Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans最新文献_第5页

Compounded influence of extreme coastal water level and subsidence on coastal flooding from satellite showcased at Saint-Louis (Senegal, West Africa) 在圣路易斯（西非塞内加尔）展示的卫星数据显示，极端沿海水位和下沉对沿海洪水的复合影响

IF 2 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans

Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101597

Cheikh Omar Tidjani Cissé , Anoumou Rene Tano , Emmanuel.K. Brempong , Adelaïde Taveneau , Rafael Almar , Donatus B. Angnuureng , Boubou Aldiouma Sy

In the face of rising in sea level due to climate change, the occurrence of extreme events such as storms is increasingly affecting coastal areas, particularly low-lying coasts. Knowledge of these phenomena is an important factor in mitigating the risk of coastal flooding and protecting coastal communities. The main objective of this study is to contribute to the understanding of the joint effect of changes in coastal extreme events and topographic subsidence on coastal flooding in Saint-Louis. As part of this process, we have quantified total water levels at the coast by using the regional sea level variation, ocean tide, surge, wind sea and swell waves data over the 1996–2021 period. All these datasets have been analyzed by Mann-Kendall statistical trend, the synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) interferometry technique, and the ‘zero side rule’ bathtub model. The results reveal a monotonic trend in total water levels on the Langue de Barbarie with the order of 0.049 m/yr the topographic subsidence varies from −6.4 to −0.4 mm/year. The spatialization of the flood wave reveals that the three spatial entities of Saint-Louis are extremely vulnerable to coastal flooding, but the extension of the flood wave is unevenly distributed at spatial scale. A comparison between the trend in maximum subsidence (-6.4 m/yr) and that in extreme mean water levels (0.049 m/yr) shows that the maximum trend in subsidence represents 13.06 % of the maximum trend in extreme coastal water level. This study enabled us to understand the influence of subsidence on flooding in Saint-Louis.

面对气候变化导致的海平面上升，风暴等极端事件的发生越来越多地影响到沿海地区，特别是低洼沿海地区。了解这些现象是减轻沿海洪水风险和保护沿海社区的一个重要因素。本研究的主要目的是有助于了解沿海极端事件变化和地形沉降对圣路易斯沿海洪水的共同影响。作为这一过程的一部分，我们利用1996-2021年期间的区域海平面变化、海潮、浪涌、风海和涌浪数据，量化了海岸的总水位。采用Mann-Kendall统计趋势、InSAR干涉测量技术和“零边规则”浴盆模型对这些数据进行了分析。结果表明，在巴伯里湖总水位为0.049 m/年的单调趋势下，地形沉降在−6.4 ~−0.4 mm/年之间变化。洪波的空间化表明，圣路易三个空间实体极易受到沿海洪水的影响，但洪波的延伸在空间尺度上分布不均匀。最大沉降趋势（-6.4 m/yr）与极端平均水位趋势（0.049 m/yr）的对比表明，最大沉降趋势占沿海极端水位最大趋势的13.06 %。这项研究使我们能够了解下沉对圣路易斯洪水的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Interannual rainfall variability in Northeast Brazil influenced by Pacific and Atlantic climate modes 太平洋和大西洋气候模式对巴西东北部年际降水变异的影响

IF 2 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans

Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101596

Evelin Landin Vitorio , Thiago Silva , Isabelle Vilela , Edvânia Santos , Doris Veleda

Northeast Brazil (NEB) is a climatically diverse region that includes semi-arid zones highly vulnerable to droughts and coastal areas frequently affected by extreme rainfall and flooding. These extremes pose significant challenges to water security, agriculture, and infrastructure. Effective climate forecasting in NEB requires a comprehensive understanding of multi-basin interactions, as they play a pivotal role in shaping regional precipitation patterns. Monitoring the simultaneous influences of both the Pacific and Atlantic climate indices is crucial for improving prediction accuracy, given the complex and interconnected nature of ocean-atmosphere dynamics that affect the region. This study investigates 75 years (1948–2022) of Pacific and Atlantic climate modes and their impact on NEB precipitation. Composite analyses were conducted using the 25th and 75th percentiles of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies to define the warm and cold phases of each climate index. The results show distinct rainfall patterns across the NEB, with delayed responses to different oceanic indices. In Northern NEB (NNEB), the positive phases of Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduce rainfall, while the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole (SAOD) and Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) increase it. In Northern Eastern NEB (ENEBn), the positive phases of the AMM and Niño 1 + 2 decrease rainfall, while the South Atlantic Warm Pool (SAWP) enhances it. Simultaneous influences of the Pacific and Atlantic indices are associated with intense precipitation or drought events.

巴西东北部（NEB）是一个气候多样化的地区，包括极易受到干旱影响的半干旱地区和经常受到极端降雨和洪水影响的沿海地区。这些极端天气对水安全、农业和基础设施构成了重大挑战。在东北地区进行有效的气候预报需要对多流域相互作用有全面的了解，因为它们在形成区域降水模式方面起着关键作用。考虑到影响该区域的海洋-大气动力学的复杂性和相互关联性，监测太平洋和大西洋气候指数的同时影响对提高预测精度至关重要。本文研究了太平洋和大西洋的75年（1948-2022）气候模式及其对东北地区降水的影响。利用海表温度（SST）异常的第25和75百分位进行复合分析，确定了各气候指数的暖相和冷相。结果表明，整个东北地区的降雨模式不同，对不同的海洋指数有延迟响应。在北东太平洋（NNEB），大西洋经向模态（AMM）和厄尔尼诺Niño-Southern涛动（ENSO）的正相位减少了降水，而南大西洋偶极子（SAOD）和热带南大西洋（TSA）增加了降水。东北东北地区（ENEBn） AMM和Niño 1 + 2正相减少降水，而南大西洋暖池（SAWP）增强降水。太平洋和大西洋指数的同时影响与强降水或干旱事件有关。

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引用次数: 0

Long waves propagating at the interface between an inviscid subsonic gas and an Oldroyd-B liquid flowing down an oblique substrate 在无粘性亚音速气体和沿斜基底向下流动的Oldroyd-B液体之间的界面上传播的长波

IF 2 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans

Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101587

Ahmed Assaf , Sameh A. Alkharashi

The present problem investigated the dynamics of a fine layer for Oldroyd-B liquid moving down an inclined plate subject to a subsonic gas. Solitons propagating at such an interface were investigated to enhance the work novelty. The technique of thin film was employed to get an evolution relation that prescribes such an interface shape along time increase. The treatment based on linear theory was employed. The stability might be enhanced by means of increasing gas thickness and surface tension or decreasing the perturbation coefficient of gas. The viscosity ratio, Reynolds number, and relaxation time had a dual impact. The presence of moving solitons was illustrated under certain conditions for such a film. The nonlinear expectations could be more precision to prescribe the instability compared to the linear one. The present results did give an acceptable practical implementation of potential applications besides facilitating the way to precise numerical simulation.

本问题研究了在亚音速气体作用下，Oldroyd-B液体沿倾斜板向下运动的细层动力学。为了提高工作的新颖性，研究了在这种界面上传播的孤子。利用薄膜技术得到了这种界面形状随时间增加的演化关系。采用基于线性理论的处理方法。通过增加气体的厚度和表面张力或减小气体的微扰系数可以提高其稳定性。黏度比、雷诺数和弛豫时间具有双重影响。运动孤子的存在是在这种电影的特定条件下说明的。与线性期望相比，非线性期望能更精确地描述不稳定性。本文的结果除了为精确的数值模拟提供了途径外，还为潜在的应用提供了可接受的实际实现。

引用次数: 0

The method of single points wave spectrum generation for regional sea based on multimodal model in the Bohai sea, China 基于多模态模式的渤海区域海域单点波浪谱生成方法

IF 2 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans

Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101586

Xiandong Cao , Mingli Zuo , Xianbin Wang , Zhifeng Wang , Yuze Niu , Ping Wang , Yunqi Lv

Wave spectra provide comprehensive information on ocean waves, including frequency and direction. However, due to the influence of topographical obstructions and variations in bathymetry, the application of deep learning in wave spectra prediction in semi-enclosed seas is limited. To address this issue, this study proposes a multimodal wave spectrum generation model for single points in regional seas. The model is developed based on an Encoder-Decoder architecture and further enhanced by incorporating the Coordinate Attention mechanism. The dataset for deep learning was simulated using the WAVEWATCH III numerical wave model and validated against buoy measurements. The input data for the deep learning model consists of multi-scale data, including regional wind fields and bathymetry, wind parameters and bathymetry at the target point. To evaluate the model's performance, we assessed the accuracy of the wave spectrum and wave spectrum integral parameters using the correlation coefficient, mean absolute error and root mean square error. Statistical analysis of wave spectrum and wave spectrum integral parameters illustrates that the generated wave spectra accurately reflect the total energy and energy distribution characteristics of the real wave spectra. The results demonstrate that the deep learning model effectively learns the nonlinear relationship between the input data and the wave spectrum in semi-enclosed seas.

波浪谱提供了关于海浪的全面信息，包括频率和方向。然而，由于地形障碍和水深变化的影响，深度学习在半封闭海波浪谱预测中的应用受到限制。为了解决这一问题，本研究提出了区域海域单点多模态波浪谱生成模型。该模型基于编码器-解码器架构，并通过加入坐标注意机制进一步增强。使用WAVEWATCH III数值波浪模型对深度学习数据集进行了模拟，并根据浮标测量结果进行了验证。深度学习模型的输入数据由多尺度数据组成，包括区域风场和测深、目标点风参数和测深。为了评估模型的性能，我们使用相关系数、平均绝对误差和均方根误差来评估波谱和波谱积分参数的精度。对波浪谱和波浪谱积分参数的统计分析表明，生成的波浪谱准确反映了真实波浪谱的总能量和能量分布特征。结果表明，深度学习模型能有效地学习半封闭海域输入数据与波浪谱之间的非线性关系。

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引用次数: 0

Raindrop size distribution characteristics of summer and autumn tropical cyclones in the South China Sea based on satellite observations 基于卫星观测的南海夏季和秋季热带气旋雨滴大小分布特征

IF 2 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans

Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101585

Guiling Qian , Jiangnan Li , Jianfei Chen

The study of Raindrop size distribution (RSD) not only deepens the understanding of the microphysical processes of tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation, but also has practical value for improving the accuracy of precipitation forecasts. A total of 85 tropical cyclones that formed or passed through the South China Sea (SCS) from 2014 to 2022 were selected, of which 77 had relatively complete shapes in the satellite datasets. The basic characteristics of TCs in summer and autumn were compared using synthetic analysis, and the differences in the RSD characteristics were analyzed in particular. The results show that mass-weighted mean diameter (D_m) larger than 1.8 mm mainly appears below 5 km, with a probability of less than 0.16 %. In terms of precipitation rate (R), the increase in normalized intercept parameter (N_w) is as important as the increase in D_m to the enhancement of R. The N_w of small-diameter raindrops in the summer with R in the range of 2–5 mm/h is higher than that in autumn, while the N_w of large-diameter raindrops is higher in autumn when the R is greater than 40 mm/h. Compared with none-South China Sea (NSCS) TCs, heavy precipitation in SCS TCs is mainly composed of a higher N_w of small raindrops. Compared with TCs observed in eastern China, TCs in the SCS have a higher N_w and small D_m. Compared with TCs observed in summer, TCs in autumn have a higher N_w of smaller diameters and a higher average N_w at all altitudes.

雨滴粒径分布（RSD）的研究不仅加深了对热带气旋降水微物理过程的认识，而且对提高降水预报的准确性具有实用价值。选取了2014 - 2022年在南海形成或经过的85个热带气旋，其中77个在卫星数据集中具有相对完整的形状。采用综合分析方法比较了夏季和秋季TCs的基本特征，重点分析了RSD特征的差异。结果表明：大于1.8 mm的质量加权平均直径（Dm）主要出现在5 km以下，概率小于0.16 %；在降水速率(R)方面，归一化截距参数（Nw）的增加与Dm的增加对R的增强同样重要，当R在2 ~ 5 mm/h范围内时，夏季小直径雨滴的Nw高于秋季，而当R大于40 mm/h时，秋季大直径雨滴的Nw较高。与非南海（NSCS） tc相比，南海tc的强降水主要由高Nw的小雨滴组成。与中国东部的tc相比，南海的tc具有更高的Nw和较小的Dm。与夏季观测的tc相比，秋季的tc具有更高的Nw，直径更小，所有高度的平均Nw都更高。

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引用次数: 0

High-resolution simulations of tropical cyclone rapid intensity variability: The sensitivity to microphysics and planetary boundary layer scheme combinations 热带气旋快速强度变化的高分辨率模拟：对微物理和行星边界层方案组合的敏感性

IF 2 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans

Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101583

Chen Chen , Jiangnan Li

The rapid intensification (RI) or rapid weakening (RW) of tropical cyclones (TC) is a challenging problem for forecasters. In numerical models, the selection of parameterization schemes, such as microphysics (MP) schemes and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, introduces significant uncertainties in predicting TC intensity. The mechanisms behind the combining effects of different parameterization schemes on TC rapid intensity changes remain unclear. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with various combinations of the WSM6, WSM7, Goddard MP schemes, and the YSU, QNSE and BouLac PBL schemes to conduct multiple high resolution simulation experiments on the TC Mujigae (2015), which experienced both RI and RW processes. The results show that the amount and radial distribution of latent heat release from the early stage of the simulation have close ties with the structure and intensity of the TC, while the surface enthalpy flux plays a relatively secondary role in TC intensity changes. When substantial latent heat release occurs closer to the TC center at the pre-RI period, the eyewall convection intensifies, leading to a higher convective burst (CB) index, faster formation of a compact structure, greater tangential kinetic energy, and RI. An ample surface enthalpy flux is not the key factor triggering the RI process in the experiments. It does not enable the failed group to simulate RI, but it can enhance the intensity in the successful group. The TCs that simulate RI show significantly reduced latent heat and energy supply from the boundary layer after landfall, leading to the RW process. Compared with the actual TC track, intensity, precipitation, brightness temperature, and reflectivity, the Goddard_YSU combination is the best among our experiments, accurately simulating RI and replicating RW. Latent heat from microphysics and the CB index correlate more strongly with TC intensity variations than surface enthalpy flux.

热带气旋的快速增强（RI）或快速减弱（RW）是一个具有挑战性的问题。在数值模式中，参数化方案的选择，如微物理（MP）方案和行星边界层（PBL）方案，在预测TC强度时引入了很大的不确定性。不同参数化方案联合作用对TC快速强度变化的机制尚不清楚。本文利用WSM6、WSM7、Goddard MP方案和YSU、QNSE和BouLac PBL方案组合的WRF模式，对同时经历了RI和RW过程的TC Mujigae（2015）进行了多次高分辨率模拟试验。结果表明：模拟初期的潜热释放量和径向分布与TC的结构和强度密切相关，而表面焓通量对TC强度变化的影响相对次要。当大量潜热释放发生在离TC中心较近的位置时，眼壁对流增强，导致对流爆发（CB）指数更高，致密结构形成更快，切向动能更大，RI更高。在实验中，充足的表面焓通量并不是触发RI过程的关键因素。它不能使失败组模拟RI，但可以增强成功组的强度。模拟RI的TCs显示，登陆后边界层的潜热和能量供应显著减少，导致RW过程。与实际的TC轨迹、强度、降水、亮度温度和反射率相比，godddard_ysu组合是我们实验中最好的，可以准确地模拟RI和复制RW。与表面焓通量相比，微物理潜热和CB指数与TC强度变化的相关性更强。

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引用次数: 0

Long-lived and short-lived heatwaves in the North China Plain: Characteristics and teleconnection mechanisms 华北平原长寿命和短寿命热浪：特征和遥相关机制

IF 1.9 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans

Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101581

Jinhua CHEN , Kuo YAN , Cheng FU , Jian SHI

Atmospheric heatwave events have substantial socioeconomic impacts, which have been hotly investigated as extreme events under global climate change. Previous studies indicated that heatwaves in the North China Plain (NCP) are often induced by the local foehn heating of the Taihang Mountains and the circulation anomalies partly due to remote teleconnection. However, limited study classified and analyzed the differences between short-lived and long-lived heatwaves over the NCP, in particular in terms of their formation and maintenance mechanisms. Our results indicate that the anomalous ridge and related enhancement of diabatic heating in the lower troposphere play a more significant role in the persistence of long-lived heatwaves in the NCP. By analyzing wave activity flux and Rossby wave source, we find that circulation and diabatic heating anomalies over Mediterranean Sea and Turkey, related to the precipitation anomalies there, excite Rossby wave train that propagates eastward, triggering and maintaining the anomalous ridge over the NCP. This study highlights the potential predictability of long-lived heatwaves in the NCP from the perspective of Rossby wave teleconnection.

大气热浪事件具有重要的社会经济影响，是全球气候变化背景下的极端事件。以往的研究表明，华北平原的热浪通常是由太行山的局地热气加热和部分遥相关的环流异常引起的。然而，有限的研究分类和分析了NCP上短期和长期热浪的差异，特别是在它们的形成和维持机制方面。研究结果表明，距平脊和对流层下层非绝热加热的增强对北太平洋地区长寿命热浪的持续起着更重要的作用。通过对波活动通量和罗斯比波源的分析，发现与降水异常有关的地中海和土耳其上空的环流和非绝热加热异常激发了向东传播的罗斯比波列，触发并维持了NCP上空的异常脊。本研究从罗斯比波遥相关的角度强调了NCP长寿命热浪的潜在可预测性。

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引用次数: 0

Alteration in the large-scale circulation of south america triggered by the upper-tropospheric cyclonic vortices of Northeast Brazil 巴西东北部对流层上层气旋涡旋引发的南美大尺度环流变化

IF 1.9 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans

Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101582

Matheus José Arruda Lyra , Josefina Moraes Arraut , Enio Pereira de Souza

This study investigates how Upper-Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortices (UTCVs), which commonly form over Northeast Brazil (NEB), influence large-scale moisture transport across South America. UTCVs are the most important weather systems occurring in the pre-rainy season in Northeast Brazil and their understanding provides insights for improving short-term weather forecasting. Using 20 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1999–2018) provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GOES satellite imagery, we analyze circulation changes associated with UTCVs and their impacts on rainfall in NEB. Results show that while moisture typically enters South America from the tropical Atlantic and moves westward into the Amazon, approximately 36 % of UTCVs disrupted this pattern by inducing a west-to-east moisture flow from the Amazon toward NEB. These events led to enhanced convergence over the vortex region and significantly increased precipitation. We present a conceptual model summarizing these mechanisms, providing new insights into the hydrometeorological role of UTCVs in regional rainfall variability and forecasting.

本研究探讨了通常在巴西东北部（NEB）形成的对流层上层气旋涡旋（utcv）如何影响南美洲的大尺度水汽输送。utcv是巴西东北部雨季前最重要的天气系统，对它们的了解为改善短期天气预报提供了见解。利用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）提供的20年ERA-Interim再分析数据（1999-2018）和GOES卫星图像，我们分析了与utcv相关的环流变化及其对NEB降雨的影响。结果表明，虽然水汽通常从热带大西洋进入南美洲，并向西移动到亚马逊河；大约36% %的utcv通过诱导从亚马逊向东北偏东的水汽流而破坏了这种模式。这些事件导致涡旋区域的辐合增强，显著增加了降水。我们提出了一个概念模型，总结了这些机制，为utcv在区域降雨变率和预报中的水文气象作用提供了新的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Aircraft observations of tropical cyclones core structure over the South China Sea and their impacts on track and intensity forecasts 南海热带气旋核心结构的飞机观测及其对路径和强度预报的影响

IF 1.9 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans

Pub Date : 2025-07-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101580

Chengzhong Zhang , Pak-wai Chan , Sheng Hu , Yerong Feng , Shuixin Zhong , Yanyan Huang

In this study, characteristics of wind and temperature in the inner-core region of tropical cyclones (TCs) are analyzed using dropsonde data from three aircraft observation missions over the South China Sea (SCS) conducted by the Hong Kong Observatory between 2022 and 2023. The impact of assimilating inner-core dropsonde data on TC track and intensity forecasts is also evaluated. Results indicate that both TCs Nesat and Suola exhibit shared features: Tangential wind speeds weaken significantly above 850–500 hPa; A distinct warm core structure persists between 700 and 300 hPa; The boundary layer height varies across cases. Two parallel experiments，ASSI_drop (with inner-core dropsonde assimilation) and No_da (without assimilation), were implemented using the GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) model with 3DVar. Data assimilation significantly reduced 72-hour mean track errors (49 % of reduction), while intensity forecasts showed neutral to weak positive improvements. The track improvement closely aligns with Feng et al. (2023)'s reduction via inner-core assimilation in northern SCS cases, while substantially exceeding the 10–13 % range documented in analogous SCS studies (Chan et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2020). North Pacific DOTSTAR（Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region）cases demonstrated a 22 % mean improvement (Wu et al., 2007), contrasting with the SCS's 10–49 % variability range. This regional inconsistency underscores the necessity for expanded airborne dropsonde campaigns across the SCS to establish result representativeness and regional applicability.

本文利用香港天文台于2022年至2023年在南海上空进行的三次飞机观测任务，分析了热带气旋内心区的风和温度特征。本文还评价了同化内岩心下探数据对TC轨迹和强度预测的影响。结果表明：在850 ~ 500 hPa以上，切向风速显著减弱；在700和300 hPa之间存在明显的暖核结构；边界层高度在不同情况下是不同的。采用3DVar的GRAPES （Global/Regional assimilation and Prediction System）模型进行ASSI_drop（具有内核dropsonde同化）和No_da（不具有同化）两个并行实验。数据同化显著降低了72小时平均航迹误差（减少49% %），而强度预测显示出中性到微弱的积极改善。轨迹改善与Feng等人（2023）在北部SCS病例中通过内核同化减少的结果密切相关，同时大大超过了类似SCS研究中记录的10-13 %的范围(Chan等人，2018；Zhang等人，2020)。北太平洋DOTSTAR（台湾地区附近台风监测投风仪观测）案例显示平均改善了22 % (Wu等，2007)，与南海10-49 %的变化范围形成对比。这种区域不一致强调了在整个南海扩大机载投空探空运动的必要性，以建立结果的代表性和区域适用性。

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引用次数: 0

Enhancing groundwater quality index prediction in data-scarce regions: Application of advanced artificial intelligence models in Nagaland, India 加强数据稀缺地区地下水质量指数预测：先进人工智能模型在印度那加兰邦的应用

IF 1.9 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans

Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101579

Subhrajyoti Deb

The Groundwater Quality Index (GQI) serves as a critical benchmark for assessing the long-term impacts of anthropogenic activities and natural processes on groundwater quality. However, calculating GQI from irregular datasets containing multiple parameters is often prone to errors. Despite growing interest in machine learning for water quality assessment, very few studies have explored groundwater quality prediction in data-scarce topographically complex regions. Moreover, limited efforts have been made to compare a wide range of Artificial Intelligence (AI) models under variable input scenarios using actual field data. To address this research gap, this study employs eight advanced AI models—Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Autoregressive Model (AR), Locally-weighted Linear Regression (LLR), M5P tree, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Random Forest (RF), Random Subspace (RS), and Support Vector Machine (SVM)—to predict GQI in Nagaland, a data-scarce hilly region in northeastern India. The research focuses on identifying an optimal subset regression for two scenarios: one optimizing GQI computation time by incorporating all water quality parameters, and the other exploring variations using the most sensitive parameters. Key findings reveal strong linear relationships between hydro-chemical parameters and GQI, with significant correlations such as Na⁺ with TDS (0.936) and Mg²⁺ with GQI (0.922). Sensitivity analysis identifies TDS and TH as primary determinants of GQI. Among the models, MLR achieves higher accuracy in the first scenario, with performance metrics of R (correlation coefficient) = 0.9999, MAE (Mean Absolute Error) = 0.0001, and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) = 0.0002 %. In contrast, ANN performs better in the second scenario, with MAE = 2.4718, R = 0.9977, and RAE = 3.5463 %. These results highlight the efficacy of advanced AI models in enhancing GQI prediction accuracy, particularly in data-scarce regions like Nagaland.

地下水质量指数（GQI）是评价人类活动和自然过程对地下水质量长期影响的重要基准。然而，从包含多个参数的不规则数据集计算GQI往往容易出错。尽管人们对水质评估的机器学习越来越感兴趣，但很少有研究在数据稀缺的地形复杂地区探索地下水质量预测。此外，在使用实际现场数据的可变输入场景下，对各种人工智能（AI）模型进行比较的努力有限。为了弥补这一研究空白，本研究采用了八种先进的人工智能模型——人工神经网络（ANN）、自回归模型（AR）、局部加权线性回归（LLR）、M5P树、多元线性回归（MLR）、随机森林（RF）、随机子空间（RS）和支持向量机（SVM）——来预测印度东北部数据稀缺的山区那加兰邦的GQI。研究的重点是确定两种情况下的最优子集回归：一种是通过合并所有水质参数来优化GQI计算时间，另一种是使用最敏感的参数来探索变化。关键发现表明，水化学参数与GQI之间存在较强的线性关系，其中Na+与TDS（0.936）、Mg2+与GQI（0.922）的相关性显著。敏感性分析表明TDS和TH是GQI的主要决定因素。其中，MLR模型在第一种场景下的准确率较高，其性能指标R（相关系数）= 0.9999，MAE（平均绝对误差）= 0.0001，RMSE（均方根误差）= 0.0002 %。相比之下，ANN在第二种场景下表现更好，MAE = 2.4718,R = 0.9977,RAE = 3.5463 %。这些结果突出了先进的人工智能模型在提高GQI预测准确性方面的功效，特别是在那加兰邦等数据稀缺地区。

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引用次数: 0