Climate change threatens global agriculture through extreme weather and shifting growing conditions. Potatoes, a critical staple crop, face challenges like heat stress and water scarcity. Optimising agronomic practices, such as drip irrigation and film mulching, is critical to achieving climate-smart potato production and ensuring food security. During 2021–2100, the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model and the Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model were comprehensively used to assess the effects of drip irrigation with and without film mulching on potato yield and global warming potential (GWP) under different future climate scenarios in the main potato producing areas of northern China. The results indicated that the DNDC model could effectively predict potato growth and emissions of nitrous oxide and methane (adjusted R2 > 0.81, normalized root mean square error < 0.20). Compared to without film mulching (NM), the aboveground biomass and tuber yield were increased under drip irrigation with film mulch (TM), with the mean annual tuber yield of potatoes being 6.2 %-7.4 % higher under multiple emission scenarios. The GWP of TM increased by 1.1–1.4 times, and the net GWP offset decreased by 9.4 %-16.3 %. The MGWR analysis showed that precipitation had a significant positive effect on tuber yield in Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Ningxia, while temperature was the main negative influence on yield in Shaanxi. The main drivers of GWP were temperature and precipitation, with significant differences between regions. The findings provide a scientific basis for developing management strategies to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change on potato production, emphasizing the need to strike a balance between increasing yields and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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