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Predicting travel mode choice with a robust neural network and Shapley additive explanations analysis 利用稳健神经网络和夏普利加法解释分析预测出行方式选择
IF 2.3 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC Pub Date : 2024-04-22 DOI: 10.1049/itr2.12514
Li Tang, Chuanli Tang, Qi Fu, Changxi Ma

Predicting and understanding travellers’ mode choices is crucial to developing urban transportation systems and formulating traffic demand management strategies. Machine learning (ML) methods have been widely used as promising alternatives to traditional discrete choice models owing to their high prediction accuracy. However, a significant body of ML methods, especially the branch of neural networks, is constrained by overfitting and a lack of model interpretability. This study employs a neural network with feature selection for predicting travel mode choices and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis for model interpretation. A dataset collected in Chengdu, China was used for experimentation. The results reveal that the neural network achieves commendable prediction performance, with a 12% improvement over the traditional multinomial logit model. Also, feature selection using a combined result from two embedded methods can alleviate the overfitting tendency of the neural network, while establishing a more robust model against redundant or unnecessary variables. Additionally, the SHAP analysis identifies factors such as travel expenditure, age, driving experience, number of cars owned, individual monthly income, and trip purpose as significant features in our dataset. The heterogeneity of mode choice behaviour is significant among demographic groups, including different age, car ownership, and income levels.

预测和了解旅行者的模式选择对于开发城市交通系统和制定交通需求管理策略至关重要。机器学习(ML)方法因其预测准确性高而被广泛应用,有望替代传统的离散选择模型。然而,大量的 ML 方法,尤其是神经网络分支,都受到过度拟合和缺乏模型可解释性的限制。本研究采用带有特征选择的神经网络来预测出行方式选择,并采用夏普利加法解释(SHAP)分析来解释模型。实验使用了在中国成都收集的数据集。结果表明,神经网络的预测性能值得称赞,比传统的多二项对数模型提高了 12%。同时,利用两种嵌入方法的综合结果进行特征选择,可以缓解神经网络的过拟合趋势,同时建立一个更稳健的模型,避免冗余或不必要的变量。此外,SHAP 分析还确定了旅行支出、年龄、驾驶经验、拥有汽车数量、个人月收入和旅行目的等因素是我们数据集中的重要特征。在不同的人口群体中,包括不同年龄、汽车拥有量和收入水平在内,模式选择行为的异质性非常明显。
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引用次数: 0
RCP-RF: A comprehensive road-car-pedestrian risk management framework based on driving risk potential field RCP-RF:基于驾驶风险潜在领域的道路-汽车-行人综合风险管理框架
IF 2.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC Pub Date : 2024-04-14 DOI: 10.1049/itr2.12508
Shuhang Tan, Zhiling Wang, Yan Zhong
Recent years have witnessed the proliferation of traffic accidents, which led wide researches on automated vehicle (AV) technologies to reduce vehicle accidents, especially on risk assessment framework of AV technologies. However, existing time-based frameworks cannot handle complex traffic scenarios and ignore the motion tendency influence of each moving objects on the risk distribution, leading to performance degradation. To address this problem, a comprehensive driving risk management framework named RCP-RF is novelly proposed based on potential field theory under connected and automated vehicles environment, where the pedestrian risk metric is combined into a unified road-vehicle driving risk management framework. Different from existing algorithms, the motion tendency between ego and obstacle cars and the pedestrian factor are legitimately considered in the proposed framework, which can improve the performance of the driving risk model. Moreover, it requires only O(N2)�$O(N^2)$� of time complexity in the proposed method. Empirical studies validate the superiority of our proposed framework against state-of-the-art methods on real-world dataset NGSIM and real AV platform.
近年来,交通事故频发,为减少交通事故,人们对自动驾驶汽车(AV)技术进行了广泛研究,尤其是对自动驾驶汽车技术的风险评估框架进行了深入研究。然而,现有的基于时间的框架无法处理复杂的交通场景,而且忽略了每个运动物体的运动趋势对风险分布的影响,导致性能下降。针对这一问题,本文基于势场理论,在车联网和自动驾驶环境下提出了一种名为 RCP-RF 的综合驾驶风险管理框架,将行人风险指标纳入统一的道路-车辆驾驶风险管理框架。与现有算法不同的是,该框架合理地考虑了自我车与障碍车之间的运动趋势以及行人因素,从而提高了驾驶风险模型的性能。此外,所提出的方法只需要 O(N2)$O(N^2)$ 的时间复杂度。实证研究在真实世界数据集 NGSIM 和真实 AV 平台上验证了我们提出的框架相对于最先进方法的优越性。
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引用次数: 0
Real-time multi-objective speed planning ATO considering assist driving for subway 考虑地铁辅助驾驶的实时多目标速度规划 ATO
IF 2.3 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC Pub Date : 2024-04-13 DOI: 10.1049/itr2.12509
Xiaowen Wang, Zipei Zhang, Qingyuan Wang, Pengfei Sun, Xiaoyun Feng

Speed curve planning is one of the most important functions of automatic train operation (ATO). To improve the real-time optimization capability and driver-friendliness of the existing ATO, an extended ATO framework considering both automatic driving and assisted driving is designed. A multi-objective optimization model based on quadratic programming is established considering energy-saving, punctuality, and comfort. However, due to the influence of the weight of multi-objectives, this method cannot directly obtain the speed curve satisfying the trip time constraint. Further, based on the analysis about the weight of multi-objects, a time-constrained quadratic programming algorithm is proposed. With the proposed method, the speed curve can be calculated in real-time both before operations and during operations. For the former, time-varying train mass and trip time are considered to guarantee an optimal solution. For the latter, deviations, delays, and maloperations on the way are corrected. Simulation experiments verify the solvability and real-time performance of the proposed method. In particular, compared with the dynamic programming and (mixed-integer linear programming) MILP method, the proposed method is more energy-efficient and easier to be followed by the driver. In addition, a prototype is developed for commercial tests on a Beijing subway line. The relevant performance is verified in commercial tests.

速度曲线规划是列车自动运行(ATO)最重要的功能之一。为了提高现有自动列车运行系统的实时优化能力和驾驶员友好性,设计了一个同时考虑自动驾驶和辅助驾驶的扩展自动列车运行系统框架。建立了一个基于二次编程的多目标优化模型,考虑了节能、正点率和舒适性。然而,由于多目标权重的影响,该方法无法直接获得满足行程时间约束的速度曲线。基于对多目标权重的分析,本文提出了一种时间约束二次编程算法。利用所提出的方法,可以在运行前和运行中实时计算速度曲线。对于前者,考虑了列车质量和行程时间的时变,以保证最优解。对于后者,则要对途中的偏差、延误和误操作进行修正。仿真实验验证了所提方法的可解性和实时性。特别是,与动态编程和(混合整数线性规划)MILP 方法相比,所提出的方法更节能,也更容易为驾驶员所采用。此外,还开发了一个原型,在北京地铁线路上进行商业测试。相关性能在商业测试中得到了验证。
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引用次数: 0
Multisource-multitarget cooperative positioning using probability hypothesis density filter in internet of vehicles 在车联网中使用概率假设密度滤波器进行多源多目标协同定位
IF 2.3 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC Pub Date : 2024-04-13 DOI: 10.1049/itr2.12513
Nan Lin, Bingjian Yue, Shuming Shi, Suhua Jia, Xiaofan Ma

Accurate positioning of intelligent connected vehicle (ICV) is a key element for the development of cooperative intelligent transportation system. In vehicular networks, lots of state-related measurements, especially the mutual measurements between ICVs, are shared. It is an advisable strategy to fuse these measurements for a more robust positioning. In this context, an innovative framework, referred to as multisource-multitarget cooperative positioning (MMCP) is presented. In MMCP, ICVs are local information source, that upload both the states of ICVs estimated by on-board sensors and the relative vectors between surrounding objects and vehicles to a fusion centre. In the fusion centre, ICVs are selected as the global targets, and the relative vectors are converted into global measurements. Then, the MMCP is modelled into a multi-target tracking problem with specific targets. This paper proposes a low complexity Gaussian mixture probability hypothesis density (GM-PHD-LC) filter to match and fuse the global measurements to further improve the estimation of ICVs. The evaluation results show that our GM-PHD-LC can provide 10 Hz positioning services in urban area, and significantly improve the positioning accuracy compared to the standalone global navigation satellite system.

智能网联汽车(ICV)的精确定位是协同智能交通系统发展的关键因素。在车辆网络中,大量与状态相关的测量数据,尤其是 ICV 之间的相互测量数据是共享的。融合这些测量数据以实现更稳健的定位是一种可取的策略。在这种情况下,提出了一个创新框架,即多源多目标合作定位(MMCP)。在 MMCP 中,ICV 是本地信息源,可将车载传感器估计的 ICV 状态以及周围物体和车辆之间的相对矢量上传到融合中心。在融合中心,ICV 被选为全局目标,相对矢量被转换为全局测量值。然后,MMCP 被模拟为具有特定目标的多目标跟踪问题。本文提出了一种低复杂度高斯混合概率假设密度(GM-PHD-LC)滤波器来匹配和融合全局测量值,以进一步改进 ICV 的估计。评估结果表明,我们的 GM-PHD-LC 能够在城市地区提供 10 Hz 的定位服务,与独立的全球导航卫星系统相比,定位精度显著提高。
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引用次数: 0
Flexible optimal bus-schedule bridging for metro operation-interruption 为地铁运营中断提供灵活的最佳总线计划桥接
IF 2.3 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC Pub Date : 2024-04-13 DOI: 10.1049/itr2.12512
Yuanwen Lai, Jianhong Liang, Yinsheng Rao, Yanhui Fan, Renyan Zhan, Said Easa, Shuyi Wang

Under the sudden interruption of the metro, it is significant to dispatch emergency bridging buses to evacuate stranded passengers to improve linkage management and service reliability. Aiming at the problem of emergency bridging bus scheduling, considering the remaining capacity of conventional buses, passenger tolerance, and site convenience, a flexible combined emergency bridging bus scheduling model is constructed based on the constraints of vehicle capacity, dispatching capacity, and maximum evacuation times of emergency bridging bus, aiming at minimizing the maximum evacuation time and passenger delay. The improved Harris hawk algorithm is used to solve the model, and the evacuation plan of the demand-responsive and station-station bridging lines is obtained. The maximum evacuation time is 41 min, and the average delay of stranded passengers is 19 min. The results show that the maximum evacuation time is 10% and 27% less than the fixed combined and single scheduling. The average delay is 16% and 42% less than the fixed combination and traditional single scheduling. The sensitivity analysis of the influencing factors of emergency bridging bus scheduling is conducted. The results show that the flexible combined emergency bridging bus scheduling model constructed in this paper can improve evacuation efficiency and reduce passenger travel delays.

在地铁突然中断的情况下,调度应急桥接公交车疏散滞留乘客,对提高联动管理水平和服务可靠性具有重要意义。针对应急桥车调度问题,综合考虑常规公交车剩余运力、乘客容忍度、站点便利性等因素,基于车辆运力、调度运力、应急桥车最大疏散时间等约束条件,构建了灵活的应急桥车组合调度模型,力求最大疏散时间和乘客延误时间最小。利用改进的哈里斯鹰算法对模型进行求解,得到了需求响应型和站站衔接型线路的疏散方案。最大疏散时间为 41 分钟,滞留乘客平均延误时间为 19 分钟。结果表明,与固定组合调度和单一调度相比,最大疏散时间分别缩短了 10%和 27%。平均延误时间比固定组合调度和传统单一调度分别减少了 16% 和 42%。对应急桥接公交调度的影响因素进行了敏感性分析。结果表明,本文构建的灵活组合应急桥接公交调度模型可以提高疏散效率,减少乘客出行延误。
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引用次数: 0
Cyber security analysis of connected vehicles 联网车辆的网络安全分析
IF 2.3 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.1049/itr2.12504
Maria Drolence Mwanje, Omprakash Kaiwartya, Mohammad Aljaidi, Yue Cao, Sushil Kumar, Devki Nandan Jha, Abdallah Naser, Jaime Lloret

The sensor-enabled in-vehicle communication and infrastructure-centric vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communications have significantly contributed to the spark in the amount of data exchange in the connected and autonomous vehicles (CAV) environment. The growing vehicular communications pose a potential cyber security risk considering online vehicle hijacking. Therefore, there is a critical need to prioritize the cyber security issues in the CAV research theme. In this context, this paper presents a cyber security analysis of connected vehicle traffic environments (CyACV). Specifically, potential cyber security attacks in CAV are critically investigated and validated via experimental data sets. Trust in V2X communication for connected vehicles is explored in detail focusing on trust computation and trust management approaches and related challenges. A wide range of trust-based cyber security solutions for CAV have been critically investigated considering their strengths and weaknesses. Open research directions have been highlighted as potential new research themes in CAV cyber security area.

支持传感器的车载通信和以基础设施为中心的 "车对万物"(V2X)通信极大地促进了互联和自动驾驶汽车(CAV)环境中数据交换量的增长。考虑到在线车辆劫持,不断增长的车辆通信带来了潜在的网络安全风险。因此,亟需在 CAV 研究主题中优先考虑网络安全问题。在此背景下,本文对互联车辆交通环境(CyACV)进行了网络安全分析。具体而言,本文通过实验数据集对 CAV 中潜在的网络安全攻击进行了批判性研究和验证。详细探讨了互联车辆 V2X 通信中的信任问题,重点是信任计算和信任管理方法及相关挑战。考虑到各种基于信任的 CAV 网络安全解决方案的优缺点,对其进行了批判性研究。作为 CAV 网络安全领域潜在的新研究课题,还强调了开放式研究方向。
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引用次数: 0
High-level decision-making for autonomous overtaking: An MPC-based switching control approach 自主超车的高层决策:基于 MPC 的切换控制方法
IF 2.3 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.1049/itr2.12507
Xue-Fang Wang, Wen-Hua Chen, Jingjing Jiang, Yunda Yan

The key motivation of this paper lies in the development of a high-level decision-making framework for autonomousovertaking maneuvers on two-lane country roads with dynamic oncoming traffic. To generate an optimal and safe decisionsequence for such scenario, an innovative high-level decision-making framework that combines model predictive control (MPC) and switching control methodologies is introduced. Specifically, the autonomous vehicle is abstracted and modelled as a switched system. This abstraction allows vehicle to operate in different modes corresponding to different high-level decisions. It establishes a crucial connection between high-level decision-making and low-level behaviour of the autonomous vehicle. Furthermore, barrier functions and predictive models that account for the relationship between the autonomous vehicle and oncoming traffic are incorporated. This technique enables us to guarantee the satisfaction of constraints, while also assessing performance within a prediction horizon. By repeatedly solving the online constrained optimization problems, we not only generate an optimal decision sequence for overtaking safely and efficiently but also enhance the adaptability and robustness. This adaptability allows the system to respond effectively to potential changes and unexpected events. Finally, the performance of the proposed MPC framework is demonstrated via simulations of four driving scenarios, which shows that it can handle multiple behaviours.

本文的主要动机在于开发一个高级决策框架,用于在有动态来车的双车道乡村公路上进行自主超车操作。为了在这种情况下生成最佳和安全的决策结果,本文引入了一个创新的高层决策框架,该框架结合了模型预测控制(MPC)和开关控制方法。具体来说,自动驾驶车辆被抽象为一个开关系统并建立模型。通过这种抽象,车辆可以根据不同的高层决策以不同的模式运行。它在高层决策和自动驾驶车辆的低层行为之间建立了重要联系。此外,还纳入了障碍功能和预测模型,以考虑自动驾驶车辆与迎面而来的交通之间的关系。这种技术使我们能够保证满足约束条件,同时还能评估预测范围内的性能。通过反复求解在线约束优化问题,我们不仅能生成安全高效超车的最佳决策序列,还能增强适应性和鲁棒性。这种适应性使系统能够有效应对潜在的变化和突发事件。最后,通过对四种驾驶场景的模拟,展示了所提出的 MPC 框架的性能,表明它可以处理多种行为。
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引用次数: 0
Research on a local path planning algorithm based on multivehicle collaborative mapping and a potential field method 基于多车协同绘图和势场方法的局部路径规划算法研究
IF 2.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC Pub Date : 2024-03-20 DOI: 10.1049/itr2.12491
Chunya Sun, Haixin Jing, Yanqiu Xiao, Guangzhen Cui, Meijie Zhao, Weili Zhang

To eliminate blind spots in the field of vision and achieve a safe and collision-free path, this paper proposes a path planning method based on multivehicle collaborative mapping in the context of vehicle networking. First, a multi vehicle map merging strategy based on the fireworks algorithm is proposed. In this strategy, a dissimilarity objective function based on the concept of grid map similarity is established and an improved fireworks algorithm is used to quickly search for the maximum overlap between local maps, achieving multivehicle collaborative mapping. Second, a real-time path planning method based on artificial potential field theory is proposed. The information obtained from multivehicle collaborative mapping is first combined with the potential field model to form a multifield coupled road environment model. Then, the obstacle repulsion potential field model is improved to address the issues of traditional artificial potential field methods that target unreachability and poor dynamic response. The feasibility and effectiveness of the collaborative path planning method and single vehicle path planning method are tested through simulation analysis. This paper demonstrates through simulation analysis that the proposed path planning method can effectively achieve beyond line of sight perception and safely and comfortably guide vehicles to complete path planning.

为了消除视野盲区,实现安全无碰撞的路径,本文提出了一种基于车联网背景下多车协同映射的路径规划方法。首先,提出了一种基于烟花算法的多车地图合并策略。在该策略中,建立了基于网格地图相似性概念的不相似目标函数,并使用改进的焰火算法快速搜索局部地图之间的最大重叠,实现了多车协同映射。其次,提出了一种基于人工势场理论的实时路径规划方法。首先将多车协同映射获得的信息与势场模型相结合,形成多场耦合道路环境模型。然后,对障碍物排斥势场模型进行改进,以解决传统人工势场方法针对无法到达和动态响应差的问题。通过仿真分析,检验了协同路径规划方法和单车路径规划方法的可行性和有效性。本文通过仿真分析证明,所提出的路径规划方法能有效实现超视线感知,安全、舒适地引导车辆完成路径规划。
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引用次数: 0
A Delaunay triangulation based dynamic pricing approach to profit-driven crowdsourced package delivery 基于 Delaunay 三角测量的动态定价方法,适用于利润驱动型众包快递
IF 2.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1049/itr2.12436
Zhifeng Zhou, Rong Chen, Wu Deng

Crowdsourced package delivery (CPD) has gained great interest from the logistics industry and academe due to its signficant economic and environmental impact. A number of progresses have been reported; however, dynamic pricing, as a special and significant part of the uncertain CPD markets, is far less explored. To address the problem, a novel Delaunay Triangulation (DT) based pricing strategy is proposed for dealing with the imbalanced demand and supply in local markets with the aim to maximizing the profit of the CPD platform. To cater to drivers’ wishes further, the hyperbolic temporal discounting function is applied to estimate their psychological rewards in order to increase the possibility of package acceptance. A three-stage framework consisting of the DT-based pricing, the matching pruning and the package assigning algorithm is proposed, to figure out the best-possible package-driver matching. With the dataset generated by Brinkhoff road network generator in the city of Jinan and Luoyang, China, a series of experiments is conducted to evaluate the proposed approach against several representative baseline approaches. Experimental results show that the approach significantly outperforms the other approaches in terms of effectiveness and efficiency.

众包配送(CPD)因其对经济和环境的重大影响而备受物流业和学术界的关注。已有许多研究取得了进展,但动态定价作为不确定的 CPD 市场中一个特殊而重要的部分,其研究却远远不够。为解决这一问题,我们提出了一种基于 Delaunay Triangulation (DT) 的新型定价策略,用于处理本地市场的供需失衡问题,以实现 CPD 平台的利润最大化。为了进一步迎合司机的意愿,还应用了双曲时间贴现函数来估算他们的心理回报,以增加他们接受套餐的可能性。本文提出了一个由基于 DT 的定价、匹配剪枝和包裹分配算法组成的三阶段框架,以找出包裹与司机之间的最佳匹配。利用中国济南和洛阳的布林克霍夫路网生成器生成的数据集,进行了一系列实验,以评估所提出的方法与几种具有代表性的基线方法之间的差异。实验结果表明,该方法在有效性和效率方面明显优于其他方法。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling autonomous vehicle parking: An agent-based simulation approach 自动泊车建模:基于代理的模拟方法
IF 2.3 4区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC Pub Date : 2024-03-12 DOI: 10.1049/itr2.12506
Wenhao Li, Yewen Jia, Yanjie Ji, Phil Blythe, Shuo Li

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) present a paradigm shift in addressing conventional parking challenges. Unlike human-driven vehicles, AVs can strategically park or cruise until summoned by users. Utilizing utility theory, the parking decision-making processes of AVs users are explored, taking into account constraints related to both cost and time. An agent-based simulation approach is adopted to construct an AV parking model, reflecting the complex dynamics of the parking decision process in the real world, where each user's choice has a ripple effect on traffic conditions, consequently affecting the feasible options for other users. The simulation experiments indicate that 11.50% of AVs gravitate towards parking lots near their destinations, while over 50% of AVs avoid public parking amenities altogether. This trend towards minimizing individual parking costs prompts AVs to undertake extended empty cruising, resulting in a significant increase of 48.18% in total vehicle mileage. Moreover, the pricing structure across various parking facilities and management dictates the parking preferences of AVs, establishing a nuanced trade-off between parking expenses and proximity for these vehicles.

自动驾驶汽车(AVs)在应对传统停车挑战方面带来了范式转变。与人类驾驶的车辆不同,自动驾驶汽车可以战略性地停车或巡航,直到用户召唤。利用效用理论,考虑到与成本和时间相关的制约因素,探讨了自动驾驶汽车用户的停车决策过程。采用基于代理的仿真方法构建了一个 AV 停车模型,反映了现实世界中停车决策过程的复杂动态,每个用户的选择都会对交通状况产生连锁反应,从而影响其他用户的可行选择。模拟实验表明,11.50% 的自动驾驶汽车倾向于选择目的地附近的停车场,而超过 50% 的自动驾驶汽车则完全避开公共停车设施。这种将个人停车成本降至最低的趋势促使自动驾驶汽车进行长时间的空车巡航,从而使车辆的总行驶里程大幅增加了 48.18%。此外,各种停车设施和管理的定价结构决定了自动驾驶汽车的停车偏好,为这些车辆在停车费用和就近停车之间建立了微妙的权衡。
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引用次数: 0
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IET Intelligent Transport Systems
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