{"title":"The Econometric Society Annual Reports. Report of the Treasurer","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA921TREAS","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA921TREAS","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 1","pages":"275-287"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139643888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We formulate an order over constraint sets , called the parallelogram order, which guarantees that argmin{p ⋅ x:x ∈ A} increases in the product order as A increases in the parallelogram order, for any vector . Using this result, we characterize the utility/production functions that lead to normal demand as well as the closely related class of production functions with marginal costs that increase with factor prices. By generalizing the concept of supermodularity, we also characterize the class of production functions for which factors are complements. In the context of decision-making under uncertainty, our new set order leads to natural generalizations of first-order stochastic dominance in multi-prior models.
{"title":"Comparative Statics With Linear Objectives: Normality, Complementarity, and Ranking Multi-Prior Beliefs","authors":"Paweł Dziewulski, John K.-H. Quah","doi":"10.3982/ECTA19738","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA19738","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 <p>We formulate an order over constraint sets , called the <i>parallelogram order</i>, which guarantees that argmin{<i>p</i> ⋅ <i>x</i>:<i>x</i> ∈ <i>A</i>} increases in the product order as <i>A</i> increases in the parallelogram order, for any vector . Using this result, we characterize the utility/production functions that lead to normal demand as well as the closely related class of production functions with marginal costs that increase with factor prices. By generalizing the concept of supermodularity, we also characterize the class of production functions for which factors are complements. In the context of decision-making under uncertainty, our new set order leads to natural generalizations of first-order stochastic dominance in multi-prior models.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 1","pages":"167-200"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA19738","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139643931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Econometric Society Annual Reports. Report of the Secretary","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA921SEC","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA921SEC","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 1","pages":"259-274"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139643887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study the effect of interest rates on wealth inequality. While lower rates decrease the growth rate of rentiers, they also increase the growth rate of entrepreneurs by making it cheaper to raise capital. To understand which effect dominates, we derive a sufficient statistic for the effect of interest rates on the Pareto exponent of the wealth distribution: it depends on the lifetime equity and debt issuance rate of individuals in the right tail of the wealth distribution. We estimate this sufficient statistic using new data on the trajectory of top fortunes in the U.S. Overall, we find that the secular decline in interest rates (or more generally of required rates of returns) can account for about 40% of the rise in Pareto inequality; that is, the degree to which the super rich pulled ahead relative to the rich.
{"title":"Wealth Inequality in a Low Rate Environment","authors":"Matthieu Gomez, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant","doi":"10.3982/ECTA19092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA19092","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the effect of interest rates on wealth inequality. While lower rates decrease the growth rate of rentiers, they also increase the growth rate of entrepreneurs by making it cheaper to raise capital. To understand which effect dominates, we derive a sufficient statistic for the effect of interest rates on the Pareto exponent of the wealth distribution: it depends on the lifetime equity and debt issuance rate of individuals in the right tail of the wealth distribution. We estimate this sufficient statistic using new data on the trajectory of top fortunes in the U.S. Overall, we find that the secular decline in interest rates (or more generally of required rates of returns) can account for about 40% of the rise in Pareto inequality; that is, the degree to which the super rich pulled ahead relative to the rich.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 1","pages":"201-246"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139643932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Submission of Manuscripts to the Econometric Society Monograph Series","authors":"","doi":"10.3982/ECTA921SUM","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA921SUM","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 1","pages":"309"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139643917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the effect of a restorative justice intervention targeted at 143 youth ages 13 to 17 facing felony charges of medium severity (e.g., burglary, assault). Eligible youths were randomly assigned to participate in the Make-it-Right (MIR) restorative justice program or a control group where they faced standard criminal prosecution. We estimate the effects of MIR on the likelihood that a youth will be rearrested in the four years following randomization. Assignment to MIR reduces the probability of a rearrest within six months by 19 percentage points, a 44 percent reduction relative to the control group. Moreover, the reduction in recidivism persists even four years after randomization. Thus, our estimates show that restorative justice conferencing can reduce recidivism among youth charged with relatively serious offenses and can be an effective alternative to traditional criminal justice practices.
本文研究了针对 143 名面临中等严重程度重罪指控（如入室盗窃、袭击）的 13 至 17 岁青少年的恢复性司法干预措施的效果。符合条件的青少年被随机分配到 "改过自新"（Make-it-Right，MIR）恢复性司法项目或对照组，前者面临标准的刑事起诉。我们估算了 MIR 对随机分配后四年内青少年再次被逮捕的可能性的影响。与对照组相比，被分配到 MIR 计划的青少年在 6 个月内再次被逮捕的概率降低了 19 个百分点，降幅达 44%。此外，即使在随机分配四年后，再犯率的下降趋势依然存在。因此，我们的估算结果表明，恢复性司法会议可以减少被指控犯有相对严重罪行的青少年的累犯率，是传统刑事司法实践的有效替代方案。
{"title":"Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program","authors":"Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, Alissa Skog","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20996","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20996","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies the effect of a restorative justice intervention targeted at 143 youth ages 13 to 17 facing felony charges of medium severity (e.g., burglary, assault). Eligible youths were randomly assigned to participate in the Make-it-Right (MIR) restorative justice program or a control group where they faced standard criminal prosecution. We estimate the effects of MIR on the likelihood that a youth will be rearrested in the four years following randomization. Assignment to MIR reduces the probability of a rearrest within six months by 19 percentage points, a 44 percent reduction relative to the control group. Moreover, the reduction in recidivism persists even four years after randomization. Thus, our estimates show that restorative justice conferencing can reduce recidivism among youth charged with relatively serious offenses and can be an effective alternative to traditional criminal justice practices.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 1","pages":"61-78"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139643927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
<p><span>In an innovative paper, replete</span> with many important results and insights, <span>Gul and Pesendorfer</span> (<span>2014</span>) (hereafter, GP) proposed a novel model for choice under uncertainty. They considered a setting of purely subjective uncertainty in which the objects of choice are acts that, for each state of nature , deliver a monetary prize <i>x</i> from a set of final prizes , with . We denote the set of acts by , and the decision-maker's preference relation defined over by a weak order ≿.</p><p>In GP's model, the decision-maker (hereafter, DM) has a prior <i>μ</i> defined over , a <i>σ</i>-algebra of what they referred to as <i>ideal events</i>. GP interpreted any ideal event <i>E</i> (in ) as one for which the DM can precisely quantify that event's uncertainty by assigning it the probability . An event is deemed ideal by the DM if both it and its complement together satisfy a version of <span>Savage</span> (<span>1954</span>)'s sure thing principle.</p><p>Unfortunately, GP's characterization fails on two accounts, as their axioms neither ensure</p><p>In this note, we show that strengthening one of GP's axioms, along with a slight modification of their continuity axiom, provides a characterization of EUU maximization. But first, we present in Section 2 an example of an EUU functional involving a state-dependent interval utility and show that the preferences generated by this example, despite satisfying all of GP's axioms, cannot be represented by an EUU function of the form in (2).</p><p>Let the state space be endowed with the Lebesgue measure <i>μ</i>. Let denote the set of measurable events with respect to <i>μ</i>. Following GP, is the (interval) envelope of an act <i>f</i>, with (respectively, ) denoting the lower (respectively, upper) envelope.</p><p>We show that ≿ satisfies GP's Axioms A1–A6 which we list here for the convenience of the reader. To state them, we employ the following notation: for any pair of acts <i>f</i> and <i>g</i> and any event , <i>fCg</i> denotes the act that agrees with <i>f</i> on <i>C</i> and with <i>g</i> on the complement of <i>C</i>. We also require the following definitions.</p><p>An event <i>E</i> is <i>ideal</i> if implies for all acts <i>f</i>, <i>g</i>, <i>h</i>, and . An event <i>A</i> is <i>null</i> if for all acts <i>f</i>, <i>g</i>, and <i>h</i>. An event <i>D</i> is <i>diffuse</i> if for every non-null ideal event <i>E</i>. Let (respectively, , ) be the set of all ideal (respectively, null, diffuse) events. Let denote the set of <i>ideal simple</i> acts.<sup>1</sup></p><p>As in GP, we say an event <i>E</i> is <i>left</i> (respectively, <i>right</i>) ideal if implies (respectively, implies ). Let and be the collection of left and right ideal sets, respectively. GP's Lemma B0 establishes .</p><p>In line with GP's use of notation, events <i>E</i>, , , et cetera, denote ideal events while events <i>D</i>, , denote diffuse events. The following are GP's six Axiom
Gul 和 Pesendorfer（2014 年）（以下简称 GP）在一篇充满许多重要成果和见解的创新论文中，提出了一个新颖的不确定性下的选择模型。他们考虑了一个纯主观的不确定性环境，在这个环境中，选择的对象是行为，对于每一种自然状态，这些行为都会从一组最终奖品中提供一个货币奖 x，奖品为 。在 GP 的模型中，决策者（以下简称 DM）有一个先验值 μ，该先验值定义于 ，这是一个理想事件的 σ 代数。GP 将任何理想事件 E（在 ）解释为 DM 可以通过赋予其概率来精确量化该事件不确定性的事件。不幸的是，GP 的表征在两个方面都失败了，因为他们的公理既不能确保EUU 最大化，也不能确保EUU 最大化。但首先，我们将在第 2 节中举例说明一个与状态相关的区间效用的 EUU 函数，并证明这个例子所产生的偏好尽管满足 GP 的所有公理，却不能用（2）式的 EUU 函数来表示。让 μ 表示可度量事件的集合。按照 GP 的说法，是行为 f 的（区间）包络，（分别为， ）表示下包络（分别为， 上包络）。我们证明≿ 满足 GP 的公理 A1-A6，为了方便读者，我们在此列出这些公理。为了说明这些公理，我们使用了以下符号：对于任何一对行为 f 和 g 以及任何事件，fCg 表示在 C 上与 f 一致的行为，以及在 C 的补码上与 g 一致的行为。如果对所有行为 f、g 和 h 来说，事件 A 都是空的，那么事件 D 就是扩散的。让 表示理想简单行为的集合。1 如在 GP 中，如果意味着 （分别意味着 ），我们说事件 E 是左（分别是右）理想的。让 和 分别是左理想集和右理想集的集合。根据 GP 的符号用法，事件 E, , , 等表示理想事件，而事件 D, , 表示扩散事件。下面是 GP 的六条公理（A1-A6）。为了验证≿ 是否满足上述六条公理，我们利用了这样一个事实：当且仅当一个事件是可度量的（即是 ）的一个元素时，它才被≿ 视为理想事件。 回到公理，我们可以看到每条公理都得到了如下验证：由于由（3）产生的偏好关系≿满足 GP 的公理 1-6，因此根据 GP 的定理 1，它应该允许一个具有先验 μ 的 EUU 表示2。我们保留了 GP 的四条公理，并建议加强公理 A3 和修改公理 A6(i)，而保留原来的公理 A6(ii)不变。公理 A3 的加强确保了扩散 "赌注 "的条件确定性等价物的恒定性，从而排除了上一节的（反）例子。对公理A6(i)的修改使我们能够确定理想事件集确实是一个σ代数。GP的公理A6(i)意味着阿罗单调连续性的弱化版本，它适用于理想行为和理想事件。我们的新公理 A6*(i) 是适用于所有行为和理想事件的单调连续性公理。A6*(i) 意味着理想事件的可数可加性，简化了定理 1 的证明。下一个性质确保了扩散行为之间的条件确定性等价性。为简单起见，A7 可与 A3 合并如下：3
{"title":"A Comment on: “Expected Uncertain Utility”","authors":"Simon Grant, Sh. L. Liu, Jingni Yang","doi":"10.3982/ECTA21843","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA21843","url":null,"abstract":"<p><span>In an innovative paper, replete</span> with many important results and insights, <span>Gul and Pesendorfer</span> (<span>2014</span>) (hereafter, GP) proposed a novel model for choice under uncertainty. They considered a setting of purely subjective uncertainty in which the objects of choice are acts that, for each state of nature , deliver a monetary prize <i>x</i> from a set of final prizes , with . We denote the set of acts by , and the decision-maker's preference relation defined over by a weak order ≿.</p><p>In GP's model, the decision-maker (hereafter, DM) has a prior <i>μ</i> defined over , a <i>σ</i>-algebra of what they referred to as <i>ideal events</i>. GP interpreted any ideal event <i>E</i> (in ) as one for which the DM can precisely quantify that event's uncertainty by assigning it the probability . An event is deemed ideal by the DM if both it and its complement together satisfy a version of <span>Savage</span> (<span>1954</span>)'s sure thing principle.</p><p>Unfortunately, GP's characterization fails on two accounts, as their axioms neither ensure</p><p>In this note, we show that strengthening one of GP's axioms, along with a slight modification of their continuity axiom, provides a characterization of EUU maximization. But first, we present in Section 2 an example of an EUU functional involving a state-dependent interval utility and show that the preferences generated by this example, despite satisfying all of GP's axioms, cannot be represented by an EUU function of the form in (2).</p><p>Let the state space be endowed with the Lebesgue measure <i>μ</i>. Let denote the set of measurable events with respect to <i>μ</i>. Following GP, is the (interval) envelope of an act <i>f</i>, with (respectively, ) denoting the lower (respectively, upper) envelope.</p><p>We show that ≿ satisfies GP's Axioms A1–A6 which we list here for the convenience of the reader. To state them, we employ the following notation: for any pair of acts <i>f</i> and <i>g</i> and any event , <i>fCg</i> denotes the act that agrees with <i>f</i> on <i>C</i> and with <i>g</i> on the complement of <i>C</i>. We also require the following definitions.</p><p>An event <i>E</i> is <i>ideal</i> if implies for all acts <i>f</i>, <i>g</i>, <i>h</i>, and . An event <i>A</i> is <i>null</i> if for all acts <i>f</i>, <i>g</i>, and <i>h</i>. An event <i>D</i> is <i>diffuse</i> if for every non-null ideal event <i>E</i>. Let (respectively, , ) be the set of all ideal (respectively, null, diffuse) events. Let denote the set of <i>ideal simple</i> acts.<sup>1</sup></p><p>As in GP, we say an event <i>E</i> is <i>left</i> (respectively, <i>right</i>) ideal if implies (respectively, implies ). Let and be the collection of left and right ideal sets, respectively. GP's Lemma B0 establishes .</p><p>In line with GP's use of notation, events <i>E</i>, , , et cetera, denote ideal events while events <i>D</i>, , denote diffuse events. The following are GP's six Axiom","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 1","pages":"247-256"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA21843","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139655335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yeon-Koo Che, Jinwoo Kim, Fuhito Kojima, Christopher Thomas Ryan
We give two characterizations of Pareto optimality via “near” weighted utilitarian welfare maximization. One characterization sequentially maximizes utilitarian welfare functions using a finite sequence of nonnegative and eventually positive welfare weights. The other maximizes a utilitarian welfare function with a certain class of positive hyperreal weights. The social welfare ordering represented by these “near” weighted utilitarian welfare criteria is characterized by the standard axioms for weighted utilitarianism under a suitable weakening of the continuity axiom.
{"title":"“Near” Weighted Utilitarian Characterizations of Pareto Optima","authors":"Yeon-Koo Che, Jinwoo Kim, Fuhito Kojima, Christopher Thomas Ryan","doi":"10.3982/ECTA18930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18930","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We give two characterizations of Pareto optimality via “near” weighted utilitarian welfare maximization. One characterization sequentially maximizes utilitarian welfare functions using a finite sequence of nonnegative and eventually positive welfare weights. The other maximizes a utilitarian welfare function with a certain class of positive hyperreal weights. The social welfare ordering represented by these “near” weighted utilitarian welfare criteria is characterized by the standard axioms for weighted utilitarianism under a suitable weakening of the continuity axiom.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"92 1","pages":"141-165"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139643930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号