Claystone tends to swell and deform upon exposure to water, frequently causing adverse impacts on the stability of engineering excavations. Predicting the swelling behaviour remains challenging due to the combined effects of various influencing factors associated with mineral compositions and external conditions. This study conducts swelling tests on claystone to assess the one-dimensional swelling under different vertical loads. Laboratory tests reveal that external loads can impede the evolution of swelling pressure and reduce the swelling deformation. Based on the test results, a 3D hydro-mechanical model is developed by coupling time-dependent hydraulic process and mechanical response to simulate the swelling behaviour of the rock under varying loading conditions. A material diffusivity constant is introduced to quantify the nonlinear decay effects of external loading on the effective diffusion coefficient during the hydraulic process. Parametric sensitivity analyses evaluate the impact of clay mineral content and external loading on swelling behaviour. The results indicate that (i) higher clay mineral contents lead to greater swelling deformation due to the stiffness degradation, and (ii) greater external loads retard the water transport process and decrease swelling deformation. The combined effects of clay content and external loading are discussed. Furthermore, a long-term swelling prediction of 10,000 days is performed, revealing that an enhanced confinement can delay the timing of swelling stabilisation due to the decline in effective diffusion coefficient. The estimated swelling strain shows an inverse relationship with the confinement. Overall, this study enhances the understanding of rock behaviour under various mineral compositions and external loads, providing valuable insights into predicting and mitigating swelling.
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