The global financial crisis has affected all countries during the period 2007-2014. Tourist companies, especially in Italy, play a significant role in the economy of a country. The performance of tourism companies, and in particular hotels and travel agencies and tour operators, will be analysed in this paper, relative to the period of the crisis. The aim of this paper is to analyze profitability dynamics of the aforementioned tourist companies, to check whether they have suffered the effects of the global crisis. To this end, data from AIDA database relating to Italian companies in the sector were used. The profitability of these companies has been analyzed using the main profitability ratios, ROI and ROS ratios. An analysis of the trends and ANOVA of these ratios was carried out for the period 2007-2015. In this way, it has been verified whether the global crisis has affected profitability dynamics of hotels and travel agencies and tour operators in Italy. There is a parallelism in the trends of the main operators' indices in the three Italian macro-regions. The best performance is in the South, in a less developed economic context. The crisis has reduced the income indices in the first three years, even if the figure remains positive. Since 2012 there is a clear recovery, especially for hotels; intermediaries, on the other hand, suffer from competition from websites. However, the indices confirm the close relationship between travel agencies, tour operators and hotels. ROI mainly rewards first, while ROS intermediaries.
{"title":"Variability of Income Flows of Tourism Companies during a Nine-Year Period","authors":"Iovino Felicetta","doi":"10.58567/jes01020004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58567/jes01020004","url":null,"abstract":"The global financial crisis has affected all countries during the period 2007-2014. Tourist companies, especially in Italy, play a significant role in the economy of a country. The performance of tourism companies, and in particular hotels and travel agencies and tour operators, will be analysed in this paper, relative to the period of the crisis. The aim of this paper is to analyze profitability dynamics of the aforementioned tourist companies, to check whether they have suffered the effects of the global crisis. To this end, data from AIDA database relating to Italian companies in the sector were used. The profitability of these companies has been analyzed using the main profitability ratios, ROI and ROS ratios. An analysis of the trends and ANOVA of these ratios was carried out for the period 2007-2015. In this way, it has been verified whether the global crisis has affected profitability dynamics of hotels and travel agencies and tour operators in Italy. There is a parallelism in the trends of the main operators' indices in the three Italian macro-regions. The best performance is in the South, in a less developed economic context. The crisis has reduced the income indices in the first three years, even if the figure remains positive. Since 2012 there is a clear recovery, especially for hotels; intermediaries, on the other hand, suffer from competition from websites. However, the indices confirm the close relationship between travel agencies, tour operators and hotels. ROI mainly rewards first, while ROS intermediaries.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76505103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The study analyses the long growth rate period contribution to human development in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) from 1996 to 2019 introducing time and institutional indicators effects analyses. Time and institutional effects both greatly improve model's diagnostics statistics. Time effects reduce growth variable coefficient and its significance, but not institutional effects. Combined effects inhibit growth contribution to human development. It appears essential to increase the resiliency of growth and the efficiency of government institutions.
{"title":"Qualitative Analysis of West African Economic and Monetary Union Decades’ Economic Growth","authors":"Siriki Coulibaly, Pierre Guei","doi":"10.58567/jes01020003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58567/jes01020003","url":null,"abstract":"The study analyses the long growth rate period contribution to human development in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) from 1996 to 2019 introducing time and institutional indicators effects analyses. Time and institutional effects both greatly improve model's diagnostics statistics. Time effects reduce growth variable coefficient and its significance, but not institutional effects. Combined effects inhibit growth contribution to human development. It appears essential to increase the resiliency of growth and the efficiency of government institutions.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84779164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The impact of international tourism on emerging markets has been overwhelmingly beneficial. Despite the obvious benefits of tourism, it comes at a high price for the environment in the form of pollution. Brazil's annual tourist influx has the potential to boost economic development and damage the country's ecosystems. The objective of this investigation is to analyze, using time series data ranging from 1990 to 2019, the effects of tourism and economic growth (GDP) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Brazil. The stationarity of the data was examined by employing unit root tests, and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique was used to investigate the link between the factors, taking both the long- and the short-run into consideration. This research shows that there are long-term and short-term ties between Brazil's tourism industry, GDP, and CO2 emissions. Yet, both tourism and economic expansion have had serious negative effects on Brazil's ecology. These results indicate that in order to maintain environmental quality in Brazil, policymakers need to pursue more eco-friendly economic expansion as well as environmentally conscious tourist regulations.
{"title":"Economic Growth and Carbon Emission Nexus: the Function of Tourism in Brazil","authors":"A. Raihan","doi":"10.58567/jes01020005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58567/jes01020005","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of international tourism on emerging markets has been overwhelmingly beneficial. Despite the obvious benefits of tourism, it comes at a high price for the environment in the form of pollution. Brazil's annual tourist influx has the potential to boost economic development and damage the country's ecosystems. The objective of this investigation is to analyze, using time series data ranging from 1990 to 2019, the effects of tourism and economic growth (GDP) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Brazil. The stationarity of the data was examined by employing unit root tests, and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique was used to investigate the link between the factors, taking both the long- and the short-run into consideration. This research shows that there are long-term and short-term ties between Brazil's tourism industry, GDP, and CO2 emissions. Yet, both tourism and economic expansion have had serious negative effects on Brazil's ecology. These results indicate that in order to maintain environmental quality in Brazil, policymakers need to pursue more eco-friendly economic expansion as well as environmentally conscious tourist regulations.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78884455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper uses China Household Income Project rural household survey data spanning 30 years (1988-2018) to study the impact of China’s industrialization on rural household income. In the semiparametric regression model, we use the rural households’ distance to the manufacturing hub to analyze the spillover effect of industrialization on their income and the spatial attenuation. The results show that the income gap between rural households in Guangdong and other provinces increased from 1988 to 2002, but continuously decreased from 2002 to 2018; the rural households’ distance to the Pearl River Delta or the Yangtze River Delta, the two international manufacturing hubs, has a significant impact on their income, which has been increasing from 1988 to 1995, but has been decreasing since the new century. On the contrary, the influence of the rural households’ distance to the provincial capital on their income has been increasing since the new century.
{"title":"Impact of Industrialization on Household Income in Rural China, 1988-2018","authors":"Yuluan Chen, Qingjie Xia, Shi Li","doi":"10.58567/jes01020002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58567/jes01020002","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses China Household Income Project rural household survey data spanning 30 years (1988-2018) to study the impact of China’s industrialization on rural household income. In the semiparametric regression model, we use the rural households’ distance to the manufacturing hub to analyze the spillover effect of industrialization on their income and the spatial attenuation. The results show that the income gap between rural households in Guangdong and other provinces increased from 1988 to 2002, but continuously decreased from 2002 to 2018; the rural households’ distance to the Pearl River Delta or the Yangtze River Delta, the two international manufacturing hubs, has a significant impact on their income, which has been increasing from 1988 to 1995, but has been decreasing since the new century. On the contrary, the influence of the rural households’ distance to the provincial capital on their income has been increasing since the new century.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73094566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
According to economic theory and common sense, the issuance of consumption coupons on one hand stimulated the increasing of residents' consumption, but on the other pushed up the price level. In this paper, using the theory of mechanism design, the game model was built to analyze the relationship between the effect of consumer coupons during the epidemic and the number of merchants participated. The results show that the smaller the merchants’ number, the weaker the coupons’ effect, vice versa. Then, using KNN regression method, combined with the monthly year-on-year data of CPI from 1998 to 2020, this paper analyzes the changes of CPI forecast value and actual value in the first 10 months of 2020, finding that the actual value of CPI is higher than the predicted one during the first two months of 2020, but lower from March 2020 on, which further verifies the conclusion of game analysis.
{"title":"Game Analysis on the effect of consumer coupons and its impact on CPI","authors":"Xiuhai Huang, Ping Yu","doi":"10.58567/jes01020001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.58567/jes01020001","url":null,"abstract":"According to economic theory and common sense, the issuance of consumption coupons on one hand stimulated the increasing of residents' consumption, but on the other pushed up the price level. In this paper, using the theory of mechanism design, the game model was built to analyze the relationship between the effect of consumer coupons during the epidemic and the number of merchants participated. The results show that the smaller the merchants’ number, the weaker the coupons’ effect, vice versa. Then, using KNN regression method, combined with the monthly year-on-year data of CPI from 1998 to 2020, this paper analyzes the changes of CPI forecast value and actual value in the first 10 months of 2020, finding that the actual value of CPI is higher than the predicted one during the first two months of 2020, but lower from March 2020 on, which further verifies the conclusion of game analysis.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90335001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-03DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2097910
Xiye Yang
Abstract This article proposes more efficient estimators for the leverage effect than the existing ones. The idea is to allow for nonuniform kernel functions in the spot volatility estimates or the aggregated returns. This finding highlights a critical difference between the leverage effect and integrated volatility functionals, where the uniform kernel is optimal. Another distinction between these two cases is that the overlapping estimators of the leverage effect are more efficient than the nonoverlapping ones. We offer two perspectives to explain these differences: one is based on the “effective kernel” and the other on the correlation structure of the nonoverlapping estimators. The simulation study shows that the proposed estimator with a nonuniform kernel substantially increases the estimation efficiency and testing power relative to the existing ones.
{"title":"Estimation of Leverage Effect: Kernel Function and Efficiency","authors":"Xiye Yang","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2097910","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2097910","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article proposes more efficient estimators for the leverage effect than the existing ones. The idea is to allow for nonuniform kernel functions in the spot volatility estimates or the aggregated returns. This finding highlights a critical difference between the leverage effect and integrated volatility functionals, where the uniform kernel is optimal. Another distinction between these two cases is that the overlapping estimators of the leverage effect are more efficient than the nonoverlapping ones. We offer two perspectives to explain these differences: one is based on the “effective kernel” and the other on the correlation structure of the nonoverlapping estimators. The simulation study shows that the proposed estimator with a nonuniform kernel substantially increases the estimation efficiency and testing power relative to the existing ones.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"41 1","pages":"939 - 956"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45705323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-29DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2023.2217871
Qiang Xia, Xianyang Zhang
This article proposes a new procedure to validate the multi-factor pricing theory by testing the presence of alpha in linear factor pricing models with a large number of assets. Because the market’s inefficient pricing is likely to occur to a small fraction of exceptional assets, we develop a testing procedure that is particularly powerful against sparse signals. Based on the high-dimensional Gaussian approximation theory, we propose a simulation-based approach to approximate the limiting null distribution of the test. Our numerical studies show that the new procedure can deliver a reasonable size and achieve substantial power improvement compared to the existing tests under sparse alternatives, and especially for weak signals.
{"title":"Adaptive Testing for Alphas in High-Dimensional Factor Pricing Models","authors":"Qiang Xia, Xianyang Zhang","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2023.2217871","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2023.2217871","url":null,"abstract":"This article proposes a new procedure to validate the multi-factor pricing theory by testing the presence of alpha in linear factor pricing models with a large number of assets. Because the market’s inefficient pricing is likely to occur to a small fraction of exceptional assets, we develop a testing procedure that is particularly powerful against sparse signals. Based on the high-dimensional Gaussian approximation theory, we propose a simulation-based approach to approximate the limiting null distribution of the test. Our numerical studies show that the new procedure can deliver a reasonable size and achieve substantial power improvement compared to the existing tests under sparse alternatives, and especially for weak signals.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134999373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-15DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2023.2203207
Aleksey Kolokolov, Roberto Renò
Even moderate amounts of zero returns in financial data, associated with stale prices, are heavily detrimental for reliable jump inference. We harness staleness-robust estimators to reappraise the statistical features of jumps in financial markets. We find that jumps are much less frequent and much less contributing to price variation than what found by the empirical literature so far. In particular, the empirical finding that volatility is driven by a pure jump process is actually shown to be an artifact due to staleness.
{"title":"Jumps or Staleness?","authors":"Aleksey Kolokolov, Roberto Renò","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2023.2203207","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2023.2203207","url":null,"abstract":"Even moderate amounts of zero returns in financial data, associated with stale prices, are heavily detrimental for reliable jump inference. We harness staleness-robust estimators to reappraise the statistical features of jumps in financial markets. We find that jumps are much less frequent and much less contributing to price variation than what found by the empirical literature so far. In particular, the empirical finding that volatility is driven by a pure jump process is actually shown to be an artifact due to staleness.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"134 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135711269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-03DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2044336
G. Koop, Stuart G McIntyre, James Mitchell, Aubrey Poon
Abstract In the United States, income and expenditure-side estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) (GDP and GDP ) measure “true” GDP with error and are available at a quarterly frequency. Methods exist for using these proxies to produce reconciled quarterly estimates of true GDP. In this paper, we extend these methods to provide reconciled historical true GDP estimates at a monthly frequency. We do this using a Bayesian mixed frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) involving GDP , GDP , unobserved true GDP, and monthly indicators of short-term economic activity. Our MF-VAR imposes restrictions that reflect a measurement-error perspective (i.e., the two GDP proxies are assumed to equal true GDP plus measurement error). Without further restrictions, our model is unidentified. We consider a range of restrictions that allow for point and set identification of true GDP and show that they lead to informative monthly GDP estimates. We illustrate how these new monthly data contribute to our historical understanding of business cycles and we provide a real-time application nowcasting monthly GDP over the pandemic recession.
{"title":"Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the United States","authors":"G. Koop, Stuart G McIntyre, James Mitchell, Aubrey Poon","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2022.2044336","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2044336","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the United States, income and expenditure-side estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) (GDP and GDP ) measure “true” GDP with error and are available at a quarterly frequency. Methods exist for using these proxies to produce reconciled quarterly estimates of true GDP. In this paper, we extend these methods to provide reconciled historical true GDP estimates at a monthly frequency. We do this using a Bayesian mixed frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) involving GDP , GDP , unobserved true GDP, and monthly indicators of short-term economic activity. Our MF-VAR imposes restrictions that reflect a measurement-error perspective (i.e., the two GDP proxies are assumed to equal true GDP plus measurement error). Without further restrictions, our model is unidentified. We consider a range of restrictions that allow for point and set identification of true GDP and show that they lead to informative monthly GDP estimates. We illustrate how these new monthly data contribute to our historical understanding of business cycles and we provide a real-time application nowcasting monthly GDP over the pandemic recession.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"41 1","pages":"563 - 577"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46284583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-03DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2023.2174123
James E. Pustejovskya, Elizabeth Tiptonb
Abstract Pustejovsky and Tipton considered how to implement cluster-robust variance estimators for fixed effects models estimated by weighted (or unweighted) least squares. Theorem 2 of the paper concerns a computational short cut for a certain cluster-robust variance estimator in models with cluster-specific fixed effects. It claimed that this short cut works for models estimated by generalized least squares, as long as the weights are taken to be inverse of the working model. However, the theorem is incorrect. In this corrigendum, we review the CR2 variance estimator, describe the assertion of the theorem as originally stated, and demonstrate the error with a counter-example. We then provide a revised version of the theorem, which holds for the more limited set of models estimated by ordinary least squares.
{"title":"Corrigendum: Small Sample Methods for Cluster-Robust Variance Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Fixed Effects Models","authors":"James E. Pustejovskya, Elizabeth Tiptonb","doi":"10.1080/07350015.2023.2174123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2023.2174123","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Pustejovsky and Tipton considered how to implement cluster-robust variance estimators for fixed effects models estimated by weighted (or unweighted) least squares. Theorem 2 of the paper concerns a computational short cut for a certain cluster-robust variance estimator in models with cluster-specific fixed effects. It claimed that this short cut works for models estimated by generalized least squares, as long as the weights are taken to be inverse of the working model. However, the theorem is incorrect. In this corrigendum, we review the CR2 variance estimator, describe the assertion of the theorem as originally stated, and demonstrate the error with a counter-example. We then provide a revised version of the theorem, which holds for the more limited set of models estimated by ordinary least squares.","PeriodicalId":50247,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics","volume":"41 1","pages":"650 - 652"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41855908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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