Background
The Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation Quality Improvement Program (MBSAQIP) risk/benefit calculator is an important tool used to counsel patients and predict postoperative risk and outcomes after bariatric surgery.
Objectives
We aimed to assess the accuracy of the calculator in predicting outcomes after revisional bariatric procedures compared with primary procedures.
Setting
Single-institution and national data.
Methods
Postoperative outcomes (30-day complications and body mass index [BMI] at 6 months and 1 year) of patients undergoing primary and revisional bariatric procedures between 2016 and 2021 were recorded and compared with the predictions of the online calculator. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed to assess the predictive utility for binominal outcomes. For BMI, predictive error (predicted – actual BMI) was calculated. We also queried the MBSAQIP participant use files between 2021 and 2022 to examine the calculator use nationally.
Results
Out of 1026 patients, 864 (84.2%) had primary, and 162 (15.8%) had revisional bariatric surgery. The area under the curve for any complication, serious complications, surgical site infections (SSIs), and readmissions were .63, .74, .67, and .52 for primary procedures, and .61, .73, .52, and .57 for revisions. The correlation coefficient of predicted and observed 1-year BMI was .74, P < .001 for primary procedures, and .55, P < .001 for revisions. The mean predictive error for 1-year BMI for revisions was higher than that for primary procedures (−3.8 ± 5.2 vs. −.30 ± 4.3, P < .001) with 75% of revisions having a negative predictive error. At the national level, the calculator was used in 18.4% of primary procedures and 16.1% (P < .001) of revisions.
Conclusions
The MBSAQIP calculator is being used to counsel patients undergoing primary and revisional bariatric surgery. While calculator predictions for some outcomes are similar between primary and revisional cases, they are inaccurate for SSIs and weight loss outcomes after revisional surgeries. The development of a revision-specific calculator that provides more accurate estimates is recommended.
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