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Identifying and supporting trafficked individuals: provider and community organization perspectives on existing sociotechnical approaches. 识别和支持被贩运的个人:提供者和社区组织对现有社会技术方法的看法。
IF 4.6 2区 医学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocaf220
Michelle Gomez, Ellen W Clayton, Colin G Walsh, Kim M Unertl

Objectives: Trafficked persons experience adverse health consequences and seek help, but many go unrecognized by health-care professionals. This study explored professionals' perspectives on current approaches toward identifying and supporting trafficked persons in health-care settings, highlighting current technology roles, gaps, and future directions.

Materials and methods: We developed an interview guide to investigate current human trafficking (HT) approaches, safety procedures, and HT education. Semistructured interviews were conducted via Zoom, iteratively coded in Dedoose, and analyzed using a thematic analysis approach.

Results: We interviewed 19 health-care and community group professionals and identified 3 themes: (1) participants described a responsibility to build trust with patients through compassionate communication, rapport, and trauma-informed approaches across different stages of care. (2) Technology played a dual role, as professionals navigated both benefits and challenges of tools such as Zoom, virtual interpreters, and cameras in trust building. (3) Safety and privacy concerns guided how participants documented patient encounters and shared community resources, ensuring confidentiality while supporting patient and community well-being.

Discussion: Technology can both support and hinder trust in health care, directly affecting trafficked patients and their safety. Informatics can improve care for trafficked persons, but further research is needed on technology-based interventions. We provide recommendations to strengthen trust, enhance safety, support trauma-informed care, and promote safe documentation practices.

Conclusion: Effective sociotechnical approaches rely on trust, safety, and mindful documentation to support trafficked patients. Future research directions include refining the role of informatics in trauma-informed care to strengthen trust and mitigate unintended consequences.

目标:被贩运者经历了不利的健康后果并寻求帮助,但许多人没有得到保健专业人员的认识。本研究探讨了专业人员对目前在卫生保健机构中识别和支持被贩运者的方法的看法,强调了目前的技术作用、差距和未来方向。材料和方法:我们制定了一份访谈指南来调查当前的人口贩运(HT)方法、安全程序和HT教育。通过Zoom进行半结构化访谈,在Dedoose中迭代编码,并使用主题分析方法进行分析。结果:我们采访了19名医疗保健和社区团体专业人员,并确定了3个主题:(1)参与者描述了在不同护理阶段通过富有同情心的沟通、融洽关系和创伤知情方法与患者建立信任的责任。(2)技术发挥了双重作用,因为专业人员在建立信任方面既能驾驭Zoom、虚拟口译员和摄像机等工具的优势,也能应对它们带来的挑战。(3)安全和隐私问题指导参与者如何记录患者遭遇和共享社区资源,在支持患者和社区福祉的同时确保保密性。讨论:技术既可以支持也可以阻碍对卫生保健的信任,直接影响到被贩运的病人及其安全。信息学可以改善对被贩运者的护理,但需要进一步研究基于技术的干预措施。我们提供建议,以加强信任,提高安全性,支持创伤知情护理,并促进安全的文件实践。结论:有效的社会技术手段依赖于信任、安全和谨慎的文件来支持被拐卖的患者。未来的研究方向包括完善信息学在创伤知情护理中的作用,以加强信任和减轻意外后果。
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引用次数: 0
Clinical decision support for population health management: development and validation of integrated acuity and intervention prediction models. 人口健康管理的临床决策支持:综合敏锐度和干预预测模型的开发和验证。
IF 4.6 2区 医学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocaf225
Sanjay Basu, Sadiq Y Patel, Parth Sheth, Bhairavi Muralidharan, Namrata Elamaran, Aakriti Kinra, Rajaie Batniji

Objective: Population health management programs coordinate care for over 80 million Medicaid beneficiaries but lack systematic clinical decision support for determining when to intervene and which interventions to select for patients with complex conditions. Our objective was to develop and validate a clinical decision support system integrating acuity prediction and intervention selection models for population health management programs.

Materials and methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 155 631 Medicaid patients enrolled in population health programs across Washington, Virginia, and Ohio (January 2023-July 2025). We developed integrated informatics workflows combining time-to-event prediction models for acute care events with heterogeneous treatment effect estimators for intervention selection. Models used structured electronic health record data, claims, and care management records. Performance was evaluated through clinical validation with 3 blinded physicians reviewing 200 cases.

Results: The integrated decision support system achieved 81.3% sensitivity (95% CI, 79.8%-82.8%) and 82.1% specificity (95% CI, 80.6%-83.6%) for 30-day acute care prediction. The intervention selection component demonstrated 1.59 percentage points absolute risk reduction compared with standard care (95% CI, 0.21-3.04), translating to preventing one acute event for every 63 patients receiving model-guided rather than standard care. Clinical validation revealed systematic differences: physicians relied on recent utilization patterns (explaining 75.8% of decision variance) while models integrated broader clinical signals, identifying intervention opportunities earlier in disease trajectories. Both approaches recommended similar intervention types, suggesting complementary rather than replacement roles.

Discussion: An integrated clinical decision support system can enhance population health management by providing actionable guidance on intervention timing and selection.

Conclusion: An integrated decision support system's ability to identify opportunities before high utilization manifests offers potential for shifting from reactive to preventive care delivery for vulnerable populations.

目的:人口健康管理项目协调了超过8000万医疗补助受益人的护理,但缺乏系统的临床决策支持,以确定何时干预以及为复杂病情的患者选择哪种干预措施。我们的目标是开发和验证一个临床决策支持系统,该系统集成了人口健康管理项目的敏锐度预测和干预选择模型。材料和方法:我们在2023年1月至2025年7月期间,对华盛顿州、弗吉尼亚州和俄亥俄州人口健康计划中登记的155631名医疗补助患者进行了回顾性队列研究。我们开发了集成信息学工作流程,将急性护理事件的时间到事件预测模型与用于干预选择的异构治疗效果估计器结合起来。模型使用结构化电子健康记录数据、索赔和护理管理记录。通过3名盲法医生对200例病例的临床验证来评估其表现。结果:综合决策支持系统对30天急性护理预测的敏感性为81.3% (95% CI, 79.8% ~ 82.8%),特异性为82.1% (95% CI, 80.6% ~ 83.6%)。干预选择部分显示,与标准治疗相比,绝对风险降低1.59个百分点(95% CI, 0.21-3.04),转化为每63名接受模型指导而不是标准治疗的患者预防1例急性事件。临床验证揭示了系统差异:医生依赖于最近的使用模式(解释了75.8%的决策差异),而模型整合了更广泛的临床信号,在疾病轨迹的早期识别干预机会。两种方法都推荐类似的干预类型,建议互补而不是替代角色。讨论:综合临床决策支持系统可以通过对干预时机和选择提供可操作的指导来加强人群健康管理。结论:综合决策支持系统能够在高使用率出现之前识别机会,为弱势群体提供从被动到预防性保健服务的转变提供了潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Knowledge graph-augmented large language models for reconstructing life course risk pathways: a gestational diabetes mellitus-to-dementia case study. 重建生命历程风险路径的知识图谱增强大语言模型:一个妊娠期糖尿病到痴呆的案例研究。
IF 4.6 2区 医学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocaf219
Shuang Wang, Yang Zhang, Ying Gao, Xin He, Guanghui Deng, Jian Du

Objectives: To develop and evaluate a knowledge graph-augmented large language model (LLM) framework that synthesizes epidemiological evidence to infer life-course exposure-outcome pathways, using gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and dementia as a case study.

Materials and methods: We constructed a causal knowledge graph by extracting empirical epidemiological associations from scientific literature, excluding hypothetical assertions. The graph was integrated with GPT-4 through four graph retrieval-augmented generation (GRAG) strategies to infer bridging variables between early-life exposure (GDM) and later-life outcome (dementia). Semantic triples served as structured inputs to support LLM reasoning. Each GRAG strategy was evaluated by human clinical experts and three LLM-based reviewers (GPT-4o, Llama 3-70B, and Gemini Advanced), assessing scientific reliability, novelty, and clinical relevance.

Results: The GRAG strategy using a minimal set of abstracts specifically related to GDM-dementia bridging variables performed comparably to the strategy using broader sub-community abstracts, and both significantly outperformed approaches using the full GDM- or dementia-related corpus or baseline GPT-4 without external augmentation. The knowledge graph-augmented LLM identified 108 maternal candidate mediators, including validated risk factors such as chronic kidney disease and physical inactivity. The structured approach improved accuracy and reduced confabulation compared to standard LLM outputs.

Discussion: Our findings suggest that augmenting LLMs with epidemiological knowledge graphs enables effective reasoning over fragmented literature and supports the reconstruction of progressive risk pathways. Expert assessments revealed that LLMs may overestimate clinical relevance, highlighting the need for human-AI collaboration in interpretation and application.

Conclusion: Integrating semantic epidemiological knowledge with LLMs via GRAG strategies provides a promising framework for life-course epidemiology, enabling early detection of modifiable risk factors and guiding variable selection in cohort study design.

目的:以妊娠期糖尿病(GDM)和痴呆为例,开发和评估一个知识图增强大语言模型(LLM)框架,该框架综合流行病学证据来推断生命过程暴露-结局途径。材料和方法:我们通过从科学文献中提取经验流行病学关联来构建因果知识图,排除假设断言。该图表通过四种图表检索增强生成(GRAG)策略与GPT-4整合,以推断早期生活暴露(GDM)和后期生活结果(痴呆)之间的桥接变量。语义三元组作为结构化输入来支持LLM推理。每个GRAG策略由人类临床专家和三位基于法学硕士的评审员(gpt - 40、Llama 3-70B和Gemini Advanced)评估,评估科学可靠性、新颖性和临床相关性。结果:使用与GDM-痴呆桥接变量相关的最小摘要集的GRAG策略与使用更广泛的子社区摘要的策略表现相当,并且两者都明显优于使用完整GDM或痴呆相关语料库或基线GPT-4的方法,没有外部增强。知识图谱增强的LLM确定了108个母体候选介质,包括经过验证的风险因素,如慢性肾脏疾病和缺乏身体活动。与标准LLM输出相比,结构化方法提高了精度并减少了虚构。讨论:我们的研究结果表明,用流行病学知识图谱增加llm可以对碎片化的文献进行有效的推理,并支持渐进风险路径的重建。专家评估显示,法学硕士可能高估了临床相关性,强调了在解释和应用方面需要人类与人工智能合作。结论:通过GRAG策略将语义流行病学知识与llm整合为生命过程流行病学提供了一个有希望的框架,可以早期发现可改变的危险因素,并指导队列研究设计中的变量选择。
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引用次数: 0
Patient perspectives on gender identity and anatomy data collection in electronic health records: a qualitative study. 患者对电子健康记录中性别认同和解剖数据收集的看法:一项定性研究。
IF 4.6 2区 医学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocaf205
Samuel Dubin, Gabrielle Mayer, Nishant Pradhan, Madeline Xin, Richard Greene

Objectives: Documentation of gender identity (GI) and anatomy data in the electronic health record (EHR) is a proposed standard of care for transgender populations. However, there is limited research on implementation of proposed best practices, particularly anatomy data collection. This study aims to characterize factors that influence patient preferences and comfort around the collection and documentation of GI and anatomy in EHRs.

Materials and methods: From November 2023 to January 2024, 17 one-on-one, semi-structured virtual interviews were conducted with transgender adults residing in the Metropolitan New York area. Transcriptions were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis.

Results: Themes clustered around comfort and preferences for data collection processes and outcomes. Factors that influenced preferences and comfort around anatomy data were distinct from those impacting GI documentation preferences and comfort. The tension between the categories of GI and sex assigned at birth impacted anatomy data documentation preferences. Clinical context emerged as a consistent factor that impacts both preferences and comfort of GI and anatomy data documentation.

Discussion and conclusion: GI data collection efforts in clinical settings must consider the implication of anatomy data collection when determining data collection best practice methodologies. Anticipated and experienced stigma remain significant hurdles to patient comfort and willingness to collect GI and anatomy data, and their impact on actual data collection should be further elucidated among diverse gender identities. Clinical data collection methods, tools, and education warrant ongoing research investment to further elucidate best practices.

目的:在电子健康记录(EHR)中记录性别认同(GI)和解剖数据是跨性别人群的拟议护理标准。然而,关于实施建议的最佳实践的研究有限,特别是解剖数据收集。本研究旨在描述影响患者在电子病历中收集和记录GI和解剖的偏好和舒适度的因素。材料与方法:从2023年11月至2024年1月,对居住在纽约大都会地区的跨性别成年人进行了17次一对一、半结构化的虚拟访谈。采用归纳主题性分析对转录进行分析。结果:主题集中在舒适度和偏好的数据收集过程和结果。影响解剖学数据偏好和舒适度的因素与影响GI文档偏好和舒适度的因素不同。GI分类和出生时性别分配之间的紧张关系影响了解剖学数据记录的偏好。临床环境成为影响GI和解剖数据文档偏好和舒适度的一致因素。讨论和结论:在确定数据收集最佳实践方法时,临床环境中的GI数据收集工作必须考虑解剖学数据收集的含义。预期和经历的耻辱感仍然是患者舒适度和收集GI和解剖数据意愿的重大障碍,它们对实际数据收集的影响应在不同性别认同中进一步阐明。临床数据收集方法、工具和教育需要持续的研究投资,以进一步阐明最佳实践。
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引用次数: 0
Toward semantic interoperability of imaging and clinical data: reflections on the DICOM-OMOP integration framework. 影像和临床数据的语义互操作性:对DICOM-OMOP集成框架的思考。
IF 4.6 2区 医学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocaf215
Weihao Cheng, Zekai Yu
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引用次数: 0
Scalable confounding adjustment in real-world evidence: benchmarking data-adaptive and investigator-specified strategies in a large-scale trial emulation study. 真实世界证据中的可扩展混杂调整:在大规模试验模拟研究中对数据自适应和研究者指定策略进行基准测试。
IF 4.6 2区 医学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocaf204
Andrew R Weckstein, Shirley V Wang, Richard Wyss, Sebastian Schneeweiss

Objectives: Real-world evidence (RWE) increasingly informs clinical decisions, yet manual adjustment for confounding limits scalability. Data-adaptive (DA) algorithms for high-dimensional proxy adjustment show promise but have not been systematically compared to investigator-specified (IS) approaches across diverse treatment scenarios. We evaluated whether DA strategies perform comparably to manually curated IS models using claims-based emulations of 15 randomized trials from the RCT-DUPLICATE initiative.

Materials and methods: We identified new-user cohorts for 15 trial emulations in Optum's de-identified Clinformatics Data Mart Database (2004-2023). Treatment effects were estimated using 3 adjustment strategies: (1) IS models with manually tailored covariates; (2) full-DA strategies using empirical features from semiautomated pipelines; and (3) hybrid-DA models incorporating both empirical and investigator-defined covariates. Agreement with RCT benchmarks was assessed via binary metrics and difference-in-differences.

Results: Outcome-adaptive LASSO achieved better RWE-RCT agreement than IS adjustment in 73% of full-DA and 87% of hybrid-DA emulations. Other DA methods considering feature associations with both treatment and outcome performed similarly well, while models tuned solely for treatment prediction performed poorly. Performance of IS vs DA strategies differed across emulated trials.

Discussion: Top DA algorithms matched manual IS models on average, but impact varied by emulation. Case studies illustrate the continued importance of subject-matter knowledge, particularly for complex treatment strategies.

Conclusion: Data-adaptive algorithms show promise for scalable confounding adjustment in large-scale evidence systems and as augmentation tools for investigator-specified designs. Hybrid strategies combining algorithmic methods with investigator expertise offer the most reliable approach for individual causal questions.

目的:真实世界证据(RWE)越来越多地为临床决策提供信息,但人为调整混杂因素限制了可扩展性。用于高维代理调整的数据自适应(DA)算法显示出前景,但尚未在不同治疗方案中与研究者指定(IS)方法进行系统比较。我们使用来自RCT-DUPLICATE计划的15个随机试验的基于索赔的模拟来评估DA策略是否与人工策划的IS模型表现相当。材料和方法:我们在Optum的去识别临床数据集市数据库(2004-2023)中确定了15个试验模拟的新用户队列。采用3种调整策略估计治疗效果:(1)人工定制协变量的IS模型;(2)基于半自动化管道经验特征的全数据分析策略;(3)结合实证变量和研究者定义协变量的混合数据分析模型。通过二元指标和差中差评估与RCT基准的一致性。结果:结果自适应LASSO在73%的全da和87%的混合da模拟中获得了比IS调整更好的RWE-RCT一致性。其他考虑到与治疗和结果的特征关联的数据分析方法同样表现良好,而仅针对治疗预测进行调整的模型表现不佳。在模拟试验中,IS和DA策略的性能存在差异。讨论:顶级数据处理算法平均匹配手动IS模型,但影响因仿真而异。案例研究说明了主题知识的持续重要性,特别是对于复杂的治疗策略。结论:数据自适应算法有望在大规模证据系统中进行可扩展的混杂调整,并作为调查员指定设计的增强工具。混合策略结合算法方法和调查员的专业知识,为个别因果问题提供了最可靠的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Development and application of desiderata for automated clinical ordering. 临床自动点单所需数据的开发与应用。
IF 4.6 2区 医学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocaf152
Sameh N Saleh, Kevin B Johnson

Introduction: Automation of clinical orders in electronic health records (EHRs) has the potential to reduce clinician burden and enhance patient safety. However, determining which orders are appropriate for automation requires a structured framework to ensure clinical validity, transparency, and safety.

Objective: To develop and validate a framework of desiderata for assessing the appropriateness of automating clinical orders in EHRs and to demonstrate its operational value in a live health system dataset.

Materials and methods: The study comprised 4 phases to move from concept generation to real-world demonstration. First, we conducted focus group analyses using ground theory to identify themes and developed desiderata informed by these themes and existing literature. We validated the desiderata by surveying clinicians at a single institution, presenting 10 use cases to and assessing perceived appropriateness, cognitive support, and patient safety using a 4-point Likert scale. Survey results were compared to a priori appropriateness designations using t-tests. To evaluate operational impact, we analyzed one year of order-based alerts and orders (1.4 million firings alert and 44.1 million orders, respectively) using filtering rules and association rule mining to identify candidate orders for automation and their impact.

Results: We identified 8 desiderata for automated order appropriateness: logical consistency, data provenance, order transparency, context permanence, monitoring plans, trigger consistency, care team empowerment, and system accountability. Use cases deemed appropriate based on these criteria received significantly higher scores for appropriateness (3.13 ± 0.84 vs 2.30 ± 0.99), cognitive support (3.08 ± 0.82 vs 2.25 ± 0.94), and patient safety (3.08 ± 0.86 vs 2.21 ± 0.98) (all P < .001) compared to those considered inappropriate. Operational analysis revealed an alert firing 19 109 times annually, with a 96% signed order rate, where automation could save an estimated 26.5 provider hours per year. Additionally, an association rule with 16 628 occurrences (68.4% confidence) suggested automation could save 15.8 hours annually and yield 8000 additional appropriate orders.

Discussion: The desiderata align with clinician perceptions and provide a structured approach for evaluating automated orders. Our findings highlight the potential for automation of certain clinical orders to improve cognitive support while maintaining patient safety.

Conclusion: Healthcare systems should use these desiderata, coupled with data mining techniques, to systematically identify and govern appropriate automated orders. Further research is needed to validate operational scalability.

简介:电子健康记录(EHRs)中临床医嘱的自动化有可能减轻临床医生的负担,提高患者的安全。然而,确定哪些订单适合自动化需要一个结构化的框架,以确保临床有效性、透明度和安全性。目的:开发和验证一个理想的框架,用于评估在电子病历中自动化临床医嘱的适当性,并展示其在实时卫生系统数据集中的操作价值。材料和方法:研究分为四个阶段,从概念产生到现实世界的演示。首先,我们使用基础理论进行焦点小组分析,以确定主题,并根据这些主题和现有文献开发出所需的数据。我们通过调查单个机构的临床医生来验证期望,提出10个用例,并使用4点李克特量表评估感知适当性、认知支持和患者安全性。使用t检验将调查结果与先验适当性指定进行比较。为了评估运营影响,我们使用过滤规则和关联规则挖掘分析了一年的基于订单的警报和订单(分别为140万解雇警报和4410万订单),以确定自动化的候选订单及其影响。结果:我们确定了自动化订单适当性的8个需求:逻辑一致性、数据来源、订单透明度、上下文持久性、监控计划、触发一致性、护理团队授权和系统责任。基于这些标准认为合适的用例在适当性(3.13±0.84 vs 2.30±0.99)、认知支持(3.08±0.82 vs 2.25±0.94)和患者安全性(3.08±0.86 vs 2.21±0.98)方面获得了显着更高的分数(所有P)讨论:期望与临床医生的看法一致,并提供了评估自动化订单的结构化方法。我们的研究结果强调了某些临床医嘱自动化的潜力,以提高认知支持,同时维护患者安全。结论:医疗保健系统应该使用这些理想的数据,结合数据挖掘技术,系统地识别和管理适当的自动化订单。需要进一步的研究来验证操作的可扩展性。
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引用次数: 0
Frameworks and methods. 框架和方法。
IF 4.6 2区 医学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocaf191
Suzanne Bakken
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引用次数: 0
Hillclimb-Causal Inference: a data-driven approach to identify causal pathways among parental behaviors, genetic risk, and externalizing behaviors in children. 爬山-因果推理:一种数据驱动的方法来识别父母行为、遗传风险和儿童外化行为之间的因果途径。
IF 4.6 2区 医学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocaf153
Mengman Wei, Qian Peng

Objectives: Externalizing behaviors in children, such as aggression, hyperactivity, and defiance, are influenced by complex interplays between genetic predispositions and environmental factors, particularly parental behaviors. Unraveling these intricate causal relationships can benefit from the use of robust data-driven methods.

Materials and methods: We developed "Hillclimb-Causal Inference," a causal discovery approach that integrates the Hill Climb Search algorithm with a customized Linear Gaussian Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). This method was applied to data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study, which included parental behavior assessments, children's genotypes, and externalizing behavior measures. We performed dimensionality reduction to address multicollinearity among parental behaviors and assessed children's genetic risk for externalizing disorders using polygenic risk scores (PRS), which were computed based on GWAS summary statistics from independent cohorts. Once the causal pathways were identified, we employed structural equation modeling (SEM) to quantify the relationships within the model.

Results: We identified prominent causal pathways linking parental behaviors to children's externalizing outcomes. Parental alcohol misuse and broader behavioral issues exhibited notably stronger direct effects (0.33 and 0.20, respectively) compared to children's PRS (0.07). Moreover, when considering both direct and indirect paths, parental substance misuse (alcohol, drugs, and tobacco) collectively resulted in a total effect exceeding 1.1 on externalizing behaviors. Bootstrap and sensitivity analyses further validated the robustness of these findings.

Discussion and conclusion: Parental behaviors exert larger effects on children's externalizing outcomes than genetic risk, suggesting potential targets for prevention and intervention. The Hillclimb-Causal framework provides a general, data-driven way to map causal pathways in developmental psychiatry and related domains.

目的:儿童的外化行为,如攻击、多动和反抗,受到遗传倾向和环境因素(尤其是父母行为)之间复杂的相互作用的影响。揭示这些复杂的因果关系可以从使用健壮的数据驱动方法中受益。材料和方法:我们开发了“爬山-因果推理”,这是一种因果发现方法,将爬山搜索算法与定制的线性高斯贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)集成在一起。该方法应用于青少年大脑认知发展(ABCD)研究的数据,包括父母行为评估、儿童基因型和外化行为测量。我们进行了降维,以解决父母行为之间的多重共线性,并使用多基因风险评分(PRS)评估儿童外部性疾病的遗传风险,PRS是基于独立队列的GWAS汇总统计数据计算的。一旦确定了因果关系,我们采用结构方程模型(SEM)来量化模型内的关系。结果:我们确定了将父母行为与儿童外化结果联系起来的重要因果途径。与儿童的PRS(0.07)相比,父母酒精滥用和更广泛的行为问题表现出明显更强的直接影响(分别为0.33和0.20)。此外,当考虑直接和间接途径时,父母物质滥用(酒精,毒品和烟草)共同导致外化行为的总效应超过1.1。Bootstrap和敏感性分析进一步验证了这些发现的稳健性。讨论与结论:父母行为对儿童外化结局的影响大于遗传风险,提示了预防和干预的潜在目标。Hillclimb-Causal框架提供了一种通用的、数据驱动的方法来绘制发展精神病学和相关领域的因果路径。
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引用次数: 0
Zero-shot medical event prediction using a generative pretrained transformer on electronic health records. 基于电子健康记录的生成式预训练变压器的零射击医疗事件预测。
IF 4.6 2区 医学 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocaf160
Ekaterina Redekop, Zichen Wang, Rushikesh Kulkarni, Mara Pleasure, Aaron Chin, Hamid Reza Hassanzadeh, Brian L Hill, Melika Emami, William F Speier, Corey W Arnold

Objectives: Longitudinal data in electronic health records (EHRs) represent an individual's clinical history through a sequence of codified concepts, including diagnoses, procedures, medications, and laboratory tests. Generative pretrained transformers (GPT) can leverage this data to predict future events. While fine-tuning of these models can enhance task-specific performance, it becomes costly when applied to many clinical prediction tasks. In contrast, a pretrained foundation model can be used in zero-shot forecasting setting, offering a scalable alternative to fine-tuning separate models for each outcome.

Materials and methods: This study presents the first comprehensive analysis of zero-shot forecasting with GPT-based foundational models in EHRs, introducing a novel pipeline that formulates medical concept prediction as a generative modeling task. Unlike supervised approaches requiring extensive labeled data, our method enables the model to forecast the next medical event purely from a pretraining knowledge. We evaluate performance across multiple time horizons and clinical categories, demonstrating model's ability to capture latent temporal dependencies and complex patient trajectories without task supervision.

Results: The model's performance in predicting the next medical concept was evaluated using precision and recall metrics, achieving an average top-1 precision of 0.614 and recall of 0.524. For 12 major diagnostic conditions, the model demonstrated strong zero-shot performance, achieving high true positive rates while maintaining low false positives.

Discussion: We demonstrate the power of a foundational EHR GPT model in capturing diverse phenotypes and enabling robust, zero-shot forecasting of clinical outcomes. This capability highlights both its versatility across conditions like liver cancer and SLE, and its limitations in more ambiguous settings such as depression, while also revealing meaningful latent clinical structure.

Conclusion: This capability enhances the versatility of predictive healthcare models and reduces the need for task-specific training, enabling more scalable applications in clinical settings.

目的:电子健康记录(EHRs)中的纵向数据通过一系列编纂的概念代表个人的临床病史,包括诊断、程序、药物和实验室测试。生成式预训练变压器(GPT)可以利用这些数据来预测未来的事件。虽然这些模型的微调可以提高特定任务的性能,但当应用于许多临床预测任务时,它变得昂贵。相比之下,预训练的基础模型可用于零概率预测设置,为每个结果提供可扩展的替代方案,以微调单独的模型。材料和方法:本研究首次全面分析了电子病历中基于gpt的基础模型的零概率预测,引入了一种将医学概念预测作为生成建模任务的新管道。与需要大量标记数据的监督方法不同,我们的方法使模型能够纯粹从预训练知识中预测下一个医疗事件。我们评估了多个时间范围和临床类别的性能,展示了模型在没有任务监督的情况下捕获潜在时间依赖性和复杂患者轨迹的能力。结果:该模型在预测下一个医学概念方面的性能使用精度和召回率指标进行评估,平均前1精度为0.614,召回率为0.524。对于12种主要诊断条件,该模型表现出强大的零射击性能,在保持低假阳性的同时实现高真阳性率。讨论:我们展示了基础EHR GPT模型在捕获不同表型和实现临床结果的稳健、零概率预测方面的能力。这种能力突出了它在肝癌和SLE等疾病中的通用性,以及在抑郁症等更模糊的情况下的局限性,同时也揭示了有意义的潜在临床结构。结论:该功能增强了预测性医疗模型的多功能性,减少了对特定于任务的培训的需求,从而在临床环境中实现了更具可扩展性的应用程序。
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Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association
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