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SynBPS: a parametric simulation framework for the generation of event-log data SynBPS:用于生成事件日志数据的参数模拟框架
Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1177/00375497241233326
Mike Riess
In the pursuit of ecological validity, current business process simulation methods are calibrated to data from existing processes. This is important for realistic what-if analysis in the context of these processes. However, this is not always the “right tool for the job.” To test hypotheses in the area of predictive process monitoring, it can be more helpful to simulate event-log data from a theoretical process, where all aspects can be manipulated. One example is when assessing the influence of process complexity or variability on the performance of a new prediction method. In this case, the ability to include control variables and systematically change process characteristics is a key to fully understanding their influence. Calibrating a simulation model from observed data alone can in these cases be limiting. This paper proposes a simulation framework, Synthetic Business Process Simulation (SynBPS), a Python library for the generation of event-log data from synthetic processes. Aspects such as process complexity, stability, trace distribution, duration distribution, and case arrivals can be fully controlled by the user. The overall architecture is described in detail, and a demonstration of the framework is presented.
为了追求生态有效性,目前的业务流程模拟方法都是根据现有流程的数据进行校准的。这对于在这些流程背景下进行切合实际的假设分析非常重要。然而,这并不总是 "合适的工具"。要测试预测性流程监控领域的假设,模拟来自理论流程的事件日志数据可能更有帮助,因为理论流程的所有方面都可以进行操作。其中一个例子是评估流程复杂性或可变性对新预测方法性能的影响。在这种情况下,包含控制变量和系统改变过程特征的能力是充分了解其影响的关键。在这种情况下,仅根据观测数据校准仿真模型可能会受到限制。本文提出了一个仿真框架--合成业务流程仿真(SynBPS),这是一个用于生成合成流程事件日志数据的 Python 库。用户可以完全控制流程的复杂性、稳定性、跟踪分布、持续时间分布和案例到达等方面。本文详细介绍了整体架构,并演示了该框架。
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引用次数: 0
A neural network approach for population synthesis 群体合成的神经网络方法
Pub Date : 2024-03-11 DOI: 10.1177/00375497241233597
Gregory Albiston, Taha Osman, David Brown
This work explores techniques and metrics applied to the process of population synthesis used in activity-based modeling for traffic and transport simulation. The paper presents a novel population synthesis approach based on applying artificial neural networks (ANNs) and evaluates the approach against techniques derived from iterative proportional fitting (IPF), Bayesian networks, and data sampling methods. The documented research also investigates the appropriateness of goodness-of-fit measures and the need to consider similarity measures in assessing technique effectiveness with a focus on measures derived from Jaccard similarity coefficient. We established that IPF techniques should be preferred when datasets with the required composition are available, targeting few output variables and in relatively large zones of 5% region size. However, in smaller zones with sparser datasets, or inadequate dataset composition, the proposed ANN technique and identified sampling method are favorable. The proposed ANN method shows suitability for the population synthesis problem compared with the examined methods, but further work is required to improve model fitting speed, explore mixture models of multiple ANNs, and apply data reduction techniques to reduce the observation–decision space. The research findings also established that comparing scenarios of varying sizes and variable numbers is challenging when employing specific goodness-of-fit measures. Furthermore, the mentioned similarity measures can reveal concerns regarding inconsistent archetypes and low-quality populations that can remain concealed when using error metrics.
这项研究探讨了应用于交通和运输模拟中基于活动的建模过程中的人口合成技术和指标。论文介绍了一种基于人工神经网络(ANN)的新型人口合成方法,并将该方法与迭代比例拟合(IPF)、贝叶斯网络和数据采样方法等技术进行了对比评估。所记录的研究还调查了拟合优度测量的适当性,以及在评估技术有效性时考虑相似性测量的必要性,重点是由 Jaccard 相似性系数得出的测量。我们认为,如果数据集具有所需的构成,针对的输出变量较少,且区域面积为 5%的相对较大的区域,则应首选 IPF 技术。然而,在数据集较稀少或数据集组成不充分的较小区域,拟议的 ANN 技术和确定的抽样方法是有利的。与已研究过的方法相比,拟议的 ANN 方法显示出对种群合成问题的适用性,但还需要进一步提高模型拟合速度,探索多个 ANN 的混合模型,并应用数据缩减技术来缩小观测-决策空间。研究结果还表明,在采用特定的拟合优度测量方法时,比较不同规模和变量数量的方案具有挑战性。此外,所提到的相似性度量可以揭示不一致的原型和低质量人群方面的问题,而这些问题在使用误差度量时可能会被掩盖。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Effective numerical simulations of synchronous generator system” 同步发电机系统的有效数值模拟 "的更正
Pub Date : 2024-03-09 DOI: 10.1177/00375497241240230
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引用次数: 0
Effective numerical simulations of synchronous generator system 同步发电机系统的有效数值模拟
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.1177/00375497241231986
Jiawei Zhang, Aiqing Zhu, Feng Ji, Chang Lin, Yifa Tang
Synchronous generator system is a complicated dynamic system for energy transmission, which plays an important role in modern industrial production. In this article, we propose some predictor-corrector methods and structure-preserving methods for a generator system based on the first benchmark model of subsynchronous resonance, among which the structure-preserving methods preserve a Dirac structure associated with the so-called port-Hamiltonian descriptor systems. To illustrate this, the simplified generator system in the form of index-1 differential-algebraic equations has been derived. Our analyses provide the global error estimates for a special class of structure-preserving methods called Gauss methods, which guarantee their superior performance over the PSCAD/EMTDC and the predictor-corrector methods in terms of computational stability. Numerical simulations are implemented to verify the effectiveness and advantages of our methods.
同步发电机系统是一种复杂的能量传输动态系统,在现代工业生产中发挥着重要作用。本文基于亚同步共振的第一个基准模型,针对发电机系统提出了一些预测-校正方法和结构保持方法,其中结构保持方法保留了与所谓端口-哈密尔顿描述子系统相关的狄拉克结构。为了说明这一点,我们导出了索引-1 微分代数方程形式的简化发电机系统。我们的分析为一类特殊的结构保留方法(称为高斯方法)提供了全局误差估计,保证了它们在计算稳定性方面优于 PSCAD/EMTDC 和预测-修正方法。通过数值模拟验证了我们方法的有效性和优势。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental evaluation of a machine learning approach to improve the reproducibility of network simulations 对提高网络模拟可重复性的机器学习方法进行实验评估
Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1177/00375497241229753
Luke Liang, Hieu Phan, Philippe J Giabbanelli
A stochastic network simulation is verified when its distribution of outputs is aligned with the ground truth, while tolerating deviations due to variability in real-world measurements and the randomness of a stochastic simulation. However, comparing distributions may yield false positives, as erroneous simulations may have the expected distribution yet present aberrations in low-level patterns. For instance, the number of sick individuals may present the right trend over time, but the wrong individuals were infected. We previously proposed an approach that transforms simulation traces into images verified by machine learning algorithms that account for low-level patterns. We demonstrated the viability of this approach when many simulation traces are compared with a large ground truth data set. However, ground truth data are often limited. For example, a publication may include few images of their simulation as illustrations; hence, teams that independently re-implement the model can only compare low-level patterns with few cases. In this paper, we examine whether our approach can be utilized with very small data sets (e.g., 5–10 images), as provided in publications. Depending on the network simulation model (e.g., rumor spread, cascading failure, and disease spread), we show that results obtained with little data can even surpass results obtained with moderate amounts of data at the cost of variability. Although a good accuracy is obtained in detecting several forms of errors, this paper is only a first step in the use of this technique for verification; hence, future works should assess the applicability of our approach to other types of network simulations.
当一个随机网络模拟的输出分布与基本事实一致时,它就得到了验证,同时还能容忍由于真实世界测量的可变性和随机模拟的随机性而产生的偏差。然而,比较分布可能会产生假阳性,因为错误的模拟可能具有预期的分布,但在低层次模式中出现异常。例如,患病个体的数量随着时间的推移可能呈现正确的趋势,但感染的个体却是错误的。我们之前提出了一种方法,将模拟痕迹转化为由机器学习算法验证的图像,这种算法考虑到了低层次模式。我们将许多模拟痕迹与大型地面实况数据集进行比较,证明了这种方法的可行性。然而,地面实况数据往往是有限的。例如,一份出版物可能只包含很少的仿真图像作为插图;因此,独立重新实施模型的团队只能用很少的案例来比较低层次模式。在本文中,我们将研究我们的方法是否适用于出版物中提供的极小数据集(如 5-10 幅图像)。根据网络模拟模型(如谣言传播、级联故障和疾病传播)的不同,我们发现用少量数据获得的结果甚至可以超过用中等数据量获得的结果,但代价是变异性。虽然在检测几种形式的错误方面取得了很好的准确性,但本文仅仅是使用该技术进行验证的第一步;因此,未来的工作应评估我们的方法是否适用于其他类型的网络模拟。
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引用次数: 0
A network-based simulation framework for robustness assessment of accessibility in healthcare systems with the consideration of cascade failures 基于网络的仿真框架,用于评估医疗保健系统中可及性的稳健性,并考虑级联故障
Pub Date : 2024-02-17 DOI: 10.1177/00375497241229750
Jiduo Xing, Shuai Lu
The accessibility of healthcare system is vulnerable to various types of hazards, where the failure of one system component may lead to a diffusion of the pressure and result in cascading failures. This study proposes a network-based simulation framework for robustness assessment of access to healthcare through integrating cascading failure mechanism. Weighted complex networks are constructed to model the accessible patient transfer under both general and elderly healthcare scenarios. The cascade failure mechanism is incorporated into the constructed networks, and several attack strategies (including random, initial degree (ID), initial betweenness (IB), recalculated degree (RD), and recalculated betweenness (RB) attack) are adopted to simulate the process of system robustness assessment. Results indicate that the proposed framework enables to discover the vulnerable nodes in the constructed healthcare accessibility networks, where the robustness metric combining network efficiency and relative size of the largest component acts as a benchmark; all the intentional attack strategies outperform the random attack strategy, which indicates the effectiveness of the detection of vulnerable healthcare facilities by the developed model; and the metrics of node degree and betweenness centrality make progress on identifying the vulnerable healthcare facility nodes, which should be taken heed of to optimize the management and operation of healthcare systems.
医疗系统的可及性很容易受到各类危害的影响,其中一个系统组件的失效可能会导致压力扩散,造成级联失效。本研究提出了一个基于网络的模拟框架,通过整合级联失效机制对医疗服务的可及性进行稳健性评估。本文构建了加权复杂网络,以模拟普通医疗和老年医疗情景下的无障碍病人转运。在构建的网络中加入了级联失效机制,并采用了几种攻击策略(包括随机攻击、初始度攻击(ID)、初始间度攻击(IB)、重新计算度攻击(RD)和重新计算间度攻击(RB))来模拟系统鲁棒性评估过程。结果表明,所提出的框架能够发现所构建的医疗无障碍网络中的脆弱节点,其中网络效率和最大分量的相对大小相结合的鲁棒性指标可作为基准;所有有意攻击策略的效果都优于随机攻击策略,这表明所开发模型对脆弱医疗设施的检测是有效的;节点度和间度中心性指标在识别脆弱医疗设施节点方面取得了进展,这对优化医疗系统的管理和运行是值得注意的。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating AI and DTs: challenges and opportunities in railway maintenance application and beyond 整合人工智能和 DT:铁路维护应用及其他领域的挑战与机遇
Pub Date : 2024-02-17 DOI: 10.1177/00375497241229756
Ruth Dirnfeld, Lorenzo De Donato, Alessandra Somma, Mehdi Saman Azari, Stefano Marrone, Francesco Flammini, Valeria Vittorini
In the last years, there has been a growing interest in the emerging concept of digital twin (DT) as it represents a promising paradigm to continuously monitor cyber–physical systems, as well as to test and validate predictability, safety, and reliability aspects. At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) is exponentially affirming as an extremely powerful tool when it comes to modeling the behavior of physical assets allowing, de facto, the possibility of making predictions on their potential evolution. However, despite the fact that DTs and AI (and their combination) can act as game-changing technologies in different domains (including the railways), several challenges have to be faced to ensure their effectiveness, especially when dealing with safety-critical systems. This paper provides a narrative review of the scientific literature on DTs for railway maintenance applications, with a special focus on their relationship with AI. The aim is to discuss the opportunities the integration of these two technologies could open in railway maintenance applications (and beyond), while highlighting the main challenges that should be overcome for its effective implementation.
近年来,人们对数字孪生(DT)这一新兴概念的兴趣与日俱增,因为它代表了一种可持续监控网络物理系统以及测试和验证可预测性、安全性和可靠性的前景广阔的模式。与此同时,人工智能(AI)作为一种极其强大的工具,在对物理资产的行为进行建模时发挥着越来越重要的作用。然而,尽管 DTs 和人工智能(及其组合)可以在不同领域(包括铁路)成为改变游戏规则的技术,但要确保其有效性,尤其是在处理安全关键系统时,还必须面对一些挑战。本文对有关铁路维护应用中 DTs 的科学文献进行了叙述性综述,并特别关注了 DTs 与人工智能的关系。本文旨在讨论这两项技术的整合可为铁路维护应用(及其他应用)带来的机遇,同时强调有效实施这两项技术应克服的主要挑战。
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引用次数: 0
A co-simulation approach to onboard support of marine operation: a Palfinger crane path planning case 船上支持海上作业的联合模拟方法:Palfinger 起重机路径规划案例
Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI: 10.1177/00375497241228623
Zizheng Liu, Y. Chu, Guoyuan Li, H. P. Hildre, Houxiang Zhang
Marine cranes are one of the most important industrial equipment in the maritime field. The base of a marine crane is dynamically moving as the motion of the ship’s six degrees of freedom that is affected by offshore environmental loads. There is a coupling between the crane and the ship, which means the crane operation and the ship motion affect each other. In this paper, co-simulation technology is employed to construct the virtual marine operation system which is composed of diverse Functional Mock-Up Units (FMUs) exported using the Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI) standard and System Structure and Parameterization (SSP) standard to define the structure and parameters based on the co-simulation platform Vico. A path planning case for the Palfinger crane is implemented using the A* algorithm. The physical three-dimensional working space of the crane is discretized into a finite number of nodes in joint space. The cost is defined by the variable of the ship motion to optimize the marine operation. The obtained discrete nodes are smoothed to get the velocity of the actuators as control signals. Simulation of the crane operation is carried out in the virtual operating system following the planned path.
船用起重机是海事领域最重要的工业设备之一。船用起重机的底座随着船舶六个自由度的运动而动态运动,并受到近海环境负荷的影响。起重机与船舶之间存在耦合关系,即起重机的运行与船舶的运动相互影响。本文采用协同仿真技术构建了虚拟海洋作业系统,该系统由不同的功能模拟单元(FMU)组成,使用功能模拟接口(FMI)标准和系统结构与参数化(SSP)标准导出,以协同仿真平台 Vico 为基础定义结构和参数。使用 A* 算法实现了 Palfinger 起重机的路径规划案例。起重机的物理三维工作空间被离散化为有限数量的关节空间节点。成本由船舶运动变量定义,以优化海上作业。对得到的离散节点进行平滑处理,以得到执行器的速度作为控制信号。在虚拟操作系统中,按照规划的路径对起重机的运行进行模拟。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation in engineering education: The transition from physical experimentation to digital immersive simulated environments 工程教育中的模拟:从物理实验到数字沉浸式模拟环境的过渡
Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI: 10.1177/00375497241229757
A. Negahban
Besides its use as a powerful systems analysis tool, simulation has also been used for decades in educational settings as a teaching and learning method. Simulation can replace or augment real-world inquiry-based experiences by providing learners with a low-cost and risk-free experimentation platform to develop knowledge and skills in a simulated environment. This paper presents an overview of current applications and the ongoing transition from physical experimentation to digital simulations and immersive simulated learning environments in engineering education. The paper highlights major implementation and research gaps related to simulation-based learning and immersive simulated learning environments, namely, lack of integration with learning theories and limited formal assessments of effectiveness. Potential implementation approaches and important areas for future educational research are discussed and exemplified in response to the identified gaps. The discussions presented are intended for simulationists, educational researchers, and instructors who are interested in designing and/or utilizing engineering education interventions involving simulated learning environments and immersive technologies in their teaching and educational research. In particular, the Immersive Simulation-Based Learning (ISBL) approach discussed in the paper provides a framework for simulationists to reuse the models developed as part of their simulation projects for educational purposes.
除了作为强大的系统分析工具外,模拟作为一种教学方法在教育领域也已使用了几十年。通过为学习者提供一个低成本、无风险的实验平台,在模拟环境中开发知识和技能,仿真可以取代或增强真实世界的探究体验。本文概述了当前的应用情况,以及工程教育中从物理实验向数字模拟和沉浸式模拟学习环境的不断过渡。本文强调了与基于模拟的学习和身临其境的模拟学习环境相关的主要实施和研究差距,即缺乏与学习理论的整合以及对有效性的正式评估有限。针对所发现的差距,讨论并举例说明了潜在的实施方法和未来教育研究的重要领域。讨论的对象是那些有兴趣在教学和教育研究中设计和/或利用涉及模拟学习环境和沉浸式技术的工程教育干预措施的模拟学家、教育研究人员和教师。特别是,本文所讨论的沉浸式模拟学习(ISLL)方法为模拟专家提供了一个框架,使他们可以将模拟项目中开发的模型重新用于教育目的。
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引用次数: 0
A co-simulation approach to onboard support of marine operation: a Palfinger crane path planning case 船上支持海上作业的联合模拟方法:Palfinger 起重机路径规划案例
Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI: 10.1177/00375497241228623
Zizheng Liu, Y. Chu, Guoyuan Li, H. P. Hildre, Houxiang Zhang
Marine cranes are one of the most important industrial equipment in the maritime field. The base of a marine crane is dynamically moving as the motion of the ship’s six degrees of freedom that is affected by offshore environmental loads. There is a coupling between the crane and the ship, which means the crane operation and the ship motion affect each other. In this paper, co-simulation technology is employed to construct the virtual marine operation system which is composed of diverse Functional Mock-Up Units (FMUs) exported using the Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI) standard and System Structure and Parameterization (SSP) standard to define the structure and parameters based on the co-simulation platform Vico. A path planning case for the Palfinger crane is implemented using the A* algorithm. The physical three-dimensional working space of the crane is discretized into a finite number of nodes in joint space. The cost is defined by the variable of the ship motion to optimize the marine operation. The obtained discrete nodes are smoothed to get the velocity of the actuators as control signals. Simulation of the crane operation is carried out in the virtual operating system following the planned path.
船用起重机是海事领域最重要的工业设备之一。船用起重机的底座随着船舶六个自由度的运动而动态运动,并受到近海环境负荷的影响。起重机与船舶之间存在耦合关系,即起重机的运行与船舶的运动相互影响。本文采用协同仿真技术构建了虚拟海洋作业系统,该系统由不同的功能模拟单元(FMU)组成,使用功能模拟接口(FMI)标准和系统结构与参数化(SSP)标准导出,以协同仿真平台 Vico 为基础定义结构和参数。使用 A* 算法实现了 Palfinger 起重机的路径规划案例。起重机的物理三维工作空间被离散化为有限数量的关节空间节点。成本由船舶运动变量定义,以优化海上作业。对得到的离散节点进行平滑处理,以得到执行器的速度作为控制信号。在虚拟操作系统中,按照规划的路径对起重机的运行进行模拟。
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引用次数: 0
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