PLoS Computational Biology最新文献

Genetic markers (especially short tandem repeats or STRs) located on the X chromosome are a valuable resource to solve complex kinship cases in forensic genetics in addition or alternatively to autosomal STRs. Groups of tightly linked markers are combined into haplotypes, thus increasing the discriminating power of tests. However, this approach requires precise knowledge of the recombination rates between adjacent markers. The International Society of Forensic Genetics recommends that recombination rate estimation on the X chromosome is performed from pedigree genetic data while taking into account the confounding effect of mutations. However, implementations that satisfy these requirements have several drawbacks: they were never publicly released, they are very slow and/or need cluster-level hardware and strong computational expertise to use. In order to address these key concerns we developed Recombulator-X, a new open-source Python tool. The most challenging issue, namely the running time, was addressed with dynamic programming techniques to greatly reduce the computational complexity of the algorithm. Compared to the previous methods, Recombulator-X reduces the estimation times from weeks or months to less than one hour for typical datasets. Moreover, the estimation process, including preprocessing, has been streamlined and packaged into a simple command-line tool that can be run on a normal PC. Where previous approaches were limited to small panels of STR markers (up to 15), our tool can handle greater numbers (up to 100) of mixed STR and non-STR markers. In conclusion, Recombulator-X makes the estimation process much simpler, faster and accessible to researchers without a computational background, hopefully spurring increased adoption of best practices.

China had conducted some of the most stringent public health measures to control the spread of successive SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, the effectiveness of these measures and their impacts on the associated disease burden have rarely been quantitatively assessed at the national level. To address this gap, we developed a stochastic age-stratified metapopulation model that incorporates testing, contact tracing and isolation, based on 419 million travel movements among 366 Chinese cities. The study period for this model began from September 2022. The COVID-19 disease burden was evaluated, considering 8 types of underlying health conditions in the Chinese population. We identified the marginal effects between the testing speed and reduction in the epidemic duration. The findings suggest that assuming a vaccine coverage of 89%, the Omicron-like wave could be suppressed by 3-day interval population-level testing (PLT), while it would become endemic with 4-day interval PLT, and without testing, it would result in an epidemic. PLT conducted every 3 days would not only eliminate infections but also keep hospital bed occupancy at less than 29.46% (95% CI, 22.73-38.68%) of capacity for respiratory illness and ICU bed occupancy at less than 58.94% (95% CI, 45.70-76.90%) during an outbreak. Furthermore, the underlying health conditions would lead to an extra 2.35 (95% CI, 1.89-2.92) million hospital admissions and 0.16 (95% CI, 0.13-0.2) million ICU admissions. Our study provides insights into health preparedness to balance the disease burden and sustainability for a country with a population of billions.

Addressing global environmental crises such as anthropogenic climate change requires the consistent adoption of proenvironmental behavior by a large part of a population. Here, we develop a mathematical model of a simple behavior-environment feedback loop to ask how the individual assessment of the environmental state combines with social interactions to influence the consistent adoption of proenvironmental behavior, and how this feeds back to the perceived environmental state. In this stochastic individual-based model, individuals can switch between two behaviors, 'active' (or actively proenvironmental) and 'baseline', differing in their perceived cost (higher for the active behavior) and environmental impact (lower for the active behavior). We show that the deterministic dynamics and the stochastic fluctuations of the system can be approximated by ordinary differential equations and a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process. By definition, the proenvironmental behavior is adopted consistently when, at population stationary state, its frequency is high and random fluctuations in frequency are small. We find that the combination of social and environmental feedbacks can promote the spread of costly proenvironmental behavior when neither, operating in isolation, would. To be adopted consistently, strong social pressure for proenvironmental action is necessary but not sufficient-social interactions must occur on a faster timescale compared to individual assessment, and the difference in environmental impact must be small. This simple model suggests a scenario to achieve large reductions in environmental impact, which involves incrementally more active and potentially more costly behavior being consistently adopted under increasing social pressure for proenvironmentalism.