Pub Date : 2024-07-08DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6015
Jon Sampedro, Stephanie T. Waldhoff, James A. Edmonds, Gokul Iyer, S. Msangi, Kanishka B. Narayan, Pralit L. Patel, Marshall Wise
Income and its distribution profile are important determinants of residential energy demand and carry direct implications for human well-being and climate. We explore the sensitivity of residential energy systems to income growth and distribution across SSP-RCP scenarios using a global, integrated, multisector dynamics model, GCAM, which tracks national/regional household energy services and fuel choice by income decile. Nation/region energy use patterns across deciles tend to converge over time with aggregate income growth, as higher-income consumers approach satiation levels in floorspace and energy services. However, in some regions, existing within-region inequalities in energy consumption persist over time due to slow income growth in lower income groups. Due to continued differences in fuel types, lower income groups will have higher exposure to household air pollution, despite lower contributions to greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that the share of income dedicated to energy is higher for lower deciles, with strong regional differences.
{"title":"Residential energy demand, emissions, and expenditures at regional and income-decile level for alternative futures","authors":"Jon Sampedro, Stephanie T. Waldhoff, James A. Edmonds, Gokul Iyer, S. Msangi, Kanishka B. Narayan, Pralit L. Patel, Marshall Wise","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6015","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Income and its distribution profile are important determinants of residential energy demand and carry direct implications for human well-being and climate. We explore the sensitivity of residential energy systems to income growth and distribution across SSP-RCP scenarios using a global, integrated, multisector dynamics model, GCAM, which tracks national/regional household energy services and fuel choice by income decile. Nation/region energy use patterns across deciles tend to converge over time with aggregate income growth, as higher-income consumers approach satiation levels in floorspace and energy services. However, in some regions, existing within-region inequalities in energy consumption persist over time due to slow income growth in lower income groups. Due to continued differences in fuel types, lower income groups will have higher exposure to household air pollution, despite lower contributions to greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that the share of income dedicated to energy is higher for lower deciles, with strong regional differences.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141668398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-05DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa6
Aadhityaa Mohanavelu, Khalid K. Osman
{"title":"Ripples of injustice: Unraveling water equity challenges on a global scale","authors":"Aadhityaa Mohanavelu, Khalid K. Osman","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa6","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 <jats:p/>","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141674731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-05DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa7
Daling Li Yi, Ke Fan, Shengping He, Peng Wang
Recent studies have revealed the slowed Arctic sea-ice loss, but its climate effect on the ocean system remains unclear. By examining reanalysis datasets, we illustrate a paradoxical regime shift characterized by sustained ice loss and surface salinification in the Kara-Laptev Seas (KLS) during boreal summer since 2008. A notable phase transition from surface freshening during one period (1997–2008) with rapid sea-ice melting to salinification during another period (2009–2020) with gentle sea-ice melting has been identified in the KLS. Using a mixed-layer salinity budget, we characterized quantitatively the role of ice melting in driving salinification across different seas. We show that the salinification observed post-2008 mainly arises from the weakened summer sea-ice-ocean freshwater input, particularly the localized reduction in ice volume during June–August. This recent salinification in the KLS likely maintains a relatively stable state in the thinner seasonal sea-ice prevailing in the new Arctic.
{"title":"Sea-ice-loss slowdown modulates the sea surface salinification in the Kara-Laptev Seas since the 2008 summer","authors":"Daling Li Yi, Ke Fan, Shengping He, Peng Wang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa7","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Recent studies have revealed the slowed Arctic sea-ice loss, but its climate effect on the ocean system remains unclear. By examining reanalysis datasets, we illustrate a paradoxical regime shift characterized by sustained ice loss and surface salinification in the Kara-Laptev Seas (KLS) during boreal summer since 2008. A notable phase transition from surface freshening during one period (1997–2008) with rapid sea-ice melting to salinification during another period (2009–2020) with gentle sea-ice melting has been identified in the KLS. Using a mixed-layer salinity budget, we characterized quantitatively the role of ice melting in driving salinification across different seas. We show that the salinification observed post-2008 mainly arises from the weakened summer sea-ice-ocean freshwater input, particularly the localized reduction in ice volume during June–August. This recent salinification in the KLS likely maintains a relatively stable state in the thinner seasonal sea-ice prevailing in the new Arctic.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141677008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-05DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa2
Cheyenne Lei, Jiquan Chen, Ines Ibanez, P. Sciusco, Gabriela Shirkey, Ming Lei, Peter Reich, G. P. Robertson
Surface albedo can affect the energy budget and subsequently cause localized warming or cooling of the climate. When we convert a substantial portion of lands to agriculture, land surface properties are consequently altered, including albedo. Through crop selection and management, one can increase crop albedo to obtain higher levels of localized cooling effects to mitigate global warming. Still, there is little understanding about how distinctive features of a cropping system may be responsible for elevated albedo and consequently for the cooling potential of cultivated lands. To address this pressing issue, we conducted seasonal measurements of surface reflectivity during five growing seasons on annual crops of corn-soybean–winter wheat (Zea mays L.- Glycine max L. Merrill - Triticum aestivum L.; CSW) rotations at three agronomic intensities, a monoculture of perennial switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), and perennial polycultures of early successional and restored prairie grasslands. We found that crop-species, agronomic intensity, seasonality, and plant phenology had significant effects on albedo. The mean±SD albedo was highest in perennial crops of switchgrass (0.179±0.04), intermediate in early successional crops (0.170±0.04), and lowest in a reduced input corn systems with cover crops (0.154±0.02). The strongest cooling potentials were found in soybean (-0.450 kg CO2e m-2 yr-1) and switchgrass (-0.367 kg CO2e m-2 yr-1), with up to -0.265 kg CO2e m-2 yr-1 of localized climate cooling annually provided by different agroecosystems. We also demonstrated how diverse ecosystems, leaf canopy, and agronomic practices can affect surface reflectivity and provide another potential nature-based solution for reducing global warming at localized scales.
地表反照率会影响能量预算，进而导致局部气候变暖或变冷。当我们将大部分土地转为农业用地时，地表属性会随之改变，包括反照率。通过作物选择和管理，人们可以增加作物的反照率，从而获得更高水平的局部降温效应，缓解全球变暖。然而，对于种植系统的独特特征如何导致反照率升高，进而提高耕地的降温潜力，人们还知之甚少。为了解决这个紧迫的问题，我们在五个生长季期间对三种农艺强度的玉米-大豆-冬小麦（Zea mays L.- Glycine max L. Merrill - Triticum aestivum L.；CSW）轮作一年生作物、多年生开关草（Panicum virgatum L.）单一作物以及早期演替草原和恢复草原的多年生多茬作物的地表反射率进行了季节性测量。我们发现，作物种类、农艺强度、季节性和植物物候对反照率有显著影响。反照率的平均值（±SD）在多年生开关草作物中最高（0.179±0.04），在早期演替作物中居中（0.170±0.04），而在减少投入的覆盖作物玉米系统中最低（0.154±0.02）。大豆（-0.450 kg CO2e m-2 yr-1）和开关草（-0.367 kg CO2e m-2 yr-1）的降温潜力最强，不同农业生态系统每年提供的局部气候降温可达-0.265 kg CO2e m-2 yr-1。我们还展示了不同的生态系统、叶冠和农艺实践如何影响地表反射率，并为在局部范围内减少全球变暖提供了另一种潜在的基于自然的解决方案。
{"title":"Albedo of crops as a nature-based climate solution to global warming","authors":"Cheyenne Lei, Jiquan Chen, Ines Ibanez, P. Sciusco, Gabriela Shirkey, Ming Lei, Peter Reich, G. P. Robertson","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa2","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Surface albedo can affect the energy budget and subsequently cause localized warming or cooling of the climate. When we convert a substantial portion of lands to agriculture, land surface properties are consequently altered, including albedo. Through crop selection and management, one can increase crop albedo to obtain higher levels of localized cooling effects to mitigate global warming. Still, there is little understanding about how distinctive features of a cropping system may be responsible for elevated albedo and consequently for the cooling potential of cultivated lands. To address this pressing issue, we conducted seasonal measurements of surface reflectivity during five growing seasons on annual crops of corn-soybean–winter wheat (Zea mays L.- Glycine max L. Merrill - Triticum aestivum L.; CSW) rotations at three agronomic intensities, a monoculture of perennial switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), and perennial polycultures of early successional and restored prairie grasslands. We found that crop-species, agronomic intensity, seasonality, and plant phenology had significant effects on albedo. The mean±SD albedo was highest in perennial crops of switchgrass (0.179±0.04), intermediate in early successional crops (0.170±0.04), and lowest in a reduced input corn systems with cover crops (0.154±0.02). The strongest cooling potentials were found in soybean (-0.450 kg CO2e m-2 yr-1) and switchgrass (-0.367 kg CO2e m-2 yr-1), with up to -0.265 kg CO2e m-2 yr-1 of localized climate cooling annually provided by different agroecosystems. We also demonstrated how diverse ecosystems, leaf canopy, and agronomic practices can affect surface reflectivity and provide another potential nature-based solution for reducing global warming at localized scales.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141674283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-05DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa3
B. V. Van Dam, V. Helfer, David Kaiser, Eva Sinemus, Joanna Staneva, Martin Zimmer
While the (re-)establishment of Blue Carbon Ecosystems (BCE) is seen as an important tool to mitigate climate change, the credibility of such nature-based solutions has been marred by recent revelations ranging from weak accounting to malpractice. In light of this, there is a clear need to develop monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) systems towards the reliable, practical, and accurate accounting of additional and durable carbon dioxide removal (CDR). We propose the development of a Blue Carbon Ecosystem Digital Twin (BCE-DT) as a practical solution, integrating real-time data and models into What-If Scenarios of CDR aimed at the quantification of CDR additionality and durability. Critically, such a solution would be amenable to projects across a broad range in spatial scale and ecosytem type. In parallel, we propose the creation of an independent and not-for-profit Standards Development Organization (SDO) for the management of this Digital Twin and oversight of the certification process based on MRV. Considering the interwoven nature of the scientific and policy/legal needs we raise, an improved dialogue and collaboration between the scientific and policy communities is clearly needed. We argue that this BCE-DT, along with its oversight and implementation by a SDO, would fit this niche and support the fair and accurate implementation of MRV critically needed for BCE-based CDR to proceed.
{"title":"Towards a fair, reliable, and practical verification framework for Blue Carbon-based CDR","authors":"B. V. Van Dam, V. Helfer, David Kaiser, Eva Sinemus, Joanna Staneva, Martin Zimmer","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa3","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 While the (re-)establishment of Blue Carbon Ecosystems (BCE) is seen as an important tool to mitigate climate change, the credibility of such nature-based solutions has been marred by recent revelations ranging from weak accounting to malpractice. In light of this, there is a clear need to develop monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) systems towards the reliable, practical, and accurate accounting of additional and durable carbon dioxide removal (CDR). We propose the development of a Blue Carbon Ecosystem Digital Twin (BCE-DT) as a practical solution, integrating real-time data and models into What-If Scenarios of CDR aimed at the quantification of CDR additionality and durability. Critically, such a solution would be amenable to projects across a broad range in spatial scale and ecosytem type. In parallel, we propose the creation of an independent and not-for-profit Standards Development Organization (SDO) for the management of this Digital Twin and oversight of the certification process based on MRV. Considering the interwoven nature of the scientific and policy/legal needs we raise, an improved dialogue and collaboration between the scientific and policy communities is clearly needed. We argue that this BCE-DT, along with its oversight and implementation by a SDO, would fit this niche and support the fair and accurate implementation of MRV critically needed for BCE-based CDR to proceed.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141675918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-05DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa4
Dinesh Bhandari, Eddie Robinson, M. Dhimal, Ann Borda, Krsitie L. Ebi, Zerina Lokmic-Tomkins
Driven by the existential threats of climate change to planetary health, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established a mandate for National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) to facilitate adaptation planning in low- and middle-income countries. However, the extent to which NAPs consider health risks, particularly those affecting maternal and child health in the adaptation planning process, remains unexplored. Employing the READ approach for document analysis, this study assesses the thoroughness with which these risks were considered during the development and implementation of NAPs in selected Asia-Pacific countries: Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste. The findings reveal health is consistently identified as a high-priority sector vulnerable to climate change. Cambodia, Nepal, and Timor-Leste prioritized maternal and child health issues. Consequently, these countries have outlined a broader gender-based approach in their NAP development and implementation processes, addressing some of the maternal and child health threats posed by climate change. The findings underscore the need for enhanced efforts to prioritize the reduction of maternal and child health risks associated with climate change through effective interventions in national adaptation planning. This need could be met through evidence generation based on the maternal and child health impacts of climate change in under-represented countries. Additionally, the future development and updating of NAPs should involve a more comprehensive and diverse representation of women from various cultural and geographic backgrounds to prioritize the protection of maternal and child health in the climate change policy discourse.
{"title":"Maternal and child health climate change adaptation: A qualitative document analysis of South Asian National Adaptation Plans","authors":"Dinesh Bhandari, Eddie Robinson, M. Dhimal, Ann Borda, Krsitie L. Ebi, Zerina Lokmic-Tomkins","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa4","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Driven by the existential threats of climate change to planetary health, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established a mandate for National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) to facilitate adaptation planning in low- and middle-income countries. However, the extent to which NAPs consider health risks, particularly those affecting maternal and child health in the adaptation planning process, remains unexplored. Employing the READ approach for document analysis, this study assesses the thoroughness with which these risks were considered during the development and implementation of NAPs in selected Asia-Pacific countries: Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste. The findings reveal health is consistently identified as a high-priority sector vulnerable to climate change. Cambodia, Nepal, and Timor-Leste prioritized maternal and child health issues. Consequently, these countries have outlined a broader gender-based approach in their NAP development and implementation processes, addressing some of the maternal and child health threats posed by climate change. The findings underscore the need for enhanced efforts to prioritize the reduction of maternal and child health risks associated with climate change through effective interventions in national adaptation planning. This need could be met through evidence generation based on the maternal and child health impacts of climate change in under-represented countries. Additionally, the future development and updating of NAPs should involve a more comprehensive and diverse representation of women from various cultural and geographic backgrounds to prioritize the protection of maternal and child health in the climate change policy discourse.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141675390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-05DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa1
Alessio Gatto, Federico Martellozzo, Stefano Clò, Lorenzo Ciulla, S. Segoni
The frequency of occurrence of hydrogeological disasters (HGDs), as well as the persistence of their impacts, are not evenly distributed. Hazardous areas, by definition, are more prone to extreme events, while in densely urbanized regions, the impacts of these events tend to be more severe. The objective of this study is to investigate statistical relationships between urban and natural environment features and HGD occurrences. Taking Italian provinces as a comprehensive case study, we assessed the coefficient of determination, the 2 test, and the p-value to determine the degree of statistical correlation between impact indicators and 57 hazard/risk/land management indicators, such as extension of at-risk areas or soil sealing. We discovered that HGDs persistence and frequency correlate best with an indicator describing the amount of soil sealing (i.e., urbanized soil) in medium-hazard areas. Building on that, a further dynamic analysis was carried out to investigate whether soil sealing trends changed significantly after the provinces were struck by HGDs. Our findings hold significant implications, challenging current policy norms. European directives and Italian national laws impose strict development restrictions in "high-hazard" areas, but generally allow for urbanization in "medium-hazard" areas, with only minor limitations. Moreover, a paradoxical positive urbanization trend is observed in the most sensitive areas, greater than in safer areas and generally unchanged after HGDs. This outcome highlights a critical gap in risk perception that reflects into territorial planning, decision-making processes, and existing policies.
{"title":"The downward spiral entangling soil sealing and hydrogeological disasters","authors":"Alessio Gatto, Federico Martellozzo, Stefano Clò, Lorenzo Ciulla, S. Segoni","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5fa1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The frequency of occurrence of hydrogeological disasters (HGDs), as well as the persistence of their impacts, are not evenly distributed. Hazardous areas, by definition, are more prone to extreme events, while in densely urbanized regions, the impacts of these events tend to be more severe. The objective of this study is to investigate statistical relationships between urban and natural environment features and HGD occurrences. Taking Italian provinces as a comprehensive case study, we assessed the coefficient of determination, the 2 test, and the p-value to determine the degree of statistical correlation between impact indicators and 57 hazard/risk/land management indicators, such as extension of at-risk areas or soil sealing. We discovered that HGDs persistence and frequency correlate best with an indicator describing the amount of soil sealing (i.e., urbanized soil) in medium-hazard areas. Building on that, a further dynamic analysis was carried out to investigate whether soil sealing trends changed significantly after the provinces were struck by HGDs. Our findings hold significant implications, challenging current policy norms. European directives and Italian national laws impose strict development restrictions in \"high-hazard\" areas, but generally allow for urbanization in \"medium-hazard\" areas, with only minor limitations. Moreover, a paradoxical positive urbanization trend is observed in the most sensitive areas, greater than in safer areas and generally unchanged after HGDs. This outcome highlights a critical gap in risk perception that reflects into territorial planning, decision-making processes, and existing policies.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141675568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-04DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5f45
D. Sachan, Pankaj Kumar
Anthropogenic climate change accelerates the decline of global biodiversity and disrupts ecosystem functioning, forcing terrestrial and aquatic species to change their ranges, phenology, physiology, and morphology. In our study, we have employed univariate and a newly-defined vector-algebra-derived multivariate estimate of the velocity of climate change (VoCC) derived from near-surface temperature and total precipitation to present the historical (1980-2005) and projected (2020-2097) shifts in the climate space over the Indian subcontinent. The multivariate VoCC was further used to derive climatic divergence (stress) and residence time of nine representative protected areas (PAs). VoCC is a versatile metric that approximates the “required” migration speeds for the species. Our results from observations (CRU, ERA5) and model simulations (CMIP5, Regional Earth System Model) show that regions with relatively flatter terrain, such as Deserts, Semi-Arid, Deccan Peninsula and Gangetic Plains, displayed the highest historical velocities in the range of 2-15 km/yr, which are also projected to increase in the future period to range of 4-20 km/yr. The estimates of multivariate velocities were generally higher than the univariate velocities, leading to a better representation of shifts in real climate space. The high-resolution regional earth system model, ROM, performed better than the global circulations models in producing realistic VoCCs. The climatic stress (diverging vectors closer to 180 degrees) was higher for the Trans-Himalayas, Himalayas, Gangetic Plains, and parts of the Deccan Peninsula, and it is projected to increase in the near and mid future. The PAs with the shortest residence times were found to be Sundarbans (63 years), Ranthambore (32 years) and Ramgarh Vishdhari (9 years), illustrating a severe challenge for conservationists under changing climate. Our results present the importance of employing multivariate velocities to simulate more realistic estimates of shifting climate and added benefits of measures of climatic divergence and stress on biodiversity.
{"title":"Shifting climate and associated ecological impacts in the Indian subcontinent: Present and future outlook","authors":"D. Sachan, Pankaj Kumar","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5f45","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5f45","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Anthropogenic climate change accelerates the decline of global biodiversity and disrupts ecosystem functioning, forcing terrestrial and aquatic species to change their ranges, phenology, physiology, and morphology. In our study, we have employed univariate and a newly-defined vector-algebra-derived multivariate estimate of the velocity of climate change (VoCC) derived from near-surface temperature and total precipitation to present the historical (1980-2005) and projected (2020-2097) shifts in the climate space over the Indian subcontinent. The multivariate VoCC was further used to derive climatic divergence (stress) and residence time of nine representative protected areas (PAs). VoCC is a versatile metric that approximates the “required” migration speeds for the species. Our results from observations (CRU, ERA5) and model simulations (CMIP5, Regional Earth System Model) show that regions with relatively flatter terrain, such as Deserts, Semi-Arid, Deccan Peninsula and Gangetic Plains, displayed the highest historical velocities in the range of 2-15 km/yr, which are also projected to increase in the future period to range of 4-20 km/yr. The estimates of multivariate velocities were generally higher than the univariate velocities, leading to a better representation of shifts in real climate space. The high-resolution regional earth system model, ROM, performed better than the global circulations models in producing realistic VoCCs. The climatic stress (diverging vectors closer to 180 degrees) was higher for the Trans-Himalayas, Himalayas, Gangetic Plains, and parts of the Deccan Peninsula, and it is projected to increase in the near and mid future. The PAs with the shortest residence times were found to be Sundarbans (63 years), Ranthambore (32 years) and Ramgarh Vishdhari (9 years), illustrating a severe challenge for conservationists under changing climate. Our results present the importance of employing multivariate velocities to simulate more realistic estimates of shifting climate and added benefits of measures of climatic divergence and stress on biodiversity.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141678281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-04DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5f42
A. C. Fiorini, G. Angelkorte, Tamar Bakman, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Talita Cruz, Fabio A. Diuana, Taísa Morais, Régis Rathmann, F. T. F. da Silva, Isabela Schmidt Tagomori, Marianne Zotin, André F. P. Lucena, A. Szklo, Roberto Schaeffer, J. Portugal-Pereira
Climate change is one of the biggest threats to global food security, with observed impacts already affecting agriculture. This study aims to systematize and analyze the observed biophysical impacts and their evolution in agriculture in Brazil. For this, we carry out a systematic literature review that includes 1,844 articles in the first stage, and 53 articles with synthesized information retrieved. Temperature and precipitation are the most studied climate variables when considering observed climate impact on food production, with corn, soybeans, and sugarcane as the major crops assessed. We also identify regional patterns of both positive and negative trends due to climate change: 67% of assessed studies report negative impacts, 15% both negative and positive, 11% neutral relationships and only 7% reveal positive effects. The diversity in scope and methodological approaches across studies presents a challenge, as only a fraction sufficiently contextualizes baseline conditions, not allowing for a comprehensive understanding of impact attribution. Nonetheless, the literature spotlights productivity declines in cassava, cocoa, rice and wheat. As for corn, soybeans, and sugarcane studies reveal both positive and negative impacts, depending on baseline premises. The call for more transparent and comprehensive studies is urgent, especially to encompass a broader range of food crops, particularly in family farming systems and across diverse regional scales. Such studies are imperative for advancing evidence-based climate-resilient strategies in agriculture aiming to map and prevent negative impacts, while promoting positive outcomes in food production.
{"title":"How climate change is impacting the Brazilian agricultural sector: Evidence from a systematic literature review","authors":"A. C. Fiorini, G. Angelkorte, Tamar Bakman, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Talita Cruz, Fabio A. Diuana, Taísa Morais, Régis Rathmann, F. T. F. da Silva, Isabela Schmidt Tagomori, Marianne Zotin, André F. P. Lucena, A. Szklo, Roberto Schaeffer, J. Portugal-Pereira","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5f42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5f42","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Climate change is one of the biggest threats to global food security, with observed impacts already affecting agriculture. This study aims to systematize and analyze the observed biophysical impacts and their evolution in agriculture in Brazil. For this, we carry out a systematic literature review that includes 1,844 articles in the first stage, and 53 articles with synthesized information retrieved. Temperature and precipitation are the most studied climate variables when considering observed climate impact on food production, with corn, soybeans, and sugarcane as the major crops assessed. We also identify regional patterns of both positive and negative trends due to climate change: 67% of assessed studies report negative impacts, 15% both negative and positive, 11% neutral relationships and only 7% reveal positive effects. The diversity in scope and methodological approaches across studies presents a challenge, as only a fraction sufficiently contextualizes baseline conditions, not allowing for a comprehensive understanding of impact attribution. Nonetheless, the literature spotlights productivity declines in cassava, cocoa, rice and wheat. As for corn, soybeans, and sugarcane studies reveal both positive and negative impacts, depending on baseline premises. The call for more transparent and comprehensive studies is urgent, especially to encompass a broader range of food crops, particularly in family farming systems and across diverse regional scales. Such studies are imperative for advancing evidence-based climate-resilient strategies in agriculture aiming to map and prevent negative impacts, while promoting positive outcomes in food production.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141679609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-03DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5e9d
Usha K H, Govindasamy Bala, Anu Xavier
Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) has been proposed as one of the potential options to offset the impacts of anthropogenically induced climate change. Previous modelling studies have shown that the efficacy of the cooling via SAG increases with altitude of the aerosol layer. It has been also shown that the stratospheric heating associated with SAG could stabilize the tropical atmosphere and weaken the tropical hydrological cycle. Using a global climate model, we perform a systematic study by prescribing volcanic sulphate aerosols at three different altitudes (22 km, 18 km and 16 km) and assess the sensitivity of the global and tropical mean precipitation to the altitude. We find that even though the efficacy of cooling increases with altitude of the aerosol layer, the global and tropical mean precipitation changes are less sensitive to the height of the aerosol layer. This is because the magnitude of both the global and tropical mean precipitation reduction increases with aerosol altitude in response to increasing efficacy of aerosols, but this sensitivity related to the slow response is nearly offset by the sensitivity of fast precipitation adjustments to aerosol altitude. A perspective and analysis based on atmospheric energy budget is presented to explain the lack of sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to the altitude of the stratospheric sulphate aerosol layer.
平流层气溶胶地球工程（SAG）被认为是抵消人类活动引起的气候变化影响的潜在方案之一。以前的建模研究表明，通过 SAG 冷却的效果随着气溶胶层高度的增加而增加。研究还表明，与 SAG 相关的平流层加热可以稳定热带大气，并削弱热带水文循环。我们利用全球气候模型，通过在三个不同高度（22 千米、18 千米和 16 千米）预设火山硫酸盐气溶胶进行了系统研究，并评估了全球和热带平均降水量对高度的敏感性。我们发现，尽管冷却效果随着气溶胶层高度的增加而增加，但全球和热带平均降水量的变化对气溶胶层高度的敏感性较低。这是因为全球和热带平均降水量减少的幅度都会随着气溶胶高度的增加而增加，以应对气溶胶效能的增加，但这种与缓慢响应有关的敏感性几乎被快速降水调整对气溶胶高度的敏感性所抵消。基于大气能量预算的观点和分析解释了水文循环对平流层硫酸盐气溶胶层高度缺乏敏感性的原因。
{"title":"Sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to the altitude of stratospheric sulphate aerosol layer","authors":"Usha K H, Govindasamy Bala, Anu Xavier","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad5e9d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5e9d","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) has been proposed as one of the potential options to offset the impacts of anthropogenically induced climate change. Previous modelling studies have shown that the efficacy of the cooling via SAG increases with altitude of the aerosol layer. It has been also shown that the stratospheric heating associated with SAG could stabilize the tropical atmosphere and weaken the tropical hydrological cycle. Using a global climate model, we perform a systematic study by prescribing volcanic sulphate aerosols at three different altitudes (22 km, 18 km and 16 km) and assess the sensitivity of the global and tropical mean precipitation to the altitude. We find that even though the efficacy of cooling increases with altitude of the aerosol layer, the global and tropical mean precipitation changes are less sensitive to the height of the aerosol layer. This is because the magnitude of both the global and tropical mean precipitation reduction increases with aerosol altitude in response to increasing efficacy of aerosols, but this sensitivity related to the slow response is nearly offset by the sensitivity of fast precipitation adjustments to aerosol altitude. A perspective and analysis based on atmospheric energy budget is presented to explain the lack of sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to the altitude of the stratospheric sulphate aerosol layer.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141680615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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