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A Quest for Knowledge 对知识的追求
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22144
Christoph Carnehl, Johannes Schneider

Is more novel research always desirable? We develop a model in which knowledge shapes society's policies and guides the search for discoveries. Researchers select a question and how intensely to study it. The novelty of a question determines both the value and difficulty of discovering its answer. We show that the benefits of discoveries are nonmonotone in novelty. Knowledge expands endogenously step-by-step over time. Through a dynamic externality, moonshots—research on questions more novel than what is myopically optimal—can improve the evolution of knowledge. Moonshots induce research cycles in which subsequent researchers connect the moonshot to previous knowledge.

是否总是需要更多新颖的研究?我们建立了一个模型,在这个模型中,知识影响着社会政策,并引导着探索发现。研究人员会选择一个问题,并决定如何深入研究这个问题。问题的新颖性决定了发现其答案的价值和难度。我们的研究表明,发现的收益与新颖性是非单调的。随着时间的推移,知识会内生地逐步扩展。通过动态外部性,"登月计划"--对新颖性高于近视最优的问题进行研究--可以改善知识的演进。登月计划会引发研究周期,在这个周期中,后续研究人员会将登月计划与之前的知识联系起来。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Incarceration on Employment, Earnings, and Tax Filing 监禁对就业、收入和纳税申报的影响
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22028
Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Carl McPherson, Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, Evan K. Rose, Yotam Shem-Tov, Jeffrey Weaver

We study the effect of incarceration on wages, self-employment, and taxes and transfers in North Carolina and Ohio using two quasi-experimental research designs: discontinuities in sentencing guidelines and random assignment to judges. Across both states, incarceration generates short-term drops in economic activity while individuals remain in prison. As a result, a year-long sentence decreases cumulative earnings over five years by 13%. Beyond five years, however, there is no evidence of lower employment, wage earnings, or self-employment in either state, as well as among defendants with no prior incarceration history. These results suggest that upstream factors, such as other types of criminal justice interactions or pre-existing labor market detachment, are more likely to be the cause of low earnings among the previously incarcerated, who we estimate would earn just $5000 per year on average if spared a prison sentence.

我们在北卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州研究了监禁对工资、自营职业、税收和转移的影响,采用了两种准实验研究设计:量刑指南的不连续性和对法官的随机分配。在这两个州,监禁会导致经济活动在短期内下降,而个人仍在狱中。因此,一年的刑期会使五年内的累计收入减少13%。然而,在五年以上的时间里,没有证据表明在任何一个州都有较低的就业、工资收入或自营职业,也没有证据表明被告之前没有监禁史。这些结果表明,上游因素,如其他类型的刑事司法相互作用或先前存在的劳动力市场脱离,更有可能是先前被监禁者收入低的原因,我们估计,如果不被判入狱,他们平均每年只能挣5000美元。
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引用次数: 0
Frontmatter of Econometrica Vol. 93 Iss. 2 《计量经济学》第93卷第2期
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA932FM
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引用次数: 0
Estimating Candidate Valence 估计候选价
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20496
Kei Kawai, Takeaki Sunada

We estimate valence measures of candidates running in U.S. House elections from data on vote shares. Our identification and estimation strategy builds on ideas developed for estimating production functions, allowing us to control for possible endogeneity of campaign spending and sample selection of candidates due to endogenous entry. We find that incumbents have substantially higher valence measures than challengers running against them, resulting in about 3.5 percentage-point differences in the vote share, on average. Eliminating differences in the valence of challengers and incumbents results in an increase in the winning probability of a challenger from 6.5% to 12.1%. Our measure of candidate valence can be used to study various substantive questions of political economy. We illustrate its usefulness by studying the source of incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections.

我们从选票份额的数据中估计参加美国众议院选举的候选人的价值。我们的识别和估计策略建立在估算生产函数的想法之上,允许我们控制由于内生进入而可能产生的竞选支出和候选人样本选择的内生性。我们发现,在职者比挑战者拥有更高的有效措施,导致平均选票份额差异约为3.5个百分点。消除挑战者和现任者的价值差异,将挑战者的获胜概率从6.5%提高到12.1%。我们的候选价度量可以用来研究政治经济学的各种实质性问题。我们通过研究美国众议院选举中在职优势的来源来说明它的有用性。
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引用次数: 0
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Tax Meet Arrow–Debreu 限额交易和碳税与阿罗-德布鲁会面
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22923
Robert M. Anderson, Haosui Duanmu

We propose two general equilibrium models, quota equilibrium, and emission tax equilibrium. Government specifies quotas or taxes on emissions, and then refrains from further action. All results remain valid regardless of how government chooses its emissions target. Quota equilibrium exists; the allocation of emission property rights impacts the distribution of welfare. If the only externality arises from total net emissions, quota equilibrium is Pareto optimal among all feasible outcomes with the same total net emissions. For certain tax rates, emission tax equilibrium may not exist. Every quota equilibrium can be realized as an emission tax equilibrium and vice versa. However, different quota prices may arise in equilibrium from a single quota, and different emission levels may arise in equilibrium from a single tax rate. This leads to inequivalence between quota and emission tax equilibria.

本文提出了两种一般均衡模型:配额均衡和排放税均衡。政府规定了排放配额或税收,然后不再采取进一步行动。无论政府如何选择排放目标,所有结果都是有效的。配额均衡存在;排污产权的配置影响着福利的分配。如果唯一的外部性来自净排放总量,那么在净排放总量相同的所有可行结果中,配额均衡是帕累托最优的。对于某些税率,排放税均衡可能不存在。每一个配额均衡都可以实现为排放税均衡,反之亦然。然而,单一配额可能均衡地产生不同的配额价格,单一税率可能均衡地产生不同的排放水平。这导致配额和排放税平衡之间的不平等。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative Statics With Adjustment Costs and the Le Chatelier Principle 具有调整成本的比较静力学与勒夏特列原理
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22841
Eddie Dekel, John K.-H. Quah, Ludvig Sinander

We develop a theory of monotone comparative statics for models with adjustment costs. We show that comparative-statics conclusions may be drawn under the usual ordinal complementarity assumptions on the objective function, assuming very little about costs: only a mild monotonicity condition is required. We use this insight to prove a general Le Chatelier principle: under the ordinal complementarity assumptions, if short-run adjustment is subject to a monotone cost, then the long-run response to a shock is greater than the short-run response. We extend these results to a fully dynamic model of adjustment over time: the Le Chatelier principle remains valid, and under slightly stronger assumptions, optimal adjustment follows a monotone path. We apply our results to models of saving, production, pricing, labor supply, and investment.

我们为有调整成本的模型提出了一种单调比较静态理论。我们表明,在目标函数的通常序互补性假设下,只需对成本作很少的假设:只需一个温和的单调性条件,就可以得出比较静态结论。我们利用这一洞察力证明了一般的勒沙特利埃原理:在序互补性假设下,如果短期调整受单调成本的影响,那么对冲击的长期响应大于短期响应。我们将这些结果扩展到随时间调整的完全动态模型:勒沙特列尔原理仍然有效,而且在稍强的假设条件下,最优调整遵循单调路径。我们将结果应用于储蓄、生产、定价、劳动力供给和投资模型。
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引用次数: 0
2024 Election of Fellows to the Econometric Society 2024年计量经济学会会员选举
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA932EF
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引用次数: 0
A Comment on: “Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data” 对“自回归条件持续时间:一种非规则间隔交易数据的新模型”的评论
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21896
Giuseppe Cavaliere, Thomas Mikosch, Anders Rahbek, Frederik Vilandt

Based on the GARCH literature, Engle and Russell (1998) established consistency and asymptotic normality of the QMLE for the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, assuming strict stationarity and ergodicity of the durations. Using novel arguments based on renewal process theory, we show that their results hold under the stronger requirement that durations have finite expectation. However, we demonstrate that this is not always the case under the assumption of stationary and ergodic durations. Specifically, we provide a counterexample where the MLE is asymptotically mixed normal and converges at a rate significantly slower than usual. The main difference between ACD and GARCH asymptotics is that the former must account for the number of durations in a given time span being random. As a by-product, we present a new lemma which can be applied to analyze asymptotic properties of extremum estimators when the number of observations is random.

基于 GARCH 文献,Engle 和 Russell(1998 年)建立了自回归条件持续时间(ACD)模型的 QMLE 一致性和渐近正态性,假设持续时间具有严格的静止性和遍历性。我们利用基于更新过程理论的新颖论证,证明了在持续时间具有有限期望这一更高要求下,他们的结果是成立的。然而,我们证明,在持续时间具有静止性和遍历性的假设条件下,情况并非总是如此。具体来说,我们提供了一个反例,在这个反例中,MLE 是渐近混合正态分布,收敛速度比通常情况下慢得多。ACD 与 GARCH 渐进式的主要区别在于,前者必须考虑到给定时间跨度内的持续时间数量是随机的。作为副产品,我们提出了一个新的 Lemma,可用于分析观测值数量随机时极值估计器的渐近特性。
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引用次数: 0
Feedback Design in Dynamic Moral Hazard 动态道德风险中的反馈设计
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21871
Jeffrey C. Ely, George Georgiadis, Luis Rayo

We study the joint design of dynamic incentives and performance feedback for an environment with a coarse (all-or-nothing) measure of performance, and show that hiding information from the agent can be an optimal way to motivate effort. Using a novel approach to incentive compatibility, we derive a two-phase solution that begins with a “silent phase” where the agent is given no feedback and is asked to work non-stop, and ends with a “full-transparency phase” where the agent stops working as soon as a performance threshold is met. Hiding information leads to greater effort, but an ignorant agent is also more expensive to motivate. The two-phase solution—where the agent's ignorance is fully frontloaded—stems from a “backward compounding effect” that raises the cost of hiding information as time passes.

我们研究了具有粗糙(全有或全无)绩效度量环境的动态激励和绩效反馈的联合设计,并表明对代理隐藏信息可能是激励努力的最佳方式。使用一种新颖的激励兼容性方法,我们得出了一个两阶段的解决方案,从一个“沉默阶段”开始,agent没有得到任何反馈,并被要求不停地工作,并以一个“完全透明阶段”结束,agent一旦达到性能阈值就停止工作。隐藏信息会导致更大的努力,但激励一个无知的代理也更昂贵。在两阶段的解决方案中,智能体的无知完全是前置的,它源于“反向复合效应”,随着时间的推移,隐藏信息的成本会增加。
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引用次数: 0
Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses 脉冲响应的均匀先验
IF 6.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.3982/ECTA21101
Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, Daniel F. Waggoner

There has been a call for caution regarding the standard procedure for Bayesian inference in set-identified structural vector autoregressions on the grounds that the common practice of using a uniform prior over the set of orthogonal matrices induces a non-uniform prior for individual impulse responses or other quantities of interest. This paper challenges this call by formally showing that when the focus is on joint inference, the uniform prior over the set of orthogonal matrices is not only sufficient but also necessary for inference based on a uniform joint prior distribution over the identified set for the vector of impulse responses. In addition, we show how to conduct inference based on a uniform joint prior distribution for the vector of impulse responses.

对于集识别结构向量自回归中贝叶斯推理的标准程序,有人提出了谨慎的要求,理由是在正交矩阵集合上使用均匀先验的常见做法会导致单个脉冲响应或其他感兴趣的量的非均匀先验。本文挑战了这一呼吁,正式地表明,当重点是联合推理时,正交矩阵集合上的一致先验不仅是充分的,而且是必要的,这是基于脉冲响应向量识别集上的一致联合先验分布的推理。此外,我们还展示了如何基于脉冲响应向量的均匀联合先验分布进行推理。
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Econometrica
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