Atmospheric dust significantly influences regional and global climate systems, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia (CA), where it impacts air quality, visibility, and human health. This study provides the first comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of future dust levels in CA using aerosol optical thickness (AOT) under climate change scenarios to support effective adaptation and mitigation efforts. Multi-ensemble CMIP6 models show notable variability across six clusters under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. In the near-future, localized increases are observed—for example, Cluster 1, covering the flat, lowland regions of northern Kazakhstan, shows an annual slope of 0.61 under SSP2–4.5, while Cluster 3, which includes the northwestern lowlands near the Caspian Sea and the mountainous southeastern regions of CA, shows a slight decline of −0.14 under SSP5–8.5. By the far-future, under SSP5–8.5, Cluster 1 shows a sharp decline (slope = -3.94), while Cluster 3 experiences a moderate decrease of −2.31.
Projections also indicate a strong rise in low-intensity events, particularly in Cluster 1, with a 137.1% increase under SSP5–8.5, reaching 32,432 annual events by 2100. In contrast, high-intensity events are expected to decline, especially in Cluster 2 (southern Kazakhstan desert and semi-desert areas), which is projected to experience a 47.7% decrease under SSP5–8.5. These findings show that SSP2–4.5 favors stabilization by moderating extremes, while SSP5–8.5 increases variability and localized dust intensification. The results offer key insights for guiding targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies to address dust-related environmental and societal challenges in CA.
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