Energy for Sustainable Development最新文献_第3页

Integrated assessment of source separation programs coupled with waste-to-energy systems across diverse country income levels 综合评估不同国家收入水平的源分离方案与废物转化能源系统

IF 4.9 2区工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy for Sustainable Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101912

Mohamed Dafalla , Abdulrahman Abdeljaber , Mohamed Abdallah , Wamidh Alsalem

Integrated solid waste management (ISWM) based on waste valorization represents a shift toward more sustainable and resource-efficient practices. This study examined the effect of source separation programs, two bins (wet-dry (WD) and recyclable-nonrecyclable (R-nR)) and three bins, on biochemical, thermochemical, and hybrid ISWM strategies. A comparative techno-economic and environmental assessment was conducted to evaluate the proposed strategies in countries with various economic standards: high-, upper-middle-, lower-middle-, and low-income. The incineration-based strategies achieved the highest energy recovery, ranging from 430 to 708 kWh per ton of collected waste. On the other hand, the WD-AD and 3B-INC strategies had the lowest (37–81 kg CO₂-eq per ton) and highest (140–208 kg CO₂-eq per ton) carbon footprint, respectively, across all income levels. Moreover, the two- and three-bin hybrid strategies were the most profitable for all income levels. Overall, the WD-hybrid strategy was the optimum scenario for high-income countries, whereas the biochemical scenarios were the most eco-efficient for middle- and low-income countries. Regional validation was performed using country-specific inputs, confirming the applicability of the modeled outcomes across diverse economic conditions. The findings underscore the importance of tailoring ISWM strategies to various income levels, among other factors, providing valuable insights into sustainable and eco-efficient waste management practices worldwide.

基于废物价值的固体废物综合管理（ISWM）代表着向更可持续和资源效率更高的做法的转变。本研究考察了源分离方案，两箱（干湿式（WD）和可回收-不可回收（R-nR））和三箱对生物化学、热化学和混合ISWM策略的影响。进行了一项比较技术经济和环境评估，以评价具有不同经济标准的国家的拟议战略：高、中高、中低和低收入。以焚烧为基础的策略实现了最高的能源回收，每吨收集的废物从430到708千瓦时不等。另一方面，在所有收入水平中，WD-AD和3B-INC策略的碳足迹分别最低（每吨37-81千克二氧化碳当量）和最高（每吨140-208千克二氧化碳当量）。此外，两箱和三箱混合策略在所有收入水平下都是最有利可图的。总体而言，对高收入国家而言，生物混合战略是最佳方案，而对中低收入国家而言，生物化学方案是最具生态效率的方案。使用特定国家的输入进行区域验证，确认模型结果在不同经济条件下的适用性。研究结果强调了根据不同收入水平调整ISWM战略的重要性，以及其他因素，为全球可持续和生态高效的废物管理实践提供了宝贵的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Decoupling and decomposition analysis of carbon emission in case of Indian manufacturing sector 以印度制造业为例的碳排放解耦分解分析

IF 4.9 2区工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy for Sustainable Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101903

Himja Sharma , Balakrushna Padhi , Badri Narayan Rath

This study evaluates the evolving dynamics of energy intensity and carbon emissions patterns in India's manufacturing sector. To do so, the study uses Tapio decoupling and LMDI decomposition to decouple and decompose carbon emission across different states and disaggregated industry of Indian manufacturing. The findings of this study indicate weak decoupling at the aggregate level for all three categories of high-capital-intensive, low-capital-intensive, and labour-intensive industries, with overall industrial carbon emissions rising but at a decreasing rate. There is partial progress towards sustainable industrialization as the rate of carbon emission growth has decreased in the SDG era compared to the MDG era, and industries have experienced expansionary negative decoupling, marking a rise in emissions. The decomposition results underline the dominant effect of output growth in driving the emissions, both at the industry and state levels. Further, using both machine learning and deep learning models, such as MLP and CNN-LSTM, this study predicts CO₂ emissions until 2030. From policy perspective balancing manufacturing sector's growth expansion with proper attention to carbon emission decoupling and decomposition framework is necessary to attain environmental sustainability in the long run.

本研究评估了印度制造业能源强度和碳排放模式的演变动态。为此，本研究采用Tapio解耦和LMDI分解对印度制造业不同邦和分类行业的碳排放进行解耦和分解。研究结果表明，高资本密集型产业、低资本密集型产业和劳动密集型产业总体上存在弱脱钩现象，总体工业碳排放呈上升趋势，但呈下降趋势。与千年发展目标时代相比，可持续发展目标时代的碳排放增长率有所下降，可持续工业化取得了部分进展，工业经历了扩张性的负脱钩，这标志着排放量的增加。分解结果突显出，无论是在行业层面还是在国家层面，产出增长在推动排放方面的主导作用。此外，本研究使用机器学习和深度学习模型，如MLP和CNN-LSTM，预测了到2030年的二氧化碳排放量。从政策角度看，平衡制造业增长扩张与适当关注碳排放脱钩和分解框架是实现长期环境可持续性的必要条件。

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引用次数: 0

Agri-photovoltaics in India: Geospatial suitability for sustainable water–energy–food nexus solutions 印度农业光伏：可持续水-能源-粮食关系解决方案的地理空间适应性

IF 4.9 2区工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy for Sustainable Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101915

Kedar Mehta , Florian Betz

Agri-Photovoltaics or Agri-PV offers a strategic opportunity for India to jointly address rising energy demand, water scarcity, and agricultural pressures within the Water–Energy–Food nexus. This study develops the novel integrated, nationwide framework combining (i) a GIS-based technical suitability analysis, (ii) state-wise Agri-PV electricity-generation potential, and (iii) a composite sustainability assessment. Technical suitability was mapped using datasets on land cover, solar irradiation, slope, temperature, wind speed, and grid proximity, resulting in suitability values ranging from 0.35 to 0.95. The highest suitability values occur in Rajasthan (0.95), Gujarat (0.93), Haryana (0.82), Punjab (0.80), and Madhya Pradesh (~0.78–0.80), while the northeastern and Himalayan states exhibit the lowest values due to steep terrain and high rainfall. Using technically suitable agricultural land and state-specific solar yields, the estimated Agri-PV electricity-generation potential exceeds 4000 GWh/GWp in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh. To integrate broader feasibility factors, socio-economic and water-resource indicators were combined with technical suitability to develop the Agri-PV Sustainability Potential Index, which ranges from 0.53 to 0.81. Rajasthan (0.81), Gujarat (0.79), Punjab (0.74), Haryana (0.74), Madhya Pradesh (0.72), and Maharashtra (0.72) rank highest. This framework provides a robust, policy-relevant foundation for guiding Agri-PV deployment and supporting India's clean-energy and climate-resilience goals. The findings also contribute to advancing India's clean-energy and climate-resilience goals, consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals 2, 6, 7, and 13.

农业光伏（Agri-PV）为印度提供了一个战略机遇，可以共同应对不断增长的能源需求、水资源短缺和水-能源-粮食关系中的农业压力。本研究开发了一种新型的综合全国框架，结合了(i)基于gis的技术适用性分析，（ii）各州农业光伏发电潜力，以及（iii）复合可持续性评估。利用土地覆盖、太阳辐照度、坡度、温度、风速和网格接近度等数据集绘制技术适宜性图，适宜性值为0.35 ~ 0.95。适宜性值最高的是拉贾斯坦邦（0.95）、古吉拉特邦（0.93）、哈里亚纳邦（0.82）、旁遮普（0.80）和中央邦（~ 0.78-0.80），而东北部和喜马拉雅邦由于地形陡峭和降雨量大，适宜性值最低。在北方邦、马哈拉施特拉邦、拉贾斯坦邦和中央邦，利用技术上合适的农业用地和邦特有的太阳能产量，预计农业光伏发电潜力将超过4000千兆瓦时/千兆瓦普。为了整合更广泛的可行性因素，将社会经济和水资源指标与技术适用性相结合，制定了农业光伏可持续发展潜力指数，其范围为0.53至0.81。拉贾斯坦邦（0.81）、古吉拉特邦（0.79）、旁遮普（0.74）、哈里亚纳邦（0.74）、中央邦（0.72）和马哈拉施特拉邦（0.72）排名最高。该框架为指导农业光伏部署和支持印度的清洁能源和气候适应目标提供了坚实的政策基础。研究结果还有助于推进印度的清洁能源和气候适应目标，与可持续发展目标2、6、7和13相一致。

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引用次数: 0

Electricity supply in isolated systems in the Brazilian Amazon: Challenges and opportunities 巴西亚马逊地区孤立系统的电力供应：挑战与机遇

IF 4.9 2区工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy for Sustainable Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101902

Meiriele Alvarenga Cumplido , André Rodrigues Gonçalves , Felipe Husadel Poyer , Fernando Ramos Martins , Rodrigo Santos Costa , Evandro Albiach Branco , Ricardo Rüther , Enio Bueno Pereira

Most of the isolated communities in the Brazilian Amazon are supplied with electricity through isolated (off-grid) generation-distribution systems that use oil and gas, resulting in a high-emissions electricity mix. These systems incur significant costs due to fuel prices and complex transport logistics, and require subsidies to bring electricity prices in line with those in other regions of Brazil. This study examined 149 energy systems across the Amazon region, identifying 10 representative cases through cluster analysis. Two systems in the state of Amazonas were explored in greater depth: Careiro da Várzea (8.8 MW, 0.35 US$/kWh, consuming approximately 350,000 liters of diesel per month) and Rio Preto da Eva (14 MW, 0.45 US$/kWh, consuming about 1.65 million liters of diesel per month). Insights gained from on-site visits enriched and expanded upon the findings from the literature, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the regional energy landscape. Key conclusions include the recognition of the multiple costs associated with isolated systems and the realization that access to electricity, while essential, cannot alone drive significant socioeconomic development. Investments should prioritize the use of local renewable energy resources, take into account the distinctive characteristics of the region, community needs, and be integrated into comprehensive development plans. This approach can ensure affordable, reliable, and sustainable access to electricity while promoting regional development.

巴西亚马逊地区大多数孤立的社区都是通过孤立的（离网）发电配电系统供电的，该系统使用石油和天然气，导致高排放的电力组合。由于燃料价格和复杂的运输物流，这些系统产生了巨大的成本，并且需要补贴才能使电价与巴西其他地区的电价保持一致。本研究考察了亚马逊地区的149个能源系统，通过聚类分析确定了10个具有代表性的案例。亚马逊州的两个系统进行了更深入的探索：Careiro da Várzea（8.8兆瓦，0.35美元/千瓦时，每月消耗约35万升柴油）和里约热内卢Preto da Eva（14兆瓦，0.45美元/千瓦时，每月消耗约165万升柴油）。从实地考察中获得的见解丰富和扩展了文献中的发现，使人们对区域能源格局有了更全面的了解。主要结论包括认识到与孤立系统相关的多重成本，并认识到获得电力虽然至关重要，但不能单独推动重大的社会经济发展。投资应优先利用当地可再生能源，考虑到该地区的独特特点和社区需要，并纳入综合发展计划。这种方法可以在促进区域发展的同时，确保负担得起、可靠和可持续的电力供应。

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引用次数: 0

Optimizing photovoltaic deployment in Yunnan: Climate suitability and energy potential assessment 云南光伏优化部署：气候适宜性和能源潜力评估

IF 4.9 2区工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy for Sustainable Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101900

Mingda Zhang , Jia Wu , Fei Liu

Yunnan, China, has abundant solar energy resources, positioning it as a pivotal region for photovoltaic (PV) development. However, land management restrictions and complex weather conditions pose challenges to the establishment and operation of PV power stations. This study developed a climate suitability framework using the analytic hierarchy process for PV development in Yunnan, based on 10 climatic factors and 5 land use factors linked closely to PV power efficiency. The results indicated that central and southwestern regions, accounting for approximately 45.1 % of Yunnan Province, exhibit excellent suitability for PV deployment, particularly Xishuangbanna, Lincang, Chuxiong, Yuxi, and Pu’er. Additionally, when considering five land use constraint factors, 48.9 % of Yunnan's area was excluded. Notably, the analysis did not establish a strong relationship between climate suitability for PV development and solar energy generation potential (SEGP) due to topographic heterogeneity and microclimate variability at the provincial scale, underscoring the necessity for more integrated planning approaches. Coupled analysis using the local Moran's I indicated that areas with high climatic suitability and high SEGP are concentrated predominantly in central and southwestern regions of Yunnan, accounting for 20 % of the province's PV resource development zones. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) further confirmed this spatial heterogeneous distribution of SEGP across Yunnan. Compared with actual electricity consumption, a substantial surplus of PV power potential was identified across 16 counties of Yunnan. These findings highlight the considerable potential of PV energy generation to promote clean energy transition and contribute to carbon neutrality in Yunnan, providing a foundation for sustainable energy planning and policy formulation.

Key points

45.1 % of Yunnan, especially central-southwest, is highly suitable for solar power due to optimal climate conditions

20 % of feasible areas combine high suitability and energy potential, ideal for large-scale solar stations.

Theoretically, Yunnan possesses substantial potential for photovoltaic development.

中国云南拥有丰富的太阳能资源，是光伏产业发展的枢纽地区。然而，土地管理的限制和复杂的天气条件给光伏电站的建设和运行带来了挑战。本研究基于与光伏发电效率密切相关的10个气候因子和5个土地利用因子，运用层次分析法构建了云南光伏发展的气候适宜性框架。结果表明，云南中部和西南部地区（约占全省面积的45.1%）具有较好的光伏适宜性，特别是西双版纳、临沧、楚雄、玉溪和普洱。此外，在考虑5个土地利用约束因素时，云南48.9%的面积被排除在外。值得注意的是，由于地形异质性和省尺度的小气候变化，该分析没有建立光伏发展的气候适宜性与太阳能发电潜力（SEGP）之间的紧密关系，这强调了更综合规划方法的必要性。局部Moran’s I耦合分析表明，高气候适宜性和高SEGP的地区主要集中在云南中部和西南部，占全省光伏资源开发区的20%。地理加权回归（GWR）进一步证实了云南地区SEGP的空间异质性。与实际用电量相比，云南16个县的光伏发电潜力存在较大盈余。这些发现凸显了光伏发电在促进云南清洁能源转型和实现碳中和方面的巨大潜力，为可持续能源规划和政策制定提供了基础。云南有45.1%的地区，特别是西南中部，气候条件较好，适合太阳能发电，20%的可行地区适宜性高，能源潜力大，适合建设大型太阳能电站。理论上，云南具有相当大的光伏发展潜力。

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引用次数: 0

To mobilize private investment in island off-grid energy systems requires guarantees for electricity demand 要调动岛屿离网能源系统的私人投资，就必须保证电力需求

IF 4.9 2区工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy for Sustainable Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101904

Christoph Samba HENRICH , Antoine De Ramon N'YEURT , Hilda WAQA-SAKITI

Energy access remains a challenge in Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) and has so far shown limited private sector engagement to address this challenge, particularly in small and remote islands. Using as a case study in Fiji beyond its 3 largest islands, this paper reports a survey of relevant potential private suppliers of rural electrification in small island contexts. This study identifies and quantifies risk drivers perceived by such suppliers. As a specific example, we consider the possibility of a (hypothetical) village to take up a village photovoltaic system of 50 to 150 kW. The study identifies the largest driver of financing costs of such a potential commercial supplier is the risks arising from limitations of customers paying for electricity. This requires an average equity return requirement ranging between 15 and 25 %. Nevertheless, even after derisking, generation costs remain high, and access to debt financing is uncertain due to persistent revenue risks. In response, this study models a demand guarantee mechanism which allows developers receiving a minimum revenue stream regardless of fluctuations in electricity demand or payment defaults. The private sector is not currently willing to invest in rural electrification under any conditions, particularly in small islands as they are characterized by limited size, isolation, small markets, uncertain population trends, and limited ability to shift or grow demand. This study shows that a minimum demand guarantee can be essential to mobilize private capital for rural electrification in small islands as it secures future revenue streams, by various mechanisms to simplify the tender process, enhance bankability and contribute to service continuity.

在太平洋岛屿国家和地区（PICTs），能源获取仍然是一个挑战，迄今为止，私营部门在应对这一挑战方面的参与有限，特别是在小岛屿和偏远岛屿。本文以斐济的三个最大岛屿为例，对小岛屿农村电气化的相关潜在私人供应商进行了调查。本研究确定并量化了这些供应商感知到的风险驱动因素。作为一个具体的例子，我们考虑一个（假设的）村庄采用50至150千瓦的村庄光伏系统的可能性。该研究发现，此类潜在商业供应商融资成本的最大驱动因素是客户支付电费的限制所带来的风险。这要求平均股本回报率要求在15%至25%之间。然而，即使在降低风险之后，发电成本仍然很高，而且由于持续的收入风险，获得债务融资的机会也不确定。为此，本研究建立了一个需求保障机制模型，该机制允许开发商在电力需求波动或支付违约的情况下获得最低收益流。私营部门目前在任何情况下都不愿意投资农村电气化，特别是在小岛屿，因为它们的特点是面积有限、孤立、市场小、人口趋势不确定以及改变或增加需求的能力有限。这项研究表明，最低需求保证对于调动私人资本促进小岛屿农村电气化至关重要，因为它可以通过各种机制简化招标程序、提高可融资性和促进服务连续性，确保未来的收入来源。

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引用次数: 0

Balancing growth and decarbonization: Political economy dynamics in China's 2060 carbon neutrality strategy 平衡增长与脱碳：中国2060年碳中和战略的政治经济动态

IF 4.9 2区工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy for Sustainable Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101897

Umair Khan , Shouwen Wang

China's pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 necessitates a fundamental transformation of its energy system; yet coal remains the dominant energy source. This paper investigates the political economy of China's energy transition, focusing on institutional and technical constraints. Drawing on policy analysis, relevant literature, and qualitative interviews with nine energy experts, the study identifies structural barriers that hinder the shift toward clean energy. Institutional challenges include fragmented governance, insufficient financing mechanisms, and a lack of cross-sectoral coordination. Technical challenges arise from the difficulty of reducing energy intensity, decarbonizing power generation, cutting emissions in transportation and industry, and scaling carbon capture technologies. Findings suggest that energy security and economic growth continue to outweigh decarbonization in China's policy priorities. To realign its energy strategy with carbon neutrality, China must adopt binding policies, reduce fossil fuel subsidies, foster renewable investment, and enhance efficiency across sectors. This research contributes to the literature by situating China's case within comparative political economy debates and offering insights into the conditions under which developing economies can reconcile growth with decarbonization.

中国承诺到2060年实现碳中和，这就需要对其能源体系进行根本性转变；然而，煤炭仍然是主要的能源来源。本文研究了中国能源转型的政治经济学，重点关注制度和技术约束。根据政策分析、相关文献和对九位能源专家的定性访谈，该研究确定了阻碍向清洁能源转变的结构性障碍。体制方面的挑战包括治理分散、融资机制不足以及缺乏跨部门协调。技术挑战来自于降低能源强度、使发电脱碳、减少运输和工业排放以及扩大碳捕获技术的规模等方面的困难。研究结果表明，能源安全和经济增长在中国的政策重点中仍然超过脱碳。为了使其能源战略与碳中和相结合，中国必须采取具有约束力的政策，减少化石燃料补贴，促进可再生能源投资，并提高各部门的效率。本研究通过将中国的案例置于比较政治经济学的辩论中，并提供对发展中经济体在何种条件下能够协调增长与脱碳的见解，从而对文献做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Valorization of invasive water hyacinth through anaerobic digestion: A pathway to clean cooking fuel and environmental sustainability 通过厌氧消化入侵水葫芦的增值：清洁烹饪燃料和环境可持续性的途径

IF 4.9 2区工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy for Sustainable Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101899

Anudeb Ghosh , Aman Basu , Apurba Koley , Sreya Ghosh , Richik GhoshThakur , Binoy Kumar Show , Tapas Bagdi , Amit Kumar Hazra , Shibani Chaudhury , Srinivasan Balachandran

The rising cost of conventional energy sources has intensified the global search for clean and affordable energy alternatives. Water hyacinth (WH) has great potential as a renewable energy source due to its high growth rate and abundance in tropical regions. This study explores the social, economic, and environmental feasibility of utilizing water hyacinth for biogas production in rural India, with a dual objective of generating clean energy and organic fertilizer. A case study was conducted among 30 households in Goalpara village, West Bengal, an area moderately developed but severely affected by water hyacinth infestation. To evaluate the grassroot applicability of the proposed technology, a behavioural economics approach was adopted through a choice experiment assessing villagers' willingness to adopt biogas technology at a cost of INR 60 per month. This framework integrates technical assessment with social acceptability, providing a holistic perspective often missing in purely engineering-based studies. Biomethane potential was evaluated using Automatic Methane Potential Testing System (AMPTS) yielding methane approximately 148.6 ± 3.4 L/Kg-Volatile Solids for WH at an inoculum-to-substrate ratio of 2:1. The study also examined the availability of cow dung and the seasonal availability of water hyacinth to estimate sustainable biogas yield sufficient for replacing traditional firewood-based cooking. Results indicate that co-digestion of water hyacinth and cow dung could partially replace 33.7 tons of firewood annually, reducing an estimated 60.38 tons of CO₂- equivalent emissions while producing about 700 kg of dry fertilizer for the participating households. Although technically and socially viable, the high initial installation cost remains a key barrier to widespread adoption. Nevertheless, the community's demonstrated willingness to pay and interest in replacing traditional fuels suggest a favourable environment for biogas-based clean cooking systems. By addressing SDG6 & SDG7 and contributing to carbon neutrality, the study offers a holistic scalable pathway towards sustainable rural energy transition and carbon-neutral growth.

常规能源成本的上升促使全球加紧寻找清洁和负担得起的替代能源。水葫芦生长速度快，在热带地区生长丰富，作为一种可再生能源具有很大的潜力。本研究探讨了在印度农村利用水葫芦生产沼气的社会、经济和环境可行性，其双重目标是产生清洁能源和有机肥。在西孟加拉邦戈帕拉村的30户家庭中进行了案例研究，这是一个中等发达但受水葫芦侵害严重的地区。为了评估拟议技术的基层适用性，采用行为经济学方法，通过选择实验评估村民以每月60卢比的成本采用沼气技术的意愿。该框架将技术评估与社会可接受性相结合，提供了一个在纯工程研究中经常缺失的整体视角。使用自动甲烷电位测试系统（AMPTS）评估生物甲烷电位，在接种物与底物的比例为2:1的情况下，为WH产生甲烷约为148.6±3.4 L/ kg挥发性固体。该研究还检查了牛粪的可用性和水葫芦的季节性可用性，以估计足以取代传统柴火烹饪的可持续沼气产量。结果表明，水葫芦和牛粪的共消化每年可部分替代33.7吨柴火，减少约60.38吨二氧化碳当量排放，同时为参与家庭生产约700公斤干肥料。虽然技术上和社会上可行，但高昂的初始安装成本仍然是广泛采用的主要障碍。然而，社区表现出的支付意愿和对替代传统燃料的兴趣表明，环境有利于以沼气为基础的清洁烹饪系统。通过解决可持续发展目标6和可持续发展目标7并促进碳中和，该研究为实现可持续农村能源转型和碳中和增长提供了一条可扩展的整体途径。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding long-term energy use in off-grid solar home systems in sub-Saharan Africa 了解撒哈拉以南非洲离网太阳能家庭系统的长期能源使用情况

IF 4.9 2区工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy for Sustainable Development

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101896

R. Perriment , V. Mergulhão , V. Kumtepeli , P. Parikh , M.D. McCulloch , D.A. Howey

Solar home systems provide low-cost electricity for rural off-grid communities. As access to them increases, more long-term data becomes available on how these systems are used throughout their lifetime. This work analyses a dataset of 1,000 systems across sub-Saharan Africa. Dynamic time warping clustering was applied to the load demand data from the systems, identifying five distinct archetypal daily load profiles and their occurrence across the dataset. Temporal analysis reveals a general decline in daily energy consumption over time, with 77% of households reducing their usage compared to the start of ownership. On average, there is a 33% decrease in daily consumption by the end of the second year compared to the peak demand, which occurs on the 96th day. Combining the load demand analysis with payment data shows that this decrease in energy consumption is observed even in households that are not experiencing economic hardship, indicating there are reasons beyond financial constraints for decreasing energy use once energy access is obtained.

家用太阳能系统为农村离网社区提供低成本电力。随着对这些系统访问的增加，可以获得更多关于这些系统在其整个生命周期中如何使用的长期数据。这项工作分析了撒哈拉以南非洲地区1000个系统的数据集。动态时间扭曲聚类应用于来自系统的负载需求数据，确定五种不同的原型日负载概况及其在数据集中的出现情况。时间分析显示，随着时间的推移，日常能源消耗普遍下降，77%的家庭与开始拥有房屋相比，减少了他们的使用量。平均而言，到第二年年底，与第96天的峰值需求相比，每日消费量下降了33%。将负荷需求分析与支付数据相结合表明，即使在没有经历经济困难的家庭中，也可以观察到能源消耗的减少，这表明一旦获得能源，就会有财政限制之外的原因减少能源使用。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating the viability of biogas as a sustainable transport fuel in Nigeria: Policy gaps, analytical insights, and strategic roadmap 评估尼日利亚沼气作为可持续运输燃料的可行性：政策差距、分析见解和战略路线图

IF 4.9 2区工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy for Sustainable Development

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101888

Micaiah Zhitsu Silas , Abhay Kumar Verma

The transport industry in Nigeria is still mainly dependent on fossil fuels making the industry very costly to operate, energy insecure, and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Its contribution to the transport sector is insignificant despite having an estimated 19billion m 3 of annual biogas potential in the form of agricultural and other organic residues. This paper analyses the feasibility of upgraded biogas (biomethane) as a renewable transport fuel in rural Nigeria based on secondary data, a comparative analysis, and the modelling of the cost and emission. Based on the 3m³/day of biogas that was upgraded to 1.8m³/day of biomethane, a payback period of 9.8 years of operation, an internal rate of return of 6 9, and a reduction of CO₂ emission by 85–90 % over diesel was simulated. The results show that although biomethane is currently uneconomical to produce, it is a technically and environmental viable alternative mode of transportation in the rural areas. Policy alignment, fiscal incentives, and modular upgrading infrastructure are the recommendations of the study that can speed up the process of changing Nigeria to a low-carbon, energy-secure transport system.

尼日利亚的运输业仍然主要依赖化石燃料，这使得该行业的运营成本非常高，能源不安全，并且温室气体排放增加。它对运输部门的贡献微不足道，尽管估计每年有190亿立方米的农业和其他有机残留物形式的沼气潜力。本文基于二手数据、比较分析以及成本和排放模型，分析了升级沼气（生物甲烷）在尼日利亚农村作为可再生运输燃料的可行性。以3立方米/天的沼气升级为1.8立方米/天的沼气为基础，模拟了运行9.8年的投资回收期和6.9的内部收益率，与柴油相比，二氧化碳排放量减少了85 ~ 90%。结果表明，虽然目前生物甲烷的生产不经济，但在农村地区，它是一种技术上和环境上可行的替代运输方式。政策调整、财政激励和模块化升级基础设施是该研究的建议，可以加快尼日利亚向低碳、能源安全运输系统转变的进程。

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