,它是一种技术上和环境上可行的替代运输方式。政策调整、财政激励和模块化升级基础设施是该研究的建议,可以加快尼日利亚向低碳、能源安全运输系统转变的进程。
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引用次数: 0
Techno-economic assessment of battery systems in the PV self-consumption without surpluses in the residential tariff of the Dominican Republic 多米尼加共和国居民电价中无盈余光伏自用电池系统的技术经济评价
IF 4.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101898
Edwin Garabitos-Lara , Alexander Vallejo-Díaz , Carlos Napoleón Pereyra-Mariñez , Idalberto Herrera-Moya
This study develops a techno-economic model to evaluate the feasibility of battery energy storage systems (BESS) integrated into photovoltaic (PV) self-consumption schemes without surplus injection under the Dominican Republic's residential tariff. Hourly consumption data from three real households were analyzed, defining three representative demand levels—low, medium, and high. System sizing was optimized by maximizing net present value (NPV) while assessing internal rate of return (IRR), self-consumption ratio (SCR), self-sufficiency ratio (SSR), levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and a proposed parity index (PI). Results indicate that PV self-consumption is profitable only for high-demand users (≥ 701 kWh month−1), achieving grid parity (PI ≈ 1.0; IRR ≈ 10 %). Battery integration raises SCR from 73.4 to 98.3 % and SSR from 34 to 45 %, however reduces profitability because of higher capital investment. Profitability is highly sensitive to the hourly demand profile: redistributing identical daily consumption improved NPV by up to 16 %. Removing the residential subsidy slightly enhances profitability for low- and medium-demand users, while high-demand users lose competitiveness. A 30 % reduction in battery cost increases NPV by 18 % for high-demand profiles but remains insufficient for others. These results confirm that PV + BESS are technically and economically viable for high-demand consumers, strengthening energy autonomy and resilience in countries with similar tariffs and solar resources.
本研究开发了一个技术经济模型,以评估在多米尼加共和国居民电价下,电池储能系统(BESS)集成到光伏(PV)自消费计划中而没有剩余注入的可行性。我们分析了三个真实家庭的每小时消费数据,定义了三个具有代表性的需求水平——低、中、高。通过最大化净现值(NPV)来优化系统规模,同时评估内部收益率(IRR)、自用率(SCR)、自给率(SSR)、平准化能源成本(LCOE)和提议的平价指数(PI)。结果表明,光伏自用仅对高需求用户(≥701 kWh月- 1)有利,实现电网平价(PI≈1.0;IRR≈10%)。电池集成将SCR从73.4提高到98.3%,SSR从34%提高到45%,但由于更高的资本投资,降低了盈利能力。盈利能力对小时需求曲线高度敏感:重新分配相同的日消费可使净现值提高16%。取消居民补贴略微提高了中低需求用户的盈利能力,而高需求用户则失去了竞争力。电池成本降低30%,对高需求车型的净现值增加18%,但对其他车型仍然不够。这些结果证实,对于高需求的消费者来说,光伏+ BESS在技术和经济上都是可行的,可以增强具有类似关税和太阳能资源的国家的能源自主权和弹性。
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引用次数: 0
CMIP6 climate change and wind environment impacts on cold-region residential energy and thermal comfort: A case study of Harbin 气候变化和风环境对寒区居民能源和热舒适的影响——以哈尔滨市为例
IF 4.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101885
Jingyi Mu , Yimeng Feng , Dazhi Yang , Guoming Yang
The energy consumption of urban residential buildings and occupant thermal comfort are significantly affected by climate change driven by excessive carbon emissions. However, these impacts remain understudied in cold urban areas. This study examined residential buildings in Harbin, China, to evaluate the effects of future climate change and urban wind environment on energy consumption and thermal comfort. Meteorological data for Harbin were simulated for 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060 under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 carbon emission scenarios. The urban wind environment was analyzed using Phoenics, and EnergyPlus simulated the impact on building energy consumption and thermal comfort. Results showed an increase of 3.96 °C in annual average air temperature under SSP585 by 2060 compared to the typical meteorological year, with SSP245 and SSP126 showing increases of 2.27 °C and 1.57 °C. Cooling energy demand was projected to rise by 142.5 % and 134.0 % for multi-story and high-rise buildings under SSP585, while heating demand dropped by 20.3 % and 15.8 %. Thermal comfort exhibited pronounced changes, as the urban wind environment improving winter comfort but exacerbating summer discomfort, leading to a 1.33 % increase in cooling demand and a 1.68 % reduction in heating demand. This study emphasized the need for Harbin to adopt a greener development path beyond SSP126 while addressing health risks from winter temperature drops and the environmental impacts of increased cooling demand. The shading effect of urban vegetation can effectively mitigate the increased cooling energy consumption caused by the wind environment during summer. These results provided a foundation for policy development in cold urban areas.
过度碳排放导致的气候变化对城市居住建筑能耗和居住者热舒适的影响显著。然而,这些影响在寒冷的城市地区仍未得到充分研究。本研究以哈尔滨市住宅建筑为研究对象,评估未来气候变化和城市风环境对能耗和热舒适的影响。对哈尔滨市在SSP126、SSP245和SSP585碳排放情景下2030、2040、2050和2060年的气象数据进行了模拟。利用Phoenics软件对城市风环境进行了分析,并利用EnergyPlus软件模拟了风对建筑能耗和热舒适的影响。结果表明,到2060年,SSP585下的年平均气温较典型气象年升高3.96℃,其中SSP245和SSP126分别升高2.27℃和1.57℃。根据SSP585,多层和高层建筑的制冷能源需求预计分别上升142.5%和134.0%,而供暖需求则分别下降20.3%和15.8%。热舒适表现出明显的变化,城市风环境改善了冬季舒适度,但加剧了夏季不适,导致制冷需求增加1.33%,供暖需求减少1.68%。本研究强调,哈尔滨需要在SSP126之外采取更绿色的发展道路,同时解决冬季气温下降带来的健康风险和制冷需求增加对环境的影响。城市植被的遮阳作用可以有效缓解夏季风环境带来的制冷能耗增加。这些结果为寒冷城市地区的政策制定提供了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Stakeholder analysis of perceptions of hydrogen cooperation with Japan in India 利益相关者对印度与日本氢能合作看法的分析
IF 4.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101884
Takuma Otaki, Rajib Shaw
India and Japan are advancing hydrogen technologies, with Japan leading in areas salient to India (ammonia combustion, hydrogen-based iron reduction, heavy-duty vehicles, and water electrolyzers), making bilateral collaboration particularly valuable and raising the prospect of an India–Japan hydrogen value chain, including exports. Japan is also preparing to import hydrogen through grant-based schemes initiated in October 2024. This study maps and compares stakeholders in both countries using official documents, then conducts semi-structured interviews (11 of 12 targeted decision-makers across companies, research organizations, universities, and a conglomerate) to examine three themes: collaboration with Japan, export feasibility, and diffusion of hydrogen technologies in India. Stakeholders held moderate expectations for Japanese technology licensing (lower than for the United States) and highlighted slow decision-making by Japanese firms; they emphasized local manufacturing in India and the need for Japanese capital to leverage India's strong human talent amid infrastructure and funding constraints. Intellectual property protection was viewed as adequate, suggesting cooperation within the current framework. Medium- to long-term exports to Japan were considered feasible, underpinned by renewable deployment outpacing domestic demand and stable policy support; ammonia was favored as the carrier, whereas liquid hydrogen drew cost and handling concerns. Diffusion in India is expected to take at least a decade, with early uptake in refining, fertilizer, syngas, and iron, and government agencies pivotal via incentives, diffusion support, and public awareness. Key challenges—ecosystem development, cost competitiveness, safety, and demand creation—point to priorities in human capital, regulation, and finance, where Japanese experience could catalyze collaboration.
印度和日本正在推进氢技术,日本在对印度具有重要意义的领域(氨燃烧、氢基铁还原、重型汽车和水电解槽)处于领先地位,这使得双边合作特别有价值,并提高了印日氢价值链(包括出口)的前景。日本还准备通过2024年10月启动的赠款计划进口氢气。本研究使用官方文件绘制并比较了两国的利益相关者,然后进行了半结构化访谈(公司、研究机构、大学和企业集团的12位目标决策者中的11位),以研究三个主题:与日本的合作、出口可行性和氢技术在印度的推广。利益相关者对日本技术许可持温和期望(低于美国),并强调日本公司决策缓慢;他们强调印度的本地制造业,以及在基础设施和资金受限的情况下,日本需要资本来利用印度强大的人才。知识产权保护被认为是充分的,建议在现有框架内进行合作。对日本的中长期出口被认为是可行的,因为可再生能源的部署超过了国内需求和稳定的政策支持;氨作为载体受到青睐,而液氢则引起了成本和处理方面的担忧。印度的推广预计至少需要10年时间,炼油、化肥、合成气和铁等行业将率先采用,政府机构将通过激励措施、推广支持和公众意识发挥关键作用。关键挑战——生态系统发展、成本竞争力、安全和需求创造——指向人力资本、监管和金融领域的优先事项,日本的经验可以在这些领域促进合作。
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引用次数: 0
The greenhouse gases emissions and environmental impact profiles for bio-electromobility alternatives in Brazilian urban buses 巴西城市公交车的生物电动交通替代品的温室气体排放和环境影响概况
IF 4.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101887
Marcelo Antunes Gauto , Tamar Roitman , Everton Lopes , Rafael Silva Capaz , Gonçalo Amarante Guimarães Pereira , Guilherme Pessoa Nogueira
The global transport sector remains a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, urging the need for low-carbon pathways that go beyond full fleet electrification. In countries like Brazil, where biofuel production is mature and the electricity matrix is relatively clean, bio-electromobility can offer an effective alternative for decarbonizing urban public transport. This study assesses the environmental performance of seven scenarios composed by different bus types and energy use — conventional diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG), biomethane (bioCNG), hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) from soybean oil and from tallow, in internal combustion engine buses (ICEB), hybrid buses (HEB) and battery electric buses (BEB) configurations — through a cradle-to-grave Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The analysis covers midpoint Global Warming Potential and endpoint damage categories: Ecosystem Quality, Human Health, and Natural Resources. Results show that buses powered by residue-based HVO or bioCNG in both internal combustion and hybrid configurations outperform BEBs in several environmental impact categories, challenging the narrative that “zero-emission” buses are always the optimal solution when upstream and mid-life emissions are considered. Limitations include data assumptions, partial regionalization, and infrastructure constraints that may affect large-scale deployment. The findings emphasize the need for diversified public policies that integrate biofuels and electrification, leveraging Brazil's biomass potential while expanding charging infrastructure sustainably. This study contributes to closing knowledge gaps in bio-electromobility's role and provides decision-makers with robust evidence to guide investments and regulatory frameworks toward a truly low-carbon urban transport system.
全球交通运输部门仍然是温室气体排放的主要来源,迫切需要在车队全面电气化之外寻找低碳途径。在巴西等生物燃料生产成熟、电力基质相对清洁的国家,生物电动交通可以为城市公共交通的脱碳提供有效的替代方案。本研究通过从摇篮到坟墓的生命周期评估(LCA),评估了由不同类型和能源使用组成的七种方案的环境性能,包括内燃机客车(ICEB)、混合动力客车(HEB)和纯电动客车(BEB)配置中的传统柴油、压缩天然气(CNG)、生物甲烷(bioCNG)、大豆油和牛脂加氢处理植物油(HVO)。该分析涵盖了全球变暖潜势的中点和端点损害类别:生态系统质量、人类健康和自然资源。结果表明,在内燃和混合动力配置中,由基于残留物的HVO或生物柴油驱动的公交车在几个环境影响类别中都优于beb,挑战了“零排放”公交车始终是考虑上游和中期排放的最佳解决方案的说法。限制包括数据假设、部分区域化和可能影响大规模部署的基础设施约束。研究结果强调,需要制定多元化的公共政策,将生物燃料和电气化结合起来,利用巴西的生物质潜力,同时可持续地扩大充电基础设施。本研究有助于缩小关于生物电动汽车作用的知识差距,并为决策者提供有力的证据,以指导投资和监管框架,实现真正的低碳城市交通系统。
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引用次数: 0
Predictive model for sustainable exploitation of geothermal resources in Africa: The case of Olkaria geothermal field 非洲地热资源可持续开发的预测模型:以Olkaria地热田为例
IF 4.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101886
C. Zuffi , D. Fiaschi , X.S. Musonye , H.S. Mukhongo , M. Nafula , I.P. Da Silva
Geothermal energy is a crucial renewable resource for a sustainable future, especially in African nations cut by the Rift Valley, which holds vast untapped potential. However, high upfront costs and development risks remain key challenges. This study introduces a simplified model calibrated with real data from Kenya's Olkaria geothermal field. The model enables rapid preliminary assessments of both technical and economic performance, requiring minimal input data. Additionally, it incorporates a Life Cycle Assessment to evaluate environmental impacts, an aspect rarely explored in African geothermal studies. The research analyses various technological configurations, including Single Flash, Double Flash, and Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) systems, aiming to improve efficiency without additional drilling. Findings show that integrating an ORC with existing flash systems can boost energy output by up to 20.1 %, with only a modest rise in the Levelized Cost of Electricity. Compared to the current Olkaria IV setup, hybrid systems demonstrated lower carbon emissions and reduced material resource use per energy output. Results confirm that ORC integration offers the most sustainable pathway for developing high-temperature geothermal resources in the East African Rift. This approach balances energy efficiency, economic feasibility, and environmental impact, providing valuable guidance for future power plant development in regulatory-constrained settings. This work is fully consistent with the objectives of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 7 and 13.
地热能是可持续未来的重要可再生资源,尤其是在被东非大裂谷隔开的非洲国家,那里蕴藏着巨大的未开发潜力。然而,高昂的前期成本和开发风险仍然是主要的挑战。本研究引入了一个简化模型,该模型使用肯尼亚Olkaria地热田的真实数据进行校准。该模型能够对技术和经济绩效进行快速初步评估,所需的输入数据最少。此外,它还结合了生命周期评估来评价环境影响,这是非洲地热研究中很少探讨的一个方面。该研究分析了各种技术配置,包括单闪、双闪和有机朗肯循环(ORC)系统,旨在提高效率,而无需额外的钻井。研究结果表明,将ORC与现有的闪存系统集成可以将能量输出提高20.1%,而平均电力成本仅略有上升。与目前的Olkaria IV装置相比,混合动力系统显示出更低的碳排放,减少了每能量输出的材料资源消耗。结果证实,ORC整合为东非裂谷高温地热资源开发提供了最可持续的途径。这种方法平衡了能源效率、经济可行性和环境影响,为监管受限的未来发电厂发展提供了有价值的指导。这项工作完全符合可持续发展目标7和13的目标。
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引用次数: 0
Peer-to-peer energy and rural electrification: Evidence from solar microgrids in Bangladesh 点对点能源和农村电气化:来自孟加拉国太阳能微电网的证据
IF 4.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101881
Christian Zürpel , Sebastian Groh
Around 800 million people globally do not have access to electricity — most of those affected reside in rural areas in the Global South. The challenge of rural electrification is particularly pronounced in Africa, though pockets of South Asia are similarly afflicted. In these areas, national grid extension is often prohibitively expensive owing to geography. To allow for the reaping of documented benefits bestowed by access to electricity, and to retain the prospect of reaching Sustainable Development Goal 7 by 2030 (access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all), affordably implementable alternatives to national grid extensions require exploring. To date, policymakers around the world have, however, paid comparably little attention to off-grid solutions suited to local conditions, such as microgrids powered by sustainable sources of energy, despite the potential cost- and time-savings in rural electrification.
Analyzing a unique, newly constructed data set covering two years of peer-to-peer trading data from 104 solar-powered microgrids across Bangladesh yields important lessons on aspects to consider in designing and efficiently leveraging such microgrids in electrifying rural areas. Linear regression analysis results illustrate, for both linear probability and ordinary least squares models, (i) the importance of sufficient solar power generation capacity in a microgrid, with backup power supply by so-called micro-utilities constituting an important tool to enhance microgrid performance; (ii) the composition and geographic setup of microgrids are crucial, with ideally no households in a given location opting out of connecting to the microgrid and a sufficient dispersion of production capacity to meet demand close by, minimizing transmission losses; (iii) electrically run appliances are a precondition for the intensive-margin utility of a microgrid, allowing for peer-to-peer energy sellers to capitalize on their investments in solar panels and batteries.
These findings and their interpretation underscore the crucial role ascribed to complementary services by the literature. Such services range from support in financing microgrid infrastructure and appliance purchases to skills training aimed at buttressing productive-use uptake of newly-gained electricity access. Policy support in establishing microgrids furthermore proves to be a worthwhile long-term endeavor. Even the arrival of national grid connections at numerous of the solar microgrids investigated did not diminish their utility owing to the need for backup power and these microgrids’ continued capacity to provide clean energy reliably.
全球约有8亿人用不上电,其中大多数受影响的人居住在全球南方的农村地区。农村电气化的挑战在非洲尤其明显,尽管南亚的一些地区也受到同样的困扰。在这些地区,由于地理位置的原因,国家电网的扩展往往非常昂贵。为了获得电力供应所带来的有记录的好处,并保持到2030年实现可持续发展目标7(人人获得负担得起的、可靠的、可持续的现代能源)的前景,需要探索可负担得起、可实施的替代方案,以取代国家电网扩建。然而,迄今为止,尽管农村电气化可能节省成本和时间,但世界各地的政策制定者对适合当地情况的离网解决方案(例如由可持续能源供电的微电网)的关注相对较少。分析一个独特的、新建的数据集,涵盖了孟加拉国104个太阳能微电网两年的点对点交易数据,得出了设计和有效利用此类微电网在农村地区电气化方面需要考虑的重要经验教训。线性回归分析结果表明,对于线性概率模型和普通最小二乘模型,(i)充足的太阳能发电能力在微电网中的重要性,通过所谓的微公用事业提供备用电源是提高微电网性能的重要工具;(ii)微电网的组成和地理设置至关重要,理想情况下,在特定地点没有家庭选择不连接微电网,并且生产能力充分分散以满足附近的需求,最大限度地减少传输损失;(iii)电动设备是微电网实现高边际效用的先决条件,它允许点对点能源销售商利用他们在太阳能电池板和电池上的投资获利。这些发现及其解释强调了文献中补充服务的关键作用。这些服务包括资助微电网基础设施和设备购买,以及旨在支持生产利用新获得的电力的技能培训。建立微电网的政策支持进一步证明是值得长期努力的。即使在许多被调查的太阳能微电网中实现了国家电网连接,也没有减少它们的效用,因为它们需要备用电源,而且这些微电网仍有能力可靠地提供清洁能源。
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Energy for Sustainable Development
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