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Sea surface temperature and marine heatwave variability in interconnected basins: The Black-Marmara-Aegean Seas 海表温度和海洋热浪变化在相互联系的盆地:黑-马尔马拉-爱琴海
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101555
Şehriban Saçu , Olgay Şen , Tarkan Erdik , İzzet Öztürk
Sea surface temperature (SST) is a crucial parameter affecting marine ecosystems and has risen dramatically in recent decades due to climate change. This warming has led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of marine heatwave (MHW) events, prolonged periods of extreme SSTs, which have severe ecological consequences. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variability of SST and MHW characteristics across the interconnected Black, Marmara, and Aegean Seas using satellite-derived daily SST data from 1982 to 2021. Our findings indicate a significant SST increase across all three basins, with the most pronounced warming observed in the Black Sea, followed by the Marmara Sea. SST trends reach 0.8 °C/decade in the eastern Black Sea and 0.3 °C/decade in the Aegean Sea. Since the 2000s, SST warming has accelerated, with the long-term spatial mean trend of 0.57 °C/decade increasing to 0.68 °C/decade. This warming trend has driven a sharp increase in MHW frequency and duration, particularly in the last decade. The highest trend in MHW frequency is observed in the Marmara Sea, with an increase of 1.56 events/decade which further intensified after the 2000s. Beyond long-term trends, MHWs exhibit interannual variability, which correlates with the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) climate indices. Given the rising frequency and duration of MHW events, we also examined mucilage outbreaks in the Marmara Sea during 2007 and 2021. Our analysis suggests that mucilage blooms correspond to years with intense and prolonged MHW events, highlighting MHWs as a potential driver of mucilage formation.
海表温度(SST)是影响海洋生态系统的重要参数,近几十年来,由于气候变化,海表温度急剧上升。这种变暖导致海洋热浪(MHW)事件的频率和强度增加,极端海温的持续时间延长,这具有严重的生态后果。利用1982 - 2021年的卫星海温日资料,研究了连通的黑海、马尔马拉海和爱琴海的海温和海温的时空变化特征。我们的研究结果表明,所有三个盆地的海温都显著增加,其中黑海的变暖最为明显,其次是马尔马拉海。海温趋势在黑海东部达到0.8 °C/ 10年,在爱琴海达到0.3 °C/ 10年。2000年代以来,海温升温加速,长期空间平均趋势由0.57 °C/ 10年增加到0.68 °C/ 10年。这种变暖趋势推动了MHW频率和持续时间的急剧增加,特别是在过去十年中。马尔马拉海的海温频率变化趋势最大,增加了1.56次/ 10年,2000年代以后进一步加剧。除了长期趋势外,强强风还表现出年际变化,这与东大西洋(EA)和东大西洋/俄罗斯西部(EAWR)气候指数相关。鉴于MHW事件的频率和持续时间不断增加,我们还研究了2007年和2021年马尔马拉海的粘液暴发。我们的分析表明,黏液的大量繁殖与MHW事件强烈和持续的年份相对应,强调MHW是黏液形成的潜在驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Radiation partitioning in a cloud-rich tropical mountain rain forest of the S-Ecuadorian Andes for use in plot-based land surface modelling 南厄瓜多尔安第斯山脉云量丰富的热带山地雨林的辐射分区,用于基于地块的地表模拟
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101553
P. Grigusova , O. Limberger , C. Murkute , F. Pucha , V.H. González-Jaramillo , A. Fries , D. Windhorst , L. Breuer , M. Dantas de Paula , T. Hickler , K. Trachte , J. Bendix
Understanding the partitioning of downward shortwave radiation into direct and diffuse components is essential for modeling ecosystem energy fluxes. Accurate partitioning functions are critical for land surface models (LSMs) coupled with climate models, yet these functions often depend on regional cloud and aerosol conditions. While data for developing semi-empirical partitioning functions are abundant in mid-latitudes, their performance in tropical regions, particularly in the high Andes, remains poorly understood due to scarce ground-based measurements. This study analyzed a unique dataset of shortwave radiation components from a tropical mountain rainforest (MRF) in southern Ecuador, developing and testing a locally adapted partitioning function using Random Forest Regression. The model achieved high accuracy in predicting the percentage of diffuse radiation (%Dif; R2=0.95, RMSE = 5.33, MAE = 3.74) and absolute diffuse radiation (R2=0.99, RMSE = 5.30, MAE = 14). When applied to simulate upward shortwave radiation, the model outperformed commonly used partitioning functions achieving the lowest RMSE (8.62) and MAE (5.82) while matching the highest R2 (0.97). These results underscore the importance of regionally adapted radiation partitioning functions for improving LSM performance, particularly in complex tropical environments. The adapted LSM will be further utilized for studies on heat fluxes and carbon sequestration.
理解向下的短波辐射分为直接和漫射分量对模拟生态系统能量通量至关重要。准确的划分函数对于与气候模式相结合的陆地表面模式(lsm)至关重要,然而这些函数往往取决于区域云和气溶胶条件。虽然开发半经验分配函数的数据在中纬度地区丰富,但由于缺乏地面测量,它们在热带地区,特别是安第斯山脉高地区的表现仍然知之甚少。本研究分析了来自厄瓜多尔南部热带山地雨林(MRF)的独特短波辐射成分数据集,利用随机森林回归开发并测试了一个局部适应的分区函数。该模型在预测漫射辐射百分比(%Dif;R2=0.95, RMSE = 5.33, MAE = 3.74)和绝对漫射(R2=0.99, RMSE = 5.30, MAE = 14)。当应用该模型模拟向上短波辐射时,该模型优于常用的划分函数,达到最低RMSE(8.62)和MAE(5.82),并匹配最高R2(0.97)。这些结果强调了区域适应辐射分配函数对于改善LSM性能的重要性,特别是在复杂的热带环境中。改进后的LSM将进一步用于热通量和碳固存的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Interannual variations of mixed layer temperature and salinity in the South Indian Ocean salinity maxima region 南印度洋盐度最大值区混合层温度和盐度的年际变化
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101547
Madhu Kaundal , Mihir K. Dash , Jithendra Raju Nadimpalli
The study explores mixed layer temperature (MLT) and salinity (MLS) variability in the salinity maxima region present in the South Indian Ocean (SIO) on interannual time scale using ECCOv4r4 and Argo observations. It is observed that MLT and MLS are in tandem with surface heat flux and evaporation changes during the austral summer and winter seasons. Although the monthly evolution of high salinity in the SIO shows that the high salinity core is primarily located near 30° S, with notable seasonal variability south of 30° S. The region exhibits high interannual variability in MLT compared to MLS. Covariance and budget analysis show that net heat flux is the primary and significant component that contributes to the mixed-layer heat budget. However, changes in MLS are mainly attributed to meridional advection and entrainment. Furthermore, MLT variability is separated into two phases (I) 19922006, where the temperature is mostly below climatological value and (II) after 2007, the temperature is seen increasing with a hiatus-like signature from 20102015. During phase I, the MLT tendency is driven by meridional advection followed by net heat flux. However, in phase II, net heat flux mainly drives the temperature tendency, and meridional advection plays a secondary role. Whereas, salinity tendency is mainly driven by meridional advection. Further, in 19922006 period, downward Ekman pumping results from the strengthening of wind stress curl, led to the deepening of the mixed layer, while after 2006 MLD shoals due to weakening of wind stress curl. Additionally, during the second phase, the reduced meridional velocities in the mixed layer contribute to warming and salinification in the region.
利用ECCOv4r4和Argo观测资料,探讨了南印度洋(SIO)盐度最大值区混合层温度(MLT)和盐度(MLS)的年际时间尺度变化。在南方夏冬季节,MLT和MLS与地表热通量和蒸发变化呈串联关系。尽管SIO高盐度的月变化表明高盐度核心主要位于30°S附近,但在30°S以南有显著的季节变化,该区域的MLT年际变化比MLS高。协方差分析和收支分析表明,净热通量是影响混合层热收支的主要因素。然而,MLS的变化主要归因于经向平流和夹带。此外,MLT变率分为两个阶段(I) 1992—2006年,温度大多低于气候值;(II) 2007年以后,温度呈上升趋势,2010—2015年呈断续特征。在第1阶段,MLT趋势由经向平流驱动,然后是净热通量。而在第二阶段,净热通量主要驱动温度趋势,经向平流起次要作用。而盐度趋势主要由经向平流驱动。1992 ~ 2006年期间,由于风应力旋度的增强,向下的Ekman泵送导致混合层加深,而2006年以后,由于风应力旋度的减弱,MLD变浅。此外,在第二阶段,混合层经向速度的减少对该地区的增温和盐渍化有促进作用。
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引用次数: 0
Composite analysis of the rainfall distribution caused by strong and weak landfalling tropical cyclones over the China Mainland 强、弱登陆热带气旋对中国大陆降水分布的综合分析
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101551
YAN Ling , ZHOU Yushu , WANG Shengzhen , WANG Mingming
Tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall in China from 2008 to 2016 were grouped into three clusters based on landfall location and movement. The first two clusters made landfall in Southeast China (SEC), moving either northward or westward/northwestward, while the third cluster made landfall in Southern China (SC) and moved westward or northwestward. A statistical analysis examined differences in precipitation distribution and influencing factors. This analysis utilized data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) tropical cyclone database, ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique) precipitation data, derived from both station observations and satellite retrievals. The findings reveal significant differences between strong (more intense than a tropical storm) and weak (less intense than a tropical storm) TCs in different clusters. Strong TCs in first cluster (SEC-strong) cause heavy rainfall areas to shift farther north, particularly in Jiangsu Province, with extreme rainfall occurring in the inner rainbands in a relatively symmetrical pattern. Conversely, rainfall from SEC-weak TCs is markedly asymmetric, concentrated in the inner regions and predominantly to the south of the middle rainbands. For SC-weak TCs, intense precipitation is primarily located in the southwest quadrant. Meanwhile, SC-strong TCs display a broader area of heavy rainfall, with coverage extending further west compared to SC-weak. A dynamic composite analysis of the primary weather systems influencing rainfall distribution before and after landfall was performed for SEC-strong, SEC-weak, SC-strong, and SC-weak TCs. This analysis highlighted significant differences in the positioning of the South Asian High (SAH), the intensity of vertical wind shear (VWS), and the characteristics of moisture convergence zones. Specifically, SEC-strong TCs exhibit a more robust water vapor transport channel, with easterly winds delivering moisture to the northern side of the TC center, compared to SEC-weak. Differences are also evident in their vertical structures, including variations in warm-core intensity, radial vertical motion, the asymmetric distribution of convergence and divergence fields, and instability conditions. Similarly, SC-strong and SC-weak TCs differ in the positioning of the 500 hPa subtropical high and the distribution of integrated atmospheric precipitable water (PW).
根据登陆位置和移动方向,将2008年至2016年在中国登陆的热带气旋(tc)分为三组。前两个集群在中国东南部(SEC)登陆,向北或向西/西北移动,而第三个集群在中国南方(SC)登陆,向西或西北移动。统计分析了降水分布和影响因素的差异。该分析利用了中国气象局(CMA)热带气旋数据库、ECMWF ERA-Interim再分析数据和CMORPH(气候预测中心变形技术)降水数据,这些数据来自气象站观测和卫星检索。研究结果揭示了不同集群中强(比热带风暴更强烈)和弱(比热带风暴更弱)tc之间的显著差异。第一簇强tc (SEC-strong)导致强雨区向北移动,特别是在江苏省,极端降雨以相对对称的模式发生在雨带内部。相反,来自sec -弱tc的降雨明显不对称,集中在内部区域,主要集中在中间雨带的南部。对于sc -弱tc,强降水主要位于西南象限。与此同时,sc -强tc的强降雨范围更广,覆盖范围比sc -弱tc向西延伸更远。对强sec、弱sec、强sc和弱sc台风登陆前后影响降雨分布的主要天气系统进行了动态综合分析。南亚高压(SAH)的位置、垂直风切变(VWS)的强度以及水汽辐合带的特征都存在显著差异。具体来说,与弱sec相比,强sec的TC表现出更强大的水汽输送通道,东风将水汽输送到TC中心的北侧。它们在垂直结构上的差异也很明显,包括暖核强度的变化、径向垂直运动、辐合场和发散场的不对称分布以及不稳定条件。同样,sc强tc和sc弱tc在500 hPa副热带高压的位置和大气综合可降水量(PW)的分布上也存在差异。
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引用次数: 0
Evolution of the vertically tilted structure of MJO during its eastward propagation MJO东移过程中垂直倾斜结构的演化
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101550
Feng Hu , Chi Xu , Qiao Liu , Jianhui Xu
The existence and evolution of MJO vertically tilted structure (VTS) across its eastward propagation have been validated through the diagnosis of observational data during 1979–2022 boreal winter. A total of 53 eastward-propagating MJO events, comprising 215 pentads, were selected based on cluster diagnosis. By comparing the range of ascending motion between the upper and lower layers in the rear of MJO convective centers, it has been demonstrated that the VTS exists only on the intraseasonal time scale and is not presented in the high-frequency or low-frequency fields. 70 % of MJO pentads are occupied with VTS. The proportion and intensity of VTS vary as the MJO propagates eastward from 60°E to 180°, both exhibiting a bimodal distribution. In most basins, MJO with VTS is a prominent feature, except where MJO convection is just forming (60°-70°E) or about to dissipate (170°E to 180°), in which the proportion of VTS is lower than that of no-VTS. The intensity of VTS follows a similar evolutionary pattern, being strongest in the Western Pacific and weakest in the western Indian Ocean and central Pacific. There is positive (negative) relationship between phase speed and intensity of VTS (proportion of no-VTS), the correlation coefficient of which is 0.59 (-0.66), all exceeding the 99 % significant level. The evolution of VTS would be regulated by the low-frequency background. The precipitation has a prominently positive (negative) impact on the intensity of VTS (no-VTS proportions). The vertical wind shear and upper-layer zonal velocity have a significantly negative (positive) effect on the intensity of VTS (no-VTS proportions).
通过对1979-2022年北方冬季观测资料的诊断,验证了MJO垂直倾斜结构(VTS)在其东传播过程中的存在和演变。基于聚类诊断,选取了53个向东传播的MJO事件,共215个候。通过对MJO对流中心后方高层和低层上升运动范围的比较,证明了VTS仅存在于季节内时间尺度上,而不存在于高频和低频场。70% %的MJO pentad被VTS占用。VTS的比例和强度随MJO从60°E向东传播至180°E而变化,均呈现双峰分布。除了MJO对流刚刚形成(60°~ 70°E)或即将消散(170°E ~ 180°E)的区域外,在大多数盆地中,有VTS的MJO是一个突出的特征,在这些区域中,VTS的比例低于无VTS。VTS的强度遵循类似的演化模式,在西太平洋最强,在西印度洋和太平洋中部最弱。相速度与VTS强度(无VTS比例)呈正(负)相关,相关系数为0.59(-0.66),均超过99 %的显著水平。VTS的演化将受到低频背景的调控。降水对VTS强度(无VTS比例)有显著的正(负)影响。垂直风切变和高空纬向速度对VTS强度(无VTS比例)有显著的负(正)作用。
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引用次数: 0
Sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for advancing beyond the summer predictability barrier of Indian Ocean Dipole 热带印度洋的敏感区推进超越印度洋偶极子夏季可预测性障碍
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101552
Rong Feng , Wansuo Duan
Using the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory climate model version 2p1 (GFDL CM2p1), perfect model predictability experiments have been conducted to identify the sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for advancing beyond the summer predictability barrier (SPB) of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. In these experiments, the model is assumed to be perfect, and prediction errors are only caused by initial errors. Initially, the impact of initial error patterns on prediction uncertainties was assessed by comparing dipole pattern initial errors with three sets of spatially correlated noises. The results revealed that dipole pattern initial errors tend to result in larger prediction errors and higher error growth rates in summer, leading to a significant SPB phenomenon. Notably, the large values of these dipole pattern initial errors are concentrated in specific areas. By eliminating initial errors within these areas, the prediction errors in summer are largely reduced, underscoring the sensitivity of prediction uncertainties in summer to initial errors in these areas. Moreover, the prediction errors in summer exhibit a higher sensitivity to initial errors within the subsurface large value area compared to those within the surface large value area. Consequently, the subsurface large value area in the tropical Indian Ocean is the sensitive area for advancing beyond the SPB, aligning with the corresponding location for advancing beyond the WPB. Eliminating initial errors within this area leads to a rapid decrease in prediction uncertainties, with a more pronounced reduction in winter than in summer. Through intensive observations in this sensitive area, significant reductions in prediction errors in both summer and winter can be achieved, thereby greatly improve the forecast skill of IOD events.
利用地球物理流体动力学实验室气候模式版本2p1 (GFDL CM2p1),进行了完善的模式可预测性实验,以确定印度洋正偶极子(IOD)事件的夏季可预测性屏障(SPB)的敏感区。在这些实验中,假设模型是完美的,预测误差仅由初始误差引起。首先,通过比较偶极子模式初始误差与三组空间相关噪声,评估初始误差模式对预测不确定性的影响。结果表明,夏季偶极子模式初始误差往往导致较大的预测误差和较高的误差增长率,导致显著的SPB现象。值得注意的是,这些偶极子模式初始误差的大值集中在特定区域。通过消除这些区域内的初始误差,夏季的预测误差大大减小,凸显了这些区域夏季预测不确定性对初始误差的敏感性。夏季预报误差对地下大值区内的初始误差的敏感性高于地表大值区内的初始误差。因此,热带印度洋的地下大值区是推进超越SPB的敏感区域,与推进超越WPB的相应位置对齐。消除该区域内的初始误差可导致预测不确定性迅速降低,冬季的降低幅度比夏季更明显。通过对该敏感区域的密集观测,可以显著降低夏季和冬季的预测误差,从而大大提高IOD事件的预测技能。
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引用次数: 0
Seasonal and topographical dynamics of precipitable water vapor in Nepal: A GNSS-based assessment 尼泊尔可降水量的季节和地形动态:基于gnss的评估
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101548
Srijan Thapa , Riya Pokhrel , Bigyan Banjara , Bhijan Nyaupane , Aadarsha Dhakal
Precipitable water vapor (PWV), a key indicator of atmospheric moisture, plays a vital role in weather forecasting, climate studies, and understanding atmospheric thermodynamics. This study utilizes ground-based GNSS technology to estimate PWV and Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) across three distinct topographical regions of Nepal: Terai, Hilly, and Himalayan, over four seasons: winter, spring, summer, and autumn. The analysis reveals that the Terai region, characterized by lower elevations, consistently exhibits higher PWV and ZTD values compared to the high-altitude Himalayan region, with the Hilly region showing intermediate levels. Seasonal variations indicate the highest PWV and ZTD during the summer and the lowest during winter, reflecting the influence of monsoonal moisture. Diurnal variability analysis further shows significant fluctuations in PWV, with a minimum in the early morning (21:45–00:45 UTC) and at night (17:15–18:15 UTC) and a maximum during the warmest part of the day (6:15–9:15 UTC). These findings underscore the effectiveness of GNSS technology in monitoring atmospheric water vapor and highlight the significant impact of topography and seasonal cycles on PWV distribution in Nepal. Such research and insights are crucial for improving weather forecasting, advancing climate change research, and enhancing atmospheric monitoring in regions with diverse topographical features.
可降水量(PWV)是表征大气湿度的重要指标,在天气预报、气候研究和大气热力学研究中起着至关重要的作用。本研究利用地面GNSS技术估算尼泊尔三个不同地形区域(Terai,丘陵和喜马拉雅)的PWV和天顶对流层延迟(ZTD),四季:冬、春、夏、秋。结果表明,与高海拔喜马拉雅地区相比,海拔较低的Terai地区始终具有较高的PWV和ZTD值,而丘陵地区则处于中等水平。夏季PWV和ZTD最高,冬季最低,反映了季风水汽的影响。日变率分析进一步显示PWV的显著波动,最小值出现在清晨(21:45-00:45 UTC)和夜间(17:15-18:15 UTC),最大值出现在一天中最温暖的部分(6:15-9:15 UTC)。这些发现强调了GNSS技术在监测大气水汽方面的有效性,并强调了地形和季节周期对尼泊尔PWV分布的重要影响。这些研究和见解对于改善天气预报、推进气候变化研究和加强不同地形特征地区的大气监测至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Trends and drivers of tropical cyclones originating in the South China Sea during 1949–2021 1949-2021年源自南海的热带气旋的趋势和驱动因素
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101546
Zhi Li , Zecheng Xu , Yue Fang
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme meteorological phenomena, characterized by intense winds and torrential rainfall, which pose severe risks to coastal inhabitants and infrastructure. In the South China Sea (SCS), TCs predominantly form during the main season from May to October. A comprehensive analysis of TC genesis within the SCS during May–September from 1949 to 2021 reveals a significant upward trend in TC frequency. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms driving this trend, we conducted diagnostic analyses of the Genesis Potential Index (GPI) and examined variations in relative humidity (RH) and specific humidity (SH). Our results demonstrate that anomalously elevated mid-level RH is the primary driver of the increasing frequency of locally generated SCS TCs, with this rise in RH attributed to changes in SH primarily influenced by vertical advection processes. These advection processes are largely facilitated by Ekman pumping, driven by the warming of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the SCS. This study establishes a robust linkage between the increasing TC frequency and the warming SST trend in the SCS, underscoring the profound influence of regional climate change on TC activity in the region.
热带气旋是一种以强风和暴雨为特征的极端气象现象,对沿海居民和基础设施构成严重威胁。在南中国海(SCS), TCs主要形成于5 - 10月的主要季节。对1949 - 2021年5 - 9月南海内TC发生的综合分析表明,TC频率呈显著上升趋势。为了阐明驱动这一趋势的潜在机制,我们对成因潜力指数(GPI)进行了诊断分析,并研究了相对湿度(RH)和比湿度(SH)的变化。我们的研究结果表明,异常升高的中层RH是局部生成的SCS tc频率增加的主要驱动因素,而RH的上升主要归因于垂直平流过程影响的SH变化。这些平流过程在很大程度上是由南海海表温度(SST)变暖驱动的Ekman泵送促进的。本研究建立了南海TC频率增加与海温变暖趋势之间的强大联系,强调了区域气候变化对区域TC活动的深刻影响。
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引用次数: 0
Improvement of finescale parameterization through reducing uncertainty in spectrum estimation 通过减少频谱估计中的不确定性来改进精细尺度参数化
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101545
Shumin Jiang , Dejun Dai , Dingqi Wang , Jia Deng , Jia Sun , Ying Li , Jingsong Guo , Fangli Qiao
Finescale parameterization (FP) is employed widely to estimate the large-scale distribution of internal wave-induced mixing, which is crucially important for the development of ocean general circulation models. In this study, FP performance was evaluated using hydrographic and microstructure measurements extracted from the Microstructure Program dataset. A general tendency of overestimation with increase in the estimated internal wave energy level was observed. Using the Monte Carlo method, the turbulent dissipation rates under prescribed spectra were estimated to illustrate how uncertainty in spectrum estimation contributes to the bias. The overestimation tendency was replicated under the FP by the commonly used periodogram spectral method. By replacing the periodogram method with an autoregressive (AR) spectral estimator, the overestimation tendency was reduced considerably. Application of FP with the AR method to the collected hydrographic data greatly reduced the bias, with the root mean square error reducing from 0.72 to 0.46, the variance of the bias decreasing from 0.57 to 0.23, and the correlation of the bias with the internal wave energy level reducing from 0.62 to 0.32, in base-10 logarithmic coordinates. Application of FP with the AR spectrum estimator would help in estimating diapycnal mixing within the ocean interior more accurately and increase the robustness of FP.
细尺度参数化(FP)被广泛用于估算内波混合的大尺度分布,这对海洋环流模式的发展至关重要。在这项研究中,利用从微结构程序数据集中提取的水文和微结构测量数据来评估FP的性能。随着估计的内波能级的增加,总体上有高估的趋势。利用蒙特卡罗方法估计了规定谱下的湍流耗散率,以说明谱估计中的不确定性对偏差的影响。用常用的周期图谱法再现了FP下的高估趋势。用自回归(AR)谱估计器代替周期图方法,大大降低了高估的倾向。将FP与AR方法应用于采集的水文资料,在基底10对数坐标下,偏差的均方根误差从0.72减小到0.46,偏差方差从0.57减小到0.23,偏差与内波能级的相关性从0.62减小到0.32。将FP与AR谱估计器结合使用,有助于更准确地估计海洋内部的潜周期混合,并提高FP的鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying climate change-driven variations in projected wind condition in the Gulf of Guinea 量化几内亚湾预计风况中气候变化驱动的变化
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101543
Adeola M. Dahunsi , Frederic Bonou , Olusegun A. Dada , Ezinvi Baloïtcha
Understanding wind climate dynamics in the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) is critical for addressing climate-related challenges and supporting sustainable development in the region. This study evaluates the wind climate using observational buoy data from the PIRATA network and multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) under historical and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenarios. An ensemble dataset, constructed as the average of GCM outputs, was validated against PIRATA buoy measurements and demonstrated better performance to individual GCMs. The study revealed distinct temporal and spatial variability in wind conditions across the dry and rainy seasons during the baseline period (1961–2014). Projections under RCP 8.5 for mid-century (2026–2060) and end-century (2066–2100) consistently indicate increasing wind speeds, with the most significant changes projected during the rainy season. These findings highlight the critical role of ensemble modelling in mitigating biases inherent in individual datasets and its contribution to a robust understanding of wind dynamics in the region. The observed trends have significant implications for coastal upwelling, maritime safety, renewable energy development, and climate resilience strategies in the GoG. This study highlights the necessity of fine-scale spatio-temporal modelling to improve predictions and guide evidence-based adaptive strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems and vulnerable communities.
了解几内亚湾(GoG)的风气候动态对于应对气候相关挑战和支持该地区的可持续发展至关重要。本研究利用PIRATA网络观测浮标资料和多个大气环流模式(GCMs)在历史和未来代表性浓度路径(RCP 8.5)情景下对风气候进行了评估。作为GCM输出平均值构建的集成数据集,与PIRATA浮标测量结果进行了验证,并证明了单个GCM的更好性能。该研究揭示了基线期(1961-2014年)旱季和雨季风况的明显时空变化。在RCP 8.5下对本世纪中叶(2026-2060年)和世纪末(2066-2100年)的预估一致表明风速增加,其中在雨季预估的变化最为显著。这些发现强调了集合建模在减轻单个数据集固有偏差方面的关键作用,以及它对该地区风动力学的有力理解的贡献。观测到的趋势对沿海上升流、海上安全、可再生能源开发和GoG的气候适应战略具有重要意义。本研究强调了精细尺度时空建模的必要性,以改进预测和指导基于证据的适应策略,以减轻气候变化对沿海生态系统和脆弱社区的影响。
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Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans
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