Pub Date : 2019-10-02DOI: 10.1080/10286608.2019.1702029
Roger Flage
ABSTRACT Environmental risk assessments are routinely carried out in the Norwegian petroleum industry. As this industry is moving north, towards the Arctic and into areas with differing vulnerabilities and new risk sources compared to the now well-developed areas, previous operational experience and analytical practice may become less relevant. Reflecting the lack of knowledge (i.e. the uncertainty) that exists, and the strength of the available knowledge, then becomes critical. In the present paper, we review and discuss the industry guideline that for a long time has formed the methodological basis for these assessments, focusing on its foundation concerning risk and uncertainty. We conclude that there is a potential for improvement, and to contribute to improving the guideline, we describe how to implement – in the context of environmental risk assessment – a framework for conceptualising risk and its description that is consistent with the new uncertainty-based risk perspective recently adopted by the Petroleum Safety Authority Norway and in the Society for Risk Analysis glossary. The implementation includes a description and exemplification of a method for assessing the bias of uncertain risk assessment assumptions.
{"title":"Implementing an uncertainty-based risk conceptualisation in the context of environmental risk assessment, with emphasis on the bias of uncertain assumptions","authors":"Roger Flage","doi":"10.1080/10286608.2019.1702029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2019.1702029","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Environmental risk assessments are routinely carried out in the Norwegian petroleum industry. As this industry is moving north, towards the Arctic and into areas with differing vulnerabilities and new risk sources compared to the now well-developed areas, previous operational experience and analytical practice may become less relevant. Reflecting the lack of knowledge (i.e. the uncertainty) that exists, and the strength of the available knowledge, then becomes critical. In the present paper, we review and discuss the industry guideline that for a long time has formed the methodological basis for these assessments, focusing on its foundation concerning risk and uncertainty. We conclude that there is a potential for improvement, and to contribute to improving the guideline, we describe how to implement – in the context of environmental risk assessment – a framework for conceptualising risk and its description that is consistent with the new uncertainty-based risk perspective recently adopted by the Petroleum Safety Authority Norway and in the Society for Risk Analysis glossary. The implementation includes a description and exemplification of a method for assessing the bias of uncertain risk assessment assumptions.","PeriodicalId":50689,"journal":{"name":"Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2019-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82030116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-10-02DOI: 10.1080/10286608.2019.1703960
Maryam Hassaninia, R. Ajalloeian, M. Habibi
ABSTRACT On 12th November 2017, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3 Richter scale in the town of Sarpol-e Zahab took place that caused lots of human casualties and devastation. After the incident, issues related to the probability of an earthquake with equal intensity and extents of similar building destruction were raised in Kermanshah city. Therefore, a seismic microzonation map of Kermanshah city has been prepared based on the geotechnical, geological, and geophysical data, and the data were analysed using Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In the next step, the vulnerability analysis of city buildings was carried out based on the ground-shaking map, vulnerability curves, and statistical data regarding the buildings. The results of the vulnerability rate of residential buildings indicate that 80% of residential buildings would be exposed to vulnerability from low to moderate. However, other buildings would suffer 2% fully destruction (D1), 7% very high destruction (D2) and 11% high destruction (D3), respectively. Finally, according to the obtained results, the proposed model is verified with the help of the data and observations from the Sarpol-e Zahab earthquake, which reveals that the model is in good agreement with the actual earthquake data.
{"title":"Seismic microzonation and building vulnerability assessment based on site characteristic and geotechnical parameters by use of Fuzzy-AHP model (a case study for Kermanshah city)","authors":"Maryam Hassaninia, R. Ajalloeian, M. Habibi","doi":"10.1080/10286608.2019.1703960","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2019.1703960","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT On 12th November 2017, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3 Richter scale in the town of Sarpol-e Zahab took place that caused lots of human casualties and devastation. After the incident, issues related to the probability of an earthquake with equal intensity and extents of similar building destruction were raised in Kermanshah city. Therefore, a seismic microzonation map of Kermanshah city has been prepared based on the geotechnical, geological, and geophysical data, and the data were analysed using Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In the next step, the vulnerability analysis of city buildings was carried out based on the ground-shaking map, vulnerability curves, and statistical data regarding the buildings. The results of the vulnerability rate of residential buildings indicate that 80% of residential buildings would be exposed to vulnerability from low to moderate. However, other buildings would suffer 2% fully destruction (D1), 7% very high destruction (D2) and 11% high destruction (D3), respectively. Finally, according to the obtained results, the proposed model is verified with the help of the data and observations from the Sarpol-e Zahab earthquake, which reveals that the model is in good agreement with the actual earthquake data.","PeriodicalId":50689,"journal":{"name":"Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2019-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84235928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-09-30DOI: 10.1080/10286608.2019.1672164
G. Vyas, K. N. Jha, N. Rajhans
ABSTRACT Green building (GB) rating systems are developed to measure the level of extent or sustainability of buildings. It is very important to focus on the attributes that require more cost and are contributing more to decreasing the negative impact of construction on the environment or nature. This analysis presents an idea-based conceptual model for prioritising the GB attributes by considering the environmental, social, and economic pillars of sustainable construction or monetary mainstays of manageable development. To analyse the environmentally and socially essential attributes, an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and an entropy method were used. For the economic analysis, a data envelopment analysis (DEA) was applied. If the decision makers give more importance to the environmental and social pillars of sustainability then they can consider the attributes such as occupants’ health, safety and comfort, climatic conditions, the cost of investment, operation and maintenance cost, and indoor air quality. If the construction stakeholder wishes to achieve more green points with limited funds then the important attributes are: operation and maintenance cost, material recycle, low-impact construction site techniques, locally available materials, and soil pollution. The proposed approach can advance GB construction practices that are not liable to result from conventional practices.
{"title":"Identifying and evaluating green building attributes by environment, social, and economic pillars of sustainability","authors":"G. Vyas, K. N. Jha, N. Rajhans","doi":"10.1080/10286608.2019.1672164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2019.1672164","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Green building (GB) rating systems are developed to measure the level of extent or sustainability of buildings. It is very important to focus on the attributes that require more cost and are contributing more to decreasing the negative impact of construction on the environment or nature. This analysis presents an idea-based conceptual model for prioritising the GB attributes by considering the environmental, social, and economic pillars of sustainable construction or monetary mainstays of manageable development. To analyse the environmentally and socially essential attributes, an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and an entropy method were used. For the economic analysis, a data envelopment analysis (DEA) was applied. If the decision makers give more importance to the environmental and social pillars of sustainability then they can consider the attributes such as occupants’ health, safety and comfort, climatic conditions, the cost of investment, operation and maintenance cost, and indoor air quality. If the construction stakeholder wishes to achieve more green points with limited funds then the important attributes are: operation and maintenance cost, material recycle, low-impact construction site techniques, locally available materials, and soil pollution. The proposed approach can advance GB construction practices that are not liable to result from conventional practices.","PeriodicalId":50689,"journal":{"name":"Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2019-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84828174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-05-21DOI: 10.1080/10286608.2019.1604691
M. Afshar, R. Hajiabadi
ABSTRACT In this paper, a weighted cellular automata (CA) is proposed to solve bi-objective reservoir operation optimisation problem considering two objectives of water supply and hydropower production. A mathematically derived updating rule is used contributing to the efficiency of the proposed CA method. The updating rule of the problem is derived by converting the bi-objective problem to a single-objective problem using the well-known weighting method. The proposed method is used to operate the Dez reservoir in Iran over various operation periods of 60, 120, 240 and 480 months to test the performance of the method for operational problems of different scales. Performance of the method is also compared with that of a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII) as one of the most popular multi-objective evolutionary algorithms. The results indicate that the proposed method is highly efficient compared to the NSGAII while producing comparable results. This is in line with the early findings of superior efficiency and comparable effectiveness of the CA method with the existing evolutionary algorithms for single objective optimisation problems.
{"title":"Multi-objective optimisation using cellular automata: application to multi-purpose reservoir operation","authors":"M. Afshar, R. Hajiabadi","doi":"10.1080/10286608.2019.1604691","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2019.1604691","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In this paper, a weighted cellular automata (CA) is proposed to solve bi-objective reservoir operation optimisation problem considering two objectives of water supply and hydropower production. A mathematically derived updating rule is used contributing to the efficiency of the proposed CA method. The updating rule of the problem is derived by converting the bi-objective problem to a single-objective problem using the well-known weighting method. The proposed method is used to operate the Dez reservoir in Iran over various operation periods of 60, 120, 240 and 480 months to test the performance of the method for operational problems of different scales. Performance of the method is also compared with that of a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII) as one of the most popular multi-objective evolutionary algorithms. The results indicate that the proposed method is highly efficient compared to the NSGAII while producing comparable results. This is in line with the early findings of superior efficiency and comparable effectiveness of the CA method with the existing evolutionary algorithms for single objective optimisation problems.","PeriodicalId":50689,"journal":{"name":"Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2019-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76261844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-02DOI: 10.1080/10286608.2019.1615479
D. Elms, I. McCahon, Robert E. Dewhirst
ABSTRACT Most formal engineering approaches to uncertainty use risk-based methods. Because risk formulations have a number of limitations there are situations where a resilience approach is preferable. A problem with resilience is the difficulty of measuring it. The paper discusses the issue and shows how a resilience formulation was used to prioritise actions to improve infrastructure resilience in an extensive region of New Zealand. The region was a complex system-of-systems so a systems approach was used. Once modelled, the infrastructure system was probed using three natural-hazard scenarios to determine system-element vulnerabilities. The vulnerability of each element was then matched with an importance value reflecting the effect of an element failure on community resilience. Community resilience was quantified in terms of overall income coming from three main sources each of which could be characterised by flow in a virtual pipeline. The pipelines were complex: tourism, for instance, required not only roads but also accommodation, communication, access and so on. The effect of infrastructure failures on pipeline flow and hence income quantified the relative importance of each infrastructure element. The vulnerability and importance values as a pair prioritised resilience-improving intervention for the element.
{"title":"Improving infrastructure resilience","authors":"D. Elms, I. McCahon, Robert E. Dewhirst","doi":"10.1080/10286608.2019.1615479","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2019.1615479","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Most formal engineering approaches to uncertainty use risk-based methods. Because risk formulations have a number of limitations there are situations where a resilience approach is preferable. A problem with resilience is the difficulty of measuring it. The paper discusses the issue and shows how a resilience formulation was used to prioritise actions to improve infrastructure resilience in an extensive region of New Zealand. The region was a complex system-of-systems so a systems approach was used. Once modelled, the infrastructure system was probed using three natural-hazard scenarios to determine system-element vulnerabilities. The vulnerability of each element was then matched with an importance value reflecting the effect of an element failure on community resilience. Community resilience was quantified in terms of overall income coming from three main sources each of which could be characterised by flow in a virtual pipeline. The pipelines were complex: tourism, for instance, required not only roads but also accommodation, communication, access and so on. The effect of infrastructure failures on pipeline flow and hence income quantified the relative importance of each infrastructure element. The vulnerability and importance values as a pair prioritised resilience-improving intervention for the element.","PeriodicalId":50689,"journal":{"name":"Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2019-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73599300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-02DOI: 10.1080/10286608.2019.1615480
Jessica Boakye, P. Gardoni, C. Murphy
ABSTRACT The availability of data sources has greatly increased due to advances in technology and data sharing. With these new data sources and significantly larger volume of data, engineers have been presented with a unique opportunity to create more realistic and informative models that can be used in real world applications. This paper presents a probabilistic framework for using big data to assess and predict the well-being of individuals before and in the aftermath of a hazard. Data are used to inform a Capability Approach (CA) where capabilities are defined as important dimensions of well-being reflecting what individuals have a genuine opportunity to do or become. The paper also addresses three of the grand challenges presented by big data: privacy, source validity, and accuracy. As an example, the probabilistic framework is used to study the ability of households in a coastal community to be sheltered in the aftermath of a hypothetical earthquake.
{"title":"Using opportunities in big data analytics to more accurately predict societal consequences of natural disasters","authors":"Jessica Boakye, P. Gardoni, C. Murphy","doi":"10.1080/10286608.2019.1615480","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2019.1615480","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The availability of data sources has greatly increased due to advances in technology and data sharing. With these new data sources and significantly larger volume of data, engineers have been presented with a unique opportunity to create more realistic and informative models that can be used in real world applications. This paper presents a probabilistic framework for using big data to assess and predict the well-being of individuals before and in the aftermath of a hazard. Data are used to inform a Capability Approach (CA) where capabilities are defined as important dimensions of well-being reflecting what individuals have a genuine opportunity to do or become. The paper also addresses three of the grand challenges presented by big data: privacy, source validity, and accuracy. As an example, the probabilistic framework is used to study the ability of households in a coastal community to be sheltered in the aftermath of a hypothetical earthquake.","PeriodicalId":50689,"journal":{"name":"Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2019-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79378205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-02DOI: 10.1080/10286608.2019.1615473
M. Dann, M. Maes
{"title":"Editorial – special issue IFED 2018","authors":"M. Dann, M. Maes","doi":"10.1080/10286608.2019.1615473","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2019.1615473","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":50689,"journal":{"name":"Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2019-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80659824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-02DOI: 10.1080/10286608.2019.1615478
M. Maes
ABSTRACT Support for high-level technical and environmental risk assessment and for large-scale decision making in general is typically provided by qualified experts. Often praised, but also reviled and blamed, the expert dwells in a cocoon of models and expertise and is armed with algorithms, regulations, and technical procedures to justify the support provided. At the end of the day experts often find themselves in sensitive and confrontational situations, as communication about highly uncertain issues is inherently ‘risky’. The objective of this paper is to throw some light on common misconceptions about the expert’s role in decision making. Various ill-conceived perceptions and stereotypes are organised in a set of widespread myths or misconceptions which the paper attempts to debunk in a neutral and objective manner. Certain types of flawed behaviour of individuals and organisations that portray themselves as decision making support experts, are also identified. They are categorised into a set of negative stereotypes that should raise red flags in dealing with such experts. The analysis of shortcomings, flaws, and misconceptions presented in this paper carries with it the benefit of providing solutions for a stronger and improved practice of risk-informed decision making.
{"title":"Misconceptions and stereotypes regarding experts providing support for risk-informed decision making","authors":"M. Maes","doi":"10.1080/10286608.2019.1615478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2019.1615478","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Support for high-level technical and environmental risk assessment and for large-scale decision making in general is typically provided by qualified experts. Often praised, but also reviled and blamed, the expert dwells in a cocoon of models and expertise and is armed with algorithms, regulations, and technical procedures to justify the support provided. At the end of the day experts often find themselves in sensitive and confrontational situations, as communication about highly uncertain issues is inherently ‘risky’. The objective of this paper is to throw some light on common misconceptions about the expert’s role in decision making. Various ill-conceived perceptions and stereotypes are organised in a set of widespread myths or misconceptions which the paper attempts to debunk in a neutral and objective manner. Certain types of flawed behaviour of individuals and organisations that portray themselves as decision making support experts, are also identified. They are categorised into a set of negative stereotypes that should raise red flags in dealing with such experts. The analysis of shortcomings, flaws, and misconceptions presented in this paper carries with it the benefit of providing solutions for a stronger and improved practice of risk-informed decision making.","PeriodicalId":50689,"journal":{"name":"Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2019-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80862230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-02DOI: 10.1080/10286608.2019.1615476
Linda Nielsen, Sebastian Tølbøll Glavind, J. Qin, M. Faber
ABSTRACT Decision making subject to uncertain information, whether fake or factual, in the context of management of socio-technical systems, is critically discussed from both philosophical and operational perspectives. In dealing with possible fake, incorrect and/or factual information we take the perspective that any information utilised as basis for supporting decisions, has to be dealt with in exactly the same manner – in accordance with Bayesian decision analysis. The important issue is to identify and model the scenarios through which information may cause adverse consequences and to account for their potential effects. To this end we first provide a mapping of how information affects the decision making context and a categorisation of causes for information leading to adverse consequences. Secondly, we introduce a decision analytical framework aiming to optimise decision alternatives for managing systems including not only one possible system model but a set of different possible system models. As a means for assessing the benefit of collecting additional information, we utilise Value of Information analysis from Bayesian decision analysis. Finally, a principal example is provided which illustrates selected aspects of how possibly fake information affects decision making and how it might be dealt with.
{"title":"Faith and fakes – dealing with critical information in decision analysis","authors":"Linda Nielsen, Sebastian Tølbøll Glavind, J. Qin, M. Faber","doi":"10.1080/10286608.2019.1615476","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2019.1615476","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Decision making subject to uncertain information, whether fake or factual, in the context of management of socio-technical systems, is critically discussed from both philosophical and operational perspectives. In dealing with possible fake, incorrect and/or factual information we take the perspective that any information utilised as basis for supporting decisions, has to be dealt with in exactly the same manner – in accordance with Bayesian decision analysis. The important issue is to identify and model the scenarios through which information may cause adverse consequences and to account for their potential effects. To this end we first provide a mapping of how information affects the decision making context and a categorisation of causes for information leading to adverse consequences. Secondly, we introduce a decision analytical framework aiming to optimise decision alternatives for managing systems including not only one possible system model but a set of different possible system models. As a means for assessing the benefit of collecting additional information, we utilise Value of Information analysis from Bayesian decision analysis. Finally, a principal example is provided which illustrates selected aspects of how possibly fake information affects decision making and how it might be dealt with.","PeriodicalId":50689,"journal":{"name":"Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2019-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74378107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-02DOI: 10.1080/10286608.2019.1615474
D. Elms
ABSTRACT Risk methods are powerful and versatile, but they have limitations and subtle traps. The paper explores the nature of risk. There are three main difficulties. First, there is a problem with quality and completeness of information. Lack of precise information means that likelihood and consequences have to be estimated, so the information is vulnerable to biases: some are explored. Secondly, there is a serious problem of completeness in risk models, where omissions can lead to serious consequences. Unexpected events, sometimes called ‘black swans’, abound. Thirdly, the conjunction of very small probabilities and major consequences can lead to unreliable and dubious results. Applications areas considered are structural engineering, project management and risk management generally. There are situations where a resilience approach is preferable to risk.
{"title":"Limitations of risk approaches","authors":"D. Elms","doi":"10.1080/10286608.2019.1615474","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10286608.2019.1615474","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Risk methods are powerful and versatile, but they have limitations and subtle traps. The paper explores the nature of risk. There are three main difficulties. First, there is a problem with quality and completeness of information. Lack of precise information means that likelihood and consequences have to be estimated, so the information is vulnerable to biases: some are explored. Secondly, there is a serious problem of completeness in risk models, where omissions can lead to serious consequences. Unexpected events, sometimes called ‘black swans’, abound. Thirdly, the conjunction of very small probabilities and major consequences can lead to unreliable and dubious results. Applications areas considered are structural engineering, project management and risk management generally. There are situations where a resilience approach is preferable to risk.","PeriodicalId":50689,"journal":{"name":"Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2019-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82271076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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