Baolin Song, Xinrui Hu, Han Zhang, Yanchen Gao, Yuan Guo
The vigorous development of the digital economy provides a new research perspective for alleviating local financial pressure. Based on the provincial panel data from 2013 to 2020, the mediating effect model and threshold regression model were used to explore the effect and mechanism of the digital economy on local fiscal pressure. The research shows that the digital economy has a significant alleviating effect on local financial pressure by increasing fiscal revenue, and this alleviating effect has a threshold effect on entrepreneurial activity. From the perspective of dimension, the alleviating effect of the digital economy development environment on local financial pressure is better than that of digital industrialization and industrial digitization. From a regional perspective, the digital economy has the most apparent impact on the western region. In addition, the quantile regression results show that with the increase in financial pressure, the easing effect of the digital economy shows an inverted U-shaped change. Therefore, in order to effectively alleviate the financial pressure on local governments, China should continue to promote the development of the digital economy, take multiple measures to increase entrepreneurial activity, and encourage various regions to implement differentiated digital economy development strategies according to local conditions.
{"title":"Research on the Effect of Digital Economy Development on Local Financial Pressure","authors":"Baolin Song, Xinrui Hu, Han Zhang, Yanchen Gao, Yuan Guo","doi":"10.58567/jes01010004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58567/jes01010004","url":null,"abstract":"The vigorous development of the digital economy provides a new research perspective for alleviating local financial pressure. Based on the provincial panel data from 2013 to 2020, the mediating effect model and threshold regression model were used to explore the effect and mechanism of the digital economy on local fiscal pressure. The research shows that the digital economy has a significant alleviating effect on local financial pressure by increasing fiscal revenue, and this alleviating effect has a threshold effect on entrepreneurial activity. From the perspective of dimension, the alleviating effect of the digital economy development environment on local financial pressure is better than that of digital industrialization and industrial digitization. From a regional perspective, the digital economy has the most apparent impact on the western region. In addition, the quantile regression results show that with the increase in financial pressure, the easing effect of the digital economy shows an inverted U-shaped change. Therefore, in order to effectively alleviate the financial pressure on local governments, China should continue to promote the development of the digital economy, take multiple measures to increase entrepreneurial activity, and encourage various regions to implement differentiated digital economy development strategies according to local conditions.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90924505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Forest resources, as one of the most important natural resources, have high ecological value. The calculation of their ecological value is an important part of improving the accounting of natural resources assets. Based on the analysis of the basic situation of China's forest resources, this paper starts from the economic theory of forest resources, discusses the principle of forest resources in national economic operation, analyzes the output, value, price and other issues of forest resources, and probes into the necessity of studying forest resources. Then, based on the purpose of compiling the balance sheet of natural resources, the forest resources accounting theory was studied from the aspects of subject and object, scope, table design and so on. On the basis of relevant theoretical research, the main ecological functions of different types of forest resources are discussed. In practical calculation, the parameters of some accounting methods are adjusted to adapt to the local situation. Some methods of ecological value calculation such as soil conservation and water conservation are put forward, and some ideas for further improvement are put forward. Finally, taking Qiandao Lake as an example, the ecological value of its forest resources is calculated. Through calculation, the annual soil conservation value of Qiandao Lake forest resources was obtained. Combined with the research conclusion and practice progress, the future research prospect is put forward.
{"title":"Theory and Method of Ecological Value Accounting of Forest Resources","authors":"He Zhu, Yan Liang, Zhaoyang Li, Chuanbao Qiu","doi":"10.58567/jes01010002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58567/jes01010002","url":null,"abstract":"Forest resources, as one of the most important natural resources, have high ecological value. The calculation of their ecological value is an important part of improving the accounting of natural resources assets. Based on the analysis of the basic situation of China's forest resources, this paper starts from the economic theory of forest resources, discusses the principle of forest resources in national economic operation, analyzes the output, value, price and other issues of forest resources, and probes into the necessity of studying forest resources. Then, based on the purpose of compiling the balance sheet of natural resources, the forest resources accounting theory was studied from the aspects of subject and object, scope, table design and so on. On the basis of relevant theoretical research, the main ecological functions of different types of forest resources are discussed. In practical calculation, the parameters of some accounting methods are adjusted to adapt to the local situation. Some methods of ecological value calculation such as soil conservation and water conservation are put forward, and some ideas for further improvement are put forward. Finally, taking Qiandao Lake as an example, the ecological value of its forest resources is calculated. Through calculation, the annual soil conservation value of Qiandao Lake forest resources was obtained. Combined with the research conclusion and practice progress, the future research prospect is put forward.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77628004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nannan Zhou, Changluan Shao, Yongqing Chen, Huaming Liu
With the advancement of science and technology and the advent of the digital economy, the digital economy has become a new driving force for economic development, and the digital economy industry at home and abroad is facing new opportunities for survival and development. However, due to the special development model and profit mode of the digital economy industry, the traditional performance evaluation method is no longer applicable, so it is particularly important to improve the previous performance evaluation method. This paper first adjusts the customer value assessment (CLV) model according to the characteristics of the digital economy industry, and then analyzes the traditional EVA based on the adjusted user value assessment (ULV) model of the digital economy industry. The performance evaluation system is improved, and the representative enterprises of Alibaba, JD and Pinduoduo in the digital economy industry are selected for performance evaluation and analysis, and the user value performance evaluation model of the digital economy industry is integrated, innovated and standardized, in order to provide reference and reference for the follow-up research and practice of performance evaluation in the digital economy industry.
{"title":"Performance evaluation of user value in digital economy industry: Based on the improvement EVA model","authors":"Nannan Zhou, Changluan Shao, Yongqing Chen, Huaming Liu","doi":"10.58567/jes01010005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58567/jes01010005","url":null,"abstract":"With the advancement of science and technology and the advent of the digital economy, the digital economy has become a new driving force for economic development, and the digital economy industry at home and abroad is facing new opportunities for survival and development. However, due to the special development model and profit mode of the digital economy industry, the traditional performance evaluation method is no longer applicable, so it is particularly important to improve the previous performance evaluation method. This paper first adjusts the customer value assessment (CLV) model according to the characteristics of the digital economy industry, and then analyzes the traditional EVA based on the adjusted user value assessment (ULV) model of the digital economy industry. The performance evaluation system is improved, and the representative enterprises of Alibaba, JD and Pinduoduo in the digital economy industry are selected for performance evaluation and analysis, and the user value performance evaluation model of the digital economy industry is integrated, innovated and standardized, in order to provide reference and reference for the follow-up research and practice of performance evaluation in the digital economy industry.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84775762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Carbon emissions trading is essential for reducing carbon emissions, and its role in regional carbon unlocking needs further clarification. This study uses the difference-in-differences (DID) model and synthetic control model (SCM) to evaluate the carbon unlocking effect of China’s six pilot carbon trading provinces. This study found that (1) carbon lock-in effects in China are mainly influenced by technology lock-in and fixed input lock-in; (2) each province’s overall carbon lock-in level presents a decreasing trend yearly, and the regional distribution presents characteristics of “low in the east and high in the west”; (3) carbon emissions trading pilot policies effectively promote the carbon unlocking effect in pilot regions overall, with Guangdong having the most significant unlocking effect. Conversely, Beijing, Hubei, Chongqing, and Shanghai also had different degrees of carbon unlocking. Finally, (4) an assessment of impact mechanisms indicates that technology and institutions have a significant mediating role in effectively promoting carbon unlocking under the carbon trading policy. Conversely, social behavior has an inverse effect, and fixed assets are not affected by the policy. This study demonstrates the carbon unlocking effect of carbon emissions trading and provides a quantitative reference for implementing carbon emissions trading policies and determining carbon unlocking paths.
{"title":"Does carbon emissions trading facilitate carbon unlocking? Empirical evidence from China","authors":"Tianqiong Wang, Yawen Sun, Yong Wang, Yuhao Yang","doi":"10.58567/jes01010007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58567/jes01010007","url":null,"abstract":"Carbon emissions trading is essential for reducing carbon emissions, and its role in regional carbon unlocking needs further clarification. This study uses the difference-in-differences (DID) model and synthetic control model (SCM) to evaluate the carbon unlocking effect of China’s six pilot carbon trading provinces. This study found that (1) carbon lock-in effects in China are mainly influenced by technology lock-in and fixed input lock-in; (2) each province’s overall carbon lock-in level presents a decreasing trend yearly, and the regional distribution presents characteristics of “low in the east and high in the west”; (3) carbon emissions trading pilot policies effectively promote the carbon unlocking effect in pilot regions overall, with Guangdong having the most significant unlocking effect. Conversely, Beijing, Hubei, Chongqing, and Shanghai also had different degrees of carbon unlocking. Finally, (4) an assessment of impact mechanisms indicates that technology and institutions have a significant mediating role in effectively promoting carbon unlocking under the carbon trading policy. Conversely, social behavior has an inverse effect, and fixed assets are not affected by the policy. This study demonstrates the carbon unlocking effect of carbon emissions trading and provides a quantitative reference for implementing carbon emissions trading policies and determining carbon unlocking paths.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82195395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global distributions of net factor income from abroad (NFI) during 1990-2019 have witnessed that (1) the United States is the top one country accounting for 40% of surpluses of the global total, while a surge in China’s deficit with its GDP increase; (2) GDP growth in emerging economies has a price scissors with NFI deficits; (3) asymmetric NFI has covered up the severity of rich countries’ global arbitrages especially from emerging economies; (4) China’s economic power is exaggerated by the PPP-based GDP implemented by the World Bank. It concludes that (1) developing countries have paid for huge hidden cost for their emergence; (2) the statement of the United States suffering losses absolutely does not hold; (3) GDP is not a universal tool for measuring what matters. It suggests that (1) emerging economies countries should beware of the potential misleading of GDP on economic measurement and economic power comparison ; (2) GDP should be critiqued from the applicability perspective of economies’ types; (3) it is urgent to clarify some misjudgment and misleading concepts in the economic affairs surrounding the global value chain patterns; (4) the construction of national governance capacity in emerging economies should focus on “social infrastructure”, of which one of the important parts is an effective economic statistics system; (5) emerging economies should carry out the strategic layout of international economic statistics talents to enhance their soft powers.
{"title":"Gross Domestic Products (GDP) is not a Proper Indicator of Measurement and Economic Power Comparison for Emerging Economies: A Judgement from International Distributions of Net Factor Income from Abroad","authors":"Dongziao Qiu, Ya-fei Wang","doi":"10.58567/jes01010001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58567/jes01010001","url":null,"abstract":"Global distributions of net factor income from abroad (NFI) during 1990-2019 have witnessed that (1) the United States is the top one country accounting for 40% of surpluses of the global total, while a surge in China’s deficit with its GDP increase; (2) GDP growth in emerging economies has a price scissors with NFI deficits; (3) asymmetric NFI has covered up the severity of rich countries’ global arbitrages especially from emerging economies; (4) China’s economic power is exaggerated by the PPP-based GDP implemented by the World Bank. It concludes that (1) developing countries have paid for huge hidden cost for their emergence; (2) the statement of the United States suffering losses absolutely does not hold; (3) GDP is not a universal tool for measuring what matters. It suggests that (1) emerging economies countries should beware of the potential misleading of GDP on economic measurement and economic power comparison ; (2) GDP should be critiqued from the applicability perspective of economies’ types; (3) it is urgent to clarify some misjudgment and misleading concepts in the economic affairs surrounding the global value chain patterns; (4) the construction of national governance capacity in emerging economies should focus on “social infrastructure”, of which one of the important parts is an effective economic statistics system; (5) emerging economies should carry out the strategic layout of international economic statistics talents to enhance their soft powers.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"AES-2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84450636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Because of the complexity of indirect financial intermediary services (FISIM) accounting, the traditional price index deflation method can no longer meet its accounting needs. The manual of price and volume measurement suggests that the stock deflation method and output index method should be used to calculate the volume of FISIM. Comparing the two accounting frameworks, it can be found that the key to the implementation of the stock deflation method is to set a scientific and reasonable deflation index from two aspects of service price and the service quantity, while the key of the output index method is the selection of the output index and the determination of weight. This paper compares the application cases of stock deflation method and output index method in practice, summarizes the similarities, differences, advantages and disadvantages of each case in index construction, index selection and weight determination, and further provides a reference for China FISIM volume accounting.
{"title":"Volume Accounts of FISIM: a Comparative Study between Stocks Deflation Method and Output Index Method","authors":"Xiaoai Jia, Panpan Wang, Ziying Hao, Zhiyong Zheng","doi":"10.58567/jes01010003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58567/jes01010003","url":null,"abstract":"Because of the complexity of indirect financial intermediary services (FISIM) accounting, the traditional price index deflation method can no longer meet its accounting needs. The manual of price and volume measurement suggests that the stock deflation method and output index method should be used to calculate the volume of FISIM. Comparing the two accounting frameworks, it can be found that the key to the implementation of the stock deflation method is to set a scientific and reasonable deflation index from two aspects of service price and the service quantity, while the key of the output index method is the selection of the output index and the determination of weight. This paper compares the application cases of stock deflation method and output index method in practice, summarizes the similarities, differences, advantages and disadvantages of each case in index construction, index selection and weight determination, and further provides a reference for China FISIM volume accounting.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80172940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fengyu Cheng, Jianping Liao, Kenichiro Soyano, Feiling Lu
It's critical for environmental governance to understand the effectiveness of policy interventions as well as their working mechanisms. This paper focuses on the vehicle license plate-based management, a sort of policy intervention understudied in environmental governance literature. Specifically, we study the automobile purchase restriction (APR), a major method of license management to address urban air pollution and traffic congestion recently launched by the authorities of China. However, limited studies have quantified the environmental impact of such purchase restriction. Based on the panel data of PM2.5 concentration in 330 cities in China during 1998-2016, this study aims to explore the causal impact of Beijing automobile purchase restriction on air quality, using the regression control method and high-dimensional data regression of machine learning. The average PM2.5 concentration did not decrease but increased because of the purchase restriction. Over time, the deterioration effect on urban air quality will not alleviate. Besides, the restriction cannot enhance urban air quality by decreasing the increase of PM2.5. Despite excluding the impact of driving restriction, the purchase restriction markedly aggravate urban air quality. This paper has some policy implications for policymakers on the impact of urban vehicle license management with caution. Hence, it is essential to promote urban economy, production, and lifestyle to attain the win-win goal of air pollution control and urban development.
{"title":"The Impact of Automobile Purchase Restriction on Urban Air Quality: Experimental Evidence from Beijing, China","authors":"Fengyu Cheng, Jianping Liao, Kenichiro Soyano, Feiling Lu","doi":"10.58567/jes01010006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58567/jes01010006","url":null,"abstract":"It's critical for environmental governance to understand the effectiveness of policy interventions as well as their working mechanisms. This paper focuses on the vehicle license plate-based management, a sort of policy intervention understudied in environmental governance literature. Specifically, we study the automobile purchase restriction (APR), a major method of license management to address urban air pollution and traffic congestion recently launched by the authorities of China. However, limited studies have quantified the environmental impact of such purchase restriction. Based on the panel data of PM2.5 concentration in 330 cities in China during 1998-2016, this study aims to explore the causal impact of Beijing automobile purchase restriction on air quality, using the regression control method and high-dimensional data regression of machine learning. The average PM2.5 concentration did not decrease but increased because of the purchase restriction. Over time, the deterioration effect on urban air quality will not alleviate. Besides, the restriction cannot enhance urban air quality by decreasing the increase of PM2.5. Despite excluding the impact of driving restriction, the purchase restriction markedly aggravate urban air quality. This paper has some policy implications for policymakers on the impact of urban vehicle license management with caution. Hence, it is essential to promote urban economy, production, and lifestyle to attain the win-win goal of air pollution control and urban development.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73826566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-06DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2023.2166052
Arthur Lewbel, Susanne M. Schennach, Linqi Zhang
We show that a standard linear triangular two equation system can be point identified, without the use of instruments or any other side information. We find that the only case where the model is not point identified is when a latent variable that causes endogeneity is normally distributed. In this nonidentified case, we derive the sharp identified set. We apply our results to Acemoglu and Johnson’s model of life expectancy and GDP, obtaining point identification and comparable estimates to theirs, without using their (or any other) instrument.
{"title":"Identification of a Triangular Two Equation System Without Instruments","authors":"Arthur Lewbel, Susanne M. Schennach, Linqi Zhang","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2023.2166052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2023.2166052","url":null,"abstract":"We show that a standard linear triangular two equation system can be point identified, without the use of instruments or any other side information. We find that the only case where the model is not point identified is when a latent variable that causes endogeneity is normally distributed. In this nonidentified case, we derive the sharp identified set. We apply our results to Acemoglu and Johnson’s model of life expectancy and GDP, obtaining point identification and comparable estimates to theirs, without using their (or any other) instrument.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"137 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136372074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-06DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2023.2166050
S.U. Can, John Einmahl, Roger Laeven
A novel, general two-sample hypothesis testing procedure is established for testing the equality of tail copulas associated with bivariate data. More precisely, using a martingale transformation of a natural two-sample tail copula process, a test process is constructed, which is shown to converge in distribution to a standard Wiener process. Hence, from this test process a myriad of asymptotically distribution-free two-sample tests can be obtained. The good finite-sample behavior of our procedure is demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulations. Using the new testing procedure, no evidence of a difference in the respective tail copulas is found for pairs of negative daily log-returns of equity indices during and after the global financial crisis.
{"title":"Two-Sample Testing for Tail Copulas with an Application to Equity Indices","authors":"S.U. Can, John Einmahl, Roger Laeven","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2023.2166050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2023.2166050","url":null,"abstract":"A novel, general two-sample hypothesis testing procedure is established for testing the equality of tail copulas associated with bivariate data. More precisely, using a martingale transformation of a natural two-sample tail copula process, a test process is constructed, which is shown to converge in distribution to a standard Wiener process. Hence, from this test process a myriad of asymptotically distribution-free two-sample tests can be obtained. The good finite-sample behavior of our procedure is demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulations. Using the new testing procedure, no evidence of a difference in the respective tail copulas is found for pairs of negative daily log-returns of equity indices during and after the global financial crisis.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"85 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136371391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-03DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2154778
Liu Yang, Kajal Lahiri, Adrian Pagan
Judging the conformity of binary events in macroeconomics and finance has often been done with indices that measure synchronization. In recent years, the use of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve has become popular for this task. This article shows that the ROC and synchronization approaches are closely related, and each can be derived from a decision-making framework. Furthermore, the resulting global measures of the degree of conformity can be identified and estimated using the standard method of moments estimators. The impact of serial dependence in the underlying series upon inferences can therefore be allowed for. Such serial correlation is common in macroeconomic and financial data.
{"title":"Getting the ROC into Sync","authors":"Liu Yang, Kajal Lahiri, Adrian Pagan","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2154778","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2154778","url":null,"abstract":"Judging the conformity of binary events in macroeconomics and finance has often been done with indices that measure synchronization. In recent years, the use of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve has become popular for this task. This article shows that the ROC and synchronization approaches are closely related, and each can be derived from a decision-making framework. Furthermore, the resulting global measures of the degree of conformity can be identified and estimated using the standard method of moments estimators. The impact of serial dependence in the underlying series upon inferences can therefore be allowed for. Such serial correlation is common in macroeconomic and financial data.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135555463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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