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Grain Size Distribution and Provenance of Holocene Sand from the Sava River (Zagreb, Croatia) 萨瓦河全新世沙子的粒度分布和产地(克罗地亚萨格勒布)
Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.3390/geosciences14070188
Uroš Barudžija, Matteo Blatančić, T. Malvić
This study involves an investigation into the grain size distribution and provenance of the sand deposited near Zagreb (Croatia) in the riverbed of the regionally important, almost 1000 km long Sava River, which connects several SE European countries. Recent research in the study area has mainly focused on the deposits forming the Zagreb alluvial aquifer system, rather on the Sava River sediment deposited in its riverbed, which is the focus of this study. The grain size distribution results obtained by dry sieving and laser granulometry showed a predominately fine and medium sand deposition at riverbanks and sand point bars. Medium sand increased downstream towards the east, within the artificially more channelized riverbed in the urban area. Fine sand prevailed 50 km further downstream in a more meandering low-relief area, near the city of Sisak and Lonjsko Polje Nature Park. Provenance analysis showed predominately carbonate sand in the western part of the city of Zagreb, originating from distant (Alpine) and local (Medvednica Mt. and Samobor Hills) sources. More siliciclastic sand was deposited in the Sava riverbed in the middle and eastern parts of Zagreb, originating mainly from the Medvednica Mt. The prevailing siliciclastic sand further downstream of the Sava River is probably sourced from the Kupa River tributary. Although various studies of the Zagreb alluvial aquifer system have been conducted so far, this study represents a novelty in its investigation into the grain size distribution of the Sava riverbed sand itself, setting the foundations for investigations in the future.
这项研究涉及对萨格勒布(克罗地亚)附近沉积在该地区重要的萨瓦河河床中的沙子的粒度分布和来源进行调查,萨瓦河全长近 1000 公里,连接着东南欧多个国家。最近在该研究地区进行的研究主要集中在形成萨格勒布冲积含水层系统的沉积物上,而不是萨瓦河河床沉积物,这也是本研究的重点。通过干筛和激光粒度仪获得的粒度分布结果显示,河岸和沙点条处沉积的主要是细沙和中沙。中砂在下游向东增加,位于城市地区人工渠化的河床内。在下游 50 公里处,即西萨克市和隆伊斯科波列自然公园附近的蜿蜒低洼地区,细沙较多。产地分析表明,萨格勒布市西部主要是碳酸盐沙,来源于远方(阿尔卑斯山)和本地(梅德韦德尼察山和萨莫博尔山)。更多的硅质砂沉积在萨格勒布中部和东部的萨瓦河河床中,主要来自梅德韦德尼卡山。 萨瓦河下游的硅质砂可能来自库帕河支流。虽然迄今为止已对萨格勒布冲积含水层系统进行了各种研究,但本研究对萨瓦河河床沙粒粒度分布的调查是一项创新,为今后的调查奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Elemental Geochemistry on Paleoenvironment Reconstruction: Proxies on Miocene-Pliocene of Marine to Fluvial Sediment in Serpong, Banten, Indonesia 古环境重建中的元素地球化学:印度尼西亚万丹省瑟蓬中新世-上新世海相-冲积沉积物的代用指标
Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.3390/geosciences14070189
H. Syaeful, Syaiful Bakhri, B. Muljana, A. Sumaryanto, I. Sukadana, Hendra Adhi Pratama, Adi Gunawan Muhammad, Ngadenin, F. D. Indrastomo, R. C. Ciputra, Susilo Widodo, Nunik Madyaningarum, Puji Santosa, Muhammad Burhannudinnur, Zufialdi Zakaria
Research of the depositional environment using geological mapping, petrography, gamma-ray (GR) log, palynology, and foraminifera fossils of the Bojongmanik Formation has led to the formation of several different conclusions about the transition to the marine environment, which are attractive to revisit. The expected results of this research are to determine the paleoenvironment of the Bojongmanik and Serpong Formations based on elemental geochemistry, the development of paleoenvironment proxies based on portable X-ray fluorescence (pXRF) in fluvial to transitional environments studies, and the contribution of paleoenvironment analysis to GR-log facies interpretation. The research methodology starts with GR-log facies analysis, Pearson’s correlation, paleoenvironment analysis based on elemental affinity and elemental ratio, and comparing the paleoenvironment with GR-log-based facies. The paleoenvironment analysis based on elemental geochemistry resulted in the Bojongmanik Formation in the research area deposited at the tidal point bar, lagoon, and shoreface, while the Serpong Formation was deposited at the fluvial point bar and floodplain. Compared to previous research, the Bojongmanik Formation in the research area could be stratigraphically related to the upper Bojongmanik Formation. Proxies based on elemental geochemical affinities of carbonate-associated, carbonate-productivity, terrigenous-associated elements, and redox-sensitive trace elements show contrast changes between facies. Proxies based on the specific ratio show a detailed paleoenvironment for paleoclimate (Sr/Cu), paleosalinity (Sr/Ba), paleoredox (Cu/Zn), paleo-hydrodynamics and water depth (Zr/Rb and Fe/Mn), sediment provenance (Cr/Zr), and siliciclastic-dominated (Zr + Rb)/Sr. Adding a geochemistry element-based paleoenvironment analysis benefits from a more specific justification for GR-log facies interpretation.
利用地质测绘、岩相学、伽马射线(GR)测井、古生物学和有孔虫化石对波宗曼尼克地层的沉积环境进行了研究,得出了关于向海洋环境过渡的几种不同结论,这些结论具有重新审视的吸引力。本研究的预期成果是根据元素地球化学确定博宗曼尼克地层和瑟邦地层的古环境,在河流环境向过渡环境研究中开发基于便携式 X 射线荧光(pXRF)的古环境代用指标,以及古环境分析对 GR-log 岩相解释的贡献。研究方法从 GR-log面分析、皮尔逊相关性、基于元素亲和力和元素比率的古环境分析开始,并将古环境与基于 GR-log的面进行比较。基于元素地球化学的古环境分析结果表明,研究区域内的波宗曼尼克地层沉积于潮汐点棒、泻湖和海岸表层,而瑟邦地层沉积于河流点棒和洪泛平原。与之前的研究相比,研究区域内的博宗马尼克地层在地层上与上博宗马尼克地层有关联。基于碳酸盐相关元素、碳酸盐产状元素、地层相关元素和氧化还原敏感痕量元素的地球化学亲和性的代用指标显示了不同地层之间的对比变化。基于比值比的代用指标显示了古气候(Sr/Cu)、古盐度(Sr/Ba)、古氧化还原(Cu/Zn)、古流体力学和水深(Zr/Rb 和 Fe/Mn)、沉积物来源(Cr/Zr)和硅质岩为主(Zr + Rb)/Sr 的详细古环境。
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引用次数: 0
Remarkable Carapace Morphology of Nanhsiungchelys (Testudines: Nanhsiungchelyidae) Revealed by New Material from Ganzhou Basin, Jiangxi Province, China 中国江西省赣州盆地的新材料揭示了南雄蝶(蝶形目:南雄蝶科)的显著蝶面形态
Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.3390/geosciences14070184
Haiyan Tong, Lu Li, Yuzheng Ke, Yanyin Wang, Gongqing Jie, Laiping Yi
Two nanhsiungchelyid carapaces from the Upper Cretaceous of Ganzhou Basin, Jiangxi Province, Southern China, are reported and assigned to Nanhsiungchelys sp. The new material reveals an unusual carapace morphology that was either not or poorly preserved in previously known Nanhsiungchelys specimens, including differentiated neurals, alternating costals, significantly modified scutes with vertebrals 4–5 contacting each other at a point, reduced pleurals 2–4 and greatly expanded lateral and posterior marginals. The discovery extends the geographical distribution of Nanhsiungchelys to the Ganzhou Basin.
中国南方江西省赣州盆地上白垩世的两件南雄蜓类动物躯壳被发现,并被归入南雄蜓类(Nanhsiungchelys sp.)。 新材料揭示了一种不同寻常的躯壳形态,这种形态在以前已知的南雄蜓类标本中没有或保存较差,包括分化的神经节、交替的肋骨、明显改变的鳞片(椎骨4-5互相接触一点)、缩小的胸鳍2-4以及大大扩展的侧缘和后缘。这一发现将南雄龙的地理分布范围扩大到了赣州盆地。
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引用次数: 0
New Evidence for an Episode of Accelerated Environmental Change in the Late Barremian: Geochemical and Paleontological Records from the Subbetic Basin (Western Tethys) 巴里米亚晚期环境加速变化的新证据:来自亚贝特盆地(特提斯西部)的地球化学和古生物学记录
Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.3390/geosciences14070187
Ginés A. de Gea, J. M. Castro, M. Company, L. O’Dogherty, José Sandoval, María Luisa Quijano, Cristina Sequero, Sandro Froehner, R. Aguado
We investigate a new event of accelerated environmental change that was recorded during the late Barremian in the pelagic Subbetic Basin (Western Tethys). Two pelagic sections have been studied using a multi-proxy approach based on C-isotope stratigraphy and a high-resolution quantitative study of nannofossil assemblages, along with major and trace elements and biomarkers. Our results provide a detailed biostratigraphy and C-isotope stratigraphy, and outline the paleoenvironmental conditions recorded during the early stages of the Taxy Episode. A disturbance has been identified in the C-isotope record, called the IFeNE (Intra-Feradianus negative C-excursion), which is coeval with environmental and biotic changes that predate the well-known ISNE (Intra-Sarasini negative C-excursion). The combined analysis of nannofossil associations, C-isotopes, major and trace elements, and biomarker distributions indicates a separate episode of warming heralding the ISNE, resulting in the acceleration of the hydrological cycle and a consequent increase in continental inputs and the fertilization of surface waters. The origin of the Taxy Episode (the IFeNE and ISNE) has been related to orbital factors (high-eccentricity cycles), and to a global increase in volcanism, probably related to the early phases of the Ontong Java Plateau.
我们研究了在巴里米亚盆地(西特提斯)深海晚期发生的新的环境加速变化事件。我们采用基于 C-同位素地层学的多代理方法、对化石组合的高分辨率定量研究以及主要和痕量元素和生物标志物,对两个浮游剖面进行了研究。我们的研究结果提供了详细的生物地层学和 C-同位素地层学,并概述了 Taxy 事件早期记录的古环境条件。在 C-同位素记录中发现了一个干扰,称为 IFeNE(Intra-Feradianus 负 C-excursion),它与众所周知的 ISNE(Intra-Sarasini 负 C-excursion)之前的环境和生物变化同时发生。对化石组合、碳同位素、主要元素和痕量元素以及生物标志物分布的综合分析表明,在 ISNE 出现之前,曾发生过一次单独的气候变暖,导致水文循环加速,大陆输入量随之增加,地表水得到肥沃化。Taxy事件(IFeNE和ISNE)的起源与轨道因素(高偏心周期)和全球火山活动的增加有关,可能与翁通爪哇海台的早期阶段有关。
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引用次数: 0
Core Flooding Experiments on the Impact of CO2-EOR on the Petrophysical Properties and Oil Recovery Parameters of Reservoir Sandstones in Kazakhstan 哈萨克斯坦二氧化碳-EOR 对储层砂岩岩石物理特性和采油参数影响的岩心充水实验
Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.3390/geosciences14070185
A. Shabdirova, A. Kozhagulova, Yernazar Samenov, Rinat Merbayev, Ainur Niyazbayeva, Daryn Shabdirov
This study investigates the impact of CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) on the petrophysical properties and oil recovery potential of sandstone reservoirs in the oilfields located in the east-southern Precaspian region of Kazakhstan. Despite the recognized potential of CO2-EOR for improving oil recovery and aiding carbon sequestration, there is limited understanding of how CO2-EOR specifically affects the petrophysical properties of sandstone reservoirs in this region. Laboratory experiments were conducted using two core samples from the selected oilfields to examine changes in porosity, permeability, and oil recovery coefficients. The results demonstrated that porosity changes ranged from a slight increase of 1.1% to a decrease of 1.5%, while permeability reduction was significant, with decreases ranging from 29% to 50% due to clay alteration and halite precipitation. The oil recovery coefficient after CO2 flooding was found to be between 0.49 and 0.54. These findings underscore the complex interactions between CO2 and reservoir rocks, emphasizing the need for tailored EOR strategies in different geological settings.
本研究调查了二氧化碳提高石油采收率(CO2-EOR)对哈萨克斯坦前里海东部-南部地区油田砂岩储层岩石物理特性和石油采收潜力的影响。尽管 CO2-EOR 在提高石油采收率和帮助碳封存方面的潜力已得到公认,但人们对 CO2-EOR 如何具体影响该地区砂岩储层岩石物理特性的了解还很有限。我们使用来自选定油田的两个岩心样本进行了实验室实验,以研究孔隙度、渗透率和采油系数的变化。结果表明,孔隙度的变化范围从略微增加 1.1% 到减少 1.5%不等,而渗透率则由于粘土蚀变和海绿石沉淀而显著下降,降幅从 29% 到 50%不等。二氧化碳充注后的采油系数介于 0.49 和 0.54 之间。这些发现凸显了二氧化碳与储层岩石之间复杂的相互作用,强调了在不同地质环境下采取有针对性的 EOR 策略的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Mapping Seafloor Sediment Distributions Using Public Geospatial Data and Machine Learning to Support Regional Offshore Renewable Energy Development 利用公共地理空间数据和机器学习绘制海底沉积物分布图,支持区域近海可再生能源开发
Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.3390/geosciences14070186
Connor W. Capizzano, Alexandria C. Rhoads, Jennifer A. Croteau, Benjamin G. Taylor, M. Guarinello, Emily J. Shumchenia
Given the rapid expansion of offshore wind development in the United States (US), the accurate mapping of benthic habitats, specifically surficial sediments, is essential for mitigating potential impacts on these valuable ecosystems. However, offshore wind development has outpaced results from environmental monitoring efforts, compelling stakeholders to rely on a limited set of public geospatial data for conducting impact assessments. The present study therefore sought to develop and evaluate a systematic workflow for generating regional-scale sediment maps using public geospatial data that may pose integration and modeling challenges. To demonstrate this approach, sediment distributions were characterized on the northeastern US continental shelf where offshore wind development has occurred since 2016. Publicly available sediment and bathymetric data in the region were processed using national classification standards and spatial tools, respectively, and integrated using a machine learning algorithm to predict sediment occurrence. Overall, this approach and the generated sediment composite effectively predicted sediment distributions in coastal areas but underperformed in offshore areas where data were either scarce or of poor quality. Despite these shortcomings, this study builds on benthic habitat mapping efforts and highlights the need for regional collaboration to standardize seafloor data collection and sharing activities for supporting offshore wind energy decisions.
鉴于美国近海风能开发的快速扩张,底栖生物栖息地(尤其是表层沉积物)的精确测绘对于减轻对这些宝贵生态系统的潜在影响至关重要。然而,近海风电的发展速度已经超过了环境监测工作的成果,迫使利益相关者不得不依靠有限的公共地理空间数据来进行影响评估。因此,本研究试图开发和评估一个系统化的工作流程,利用可能带来整合和建模挑战的公共地理空间数据生成区域尺度的沉积物地图。为了演示这种方法,研究人员对美国东北部大陆架的沉积物分布进行了描述,自 2016 年以来,该大陆架一直在进行海上风电开发。该地区的公开沉积物和测深数据分别使用国家分类标准和空间工具进行处理,并使用机器学习算法进行整合,以预测沉积物的出现。总体而言,这种方法和生成的沉积物综合数据可有效预测沿海地区的沉积物分布,但在数据稀缺或质量较差的近海地区则表现不佳。尽管存在这些不足,但这项研究建立在底栖生物栖息地测绘工作的基础上,并强调了区域协作的必要性,以规范海底数据收集和共享活动,为海上风能决策提供支持。
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引用次数: 0
Domain Adaptation from Drilling to Geophysical Data for Mineral Exploration 从钻探数据到地球物理数据的矿产勘探领域调整
Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.3390/geosciences14070183
Youngjae Shin
This study utilizes domain adaptation to enhance the integration of diverse geoscience datasets, aiming to improve the identification of ore bodies. Traditional mineral exploration methods often face challenges in merging different geoscience data types, which leads to models that do not perform well across varying domains. Domain adaptation is a deep learning strategy aimed at adapting a model developed in one domain (source) to perform well in a different domain (target). To adapt models trained on detailed, labeled drilling data (source) to interpret broader, unlabeled geophysical data (target), Domain-Adversarial Neural Networks (DANNs) were applied, chosen for their robust performance in scenarios where the target domain does not provide labels. This approach was indirectly validated through the minimal overlap between regions identified as candidate ore and borehole locations marked as host rocks, with qualitative validation provided by t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) visualizations showing improved data integration across domains.
这项研究利用领域适应性来加强对不同地球科学数据集的整合,旨在改进矿体的识别。传统的矿产勘探方法在合并不同的地球科学数据类型时经常面临挑战,这导致模型在不同领域中表现不佳。领域适应是一种深度学习策略,旨在调整在一个领域(源)中开发的模型,使其在不同领域(目标)中表现良好。为了使在详细的、有标签的钻井数据(源)上训练的模型能够解释更广泛的、无标签的地球物理数据(目标),我们应用了领域对抗神经网络(DANNs),选择它们是因为它们在目标领域不提供标签的情况下具有强大的性能。这种方法通过被识别为候选矿石的区域与被标记为寄主岩的钻孔位置之间的最小重叠得到间接验证,t-分布式随机邻域嵌入(t-SNE)可视化提供了定性验证,显示出跨域数据整合的改进。
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引用次数: 0
Advancements in Soft Soil Stabilization by Employing Novel Materials through Response Surface Methodology 通过响应面方法使用新型材料推进软土稳定技术的发展
Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.3390/geosciences14070182
Pooja Somadas, Purushotham G. Sarvade, Deepak Nayak
Stabilization using industrial by-products is presently gaining importance in the construction sector for improving the geotechnical characteristics of soft soils. The optimum dosage of stabilisers has become of great interest to experimenters in terms of improved strength, time, and economy for construction projects. This work presents the utilization of biomedical waste ash for improving the strength of soft soil. In this paper, response surface methodology (RSM) was adopted to determine the optimum combination curing period (C) and biomedical waste ash (BA) quantity for attaining the maximum unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of soft soil and to reduce the number of trial tests required. The response factors C and BA were varied from 0 to 14 days and 4% to 20%, respectively, and the experiments were conducted according to the experimental plan provided by the RSM design. Based on a Face-centred Central Composite Design (FCCCD), a mathematical equation was created for the experimental results. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine the generated model’s significance, and the results indicated a statically significant model (p ≤ 0.05). The results revealed that the curing period imparts more influence towards strength improvement, and the optimum dosage was 19.912% BA, with curing of 14 days to yield a maximum UCS of 203.008 kPa. This optimization technique may be suggested to obtain a preliminary estimation of strength prior to stabilization.
使用工业副产品进行稳定化处理对改善软土的土工特性具有重要意义。实验人员对稳定剂的最佳用量非常感兴趣,因为它能提高建筑项目的强度、时间和经济性。本作品介绍了利用生物医疗废灰提高软土强度的方法。本文采用响应面法(RSM)来确定最佳的固化期(C)和生物医学废灰(BA)数量组合,以获得软土的最大无压抗压强度(UCS),并减少所需的试验测试次数。响应因子 C 和 BA 的变化范围分别为 0 至 14 天和 4% 至 20%,实验按照 RSM 设计提供的实验方案进行。根据面心中心复合设计(FCCCD),为实验结果建立了数学方程。采用方差分析(ANOVA)确定生成模型的显著性,结果表明模型具有统计学意义(p ≤ 0.05)。结果表明,固化期对强度改善的影响更大,最佳用量为 19.912% BA,固化期为 14 天,最大 UCS 为 203.008 kPa。这种优化技术可用于在稳定之前对强度进行初步评估。
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引用次数: 0
Marl Mining Activity and Negative Repercussions for Two Hillside Villages (Northern Italy) 泥灰岩开采活动及其对两个山坡村庄(意大利北部)的负面影响
Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.3390/geosciences14070181
F. Luino, S. Bonetto, Barbara Bono, C. Comina, William W. Little, Sabina Porfido, Paolo Sassone, L. Turconi
Coniolo and Brusaschetto, are two small towns located in the Monferrato area of the Alessandria Province, northern Italy. These communities have similar histories related to development and subsequent abandonment of marl quarry activity that began more than a century ago and continued until recently. Quarrying occurred until soil conditions, water infiltration, and excessive depth made cost of extracting and7 lifting material prohibitive. Quarries consisted of tunnels located directly beneath the towns at about 150 m below ground surface. Collapse of the tunnels led to surface subsidence and destruction of overlying homes and much of the municipal infrastructure. In the early Twentieth Century, regulations pertaining to mine and quarry safety were typically deficient, entirely absent, or not followed. Extractive activities of non-energy mineral resources from quarries and mines were and continue to be widespread in Italy, which currently ranks fifth among what are now countries of the European Union (EU). Mining sites are present in all regions of Italy, particularly in the northern part of the country and along coasts, often in areas of geohydrogeological risk. Consequences of anthropogenic pressures that alter the natural environment, such as the physical size of aquifer drawdowns, are linked to issues for a number of extractive sites across the country. This report analyzes historical and technical documents, conducts a geomorphological analysis of hilly slopes surrounding these communities, and examines urban planning and geophysical surveys to determine the impact of subsurface quarrying activities on the overlying ground surface. The study highlights significant problems that are applicable to other localities globally. This research demonstrates: (a) the importance of geological considerations to development and abandonment of mining activity in inhabited areas; (b) the importance of establishing and following safety protocols; and (c) the manner in which economic interests can take precedence over the well-being and lives of those employed to extract resources.
科尼奥洛和布鲁萨切托是位于意大利北部亚历山德里亚省蒙费拉托地区的两个小镇。这些社区有着相似的历史,都与一个多世纪前开始的泥灰岩采石活动的发展和随后的废弃有关,这种活动一直持续到最近。采石活动一直持续到土壤条件、水的渗透以及采石深度过大导致开采和7 提升材料的成本过高为止。采石场由位于城镇正下方、地表以下约 150 米处的隧道组成。隧道的坍塌导致地表下沉,摧毁了上覆的房屋和大部分市政基础设施。二十世纪初,有关矿山和采石场安全的法规通常不健全、完全缺失或未得到遵守。在意大利,从采石场和矿山开采非能源矿产资源的活动过去和现在都很普遍,目前在欧盟国家中排名第五。采矿点遍布意大利所有地区,尤其是北部地区和沿海地区,通常位于地质水文地质风险区域。人为压力改变自然环境的后果,如含水层缩减的物理尺寸,与全国各地一些采矿点的问题有关。本报告分析了历史和技术文件,对这些社区周围的丘陵斜坡进行了地貌分析,并研究了城市规划和地球物理勘测,以确定地下采石活动对上覆地表的影响。研究强调了适用于全球其他地方的重大问题。这项研究表明:(a) 地质因素对在有人居住的地区开发和放弃采矿活动的重要性;(b) 制定和遵守安全规程的重要性;(c) 经济利益可以优先于受雇开采资源者的福祉和生命的方式。
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引用次数: 0
A Comparative Study of Susceptibility and Hazard for Mass Movements Applying Quantitative Machine Learning Techniques—Case Study: Northern Lima Commonwealth, Peru 应用定量机器学习技术对大规模迁移的易感性和危害性进行比较研究--案例研究:秘鲁利马联邦北部
Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI: 10.3390/geosciences14060168
Edwin Badillo-Rivera, Manuel Olcese, Ramiro Santiago, Teófilo Poma, Neftalí Muñoz, Carlos Rojas-León, Teodosio Chávez, Luz Eyzaguirre, César Rodríguez, Fernando Oyanguren
This study addresses the importance of conducting mass movement susceptibility mapping and hazard assessment using quantitative techniques, including machine learning, in the Northern Lima Commonwealth (NLC). A previous exploration of the topographic variables revealed a high correlation and multicollinearity among some of them, which led to dimensionality reduction through a principal component analysis (PCA). Six susceptibility models were generated using weights of evidence, logistic regression, multilayer perceptron, support vector machine, random forest, and naive Bayes methods to produce quantitative susceptibility maps and assess the hazard associated with two scenarios: the first being El Niño phenomenon and the second being an earthquake exceeding 8.8 Mw. The main findings indicate that machine learning models exhibit excellent predictive performance for the presence and absence of mass movement events, as all models surpassed an AUC value of >0.9, with the random forest model standing out. In terms of hazard levels, in the event of an El Niño phenomenon or an earthquake exceeding 8.8 Mw, approximately 40% and 35% respectively, of the NLC area would be exposed to the highest hazard levels. The importance of integrating methodologies in mass movement susceptibility models is also emphasized; these methodologies include the correlation analysis, multicollinearity assessment, dimensionality reduction of variables, and coupling statistical models with machine learning models to improve the predictive accuracy of machine learning models. The findings of this research are expected to serve as a supportive tool for land managers in formulating effective disaster prevention and risk reduction strategies.
本研究探讨了在利马联邦北部(NLC)使用定量技术(包括机器学习)进行大规模移动易感性绘图和危害评估的重要性。之前对地形变量的研究表明,其中一些变量之间存在高度相关性和多重共线性,因此需要通过主成分分析(PCA)进行降维。利用证据权重法、逻辑回归法、多层感知器法、支持向量机法、随机森林法和天真贝叶斯法生成了六个易感性模型,以生成定量易感性地图,并评估与两种情况相关的危害:第一种情况是厄尔尼诺现象,第二种情况是超过 8.8 Mw 的地震。主要研究结果表明,机器学习模型在预测是否存在大规模移动事件方面表现出色,所有模型的 AUC 值均大于 0.9,其中随机森林模型表现突出。就危害程度而言,如果发生厄尔尼诺现象或超过 8.8 兆瓦的地震,国家陆地中心地区将分别有约 40% 和 35% 面临最高危害程度。研究还强调了在质量移动易感性模型中整合各种方法的重要性;这些方法包括相关性分析、多重共线性评估、变量降维以及将统计模型与机器学习模型相结合,以提高机器学习模型的预测准确性。这项研究的结果有望成为土地管理者制定有效防灾和降低风险战略的辅助工具。
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引用次数: 0
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Geosciences
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