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Nonparametric estimation of $${mathbb {P}}(X 对 $${mathbb {P}}(X) 的非参数估计
IF 0.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-01-08 DOI: 10.1007/s00184-023-00941-1
Cao Xuan Phuong, Le Thi Hong Thuy

Let X, Y be continuous random variables with unknown distributions. The aim of this paper is to study the problem of estimating the probability (theta := {mathbb {P}}(X<Y)) based on independent random samples from the distributions of (X'), (Y'), (zeta ) and (eta ), where (X' = X + zeta ), (Y' = Y + eta ) and X, Y, (zeta ), (eta ) are mutually independent random variables. In this context, (zeta ), (eta ) are referred to as measurement errors. We apply the ridge-parameter regularization method to derive a nonparametric estimator for (theta ) depending on two parameters. Our estimator is shown to be consistent with respect to mean squared error if the characteristic functions of (zeta ), (eta ) only vanish on Lebesgue measure zero sets. Under some further assumptions on the densities of X, Y, (zeta ) and (eta ), we obtain some upper and lower bounds on the convergence rate of the estimator. A numerical example is also given to illustrate the efficiency of our method.

设 X、Y 为未知分布的连续随机变量。本文旨在研究估计概率 (theta := {mathbb {P}}(X<;Y))的独立随机样本,其中 (X' = X + zeta ),(Y' = Y + eta ),并且 X、Y、(zeta )、(eta )是相互独立的随机变量。在这里,(zeta )、(eta )被称为测量误差。我们应用脊参数正则化方法推导出一个取决于两个参数的 (theta )非参数估计器。如果 (zeta )、(eta )的特征函数仅在 Lebesgue 测量零集上消失,那么我们的估计器在均方误差方面是一致的。在对 X、Y、(zeta )和(eta )密度的一些进一步假设下,我们得到了估计器收敛率的一些上下限。我们还给出了一个数值例子来说明我们方法的效率。
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引用次数: 0
Penalized Lq-likelihood estimator and its influence function in generalized linear models 广义线性模型中的惩罚性 Lq-似然估计器及其影响函数
IF 0.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-01-07 DOI: 10.1007/s00184-023-00943-z

Abstract

Consider the following generalized linear model (GLM) $$begin{aligned} y_i=h(x_i^Tbeta )+e_i,quad i=1,2,ldots ,n, end{aligned}$$ where h(.) is a continuous differentiable function, ({e_i}) are independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables with zero mean and known variance (sigma ^2) . Based on the penalized Lq-likelihood method of linear regression models, we apply the method to the GLM, and also investigate Oracle properties of the penalized Lq-likelihood estimator (PLqE). In order to show the robustness of the PLqE, we discuss influence function of the PLqE. Simulation results support the validity of our approach. Furthermore, it is shown that the PLqE is robust, while the penalized maximum likelihood estimator is not.

Abstract Consider the following generalized linear model (GLM) $$begin{aligned} y_i=h(x_i^Tbeta )+e_i,quad i=1,2,ldots ,n, end{aligned}$$其中h(.)是连续可微分函数,({e_i})是均值为零且方差为已知的独立同分布(i.i.d.)随机变量。基于线性回归模型的惩罚性 Lq-likelihood 方法,我们将该方法应用于 GLM,并研究了惩罚性 Lq-likelihood 估计器(PLqE)的 Oracle 特性。为了证明 PLqE 的稳健性,我们讨论了 PLqE 的影响函数。模拟结果证明了我们方法的有效性。此外,仿真结果表明 PLqE 是稳健的,而惩罚最大似然估计器则不稳健。
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引用次数: 0
The local linear functional kNN estimator of the conditional expectile: uniform consistency in number of neighbors 条件期望值的局部线性函数 kNN 估计器:邻域数的均匀一致性
IF 0.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-01-06 DOI: 10.1007/s00184-023-00942-0
Ibrahim M. Almanjahie, Salim Bouzebda, Zoulikha Kaid, Ali Laksaci

The main purpose of the present paper is to investigate the problem of the nonparametric estimation of the expectile regression in which the response variable is scalar while the covariate is a random function. More precisely, an estimator is constructed by using the local linear k Nearest Neighbor procedures (kNN). The main contribution of this study is the establishment of the Uniform consistency in Number of Neighbors of the constructed estimators. These results are established under fairly general structural conditions on the classes of functions and the underlying models. The usefulness of our result for the smoothing parameter automatic selection is discussed. Some simulation studies are carried out to show the finite sample performances of the kNN estimator. The theoretical uniform consistency results, established in this paper, are (or will be) key tools for many further developments in functional data analysis.

本文的主要目的是研究响应变量为标量而协变量为随机函数的期望回归的非参数估计问题。更确切地说,本文使用局部线性 k 近邻程序(kNN)构建了一个估计器。本研究的主要贡献在于建立了所构建估计子的 "近邻数均匀一致性"。这些结果是在函数类别和基础模型的一般结构条件下建立的。讨论了我们的结果对平滑参数自动选择的有用性。我们还进行了一些模拟研究,以显示 kNN 估计器的有限样本性能。本文建立的理论统一一致性结果是(或将是)函数数据分析领域进一步发展的关键工具。
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引用次数: 0
On the asymptotic behaviour of the joint distribution of the maxima and minima of observations, when the sample size is a random variable 当样本量是一个随机变量时,观测值最大值和最小值联合分布的渐近行为
IF 0.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-01-05 DOI: 10.1007/s00184-023-00940-2
R. Vasudeva

In this paper, we obtain the asymptotic form of the joint distribution of maxima and minima of independent observations, when the sample size is a random variable. We also discuss the asymptotic distribution of the Range.

在本文中,我们得到了当样本量为随机变量时,独立观测值的最大值和最小值的联合分布的渐近形式。我们还讨论了范围的渐近分布。
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引用次数: 0
Bayesian minimum aberration mixed-level split-plot designs 贝叶斯最小畸变混合水平分割图设计
IF 0.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1007/s00184-023-00937-x
Hui Li, Min-Qian Liu, Jinyu Yang

Many industrial experiments involve factors with levels more difficult to change or control than others, which leads to the development of two-level fractional factorial split-plot (FFSP) designs. Recently, mixed-level FFSP designs were proposed due to the requirement of different-level factors. In this paper, we generalize the Bayesian optimal criterion for mixed two- and four-level FFSP designs, and then provide Bayesian minimum aberration (MA) criterion to rank FFSP designs. Bayesian MA criterion can give a natural ordering for the effects involving two-level factors and three components of a four-level factor. We also discuss the relationship between the Bayesian optimal and Bayesian MA criteria. Furthermore, we consider the designs with both qualitative and quantitative factors.

许多工业实验涉及的因素水平比其他因素更难改变或控制,这就导致了两水平分数因子分割图(FFSP)设计的发展。最近,由于对不同水平因子的要求,又提出了混合水平 FFSP 设计。本文将贝叶斯最优准则推广到混合两级和四级 FFSP 设计中,然后提供贝叶斯最小畸变(MA)准则对 FFSP 设计进行排序。贝叶斯最小畸变准则可以为涉及两级因子和四级因子中三个成分的效应给出一个自然排序。我们还讨论了贝叶斯最优准则和贝叶斯 MA 准则之间的关系。此外,我们还考虑了具有定性和定量因素的设计。
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引用次数: 0
Mixing convergence of LSE for supercritical AR(2) processes with Gaussian innovations using random scaling 使用随机缩放对具有高斯创新的超临界 AR(2) 过程的 LSE 进行混合收敛
IF 0.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-12-27 DOI: 10.1007/s00184-023-00936-y
Mátyás Barczy, Fanni Nedényi, Gyula Pap

We prove mixing convergence of the least squares estimator of autoregressive parameters for supercritical autoregressive processes of order 2 with Gaussian innovations having real characteristic roots with different absolute values. We use an appropriate random scaling such that the limit distribution is a two-dimensional normal distribution concentrated on a one-dimensional ray determined by the characteristic root having the larger absolute value.

我们证明了具有不同绝对值实特征根的高斯创新的 2 阶超临界自回归过程的自回归参数最小二乘估计值的混合收敛性。我们使用适当的随机缩放,使得极限分布是集中在由绝对值较大的特征根所决定的一维射线上的二维正态分布。
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引用次数: 0
An association measure for spatio-temporal time series 时空时间序列的关联测量法
IF 0.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-12-23 DOI: 10.1007/s00184-023-00939-9
Divya Kappara, Arup Bose, Madhuchhanda Bhattacharjee

Spatial association measures for univariate static spatial data are widely used. Suppose the data is in the form of a collection of spatial vectors, say (X_{rt}) where (r=1, ldots , R) are the regions and (t=1, ldots , T) are the time points, in the same temporal domain of interest. Using Bergsma’s correlation coefficient (rho ), we construct a measure of similarity between the regions’ series. Due to the special properties of (rho ), unlike other spatial association measures which test for spatial randomness, our statistic can account for spatial pairwise independence. We have derived the asymptotic distribution of our statistic under null (independence of the regions) and alternate cases (the regions are dependent) when, across t the vector time series are assumed to be independent and identically distributed. The alternate scenario of spatial dependence is explored using simulations from the spatial autoregressive and moving average models. Finally, we provide application to modelling and testing for the presence of spatial association in COVID-19 incidence data, by using our statistic on the residuals obtained after model fitting.

单变量静态空间数据的空间关联测量被广泛使用。假设数据是空间向量的集合,例如 (X_{rt}),其中 (r=1,ldots,R)是区域,(t=1,ldots,T)是时间点,处于同一时域。使用 Bergsma 的相关系数 (rho ),我们构建了区域序列之间相似性的度量。由于 (rho ) 的特殊性质,与其他测试空间随机性的空间关联测量不同,我们的统计量可以考虑空间配对独立性。我们推导了在假定矢量时间序列在 t 上是独立且同分布的情况下,统计量在空值(区域独立)和交替情况(区域依赖)下的渐近分布。我们利用空间自回归模型和移动平均模型的模拟,探讨了空间依赖性的另一种情况。最后,我们利用模型拟合后得到的残差统计量,对 COVID-19 发病率数据中是否存在空间关联进行建模和检验。
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引用次数: 0
A tail index estimation for long memory processes 长记忆过程的尾部指数估算
IF 0.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.1007/s00184-023-00938-w
Xiao Wang, Lihong Wang

This paper provides a least squares regression estimation of the tail index for long memory processes where the innovations are (alpha )-stable random sequences. The estimate is based on the property of the characteristic function of the process near the origin. The asymptotics of the estimator are obtained by choosing suitable regression samples with the help of the properties of the (alpha )-stable distribution. The numerical simulation and an empirical analysis of financial market data are conducted to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator.

本文对创新为 (α )-稳定随机序列的长记忆过程的尾部指数进行了最小二乘回归估计。该估计基于原点附近过程特征函数的性质。在 (α )-稳定分布性质的帮助下,通过选择合适的回归样本得到了估计器的渐近线。对金融市场数据进行了数值模拟和实证分析,以评估所提出的估计器的有限样本性能。
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引用次数: 0
Correcting spot power variation estimator via Edgeworth expansion 通过埃奇沃斯扩展修正点功率变化估计器
IF 0.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.1007/s00184-023-00935-z
Lidan He, Qiang Liu, Zhi Liu, Andrea Bucci

In this paper, we propose an estimator of power spot volatility of order p through Edgeworth expansion. We provide a precise description of how to compute the expansion and the first four cumulants are given in an explicit form. We also construct feasible confidence intervals (one-sided and two-sided) for the pth power spot volatility estimator by using Edgeworth expansion. A Monte Carlo simulation study shows that the confidence intervals and probability density curve based on Edgeworth expansion perform better than the conventional case based on Normal approximation.

在本文中,我们提出了一种通过埃奇沃斯扩展估算 p 阶幂级数现货波动率的方法。我们提供了如何计算扩展的精确描述,并以明确的形式给出了前四个累积量。我们还利用埃奇沃斯扩展为 pth 幂现货波动率估计值构建了可行的置信区间(单边和双边)。蒙特卡罗模拟研究表明,基于埃奇沃斯扩展的置信区间和概率密度曲线比基于正态近似的传统情况表现更好。
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引用次数: 0
A proper selection among multiple Buckley–James estimates 从多个巴克利-詹姆斯估计值中进行适当选择
IF 0.7 4区 数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2023-12-14 DOI: 10.1007/s00184-023-00933-1
Qiqing Yu

Consider the semiparametric linear regression estimation problem with right-censored data. Under right censoring, the Buckley–James estimator (BJE) is the standard extension of the least squares estimator. Moreover, an iterative algorithm for the BJE has been implemented in R package called rms. We show that it often does not yield a solution, even if a consistent BJE exists. Yu and Wong (J Stat Comput Simul 72:451–460, 2002) proposed another algorithm to find all possible BJEs. The latter algorithm is modified in this paper so that it indeed finds all BJEs when the underlying regression parameter vector is identifiable. We show that some of these BJE’s can be inconsistent. Thus it is important to decide how to select a proper BJE such that it is consistent if the parameter is identifiable. We suggest either choose one close to the modified semi-parametric maximum likelihood estimator (Yu and Wong in Technometrics 47:34–42, 2005) or a finite boundary point if there are infinitely many BJEs.

考虑右截尾数据的半参数线性回归估计问题。在正确的滤波条件下,Buckley-James估计量是最小二乘估计量的标准推广。此外,在R包中实现了BJE的迭代算法rms。我们表明,即使存在一致的BJE,它通常也不会产生解决方案。Yu和Wong (J Stat computer Simul 72:451-460, 2002)提出了另一种算法来寻找所有可能的bje。本文对后一种算法进行了改进,使得当底层回归参数向量可识别时,它确实能找到所有的bje。我们表明,其中一些BJE可能是不一致的。因此,重要的是决定如何选择合适的BJE,以便在参数可识别的情况下保持一致。我们建议,如果存在无限多个bje,则选择一个接近修改的半参数极大似然估计量(Yu and Wong in technomeics 47:34 - 42,2005)或有限边界点。
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引用次数: 0
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Metrika
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