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Improving significant wave height prediction via temporal data imputation 基于时间数据的有效波高预测改进
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101549
Jia Si , Jie Wang , Yingjun Deng
Accurate prediction of significant wave height (SWH) is crucial for a wide range of marine and coastal applications. However, achieving an accurate data-driven prediction of SWH requires effective multivariate time series modeling. Furthermore, missing values appear frequently in the raw data and influence the accuracy of the prediction. In this study, we propose a novel diffusion-based approach for continuous-time modeling and temporal imputation of multivariate time series. By learning the temporal correlations and interdependencies among variables in the buoy’s data, the imputation of missing data is conducted to enhance the SWH prediction. Experiments are performed using buoy data from the National Data Buoy Center of USA to validate the effectiveness of temporal imputation and the use of multivariate data. The experimental results, compared with baseline methods and univariate predictions, highlight the advantage of Conditional Score-Based Diffusion Models (CSDI) in capturing temporal correlations and its effectiveness in improving short-term predictions of SWH. CSDI improves imputation by 7%–30% over existing imputation methods on popular performance metrics. Compared to univariate data, the better SWH prediction results on multivariate data confirm that temporal data imputation is beneficial for prediction.
有效波高(SWH)的准确预测对于广泛的海洋和沿海应用至关重要。然而,实现准确的数据驱动的SWH预测需要有效的多变量时间序列建模。此外,原始数据中经常出现缺失值,影响预测的准确性。在本研究中,我们提出了一种新的基于扩散的多变量时间序列连续时间建模和时间插值方法。通过学习浮标数据中各变量间的时间相关性和相互依赖性,对缺失数据进行代入,增强对SWH的预测。利用美国国家数据浮标中心的浮标数据进行了实验,验证了时间插值和多元数据使用的有效性。与基线方法和单变量预测相比,实验结果突出了基于条件分数的扩散模型(CSDI)在捕获时间相关性方面的优势,以及它在改善SWH短期预测方面的有效性。在流行的性能指标上,CSDI比现有的估算方法提高了7%-30%。与单变量数据相比,多变量数据的SWH预测结果更好,证实了时间数据的代入有利于预测。
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引用次数: 0
Formation mechanism of overshooting convection in the southwest vortex circulation under the influence of mesoscale gravity wave 中尺度重力波影响下西南涡旋环流中过冲对流的形成机制
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101559
Yizhou Xu , Guoping Li , Xiaoyu Zhang , Yuanchang Dong , Xin Xie
Using ERA5 reanalysis data, GPM satellite precipitation products, and radar mosaic combination reflectivity (RMCR) data, the formation mechanism of overshooting convection (OC) in the southwest vortex (SWV) circulation under the influence of mesoscale gravity wave (MGW) on 18 Jul 2022 was analyzed on synoptic dynamics to deepen the understanding of the correlation characteristics between the SWV and the MGW, and then to explore the formation mechanism of OC in the Sichuan Basin (SCB). Results showed that the undulating terrain and stable atmospheric stratification generated the MGW. The adjustment of the SWV circulation caused the strong water vapor flux convergence at 850 hPa in the early stage of OC. The change of divergence field caused by MGW promoted the eastward development of the updraft in the SWV circulation, and the SWV center tilted to the southeast. The ascending center separated by the SWV merged horizontally with the updraft phase of MGW, and the merged ascending airflow connected vertically to the ascending center in the upper troposphere. The water vapor convergence and heating center in the upper troposphere and the horizontal wind momentum transporting upward led to OC. The strengthening of the negative vertical vorticity phase of MGW and the movement of dry cold air mass led to the northwestward propagation of negative vertical vorticity, thus forming the difference in the vertical distribution of vertical vorticity, which was negative in the upper and positive in the lower. The stable updraft phase of the MGW and the dry cold air mass propagation cooled the lower atmosphere and increased the convective available potential energy (CAPE). The adjustment of the internal circulation of the SWV extended the range of convective instability from the ground to 600 hPa, which was also conducive to the formation of OC.
利用ERA5再分析资料、GPM卫星降水产品和雷达马赛克组合反射率(RMCR)资料,从天气动力学角度分析了2022年7月18日中尺度重力波(MGW)影响下西南涡旋(SWV)环流中过冲对流(OC)的形成机制,以加深对SWV与MGW相关特征的认识,进而探讨四川盆地(SCB) OC的形成机制。结果表明,起伏的地形和稳定的大气分层形成了MGW。SWV环流的调整导致OC前期850 hPa水汽通量辐合较强。MGW引起的辐散场变化促进了SWV环流上升气流向东发展,SWV中心向东南倾斜。被SWV分隔的上升中心在水平方向上与MGW上升气流相合并,合并后的上升气流在垂直方向上与对流层上层上升中心相连。对流层上层水汽辐合加热中心和水平风向向上输送导致了OC的产生。MGW负垂向涡度相的增强和干冷气团的移动导致负垂向涡度向西北传播,从而形成了垂直涡度垂直分布上负下正的差异。MGW稳定的上升气流阶段和干冷气团的传播使低层大气冷却,对流有效势能(CAPE)增加。SWV内部环流的调整将对流不稳定范围从地面延伸至600 hPa,也有利于OC的形成。
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引用次数: 0
The Caspian Sea as a full-scale experimental facility supported by altimetry measurements of wind-driven waves 里海是一个全面的实验设施,由风浪的测高测量支持
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101554
Sergei I. Badulin , Andrey G. Kostianoy , Sergey A. Lebedev , Alexander P. Popov
The Caspian Sea is the largest inland water body. Strong and stable winds regularly occur along its longest stretch of more than 1000 km from the Volga Lowland in Russia to the Iranian coast. During these events, wind speeds can exceed 20 m/s and significant wave heights 5 m. These wind directions often align with the tracks of satellite altimeters that have been monitoring the sea state since September 1992. This makes the Caspian Sea an ideal location replicating idealized conditions for the growth of wind-driven waves, and supported by a high-precision network of satellite altimeters.
The shape of the coastline and prevalent wind directions allowed us to view the sea as a full-scale wind-wave research facility. In situ measurements and observations of sea state in this area are scarce and inaccurate while the altimetry tracks provide a ready-to-use high-quality measurement network. We analyze data of satellite missions Jason-3 for years 2016-2022 and CFOSAT (Chinese-French Oceanography SATellite) for 2019-2023 to assess the potential of the full-scale experimental facility. These missions provide valuable data showcasing the Caspian Sea as a realistic model for the World Ocean with minimal contaminating effects of swell, tides and currents. This makes the “clean cases” of the Caspian Sea particularly valuable both as a reference for understanding general wave physics and for regional studies on sea wave dynamics.
里海是最大的内陆水体。从俄罗斯的伏尔加低地到伊朗海岸,最长的一段超过1000公里,强风和稳定的风经常出现。在这些事件中,风速可超过20米/秒,显著浪高可达5米。这些风向通常与自1992年9月以来一直监测海况的卫星高度计的轨迹一致。这使得里海成为一个理想的地点,复制了风力驱动的海浪生长的理想条件,并得到了高精度卫星高度计网络的支持。海岸线的形状和盛行的风向使我们能够将大海视为一个全面的风浪研究设施。该地区的海况现场测量和观测是稀缺和不准确的,而高程轨迹提供了一个随时可用的高质量测量网络。我们分析了2016-2022年Jason-3卫星任务和2019-2023年CFOSAT(中法海洋学卫星)卫星任务的数据,以评估全尺寸实验设施的潜力。这些任务提供了宝贵的数据,表明里海是世界海洋的现实模型,海浪、潮汐和海流的污染影响最小。这使得里海的“干净案例”作为理解一般波浪物理和海浪动力学区域研究的参考特别有价值。
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引用次数: 0
Monsoon dynamics and future projections in the Himalaya: Insights into sea surface temperature, sea level pressure relationships, and future flood risks 喜马拉雅季风动态和未来预测:对海面温度、海平面压力关系和未来洪水风险的洞察
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-05-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101558
Mayank Shekhar , Pushpendra Pandey , Shaktiman Singh , Anupam Sharma
The Himalaya influences the fundamental features of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) circulation across South Asia. Reliable predictions of ISM dynamics require an improved understanding of the relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–sea surface temperature (SST) and Sea Level Pressure (SLP) relationships in the Niño region. To address this, we conducted a detailed analysis of teleconnections, correlations, regime shifts, periodicity, and return periods of monsoons over the Karakoram Himalaya (KH), Western Himalaya (WH), Central Himalaya (CH), and Eastern Himalaya (EH) using gridded precipitation, ENSO-SST, and SLP data across the Niño 4, 3.4, and 3 regions. Additionally, we examined Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) projections considering evolving relationships. The findings show that the monsoons over the CH, WH, EH, and KH have stronger, moderate, weaker, and weakest spatial correlations, respectively, with the SST of Niño regions. Notably, the SST anomalies for the Niño regions 4 and 3.4 reveal distinct regime shift for the years 1977 C.E. and 1990 C.E., however, Niño regions 3 and 1 + 2, do not exhibit any such shift. The SST anomalies for the Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 from 1977 to 2019 C.E., and 1990–2019 C.E., were 0.087°C and 0.060°C, respectively, indicating systematic warming of the sea surface. This warming trend is further linked to projections from CMIP5 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, which suggest that the EH region may experience significant flooding during the monsoon months by 2100 due to high and extreme precipitation.
喜马拉雅影响着南亚的印度夏季风(ISM)环流的基本特征。对ISM动力学的可靠预测需要更好地理解Niño地区El Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO) -海面温度(SST)和海平面压力(SLP)之间的关系。为了解决这一问题,我们利用Niño 4、3.4和3个地区的网格降水、ENSO-SST和SLP数据,对喀拉昆仑-喜马拉雅(KH)、西喜马拉雅(WH)、中喜马拉雅(CH)和东喜马拉雅(EH)季风的远距联系、相关性、制度转变、周期性和回归期进行了详细分析。此外,我们还研究了耦合模式比较项目第5阶段(CMIP5)考虑演变关系的预测。结果表明,西南、WH、EH和KH地区季风与Niño地区海温的空间相关性分别较强、中等、较弱和最弱。值得注意的是,Niño区域4和3.4的海温异常显示了1977年 ce的明显变化和1990年 着力点然而,Niño区域3和1 + 2没有表现出任何这样的变化。1977 - 2019年Niño 3.4和Niño 4海温距平 C.E.,和1990-2019 C.E.,分别为0.087°C和0.060°C,表明海面系统变暖。这种变暖趋势与CMIP5 RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5的预测进一步相关,这些预测表明,到2100年,由于高降水和极端降水,EH地区可能在季风月份经历严重的洪水。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative drought analysis in Amasya and Merzifon with ZSI, PNI and NDI under transitional climatic conditions 过渡性气候条件下Amasya和Merzifon地区ZSI、PNI和NDI干旱对比分析
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-04-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101556
Utku Zeybekoglu
Drought is a recurring global problem characterised by multiple climatological and hydrological parameters, causing significant damage to both the natural environment and life. The onset of a drought is characterised by a meteorological drought, which is defined as a decrease in precipitation. The present study investigates the meteorological drought experienced by Amasya and Merzifon, which are located within the transition zone between the Black Sea and continental climates in Türkiye. The drought analysis utilised the ZSI, the PNI and the NDI which is a metric employed to quantify drought. Furthermore, the temporal trends of precipitation, temperature and drought values were investigated using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's Rho and Innovative Trend Analysis. The Drought Indices (DIs) identified significant dry years in 1964–1966, 1974–1975, 1981–1982, 1984, 1986, 1989–1990, 1994, 1999, 2001–2003, 2006–2007, 2011, 2013–2015, and 2017–2021. The assessment revealed that the ZSI, the PNI and NDI performed similarly in terms of identifying drought. The trend analysis results indicate a rising trend in precipitation and temperatures. While ZSI and PNI show an increasing trend, NDI also tends to decrease due to the effect of temperature. The results of both the drought and trend analyses suggest that temperature plays a more influential role in the regional climate compared to other meteorological parameters.The findings reveal the historical development of droughts in the region and their effects on the region's environment with different drought indices. The findings herein have the potential to provide a scientific foundation for the management of local drought conditions. It is posited that by implementing preventative measures and formulating suitable strategies, the likelihood of significant drought-related problems can be substantially mitigated.
干旱是一个反复出现的全球性问题,其特征是多种气候和水文参数,对自然环境和生命造成重大损害。干旱发生的特征是气象干旱,它被定义为降水减少。本研究调查了位于黑海和大陆性气候之间过渡区的Amasya和Merzifon所经历的气象干旱。干旱分析利用了ZSI, PNI和NDI,这是一种用于量化干旱的指标。利用Mann-Kendall、Spearman’s Rho和Innovative Trend Analysis分析了降水、温度和干旱值的时间变化趋势。干旱指数在1964-1966年、1974-1975年、1981-1982年、1984年、1986年、1989-1990年、1994年、1999年、2001-2003年、2006-2007年、2011年、2013-2015年和2017-2021年确定了显著干旱年份。评估显示,ZSI、PNI和NDI在识别干旱方面表现相似。趋势分析结果表明,降水和气温呈上升趋势。在ZSI和PNI呈上升趋势的同时,NDI受温度的影响也呈下降趋势。干旱和趋势分析的结果表明,与其他气象参数相比,温度对区域气候的影响更大。通过不同的干旱指数,揭示了该地区干旱的历史演变及其对该地区环境的影响。本文的发现有可能为当地干旱条件的管理提供科学基础。据推测,通过实施预防措施和制订适当的战略,可以大大减少与干旱有关的重大问题的可能性。
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting the differential impacts of Eastern‐Pacific and Central‐Pacific El Niño on late autumn to winter precipitation over South China 重新考察东太平洋和中太平洋El Niño对华南地区晚秋至冬季降水的差异影响
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101557
Lanyu Jia, Yongqing Guo
Although intensive studies examined the precipitation anomalies in China during the Eastern-Pacific (EP) and Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño, the impact of the CP El Niño event on winter precipitation in South China remains controversial. Besides, precipitation in South China peaks from late autumn to winter (November, December, and January, NDJ) during the winter half-year. These motivate us to revisit NDJ precipitation anomalies in South China during the EP and CP El Niño events. Results show that significantly increased precipitation is observed during both types of El Niño events. However, the spatial patterns and intensities of the precipitation anomalies differ. During the EP El Niño event, large positive precipitation anomalies appear throughout South China. In contrast, during the CP El Niño event, much smaller precipitation anomalies occur primarily in the southwest-to-northeast inland region of South China. These differences originate from the varying locations and intensities of warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific related to El Niño. The SST anomalies during the CP El Niño are located farther west and weaker than during the EP El Niño. A pair of an anomalous anticyclone east of or over the Philippine Islands and an anomalous cyclone northeast of South China connect these SST anomalies to precipitation in South China. We demonstrate that the correlations between CP El Niño and NDJ precipitation anomalies in South China vary remarkably across different periods. This may explain the source of controversy regarding the impact of the CP El Niño on precipitation in South China.
尽管对东太平洋(EP)和中太平洋(CP) El Niño期间中国降水异常进行了深入研究,但CP El Niño事件对华南冬季降水的影响仍存在争议。在冬季半年中,华南降水在深秋至冬季(NDJ的11月、12月和1月)达到高峰。这些促使我们重新审视EP和CP El Niño事件期间中国南方的NDJ降水异常。结果表明,两种El Niño事件均显著增加了降水。然而,降水异常的空间格局和强度存在差异。EP El Niño事件期间,华南地区出现了较大的正降水异常。CP El Niño事件期间,降水异常较小,主要出现在华南西南-东北内陆地区。这些差异源于赤道太平洋与El Niño有关的暖海表温度(SST)异常的不同位置和强度。CP El Niño期间的海温异常比EP El Niño期间的海温异常更偏西且更弱。菲律宾群岛以东或上空的一对异常反气旋和华南东北部的一对异常气旋将这些海温异常与华南降水联系起来。结果表明,CP El Niño与华南地区NDJ降水异常的相关性在不同时期存在显著差异。这可能解释了CP El Niño对华南降水影响的争议来源。
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引用次数: 0
Sea surface temperature and marine heatwave variability in interconnected basins: The Black-Marmara-Aegean Seas 海表温度和海洋热浪变化在相互联系的盆地:黑-马尔马拉-爱琴海
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101555
Şehriban Saçu , Olgay Şen , Tarkan Erdik , İzzet Öztürk
Sea surface temperature (SST) is a crucial parameter affecting marine ecosystems and has risen dramatically in recent decades due to climate change. This warming has led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of marine heatwave (MHW) events, prolonged periods of extreme SSTs, which have severe ecological consequences. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variability of SST and MHW characteristics across the interconnected Black, Marmara, and Aegean Seas using satellite-derived daily SST data from 1982 to 2021. Our findings indicate a significant SST increase across all three basins, with the most pronounced warming observed in the Black Sea, followed by the Marmara Sea. SST trends reach 0.8 °C/decade in the eastern Black Sea and 0.3 °C/decade in the Aegean Sea. Since the 2000s, SST warming has accelerated, with the long-term spatial mean trend of 0.57 °C/decade increasing to 0.68 °C/decade. This warming trend has driven a sharp increase in MHW frequency and duration, particularly in the last decade. The highest trend in MHW frequency is observed in the Marmara Sea, with an increase of 1.56 events/decade which further intensified after the 2000s. Beyond long-term trends, MHWs exhibit interannual variability, which correlates with the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) climate indices. Given the rising frequency and duration of MHW events, we also examined mucilage outbreaks in the Marmara Sea during 2007 and 2021. Our analysis suggests that mucilage blooms correspond to years with intense and prolonged MHW events, highlighting MHWs as a potential driver of mucilage formation.
海表温度(SST)是影响海洋生态系统的重要参数,近几十年来,由于气候变化,海表温度急剧上升。这种变暖导致海洋热浪(MHW)事件的频率和强度增加,极端海温的持续时间延长,这具有严重的生态后果。利用1982 - 2021年的卫星海温日资料,研究了连通的黑海、马尔马拉海和爱琴海的海温和海温的时空变化特征。我们的研究结果表明,所有三个盆地的海温都显著增加,其中黑海的变暖最为明显,其次是马尔马拉海。海温趋势在黑海东部达到0.8 °C/ 10年,在爱琴海达到0.3 °C/ 10年。2000年代以来,海温升温加速,长期空间平均趋势由0.57 °C/ 10年增加到0.68 °C/ 10年。这种变暖趋势推动了MHW频率和持续时间的急剧增加,特别是在过去十年中。马尔马拉海的海温频率变化趋势最大,增加了1.56次/ 10年,2000年代以后进一步加剧。除了长期趋势外,强强风还表现出年际变化,这与东大西洋(EA)和东大西洋/俄罗斯西部(EAWR)气候指数相关。鉴于MHW事件的频率和持续时间不断增加,我们还研究了2007年和2021年马尔马拉海的粘液暴发。我们的分析表明,黏液的大量繁殖与MHW事件强烈和持续的年份相对应,强调MHW是黏液形成的潜在驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Radiation partitioning in a cloud-rich tropical mountain rain forest of the S-Ecuadorian Andes for use in plot-based land surface modelling 南厄瓜多尔安第斯山脉云量丰富的热带山地雨林的辐射分区,用于基于地块的地表模拟
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101553
P. Grigusova , O. Limberger , C. Murkute , F. Pucha , V.H. González-Jaramillo , A. Fries , D. Windhorst , L. Breuer , M. Dantas de Paula , T. Hickler , K. Trachte , J. Bendix
Understanding the partitioning of downward shortwave radiation into direct and diffuse components is essential for modeling ecosystem energy fluxes. Accurate partitioning functions are critical for land surface models (LSMs) coupled with climate models, yet these functions often depend on regional cloud and aerosol conditions. While data for developing semi-empirical partitioning functions are abundant in mid-latitudes, their performance in tropical regions, particularly in the high Andes, remains poorly understood due to scarce ground-based measurements. This study analyzed a unique dataset of shortwave radiation components from a tropical mountain rainforest (MRF) in southern Ecuador, developing and testing a locally adapted partitioning function using Random Forest Regression. The model achieved high accuracy in predicting the percentage of diffuse radiation (%Dif; R2=0.95, RMSE = 5.33, MAE = 3.74) and absolute diffuse radiation (R2=0.99, RMSE = 5.30, MAE = 14). When applied to simulate upward shortwave radiation, the model outperformed commonly used partitioning functions achieving the lowest RMSE (8.62) and MAE (5.82) while matching the highest R2 (0.97). These results underscore the importance of regionally adapted radiation partitioning functions for improving LSM performance, particularly in complex tropical environments. The adapted LSM will be further utilized for studies on heat fluxes and carbon sequestration.
理解向下的短波辐射分为直接和漫射分量对模拟生态系统能量通量至关重要。准确的划分函数对于与气候模式相结合的陆地表面模式(lsm)至关重要,然而这些函数往往取决于区域云和气溶胶条件。虽然开发半经验分配函数的数据在中纬度地区丰富,但由于缺乏地面测量,它们在热带地区,特别是安第斯山脉高地区的表现仍然知之甚少。本研究分析了来自厄瓜多尔南部热带山地雨林(MRF)的独特短波辐射成分数据集,利用随机森林回归开发并测试了一个局部适应的分区函数。该模型在预测漫射辐射百分比(%Dif;R2=0.95, RMSE = 5.33, MAE = 3.74)和绝对漫射(R2=0.99, RMSE = 5.30, MAE = 14)。当应用该模型模拟向上短波辐射时,该模型优于常用的划分函数,达到最低RMSE(8.62)和MAE(5.82),并匹配最高R2(0.97)。这些结果强调了区域适应辐射分配函数对于改善LSM性能的重要性,特别是在复杂的热带环境中。改进后的LSM将进一步用于热通量和碳固存的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Interannual variations of mixed layer temperature and salinity in the South Indian Ocean salinity maxima region 南印度洋盐度最大值区混合层温度和盐度的年际变化
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101547
Madhu Kaundal , Mihir K. Dash , Jithendra Raju Nadimpalli
The study explores mixed layer temperature (MLT) and salinity (MLS) variability in the salinity maxima region present in the South Indian Ocean (SIO) on interannual time scale using ECCOv4r4 and Argo observations. It is observed that MLT and MLS are in tandem with surface heat flux and evaporation changes during the austral summer and winter seasons. Although the monthly evolution of high salinity in the SIO shows that the high salinity core is primarily located near 30° S, with notable seasonal variability south of 30° S. The region exhibits high interannual variability in MLT compared to MLS. Covariance and budget analysis show that net heat flux is the primary and significant component that contributes to the mixed-layer heat budget. However, changes in MLS are mainly attributed to meridional advection and entrainment. Furthermore, MLT variability is separated into two phases (I) 19922006, where the temperature is mostly below climatological value and (II) after 2007, the temperature is seen increasing with a hiatus-like signature from 20102015. During phase I, the MLT tendency is driven by meridional advection followed by net heat flux. However, in phase II, net heat flux mainly drives the temperature tendency, and meridional advection plays a secondary role. Whereas, salinity tendency is mainly driven by meridional advection. Further, in 19922006 period, downward Ekman pumping results from the strengthening of wind stress curl, led to the deepening of the mixed layer, while after 2006 MLD shoals due to weakening of wind stress curl. Additionally, during the second phase, the reduced meridional velocities in the mixed layer contribute to warming and salinification in the region.
利用ECCOv4r4和Argo观测资料,探讨了南印度洋(SIO)盐度最大值区混合层温度(MLT)和盐度(MLS)的年际时间尺度变化。在南方夏冬季节,MLT和MLS与地表热通量和蒸发变化呈串联关系。尽管SIO高盐度的月变化表明高盐度核心主要位于30°S附近,但在30°S以南有显著的季节变化,该区域的MLT年际变化比MLS高。协方差分析和收支分析表明,净热通量是影响混合层热收支的主要因素。然而,MLS的变化主要归因于经向平流和夹带。此外,MLT变率分为两个阶段(I) 1992—2006年,温度大多低于气候值;(II) 2007年以后,温度呈上升趋势,2010—2015年呈断续特征。在第1阶段,MLT趋势由经向平流驱动,然后是净热通量。而在第二阶段,净热通量主要驱动温度趋势,经向平流起次要作用。而盐度趋势主要由经向平流驱动。1992 ~ 2006年期间,由于风应力旋度的增强,向下的Ekman泵送导致混合层加深,而2006年以后,由于风应力旋度的减弱,MLD变浅。此外,在第二阶段,混合层经向速度的减少对该地区的增温和盐渍化有促进作用。
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引用次数: 0
Composite analysis of the rainfall distribution caused by strong and weak landfalling tropical cyclones over the China Mainland 强、弱登陆热带气旋对中国大陆降水分布的综合分析
IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101551
YAN Ling , ZHOU Yushu , WANG Shengzhen , WANG Mingming
Tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall in China from 2008 to 2016 were grouped into three clusters based on landfall location and movement. The first two clusters made landfall in Southeast China (SEC), moving either northward or westward/northwestward, while the third cluster made landfall in Southern China (SC) and moved westward or northwestward. A statistical analysis examined differences in precipitation distribution and influencing factors. This analysis utilized data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) tropical cyclone database, ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique) precipitation data, derived from both station observations and satellite retrievals. The findings reveal significant differences between strong (more intense than a tropical storm) and weak (less intense than a tropical storm) TCs in different clusters. Strong TCs in first cluster (SEC-strong) cause heavy rainfall areas to shift farther north, particularly in Jiangsu Province, with extreme rainfall occurring in the inner rainbands in a relatively symmetrical pattern. Conversely, rainfall from SEC-weak TCs is markedly asymmetric, concentrated in the inner regions and predominantly to the south of the middle rainbands. For SC-weak TCs, intense precipitation is primarily located in the southwest quadrant. Meanwhile, SC-strong TCs display a broader area of heavy rainfall, with coverage extending further west compared to SC-weak. A dynamic composite analysis of the primary weather systems influencing rainfall distribution before and after landfall was performed for SEC-strong, SEC-weak, SC-strong, and SC-weak TCs. This analysis highlighted significant differences in the positioning of the South Asian High (SAH), the intensity of vertical wind shear (VWS), and the characteristics of moisture convergence zones. Specifically, SEC-strong TCs exhibit a more robust water vapor transport channel, with easterly winds delivering moisture to the northern side of the TC center, compared to SEC-weak. Differences are also evident in their vertical structures, including variations in warm-core intensity, radial vertical motion, the asymmetric distribution of convergence and divergence fields, and instability conditions. Similarly, SC-strong and SC-weak TCs differ in the positioning of the 500 hPa subtropical high and the distribution of integrated atmospheric precipitable water (PW).
根据登陆位置和移动方向,将2008年至2016年在中国登陆的热带气旋(tc)分为三组。前两个集群在中国东南部(SEC)登陆,向北或向西/西北移动,而第三个集群在中国南方(SC)登陆,向西或西北移动。统计分析了降水分布和影响因素的差异。该分析利用了中国气象局(CMA)热带气旋数据库、ECMWF ERA-Interim再分析数据和CMORPH(气候预测中心变形技术)降水数据,这些数据来自气象站观测和卫星检索。研究结果揭示了不同集群中强(比热带风暴更强烈)和弱(比热带风暴更弱)tc之间的显著差异。第一簇强tc (SEC-strong)导致强雨区向北移动,特别是在江苏省,极端降雨以相对对称的模式发生在雨带内部。相反,来自sec -弱tc的降雨明显不对称,集中在内部区域,主要集中在中间雨带的南部。对于sc -弱tc,强降水主要位于西南象限。与此同时,sc -强tc的强降雨范围更广,覆盖范围比sc -弱tc向西延伸更远。对强sec、弱sec、强sc和弱sc台风登陆前后影响降雨分布的主要天气系统进行了动态综合分析。南亚高压(SAH)的位置、垂直风切变(VWS)的强度以及水汽辐合带的特征都存在显著差异。具体来说,与弱sec相比,强sec的TC表现出更强大的水汽输送通道,东风将水汽输送到TC中心的北侧。它们在垂直结构上的差异也很明显,包括暖核强度的变化、径向垂直运动、辐合场和发散场的不对称分布以及不稳定条件。同样,sc强tc和sc弱tc在500 hPa副热带高压的位置和大气综合可降水量(PW)的分布上也存在差异。
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引用次数: 0
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Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans
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