Accurately identifying ecological compensation (EC) regions and establishing clear compensation criteria are essential for promoting carbon sequestration, mitigating ecological degradation, and supporting equitable resource allocation. In this study, ecological modeling combined with hotspot analysis was applied to quantify the spatial mismatch between ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in 2020. We introduced the concept of comparative ecological radiation force (CERF) to characterize the spatial flow of ESs and to estimate the total compensation required to balance these flows. Our results highlight that the value of carbon sequestration, represented by net primary production (NPP), reached 1.21 × 10⁶ CNY, alongside other key services such as soil conservation (SC) (284.69 × 106 CNY), water yield (WY) (44.99 × 106 CNY) and food supply (FS) (20.81 × 106 CNY). The directional analysis of service flows revealed that NPP, along with SC and WY, predominantly flowed from east to west, while FS exhibited a north-to-south pattern. Notably, NPP received only 0.16% of the total ecological compensation, in contrast to 95.42% for SC, 4.21% for WY, and 0.21% for FS. This study provides an integrated framework for aligning EC strategies with carbon management goals, offering insights to support carbon neutrality efforts and ecosystem restoration on the TP.
{"title":"Reconciling ecosystem service supply-demand mismatches through ecological compensation in the Tibetan plateau","authors":"Wenjie Yao, Xiaofeng Wang, Zixu Jia, Xiaoxue Wang, Xinrong Zhang, Xiaoming Feng, Jitao Zhou, Jiahao Ma, You Tu, Xueren Liu, Zechong Sun","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00325-0","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00325-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Accurately identifying ecological compensation (EC) regions and establishing clear compensation criteria are essential for promoting carbon sequestration, mitigating ecological degradation, and supporting equitable resource allocation. In this study, ecological modeling combined with hotspot analysis was applied to quantify the spatial mismatch between ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in 2020. We introduced the concept of comparative ecological radiation force (CERF) to characterize the spatial flow of ESs and to estimate the total compensation required to balance these flows. Our results highlight that the value of carbon sequestration, represented by net primary production (NPP), reached 1.21 × 10⁶ CNY, alongside other key services such as soil conservation (SC) (284.69 × 10<sup>6</sup> CNY), water yield (WY) (44.99 × 10<sup>6</sup> CNY) and food supply (FS) (20.81 × 10<sup>6</sup> CNY). The directional analysis of service flows revealed that NPP, along with SC and WY, predominantly flowed from east to west, while FS exhibited a north-to-south pattern. Notably, NPP received only 0.16% of the total ecological compensation, in contrast to 95.42% for SC, 4.21% for WY, and 0.21% for FS. This study provides an integrated framework for aligning EC strategies with carbon management goals, offering insights to support carbon neutrality efforts and ecosystem restoration on the TP.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00325-0","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-14DOI: 10.1186/s13021-025-00323-2
Loretta G. Garrett, Katherine A. Heckman, Angela R. Possinger, Brian D. Strahm, Jeff A. Hatten, Fiona P. Fields, Steve A. Wakelin
Background
Forest soils are a globally significant carbon-store, including in deep layers (> 30 cm depth). However, there is high uncertainty regarding the response of deep soil organic carbon (DSOC) to climate change and the resulting impact on the total OC budget for forest ecosystems. Managed forests have an opportunity to reduce the risk of DSOC loss with climate change, however, the basic understanding of DSOC is lacking. Planted forests in New Zealand are managed with very limited knowledge of DSOC, both in the amount and the capacity of the soil to continue to store carbon with climate change. In this study, we explore DSOC stocks to at least 2 m depth at 15 planted forest sties in New Zealand. We also explore DSOC radiocarbon age and soil mineralogy, then contextualise our results within international SOC datasets and climate change vulnerability frameworks to identify research priorities for New Zealand’s planted forest soils.
Results
DSOC stocks and soil mineralogy in New Zealand’s planted forests were diverse both horizontally across soil types and vertically throughout the soil profile. Critically, limiting measurements of SOC to the top 30 cm misses more than half of the SOC stocks present to at least 2 m depth (mean 57%; range 33–72%). At depth, mineral-associated OC was the dominant fraction of DSOC (average > 90%) and was on average much older (> 1000 years) than the current planted forest land use (< 100 years).
Conclusions
This small case study highlights that New Zealand’s planted forests contain substantial stocks of DSOC, much of which is older than the current forest land use. The deep soils were dominated by reactive metals, and although the age of DSOC suggest long-term stability, the large contribution of reactive metal-mediated SOC stabilisation may indicate vulnerability to warming soil temperatures relative to other climate change factors. There is a pressing need to expand soil sampling to greater depths and establish a robust SOC baseline for New Zealand’s planted forests. This is essential for enabling spatial predictions of DSOC dynamics under future climate scenarios, identify the key controls on DSOC persistence, and concomitant impacts on forest ecosystem function and resilience.
{"title":"Lifting the profile of deep soil carbon in New Zealand’s managed planted forests","authors":"Loretta G. Garrett, Katherine A. Heckman, Angela R. Possinger, Brian D. Strahm, Jeff A. Hatten, Fiona P. Fields, Steve A. Wakelin","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00323-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00323-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Forest soils are a globally significant carbon-store, including in deep layers (> 30 cm depth). However, there is high uncertainty regarding the response of deep soil organic carbon (DSOC) to climate change and the resulting impact on the total OC budget for forest ecosystems. Managed forests have an opportunity to reduce the risk of DSOC loss with climate change, however, the basic understanding of DSOC is lacking. Planted forests in New Zealand are managed with very limited knowledge of DSOC, both in the amount and the capacity of the soil to continue to store carbon with climate change. In this study, we explore DSOC stocks to at least 2 m depth at 15 planted forest sties in New Zealand. We also explore DSOC radiocarbon age and soil mineralogy, then contextualise our results within international SOC datasets and climate change vulnerability frameworks to identify research priorities for New Zealand’s planted forest soils.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>DSOC stocks and soil mineralogy in New Zealand’s planted forests were diverse both horizontally across soil types and vertically throughout the soil profile. Critically, limiting measurements of SOC to the top 30 cm misses more than half of the SOC stocks present to at least 2 m depth (mean 57%; range 33–72%). At depth, mineral-associated OC was the dominant fraction of DSOC (average > 90%) and was on average much older (> 1000 years) than the current planted forest land use (< 100 years).</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>This small case study highlights that New Zealand’s planted forests contain substantial stocks of DSOC, much of which is older than the current forest land use. The deep soils were dominated by reactive metals, and although the age of DSOC suggest long-term stability, the large contribution of reactive metal-mediated SOC stabilisation may indicate vulnerability to warming soil temperatures relative to other climate change factors. There is a pressing need to expand soil sampling to greater depths and establish a robust SOC baseline for New Zealand’s planted forests. This is essential for enabling spatial predictions of DSOC dynamics under future climate scenarios, identify the key controls on DSOC persistence, and concomitant impacts on forest ecosystem function and resilience.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00323-2","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144832103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-13DOI: 10.1186/s13021-025-00317-0
Jing Liu, Jianing Zhang, Dengfeng Cui
Background
In the context of mitigating global warming and promoting sustainable development, the scientific and effective assessment of the global carbon total factor productivity (CTFP) is essential for slowing global warming and fostering green transformation and coordinated development at both the global and regional levels.
Methods
This study constructs a CTFP evaluation index system and, for the first time, employs the SBM-DDF-GML productivity index model to measure the CTFP of 137 countries worldwide from 1991 to 2019. This model combines a directional distance function with the global Malmquist–Luenberger index to achieve precision in efficiency measurement and intertemporal comparability. It effectively resolves the problems of estimation bias and time dimension inconsistency caused by the radial assumption in traditional radial models. The spatial characteristics, regional disparities, and sources of these disparities in the CTFP are examined using ArcGIS and the Dagum Gini coefficient method. The σ-convergence and β-convergence models are used to investigate the influencing factors and convergence characteristics of the CTFP.
Results
The findings reveal that (1) the global CTFP exhibited an overall upward trend with fluctuations over the sample period, with technological progress being the primary driving force. (2) There are significant gradient disparities in the global CTFP, primarily stemming from supervariable density, followed by intraregional and interregional differences, and these disparities are expanding. (3) While there is no evident σ-convergence in the global CTFP and CTFP of the four major regions, there are significant absolute and conditional β-convergence trends.
Conclusion
Based on the research results, this paper proposes specific strategies to promote the global development of CTFP. These include strengthening technology R&D to improve CTFP, encouraging regional convergence to reduce development disparities, and enhancing the dynamic monitoring and evaluation system to foster growth and equity. This study provides empirical support and a decision-making basis for the coordinated development of the global economy and environment, contributing to advancing global green, low-carbon, and sustainable development.
{"title":"Decarbonization process and productivity convergence: a global analysis of carbon total factor productivity","authors":"Jing Liu, Jianing Zhang, Dengfeng Cui","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00317-0","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00317-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>In the context of mitigating global warming and promoting sustainable development, the scientific and effective assessment of the global carbon total factor productivity (CTFP) is essential for slowing global warming and fostering green transformation and coordinated development at both the global and regional levels.</p><h3>Methods</h3><p>This study constructs a CTFP evaluation index system and, for the first time, employs the SBM-DDF-GML productivity index model to measure the CTFP of 137 countries worldwide from 1991 to 2019. This model combines a directional distance function with the global Malmquist–Luenberger index to achieve precision in efficiency measurement and intertemporal comparability. It effectively resolves the problems of estimation bias and time dimension inconsistency caused by the radial assumption in traditional radial models. The spatial characteristics, regional disparities, and sources of these disparities in the CTFP are examined using ArcGIS and the Dagum Gini coefficient method. The <i>σ</i>-convergence and <i>β</i>-convergence models are used to investigate the influencing factors and convergence characteristics of the CTFP.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>The findings reveal that (1) the global CTFP exhibited an overall upward trend with fluctuations over the sample period, with technological progress being the primary driving force. (2) There are significant gradient disparities in the global CTFP, primarily stemming from supervariable density, followed by intraregional and interregional differences, and these disparities are expanding. (3) While there is no evident <i>σ</i>-convergence in the global CTFP and CTFP of the four major regions, there are significant absolute and conditional <i>β</i>-convergence trends.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Based on the research results, this paper proposes specific strategies to promote the global development of CTFP. These include strengthening technology R&D to improve CTFP, encouraging regional convergence to reduce development disparities, and enhancing the dynamic monitoring and evaluation system to foster growth and equity. This study provides empirical support and a decision-making basis for the coordinated development of the global economy and environment, contributing to advancing global green, low-carbon, and sustainable development.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13021-025-00317-0","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144832205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-08DOI: 10.1186/s13021-025-00309-0
Declan Johnson, Jimmy Voorhis, Stephen Porder
AbstractSection Background
Climate change, fire suppression, and human encroachment contribute to increasingly intense forest fires in the Western United States, releasing hundreds of millions of metric tons (MMT) CO2/year. Proactive fire-risk reduction treatments coordinated by the US Forest Service (USFS) typically include thinning and burning (or in situ decay) of thinned products and may require thinning on ~ 28 million hectares of public and private land over the next decade. Assuming thinning of only small (~ 30 cm diameter) trees within 0.8 km of existing roads on slopes gentler than a 40% grade, this will produce ~ 1,100 MMT of thinned wood, which, if burned or left to decay, will release ~ 2000 MMT CO2. Here we evaluate the life cycle emissions of an alternative fate, burial in anoxic wood vaults. We performed a life cycle analysis (LCA) to assess potential net emissions reductions, considering site clearing, transport, site preparation and post-burial decay. We used Monte-Carlo simulations to estimate emissions uncertainty and identify key parameters influencing carbon removal efficiency.
AbstractSection Results
We find wood vaults will decrease emissions relative to current practice by a mean of 66% if wood is transported 100 km, and by 38% at a transport distance of 500 km. If the USFS is able to implement the proposed Wildfire Crisis Strategy, and all of the wood from thinning were buried in wood vaults within 100–500 km of the thinning sites, our results suggest these vaults would thus sequester between ~ 40–140 MMT CO2/yr over a decade. This annual figure represents ~ 6–12% of 2021 energy-related emissions in the contiguous Western United States. Harvesting thinned products only from gentler (< 20%) slopes within shorter distances from roads (304 m) would result in a greenhouse gas savings equivalent to 3–6% of 2021 Western State emissions. However, these results depend heavily on parameters related to wood decay and post-decay methane emissions that are relatively poorly constrained.
AbstractSection Conclusions
These results suggest wood vaults are a promising emissions-reduction strategy, but challenges remain. It is not clear that the USFS has the resources to manage the additional ~ 20 million hectares targeted for forest thinning. Biogeochemically, the importance of rates of wood decay within the vault, and the fraction of methane generated that escapes the vault, are poorly constrained parameters. Their estimation will be important for narrowing uncertainty in estimates of life cycle emissions. Nevertheless, our analysis suggests wood vaults are a promising, low-tech, ready-to-deploy emissions reduction strategy in places where forest management incl
{"title":"Life cycle emissions associated with vault storage of wood cleared for fire management in the Western United States","authors":"Declan Johnson, Jimmy Voorhis, Stephen Porder","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00309-0","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00309-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <span>AbstractSection</span>\u0000 Background\u0000 <p>Climate change, fire suppression, and human encroachment contribute to increasingly intense forest fires in the Western United States, releasing hundreds of millions of metric tons (MMT) CO<sub>2</sub>/year. Proactive fire-risk reduction treatments coordinated by the US Forest Service (USFS) typically include thinning and burning (or in situ decay) of thinned products and may require thinning on ~ 28 million hectares of public and private land over the next decade. Assuming thinning of only small (~ 30 cm diameter) trees within 0.8 km of existing roads on slopes gentler than a 40% grade, this will produce ~ 1,100 MMT of thinned wood, which, if burned or left to decay, will release ~ 2000 MMT CO<sub>2</sub>. Here we evaluate the life cycle emissions of an alternative fate, burial in anoxic wood vaults. We performed a life cycle analysis (LCA) to assess potential net emissions reductions, considering site clearing, transport, site preparation and post-burial decay. We used Monte-Carlo simulations to estimate emissions uncertainty and identify key parameters influencing carbon removal efficiency.</p>\u0000 \u0000 <span>AbstractSection</span>\u0000 Results\u0000 <p>We find wood vaults will decrease emissions relative to current practice by a mean of 66% if wood is transported 100 km, and by 38% at a transport distance of 500 km. If the USFS is able to implement the proposed Wildfire Crisis Strategy, and all of the wood from thinning were buried in wood vaults within 100–500 km of the thinning sites, our results suggest these vaults would thus sequester between ~ 40–140 MMT CO<sub>2</sub>/yr over a decade. This annual figure represents ~ 6–12% of 2021 energy-related emissions in the contiguous Western United States. Harvesting thinned products only from gentler (< 20%) slopes within shorter distances from roads (304 m) would result in a greenhouse gas savings equivalent to 3–6% of 2021 Western State emissions. However, these results depend heavily on parameters related to wood decay and post-decay methane emissions that are relatively poorly constrained.</p>\u0000 \u0000 <span>AbstractSection</span>\u0000 Conclusions\u0000 <p>These results suggest wood vaults are a promising emissions-reduction strategy, but challenges remain. It is not clear that the USFS has the resources to manage the additional ~ 20 million hectares targeted for forest thinning. Biogeochemically, the importance of rates of wood decay within the vault, and the fraction of methane generated that escapes the vault, are poorly constrained parameters. Their estimation will be important for narrowing uncertainty in estimates of life cycle emissions. Nevertheless, our analysis suggests wood vaults are a promising, low-tech, ready-to-deploy emissions reduction strategy in places where forest management incl","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12335127/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144797791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-07DOI: 10.1186/s13021-025-00316-1
Samuel Gameiro, Manuel Eduardo Ferreira, Luis Fernando Chimelo Ruiz, Gillian L. Galford, Mojtaba Zeraatpisheh, Victor Fernandez Nascimento, Rosane Garcia Collevatti
Background
Understanding carbon dynamics in Earth’s ecosystem is necessary for mitigating climate change. With recent advancements in technologies, it is important to understand both how carbon quantification in soil and vegetation is measured and how it can be improved. Therefore, this study conducted a bibliometric and bibliographic review of the most common carbon quantification methodologies.
Results
Among the most widely used techniques, the Walkley-Black method and Elemental Analysis stand out for measuring below-ground carbon, while forest inventories are prominent for assessing above-ground carbon. Additionally, we found that the United States and China have the largest number of publications on this topic, with forest and agricultural areas being the most studied, followed by grasslands and mangroves. However, it should be noted that despite being indirect techniques, remote sensing, regression analysis, and machine learning have increasingly been used to generate geo-environmental carbon models for various areas. Landsat satellite images are the most widely used in remote sensing, followed by LiDAR digital models.
Conclusions
These results demonstrate that while new technologies do yet not replace analytical techniques, they are valuable allies working in conjunction with the current carbon quantification process.
{"title":"Quantifying terrestrial carbon in the context of climate change: a review of common and novel technologies and methods","authors":"Samuel Gameiro, Manuel Eduardo Ferreira, Luis Fernando Chimelo Ruiz, Gillian L. Galford, Mojtaba Zeraatpisheh, Victor Fernandez Nascimento, Rosane Garcia Collevatti","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00316-1","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00316-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Understanding carbon dynamics in Earth’s ecosystem is necessary for mitigating climate change. With recent advancements in technologies, it is important to understand both how carbon quantification in soil and vegetation is measured and how it can be improved. Therefore, this study conducted a bibliometric and bibliographic review of the most common carbon quantification methodologies.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>Among the most widely used techniques, the Walkley-Black method and Elemental Analysis stand out for measuring below-ground carbon, while forest inventories are prominent for assessing above-ground carbon. Additionally, we found that the United States and China have the largest number of publications on this topic, with forest and agricultural areas being the most studied, followed by grasslands and mangroves. However, it should be noted that despite being indirect techniques, remote sensing, regression analysis, and machine learning have increasingly been used to generate geo-environmental carbon models for various areas. Landsat satellite images are the most widely used in remote sensing, followed by LiDAR digital models.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>These results demonstrate that while new technologies do yet not replace analytical techniques, they are valuable allies working in conjunction with the current carbon quantification process.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12330144/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144793189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-30DOI: 10.1186/s13021-025-00315-2
Minghong Peng, Ye Yang, Yuanjie Deng, Dingdi Jize, Hang Chen, Yifeng Hai, Guojie Liu, Haijun Wang, Tianhui Xie, Hu Li, Ji Luo
Alterations in land use and land cover (LUCC) play a fundamental role in influencing the variability of ecosystem carbon storage. Evaluating how land use dynamics affect carbon sequestration and projecting future carbon storage scenarios are essential steps toward meeting China’s dual carbon objectives. In this study, we integrated the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) framework to investigate LUCC dynamics and their implications for carbon storage across the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) between 2000 and 2020. Furthermore, projections of regional carbon storage were made under multiple Grain-for-Green Programme (GFGP) scenarios extending to the year 2040. Our findings indicated that cultivated land (CL), forest land (FL), and grassland (GL) consistently dominated land use composition within the UYRB, collectively occupying approximately 96.45% of the total area throughout 2000–2020. During this period, construction land (CSL) steadily expanded, primarily at the expense of CL. Both CL and GL experienced substantial reductions. Spatially, carbon storage exhibited a decreasing gradient from east to west, with the Jinsha River Basin exhibiting the greatest levels. Carbon storage values over the two decades were recorded at 6.387 × 10¹⁰ t in 2000, 6.382 × 10¹⁰ t in 2005, 6.379 × 10¹⁰ t in 2010, 6.369 × 10¹⁰ t in 2015, and 6.373 × 10¹⁰ t in 2020. Despite a slight recovery between 2015 and 2020, total carbon storage fell by 0.23% (1.438 × 108 t) overall. This decline was primarily driven by the conversion of high-carbon-density CL and FL into low-carbon-density CSL and GL. Future projections show distinct disparities across four policy scenarios by 2040. Under the Natural Development Scenario (NDS), rapid economic growth and land conversion are projected to result in a carbon storage loss of 1.324 × 108 t. Conversely, the mild, moderate, and strong GFGPS anticipate carbon storage increases of 1.385 × 10⁸ t, 3.157 × 10⁸ t, and 5.136 × 10⁸ t, respectively. The Jialing River Basin shows the highest gains under all GFGPS. Our findings underscore the significance of the GFGP in enhancing regional carbon sequestration, primarily through encouraging afforestation of previously CL and GL and curbing the expansion of CSL. Such insights can guide land-use planning and ecological conservation strategies in the UYRB moving forward.
{"title":"The impact of the Grain-for-Green Programme on carbon storage in the Upper Yangtze River Basin based on the PLUS-InVEST model","authors":"Minghong Peng, Ye Yang, Yuanjie Deng, Dingdi Jize, Hang Chen, Yifeng Hai, Guojie Liu, Haijun Wang, Tianhui Xie, Hu Li, Ji Luo","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00315-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00315-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Alterations in land use and land cover (LUCC) play a fundamental role in influencing the variability of ecosystem carbon storage. Evaluating how land use dynamics affect carbon sequestration and projecting future carbon storage scenarios are essential steps toward meeting China’s dual carbon objectives. In this study, we integrated the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) framework to investigate LUCC dynamics and their implications for carbon storage across the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) between 2000 and 2020. Furthermore, projections of regional carbon storage were made under multiple Grain-for-Green Programme (GFGP) scenarios extending to the year 2040. Our findings indicated that cultivated land (CL), forest land (FL), and grassland (GL) consistently dominated land use composition within the UYRB, collectively occupying approximately 96.45% of the total area throughout 2000–2020. During this period, construction land (CSL) steadily expanded, primarily at the expense of CL. Both CL and GL experienced substantial reductions. Spatially, carbon storage exhibited a decreasing gradient from east to west, with the Jinsha River Basin exhibiting the greatest levels. Carbon storage values over the two decades were recorded at 6.387 × 10¹⁰ t in 2000, 6.382 × 10¹⁰ t in 2005, 6.379 × 10¹⁰ t in 2010, 6.369 × 10¹⁰ t in 2015, and 6.373 × 10¹⁰ t in 2020. Despite a slight recovery between 2015 and 2020, total carbon storage fell by 0.23% (1.438 × 10<sup>8</sup> t) overall. This decline was primarily driven by the conversion of high-carbon-density CL and FL into low-carbon-density CSL and GL. Future projections show distinct disparities across four policy scenarios by 2040. Under the Natural Development Scenario (NDS), rapid economic growth and land conversion are projected to result in a carbon storage loss of 1.324 × 10<sup>8</sup> t. Conversely, the mild, moderate, and strong GFGPS anticipate carbon storage increases of 1.385 × 10⁸ t, 3.157 × 10⁸ t, and 5.136 × 10⁸ t, respectively. The Jialing River Basin shows the highest gains under all GFGPS. Our findings underscore the significance of the GFGP in enhancing regional carbon sequestration, primarily through encouraging afforestation of previously CL and GL and curbing the expansion of CSL. Such insights can guide land-use planning and ecological conservation strategies in the UYRB moving forward.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12312590/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144751989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-18DOI: 10.1186/s13021-025-00314-3
Weiyi Sun, Jiaxi Liu, Xianzhao Liu, Tianhao Wang
Background
Global climate change, marked by persistent warming trends, has emerged as one of the foremost challenges confronting human society in the 21st century. Systematically promoting carbon peak and neutrality has become a critical priority for governments in China. As the most active urbanization region in the country, metropolitan areas assume a pivotal leadership and exemplary role in executing carbon peak and neutrality initiatives. Consequently, we focus our research on the Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Area (CMA). The STIRPAT and CA-Markov models are employed to forecast carbon sinks and carbon emissions under various scenarios in 2030 and 2060, respectively, to explore pathways to carbon neutrality under various conditions.
Results
The findings indicate that the carbon surplus and deficit (CSD) values have consistently been negative from 2000 to 2020, signifying a persistent carbon deficit in the region, which has exhibited an upward trend. Notably, the CSD in Yuelu, Ningxiang, and Changsha experienced the most significant increases, particularly in Yuelu, where it reached − 11.22 × 106 t by 2020. Depending on the combinations of scenarios, the CSD values are anticipated to range from − 130.75 × 106 t to − 98.22 × 106 t in 2030, and from − 63.28 × 106 t to − 21.22 × 106 t in 2060. Furthermore, the carbon emissions under different scenarios are projected to reach peaks in 2030, with a maximum of 66.54 × 106 t in 2060.
Conclusions
The prediction results of carbon neutrality in the CMA indicate that carbon emission is expected to reach peaks before 2030 across various scenarios. However, carbon emissions will significantly exceed the carbon sink capacity by 2060, and there is still a carbon emission gap of at least 2122.44 × 104 t from achieving carbon neutrality, highlighting the necessity of accelerating emission reduction in the industrial and energy sectors. Consequently, the critical challenge to achieve carbon neutrality lies in the substantial reduction of carbon emissions.
{"title":"Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of carbon surplus and deficit under the background of carbon neutrality: a case study of Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area in China","authors":"Weiyi Sun, Jiaxi Liu, Xianzhao Liu, Tianhao Wang","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00314-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00314-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Global climate change, marked by persistent warming trends, has emerged as one of the foremost challenges confronting human society in the 21st century. Systematically promoting carbon peak and neutrality has become a critical priority for governments in China. As the most active urbanization region in the country, metropolitan areas assume a pivotal leadership and exemplary role in executing carbon peak and neutrality initiatives. Consequently, we focus our research on the Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Area (CMA). The STIRPAT and CA-Markov models are employed to forecast carbon sinks and carbon emissions under various scenarios in 2030 and 2060, respectively, to explore pathways to carbon neutrality under various conditions.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>The findings indicate that the carbon surplus and deficit (CSD) values have consistently been negative from 2000 to 2020, signifying a persistent carbon deficit in the region, which has exhibited an upward trend. Notably, the CSD in Yuelu, Ningxiang, and Changsha experienced the most significant increases, particularly in Yuelu, where it reached − 11.22 × 10<sup>6</sup> t by 2020. Depending on the combinations of scenarios, the CSD values are anticipated to range from − 130.75 × 10<sup>6</sup> t to − 98.22 × 10<sup>6</sup> t in 2030, and from − 63.28 × 10<sup>6</sup> t to − 21.22 × 10<sup>6</sup> t in 2060. Furthermore, the carbon emissions under different scenarios are projected to reach peaks in 2030, with a maximum of 66.54 × 10<sup>6</sup> t in 2060.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>The prediction results of carbon neutrality in the CMA indicate that carbon emission is expected to reach peaks before 2030 across various scenarios. However, carbon emissions will significantly exceed the carbon sink capacity by 2060, and there is still a carbon emission gap of at least 2122.44 × 10<sup>4</sup> t from achieving carbon neutrality, highlighting the necessity of accelerating emission reduction in the industrial and energy sectors. Consequently, the critical challenge to achieve carbon neutrality lies in the substantial reduction of carbon emissions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12275343/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144666769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-05DOI: 10.1186/s13021-025-00311-6
Yayun Ren, Xiaohang Xu, Yantuan Yu, Zhenhua Zhang
Addressing the carbon co-benefits of policy tools requires simultaneous improvements in both the quantity and quality of carbon abatement to achieve long-term sustainability and equity. Driven by digital technologies and bolstered by green capital, the combination of the digital economy and green finance (DEGF) establishes an effective mechanism for attaining sustainable development goals. Treating the coordinated implementation of the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones (NBDCPZ) and Green Finance Reform and Innovation Pilot Zones (GFRIPZ) policies in China as a quasi-natural experiment, we identify the carbon co-benefits of DEGF using the Synthetic Control Method with penalized regression technique. Empirical findings show that DEGF significantly promotes simultaneous improvements in both the quantity and quality of carbon mitigation. These findings are robust across various validation tests, including time-placebo test, alternative model specification, and double machine learning algorithms. According to mechanisms analysis, improving green technological innovation and human capital level are the main channels that DEGF produces carbon co-benefits. The study provides China and other emerging economies seeking to promote sustainable development through digital-green integration with policy-relevant implications.
{"title":"Carbon co-benefits of digital economy and green finance: empirical evidence from China","authors":"Yayun Ren, Xiaohang Xu, Yantuan Yu, Zhenhua Zhang","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00311-6","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00311-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Addressing the carbon co-benefits of policy tools requires simultaneous improvements in both the quantity and quality of carbon abatement to achieve long-term sustainability and equity. Driven by digital technologies and bolstered by green capital, the combination of the digital economy and green finance (DEGF) establishes an effective mechanism for attaining sustainable development goals. Treating the coordinated implementation of the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones (NBDCPZ) and Green Finance Reform and Innovation Pilot Zones (GFRIPZ) policies in China as a quasi-natural experiment, we identify the carbon co-benefits of DEGF using the Synthetic Control Method with penalized regression technique. Empirical findings show that DEGF significantly promotes simultaneous improvements in both the quantity and quality of carbon mitigation. These findings are robust across various validation tests, including time-placebo test, alternative model specification, and double machine learning algorithms. According to mechanisms analysis, improving green technological innovation and human capital level are the main channels that DEGF produces carbon co-benefits. The study provides China and other emerging economies seeking to promote sustainable development through digital-green integration with policy-relevant implications.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12228155/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144566908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-04DOI: 10.1186/s13021-025-00312-5
Linjiao Wang, Xiang Gao, Maoyin Sheng
Background
Phytolith-occluded organic carbon (PhytOC) is an important mechanism of long-term stable carbon sinks in terrestrial ecosystems. Farmland abandonment is a widespread land use change in the process of urbanization and industrialization and is still ongoing. Farmland abandonment can significantly affect soil carbon cycling. To elucidate the effects of farmland abandonment on soil PhytOC accumulation, in the present study, corn fields abandoned for 0 to 30 years ago in the mountainous areas of southern China were selected as the research objects. The change trends, influencing factors, and driving mechanisms of soil PhytOC accumulation during the abandonment process were studied.
Results
The following results were obtained: (1) The range of PhytOC content and storage of the 0–15 cm soil profile for both active and abandoned corn fields was 0.39–1.49 g·kg− 1 and 0.27–0.83 t·hm− 2, respectively. (2) There was a notable enhancement in soil PhytOC accumulation as the duration of abandonment lengthened. In particular, after 30 years of abandonment, soil PhytOC accumulation rose significantly. (3) Abandonment noticeably altered the contents and ratios of soil nutrients of C, N, P and Si, along with key soil enzyme activities such as urease, sucrase, alkaline phosphatase, and catalase. (4) In the context of corn field abandonment, increase in soil PhytOC was primarily attributed to modifications in PhytOC inputs due to variations in surface vegetation cover. The impact of soil environment alterations resulting from abandonment on PhytOC decomposition was less pronounced.
Conclusions
These findings are instrumental for accurately assessing the carbon sequestration potential of farmland abandonment and for developing regional carbon management strategies based on such practices.
{"title":"Long-term farmland abandonments remarkably increased the phytolith carbon sequestration in soil","authors":"Linjiao Wang, Xiang Gao, Maoyin Sheng","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00312-5","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00312-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Phytolith<b>-</b>occluded organic carbon (PhytOC) is an important mechanism of long-term stable carbon sinks in terrestrial ecosystems. Farmland abandonment is a widespread land use change in the process of urbanization and industrialization and is still ongoing. Farmland abandonment can significantly affect soil carbon cycling. To elucidate the effects of farmland abandonment on soil PhytOC accumulation, in the present study, corn fields abandoned for 0 to 30 years ago in the mountainous areas of southern China were selected as the research objects. The change trends, influencing factors, and driving mechanisms of soil PhytOC accumulation during the abandonment process were studied.</p><h3>Results</h3><p>The following results were obtained: (1) The range of PhytOC content and storage of the 0–15 cm soil profile for both active and abandoned corn fields was 0.39–1.49 g·kg<sup>− 1</sup> and 0.27–0.83 t·hm<sup>− 2</sup>, respectively. (2) There was a notable enhancement in soil PhytOC accumulation as the duration of abandonment lengthened. In particular, after 30 years of abandonment, soil PhytOC accumulation rose significantly. (3) Abandonment noticeably altered the contents and ratios of soil nutrients of C, N, P and Si, along with key soil enzyme activities such as urease, sucrase, alkaline phosphatase, and catalase. (4) In the context of corn field abandonment, increase in soil PhytOC was primarily attributed to modifications in PhytOC inputs due to variations in surface vegetation cover. The impact of soil environment alterations resulting from abandonment on PhytOC decomposition was less pronounced.</p><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>These findings are instrumental for accurately assessing the carbon sequestration potential of farmland abandonment and for developing regional carbon management strategies based on such practices.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12231618/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144558691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-03DOI: 10.1186/s13021-025-00310-7
Yuxin Zhang, Yao Zhang, Wei Chen, Yongjian Zhang, Jing Quan
Urban areas are pivotal contributors to carbon emissions, and achieving carbon peaking at the urban level is crucial for meeting national carbon reduction targets. This study estimates the carbon emissions and intensity changes of 19 cities from 2000 to 2023 using urban statistical data. By employing the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, the driving factors of carbon emissions across these cities are analyzed. Additionally, a multi-scenario prediction approach is utilized to forecast the timing of carbon peaking and trends in carbon emission intensity under various scenarios. The findings reveal that, during the study period, carbon emissions exhibited an overall upward trend, while carbon emission intensity demonstrated a year-by-year decline. The population effect and per capita GDP effect were identified as significant drivers of urban carbon emissions during urban development. Conversely, reducing energy intensity and the carbon intensity of energy consumption can effectively curb the growth of carbon emissions. Under the low-carbon scenario, all cities are projected to achieve carbon peaking before 2030. In the baseline scenario, the vast majority of cities (89.47%) are expected to reach carbon peaking before 2030. However, under the high-carbon scenario, only 63.16% of cities are anticipated to achieve carbon peaking by the same deadline.
{"title":"Decomposition of driving factors and peak prediction of carbon emissions in key cities in China","authors":"Yuxin Zhang, Yao Zhang, Wei Chen, Yongjian Zhang, Jing Quan","doi":"10.1186/s13021-025-00310-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s13021-025-00310-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban areas are pivotal contributors to carbon emissions, and achieving carbon peaking at the urban level is crucial for meeting national carbon reduction targets. This study estimates the carbon emissions and intensity changes of 19 cities from 2000 to 2023 using urban statistical data. By employing the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, the driving factors of carbon emissions across these cities are analyzed. Additionally, a multi-scenario prediction approach is utilized to forecast the timing of carbon peaking and trends in carbon emission intensity under various scenarios. The findings reveal that, during the study period, carbon emissions exhibited an overall upward trend, while carbon emission intensity demonstrated a year-by-year decline. The population effect and per capita GDP effect were identified as significant drivers of urban carbon emissions during urban development. Conversely, reducing energy intensity and the carbon intensity of energy consumption can effectively curb the growth of carbon emissions. Under the low-carbon scenario, all cities are projected to achieve carbon peaking before 2030. In the baseline scenario, the vast majority of cities (89.47%) are expected to reach carbon peaking before 2030. However, under the high-carbon scenario, only 63.16% of cities are anticipated to achieve carbon peaking by the same deadline.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":505,"journal":{"name":"Carbon Balance and Management","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12225531/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144551603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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