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Sensitivity of WRF tropical cyclone simulations in the Philippines to different SST data 菲律宾WRF热带气旋模拟对不同海温资料的敏感性
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101578
Juan Paolo P. Pamintuan , Gerry Bagtasa
Improving the accuracy of tropical cyclone (TC) simulations in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, has been an increasingly important endeavor. Sea-air moisture and energy fluxes are mainly driven by sea surface temperature (SST) and the mixed layer underneath, which have significant effects on the formation and intensification of TCs. We investigated the sensitivity of three Philippine TCs - Typhoons Mangkhut, Goni, and Rai - to different SST datasets and a 1-D ocean mixed layer (OML) model in WRF. We found that the WRF runs with the high-resolution SST data update showed improvements in modeled maximum wind speed and consequently improved the simulated tracks over the archipelagic and/or coastal waters of the Philippines, as it gave better confidence in the (intensity-based) tracking algorithm after TCs made landfall in the country. TC-associated rainfall was also found to be sensitive to SST-updated model runs. Our results show that the use of SST significantly reduces the dry bias of WRF-simulated TC rainfall. The use of the high-resolution GHRSST dataset yielded the best TC simulation results over other SST data by simulating the sensible and latent heat or moisture fluxes over land and sea along coastlines better across the inland archipelagic waters of the Philippines. Disasters due to TCs are often brought about by strong winds and heavy rains over land. Considering that virtually no added computational cost is incurred in including SST update in the WRF model, the use of SST in TC modeling is an efficient method to improve TC hazard simulations.
提高数值天气预报(NWP)模式(如天气研究与预报(WRF)模式)中热带气旋(TC)模拟的准确性已成为一项日益重要的工作。海气水汽和能量通量主要受海温及其下混合层驱动,对TCs的形成和增强有重要影响。研究了菲律宾台风“山竹”、“戈尼”和“雷”对不同海温数据集和WRF一维海洋混合层(OML)模式的敏感性。我们发现,使用高分辨率海温数据更新的WRF运行显示出模拟最大风速的改进,从而改善了菲律宾群岛和/或沿海水域的模拟路径,因为它在台风登陆该国后对(基于强度的)跟踪算法提供了更好的信心。与tc相关的降雨也被发现对海温更新的模型运行很敏感。结果表明,海温的使用显著降低了wrf模拟的TC降雨的干偏。使用高分辨率GHRSST数据集,通过更好地模拟菲律宾内陆群岛水域沿海陆地和海洋的感热通量和潜热通量或水分通量,获得了比其他海温数据更好的TC模拟结果。台风引起的灾害通常是由陆地上的强风和暴雨引起的。考虑到在WRF模型中加入海表温度更新几乎不会增加计算成本,因此在TC建模中使用海表温度是改进TC危害模拟的有效方法。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of climate characteristics on the Tibetan Plateau based on mathematical statistics and vegetation response research 基于数理统计和植被响应研究的青藏高原气候特征分析
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101576
Yida Liu , Xiaoyan Zhao
The Tibetan Plateau(TP)’s profound influence on East Asian atmospheric circulation and its indicative role in shaping global climate patterns have garnered widespread scientific interest. This study employs the statistical method of Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis to conduct an objective climate regionalization of the TP. The plateau is subdivided into five regions, and a detailed analysis is conducted on the 73-year trends of precipitation, temperature, ground temperature, evaporation, and wind speed in each of the five subregions. The study reveals that, since the start of observations, precipitation in the northern TP has undergone a transition from high to low, followed by a gradual increase. In contrast, precipitation in the southern TP has shown a slight decrease in recent years. Both air temperature and ground temperature across the TP exhibit an overall oscillatory warming trend. Meanwhile, evaporation has decreased, and wind speed has declined across the entire plateau. The combined effects of precipitation, temperature, evaporation, and wind speed have led to a pronounced warming and wetting trend in the northern TP, while the southern region exhibits a warming and drying trend. This is closely related to the complex mechanisms driven by the interplay of westerlies and monsoons over the TP. Since 2003, changes in the vegetation index on the plateau have shown a strong positive correlation with precipitation, indicating that precipitation is one of the key factors influencing vegetation on the TP.
青藏高原(TP)对东亚大气环流的深远影响及其在塑造全球气候模式中的指示作用已经引起了广泛的科学兴趣。本研究采用旋转经验正交函数(REOF)分析的统计方法对青藏高原进行了客观的气候区划。将青藏高原划分为5个区域,详细分析了各区域73年降水、气温、地温、蒸发量和风速的变化趋势。研究表明,自观测以来,青藏高原北部降水经历了由高到低的过渡,然后逐渐增加。相反,南部青藏高原降水近年来略有减少。青藏高原的气温和地温总体上呈现振荡增温趋势。与此同时,整个高原的蒸发量减少,风速下降。降水、温度、蒸发和风速的综合作用导致青藏高原北部呈现明显的增湿趋势,而南部则呈现增干趋势。这与西风带和季风在青藏高原上的相互作用所驱动的复杂机制密切相关。2003年以来,青藏高原植被指数的变化与降水呈较强的正相关关系,表明降水是影响青藏高原植被的关键因素之一。
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引用次数: 0
Heatwave-induced thermoregulatory stress in Odisha's coastal and north-eastern districts: Examining the April 2024 event using advanced statistical and geospatial techniques 奥里萨邦沿海和东北部地区热浪引起的体温调节压力:使用先进的统计和地理空间技术检查2024年4月的事件
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101577
Roshan Beuria , Dipak Sahu , Sarat Chandra Sahu , Debabrata Nandi , Susmita Behera , Kamal Lochan Mohanta , Rakesh Ranjan Thakur
This work investigates the remarkable heatwave that struck Odisha in April 2024, with special emphasis on intensity and duration in the coastal and interior regions. It is of special concern if such patterns arise in coastal districts where comfortable weather is due to the proximity of the sea. There's been an uninterrupted recording of temperatures crossing 40°C for 16 consecutive days i.e., from the 15th to the 30th of April which includes some regions usually considered less vulnerable to extreme heat. The aim of this particular research is focused on synoptic features and focuses on drivers for the specific anomaly in northeastern and coastal districts. The study utilises the historical temperature dataset ranging from 1969 to 2024, applying the heat wave trends according to the IMD classification and 90th percentile threshold. The examination of synoptic features of atmospheric circulation along with vertical thermal structures is the main scope of this research. From data collection, it is observed that there is an exacerbating increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves alongside UHI effects, and they are linked with transitions of El Niño–La Niña. Along with this, stepping over vegetation and the increase in impervious surfaces also led to delayed sea breeze onset and higher heat retention in coastal zones. With the quantitative analysis that was supplemented by the UHI phenomenon, it was revealed that Thom's discomfort index also displayed significant discomfort to the inhabitants of the area during the heatwave, with values exceeding 28 in most locations, indicating severe discomfort levels. Unlike prior research in Odisha that primarily focused on long-term trends or socio-economic vulnerability, this study uniquely applies high-resolution WRF simulation, satellite reanalysis, and thermoregulatory indices to capture the April 2024 heatwave’s spatial variability, urban–coastal thermal interactions, and atmospheric drivers in an integrated and operationally relevant framework. These findings underscore the urgency of developing adaptive strategies such as urban planning reforms (e.g., greening and zoning), early warning systems tailored to heat thresholds, and region-specific public health interventions to protect vulnerable populations in Odisha and similar coastal environments.
这项工作调查了2024年4月袭击奥里萨邦的非凡热浪,特别强调了沿海和内陆地区的强度和持续时间。如果这种模式出现在沿海地区,这是特别值得关注的,因为那里的气候舒适是由于靠近大海。从4月15日到30日,气温连续16天超过40°C,其中包括一些通常被认为不太容易受到极端高温影响的地区。本文的研究重点是天气特征和东北和沿海地区特殊异常的驱动因素。该研究利用1969年至2024年的历史温度数据集,根据IMD分类和第90百分位阈值应用热浪趋势。研究大气环流和垂直热结构的天气特征是本研究的主要范围。从收集的数据可以观察到,伴随着热岛效应,热浪的频率和强度正在加剧增加,并且它们与El Niño-La Niña的转变有关。与此同时,跨越植被和不透水表面的增加也导致了海风的延迟发生和沿海地区更高的热量保留。通过对UHI现象的定量分析,揭示了Thom's不适指数在热浪期间对该地区居民也表现出明显的不适,大多数地区的数值超过28,表明严重的不适程度。与之前在奥里萨邦进行的主要关注长期趋势或社会经济脆弱性的研究不同,本研究独特地应用高分辨率WRF模拟、卫星再分析和温度调节指数,在一个综合的、与操作相关的框架中捕捉2024年4月热浪的空间变异性、城市-沿海热相互作用和大气驱动因素。这些发现强调了制定适应性战略的紧迫性,例如城市规划改革(例如绿化和分区)、针对热阈值量身定制的预警系统以及针对特定区域的公共卫生干预措施,以保护奥里萨邦和类似沿海环境的弱势群体。
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引用次数: 0
Analyzing the complexity of tropical cyclone landfall dynamics through the integration of radar data 利用雷达资料综合分析热带气旋登陆动力学的复杂性
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101575
Sankhasubhra Chakraborty , Nikita Goswami , Sandeep Pattnaik , B.A.M. Kannan
Tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Indian subcontinent often led to devastating impacts, especially during landfall. This study exclusively investigates the dynamical changes of the TCs during their landfall phases, covering pre-landfall (PrL), during-landfall (DL), and post-landfall (PoL) periods. Three landfalling TCs—Hudhud (2014), Titli (2018), and Fani (2019)—are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, incorporating Doppler Weather Radar reflectivity (Rf) data through two sets of experiments: CNTL (without Rf assimilation) and Rf_DA (with Rf assimilation). Rf_DA has minimal impact on the TC track; however, it significantly improves the intensity in terms of minimum central pressure (MCP, 43 % & 8 % reduced error) and maximum sustained surface wind (MSSW, 53 % & 15 % reduced error) for Hudhud and Fani, respectively, during the landfall process. The weakening phase is accurately captured, and structural changes in the DL phase are closely aligned with observations for Rf_DA. Realistic rainfall distribution and associated thermodynamic processes during DL and PoL are better replicated in Rf_DA compared to CNTL. The water budget analysis shows that lower-level moisture convergence (1000–700hPa) and upper-level (400–100hPa) advection are the dominant factors regulating DL and PoL rainfall characteristics of TCs. Furthermore, TC-associated rainfall is strongly influenced by frozen hydrometeors at the mid to upper-level (600–200hPa) and liquid hydrometeors at the lower-level (1000–700hPa) in the DL and PoL phases. In summary, incorporating Rf data considerably improved the key features of TCs—the structure, intensity, and rainfall patterns during the landfall phase. These findings have significant implications for improving early warning systems for TC landfall, especially in coastal areas with high population densities.
印度次大陆上空的热带气旋(TCs)经常造成毁灭性的影响,特别是在登陆时。本研究专门研究了热带气旋在登陆前(PrL)、登陆中(DL)和登陆后(PoL)阶段的动态变化。使用天气研究与预报模型模拟了三个着陆的TCs-Hudhud (2014), Titli(2018)和Fani(2019),通过两组实验:CNTL(无Rf同化)和Rf_DA(有Rf同化)结合多普勒天气雷达反射率(Rf)数据。Rf_DA对TC轨道的影响最小;然而,在最小中心压力方面,它显著提高了强度(MCP, 43 % &;8 %减少误差)和最大持续地面风(MSSW, 53 % &;在登陆过程中,Hudhud和Fani分别为15 %减少误差)。弱相被准确地捕获,弱相的结构变化与Rf_DA的观测结果密切一致。与CNTL相比,Rf_DA能更好地再现DL和PoL期间的实际降雨分布和相关热力学过程。水分收支分析表明,低层水汽辐合(1000 ~ 700hpa)和高层平流(400 ~ 100hpa)是影响tc DL和PoL降水特征的主导因子。此外,tc相关降雨在DL和PoL阶段受到中高层(600-200hPa)冻结水成物和低层(1000-700hPa)液态水成物的强烈影响。总之,纳入Rf数据大大改善了tc的关键特征——登陆阶段的结构、强度和降雨模式。这些发现对改善热带气旋登陆的早期预警系统具有重要意义,特别是在人口密度高的沿海地区。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of thunderstorm evolution using deep learning models with doppler weather radar observations over southern part of India 利用深度学习模式及多普勒天气雷达观测预测印度南部雷暴演变
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101565
Dharmadas Jash , Sumit Kumar , Arka Roy , E.A. Resmi , R.K. Sumesh , C.K. Unnikrishnan , Nita Sukumar
Thunderstorms are severe weather phenomena causing heavy rainfall and lightning that poses serious threat to agriculture, infrastructure and lives in general. Short scale nature of these events makes it difficult to predict them. In this study we have made an attempt at thunderstorm nowcasting using Deep Learning (DL) models with Doppler weather radar (DWR) data, for the first time over the Indian region. This study utilizes data from a C-band DWR installed at Space Physics Laboratory (8.52 N, 76.89E), Thiruvananthapuram (southern tip of India). DL models incorporating Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) architecture have been developed to predict evolution of pre-monsoon (Mar-May) thunderstorms over southern peninsular India. MAXZ (maximum reflectivity along the vertical) reflectivity data of thunderstorm events during pre-monsoons of 2018–2024 have been used for training and testing of the DL models. Total 4 models have been trained. For 15 & 30 minutes ahead predictions, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for the test samples are about 0.8 dB and 1.2 dB respectively. Our DL models are capable of predicting the main convective areas (Z > 40 dBZ) for both 15 and 30 minutes ahead predictions better than some earlier studies. Evolution of the thunderstorm on 13-May-2018 has been studied in detail. Movement of the system has been tracked by following the center of the largest cluster of high reflectivity (Z > 40 dBZ) values. All the four models were able to capture the overall spatial patterns of the reflectivity field well. For 15 minutes ahead predictions, the models predict the movement of the center reasonably well. The scatter plot between the direction of true movement & predicted movement of the center are well correlated. The study demonstrates the ability of the deep learning models in predicting the evolution of thunderstorms over Indian region.
雷暴是造成暴雨和闪电的恶劣天气现象,对农业、基础设施和一般生活构成严重威胁。这些事件的短尺度性质使其难以预测。在这项研究中,我们首次尝试在印度地区使用深度学习(DL)模型和多普勒天气雷达(DWR)数据进行雷暴临近预报。本研究利用安装在印度南部Thiruvananthapuram空间物理实验室(8.52 N, 76.89E)的c波段DWR的数据。结合生成对抗网络(GAN)架构的深度学习模型已被开发用于预测印度半岛南部季风前(3 - 5月)雷暴的演变。利用2018-2024年季风前雷暴事件的MAXZ(沿垂直方向最大反射率)反射率数据对DL模式进行了训练和测试。总共训练了4个模型。对于15 &;提前30 分钟预测,测试样本的平均绝对误差(MAE)分别约为0.8 dB和1.2 dB。我们的DL模型能够提前15和30 分钟预测主要对流区域(Z >; 40 dBZ),比一些早期的研究预测得更好。详细研究了2018年5月13日雷暴的演变过程。通过跟踪最大的高反射率簇的中心(Z >; 40 dBZ)值来跟踪系统的运动。四种模型均能较好地捕捉反射率场的整体空间格局。对于提前15 分钟的预测,这些模型相当好地预测了中心的运动。真实运动方向之间的散点图&;预测的中心运动是很相关的。该研究证明了深度学习模型在预测印度地区雷暴演变中的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of the Bay of Bengal cyclones during 2001–20 and impact of scatterometer winds through composite analysis 2001 - 1990年孟加拉湾气旋的动力热力特征及散射计风的影响
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101564
Ipshita Bhasi , Jagabandhu Panda , Subodh Kumar , Debashis Paul , Ashish Routray
This study comprehensively investigates the dynamic, and thermodynamic characteristics associated with pre-monsoon and post-monsoon tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Bay of Bengal during 2001–20. For this purpose, numerical simulations using Weather Research and Forecasting model (called CTRL) and the outputs with assimilation through three-dimensional variational data assimilation techniques (called DA) are used. The DA experiments considered modified initial conditions that are generated by employing assimilated scatterometer winds. Accordingly, a total of 74 model simulations are carried out for 37 TCs categorized as Cyclonic Storm (CS), Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS), and Highly Intensified Cyclonic Storm (HICS), for preparing the composites. Composite analysis involving different category TCs is performed, where the simulated results are compared against India Meteorological Department observations and the Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA). The comparison provides an insight regarding the model performance, where DA demonstrates improved estimation of maximum sustained wind, minimum sea level pressure and cyclone track. The seasonal variations of the dynamic characteristics consisting of vertical wind shear, vorticity, and tangential and radial winds are found to strengthen along with TC intensity. Also, an increase in the rate of convergence supported by well-defined wind fields is realized at the TC center. In most instances, both experiments demonstrate similar trends, but DA exhibits improvement in the estimations, specifically for SCS and HICS categories. However, a limited impact of scatterometer wind data assimilation is realized on the dynamic behavior of CS category TCs. The impact is also found to be limited on the thermodynamic properties of all three categories, although the seasonal variation reveals a consistent increasing trend of temperature anomalies with TC intensity, indicating an association with the intensification process.
本文研究了2001 - 2010年孟加拉湾季风前和季风后热带气旋(TCs)的动力学和热力学特征。为此,使用天气研究与预报模式(CTRL)的数值模拟和通过三维变分数据同化技术(DA)同化的输出。数据同化试验考虑了利用同化散射计风产生的修正初始条件。因此,为了制备复合材料,共对37种不同类型的气旋风暴(CS)、强气旋风暴(SCS)和高度强化气旋风暴(HICS)进行了74次模式模拟。将模拟结果与印度气象部门的观测和印度季风资料同化与分析(IMDAA)进行了比较,并对不同类型的TCs进行了综合分析。比较提供了关于模式性能的见解,其中DA显示了对最大持续风,最小海平面压力和气旋路径的改进估计。垂直风切变、涡度、切向风和径向风的动力特征随TC强度的增加而增强。此外,在明确的风场支持下,辐合速度也有所提高。在大多数情况下,两个实验都显示出类似的趋势,但数据分析在估计方面表现出改进,特别是对SCS和HICS类别。然而,散射计风资料同化对CS类TCs的动力特性影响有限。尽管季节变化显示温度异常随TC强度的增加呈一致的增加趋势,表明温度异常与TC强度的增强过程有关,但对所有三类的热力学性质的影响也有限。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating weather trends and forecasting with machine learning: Insights from maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall data in India 用机器学习评估天气趋势和预测:来自印度最高温度、最低温度和降雨数据的见解
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101562
Guhan V , A. Dharma Raju , Rama Krishna , K. Nagaratna
This research presents a comprehensive evaluation of meteorological trends using a combination of statistical and machine learning approaches, focusing on rainfall, minimum temperature (MinT), and maximum temperature (MaxT). The Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator identified statistically significant upward trends in both MaxT (slope = 0.0154, p = 9.42E-06) and MinT (slope = 0.0190, p = 4.73E-07), indicating a consistent warming climate. Rainfall displayed a positive trend but was not statistically significant (p = 0.9516, slope = 4.07E-05), suggesting random variability rather than a sustained increase.Machine learning models were leveraged to enhance forecasting accuracy for these meteorological parameters. ARIMA exhibited the highest precision for MaxT and Rainfall (MAE = 3.0080, 0.1728; RMSE = 3.4967, 0.2916), while XGBoost demonstrated superior performance for MinT (MAE = 2.7726, RMSE = 3.8555). These findings highlight the critical need for climate adaptation measures, as rising temperatures could intensify heatwaves, escalate energy demands, and affect agricultural productivity.The study underscores the importance of integrating advanced forecasting techniques to support proactive climate resilience planning. By incorporating machine learning models with traditional statistical analyses, this research provides valuable insights into climate trends, aiding policymakers and researchers in formulating effective climate adaptation strategies.
本研究结合统计和机器学习方法对气象趋势进行了综合评估,重点关注降雨量、最低温度(MinT)和最高温度(MaxT)。Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Sen斜率估计发现,MaxT(斜率= 0.0154,p = 9.42E-06)和MinT(斜率= 0.0190,p = 4.73E-07)的上升趋势具有统计学意义,表明气候持续变暖。降雨量呈上升趋势,但不具有统计学意义(p = 0.9516,斜率= 4.07E-05),表明降雨量是随机变异而非持续增加。利用机器学习模型来提高这些气象参数的预测准确性。ARIMA对MaxT和Rainfall的精度最高(MAE = 3.0080, 0.1728;RMSE = 3.4967, 0.2916),而XGBoost在MinT上表现出优异的性能(MAE = 2.7726, RMSE = 3.8555)。这些发现强调了采取气候适应措施的迫切需要,因为气温上升可能加剧热浪,增加能源需求,并影响农业生产力。该研究强调了整合先进的预测技术以支持积极的气候适应能力规划的重要性。通过将机器学习模型与传统的统计分析相结合,本研究为气候趋势提供了有价值的见解,帮助政策制定者和研究人员制定有效的气候适应战略。
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引用次数: 0
How does HAIKUI remnant produce heavy precipitation in 2023 2023年海葵残区如何产生强降水
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101563
Ping Ye , Yuan Zhu , Haoya Liu
In 2023, HAIKUI's prolonged remnant caused exceptional destruction, exposing critical gaps in understanding tropical cyclone (TC) remnant dynamics. While existing studies have documented decay processes of TC remnant, systematic analyses of stage-dependent moisture transport remain lacking. This study combines multi-source data to reveal HAIKUI remnant's structural evolution, moisture trajectories, and precipitation drivers. During the persistence of the HAIKUI remnant, the mountain ranges together with environmental airflow played a pivotal role in isolating the low-pressure system, maintaining its coverage largely unchanged. Based on temporal variations, the lifecycle of HAIKUI remnant can be segmented into three distinct stages: the moving stage, the charging stage, and the separating stage. In the moving stage, the center of HAIKUI remnant and the corresponding rain band gradually shifted westward, exhibiting both barotropic and baroclinic characteristics. The charging stage marked a period where HAIKUI remnant's center hovered over Guangxi Province. The dominance of barotropic structure enhanced moisture convergence, generating an arc-shaped heavy rainfall belt. In the separating stage, the mid- and low-level centers of HAIKUI remnant moved toward opposing directions, resulting in a primarily baroclinic circulation structure. The convergence of cold and warm air led to precipitation in the Pearl River Delta region. The findings highlighted the impact of topography and moisture transport on the evolution and precipitation of TC remnant, offering valuable insights for future predictions of precipitation- and flood-related disasters caused by such remnants.
2023年,海葵的长时间残余造成了异常的破坏,暴露了对热带气旋(TC)残余动力学的理解的关键空白。虽然现有的研究已经记录了TC残余物的衰变过程,但仍然缺乏对阶段相关水分输送的系统分析。本研究结合多源资料揭示了海葵残片的结构演化、水汽运动轨迹和降水驱动因素。在海葵残余物持续期间,山脉和环境气流对低压系统起到了隔离作用,使其覆盖范围基本保持不变。根据时间变化特征,将海葵残体的生命周期划分为三个阶段:移动阶段、充装阶段和分离阶段。在移动阶段,海葵残余物中心和相应的雨带逐渐向西移动,呈现正斜压特征。冲锋阶段标志着海葵残余中心在广西上空盘旋的时期。正压结构的优势增强了水汽辐合,形成弧形强雨带。分离阶段,海葵残余物中低层中心向相反方向移动,形成以斜压为主的环流结构。冷暖空气辐合导致珠江三角洲地区出现降水。这些发现突出了地形和水分输送对TC残余物演化和降水的影响,为未来预测由这些残余物引起的降水和洪水相关灾害提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
New formulas for estimating initial dilution of buoyancy-dominated jets in a current 估算水流中浮力主导射流初始稀释的新公式
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101561
Galip Seckin , Cagatayhan Bekir Ersu , Irfan Macit
For buoyancy-dominated effluents discharged into moving water, three distinct regions are recognized: the buoyancy-dominated near field (BDNF), the buoyancy-dominated far field (BDFF), and an intermediate transition region. Most existing initial dilution formulas—derived from empirical and field studies—focus on the BDNF and BDFF regions while neglecting the transition zone. In this study, two new semi-empirical equations were developed using field and experimental data: one for submerged discharges and another for minimum surface dilution. These equations were calibrated via nonlinear regression, offering a unified approach to effectively calculating initial dilution across both the BDNF and BDFF regions while also addressing the transition region’s dilution in a single step. The proposed formulas were further validated through comparison with an earlier semi-empirical model using the same dataset.
对于排入流动水体的以浮力为主的污水,可以识别出三个不同的区域:以浮力为主的近场(BDNF)、以浮力为主的远场(BDFF)和中间过渡区域。大多数现有的初始稀释公式——源自经验和实地研究——关注BDNF和BDFF区域,而忽略了过渡区。在这项研究中,利用现场和实验数据建立了两个新的半经验方程:一个用于淹没排水,另一个用于最小表面稀释。这些方程通过非线性回归进行校准,提供了一种统一的方法来有效地计算BDNF和BDFF区域的初始稀释,同时也在一个步骤中解决过渡区域的稀释问题。通过与先前使用相同数据集的半经验模型的比较,进一步验证了所提出的公式。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of climate change on the thermal stratification of the Gulf of Oman 气候变化对阿曼湾热分层的影响
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101560
Shirin Farkhani, Nasser Hadjizadeh Zaker
Water temperature and thermal stratification have fundamental effects on marine environments, ecosystems, and water circulation patterns. Marine ecosystems are generally highly sensitive to thermal changes. Global warming can fundamentally alter oceanic temperature fields and thermal stratification(Cheng, 2019)(Cheng, 2019). Therefore, studying the effects of climate change on the thermal characteristics of the oceans and seas is vital. Using numerical modeling, and three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, we studied the effects of global warming on the sea surface temperature and vertical thermal structure of the Gulf of Oman. Atmospheric data from the ERA5 and CORDEX models were used for recent past (1980–2000) and future (2080–2100) modeling, respectively. Results indicated that, in the future climate, the temperature across the upper 1000 m of the Gulf of Oman will increase. In summer, temperature increments in the surface mixed layer were estimated at + 1.9, + 2.5, and + 3.4°C for RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively. Below the thermocline, the temperature increments were less than the ones in the surface mixed layer. In winter, future temperature increments in the surface mixed layer were + 1.2, + 1.6, and + 2°C for RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively. The results indicated a stronger summer thermocline in the future with temperature gradients of 0.055, 0.057, and 0.06 °C/m in the RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, which could significantly reduce dissolved oxygen concentration in the lower layers. This study provides insights that can help develop adaptable strategies to manage and mitigate the harmful impacts of global warming on the Gulf of Oman.
水温和热分层对海洋环境、生态系统和水循环模式具有根本性的影响。海洋生态系统通常对热变化高度敏感。全球变暖可以从根本上改变海洋温度场和热分层(Cheng, 2019)(Cheng, 2019)。因此,研究气候变化对海洋热特性的影响至关重要。利用数值模拟和3种代表性浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP)情景,研究了全球变暖对阿曼湾海表温度和垂直热结构的影响。来自ERA5和CORDEX模式的大气数据分别用于最近的过去(1980-2000)和未来(2080-2100)模式。结果表明,在未来气候中,阿曼湾上部1000 m的温度将升高。夏季,RCP为2.6、4.5和8.5时,地表混合层的温度增量分别为+ 1.9、+ 2.5和+ 3.4°C。温跃层以下的增温幅度小于地表混合层。冬季,RCP为2.6、4.5和8.5时,地表混合层未来增温分别为+ 1.2、+ 1.6和+ 2°C。结果表明,未来夏季温跃层较强,RCP 2.6、4.5和8.5的温度梯度分别为0.055、0.057和0.06 °C/m,可显著降低低层溶解氧浓度。这项研究提供的见解可以帮助制定适应性策略,以管理和减轻全球变暖对阿曼湾的有害影响。
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Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans
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