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Federated Diabetes Prediction in Canadian Adults Using Real-world Cross-Province Primary Care Data 利用真实的跨省初级保健数据对加拿大成年人进行联合糖尿病预测
Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: arxiv-2408.12029
Guojun Tang, Jason E. Black, Tyler S. Williamson, Steve H. Drew
Integrating Electronic Health Records (EHR) and the application of machinelearning present opportunities for enhancing the accuracy and accessibility ofdata-driven diabetes prediction. In particular, developing data-driven machinelearning models can provide early identification of patients with high risk fordiabetes, potentially leading to more effective therapeutic strategies andreduced healthcare costs. However, regulation restrictions create barriers todeveloping centralized predictive models. This paper addresses the challengesby introducing a federated learning approach, which amalgamates predictivemodels without centralized data storage and processing, thus avoiding privacyissues. This marks the first application of federated learning to predictdiabetes using real clinical datasets in Canada extracted from the CanadianPrimary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network (CPCSSN) without crossprovincepatient data sharing. We address class-imbalance issues through downsamplingtechniques and compare federated learning performance against province-basedand centralized models. Experimental results show that the federated MLP modelpresents a similar or higher performance compared to the model trained with thecentralized approach. However, the federated logistic regression model showedinferior performance compared to its centralized peer.
整合电子健康记录(EHR)和机器学习的应用为提高数据驱动的糖尿病预测的准确性和可及性带来了机遇。特别是,开发数据驱动的机器学习模型可以及早识别糖尿病高风险患者,从而有可能制定更有效的治疗策略并降低医疗成本。然而,监管限制给开发集中式预测模型造成了障碍。本文通过引入联合学习方法来应对这些挑战,该方法无需集中式数据存储和处理即可合并预测模型,从而避免了隐私问题。这是联合学习在加拿大的首次应用,它使用从加拿大初级保健哨点监测网络(CPCSSN)中提取的真实临床数据集预测糖尿病,无需跨省共享患者数据。我们通过下采样技术解决了类不平衡问题,并将联合学习的性能与基于省的模型和集中模型进行了比较。实验结果表明,联合 MLP 模型与集中式方法训练的模型相比,具有相似或更高的性能。然而,联合逻辑回归模型的性能却低于集中式模型。
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引用次数: 0
Chemical Reaction Neural Networks for Fitting Accelerated Rate Calorimetry Data 拟合加速速率量热数据的化学反应神经网络
Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: arxiv-2408.11984
Saakaar Bhatnagar, Andrew Comerford, Zelu Xu, Davide Berti Polato, Araz Banaeizadeh, Alessandro Ferraris
As the demand for lithium-ion batteries rapidly increases there is a need todesign these cells in a safe manner to mitigate thermal runaway. Thermalrunaway in batteries leads to an uncontrollable temperature rise andpotentially fires, which is a major safety concern. Typically, when modellingthe chemical kinetics of thermal runaway calorimetry data ( e.g. AcceleratedRate Calorimetry (ARC)) is needed to determine the temperature-drivendecomposition kinetics. Conventional methods of fitting Arrhenius OrdinaryDifferential Equation (ODE) thermal runaway models to Accelerated RateCalorimetry (ARC) data make several assumptions that reduce the fidelity andgeneralizability of the obtained model. In this paper, Chemical Reaction NeuralNetworks (CRNNs) are trained to fit the kinetic parameters of N-equationArrhenius ODEs to ARC data obtained from a Molicel 21700 P45B. The models arefound to be better approximations of the experimental data. The flexibility ofthe method is demonstrated by experimenting with two-equation and four-equationmodels. Thermal runaway simulations are conducted in 3D using the obtainedkinetic parameters, showing the applicability of the obtained thermal runawaymodels to large-scale simulations.
随着对锂离子电池需求的快速增长,有必要以安全的方式设计这些电池,以减少热失控。电池中的热失控会导致无法控制的温度上升,并可能引发火灾,这是一个重大的安全问题。通常情况下,在对热失控的化学动力学进行建模时,需要使用量热数据(如加速速率量热法 (ARC))来确定温度驱动的分解动力学。将阿伦尼乌斯常微分方程(ODE)热失控模型拟合到加速速率量热仪(ARC)数据的传统方法会做出一些假设,从而降低所获模型的保真度和通用性。本文训练了化学反应神经网络 (CRNN),以拟合 N 方程阿伦尼乌斯 ODE 的动力学参数和从 Molicel 21700 P45B 获取的 ARC 数据。结果发现这些模型能更好地逼近实验数据。通过对两方程和四方程模型的实验,证明了该方法的灵活性。利用所获得的动力学参数进行了三维热失控模拟,表明所获得的热失控模型适用于大规模模拟。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing skin thermal injury risk in exposure tests of heating until flight 评估飞行前加热暴露试验中的皮肤热损伤风险
Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: arxiv-2408.11947
Hongyun Wang, Shannon E. Foley, Hong Zhou
We assess the skin thermal injury risk in the situation where a test subjectis exposed to an electromagnetic beam until the occurrence of flight action.The physical process is modeled as follows. The absorbed electromagnetic powerincreases the skin temperature. Wherever it is above a temperature threshold,thermal nociceptors are activated and transduce an electrical signal. When theactivated skin volume reaches a threshold, the flight signal is initiated.After the delay of human reaction time, the flight action is materialized whenthe subject moves away or the beam power is turned off. The injury risk isquantified by the thermal damage parameter calculated in the Arrheniusequation. It depends on the beam power density absorbed into the skin, which isnot measurable. In addition, the volume threshold for flight initiation isunknown. To circumference these difficulties, we normalize the formulation andwrite the thermal damage parameter in terms of the occurrence time of flightaction, which is reliably observed in exposure tests. This thermal injuryformulation provides a viable framework for investigating the effects of modelparameters.
我们对试验对象暴露在电磁波束中直至发生飞行动作时的皮肤热损伤风险进行了评估。吸收的电磁功率会使皮肤温度升高。只要皮肤温度高于温度阈值,热敏感受器就会被激活并传递电信号。当激活的皮肤体积达到阈值时,飞行信号就会启动。经过人类反应时间的延迟后,当被测物远离或光束功率关闭时,飞行动作就会实现。伤害风险由阿伦尼公式计算的热损伤参数来量化。它取决于皮肤吸收的光束功率密度,而这是无法测量的。此外,飞行启动的体积阈值也是未知的。为了规避这些困难,我们对该公式进行了归一化处理,并以在暴露试验中可靠观测到的飞行动作发生时间来编写热损伤参数。这种热损伤公式为研究模型参数的影响提供了一个可行的框架。
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引用次数: 0
The Evolution of Reinforcement Learning in Quantitative Finance 强化学习在量化金融领域的演变
Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: arxiv-2408.10932
Nikolaos Pippas, Cagatay Turkay, Elliot A. Ludvig
Reinforcement Learning (RL) has experienced significant advancement over thepast decade, prompting a growing interest in applications within finance. Thissurvey critically evaluates 167 publications, exploring diverse RL applicationsand frameworks in finance. Financial markets, marked by their complexity,multi-agent nature, information asymmetry, and inherent randomness, serve as anintriguing test-bed for RL. Traditional finance offers certain solutions, andRL advances these with a more dynamic approach, incorporating machine learningmethods, including transfer learning, meta-learning, and multi-agent solutions.This survey dissects key RL components through the lens of QuantitativeFinance. We uncover emerging themes, propose areas for future research, andcritique the strengths and weaknesses of existing methods.
强化学习(RL)在过去十年中取得了长足的进步,促使人们对其在金融领域的应用越来越感兴趣。本调查对 167 篇出版物进行了严格评估,探讨了强化学习在金融领域的各种应用和框架。金融市场具有复杂性、多代理性、信息不对称和固有随机性等特点,是 RL 的一个重要试验场。传统金融学提供了一些解决方案,而 RL 则以一种更动态的方法推进了这些解决方案,并结合了机器学习方法,包括迁移学习、元学习和多代理解决方案。我们揭示了新出现的主题,提出了未来研究的领域,并对现有方法的优缺点进行了批判。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of the Plan Vélo I and II on vehicular flow in Paris -- An Empirical Analysis 一期和二期 Vélo 计划对巴黎车流量的影响--实证分析
Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: arxiv-2408.09836
Elena Natterer, Allister Loder, Klaus Bogenberger
In recent years, Paris, France, transformed its transportationinfrastructure, marked by a notable reallocation of space away from cars toactive modes of transportation. Key initiatives driving this transformationincluded Plan V'elo I and II, during which the city created over 1,000kilometres of new bike paths to encourage cycling. For this, substantial roadcapacity has been removed from the system. This transformation provides aunique opportunity to investigate the impact of the large-scale networkre-configuration on the network-wide traffic flow. Using the NetworkFundamental Diagram (NFD) and a re-sampling methodology for its estimation, weinvestigate with empirical loop detector data from 2010 and 2023 the impact onthe network's capacity, critical density, and free-flow speed resulting fromthese policy interventions. We find that in the urban core with the most policyinterventions, per lane capacity decreased by over 50%, accompanied by a 60%drop in free-flow speed. Similarly, in the zone with fewer interventions,capacity declined by 34%, with a 40% reduction in free-flow speed. While thesechanges seem substantial, the NFDs show that overall congestion did notincrease, indicating a modal shift to other modes of transport and hencepresumably more sustainable urban mobility.
近年来,法国巴黎对其交通基础设施进行了改造,其显著特点是将空间从汽车重新分配给积极的交通方式。推动这一转变的关键举措包括 "V/'elo 计划 "一期和二期,在此期间,巴黎新建了 1000 多公里的自行车道,以鼓励骑自行车出行。为此,该系统取消了大量的道路容量。这一转变为研究大规模网络重新配置对整个网络交通流量的影响提供了一个独特的机会。利用网络基本图(NFD)和重新抽样估算方法,我们通过 2010 年和 2023 年的环路检测器经验数据,研究了这些政策干预措施对网络容量、临界密度和自由流速度的影响。我们发现,在政策干预最多的城市核心区,每条车道的通行能力下降了 50%以上,同时自由流速度下降了 60%。同样,在干预措施较少的区域,容量下降了 34%,自由流动速度下降了 40%。虽然这些变化看似巨大,但 NFD 显示总体拥堵并没有加剧,这表明交通模式已转向其他交通方式,因此城市交通的可持续发展性可能更强。
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引用次数: 0
BatGPT-Chem: A Foundation Large Model For Retrosynthesis Prediction BatGPT-Chem:用于逆合成预测的大型基础模型
Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: arxiv-2408.10285
Yifei Yang, Runhan Shi, Zuchao Li, Shu Jiang, Bao-Liang Lu, Yang Yang, Hai Zhao
Retrosynthesis analysis is pivotal yet challenging in drug discovery andorganic chemistry. Despite the proliferation of computational tools over thepast decade, AI-based systems often fall short in generalizing across diversereaction types and exploring alternative synthetic pathways. This paperpresents BatGPT-Chem, a large language model with 15 billion parameters,tailored for enhanced retrosynthesis prediction. Integrating chemical tasks viaa unified framework of natural language and SMILES notation, this approachsynthesizes extensive instructional data from an expansive chemical database.Employing both autoregressive and bidirectional training techniques across overone hundred million instances, BatGPT-Chem captures a broad spectrum ofchemical knowledge, enabling precise prediction of reaction conditions andexhibiting strong zero-shot capabilities. Superior to existing AI methods, ourmodel demonstrates significant advancements in generating effective strategiesfor complex molecules, as validated by stringent benchmark tests. BatGPT-Chemnot only boosts the efficiency and creativity of retrosynthetic analysis butalso establishes a new standard for computational tools in synthetic design.This development empowers chemists to adeptly address the synthesis of novelcompounds, potentially expediting the innovation cycle in drug manufacturingand materials science. We release our trial platform aturl{https://www.batgpt.net/dapp/chem}.
逆合成分析在药物发现和无机化学中至关重要,但也极具挑战性。尽管计算工具在过去十年中不断涌现,但基于人工智能的系统在泛化各种反应类型和探索替代合成途径方面往往存在不足。本文介绍的 BatGPT-Chem 是一个拥有 150 亿个参数的大型语言模型,专为增强逆合成预测而量身定制。该方法通过自然语言和 SMILES 符号的统一框架整合了化学任务,并从庞大的化学数据库中合成了大量的教学数据。BatGPT-Chem 在超过 1 亿个实例中采用了自回归和双向训练技术,捕捉到了广泛的化学知识,实现了对反应条件的精确预测,并展现了强大的归零能力。与现有的人工智能方法相比,我们的模型在为复杂分子生成有效策略方面取得了显著进步,这一点通过严格的基准测试得到了验证。BatGPT-Chem 不仅提高了逆向合成分析的效率和创造性,还为合成设计领域的计算工具建立了新的标准。这项开发使化学家们能够熟练地解决新型化合物的合成问题,从而有可能加快药物制造和材料科学领域的创新周期。我们在(url{https://www.batgpt.net/dapp/chem}上发布了我们的试验平台。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-layer diffusion model of photovoltaic installations 光伏装置的多层扩散模型
Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: arxiv-2408.09904
Tomasz Weron, Janusz Szwabinski
Nowadays, harmful effects of climate change are becoming increasinglyapparent. A vital issue that must be addressed is the generation of energy fromnon-renewable and often polluted sources. For this reason, the development ofrenewable energy sources is of great importance. Unfortunately, too rapidspread of renewables can disrupt stability of the power system and lead toenergy blackouts. One should not simply support it, without ensuringsustainability and understanding of the diffusion process. In this research, wepropose a new agent-based model of diffusion of photovoltaic panels. It is anextension of the $q$-voter model that utilizes multi-layer network structure.The model is analyzed by Monte Carlo simulations and mean-field approximation.The impact of parameters and specifications on the basic properties of themodel is discussed.
如今,气候变化的有害影响日益明显。必须解决的一个重要问题是利用不可再生且经常受到污染的能源生产能源。因此,开发可再生能源至关重要。遗憾的是,可再生能源的过快普及会破坏电力系统的稳定,导致能源大停电。因此,在不确保可持续发展和不了解推广过程的情况下,我们不能简单地支持可再生能源的发展。在这项研究中,我们提出了一个新的基于代理的光伏电池板扩散模型。该模型通过蒙特卡罗模拟和平均场近似进行分析,并讨论了参数和规格对模型基本特性的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Provide Proactive Reproducible Analysis Transparency with Every Publication 在每份出版物中主动提供可重复的分析透明度
Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: arxiv-2408.09103
Paul Meijer, Nicole Howard, Jessica Liang, Autumn Kelsey, Sathya Subramanian, Ed Johnson, Paul Mariz, James Harvey, Madeline Ambrose, Vitalii Tereshchenko, Aldan Beaubien, Neelima Inala, Yousef Aggoune, Stark Pister, Anne Vetto, Melissa Kinsey, Tom Bumol, Ananda Goldrath, Xiaojun Li, Troy Torgerson, Peter Skene, Lauren Okada, Christian La France, Zach Thomson, Lucas Graybuck
The high incidence of irreproducible research has led to urgent appeals fortransparency and equitable practices in open science. For the scientificdisciplines that rely on computationally intensive analyses of large data sets,a granular understanding of the analysis methodology is an essential componentof reproducibility. This paper discusses the guiding principles of acomputational reproducibility framework that enables a scientist to proactivelygenerate a complete reproducible trace as analysis unfolds, and share data,methods and executable tools as part of a scientific publication, allowingother researchers to verify results and easily re-execute the steps of thescientific investigation.
不可再现研究的高发率导致人们迫切呼吁开放科学中的透明度和公平实践。对于依赖对大型数据集进行计算密集型分析的科学学科来说,对分析方法的细致了解是可重复性的重要组成部分。本文讨论了计算可重复性框架的指导原则,该框架能让科学家在分析过程中主动生成完整的可重复性跟踪,并将数据、方法和可执行工具作为科学出版物的一部分进行共享,从而让其他研究人员能够验证结果并轻松地重新执行科学调查的各个步骤。
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引用次数: 0
ADformer: A Multi-Granularity Transformer for EEG-Based Alzheimer's Disease Assessment ADformer:基于脑电图的阿尔茨海默病评估多粒度变换器
Pub Date : 2024-08-17 DOI: arxiv-2409.00032
Yihe Wang, Nadia Mammone, Darina Petrovsky, Alexandros T. Tzallas, Francesco C. Morabito, Xiang Zhang
Electroencephalogram (EEG) has emerged as a cost-effective and efficientmethod for supporting neurologists in assessing Alzheimer's disease (AD).Existing approaches predominantly utilize handcrafted features or ConvolutionalNeural Network (CNN)-based methods. However, the potential of the transformerarchitecture, which has shown promising results in various time series analysistasks, remains underexplored in interpreting EEG for AD assessment.Furthermore, most studies are evaluated on the subject-dependent setup butoften overlook the significance of the subject-independent setup. To addressthese gaps, we present ADformer, a novel multi-granularity transformer designedto capture temporal and spatial features to learn effective EEGrepresentations. We employ multi-granularity data embedding across bothdimensions and utilize self-attention to learn local features within eachgranularity and global features among different granularities. We conductexperiments across 5 datasets with a total of 525 subjects in setups includingsubject-dependent, subject-independent, and leave-subjects-out. Our resultsshow that ADformer outperforms existing methods in most evaluations, achievingF1 scores of 75.19% and 93.58% on two large datasets with 65 subjects and 126subjects, respectively, in distinguishing AD and healthy control (HC) subjectsunder the challenging subject-independent setup.
脑电图(EEG)已成为支持神经学家评估阿尔茨海默病(AD)的一种经济高效的方法。然而,在各种时间序列分析任务中显示出良好效果的变压器架构,在解读脑电图以评估注意力缺失症方面的潜力仍未得到充分发掘。此外,大多数研究都是在与受试者相关的设置上进行评估,但往往忽略了与受试者无关的设置的重要性。为了弥补这些不足,我们提出了 ADformer,这是一种新型多粒度变换器,旨在捕捉时间和空间特征以学习有效的脑电图描述。我们采用跨两个维度的多粒度数据嵌入,并利用自我关注来学习每个粒度内的局部特征和不同粒度间的全局特征。我们在 5 个数据集上进行了实验,共有 525 名受试者参加,实验设置包括依赖受试者、不依赖受试者和排除受试者。我们的结果表明,ADformer 在大多数评估中的表现都优于现有方法,在两个分别有 65 名受试者和 126 名受试者的大型数据集上,ADformer 的 F1 分数分别达到了 75.19% 和 93.58%,在具有挑战性的受试者独立设置下,ADformer 可以区分 AD 受试者和健康对照组(HC)受试者。
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引用次数: 0
Partitioned Surrogates and Thompson Sampling for Multidisciplinary Bayesian Optimization 多学科贝叶斯优化的分区代理和汤普森取样
Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: arxiv-2408.08691
Susanna Baars, Jigar Parekh, Ihar Antonau, Philipp Bekemeyer, Ulrich Römer
The long runtime associated with simulating multidisciplinary systemschallenges the use of Bayesian optimization for multidisciplinary designoptimization (MDO). This is particularly the case if the coupled system ismodeled in a partitioned manner and feedback loops, known as strong coupling,are present. This work introduces a method for Bayesian optimization in MDOcalled "Multidisciplinary Design Optimization using Thompson Sampling",abbreviated as MDO-TS. Instead of replacing the whole system with a surrogate,we substitute each discipline with such a Gaussian process. Since an entiremultidisciplinary analysis is no longer required for enrichment, evaluationscan potentially be saved. However, the objective and associated uncertainty areno longer analytically estimated. Since most adaptive sampling strategiesassume the availability of these estimates, they cannot be applied withoutmodification. Thompson sampling does not require this explicit availability.Instead, Thompson sampling balances exploration and exploitation by selectingactions based on optimizing random samples from the objective. We combineThompson sampling with an approximate sampling strategy that uses randomFourier features. This approach produces continuous functions that can beevaluated iteratively. We study the application of this infill criterion toboth an analytical problem and the shape optimization of a simplefluid-structure interaction example.
多学科系统仿真的运行时间较长,这给使用贝叶斯优化技术进行多学科设计优化(MDO)带来了挑战。如果耦合系统以分区方式建模,并且存在反馈回路(即强耦合),则情况尤其如此。本研究介绍了一种在 MDO 中进行贝叶斯优化的方法,称为 "使用汤普森采样的多学科设计优化",简称 MDO-TS。我们不是用一个代理变量来代替整个系统,而是用这样一个高斯过程来代替每个学科。由于不再需要整个多学科分析来充实系统,因此有可能节省评估工作。但是,目标和相关的不确定性不再需要分析估计。由于大多数适应性取样策略都假定可以获得这些估计值,因此在不进行修改的情况下无法应用。汤普森取样不需要这种明确的可用性。相反,汤普森取样通过从目标中优化随机样本来选择行动,从而平衡了探索和开发。我们将汤普森采样与使用随机傅立叶特征的近似采样策略相结合。这种方法产生的连续函数可以进行迭代评估。我们研究了这种填充准则在一个分析问题和一个简单流体与结构相互作用实例的形状优化中的应用。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
arXiv - CS - Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science
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